Sunday, March 25, 2012

Event 3 - Match 5 - Board 2

Board 2
Our side vulnerable

♠ K Q 9 5 3 A Q 7 4 3 ♣ Q 10 5

Pass on my right. I open one spade. Partner raises to three spades, and I go on to four. West leads the five of hearts (fourth best).


NORTH
Jack
♠ 8 7 4
J 9 8 2
A J 4 2
♣ K 4






SOUTH
Phillip
♠ K Q 9 5 3
A Q 7 4
3
♣ Q 10 5



West North East South
Sam Jack Stephen Phillip
Pass 1 ♠
Pass 3 ♠ Pass 4 ♠
(All pass)

Three spades? With only three trumps? If partner judges his hand to be worth a limit raise, he should temporize with two diamonds. But this hand, with nine losers, looks like a two spade bid to me.

To make this I need to avoid a heart loser or to avoid a second spade loser. I play the heart nine--ten--queen. I still don't know if I have a heart loser or not. West might have king-six-five, or he might have a singleton five or five-three.

I need to set up a club ruff before playing trumps. So I play the five of clubs--deuce--king--ace. East shifts to the six of spades. East would surely have continued hearts, trying for a ruff, if he began with ten-three. So the heart king must be onside. I play the spade queen--ace--four. West plays the three of hearts--nine--six--four.

Apparently East doesn't have the jack of spades. Well, that may be overstating it. Sherlock Holmes always got away with such bold pronouncements. But perhaps I should be more cautious: There are indications that East doesn't have the jack of spades.

Since the opponents play fourth best leads, East knows his partner has a doubleton heart. So he knows it is safe to cover the jack of hearts. If he thought I wanted to play spades from the dummy, he would not make it so easy for me to do so. He would cover the heart jack, hoping that forcing me to win this trick my hand would cause me some inconvenience. If he holds the spade jack, he knows it is likely that I would prefer to lead spades from the dummy. So his failure to cover suggests he doesn't have it.

This inference is somewhat weaker playing against a computer than against a human. Jack, with a singleton jack or with jack-ten doubleton, knows I don't need to play spades from dummy. So he might not see the point of covering. A human, however, appreciates the fact that my double-dummy requirements are not relevant. Most of the time when I am missing the jack, I would want to start spades from the dummy whether or not I need to on the actual layout.

If trumps break, I'm home. I can cash the spade queen and ruff a club. If East has all the remaining spades, however, I need to take a double finesse to avoid losing two more trump tricks. I'm not too worried about that. In addition to the Sherlockian inference above, it's unlikely East would lead the six from jack-ten-six-deuce looking at eight-seven third in the dummy. (In this layout, since I must use one of dummy's trumps to ruff a club, retaining the six guarantees a second trump trick unless I magically duck out West's ace.) But sometimes defenders do foolish things. So if I can guard against a four-one break at no risk, I might as well do so.

Can I? I certainly can't take a double finesse before ruffing a club. If West has ace-jack-ten, he can win and play a third spade to stop the ruff. Can I afford to ruff a club first? Hardly. East might overruff and give his partner a heart ruff. A bad trump break is sufficiently unlikely that I'm not willing to take either one of thoses risks.

I play the eight of spades--ten--king--deuce. Good. I ruff a club and give up a spade. Making four.


NORTH
Jack
♠ 8 7 4
J 9 8 2
A J 4 2
♣ K 4


WEST
Sam
♠ A J 2
5 3
Q 9 8 6 5
♣ 7 3 2


EAST
Stephen
♠ 10 6
K 10 6
K 10 7
♣ A J 9 8 6


SOUTH
Phillip
♠ K Q 9 5 3
A Q 7 4
3
♣ Q 10 5


I see they could have beat this. All West had to do was lead a low spade at trick one. Our counterparts at the other table stopped sensibly in two spades and made three. So we pick up an undeserved ten imps.

I would have had a problem if, after winning the club ace, East had shifted to the three of hearts. Should I (A) hop, playing West for king-six-five, or should I (B) duck, playing West for a singleton five? A priori, a singleton heart is less likely than king third. But that isn't the only thing that matters. In addition to guessing hearts correctly, I must pick up trumps for one loser. If I choose (A) and I'm right, I need East's spades to be ace third, ace doubleton, or jack-ten doubleton. If I choose (B) and I'm right, I am very likely to be able to avoid a second trump loser (after West ruffs). East failed to open the bidding and has already shown up with the club ace. So, if he has king fourth of hearts, the spade ace is probably on my left. In that case, if I take my percentage play in spades, I will lose a second trump trick only if West began with ace-deuce, ace-six, or ace-jack-ten. Add to that the fact that West, if he has king third of hearts, might choose to lead something else but would rarely choose another lead with a singleton heart. All in all, (B) seems like the clear winner.

Table 1: +620
Table 2: -140

Result on Board 2: +10 imps
Total: +7 imps

Sunday, March 18, 2012

Event 3 - Match 5 - Board 1

Board 1
Neither vulnerable

♠ K J 10 8 K J 8 A 9 ♣ A K 8 5

Our new opponents, Sam and Stephen, play English Acol. I open one club. Sam makes an English Acol overcall of one heart, passed back to me. I bid one notrump. Ostensibly, this shows a hand where I would rebid two notrump had partner responded, but with a maximum strong notrump I might stretch a little. Sam isn't through yet. He bids two hearts--pass--pass. If partner thinks it's right to defend, I have no reason to overrule him. I pass. Partner leads the three of clubs (third and lowest).


NORTH
Stephen
♠ Q 6 5 4
2
8 7 6 5 3
♣ Q J 4




EAST
Phillip
♠ K J 10 8
K J 8
A 9
♣ A K 8 5


West North East South
Jack Stephen Phillip Sam
Pass Pass 1 ♣ 1
Pass Pass 1 NT 2
(All pass)

Declarer plays the jack from dummy. Partner would lead the ten from ten-nine, so declarer must have at least one of those cards. Since I'm marked with oodles of high cards, declarer would probably play low from dummy if he had just the nine. So I suspect declarer has the ten--probably ten third. He is hoping partner led from the king, in which case playing an honor from dummy guarantees a dummy entry.

This is the kind of problem computers are as yet unable to solve, because they assume the defenders are double-dummy. Since I am a heavy favorite to have both club honors, it must be better to play low from dummy at trick one to give me a problem. I can prevent a dummy entry by inserting the eight. But that would be a mistake if declarer has a doubleton club.

I would like partner to shift to a spade if he gets in, so I want to make a club continuation unattractive. Accordingly, I win with the ace rather than the king. Declarer thoughtfully plays the deuce, so I now know for sure that clubs are three-three.

If I can keep declarer off dummy, I have two heart tricks, two clubs tricks, and the diamond ace. So I need only one more trick. If declarer has a doubleton spade, I have that trick, assuming I can avoid being endplayed. Can I? Say I play ace and a diamond. Declarer wins and plays the club ten, which I must duck. If he plays another club, I must win and play a fourth club. This gives declarer a ruff-sluff. But so long as partner can beat dummy's trump spot, we're OK. I think partner should be able to beat dummy's trump spot.

If declarer has a singleton ace of spades, however, I will need to score two diamond tricks. In that case, my best defense is to exit with a spade, forcing declarer to break diamonds himself. That may seem like quite a position to take. But, in fact, declarer almost surely has a singleton in either spades or diamonds. With a 2-6-2-3 pattern and a good enough hand to bid a second time, he would probably double. And a singleton diamond is unlikely. The only singleton diamond declarer can have is the queen. With any other singleton, partner would have a natural diamond lead.

Essentially, I must decide which hand to cater to:

(A) ♠ A x A Q 10 x x x x Q ♣ 10 x x
or
(B) ♠ A A Q 10 x x x x K x ♣ 10 x x

(A) is more likely, since partner might have led a diamond from queen-jack-ten fourth. So, in (B), the only plausible diamond x's are the jack and the ten. In addition, I'm not even sure I can do anything about (B). Say I lead a spade. Declarer wins and exits with the heart ten. My only safe exit is the spade king. Declarer ruffs and plays ace and a heart. Now I'm endplayed. So if I play for (B), I need partner to have the heart ten. Clearly I'm better off playing for (A). And that's just as well. If I concluded I should shift to a spade and it turned out to be wrong, I would have a very hard time explaining that play to my teammates.

I play the diamond ace. Declarer plays the four; partner, the deuce. Declarer is probably 1-7-2-3. If I'm right that partner would have led a diamond from queen-jack-ten, then declarer's remaining diamond must be the queen.

I lead the diamond nine--queen--king. There! What did I tell you? Partner plays the jack of diamonds. I might need the fourth club for an exit, so I pitch the eight of spades. Declarer ruffs with the four of hearts.

Declarer makes a futile attempt to reach dummy by playing the nine of clubs to the queen. I take my king and play the club eight back to declarer's ten. Declarer plays the five of hearts, and partner plays the nine. What's this all about? If declarer is indeed 1-7-2-3, I should overtake and play a club in case partner has queen-nine of hearts. But why would declarer give me that chance? Why not just play ace and a heart instead of ducking one? Could it be wrong for me to overtake and play a club? Yes. If declarer made a flaky two heart bid with 2-6-2-3, he could ruff my club return with the heart queen, then play ace and heart to endplay me. That seems more likely than that declarer exposed himself to a trump promotion for no reason. So I play the eight of hearts.

Partner plays the ten of diamonds. I pitch spade jack. Declarer ruffs and leads the heart ten. I win with the jack and play a club. Declarer ruffs with the queen and cashes the heart ace. Partner follows with the nine, so I guess declarer is 2-6-2-3 after all. We get a spade trick for down two.


NORTH
Stephen
♠ Q 6 5 4
2
8 7 6 5 3
♣ Q J 4


WEST
Jack
♠ 9 7 2
9 6 3
K J 10 2
♣ 7 6 3


EAST
Phillip
♠ K J 10 8
K J 8
A 9
♣ A K 8 5


SOUTH
Sam
♠ A 3
A Q 10 7 5 4
Q 4
♣ 10 9 2



West North East South
Jack Stephen Phillip Sam
Pass Pass 1 ♣ 1
Pass Pass 1 NT 2
(All pass)

Nice crocodile coup, partner! Had partner failed to play the nine of hearts, I would have to win the trick with the eight. After I exit with my last club, ace and a heart would endplay me.

Declarer's two heart bid with 2-6-2-3 was foolish. Competing for a partscore shows a significant gain only when both contracts make. If that is unlikely, then the best result you can expect from competing is a virtual push: a small plus or a small minus at both tables. When the opponents are in one notrump and you have no singleton, chances are that if you make your contract, you are beating one notrump, so it usually wrong to compete without a singleton. An unbid six-card suit can be a reason to break this rule. But South had already shown his hearts, and North was unable to raise. So South knew he couldn't have a big heart fit.

Since one notrump makes and since partner didn't quite have a double, South's result is in the "virtual push" category. One notrump can be held to two on a passive defense, but it makes four after a normal heart lead (giving declarer an entry with the heart nine to play spades); so I expect to lose two imps. In fact, we lose three. Somehow declarer managed to score 210. South must have led hearts, then continued hearts out of sheer frustration when he was in with the spade ace.

Table 1: +100
Table 2: -210

Result on Board 1: -3 imps
Total: -3 imps


Sunday, March 11, 2012

Event 3 - Match 4 - Board 8

Board 8
Neither vulnerable

♠ Q 10 5 4 Q 10 K J 10 5 2 ♣ 6 2

The match is a tie going into the last board. Partner opens one club in second seat; RHO passes. I bid one spade, and partner bids two clubs. That seems high enough to me, and LHO agrees. RHO leads the six of hearts.


NORTH
Phillip
♠ Q 10 5 4
Q 10
K J 10 5 2
♣ 6 2






SOUTH
Jack
♠ K 2
A K 5 2
9 6
♣ K 10 8 4 3



West North East South
William Phillip Harry Jack
Pass 1 ♣
Pass 1 ♠ Pass 2 ♣
(All pass)

One notrump looks like a better spot than two clubs. This board demonstrates one of the downsides of weak notrumps: Partner can't rebid one notrump over one spade, since that shows 15-17 high-card points, so he has to rebid clubs with a bad five-card suit. Of course, if you strengthen partner's hand a bit, it is the strong notrumpers who have the rebid problem--and a considerably more difficult rebid problem at that.

What do I know about the opponents' hands? They have 19 high-card points between them. East passed in first seat, so he is limited to 11, giving West at least eight. West passed over one club non-vulnerable, so he is unlikely to have a five-card spade suit. (Personally, I would be unlikely to have a four-card spade suit.)

If I play the heart ten and it holds, I won't have the fourth-round heart loser to worry about. But if gets covered, I'm poorly placed. If I win and play a heart back to the queen, I've helped the opponents in two ways: I've given the opponents a tempo by releasing two of my heart stoppers. And, if hearts are five-two, I've set up a defensive ruff. If I try to get to dummy by playing a diamond instead, I open up the possibility of a defensive diamond ruff. The heart jack is a slight favorite to be on my right (since jack third or fourth would be an unattractive lead), so I choose not to risk the ten. I rise with the queen; East plays the three.

East would presumably encourage with the jack. So, unless East has jack-three doubleton, it appears I did the wrong thing. I'd just as soon West not continue hearts when he gains the lead, so I "discourage" by playing the deuce.

I play the deuce of clubs from dummy; East plays the seven. That's a nice card to see, since it brings dummy's six into play. I play the eight. West wins with the nine and shifts to the four of hearts--ten--jack--ace. I guess I did the right thing at trick one after all. It appears East has jack-three doubleton and West has five small. The opponents lead fourth best, so six, four is consistent with a five-card suit.

It's possible hearts are two-five instead of five-two, but there are two reasons that is less likely: One, as I've already mentioned, is East's failure to encourage at trick one. The other reason involves a principle of probability that is often overlooked. Sometimes when West has a doubleton heart, his higher heart will be too high to be a plausible fourth best. So his lead from a doubleton will be ambiguous only part of the time. His lead from a five-card suit will always be ambiguous. It will always be possible for his fourth best card to be top of a doubleton. Thus the very fact that there is an ambiguity means that he is more likely to have five hearts than to have two. This is the bridge version of the anthropic principle.

I need to get to dummy to play another club, so I lead the six of diamonds. West plays the four. Finding the ace onside is not as useful as finding the queen onside. I'm going to need to do something with my fourth heart. If the diamond queen is onside, I may be able to pitch the heart on the third round of diamonds. Accordingly, I play the jack. East wins with the ace. That's a bit unexpected. If East knew I had a doubleton diamond, he would probably duck, making it harder for me to score a second diamond trick. Perhaps he couldn't read his partner's card. That would be true only if West has a doubleton. In that case, East would be unable to tell whether West has queen-four or queen-nine-four.

East shifts to the nine of hearts. So I was wrong about the heart split. Anthropic principle notwithstanding, West did have six-four doubleton, and East, for some reason, did not encourage with jack-nine-eight fifth.

That means West is 5-2-2-4. But that's impossible. Why didn't he overcall one spade? Perhaps I'm wrong about the doubleton diamond. Maybe East chose to win the diamond despite knowing I have a doubleton in order to give his partner a heart ruff. Assuming West would give honest count with queen fourth of diamonds, he must be either 5-2-3-3 or 4-2-3-4. (He might have overcalled one spade with 5-2-3-3. But that's not nearly so attractive a pattern as 5-2-2-4, so I'm not as confident in ruling that pattern out.)

Should I play the deuce or the king on this trick? In order to make this, I must dispose of my heart loser and I must avoid losing more than two trump tricks. Playing the deuce aids in the first goal but makes it harder to achieve the second. West can pitch a diamond, forcing me to ruff with dummy's club six. I will now need considerable luck to avoid losing three trump tricks. Playing the king aids in the second goal, since it forces West to ruff, but makes it harder to avoid a heart loser. If East has an entry, the opponents can now draw dummy's trump and cash a heart trick.

To decide which play works more often, general principles will not help. I must examine specific cases. I'll start by assuming West is 4-2-3-4. In that case, if East has either black ace, I must lose three trump tricks. West can ruff this trick with the queen or jack. If East has the club ace, West leads a trump to East and gets a second ruff. If East has the spade ace, West cashes the club ace and leads a spade to East for a second heart ruff.

So if West is 4-2-3-4, I must hope he has both black aces. Is there any way to make it if he does? If I play low on this trick, West can pitch a diamond, letting me ruff in dummy with the club six. He will now have three natural trump tricks. So a low heart does not work. What happens if I play the king? (1) If West ruffs low, I overruff in dummy and lose only two trump tricks. (2) If West ruffs with the queen or jack, I can lead the club king to smother East's honor and lose only two trump tricks. (3) If West pitches, I lead the spade king. Say West wins and plays the diamond queen, putting me in dummy. I can now cash the spade queen and ruff a spade to reach this position (West's side card could be either a spade or a diamond, depending on what he discarded on the heart king):


NORTH
Phillip
♠ 10
--
10 5
♣ 6


WEST
William
♠ x
--
--
♣ A J 5


EAST
Harry
♠ --
8 7
x
♣ Q


SOUTH
Jack
♠ --
2
--
♣ K 10 4


When I lead the heart deuce, West is dead. If he ruffs (with the jack or low), I lose only two trump tricks. If he pitches his side card, I can ruff in dummy, then ruff a diamond to my hand. If West overruffs, he is endplayed. So, if West is 4-2-3-4, I must play the heart king and must hope West has both black aces.

What if West is 5-2-3-3? If West has the club ace, I can always hold my trump losses to two tricks. I may have some guessing to do later on, but it makes no difference which heart I play to this trick. What if East has the club ace? If I play a low heart, West can pitch a diamond. I ruff in dummy and must lose two trump tricks and a ruff. And if I play the king? West ruffs with the queen or jack and plays a club to his partner's ace. East can now cash a heart. So it makes no difference which heart I play. I'm down either way.

The king, then, allows me to make the contract whenever it can be made. Although, later on, I may have to guess whether to duck out the club ace on my left or play East to have a singleton honor. I play the heart king, and West ruffs with the jack of clubs. I pitch a diamond from dummy. West cashes the spade ace. East plays the six. It might be nice to have a second dummy entry just in case I'm wrong about three-three diamonds, so I unblock the king. West plays the nine of spades. I win in dummy with the queen as East plays the seven. As the opponents have defended, no club guess is necessary. I play dummy's six of clubs--queen--king--ace. West exits with the eight of spades; East plays the jack. I ruff and draw the last trump. I don't need to repeat the diamond finesse. Dummy's spade ten provides a pitch for the heart.


NORTH
Phillip
♠ Q 10 5 4
Q 10
K J 10 5 2
♣ 6 2


WEST
William
♠ A 9 8 3
6 4
Q 8 4
♣ A J 9 5


EAST
Harry
♠ J 7 6
J 9 8 7 3
A 7 3
♣ Q 7


SOUTH
Jack
♠ K 2
A K 5 2
9 6
♣ K 10 8 4 3


Not a very good defense. East could beat me by ducking the diamond ace, which seems pretty routine. Since he has no second entry and can't give West two heart ruffs, what's the hurry? In fact, it must be better to wait until dummy's club is gone before playing hearts. So ducking seems like a good idea all around. After East did win the diamond ace and play a heart, West should have pitched a diamond rather than ruff. As we saw, that doesn't beat me by force, but it makes things much harder for me. That play, too, should be fairly routine. Ruffing with a natural trump trick is seldom a good idea.

Our counterparts at the other table reached the easier contract of two diamonds and made two. So the match ends in a tie. We score 15 victory points. We are still in the lead, but by a mere three victory points.


Table 1: +90
Table 2: -90

Result on Board 8: 0 imps

Result on Match 4: 0 imps (15 VP)
Current Total: 73 VP

Sunday, March 4, 2012

Event 3 - Match 4 - Board 7

Board 7
Both sides vulnerable

♠ Q 9 6 K 8 7 5 3 10 2 ♣ Q J 2

I pass in first seat. LHO and partner pass, and RHO opens one club. I don't see much point in overcalling. I pass. LHO bids one diamond, and RHO bids two notrump (18-19 HCP, no four-card major). LHO bids three clubs (natural), and RHO bids three notrump, which ends the auction. I lead the five of hearts.


NORTH
Harry
♠ 10 5 3
J 9
Q 9 8 7
♣ K 8 6 4


WEST
Phillip
♠ Q 9 6
K 8 7 5 3
10 2
♣ Q J 2




West North East South
Phillip Harry Jack William
Pass Pass Pass 1 ♣
Pass 1 Pass 2 NT
Pass 3 ♣ Pass 3 NT
(All pass)

Partner has seven or eight high-card points, at least four spades, and at least three hearts. Declarer plays the jack from dummy, partner plays the queen, and declarer plays the ten. Declarer would not be ducking this trick with ace-ten third, so he must have ace-ten doubleton.

It appears we are going to beat this. Since partner has five or six high card points in addition to the heart queen, I don't see how declarer can take nine tricks without giving up the lead. Partner casts a cloud over my optimism, however, by shifting to the deuce of spades. Declarer plays the ace.

What's this all about? It makes no sense for partner not to continue hearts from queen fourth. He must have made a discovery play with ace-queen of hearts at trick one. He knows hearts are running, but, for some reason, he thinks it's a bad idea to run them. Perhaps he is afraid we will be squeezed if we cash out the hearts. Or perhaps he is afraid I won't have a safe exit.

Partner would surely cash out the hearts if he knew I had five. Since the opponents play that declarer's two notrump rebid denies a four-card major, partner would know I had five hearts if he had ace-queen third. So he must have ace-queen fourth.

I'm not happy with this development. But that doesn't mean I should discourage in spades just to express my displeasure. Partner has already shifted. What matters now is: Do I want him to continue spades or not when he gets in again? If declarer can cash four diamonds (which would bring him up to eight tricks), I may be in trouble, especially if partner doesn't have the spade jack. I will need to pitch two hearts on the third and fourth diamonds. If declarer exits with a heart, trying for a fratricide squeeze, partner must win and play another spade. After that, nothing bad can happen. (Assuming I've kept a low heart as an exit. So the two hearts I discard must be the king and the eight or seven.) To clue partner in to this plan, I encourage with the nine of spades.

Declarer plays the three of diamonds--deuce--queen--ace. Ace? You mean partner doesn't have the heart ace? Apparently not. He shifts to the deuce of hearts, and declarer plays the ace. I unblock the seven of hearts to maintian flexiblity. I can reach partner by leading a heart to his six if it proves necessary.

Declarer cashes the diamond king; partner plays the five. He then cashes the spade king. I'm pretty sure partner has the jack, but there is no need to unblock so long as we have communication in hearts. I play the six. Partner follows with the four.

Declarer leads the five of clubs. If I didn't have an exit card, I would have to play low on this trick, since splitting would leave me open to an endplay. It probably won't hurt to play low. Unless declarer has seen my hand, he isn't playing the club eight. But, to guard against good peripheral vision, I play the club jack. Declarer wins with the king, as partner follows with the deuce. Declarer plays a club to his ace, and partner pitches the diamond six. Declarer appears to be 3-2-3-5. His remaining diamond must be the four, since he would not have blocked the diamonds with king-jack third. So we must have the rest. And indeed we do. Down three.


NORTH
Harry
♠ 10 5 3
J 9
Q 9 8 7
♣ K 8 6 4


WEST
Phillip
♠ Q 9 6
K 8 7 5 3
10 2
♣ Q J 2


EAST
Jack
♠ J 7 4 2
Q 6 4 2
A J 6 5
♣ 3


SOUTH
William
♠ A K 8
A 10
K 4 3
♣ A 10 9 7 5


I'm not sure why partner switched to a spade at trick two. But we seem to have gained a trick as a result. After a heart continuation, declarer would try to run clubs and would wind up down two. After the spade switch, declarer decided it made sense to attack diamonds first. And perhaps it does. If clubs are running, it makes no difference. If he happens to get lucky and establish three diamond tricks, he might wind up making his contract even if clubs don't come home. Still, once the jack or ten of diamonds didn't appear on the first round of the suit, it seems he should have abandoned that plan. He still had time to switch to clubs and hold this to down two.

Our teammates did finish down two in the same contract, so we pick up three imps and tie the match with one board left. The VuGraph audience is going wild.

Table 1: +300
Table 2: -200

Result on Board 7: +3 imps
Total: 0 imps