tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6167918454701652348.post1655873401647026107..comments2024-03-11T11:29:56.577-04:00Comments on The Gargoyle Chronicles: A DigressionPhillip Martinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12686740850642509457noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6167918454701652348.post-64447376316568701082013-01-06T22:25:08.420-05:002013-01-06T22:25:08.420-05:00You can come fairly close to this table by two app...You can come fairly close to this table by two approximations.<br />First card: 40-30-20-10<br />Second card: equally likely among choices which don't involve playing a non-touching lower card.Alan Frankhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02568148342275275343noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6167918454701652348.post-5935360053664068762010-06-05T22:36:15.373-04:002010-06-05T22:36:15.373-04:00Len: He's not entitled to 33%. He's entit...Len: He's not entitled to 33%. He's entitled to 67% (2 wins out of 3) by finessing whenever you drop an honor. Playing Q from QJ 80% time doesn't change that. Declarer should still finesse if you drop an honor and he still wins 2 cases out of 3. This is because it is better to pick up 100% of the singleton queens than to pick up 80% of the queen-jacks. If you drop the queen more then 93.75% of the time, however, then declarer CAN get an edge. A specific singleton is 93.75% as likely as a specific doubleton, so that is the critical point. If declarer knows you play the queen more often than 93.75% of the time, it becomes right for him to play for the drop when he sees the queen.Phillip Martinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12686740850642509457noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6167918454701652348.post-62108427812677475822010-06-05T14:54:57.055-04:002010-06-05T14:54:57.055-04:00In many situations declarers play you for the firs...In many situations declarers play you for the first time, or even if you've come across them before that particular card holding is a first time experience, so there no where declarer can get any feel or table presence about what you actually hold. Moreover if declarer does know you to be on the random side ( in an attempt to reveal nothing ) he's back to guessing yet again. Many might look for tells, but if you are not want for telling.....then he's still in the dark. Yours howard Bigot Johnson. Nice article.Howard Bigot-Johnsonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07509161617229149303noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6167918454701652348.post-89484920850317931862010-06-04T19:56:28.895-04:002010-06-04T19:56:28.895-04:00You write "you play the queen from queen-jack...You write "you play the queen from queen-jack doubleton 80% of the time and declarer knows that. If he plays for the drop, he wins 80% of the time that you were dealt queen-jack doubleton."<br />That means you're assuming he finesses whenever he sees the jack (the opposite of the fool from your next example).<br /><br />You say declarer can't gain an advantage (unless you go over 93.75%) but that's not right. You mean that he can't go right over 50% of the time. Any percentage above his entitled 33% or so is an advantage. And there's nothing magical about 93.75% (except that it crosses the 50% expectation line). The accrual to declarer when you switch from playing your queen 65% of the time to 80% of the time is exactly the same as switching from 80% to 95%, even though it crosses the 93.75% border.Lenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03461237726987136604noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6167918454701652348.post-5308716686703294212010-06-03T18:27:52.960-04:002010-06-03T18:27:52.960-04:00Thanks for putting the whipped cream and cherry on...Thanks for putting the whipped cream and cherry on my 2nd post, where I cleaned up my first quite a bit. BTW, I am very sure you have the math close enough for all practical purposes, and much cleaner than my first ramble.<br /><br />I have one teeny weeny piece to add - If you have played 9-Q from QJ109, and declarer next decides to play low from hand, you MUST win the Jack in case declarer would pitch differently from dummy depending on whether you had 3 or 4 spades.CraigBhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04020709678426937691noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6167918454701652348.post-8969263148341638712010-06-03T16:19:03.234-04:002010-06-03T16:19:03.234-04:00Seconded. Please feel free to post such digression...Seconded. Please feel free to post such digressions at any time (not that my opinion matters!)Michael Alberthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06406323435945694109noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6167918454701652348.post-85541370935475109492010-06-03T12:21:22.059-04:002010-06-03T12:21:22.059-04:00*LIKE**LIKE*Paul Gipsonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13564960646170455536noreply@blogger.com