tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-61679184547016523482024-03-17T23:01:50.957-04:00The Gargoyle ChroniclesA series of bridge hands where everyone at the table except me is a robot. The recent hands are all from BBO tournaments, where your results are compared with around 1000 other players. To decrease the chance you will have no interesting decisions, you are always dealt the hand with the most high-card points.Phillip Martinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12686740850642509457noreply@blogger.comBlogger429125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6167918454701652348.post-81171172817108641442024-03-17T13:18:00.000-04:002024-03-17T13:18:48.310-04:00Free Weekly Instant Tournament - January 18 - Board 8
<p style="font-weight: bold; text-align: left;">
<a href="https://www.bridgebase.com/tools/handviewer.html?lin=pn|PSMartin,~~M18008i2,~~M18475xu,~~M18773k1|st||md|2SHAKQ8DAJT873CAJ6,SA9532HT7DKQ94CK7,SQJ84H94D652CT932,SKT76HJ6532DCQ854|sv|o|rh||ah|Board%208|mb|1S|an|Major%20suit%20opening%20--%205+%20!S;%2011-21%20HCP;%2012-22%20total%20points%20|mb|P|mb|2S|an|Simple%20raise%20--%203+%20!S;%207-10%20total%20points%20|mb|D|an|Takeout%20double%20--%203+%20!C;%203+%20!D;%204+%20!H;%202-%20!S;%2013+%20total%20points|mb|P|mb|3C|an|4+%20!C;%2010-%20total%20points%20|mb|3S|an|The%20Law:%209%20trump%20-%3E%203%20level%20--%204+%20!S;%207-10%20total%20points%20|mb|4D|an|rebiddable%20!D;%2018+%20total%20points|mb|D|an|5+%20!S;%2016-21%20HCP;%20biddable%20!D;%2022-%20total%20points%20|mb|P|mb|P|mb|P|pc|HT|pc|H9|pc|H2|pc|HQ|pc|HA|pc|H7|pc|H4|pc|H5|pc|H8|pc|S2|pc|D2|pc|HJ|pc|D5|pc|S7|pc|DT|pc|DQ|pc|S3|pc|SJ|pc|SK|pc|D3|pc|D7|pc|D9|pc|D6|pc|C8|pc|SA|pc|S4|pc|S6|pc|D8|pc|DA|pc|D4|pc|C2|pc|H6|pc|DJ|pc|DK|pc|C3|pc|H3|pc|S5|pc|SQ|pc|ST|pc|C6|pc|C9|pc|C4|pc|CA|pc|C7|pc|HK|pc|S9|pc|S8|pc|C5|pc|CJ|pc|CK|pc|CT|pc|CQ|
">
Board 8</a><br />Neither side vulnerable</p>
<table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="width: 300px;"><tbody><tr><td align="center" width="100%">♠ -- <span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> A K Q 8 <span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> A J 10 8 7 3 ♣ A J 6 </td></tr></tbody></table>
<p>
The auction begins one spade--pass--two spades to me.
</p><p>
I have two options. I can double, intending to follow with some number of diamonds if partner can't bid hearts. Or I can bid three diamonds, intending to double on the next round. As a general rule, you should
time your auctions so that they end with double. That way, you aren't committed to offense. If you bid then double, partner can pass if the hand is a misfit. If you double then bid, partner doesn't have the option of defending. </p><p>
With this hand, however, there are problems with the bid-then-double approach. For one thing, if I bid three diamonds, I can't be sure of getting another chance to act. I may buy it in three diamonds cold for four hearts.
For another, even if I do get a chance to double on the next round, we may still miss a heart fit. Partner may be worried I have only three hearts and may elect to support diamonds rather than bid a weak four-card heart suit.</p><p>
I do have quite a good hand for offense: four losers and a good suit, so I'm not too worried about taking away partner's option to defend. I'll go for the double-then-bid approach.
</p><p>
I double, LHO passes, partner bids three clubs, and RHO bids three spades. I bid four diamonds as planned. To my surprise, LHO doubles. Everyone passes. and LHO leads the ten of hearts.
</p>
<div align="center"><table><tbody>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">NORTH<br />
<i>Robot</i><br />
♠ Q J 8 4<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> 9 4<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> 6 5 2<br />
♣ 10 9 3 2<br />
<br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">SOUTH<br />
<i>Phillip</i><br />
♠ --<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> A K Q 8<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> A J 10 8 7 3<br />
♣ A J 6<br />
<br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
</tbody></table></div>
<table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="width: 300px;">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td align="direction in globals.directions:left" width="25%"><b>West</b></td>
<td align="direction in globals.directions:left" width="25%"><b>North</b></td>
<td align="direction in globals.directions:left" width="25%"><b>East</b></td>
<td align="direction in globals.directions:left" width="25%"><b>South</b></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="25%"><i>Robot</i></td>
<td align="left" width="25%"><i>Robot</i></td>
<td align="left" width="25%"><i>Robot</i></td>
<td align="left" width="25%"><i>Phillip</i></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="25%">1 ♠</td>
<td align="left" width="25%">Pass</td>
<td align="left" width="25%">2 ♠</td>
<td align="left" width="25%">Double</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="25%">Pass</td>
<td align="left" width="25%">3 ♣</td>
<td align="left" width="25%">3 ♠</td>
<td align="left" width="25%">4 <span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="25%">Double</td>
<td align="left" width="25%">(All pass)</td>
<td align="left" width="25%"> </td>
<td align="left" width="25%"> </td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<p>
LHO probably has all the outstanding diamonds for his double. And RHO has four spades for his three-spade bid. So LHO is either 5-2-4-2 or 5-1-4-3. He probably would have led a spade from ace-king, so I'll
assume East has a spade honor. With his diamond void, East doesn't need any other high cards. So West could have one or both club honors.
</p><p>With the bad trump break, I have five losers, not four: three diamonds and two clubs. So I can't see making this. But if I can get West to break clubs for me, I'll avoid one of those losers and get out for down one.
</p><p>
I unblock the nine of hearts from dummy. East plays the deuce, and I win with the queen.
</p><p>
I need to ruff a heart in dummy, so I cash the heart ace. If West ruffs, I don't mind. It's with a natural trump trick. He doesn't ruff. He follows with the heart seven; East, with the five. So West is 5-2-4-2.
</p><p>
Now a low heart. West declines to ruff in front of dummy.
He pitches the spade deuce instead. I ruff in dummy and lead a diamond. East shows out as expected, pitching the spade seven. I play the ten, losing the the queen. Here is the presumed position:</p>
<div align="center"><table><tbody>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">NORTH<br />
<i>Robot</i><br />
♠ Q J 8 4<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> --<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> 6<br />
♣ 10 9 3 2<br />
<br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125">WEST<br />
<i>Robot</i><br />
♠ H x x x<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> --<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> K 9 4<br />
♣ ? ?<br />
<br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">EAST<br />
<i>Robot</i><br />
♠ H x x<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> x x<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> --<br />
♣ ? ? ? ?<br />
<br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">SOUTH<br />
<i>Phillip</i><br />
♠ --<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> K<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> A J 8 7 3<br />
♣ A J 6<br />
</td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
</tbody></table></div>
<p>West can't afford to play a diamond or a club.
So he perforce switches to a small spade, the three. I play the jack from dummy. East covers with the king, and I ruff. Now the seven of diamonds endplays West again. He wins with the nine as East discards the eight of clubs. We've reached this position:</p>
<div align="center"><table><tbody>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">NORTH<br />
<i>Robot</i><br />
♠ Q 8 4<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> --<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> --<br />
♣ 10 9 3 2<br />
<br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125">WEST<br />
<i>Robot</i><br />
♠ A x x<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> --<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> K 4<br />
♣ ? ?<br />
<br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">EAST<br />
<i>Robot</i><br />
♠ x x<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> x x<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> --<br />
♣ ? ? ?<br />
<br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">SOUTH<br />
<i>Phillip</i><br />
♠ --<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> K<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> A J 8<br />
♣ A J 6<br />
</td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
</tbody></table></div>
<p>Again, West can't
afford a trump or a club, so he exits with the ace of spades. I ruff. Now ace and jack of diamonds endplays him a third time:</p>
<div align="center"><table><tbody>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">NORTH<br />
<i>Robot</i><br />
♠ Q 8<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> --<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> --<br />
♣ 10 9<br />
<br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125">WEST<br />
<i>Robot</i><br />
♠ x x<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> --<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> --<br />
♣ ? ?<br />
<br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">EAST<br />
<i>Robot</i><br />
♠ x<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> --<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> --<br />
♣ ? ? ?<br />
<br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">SOUTH<br />
<i>Phillip</i><br />
♠ --<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> K<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> --<br />
♣ A J 6<br />
</td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
</tbody></table></div>
<p>West must lead either a club, giving me a club trick, or a spade, giving me dummy's
spade queen. He chooses a spade. I pitch one of my club losers on the spade queen and finish down one.
</p>
<div align="center"><table><tbody>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">NORTH<br />
<i>Robot</i><br />
♠ Q J 8 4<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> 9 4<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> 6 5 2<br />
♣ 10 9 3 2<br />
<br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125">WEST<br />
<i>Robot</i><br />
♠ A 9 5 3 2<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> 10 7<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> K Q 9 4<br />
♣ K 7<br />
<br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">EAST<br />
<i>Robot</i><br />
♠ K 10 7 6<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> J 6 5 3 2<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> --<br />
♣ Q 8 5 4<br />
<br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">SOUTH<br />
<i>Phillip</i><br />
♠ --<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> A K Q 8<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> A J 10 8 7 3<br />
♣ A J 6<br />
</td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
</tbody></table></div>
<p>
Most players in four diamonds doubled went down two. Some got higher. Minus 100 is worth 68%.
</p><p>
The reason this result isn't better is that some doubled two spades, then doubled again over three spades and played it there. That worked out fine this time, but it strikes me as an awfully dangerous way to live. We can argue about whether it's right to bid diamonds
now or later, but not bidding them at all makes no sense to me. How can you expect partner to make an intelligent play-or-defend decision when you have good six-card suit you haven't told him about?
<br /><br />Be sure to play this week's Free Weekly Instant Tournament by Thursday. We can start comparing results next week.</p>Phillip Martinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12686740850642509457noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6167918454701652348.post-58196851251825075732024-03-10T13:40:00.000-04:002024-03-10T13:40:31.434-04:00Free Weekly Instant Tournament - January 18 - Board 7
<p style="font-weight: bold; text-align: left;">
<a href="https://www.bridgebase.com/tools/handviewer.html?lin=pn|PSMartin,~~M18008i2,~~M18475xu,~~M18773k1|st||md|1SAQ4H963DT863CAQ5,SJT8HT84DQ742CK76,S953HKQJ2DA5CJT98,SK762HA75DKJ9C432|sv|b|rh||ah|Board%207|mb|1D|an|Minor%20suit%20opening%20--%203+%20!D;%2011-21%20HCP;%2012-22%20total%20points|mb|P|mb|1H|an|One%20over%20one%20--%204+%20!H;%206+%20total%20points%20|mb|P|mb|1N|an|2-5%20!C;%204-5%20!D;%202-3%20!H;%202-3%20!S;%2012-14%20HCP|mb|P|mb|2N|an|4%20!H;%2011-12%20HCP%20|mb|P|mb|P|mb|P|pc|S8|pc|S3|pc|SK|pc|S4|pc|S6|pc|SQ|pc|SJ|pc|S5|pc|H6|pc|H4|pc|HK|pc|H7|pc|C8|pc|C2|pc|CQ|pc|CK|pc|D4|pc|D5|pc|DK|pc|D6|pc|D9|pc|D3|pc|D7|pc|DA|pc|C9|pc|C3|pc|CA|pc|C6|pc|C5|pc|C7|pc|CJ|pc|C4|pc|CT|pc|S7|pc|H3|pc|H8|pc|S9|pc|S2|pc|SA|pc|ST|pc|H9|pc|HT|pc|HJ|pc|HA|pc|DJ|pc|D8|pc|D2|pc|H2|pc|H5|pc|DT|pc|DQ|pc|HQ|
">
Board 7</a><br />Both sides vulnerable</p>
<table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="width: 300px;"><tbody><tr><td align="center" width="100%">♠ A Q 4 <span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> 9 6 3 <span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> 10 8 6 3 ♣ A Q 5 </td></tr></tbody></table>
<p>
I open with one diamond in first seat. Partner bids one heart and I rebid one notrump. Partner raises to two. Even though I have only 12 HCP, I do have three honor tricks, which is a maximum by some
standards. Still, 4-3-3-3 is a minus, and I have no fitting card in partner's suit. So I suppose I should decline the invitation. I pass, and LHO leads the spade eight.
</p>
<div align="center"><table><tbody>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">NORTH<br />
<i>Robot</i><br />
♠ 9 5 3<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> K Q J 2<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> A 5<br />
♣ J 10 9 8<br />
<br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">SOUTH<br />
<i>Phillip</i><br />
♠ A Q 4<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> 9 6 3<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> 10 8 6 3<br />
♣ A Q 5<br />
<br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
</tbody></table></div>
<table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="width: 300px;">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td align="direction in globals.directions:left" width="25%"><b>West</b></td>
<td align="direction in globals.directions:left" width="25%"><b>North</b></td>
<td align="direction in globals.directions:left" width="25%"><b>East</b></td>
<td align="direction in globals.directions:left" width="25%"><b>South</b></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="25%"><i>Robot</i></td>
<td align="left" width="25%"><i>Robot</i></td>
<td align="left" width="25%"><i>Robot</i></td>
<td align="left" width="25%"><i>Phillip</i></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="25%"> </td>
<td align="left" width="25%"> </td>
<td align="left" width="25%"> </td>
<td align="left" width="25%">1 <span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="25%">Pass</td>
<td align="left" width="25%">1 <span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span></td>
<td align="left" width="25%">Pass</td>
<td align="left" width="25%">1 NT</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="25%">Pass</td>
<td align="left" width="25%">2 NT</td>
<td align="left" width="25%">(All pass)</td>
<td align="left" width="25%"> </td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<p>
I can take three clubs, two spades, two hearts, and a diamond. Eight tricks unless the opponents can take six first. The spade eight looks like top of a doubleton. So I must duck the first spade to maximize
the chance that I can keep the opponents from establishing and running the suit. The diamond suit does represent a danger. But that's the suit I opened, so it may be hard for the opponents to attack that suit.
</p><p>
I play low from dummy, East plays the king, and I duck. East continues with the six of spades. I win with the queen (the card West knows I hold) and West drops the jack. The jack? Apparently West led low from jack-ten-eight rather than top of his sequence.</p><p>
I play the six of hearts, concealing the three, to dummy's king. West plays the four; East, the seven. If the club king is onside, I've made this. I can take three clubs and establish another heart for my eighth trick. What if the club king is offside?</p><p>Let's say I ride the jack of clubs and it loses to the
king. West switches to a diamond. I duck one round and win the second round. Since clubs are blocked, I can cash only two club tricks, reaching this position:</p>
<div align="center"><table><tbody>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">NORTH<br />
<i>Robot</i><br />
♠ 9<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> Q J 2<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> --<br />
♣ 8<br />
<br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">SOUTH<br />
<i>Phillip</i><br />
♠ A<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> 9 3<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> 10 8<br />
♣ --<br />
</td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
</tbody></table></div>
<p>I need three of the last five tricks. I lead a heart. The opponents win the heart ace,
cash whatever diamonds they can, and I have the rest. If they can take only one more diamond trick, I've made my contract. If they can take two, I'm down one.
If they can take three, I'm down two.
</p><p>
If I don't block the clubs, I can cash three club tricks, ensuring I can't go down more than one. Maybe floating the jack of clubs is a bad idea.
</p><p>What happens if I lead a club to the queen? If the king is onside, it makes no difference. I can repeat the finesse later. If the queen loses to the king, I'm in good shape. The clubs are no longer blocked. I either make or go down one depending on what happens in diamonds. </p><p>The problem comes if the king is offside and they duck. If I assume the king is onside, then I might find myself in some precarious predicament later on. But I don't think my robot opponent is up to ducking. If the club queen holds,
I think I can safely assume East has the king. </p><p>I wouldn't do this against opponents I trust. But I decide to play a club to the queen. East plays the deuce; West, the king. See? I told you he wouldn't duck.</p><p>West shifts to the four of diamonds. I duck in dummy. East takes the king, and I play the six to disguise whether West's four is low or high. East continues with the nine of diamonds--three--seven--ace. It appears West had QJ74 and East had K92.
</p><p>
If so I'm down. The defense has taken three tricks and can take three more when they get in. Maybe West started with five diamonds, QJ742, and East has the heart ace. That seems unlikely. Why would the defense set up the suit in the hand that has no entry? East probably has the long spade. If he had the heart ace and only one more diamond,
he would have shifted back to
spades after winning the diamond king.</p><p>Still, it doesn't hurt to try. If that's the layout, I don't need to knock out the heart ace early. I can cash all my tricks, reaching this position:</p>
<div align="center"><table><tbody>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">NORTH<br />
<i>Robot</i><br />
♠ --<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> Q J 2<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> --<br />
♣ --<br />
<br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">SOUTH<br />
<i>Phillip</i><br />
♠ --<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> 9<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> 10 8<br />
♣ --<br />
</td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
</tbody></table></div>
<p>I need one more trick. If East has the heart ace and is out of diamonds, I can play a heart to the queen. East can win and cash a long spade, but he will have to concede a heart
trick to dummy at the end.
</p><p>
I play a club to the ace and a club back to dummy. Both opponents follow. I cash the club ten, and East pitches the spade seven. That confirms my suspicion that the heart ace is on my left. East wouldn't be pitching his spade winner
if he held the heart ace.
</p><p>
The ten-eight of diamonds may prove useful if I've misread the position. But my hearts are worthless. So I pitch the three of hearts. West pitches the heart eight.
</p><p>
I play a spade to my ace, reaching the above position. Both opponents follow. I exit with a heart. To my surprise, it's East, not West, who wins the trick. East then cashes the diamond jack and concedes
a heart to dummy. Making two.
</p>
<div align="center"><table><tbody>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">NORTH<br />
<i>Robot</i><br />
♠ 9 5 3<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> K Q J 2<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> A 5<br />
♣ J 10 9 8<br />
<br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125">WEST<br />
<i>Robot</i><br />
♠ J 10 8<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> 10 8 4<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> Q 7 4 2<br />
♣ K 7 6<br />
<br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">EAST<br />
<i>Robot</i><br />
♠ K 7 6 2<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> A 7 5<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> K J 9<br />
♣ 4 3 2<br />
<br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">SOUTH<br />
<i>Phillip</i><br />
♠ A Q 4<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> 9 6 3<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> 10 8 6 3<br />
♣ A Q 5<br />
</td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
</tbody></table></div>
<p>Plus 120 is worth 75%. The median result was passing it out. I briefly considered accepting partner's game try, and some thought this hand wasn't worth opening?</p><p>West played four, then seven from Q742 and the diamonds were blocked all along. It turns out I gave the defense a chance to beat me. Here was the position when I cashed the last club:</p>
<div align="center"><table><tbody>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">NORTH<br />
<i>Robot</i><br />
♠ 9<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> Q J 2<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> --<br />
♣ 10<br />
<br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125">WEST<br />
<i>Robot</i><br />
♠ 10<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> 10 8<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> Q 2<br />
♣ --<br />
<br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">EAST<br />
<i>Robot</i><br />
♠ 7 2<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> A 5<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> J <br />
♣ --<br />
<br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">SOUTH<br />
<i>Phillip</i><br />
♠ A<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> 9 3<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> 10 8<br />
♣ --<br />
</td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
</tbody></table></div>
<p>
If I knock out the heart ace at this point, I take eight tricks thanks to the diamond blockage. When, instead, I cashed the last club, all East had to do to beat me was to pitch a loser instead of a winner. If he pitches a heart, my hand is squeezed. To hold my diamond stopper, I have to let go of a heart and now have no way to cash the heart once I establish it.
</p><p>I didn't visualize the diamond blockage. I was mesmerized by the defense's carding and assumed West had the queen-jack or queen-jack-deuce of diamonds left. I should have gotten the end position right. I lucked out that East defended poorly.</p><p>This deal is a good example of how humans and robots make different kinds of mistakes. My mistake was making an assumption about the layout and forgetting that my assumption might be wrong. That's a very human mistake and a difficult one to avoid.</p><p>Most of what we think about when we play a deal is reconstructing the opponents' hands from clues. Sometimes our deductions are virtually certain; sometimes they are more speculative. It's easy to forget which ones are speculative and back off those assumptions when necessary. But robots don't have that problem. They don't play detective in the first place. So a robot would not have a blind spot in the above position and would easily find the heart play.</p><p>East's mistake was assuming I knew what I was doing. That's a very robot mistake. He could see that, if I played correctly, it made no difference whether he pitched a spade or a heart, so he chose one at random. Giving your opponent a losing option when he has a choice is something a robot doesn't even "think" about. A human, on the other hand, would see that the long spade might come in handy but the low heart could not and would be unlikely to make this mistake. </p>Phillip Martinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12686740850642509457noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6167918454701652348.post-29326443798437840142024-03-03T13:05:00.000-05:002024-03-03T13:05:18.459-05:00Free Weekly Instant Tournament - January 18 - Board 6
<p style="font-weight: bold; text-align: left;">
<a href="https://www.bridgebase.com/tools/handviewer.html?lin=pn|PSMartin,~~M18008i2,~~M18475xu,~~M18773k1|st||md|4SQ92H872DAKJ9CK54,SA5HKQD32CJT98763,SKJT74HT43DQT75CA,S863HAJ965D864CQ2|sv|e|rh||ah|Board%206|mb|P|mb|1D|an|Minor%20suit%20opening%20--%203+%20!D;%2011-21%20HCP;%2012-22%20total%20points|mb|P|mb|1S|an|One%20over%20one%20--%204+%20!S;%206+%20total%20points%20|mb|P|mb|1N|an|2-5%20!C;%204-5%20!D;%202-4%20!H;%202-3%20!S;%2012-14%20HCP|mb|2C|an|5+%20!C;%2010+%20HCP;%2016-%20total%20points%20|mb|2S|an|4-%20!D;%206+%20!S;%208-12%20total%20points%20|mb|P|mb|P|mb|P|pc|CQ|pc|C4|pc|C3|pc|CA|pc|S4|pc|S8|pc|S9|pc|SA|pc|HK|pc|H3|pc|H5|pc|H2|pc|HQ|pc|H4|pc|HA|pc|H7|pc|HJ|pc|H8|pc|S5|pc|HT|pc|CJ|pc|ST|pc|C2|pc|C5|mc|9|
">
Board 6</a><br />Opponents vulnerable</p>
<table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="width: 300px;"><tbody><tr><td align="center" width="100%">♠ Q 9 2 <span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> 8 7 2 <span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> A K J 9 ♣ K 5 4 </td></tr></tbody></table>
<p>
RHO passes. I open with one diamond. Partner responds one spade, and I rebid one notrump. LHO chimes in with two clubs.
</p><p>The tooltip confirms what I suspect: LHO has no idea what this auction means. He thinks it shows five or more clubs and ten or more HCP. He probably has a hand where he wanted to overcall on the previous round but he considered his hand flawed in some way. Possibly the suit quality is below standard.</p><p>This
kind of bidding makes no sense at all. If you're going to make an overcall you consider unsound, why let the opponents exchange information first? Not only is it more dangerous to bid now than it was on the first round, it is also less productive. An immediate two club overcall would have taken the one level away from us. Passing allowed responder to get his suit into the auction cheaply and allowed me to limit my hand with a one-notrump rebid.</p><p>That's not to say this auction doesn't exist. But it should show at least a sound opening bid with primary diamonds and secondary clubs. Clubs might even be a four-card suit. Just because your opponent opened with one diamond doesn't mean diamonds isn't your side's best strain. And it can be hard to get there without the agreement that unsolicited belated actions show primary length in opener's suit.
It is certainly a more useful agreement than playing that such actions announce to the opponents that you are making
a questionable call.
</p><p>
Over two clubs, partner bids two spades and buys it. RHO leads the club queen.
</p>
<div align="center"><table><tbody>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">NORTH<br />
<i>Phillip</i><br />
♠ Q 9 2<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> 8 7 2<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> A K J 9<br />
♣ K 5 4<br />
<br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">SOUTH<br />
<i>Robot</i><br />
♠ K J 10 7 4<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> 10 4 3<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> Q 10 7 5<br />
♣ A<br />
<br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
</tbody></table></div>
<table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="width: 300px;">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td align="direction in globals.directions:left" width="25%"><b>West</b></td>
<td align="direction in globals.directions:left" width="25%"><b>North</b></td>
<td align="direction in globals.directions:left" width="25%"><b>East</b></td>
<td align="direction in globals.directions:left" width="25%"><b>South</b></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="25%"><i>Robot</i></td>
<td align="left" width="25%"><i>Phillip</i></td>
<td align="left" width="25%"><i>Robot</i></td>
<td align="left" width="25%"><i>Robot</i></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="25%">Pass</td>
<td align="left" width="25%">1 <span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span></td>
<td align="left" width="25%">Pass</td>
<td align="left" width="25%">1 ♠</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="25%">Pass</td>
<td align="left" width="25%">1 NT</td>
<td align="left" width="25%">2 ♣</td>
<td align="left" width="25%">2 ♠</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="25%">(All pass)</td>
<td align="left" width="25%"> </td>
<td align="left" width="25%"> </td>
<td align="left" width="25%"> </td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<p>
Note that an immediate two club overcall would have worked much better. Partner would bid two spades, which I would raise to three. With his diamond fit, partner would probably decide to bid on and we would reach
a hopeless game.</p><p>East plays the club three at trick one, and I win with the ace. I could play a diamond to dummy and take a heart pitch on the the club king. But the opening lead suggests East has seven clubs, and West's silence suggests East has at least two
hearts as well. So the chance East has
a singleton diamond is quite high. If he does, breaking diamonds may enable him to get two diamond ruffs when the defense takes the spade ace. I'll be trading one heart loser for two diamonds losers, which is not a good trade. On a bad day,
East might even be void in diamonds. Then I could go down trying to take my pitch.
</p><p>
What if I play a spade instead? If West has the ace and ducks, I'm in dummy to take my pitch. Will he duck? Almost surely. He's not looking at my hand and doesn't know my problem. From his point of view, I might be intending to insert the spade nine, losing to East's jack. Or hopping might drop his partner's stiff king.
</p><p>
And even if the spade ace is offside, a spade lead doesn't necessarily cost. East may ask himself why I seemed uninterested in taking a pitch on the club king. He might conclude that his partner is the one with the singleton and might try to give West a club ruff rather
than cash hearts. </p><p>
Since a spade will surely work if West has the spade ace and might work even if he doesn't, it looks like a better play than opening myself up to diamond ruffs.
</p><p>
I play a spade--eight--nine--ace. Will East play a club now? No. He cashes the heart king, then plays the queen. West overtakes with the ace to cash to jack. East doesn't let him cash it, however. He makes the
good play of ruffing his partner's trick to lead a club. I ruff with the ten and claim. Making three.
</p>
<div align="center"><table><tbody>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">NORTH<br />
<i>Phillip</i><br />
♠ Q 9 2<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> 8 7 2<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> A K J 9<br />
♣ K 5 4<br />
<br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125">WEST<br />
<i>Robot</i><br />
♠ 8 6 3<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> A J 9 6 5<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> 8 6 4<br />
♣ Q 2<br />
<br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">EAST<br />
<i>Robot</i><br />
♠ A 5<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> K Q<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> 3 2<br />
♣ J 10 9 8 7 6 3<br />
<br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">SOUTH<br />
<i>Robot</i><br />
♠ K J 10 7 4<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> 10 4 3<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> Q 10 7 5<br />
♣ A<br />
</td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
</tbody></table></div>
<p>
Plus 140 is worth 46%. My first below average board in this set. East has a doubleton diamond, so I could have made four by crossing with a diamond to take my pitch, as some did. I stand by my
choice, however. I think a spade at trick two is the better play, even though it was wrong this time.
</p>Phillip Martinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12686740850642509457noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6167918454701652348.post-89168681889627740322024-02-25T13:00:00.001-05:002024-03-09T11:34:41.166-05:00Free Weekly Instant Tournament - January 18 - Board 5
<p style="font-weight: bold; text-align: left;">
<a href="https://www.bridgebase.com/tools/handviewer.html?lin=pn|PSMartin,~~M18008i2,~~M18475xu,~~M18773k1|st||md|3SA94HK92DQ8CAQ863,ST87HJ75DT63CKJ92,SJ653H863DA974CT7,SKQ2HAQT4DKJ52C54|sv|n|rh||ah|Board%205|mb|P|mb|1N|an|notrump%20opener.%20Could%20have%205M.%20--%202-5%20!C;%202-5%20!D;%202-5%20!H;%202-5%20!S;%2015-17%20HCP;%2018-%20total%20points%20|mb|P|mb|P|mb|P|pc|C6|pc|CJ|pc|C7|pc|C4|pc|H5|pc|H3|pc|HQ|pc|H2|pc|D2|pc|DQ|pc|D3|pc|D7|pc|C8|pc|CK|pc|CT|pc|C5|pc|H7|pc|H8|pc|HT|pc|HK|pc|CA|pc|C2|pc|H6|pc|S2|pc|CQ|pc|C9|pc|S6|pc|D5|pc|C3|pc|S7|pc|S3|pc|DK|pc|H9|pc|HJ|pc|D4|pc|H4|pc|S8|pc|S5|pc|SK|pc|SA|pc|D8|pc|D6|pc|DA|pc|DJ|pc|D9|pc|HA|pc|S4|pc|DT|pc|ST|pc|SJ|pc|SQ|pc|S9|
">
Board 5</a><br />Our side vulnerable</p>
<table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="width: 300px;"><tbody><tr><td align="center" width="100%">♠ A 9 4 <span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> K 9 2 <span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> Q 8 ♣ A Q 8 6 3 </td></tr></tbody></table>
<p>
Partner passes. RHO opens with one notrump, 15 to 17 HCP. Normally I would not double with only 15 HCP. But this is a "best-hand" tournament, so RHO is limited to 15 HCP as well. Should I double under these conditions? </p><p>If my club suit were better, say AQ109x, I might double. But with such weak spots, I'm hesitant. If we can't run clubs, it may be hard to come to seven tricks. There is also the factor
that my robot partner is no help on defense. Even if we can beat this, I'll have to figure out how all by myself. And even if I figure out how, I may have trouble getting partner to cooperate. Passing seems the wiser course. I pass, ending the auction, and lead the six of clubs.
</p>
<div align="center"><table><tbody>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">NORTH<br />
<i>Robot</i><br />
♠ 10 8 7<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> J 7 5<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> 10 6 3<br />
♣ K J 9 2<br />
<br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125">WEST<br />
<i>Phillip</i><br />
♠ A 9 4<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> K 9 2<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> Q 8<br />
♣ A Q 8 6 3<br />
<br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
</tbody></table></div>
<table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="width: 300px;">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td align="direction in globals.directions:left" width="25%"><b>West</b></td>
<td align="direction in globals.directions:left" width="25%"><b>North</b></td>
<td align="direction in globals.directions:left" width="25%"><b>East</b></td>
<td align="direction in globals.directions:left" width="25%"><b>South</b></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="25%"><i>Phillip</i></td>
<td align="left" width="25%"><i>Robot</i></td>
<td align="left" width="25%"><i>Robot</i></td>
<td align="left" width="25%"><i>Robot</i></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="25%"> </td>
<td align="left" width="25%"> </td>
<td align="left" width="25%">Pass</td>
<td align="left" width="25%">1 NT</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="25%">(All pass)</td>
<td align="left" width="25%"> </td>
<td align="left" width="25%"> </td>
<td align="left" width="25%"> </td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<p>Dummy has 5 HCP. Declarer is known to have 15. So partner must have exactly 5.</p><p>Declarer plays the jack of clubs from dummy--seven--four. Declarer would have ducked with the ten, so partner obviously began with ten doubleton. That makes it difficult to run the club suit. When I continue clubs, declarer can insert the nine, knowing that if this loses to partner's stiff ten, he will be unable to continue the suit. </p><p>
Declarer plays a heart from dummy. Partner plays the three; declarer, the queen. I have nothing urgent to do, so I see no reason to win this trick. Winning makes things easy for declarer. It not only establishes his suit, it also gives him a dummy entry with the heart jack. Ducking may be especially effective if declarer has the heart ten. He may then waste an entry repeating the finesse. There is, in fact, an excellent chance declarer does have the heart ten. Without it, he might just as well start hearts from his hand. So he might have found something better to do while in dummy. I play the heart deuce.</p><p>Declarer leads the deuce of diamonds from his hand. It could be right to duck. If declarer has ace-jack, hopping lets him hook partner for the king. If I duck, he may play partner for king-queen and lose a later finesse to my stiff queen. But it's not clear declarer has the flexibility to do that. After partner wins the king, I'm two to one to have the queen by restricted choice. Given his communication problems, declarer may elect not to take a finesse that's apt to fail. He might end up dropping my queen for lack of viable options. I may have a better chance at taking two diamond tricks if I hop and hope declarer uses his dummy entry to repeat the heart finesse.</p><p>Further, there is no guarantee declarer has ace-jack of diamonds. He might have king-jack and just be trying to set up tricks as best he can. If I duck and dummy's ten forces partner's ace, I'll certainly wish I had hopped.</p><p>I hop up with queen. Partner plays the seven. Can I place partner's high cards now? I assume he has the ace or king of diamonds. If he has the ace, he must hold exactly one jack to come to 5 HCP. If he has the king, he must hold either both missing jacks or the spade queen.</p><p>I might as well continue clubs. If I lead the club three, revealing my five-card suit, declarer will surely play the nine, as I noted previously. Perhaps if I lead the club eight, retaining the possibility that I began I with four clubs, declarer will play the king. If he plays the nine, he risks never taking a second club trick.</p><p>I lead the club eight. Declarer does rise with the king, and partner follows with the ten as expected. Declarer now,
as I hoped, repeats the heart finesse. Five of hearts--eight--ten--king.
</p><p>Can I deduce declarer's heart length? With AQ10 tight, he would have led the heart jack at trick two, so he must have four or five. Leading low twice make sense with AQ10x, since it guards against a doubleton king onside. If the finesse works, he can afford the jack on the first round only if the suit is three-three. What about AQ10xx? Low the first time, guarding against a stiff king onside, is the right play in isolation. But a stiff king is unlikely, and, given declarer's shortage of dummy entries, catering to it might be a luxury he can't afford. I suspect he would have led the jack with five hearts, enabling him to repeat the finesse. So I'll tentatively assume he has four.</p><p>Here is the current position:</p>
<div align="center"><table><tbody>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">NORTH<br />
<i>Robot</i><br />
♠ 10 8 7<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> J<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> 10 6<br />
♣ 9 2<br />
<br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125">WEST<br />
<i>Phillip</i><br />
♠ A 9 4<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> 9<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> 8<br />
♣ A Q 3<br />
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table></div>
<p>Three clubs, a diamond, a heart, and the spade ace bring us up to six tricks. If partner has the diamond ace, declarer is down. So I'll assume partner has the king. When I run clubs, declarer must come down to five cards. What will they be?</p><p>If partner has the spade queen, declarer will come down to</p><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="width: 300px;"><tbody><tr><td align="center" width="100%">♠ K J <span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> A x <span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> A ♣ -- </td></tr></tbody></table><p>I'll exit with a heart. Declarer will win in dummy and must guess the spades to make his contract. He should guess right. If partner had the spade ace, I would exit with a diamond, setting up a diamond trick for partner while he still had an entry.</p><p>If partner has both jacks, declarer will come down to</p><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="width: 300px;"><tbody><tr><td align="center" width="100%">♠ K Q <span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> A x <span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> A ♣ -- </td></tr></tbody></table><p>Now we have no defense. So it appears I must hope partner has the diamond ace or that he has the diamond king and spade queen and declarer misplays.</p><p>I cash the ace of clubs. Partner discards the heart six, confirming my assumption that declarer has four hearts. Declarer pitches the spade deuce.</p><p>On the club queen, partner discards the spade six; declarer, the diamond five. Since this is partner's first spade, it is probably count, given the robots'
proclivities. That means partner has four spades, giving declarer 3-4-4-2. Declarer is now down to two spades, two hearts, and ace-jack or king-jack of diamonds.
</p><p>
On the last club, partner discards the spade three; declarer, the king of diamonds. So declarer had <i>king</i>-jack of diamonds, which leaves him with king-queen of spades. This must be the position:
</p>
<div align="center"><table><tbody>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">NORTH<br />
<i>Robot</i><br />
♠ 10 8<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> J<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> 10 6<br />
♣ --<br />
<br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125">WEST<br />
<i>Phillip</i><br />
♠ A 9 4<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> 9<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> 8<br />
♣ --<br />
<br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">EAST<br />
<i>Robot</i><br />
♠ J x<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> --<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> A x x<br />
♣ --<br />
<br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">SOUTH<br />
<i>Robot</i><br />
♠ K Q<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> A x<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> J <br />
♣ --<br />
</td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
</tbody></table></div>
<p>
Dummy's diamond ten saved declarer from being squeezed. There is no way to take anything other than our two aces. I exit with a heart to dummy's jack. Declarer leads a spade to the king and my ace. I play a diamond to partner's ace. Down one.
</p>
<div align="center"><table><tbody>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">NORTH<br />
<i>Robot</i><br />
♠ 10 8 7<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> J 7 5<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> 10 6 3<br />
♣ K J 9 2<br />
<br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125">WEST<br />
<i>Phillip</i><br />
♠ A 9 4<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> K 9 2<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> Q 8<br />
♣ A Q 8 6 3<br />
<br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">EAST<br />
<i>Robot</i><br />
♠ J 6 5 3<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> 8 6 3<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> A 9 7 4<br />
♣ 10 7<br />
<br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">SOUTH<br />
<i>Robot</i><br />
♠ K Q 2<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> A Q 10 4<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> K J 5 2<br />
♣ 5 4<br />
</td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
</tbody></table></div>
<p>
Plus 50 is worth 86%. Continuing with the eight of clubs rather than the three proved to be critical. Everyone who continued with the three saw declarer insert the nine. The defense is much better placed if declarer rises with the club king, and he has no reason to do that if he knows you began with five clubs. </p><p>Although it turned out not to matter, I might have defended a little better. Let's consider again the case where partner has the diamond king and the spade queen. As I said earlier, if I run clubs, declarer comes down to:</p>
<table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="width: 300px;"><tbody><tr><td align="center" width="100%">♠ K J <span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> A x <span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> A ♣ -- </td></tr></tbody></table>
<p>When I exit with a heart, he wins in dummy and must the guess the spades, which he should "guess" correctly.</p><p>But what if the jack of hearts wasn't in dummy? If my heart exit tosses declarer back in his hand, he's down. So I would like declarer to lead the heart jack from dummy when he takes the second finesse. Let's back up to that point. Here is the imagined position, with the lead in dummy:</p>
<div align="center"><table><tbody>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">NORTH<br />
<i>Robot</i><br />
♠ 10 8 7<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> J 7<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> 10 6<br />
♣ 9 2<br />
<br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125">WEST<br />
<i>Phillip</i><br />
♠ A 9 4<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> K 9<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> 8<br />
♣ A Q 3<br />
<br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">EAST<br />
<i>Robot</i><br />
♠ Q 6 5 3<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> 8 6<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> K 9 4<br />
♣ --<br />
<br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">SOUTH<br />
<i>Robot</i><br />
♠ K J 2<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> A 10 4<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> A J 5<br />
♣ --<br />
</td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
</tbody></table></div>
<p>As the play went, a low heart now, guarding against king doubleton onside, is the correct play. And declarer should then make his contract. But what if I had played the <i>nine</i> rather than the deuce when I ducked? Now it's reasonable for declarer to lead the jack for the second finesse, playing me for nine-eight doubleton. If he does lead the jack, then I can win with the king, run my clubs, and exit with a heart, forcing declarer to lead spades from his hand for down one.</p><p>Obviously at the time I ducked the heart king, I didn't know enough about the layout to see how playing the nine might gain. But I think I should have found the play anyway on general principles. The falsecard of the nine frequently gives declarer extra options. So long as these aren't <i>winning </i>options, gratuitously playing the nine is often a good idea. All I had to do was follow Michael Rosenberg's rule: "Always play the nine unless you have to."</p>Phillip Martinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12686740850642509457noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6167918454701652348.post-21761924244731541322024-02-18T12:40:00.000-05:002024-02-18T12:40:17.669-05:00Free Weekly Instant Tournament - January 18 - Board 4
<p style="font-weight: bold; text-align: left;">
<a href="https://www.bridgebase.com/tools/handviewer.html?lin=st||pn|PSMartin,~~M18008i2,~~M18475xu,~~M18773k1|st||md|2SKJHQ2DAT74CKJT97,ST743HKT76DK65C32,SQ85HA853DQ8CAQ54,SA962HJ94DJ932C86|sv|b|rh||ah|Board%204|mb|P|mb|1C|an|Minor%20suit%20opening%20--%203+%20!C;%2011-21%20HCP;%2012-22%20total%20points%20|mb|P|mb|2C!|an|Inverted%20minor%20suit%20raise%20--%204+%20!C;%203-%20!H;%203-%20!S;%2010+%20HCP;%20forcing%20to|mb|P|mb|2N|an|3-5%20!C;%202-5%20!D;%202-4%20!H;%202-4%20!S;%2011-14%20HCP;%2012+%20total%20points;%20partial%20stop%20in%20!D;%20partial%20stop%20in%20!H;%20partial%20stop%20in%20!S%20|mb|P|mb|3N|an|4+%20!C;%203-%20!H;%203-%20!S;%2013-18%20HCP|mb|P|mb|P|mb|P|pc|H4|pc|HQ|pc|HK|pc|H3|pc|H7|pc|HA|pc|HJ|pc|H2|pc|S5|pc|SA|pc|SK|pc|S7|pc|H9|pc|D4|pc|H6|pc|H5|pc|S2|pc|SJ|pc|S3|pc|S8|pc|C7|pc|C2|pc|CA|pc|C8|pc|C4|pc|C6|pc|C9|pc|C3|pc|CT|pc|D5|pc|C5|pc|D3|pc|CJ|pc|HT|pc|CQ|pc|D9|mc|10|
">
Board 4</a><br />Both sides vulnerable</p>
<table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="width: 300px;"><tbody><tr><td align="center" width="100%">♠ K J <span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> Q 2 <span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> A 10 7 4 ♣ K J 10 9 7 </td></tr></tbody></table>
<p>
Partner opens with one club in second seat. With my major-suit holdings, it could be right to bid notrump before partner does. Perhaps, if two notrump were forcing, I would choose it. But it isn't. And blasting three notrump is too unilateral for my taste.</p><p>I raise to two clubs, showing a limit raise or better. Partner rebids two notrump and I raise to three. RHO leads the four of hearts.
</p>
<div align="center"><table><tbody>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">NORTH<br />
<i>Phillip</i><br />
♠ K J<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> Q 2<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> A 10 7 4<br />
♣ K J 10 9 7<br />
<br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">SOUTH<br />
<i>Robot</i><br />
♠ Q 8 5<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> A 8 5 3<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> Q 8<br />
♣ A Q 5 4<br />
<br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
</tbody></table></div>
<table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="width: 300px;">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td align="direction in globals.directions:left" width="25%"><b>West</b></td>
<td align="direction in globals.directions:left" width="25%"><b>North</b></td>
<td align="direction in globals.directions:left" width="25%"><b>East</b></td>
<td align="direction in globals.directions:left" width="25%"><b>South</b></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="25%"><i>Robot</i></td>
<td align="left" width="25%"><i>Phillip</i></td>
<td align="left" width="25%"><i>Robot</i></td>
<td align="left" width="25%"><i>Robot</i></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="25%"> </td>
<td align="left" width="25%"> </td>
<td align="left" width="25%">Pass</td>
<td align="left" width="25%">1 ♣</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="25%">Pass</td>
<td align="left" width="25%">2 ♣</td>
<td align="left" width="25%">Pass</td>
<td align="left" width="25%">2 NT</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="25%">Pass</td>
<td align="left" width="25%">3 NT</td>
<td align="left" width="25%">(All pass)</td>
<td align="left" width="25%"> </td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<p>
I have nine tricks once I knock out the spade ace. The four is the lowest outstanding heart, so hearts are four-three one way or the other. That means the opponents can't cash enough tricks to beat me when they get in. This
hand is going to be about overtricks. My first chance for an overtrick is for West to hold the heart king. I rise with the queen. East covers with the king.</p><p>It appears blasting three notrump would have worked out well. Those who do that might make four, and it's hard to see anyone's doing worse than plus 600. So unless I can find an overtrick somehow, this will be a below-average result.</p><p>No shift by East does any damage, so I see nothing to gain by winning this heart trick. In general, if you can't see any reason to win a trick, you're better off ducking. Accordingly, I play the three.
</p><p>
East continues with the heart seven. If I duck this trick, West may win and switch to a diamond. I will have no choice but to play low. East may then win and switch to back to hearts, setting up a fifth
trick for the defense before the spade ace is knocked out. So this heart I can't afford to duck. I rise with the ace. West drops the jack.
</p><p>
That's a good sign. If West started with jack-nine-four, the hearts are blocked and the defense will be able to cash only one heart when they get in with the spade ace.</p><p>I lead the spade five. West hops with the ace. I unblock the king
to maintain flexibility (although it's hard to see how it will ever matter), and East plays the seven. West cashes the heart nine I pitch the four of diamonds from the dummy, and East follows with the six. West shifts to the spade deuce. I win with dummy's jack, and East follows with the
three. This is the position, with the lead in dummy:
</p>
<div align="center"><table><tbody>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">NORTH<br />
<i>Phillip</i><br />
♠ --<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> --<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> A 10 7<br />
♣ K J 10 9 7<br />
<br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">SOUTH<br />
<i>Robot</i><br />
♠ Q<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> 8<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> Q 8<br />
♣ A Q 5 4<br />
</td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
</tbody></table></div>
<p>
West apparently did start with jack-nine-four of hearts, and East has the ten left. I have all the tricks but one, so the count is right for a squeeze. But I don't have the entries. I have no way to get to my hand after cashing five clubs.</p><p>Maybe I can put some pressure on East anyway, though.
Suppose I cash <i>four </i>rounds of clubs, ending in my hand. East must come down to four cards. He doesn't know I don't have four spades. So he might decide to keep two spades and a heart and come down to a stiff diamond.
I then have to guess whether to play him for a stiff king or a stiff jack.</p><p>
I start by leading the club seven to my ace, then the four of clubs back to dummy's nine. Both opponents follow. If East has four spades as I hope, then he is 4-4-3-2. I lead the ten of clubs, and East discards the five of diamonds. I play low from my hand, retaining the queen to win the fourth trick. West discards the three of diamonds. </p><p>East, I hope, is now down to a doubleton diamond and a doubleton spade and must decide on the next trick which suit to unguard. I lead the jack of clubs from dummy. East throws the heart ten, and I win in my hand with the club queen.</p><p>Well! That wasn't the mistake I was expecting, but it'll do. I have the rest.</p>
<div align="center"><table><tbody>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">NORTH<br />
<i>Phillip</i><br />
♠ K J<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> Q 2<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> A 10 7 4<br />
♣ K J 10 9 7<br />
<br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125">WEST<br />
<i>Robot</i><br />
♠ A 9 6 2<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> J 9 4<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> J 9 3 2<br />
♣ 8 6<br />
<br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">EAST<br />
<i>Robot</i><br />
♠ 10 7 4 3<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> K 10 7 6<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> K 6 5<br />
♣ 3 2<br />
<br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">SOUTH<br />
<i>Robot</i><br />
♠ Q 8 5<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> A 8 5 3<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> Q 8<br />
♣ A Q 5 4<br />
</td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
</tbody></table></div>
<p>
Plus 630 is worth 96%. It turns out even plus 600 is above average, since some managed to go down in three notrump or even to miss game altogether. It's not a good field. </p><p>Did East actually have a guess in the end game? Here was the position when I led the club jack and East had to make his critical discard:
</p>
<div align="center"><table><tbody>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">NORTH<br />
<i>Phillip</i><br />
♠ --<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> --<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> A 10 7<br />
♣ K J<br />
<br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125">WEST<br />
<i>Robot</i><br />
♠ 9 6<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> --<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> J 9 2<br />
♣ --<br />
<br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">EAST<br />
<i>Robot</i><br />
♠ 10 4<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> 10<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> K 6<br />
♣ --<br />
<br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">SOUTH<br />
<i>Robot</i><br />
♠ Q<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> 8<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> Q 8<br />
♣ Q<br />
</td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
</tbody></table></div>
<p>
If I held a low spade instead of a low heart, East indeed had to pitch the heart ten. But that's not possible. If West held the last heart, he would have played it after cashing the nine.
It must be tough playing bridge when you are unable to draw the simplest of inferences.
</p><p>As I looked over the play at other tables, I saw that almost every declarer started clubs by cashing the ace and queen. That's careless. You must arrange to win the fourth round of clubs in your hand to have any chance at an overtrick. Yes, I was lucky that East made an unlikely error. But the opponents' errors do you no good unless you are poised to take advantage of them.</p><p>One declarer did find an interesting way to make an overtrick. When West led the heart four, declarer played <i>low </i>from dummy. There was now no way to stop him from establishing his eight of hearts. East played the ten, and declarer ducked. East continued with the king, smothering dummy's queen, and declarer ducked again, as West played the jack. Unluckily, when declarer later won the ace, felling the nine, he didn't realize that his eight was high. So he made only three anyway.</p>Phillip Martinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12686740850642509457noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6167918454701652348.post-78607992288331958472024-02-11T13:11:00.000-05:002024-02-11T13:11:58.611-05:00Free Weekly Instant Tournament - January 18 - Board 3
<p style="font-weight: bold; text-align: left;">
<a href="https://www.bridgebase.com/tools/handviewer.html?lin=st||pn|PSMartin,~~M18008i2,~~M18475xu,~~M18773k1|st||md|1SKHAJ73DAK5CKT972,SJ87HK4DQJ84CJ654,SAQT943HQ862DT96C,S652HT95D732CAQ83|sv|e|rh||ah|Board%203|mb|1C|an|Minor%20suit%20opening%20--%203+%20!C;%2011-21%20HCP;%2012-22%20total%20points|mb|P|mb|1S|an|One%20over%20one%20--%204+%20!S;%206+%20total%20points%20|mb|P|mb|2H|an|Opener%20reverse%20--%205+%20!C;%204+%20!H;%203-%20!S;%2021-%20HCP;%2018-22%20total%20points|mb|P|mb|3H|an|4+%20!H;%205+%20!S;%208+%20HCP;%20forcing%20to%204H%20|mb|P|mb|4H|an|5+%20!C;%204+%20!H;%203-%20!S;%2021-%20HCP;%2018-22%20total%20points|mb|P|mb|P|mb|P|pc|DQ|pc|D6|pc|D2|pc|DA|pc|C2|pc|C4|pc|H2|pc|C8|pc|S3|pc|S2|pc|SK|pc|S7|pc|C7|pc|C5|pc|H6|pc|C3|pc|SA|pc|S5|pc|D5|pc|S8|pc|D9|pc|D3|pc|DK|pc|D4|pc|C9|pc|C6|pc|H8|pc|CQ|pc|DT|pc|D7|pc|H3|pc|DJ|pc|CT|pc|CJ|pc|HQ|pc|CA|pc|SQ|pc|S6|pc|CK|pc|SJ|pc|S4|pc|HT|pc|HJ|pc|HK|pc|H4|pc|S9|pc|H5|pc|H7|pc|HA|pc|D8|pc|ST|pc|H9|
">
Board 3</a><br />Opponents vulnerable</p>
<table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="width: 300px;"><tbody><tr><td align="center" width="100%">♠ K <span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> A J 7 3 <span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> A K 5 ♣ K 10 9 7 2 </td></tr></tbody></table>
<p>
I deal and open with one club. Partner bids one spade.</p><p>The obvious rebid is two hearts. But I don't like reversing with robots, since the methods they play after reverses are unplayable. Should I rebid two notrump instead? Two hearts promises at least five clubs, which might make it easier to get to a club
slam if that's where we belong. And, unlike two notrump, two hearts doesn't promise a doubleton spade. The nightmare hand in the robot's methods is a
minimum reverse with three-card support for responder's suit. Since that's not what I have, perhaps I can survive bidding two hearts.
</p><p></p><p>
I bid two hearts and partner raises to three hearts, forcing. Should I cue-bid four diamonds? That should show a little better than a minimum reverse, and this hand certainly qualifies. True, both my suits are weak. I would have a better hand if my diamond king were the club queen. But I do have seven controls and a fitting card in partner's
suit. That's too much for a signoff.</p><p>Opposite a real partner, I would bid four diamonds. But the tooltip says that call shows 20+ total points.
If that's what partner expects, he will be
disappointed with this hand. I reluctantly bid four hearts. Partner passes, and LHO leads the diamond queen.
</p>
<div align="center"><table><tbody>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">NORTH<br />
<i>Robot</i><br />
♠ A Q 10 9 4 3<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> Q 8 6 2<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> 10 9 6<br />
♣ --<br />
<br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">SOUTH<br />
<i>Phillip</i><br />
♠ K<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> A J 7 3<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> A K 5<br />
♣ K 10 9 7 2<br />
<br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
</tbody></table></div>
<table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="width: 300px;">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td align="direction in globals.directions:left" width="25%"><b>West</b></td>
<td align="direction in globals.directions:left" width="25%"><b>North</b></td>
<td align="direction in globals.directions:left" width="25%"><b>East</b></td>
<td align="direction in globals.directions:left" width="25%"><b>South</b></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="25%"><i>Robot</i></td>
<td align="left" width="25%"><i>Robot</i></td>
<td align="left" width="25%"><i>Robot</i></td>
<td align="left" width="25%"><i>Phillip</i></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="25%"> </td>
<td align="left" width="25%"> </td>
<td align="left" width="25%"> </td>
<td align="left" width="25%">1 ♣</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="25%">Pass</td>
<td align="left" width="25%">1 ♠</td>
<td align="left" width="25%">Pass</td>
<td align="left" width="25%">2 <span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="25%">Pass</td>
<td align="left" width="25%">3 <span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span></td>
<td align="left" width="25%">Pass</td>
<td align="left" width="25%">4 <span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="25%">(All pass)</td>
<td align="left" width="25%"> </td>
<td align="left" width="25%"> </td>
<td align="left" width="25%"> </td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<p>
There are two ways to approach this hand. I could play for control: draw trumps and run the spades. Or I could play for a scramble: cash two spades and two diamonds and try for six trump tricks.
</p><p></p><p>
A method I sometimes use for analyzing a hand with lots of options is to look for a line that guarantees the contract on normal breaks. If I can find one, then I can use that as a starting point and
try to improve on it. Let's assume that no one has a singleton spade or diamond and that hearts are three-two. Can I guarantee the contract under those conditions?
</p><p></p><p>
If I play to run spades, I'll need two dummy entries: one to ruff a spade, establishing the suit, and another to get back to dummy to run it. Let's say I win the diamond,
cash the spade king, then
play ace and a heart toward the queen. If the king
is on my left, I'm home. I have one entry with the heart queen and a second entry with a club ruff.
But if a heart to the queen loses to the king on my right, I'm down to one dummy entry. I can still run spades if the jack drops, but I'm not cold.
</p><p></p><p>
Can I do better by cashing the spade king and leading the heart jack? If the opponents take the king, I have my two entries. If they duck with king third, however, I have only one. A priori,
this is a worse line than playing LHO for the heart king. LHO will have the heart king 50% of the time, but the king will be doubleton only 40% of the time (under my assumption of three-two trumps). It's actually a little better than 40% in practice, since sometimes a defender will make a mistake and win with king third. But neither line is close to a sure thing on normal breaks. And if
hearts are four-one, my chances deteriorate quickly with either of these lines.</p><p></p><p>
What happens if I play for a scramble? Say I win the diamond, ruff a club to dummy, play a spade to the king, ruff another club, play a diamond to my hand, ruff
a third club, and cash the spade ace, pitching a diamond. That's seven tricks. I need three more. I'm down to this position with the lead in dummy:</p>
<div align="center"><table><tbody>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">NORTH<br />
<i>Robot</i><br />
♠ Q 10 9 4<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> Q<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> 10<br />
♣ --<br />
<br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">SOUTH<br />
<i>Phillip</i><br />
♠ --<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> A J 7 3<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> --<br />
♣ K 10<br />
</td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
</tbody></table></div>
<p>I have two natural trump tricks, bringing me up to nine. Unless West led from a doubleton queen of diamonds, I can ruff a diamond for my tenth trick. If East is out of diamonds, he can complicate matters by ruffing in with the ten or nine. But if East has only two diamonds, then, under my assumption of three-two trumps, he must have at least four clubs. So I can overruff with the jack and ruff a club with the heart queen for my tenth trick.</p><p>In fact, even if my assumption of three-two trumps is wrong, I'm still OK. If East overruffs the club with the heart king, I know he began with four hearts. So if he exits with a heart, I can just duck it, letting West win his singleton and score my ace-seven at the end.</p><p></p><p>
Playing for the scramble is not a sure thing under my assumptions. I still need West to have a third diamond. But, as compensation, the assumption of three-two trumps proved to be unnecessary. It's clearly a better option than playing for control, so
that's the line I'll adopt.
</p><p></p><p>
East plays the deuce of diamonds at trick one. I win with the ace, the card I'm known to hold.
</p><p></p><p>
I ruff a club. West plays the four; East, the eight. Someone withheld the three. Since the opponents must have the same parity, that means someone gave false count. </p><p></p><p>
I play a spade--deuce--king--seven. I ruff another club. West plays the five; East plays the missing three.
</p><p></p><p>
In my walkthrough, I played a diamond to my king at this point. But I think it's better to cash a spade first, just in case something bad happens and I don't get back to dummy to cash it in time.
I cash the spade ace, pitching a diamond. East plays the five; West, the eight.
</p><p></p><p>
I play a diamond to my king. East plays the three: West, the four. Now another club ruff. West plays the six; East, the queen.
</p><p></p><p>
I've reached the position above. I do have another way to score a tenth trick if I'm worried the diamond is getting overruffed. I can try to cash the spade queen. Both opponents did play up the line in spades, so perhaps spades are three-three. But I can hardly be sure of that. I
see no reason to suspect West led a diamond from queen doubleton. So I'll take my chances that a diamond ruff survives.
</p><p></p><p>
A play a diamond. East plays the seven. I ruff, and West follows with the jack.
I still have two heart tricks coming, so I've made my contract. Let's see what I can do about overtricks.</p><p>I ruff a club with the heart queen. West plays the jack: East, the ace. If the spade queen cashes, that gives
me eleven tricks. It does. Now I'm down to this position.
</p>
<div align="center"><table><tbody>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">NORTH<br />
<i>Robot</i><br />
♠ 10 9 4<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> --<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> --<br />
♣ --<br />
<br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">SOUTH<br />
<i>Phillip</i><br />
♠ --<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> A J 7<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> --<br />
♣ --<br />
</td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
</tbody></table></div>
<p>
I lead a spade. East ruffs with the ten. I overruff with the jack. West overruffs with the king
and must lead into my ace-seven of hearts. The heart king was was my only loser. Making six.
</p>
<div align="center"><table><tbody>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">NORTH<br />
<i>Robot</i><br />
♠ A Q 10 9 4 3<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> Q 8 6 2<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> 10 9 6<br />
♣ --<br />
<br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125">WEST<br />
<i>Robot</i><br />
♠ J 8 7<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> K 4<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> Q J 8 4<br />
♣ J 6 5 4<br />
<br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">EAST<br />
<i>Robot</i><br />
♠ 6 5 2<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> 10 9 5<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> 7 3 2<br />
♣ A Q 8 3<br />
<br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">SOUTH<br />
<i>Phillip</i><br />
♠ K<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> A J 7 3<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> A K 5<br />
♣ K 10 9 7 2<br />
</td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
</tbody></table></div>
<p>
Plus 480 is worth 79%. Those who rebid two notrump reached four spades, usually making only five. Expecting an eight- or nine-card spade fit, responder didn't bother to look for a four-four heart fit.
That's not necessarily the right decision. The six-card suit often serves as source of discards when it's a side suit. This hand is an example of that principle. In hearts, you can discard the diamond loser on the spades.
In spades, there is no way to avoid the diamond loser. Still, North's hearts are quite weak. If hearts break badly, it may be better to play in spades. So declining to look for a four-four heart fit might be the percentage decision.
</p><p></p><p>
Among those who chose to reverse, no one bid four diamonds over three hearts. Although one person apparently spurned the bid because he thought his hand was too <i>good</i>. He chose Blackwood. His partner decided, reasonably, not to show the club void, so they stopped in five. Declarer did opt for the scramble, but he mistimed the end position and made only five.</p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p>Phillip Martinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12686740850642509457noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6167918454701652348.post-258598105734981832024-02-04T13:39:00.000-05:002024-02-04T13:39:18.758-05:00Free Weekly Instant Tournament - January 18 - Board 2
<p style="font-weight: bold; text-align: left;">
<a href="https://www.bridgebase.com/tools/handviewer.html?lin=st||pn|PSMartin,~~M18008i2,~~M18475xu,~~M18773k1|st||md|4SQ982HAKT8D9CKQ96,S763H954DK2CAJT43,SAJTHJ76DAJ87653C,SK54HQ32DQT4C8752|sv|n|rh||ah|Board%202|mb|P|mb|1C|an|Minor%20suit%20opening%20--%203+%20!C;%2011-21%20HCP;%2012-22%20total%20points|mb|P|mb|1D|an|One%20over%20one%20--%204+%20!D;%206+%20total%20points%20|mb|P|mb|1H|an|3+%20!C;%204+%20!H;%2011+%20HCP;%2012-18%20total%20points|mb|P|mb|1S!|an|Fourth%20suit%20forcing%20--%204+%20!D;%203-%20!S;%2012+%20HCP;%2013+%20total%20points;%20forcing%20to%203N%20|mb|P|mb|3S|an|3+%20!C;%204%20!H;%204%20!S;%2014-18%20total%20points;%20forcing|mb|P|mb|4D|an|3-%20!S;%2012+%20HCP;%20rebiddable%20!D;%2013+%20total%20points%20|mb|P|mb|4H|an|3+%20!C;%204-%20!H;%204%20!S;%20biddable%20!H;%2014-18%20total%20points;%20two%20stops%20in%20!H|mb|P|mb|4S|an|3%20!S;%2012+%20HCP;%20rebiddable%20!D;%2013+%20total%20points%20|mb|P|mb|P|mb|P|pc|C2|pc|CK|pc|CA|pc|ST|pc|H6|pc|H2|pc|HK|pc|H4|pc|C6|pc|C4|pc|SJ|pc|C7|pc|HJ|pc|H3|pc|HA|pc|H5|pc|CQ|pc|C3|pc|H7|pc|C8|pc|D9|pc|DK|pc|DA|pc|D4|pc|D3|pc|DT|pc|S2|pc|D2|pc|C9|pc|CT|pc|SA|pc|C5|pc|D5|pc|DQ|pc|S8|pc|H9|pc|H8|pc|S7|pc|D6|pc|HQ|pc|S3|pc|D7|pc|S5|pc|S9|pc|SQ|pc|S6|pc|D8|pc|SK|pc|S4|pc|HT|pc|CJ|pc|DJ|
">
Board 2</a><br />Our side vulnerable</p>
<table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="width: 300px;"><tbody><tr><td align="center" width="100%">♠ Q 9 8 2 <span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> A K 10 8 <span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> 9 ♣ K Q 9 6 </td></tr></tbody></table>
<p>
RHO passes and I open with one club. Partner bids one diamond, I bid one heart, and partner bids one spade, artificial and forcing to game.
</p><p>
One spade denies four spades in the robots' methods. Partner must bid <i>two </i>spades to show a spade suit. I'm sure some players will rebid one notrump, believing that, since we can't have an eight-card spade fit,
that there is no reason to bid your spade suit. That would make sense with a 4-4-2-3 pattern or even with 4-4-1-4 and a stiff diamond honor. But with a small singleton diamond it's better to bid spades so partner
knows you are three-suited. If partner's diamonds are weak, we may wish to avoid notrump. In fact, if partner has a good hand with a club fit, showing my diamond shortness may enable us to bid a club slam.</p><p>
The next question is how many spades to bid. Had partner responded one spade initially, I would have raised to three with my 17 support points. Why not bid three spades now
to show the same hand?</p><p>Some players have a phobia about jumping in a game forcing auction. Why take up the bidding space when two spades is forcing, they say? One good reason is that the 17-19 range is awkward for opener when responder forces to game. It's strong enough that slam is possible but not strong enough to risk a bid past game. So, when your hand falls in that range, you should show it if possible. Then you can sit back and leave the rest of the auction to partner.</p><p>In short, there is nothing wrong with consuming bidding space when you are making a bid that perfectly describes your hand. In that case, the gain in keeping the auction low is illusory. Perhaps if you simply tell partner what you have, he will know what to do.</p><p>
I bid three spades, and partner bids four diamonds. What's that about? Could partner have self-sufficient diamonds? No. The robots play strong jump shifts at the two level. With self-sufficient diamonds and slam interest, he would have bid two diamonds over
one club. And with a minimum game force, he would be bidding three notrump now.</p><p>This should be a choice-of-games cue-bid, suggesting two places to play. I doubt the robots are that sophisticated. But one thing for sure: Partner doesn't think three notrump is the right spot. So I bid four hearts to suggest a four-three heart fit. </p><p>Partner bids four spades. This sequence should imply that I can correct to five clubs if it looks right. I might be 4-4-0-5 after all. My spade suit is a bit weak for a four-three fit, so I'm not too happy about playing four spades. But playing clubs a level higher doesn't look any better. And, even if it did, I doubt partner and I are on the same wavelength. I just have to pass and
hope for the best.</p><p>
I pass, and RHO leads the club deuce.
</p>
<div align="center"><table><tbody>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">NORTH<br />
<i>Phillip</i><br />
♠ Q 9 8 2<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> A K 10 8<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> 9<br />
♣ K Q 9 6<br />
<br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">SOUTH<br />
<i>Robot</i><br />
♠ A J 10<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> J 7 6<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> A J 8 7 6 5 3<br />
♣ --<br />
<br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
</tbody></table></div>
<table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="width: 300px;">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td align="direction in globals.directions:left" width="25%"><b>West</b></td>
<td align="direction in globals.directions:left" width="25%"><b>North</b></td>
<td align="direction in globals.directions:left" width="25%"><b>East</b></td>
<td align="direction in globals.directions:left" width="25%"><b>South</b></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="25%"><i>Robot</i></td>
<td align="left" width="25%"><i>Phillip</i></td>
<td align="left" width="25%"><i>Robot</i></td>
<td align="left" width="25%"><i>Robot</i></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="25%">Pass</td>
<td align="left" width="25%">1 ♣</td>
<td align="left" width="25%">Pass</td>
<td align="left" width="25%">1 <span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="25%">Pass</td>
<td align="left" width="25%">1 <span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span></td>
<td align="left" width="25%">Pass</td>
<td align="left" width="25%">1 ♠</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="25%">Pass</td>
<td align="left" width="25%">3 ♠</td>
<td align="left" width="25%">Pass</td>
<td align="left" width="25%">4 <span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="25%">Pass</td>
<td align="left" width="25%">4 <span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span></td>
<td align="left" width="25%">Pass</td>
<td align="left" width="25%">4 ♠</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="25%">(All pass)</td>
<td align="left" width="25%"> </td>
<td align="left" width="25%"> </td>
<td align="left" width="25%"> </td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<p>With a club void and the knowledge that his diamond suit is worthless, partner made a good decision to avoid three notrump. I'm still not sure what he had in mind with four diamonds. Why not just raise three spades to four? Or, if four diamonds was intended as choice-of-games, why not respect my choice and pass four hearts?</p><p>I happy he didn't pass four hearts. Four spades looks like a better spot. I have two hearts tricks, one diamond trick, and one club trick after I ruff out East's ace. I need six trump tricks to make this. I can score three club ruffs in my hand. As long as I can ruff
one diamond with my trump deuce. I can score three trump tricks in dummy. And here I thought my spades weren't good enough for a four-three fit. The nine-eight of spades turn out to be important cards.
</p><p>
Is making four good enough? What happens in three notrump? If you can take four spades and four hearts, a club, and a diamond, you can make four notrump. But that takes a lot of good luck. More likely three notrump makes only
three or possibly even goes down. So I needn't worry about overtricks in four spades. I'll pretend I'm playing IMPs and try to maximize my chance of making this.
</p><p>
How might I go down? Given the lead of the club deuce, each defender should have at least three clubs, so I don't have to worry about a club's being overruffed. Someone might have a stiff diamond, but it's hard
to see that I can do anything about that. Can I do anything about a stiff heart? </p><p>If I'm lucky enough that the stiff heart is the queen, perhaps I can. Let's say I ruff out East's club ace, then play a heart to my hand and the queen drops. I'll have four hearts tricks, so perhaps I can switch plans, playing for control. I ruff a club with the spade ace, then lead the jack of spades, overtaking with
the queen if East plays low. I should be able to hold the defense to the spade king, one heart ruff, and one club trick at the end.
</p><p>
I play the club king from dummy. East covers with the ace, and I ruff with the spade ten. I lead the six of hearts--deuce--king--four. No stiff queen. I have to hope the second heart holds up.</p><p>I could
cash the club queen, but I'm not sure what I want to pitch yet. Since I know no one has a doubleton club, cashing the queen can wait. I lead the
six of clubs--four--spade jack--club seven. Now another heart. I might as well lead the jack. I don't think West will cover with king-ten in the dummy. But who knows? West plays the three on my jack. I go up with the ace, and East drops the five. I cash the club queen, pitching a heart from my hand. East play the three; West, the eight.
</p><p>
Here is the current position, with the lead in dummy:
</p><div align="center"><table><tbody>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">NORTH<br />
<i>Phillip</i><br />
♠ Q 9 8 2<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> 10 8<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> 9<br />
♣ 9<br />
<br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">SOUTH<br />
<i>Robot</i><br />
♠ A <br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> --<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> A J 8 7 6 5 3<br />
♣ --<br />
</td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
</tbody></table></div>
<p>
I need to ruff the diamond now. I don't want to ruff something in my hand and give an opponent a chance to pitch a diamond. I play a diamond to the ace, East contributes the king, and West follows
with the four. Now another diamond--ten--spade deuce--diamond deuce. I'm home. I ruff a club with the spade ace and have two trump tricks in dummy coming to me. Making four
</p>
<div align="center"><table><tbody>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">NORTH<br />
<i>Phillip</i><br />
♠ Q 9 8 2<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> A K 10 8<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> 9<br />
♣ K Q 9 6<br />
<br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125">WEST<br />
<i>Robot</i><br />
♠ K 5 4<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> Q 3 2<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> Q 10 4<br />
♣ 8 7 5 2<br />
<br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">EAST<br />
<i>Robot</i><br />
♠ 7 6 3<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> 9 5 4<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> K 2<br />
♣ A J 10 4 3<br />
<br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">SOUTH<br />
<i>Robot</i><br />
♠ A J 10<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> J 7 6<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> A J 8 7 6 5 3<br />
♣ --<br />
</td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
</tbody></table></div>
<p>I could have made five by taking the heart finesse. But that would be dangerous and greedy. Plus 620 is worth 89%. </p><p>No one duplicated my auction. I'm not surprised. In retrospect, I think I should have bid two spades, not three. I stand behind my earlier rant in principle. When you have a descriptive bid available, you shouldn't shy away from it just because it takes up bidding space. But there is a special consideration in this auction that I didn't think about at the time. What if partner was preparing a forcing heart raise? He no longer has a forcing bid in hearts available, so he will have to guess how many hearts to bid. Since partner might have a plan, I shouldn't get in his way. </p><p>
Still, I think either two spades or three spades is a better choice than the misdescriptive one notrump that was the most popular call. And much better than the unilateral three notrump, a frequent choice that I don't understand at all. Either of those rebids lands you in three notrump.<br /><br />What happens after two spades? Partner bids two notrump, then removes your three notrump to four hearts. Two players played four hearts after this sequence. One made it and one went down two.</p><p>I understand partner can't bid three hearts over two spades, since that should show a prepared raise with four trumps. So a temporizing two notrump makes sense. But it does seem better to remove three notrump to four diamonds, offering partner a choice of majors. Apparently the robot believed he had to make the choice himself. It's interesting that on my auction partner guessed to play spades but after a two-spade bid he guessed to play hearts.</p>Phillip Martinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12686740850642509457noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6167918454701652348.post-30160363724776672412024-01-28T09:19:00.000-05:002024-01-28T09:19:35.256-05:00Free Weekly Instant Tournament - January 18 - Board 1
<p style="font-weight: bold; text-align: left;">
<a href="https://www.bridgebase.com/tools/handviewer.html?lin=pn|PSMartin,~~M18008i2,~~M18475xu,~~M18773k1|st||md|3SAJ863HAKQ3DTCJT4,SKHT942DAKQJ874C8,S75HJ86D9652C9753,SQT942H75D3CAKQ62|sv|o|rh||ah|Board%201|mb|P|mb|1S|an|Major%20suit%20opening%20--%205+%20!S;%2011-21%20HCP;%2012-22%20total%20points%20|mb|P|mb|2D|an|Forcing%20two%20over%20one%20--%2013+%20HCP;%20biddable%20!D;%2014+%20total%20points;%20forcing%20to%203N%20|mb|P|mb|2S|an|Opener%20rebids%20suit%20--%203-%20!H;%205+%20!S;%2011-21%20HCP;%2012-22%20total%20points;%20forcing%20to%203N%20|mb|P|mb|3H|an|5+%20!D;%204+%20!H;%2013+%20HCP;%2014+%20total%20points;%20forcing%20to%203N%20|mb|P|mb|3N|an|3-%20!H;%205-6%20!S;%2012-19%20HCP;%2022-%20total%20points;%20likely%20stop%20in%20!C%20|mb|P|mb|P|mb|P|pc|HQ|pc|H2|pc|H6|pc|H7|pc|HA|pc|H4|pc|H8|pc|H5|pc|HK|pc|H9|pc|HJ|pc|S2|pc|SA|pc|SK|pc|S7|pc|S4|pc|CJ|pc|C8|pc|C5|pc|CA|pc|CK|pc|C4|pc|D4|pc|C9|pc|SQ|pc|S3|pc|D7|pc|S5|pc|CQ|pc|CT|pc|D8|pc|C3|pc|D3|mc|9|
">
Board 1</a><br />Neither side vulnerable</p>
<table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="width: 300px;"><tbody><tr><td align="center" width="100%">♠ A J 8 6 3 <span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> A K Q 3 <span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> 10 ♣ J 10 4 </td></tr></tbody></table>
<p>
Partner passes, and RHO opens with one spade. That's my primary suit, so I pass. Perhaps the auction will proceed one notrump--pass--two diamonds, in which case I can double for takeout. It doesn't. LHO bids two diamonds, and RHO bids two spades.
</p><p>
The opponents are now in a game force. There is no reason for me to get involved. I pass, LHO bids three hearts, and RHO bids three notrump, which ends the auction.
</p><p>
We have four cashing tricks. There are two ways to go after a fifth.
</p><p>
One possibility is to try for four heart tricks. I can lead a heart honor, hoping partner holds the jack or that he holds the ten and declarer holds a singleton or doubleton jack. If dummy's diamonds are running, this
is probably our only chance to beat this contract.</p><p>
Another possibility is to hope dummy's diamonds are <i>not </i>running. If so, then declarer can't develop diamonds or spades without giving the defense a fifth trick. In this scenario, a heart lead isn't necessary and might actually hurt. If one heart trick is all declarer needs to come to nine tricks, then a heart lead may make it easy for him. A passive club lead is safer.</p><p>
Which approach offers the better chance? Partner has an average of about two and a half hearts to the opponents' six and a half. The chance of finding him with the heart jack is slim. But my stiff diamond bodes
well for the possibility that partner can stop the diamond suit. If I held two or three diamonds, I would certainly lead a heart honor. But, holding the stiff ten, I think a club lead
offers our best chance to beat this.
</p><p>
This isn't IMPs, however. Beating the contract isn't our only consideration. If partner can't stop diamonds, declarer may have ten or more tricks off the top. If that's the case, we do better to cash our four
tricks.
</p><p>
At matchpoints, a high heart has two chances to be right: (1) It could be right to cash out to hold the overtricks. (2) I could get lucky and beat it. At IMPs, I would lead the club jack. But at matchpoints, a heart looks like a better choice.
</p><p>
Which heart should I lead? With a robot partner it doesn't matter, since robots don't signal at trick one. But let's indulge in a fantasy for a moment and pretend that we are playing with a real partner. Which honor will elicit a
meaningful signal? Specifically, which card will get partner to encourage with jack third, so I can underlead and cash five tricks?
</p><p>
The standard choice from ace-king-queen is the king. But if I lead the king, partner will probably think he needs the queen to encourage. What if I lead the queen? If partner holds he jack, he will know
that's the card I'm looking for and will encourage. If declarer has the jack, partner won't know I've made a funny lead and will have no clue what's going on. But it doesn't matter.
He has nothing in the suit, so he will discourage.
</p><p>
True, the queen normally asks partner to <i>drop </i>the jack if he holds it. You would choose the queen from KQ109x. for example. But dummy's heart length will prevent partner from doing that. This "can-I-underlead?" signal is routine when you are sitting over dummy and need to find an entry in partner's hand. You lead king from AK, queen from AKQ; or jack from AKQJ. If partner has the honor
just below the one you lead, he encourages. It's rare to make this play on opening lead, since partner usually won't be able to read it. But if the auction and dummy make it clear what's going on, as it should here, it can be the only way to find out what you need to know.</p><p>
I lead the heart queen and find the following dummy:
</p>
<div align="center"><table><tbody>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">NORTH<br />
<i>Robot</i><br />
♠ K<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> 10 9 4 2<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> A K Q J 8 7 4<br />
♣ 8<br />
<br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125">WEST<br />
<i>Phillip</i><br />
♠ A J 8 6 3<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> A K Q 3<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> 10<br />
♣ J 10 4<br />
<br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
</tbody></table></div>
<table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="width: 300px;">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td align="direction in globals.directions:left" width="25%"><b>West</b></td>
<td align="direction in globals.directions:left" width="25%"><b>North</b></td>
<td align="direction in globals.directions:left" width="25%"><b>East</b></td>
<td align="direction in globals.directions:left" width="25%"><b>South</b></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="25%"><i>Phillip</i></td>
<td align="left" width="25%"><i>Robot</i></td>
<td align="left" width="25%"><i>Robot</i></td>
<td align="left" width="25%"><i>Robot</i></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="25%"> </td>
<td align="left" width="25%"> </td>
<td align="left" width="25%">Pass</td>
<td align="left" width="25%">1 ♠</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="25%">Pass</td>
<td align="left" width="25%">2 <span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span></td>
<td align="left" width="25%">Pass</td>
<td align="left" width="25%">2 ♠</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="25%">Pass</td>
<td align="left" width="25%">3 <span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span></td>
<td align="left" width="25%">Pass</td>
<td align="left" width="25%">3 NT</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="25%">(All pass)</td>
<td align="left" width="25%"> </td>
<td align="left" width="25%"> </td>
<td align="left" width="25%"> </td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<p>
Partner can't stop diamonds, so declarer will take lots of tricks when he gets in. I need to decide whether to play partner for the heart jack and try to beat this or simply to cash out.
</p><p>
Partner plays the heart six; declarer, the seven. Partner should have either J65, J6, or 86. If he has J65, I can underlead now or at trick three. But if he has a doubleton, I must decide now. If he has J6
I must underlead; if he has 86, I must continue cashing. It would appear to be a fifty-fifty guess. But it isn't. Even if I knew for a fact that partner had J6, it's not clear
I should underlead, since partner won't know what to return. If he returns a club, I would have done better to cash out. Since an underlead loses if partner
has 86 and might lose even if he has J6, the underlead is less than 50%. My best play is to cash another heart, then underlead if partner completes an echo by playing the five.
</p><p>
Since I have a choice of honors to cash, I can give suit preference by cashing the ace. Now partner will know which suit to return when he wins the heart jack. I cash the heart ace. Partner plays the eight; declarer, the seven. Now I know partner began with 86, so I can cash out. </p><p> OK. It's time to exit our fantasy and stop pretending partner is actually signaling. My robot partner
could easily hold the jack. In fact, he's a slight favorite to, since declarer holds at least three more spades than partner. Should I underlead on that basis?
</p><p>
I still
have the issue that, if I underlead, partner won't know which suit to return, since this partner won't interpret my heart ace as suit preference.
Since the underlead could lose a trick even when it's right, it looks better to cash out. I cash the heart king. Unfortunately, it's partner who holds the jack. Declarer follows with the spade deuce.</p><p>
My only chance to beat his now is that declarer is void in diamonds. I cash the spade ace and exit with the jack of clubs. Declarer has the rest. Making three.
</p>
<div align="center"><table><tbody>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">NORTH<br />
<i>Robot</i><br />
♠ K<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> 10 9 4 2<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> A K Q J 8 7 4<br />
♣ 8<br />
<br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125">WEST<br />
<i>Phillip</i><br />
♠ A J 8 6 3<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> A K Q 3<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> 10<br />
♣ J 10 4<br />
<br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">EAST<br />
<i>Robot</i><br />
♠ 7 5<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> J 8 6<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> 9 6 5 2<br />
♣ 9 7 5 3<br />
<br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">SOUTH<br />
<i>Robot</i><br />
♠ Q 10 9 4 2<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> 7 5<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> 3<br />
♣ A K Q 6 2<br />
</td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
</tbody></table></div>
<p>
Even though we can beat this with accurate defense, holding it to three is worth 71%. Two defenders did play partner for the heart jack, but it did neither of them any good. One led the heart ace, then, at trick two, continued
with a low
heart. East won the jack and shifted to the club nine, so declarer made four. What was East playing for with that club shift? If declarer has both black aces, he's cold. And if partner has either one, a heart return
suffices. Was he greedily playing for down two, hoping his partner had ace-queen of clubs?
</p><p>
The other defender led a low heart at trick one! That's a play that didn't occur to me. It does have a couple of things going for it. (1) If partner has jack doubleton, he can win and return a heart, avoiding the problem
of his finding the right shift. And (2) if dummy has the jack and partner has the ten, declarer is unlikely to go up. Still, if I were going to try to beat this contract with no
concern about giving up overtricks, I think a club lead offers a better chance.
</p><p>
West must have been quite pleased with himself when his partner won with the heart jack at trick one. And quite displeased with partner
when he shifted to the club nine at trick two.
</p><p>
What would happen opposite a reliable partner? Weirdly, I have a much harder decision at trick two. Partner will play the heart <i>eight </i>on my queen, and I will know he has the jack. If he has
jack third, it makes no difference what I do at trick two. So let's assume he has jack doubleton. </p><p>Should I guarantee four tricks by cashing the ace, or should I lead a heart to his jack and hold my breath? If he returns a spade, we'll beat it. If he returns a club, they'll make an overtrick. </p><p>
As we saw earlier, if I don't know whether partner has the jack or not, underleading is anti-percentage. But now I <i>know </i>he has the jack, so the situation is different. I have just as much to gain as to lose by underleading. So, if it's a tossup which suit partner will return, I'm on a complete guess.</p><p>At least that's true against every table where West leads a heart. But not every West will lead a heart. Some Wests will lead the club jack. Against those tables, if I underlead and get a club shift, I convert a win into a tie. But if I underlead and get a spade shift, I gain nothing. I already had the board won against those tables just by cashing out. So, if I assume it's a tossup whether partner will do the right thing,
my percentage play is to cash the heart ace, winning against the tables where West led a club and tying (on average) against the tables where West led a heart.</p><p>
But <i>is</i> it a tossup whether partner will do the right thing? Maybe not. Partner probably knows I have more spades than clubs--or at least that my expected spade length is greater than my expected club length. So if I lead to his stiff heart jack, he should return a spade, playing me for the ace I'm more likely to hold.</p><p>
While some West's will lead the club jack, I doubt many will. Most defenders will see their ace-king-queen and stop thinking. So, if we trust partner, I think the underlead is the right play.</p>Phillip Martinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12686740850642509457noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6167918454701652348.post-35513031764782366402024-01-21T13:31:00.001-05:002024-01-21T13:31:26.899-05:00Free Weekly Instant Tournament - December 1 - Board 8
<p style="font-weight: bold; text-align: left;">
<a href="https://www.bridgebase.com/tools/handviewer.html?lin=st||pn|PSMartin,~~M167524r,~~M17775sq,~~M17967r3|md|2SQJ76HAT83DKCAT65,S954HKQJ5D83CK872,SAT3H642DAT42CJ43,SK82H97DQJ9765CQ9|sv|o|rh||ah|Board%208|mb|P|mb|P|mb|2D|an|Weak%20two%20diamond%20--%201-4%20!C;%206+%20!D;%201-3%20!H;%201-3%20!S;%2010-%20HCP;%207+%20total%20points%20|mb|D|an|3-5%20!C;%202-%20!D;%203-4%20!H;%203-4%20!S;%2013+%20total%20points|mb|P|mb|P|mb|P|pc|SQ|pc|S4|pc|ST|pc|SK|pc|S2|pc|S6|pc|S9|pc|SA|pc|S3|pc|S8|pc|SJ|pc|S5|pc|CA|pc|C2|pc|C3|pc|C9|pc|HA|pc|H5|pc|H2|pc|H7|pc|H3|pc|HK|pc|H6|pc|H9|pc|D3|pc|D2|pc|DQ|pc|DK|pc|H8|pc|HQ|pc|H4|pc|CQ|pc|D8|pc|D4|pc|D6|pc|HT|pc|CK|pc|C4|pc|D9|pc|C5|pc|D7|pc|C6|pc|C7|pc|DT|pc|CJ|pc|DJ|pc|CT|pc|C8|pc|D5|pc|S7|pc|HJ|pc|DA|
">
Board 8</a><br />Neither side vulnerable</p>
<table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="width: 300px;"><tbody><tr><td align="center" width="100%">♠ Q J 7 6 <span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> A 10 8 3 <span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> K ♣ A 10 6 5 </td></tr></tbody></table>
<p>RHO opens with two diamonds, weak, in third seat. I double for takeout, and everyone passes. This is a promising development. I have a better hand for defense than for offense. I'm especially happy to be holding the diamond king, since it may prove to be an embarrassing surprise for declarer. We may score a trick we aren't entitled to if he plays partner for this card.</p><p>
The right defense must be to take whatever side-suit tricks we can, then sit back and wait for our trump tricks. I want to develop spade tricks before my aces are knocked out, so I lead the spade queen.</p>
<div align="center"><table><tbody>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">NORTH<br />
<i>Robot</i><br />
♠ 9 5 4<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> K Q J 5<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> 8 3<br />
♣ K 8 7 2<br />
<br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125">WEST<br />
<i>Phillip</i><br />
♠ Q J 7 6<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> A 10 8 3<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> K<br />
♣ A 10 6 5<br />
<br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
</tbody></table></div>
<table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="width: 300px;">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td align="direction in globals.directions:left" width="25%"><b>West</b></td>
<td align="direction in globals.directions:left" width="25%"><b>North</b></td>
<td align="direction in globals.directions:left" width="25%"><b>East</b></td>
<td align="direction in globals.directions:left" width="25%"><b>South</b></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="25%"><i>Phillip</i></td>
<td align="left" width="25%"><i>Robot</i></td>
<td align="left" width="25%"><i>Robot</i></td>
<td align="left" width="25%"><i>Robot</i></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="25%"> </td>
<td align="left" width="25%">Pass</td>
<td align="left" width="25%">Pass</td>
<td align="left" width="25%">2 <span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="25%">Double</td>
<td align="left" width="25%">(All pass)</td>
<td align="left" width="25%"> </td>
<td align="left" width="25%"> </td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<p>
Dummy and I have 23 HCP combined. Declarer has at most ten, so partner has at least seven. Partner would probably have bid a four-card major
or a five-card club suit in preference to passing with only four diamonds, so he is either 3-3-4-3, 3-2-4-4, or 2-3-4-4. No. I take that back. 2-3-4-4 is unlikely, since that gives declarer four spades. </p><p>It's even more unlikely after trick one.
Partner plays the spade ten and declarer wins with the king. Partner has apparently ducked with ace third to preserve communication. We would appear to have two spade tricks, two aces, and whatever we can take in the trump suit. </p><p>Is it possible to take another trick in the side suits? We might have a second club trick if declarer is 3-1-6-3. That gives partner four hearts, which I said he can't have. But if his diamonds are good, he might have judged to pass rather than to bid two hearts with four small. Even if that's the layout, though, declarer will just play a heart at trick two and we can't get at our second club trick fast enough. </p><p>Even if declarer has doesn't have a singleton heart, he will probably lead a heart at trick two to reach dummy for a diamond play. No. He surprises me by leading the spade deuce. I'm not sure what he's up to, but I duck to let partner win the trick. How partner chooses to continue the defense may tell me something. Partner takes the spade ace and returns the three
to my jack.</p><p>
If partner is 3-2-4-4, can I give him a heart ruff? Suppose I shift to a low heart. Then, whenever I get in, I can cash both aces and play a third heart. </p><p>A low heart shift would prove embarrassing if declarer has a singleton heart. I expected him to play a heart at trick two with a singleton. But if he has no late club loser (queen-jack third of clubs, say), he has no reason to do that. So a singleton heart is still possible.</p><p>One thing to consider: Partner doesn't appear to want a heart ruff. He could have shifted to a heart himself at trick three and chose to continue spades instead. So either he doesn't have a doubleton heart or he has one but would be ruffing with a natural trump trick. So let's forget about a heart ruff.</p><p>
My goal, then, is to protect whatever trump tricks we have. The way to protect our trump tricks is to prevent declarer from reaching dummy twice. There are two scenarios where this could be important: (1) Declarer needs to lead trumps twice from dummy to finesse against partner, or (2) declarer needs to ruff himself down to partner's trump length for a possible trump coup.</p><p>If declarer is two-two in hearts and clubs, I can't prevent him from reaching dummy twice. If he's three-one or one-three, perhaps I can.</p><p>I'll start by cashing my two aces. If I continue by leading declarer's singleton, he can win that trick in dummy, then later reach dummy in the other suit. If I continue by leading his <i>three</i>-card suit, he can't reach dummy twice. If his three-card suit is clubs, he has only one entry. If it's hearts, partner will ruff the third round.</p><p>So which suit is more likely to be his singleton? If he has a singleton heart, he must have good clubs, else, as I've already noted, he would have led a heart at trick two to set up discards. If he has a singleton club, there is no further constraint on his hand. So a singleton club is more likely. My best defense is to cash two aces, then play a heart.</p><p>I cash the club ace. Partner plays the three; declarer, the nine. Now the heart ace. Partner plays the deuce; declarer, the seven. We've reached this position:</p>
<div align="center"><table><tbody>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">NORTH<br />
<i>Robot</i><br />
♠ --<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> K Q J<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> 8 3<br />
♣ K 8 7<br />
<br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125">WEST<br />
<i>Phillip</i><br />
♠ 7<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> 10 8 3<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> K<br />
♣ 10 6 5<br />
</td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
</tbody></table></div>
<p>I lead the three of hearts. Six from partner; nine from
declarer. Declarer plays the three of diamonds from dummy--deuce--queen--king.
</p><p>
I exit with a third heart. Declarer wins in dummy and pitches the club queen. Declarer was two-two in the round suits, so he always had two dummy entries. Now he leads the eight of diamond from dummy and floats it. It wins, but declarer is now trump tight. He must ruff the next trick and lead from his hand. Partner has the ace-ten of diamonds left, so declarer is down two.</p>
<div align="center"><table><tbody>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">NORTH<br />
<i>Robot</i><br />
♠ 9 5 4<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> K Q J 5<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> 8 3<br />
♣ K 8 7 2<br />
<br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125">WEST<br />
<i>Phillip</i><br />
♠ Q J 7 6<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> A 10 8 3<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> K<br />
♣ A 10 6 5<br />
<br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">EAST<br />
<i>Robot</i><br />
♠ A 10 3<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> 6 4 2<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> A 10 4 2<br />
♣ J 4 3<br />
<br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">SOUTH<br />
<i>Robot</i><br />
♠ K 8 2<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> 9 7<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> Q J 9 7 6 5<br />
♣ Q 9<br />
</td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
</tbody></table></div>
<p>Declarer should have held this to down one by taking a first-round finesse against the diamond ten. Diamonds must be four-one, and I'm twice as likely to have a stiff ace or king as a stiff ten. Having failed to do that, finessing the diamond on the next round was an error. There is no longer anything he can do about four-one trumps. So his percentage play is to lead to the jack, hoping I had king-ten doubleton.</p><p>This is another flaw in how the robots are programmed. South "knows" East has ace-ten third of diamonds left, so he thinks it doesn't matter how he plays the diamond suit. He presumably picks a line at random. But you should never assume your play doesn't matter. If you think it does, relax your assumptions. Find some layout, even one you think is impossible, where your play does matter. If you're correct and it doesn't matter, what have you lost?<br /><br />To be fair, I've been guilty of this mistake myself. Playing bridge is all about making deductions, and it can be easy to forget that something you think you know is merely a deduction. But at least we humans know it's a mistake and try to avoid it. The robots don't.</p><p>Some
declarers did hold this to down one, but that was because West made it easy for them by leading the diamond king. I don't understand that lead at all. Why squander your best defensive asset? You don't expect dummy to be getting any ruffs, so what's the point of leading trumps? It must be better to hope to capture some card in declarer's hand than to cash the king at trick one and catch air. Thanks to those opening leads, plus 200 scored 96%.</p><p>
I said earlier that it might be right to prevent declarer from reaching dummy twice to stop a trump coup against partner. Is there some layout where that's necessary? I didn't construct one at the time. Let's see if we can find one now. There are probably several. But one will suffice:</p>
<div align="center"><table><tbody>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">NORTH<br />
<i>Robot</i><br />
♠ --<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> K Q J<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> 8 3<br />
♣ K 8 7<br />
<br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125">WEST<br />
<i>Phillip</i><br />
♠ 7<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> 10 8 3<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> K<br />
♣ 10 6 5<br />
<br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">EAST<br />
<i>Robot</i><br />
♠ --<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> 6<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> Q J 9 2<br />
♣ Q J 4<br />
<br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">SOUTH<br />
<i>Robot</i><br />
♠ --<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> 9 4<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> A 10 7 6 5 3<br />
♣ --<br />
</td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
</tbody></table></div>
<p>
If I exit with a club, declarer wins the king, pitching a heart, ruffs a club, plays a heart to dummy, and scores another ruff. Now he exits with a low diamond to my king. His last three cards are ace-ten third of diamonds;
partner's are queen-jack-nine of diamonds. With me on lead, partner can take only one more trump trick. A spade exit will lead to the same position on a different sequence of plays. But if I exit with a heart, declarer can't score two ruffs, so this end position doesn't materialize and we score
<i>three </i>trump tricks. </p><p>In accordance with Gargoyle Chronicles principles, I omitted this analysis in the discussion of the play, since I didn't construct this layout at the time. I was defending on general principles. As a rule,
I don't like to defend on general principles. It's better to construct a layout where your contemplated play gains, since general principles can sometimes lead you astray. Here, however, there was no need, since there was no sensible alternative line to consider. Either I let declarer trump coup partner or I don't. Even if there is no holding where a coup actually works, it's hard to see how preventing the position from arising can ever hurt.<br /><br />Next week I'll start a series on this week's Weekly Free Instant Tournament. If you want to compare results, be sure to play in the tournament by this Thursday, January 25. </p>Phillip Martinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12686740850642509457noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6167918454701652348.post-56526061436870263602024-01-14T09:26:00.000-05:002024-01-14T09:26:42.388-05:00Free Weekly Instant Tournament - December 1 - Board 7
<p style="font-weight: bold; text-align: left;">
<a href="https://www.bridgebase.com/tools/handviewer.html?lin=st||pn|PSMartin,~~M167524r,~~M17775sq,~~M17967r3|md|1SJT5HA75DAKT6CKJ3,SQ96H9D9854CA8642,S8743HKJ32DJCQT97,SAK2HQT864DQ732C5|sv|b|rh||ah|Board%207|mb|1N|an|notrump%20opener.%20Could%20have%205M.%20--%202-5%20!C;%202-5%20!D;%202-5%20!H;%202-5%20!S;%2015-|mb|P|mb|P|mb|P|pc|D4|pc|DJ|pc|DQ|pc|DK|pc|CK|pc|C2|pc|C7|pc|C5|pc|C3|pc|C8|pc|C9|pc|H4|pc|CT|pc|D2|pc|CJ|pc|CA|pc|S9|pc|S3|pc|SK|pc|ST|pc|D7|pc|DA|pc|D5|pc|S4|pc|DT|pc|D8|pc|S7|pc|D3|pc|H5|pc|H9|pc|HK|pc|H6|pc|CQ|pc|HT|pc|D6|pc|C6|pc|H2|pc|H8|pc|HA|pc|C4|pc|H7|pc|S6|pc|H3|pc|HQ|pc|SA|pc|S5|pc|SQ|pc|S8|pc|S2|pc|SJ|pc|D9|pc|HJ|
">
Board 7</a><br />Both sides vulnerable</p>
<table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="width: 300px;"><tbody><tr><td align="center" width="100%">♠ J 10 5 <span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> A 7 5 <span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> A K 10 6 ♣ K J 3 </td></tr></tbody></table>
<p>
I open with one notrump in first seat and everyone passes. LHO leads the four of diamonds.
</p>
<div align="center"><table><tbody>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">NORTH<br />
<i>Robot</i><br />
♠ 8 7 4 3<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> K J 3 2<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> J<br />
♣ Q 10 9 7<br />
<br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">SOUTH<br />
<i>Phillip</i><br />
♠ J 10 5<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> A 7 5<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> A K 10 6<br />
♣ K J 3<br />
<br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
</tbody></table></div>
<table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="width: 300px;">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td align="direction in globals.directions:left" width="25%"><b>West</b></td>
<td align="direction in globals.directions:left" width="25%"><b>North</b></td>
<td align="direction in globals.directions:left" width="25%"><b>East</b></td>
<td align="direction in globals.directions:left" width="25%"><b>South</b></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="25%"><i>Robot</i></td>
<td align="left" width="25%"><i>Robot</i></td>
<td align="left" width="25%"><i>Robot</i></td>
<td align="left" width="25%"><i>Phillip</i></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="25%"> </td>
<td align="left" width="25%"> </td>
<td align="left" width="25%"> </td>
<td align="left" width="25%">1 NT</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="25%">(All pass)</td>
<td align="left" width="25%"> </td>
<td align="left" width="25%"> </td>
<td align="left" width="25%"> </td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<p>
I have three diamond tricks, three clubs once I knock out the ace, and two hearts. Eight tricks. When the opponents take the club ace, they will have spade winners to cash. If they can cash four of them, they can hold
me to eight tricks. If they can't, I can try a heart finesse for a ninth. If spades are three-three, it's possible I can set up my fourth spade for a ninth trick. But it seems unlikely I will have the tempo to do that. The opponents
can probably establish a fifth trick in diamonds before the long spade is established.
</p><p>
I play the diamond jack from dummy and RHO covers with the queen. If I held the ace without the king, I would sometimes duck. I would almost never duck holding the king without the ace. So the ace is a more revealing card. Accordingly, I win with the king.</p><p>
The three and deuce of diamonds are still out. If the lead is low, West could have anywhere from three to six diamonds.
</p><p>
I want the opponents to take the club ace early to give me some flexibility. Leading the club king is the likeliest way to achieve that. If LHO has ace third, he may be afraid to duck for fear his partner has jack third and I will somehow figure that out.
</p><p>
I lead the club king--deuce--seven--five. That didn't work. Now what? If I lead the jack to the queen, they will probably duck again. But if I lead low to the nine, East might win with an original holding of ace third for fear his partner started with jack fourth.
</p><p>
I play the club three--eight--nine--four of hearts.
</p><p>So West started with five clubs. East is probably pitching lowest from a five-card suit, so West has a stiff heart. His most likely patterns
are 4-1-3-5, 3-1-4-5, and 2-1-5-5.
</p><p>
I continue with a low club to my jack. East pitches the diamond deuce. West takes the ace and shifts to the nine of spades. East wins with the king, and I drop
the ten, the card I'm known to hold. Here is the current position with East on lead:</p>
<div align="center"><table><tbody>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">NORTH<br />
<i>Robot</i><br />
♠ 8 7 4<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> K J 3 2<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> --<br />
♣ Q<br />
<br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">SOUTH<br />
<i>Phillip</i><br />
♠ J 5<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> A 7 5<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> A 10 6<br />
♣ --<br />
</td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
</tbody></table></div>
<p>If East's spade king is honest, then West has the queen. I doubt West would lead low from queen-nine doubleton or that he would squander the nine from queen-nine fourth. So if he has the queen, he must have queen-nine third. It's possible, however, that East has false carded. I haven't seen the robots play high from equals at trick one. But I have seen them do so in the middle of the hand.</p><p>
West shifts to the seven of diamonds. I take the ace, and West follows with the five. The three is still out, so I'm still not sure of the diamond count.
</p>
<p>
If East did falsecard from ace-king-queen of spades, perhaps I can endplay him.
I can cash the diamond ten, lead a heart to dummy's king, and cash the club queen, squeezing East out of his long spade if he started with four. This will be the position:
</p>
<div align="center"><table><tbody>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">NORTH<br />
<i>Robot</i><br />
♠ 8<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> J 3 2<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> --<br />
♣ --<br />
<br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">EAST<br />
<i>Robot</i><br />
♠ A Q<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> Q x<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> --<br />
♣ --<br />
<br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">SOUTH<br />
<i>Phillip</i><br />
♠ J 5<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> A 7<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> --<br />
♣ --<br />
</td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
</tbody></table></div>
<p>
Now I can toss East in with a spade.
</p><p>Back to the previous diagram. East has led a diamond to my ace. I pitch a spade from dummy, then cash the diamond ten, pitching another spade. LHO follows with the eight, East with the three. Now that East has shown up with four diamonds, I know the count.
West was 3-1-4-5, leaving East with 3-5-4-1. East's remaining cards are
</p>
<table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="width: 300px;"><tbody><tr><td align="center" width="100%">♠ A ? <span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> Q 10 x x <span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> -- ♣ -- </td></tr></tbody></table>
<p>
If that spade '?' is the queen,
I can lead a heart to the king and exit with a spade. Cashing the club queen in this layout would be a mistake. If West has the spade queen, the defense could then take the rest, and I would lose the heart ace.</p><p>
But would East really have pitched this way with ace-king-queen of spades? He could surely see the endplay coming. Why pitch his diamond exit on the third round of clubs? He would have pitched another
heart instead.
</p><p>
If the endplay isn't working, is there anything I can do? I don't see a legitimate line. But maybe they'll get tangled up in the end position. It's hard
to see how. But the robots don't signal, and they don't draw inferences. It's easy to misdefend under those conditions. I'm fairly sure West has the spade queen. So hoping for a mistake looks like my best shot.</p><p>
I lead the five of hearts--nine--king--six. Now the club queen--heart ten--diamond six--club six. Now a heart back to the ace, as East pitches his last club. If I'm right about the spade queen, this is the position.
</p>
<div align="center"><table><tbody>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">NORTH<br />
<i>Robot</i><br />
♠ 8<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> J 3<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> --<br />
♣ --<br />
<br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125">WEST<br />
<i>Robot</i><br />
♠ Q x<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> --<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> 9<br />
♣ --<br />
<br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">EAST<br />
<i>Robot</i><br />
♠ A x<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> Q<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> --<br />
♣ --<br />
<br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">SOUTH<br />
<i>Phillip</i><br />
♠ J 5<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> 7<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> --<br />
♣ --<br />
</td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
</tbody></table></div>
<p>
If I exit with a spade, the defense can easily take the rest. A heart exit, forcing West to discard, is my only chance.
</p><p>
I lead the seven of hearts, and West pitches the spade six. Aha! That's promising. Now East must win the heart and underlead his spade ace.</p><p>
East wins with the heart queen and cashes the spade ace, dropping his partner's queen. My spade jack scores the last trick. Making three.
</p>
<!--insert full deal--><div align="center"><table><tbody>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">NORTH<br />
<i>Robot</i><br />
♠ 8 7 4 3<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> K J 3 2<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> J<br />
♣ Q 10 9 7<br />
<br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125">WEST<br />
<i>Robot</i><br />
♠ Q 9 6<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> 9<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> 9 8 5 4<br />
♣ A 8 6 4 2<br />
<br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">EAST<br />
<i>Robot</i><br />
♠ A K 2<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> Q 10 8 6 4<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> Q 7 3 2<br />
♣ 5<br />
<br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">SOUTH<br />
<i>Phillip</i><br />
♠ J 10 5<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> A 7 5<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> A K 10 6<br />
♣ K J 3<br />
</td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
</tbody></table></div>
<p>
Plus 150 is worth 86%. West make a foolish play in stiffing his spade queen. This is the robots' greatest weakness on defense: assuming both declarer and partner are double-dummy. Why make a play that forces
partner to do the right thing when you can make a play that leaves him no losing options?
</p><p>
I sympathize with East's play at the end. How could his partner hold the diamond nine and not discard it? My last two cards
must be a spade and a good diamond. And that spade might be the queen. There are clues that isn't the case, but I think most of the blame falls to West.</p><p>I find one of the most difficult plays in bridge is spurning a legitimate but unlikely line in hope of a defensive error. It's one thing when you can see ahead of time the error an opponent might make. It's quite another when, as here, you are just hoping they will find some way to mess up. Ultimately, it's a matter of percentages. What's more likely? That you've misread the position or that the opponents will make a mistake? Sometimes playing for the mistake is the percentage line.</p><p>My former partner Howard Chandross put it more bluntly: "A finesse is only fifty percent," he would say, "but an idiot is always an idiot."</p>Phillip Martinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12686740850642509457noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6167918454701652348.post-3195063759680281862024-01-07T11:10:00.001-05:002024-01-09T11:46:46.953-05:00Free Weekly Instant Tournament - December 1 - Board 6
<p style="font-weight: bold; text-align: left;">
<a href="https://www.bridgebase.com/tools/handviewer.html?lin=st||pn|PSMartin,~~M167524r,~~M17775sq,~~M17967r3|md|4SAJT92H2DK3CAK864,S864HK963DA96CT73,SHJ74DJT8754CQJ52,SKQ753HAQT85DQ2C9|sv|e|rh||ah|Board%206|mb|1S|an|Major%20suit%20opening%20--%205+%20!S;%2011-21%20HCP;%2012-22%20total%20points%20|mb|P|mb|2S|an|Simple%20raise%20--%203+%20!S;%207-10%20total%20points%20|mb|P|mb|P|mb|P|pc|CK|pc|C3|pc|C2|pc|C9|pc|CA|pc|C7|pc|C5|pc|S3|pc|H5|pc|H2|pc|HK|pc|H4|pc|CT|pc|CJ|pc|S5|pc|C4|pc|SK|pc|SA|pc|S6|pc|D8|pc|SJ|pc|S4|pc|D5|pc|SQ|pc|D2|pc|D3|pc|DA|pc|D4|pc|H6|pc|H7|pc|HA|pc|S2|pc|ST|pc|S8|pc|D7|pc|S7|pc|C6|pc|H3|pc|CQ|pc|H8|pc|DJ|pc|DQ|pc|DK|pc|D9|pc|S9|pc|D6|pc|DT|pc|HT|pc|C8|pc|H9|pc|HJ|pc|HQ|
">
Board 6</a><br />Opponents vulnerable</p>
<table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="width: 300px;"><tbody><tr><td align="center" width="100%">♠ A J 10 9 2 <span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> 2 <span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> K 3 ♣ A K 8 6 4 </td></tr></tbody></table>
<p>
RHO opens with one spade. Overcalling with two clubs will be a popular choice, but it's a bad idea. One reason is that the opponents may get into trouble if you stay out of their way. But a more important reason is that a two-club overcall misdescribes your hand.</p><p>When you have two suits of equal length, you bid the higher-ranking one first. The
the way you "bid" a suit an opponent opens in front of you is to start with a pass. If you pass and subsequently take aggressive action,
partner will know spades is your primary suit. He may even elect to play in spades, a result you can't achieve if you overcall with two clubs. This is an important consideration if the opponents play four-card majors or if the opening is in third seat. It is less important otherwise. Even so,
it can't hurt to clue partner in as to what your hand looks like. If you bid two clubs, partner will never play you for a good five-card spade suit.</p><p>I pass, and LHO raises to two spades. Now would be a good time to make an aggressive take-out double, partner. No such luck. Partner and RHO both pass.
</p><p>
One could argue that double here should be for penalties. If you weren't willing to ask partner bid at the two level on the previous round, how could you want him to bid at the three level now?
This is a sound argument in auctions where the opponents haven't found a fit. But when a suit has been bid and raised, it's less compelling.
It's quite
possible that you didn't double the first time not because you couldn't summon up your courage but because you were offshape. Now that the opponents have found a fit, it's likely your side has one as well and you don't want to sell out at a low level. Offshape doubles are easier to handle when you balance, because you can use advancer's two notrump as a scrambling device, an option that isn't available over a direct double.
</p><p>
Note that auctions such as
</p>
<table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="width: 300px;">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td align="direction in globals.directions:left" width="25%"><b>West</b></td>
<td align="direction in globals.directions:left" width="25%"><b>North</b></td>
<td align="direction in globals.directions:left" width="25%"><b>East</b></td>
<td align="direction in globals.directions:left" width="25%"><b>South</b></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="25%"> </td>
<td align="left" width="25%"> </td>
<td align="left" width="25%"> </td>
<td align="left" width="25%">1 ♠</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="25%">Pass</td>
<td align="left" width="25%">1 NT</td>
<td align="left" width="25%">Pass</td>
<td align="left" width="25%">2 ♠</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<p>or </p>
<table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="width: 300px;">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td align="direction in globals.directions:left" width="25%"><b>West</b></td>
<td align="direction in globals.directions:left" width="25%"><b>North</b></td>
<td align="direction in globals.directions:left" width="25%"><b>East</b></td>
<td align="direction in globals.directions:left" width="25%"><b>South</b></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="25%"> </td>
<td align="left" width="25%"> </td>
<td align="left" width="25%"> </td>
<td align="left" width="25%">1 ♠</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="25%">Pass</td>
<td align="left" width="25%">1 NT</td>
<td align="left" width="25%">Pass</td>
<td align="left" width="25%">2 <span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="25%">Pass</td>
<td align="left" width="25%">2 ♠</td>
<td align="left" width="25%">Pass</td>
<td align="left" width="25%">Pass</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<p>are different matters. In these auctions there is no presumption of an eight-card fit. It is more dangerous to act now than it was on the previous round, so playing these doubles for take-out makes no sense.
In fact, the prospect of doubling for penalties on
such an auction is one of the reasons for passing with this hand on the first round.
</p><p>
Unfortunately, as the auction went, I can't double. All I can do is sell out and be satisfied with 100 points per undertrick. Since it's unlikely we can make a game, this will probably be a good result.</p><p>
What should I lead? When you hold <i>four</i> trumps, it's usually right to play a forcing game, leading your long side suit to tap declarer. With <i>five</i> trumps, that's often the wrong approach. One factor to consider
is your trump holding. With a suit like AK432, a forcing game is probably right. You are forcing declarer to ruff with natural trump tricks and promoting your own small trumps. With good spots, however, a forcing game is less appealing. Your trumps are already winners. And if you force declarer, you are allowing him to score small trumps that he might not be able to score without your assistance. </p><p>
Often with five trumps it's better to score ruffs yourself to avoid getting endplayed. Imagine, for example, you come down to a five-card end position consisting of AJ1092 of trumps while declarer comes down to king-queen third of
trumps and two losers. Declarer leads one of his losers. You have to ruff partner's trick and give declarer one of his trump honors. Then declarer leads his other loser. You ruff partner's trick again and have to give declarer
his other trump honor. Clearly you would have done better had you ruffed a couple of declarer's tricks rather than partner's, coming down to ace-jack-ten of trumps, then sat back and waited for your two trump
tricks.
</p><p>
Going for ruffs can be the right defense if your side has tricks to cash off the top. You cash your top tricks, getting some ruffs in the process, then exit. Now declarer is endplayed instead of you. But on this deal partner doesn't have much, so our tricks aren't coming from top cards. Whatever side-suit tricks we have will come from running the club suit. And the only way we can run the club suit is to force declarer to lose control. So a forcing game looks right.</p><p>
I've settled on a club lead. Now which club? When you play a forcing game, it is often right to lead low from your long suit. Since a forcing game is essentially an
attempt to convert the play to notrump, why not lead as if you were defending notrump? But one of the reasons to lead low against notrump is either to avoid blocking the
suit or to retain communication if partner is short. Here, since we know partner is void in spades, it's unlikely partner has short clubs. So it looks better to lead an honor.</p><p>
I know I've spent four paragraphs settling on the lead that most players would choose in half a second. But sometimes one's first instinct is wrong. It's worth thinking about what you are trying accomplish with your opening lead.<br /><br />I lead the club king and see the following dummy:</p>
<div align="center"><table><tbody>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">NORTH<br />
<i>Robot</i><br />
♠ 8 6 4<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> K 9 6 3<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> A 9 6<br />
♣ 10 7 3<br />
<br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125">WEST<br />
<i>Phillip</i><br />
♠ A J 10 9 2<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> 2<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> K 3<br />
♣ A K 8 6 4<br />
<br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
</tbody></table></div>
<table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="width: 300px;">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td align="direction in globals.directions:left" width="25%"><b>West</b></td>
<td align="direction in globals.directions:left" width="25%"><b>North</b></td>
<td align="direction in globals.directions:left" width="25%"><b>East</b></td>
<td align="direction in globals.directions:left" width="25%"><b>South</b></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="25%"><i>Phillip</i></td>
<td align="left" width="25%"><i>Robot</i></td>
<td align="left" width="25%"><i>Robot</i></td>
<td align="left" width="25%"><i>Robot</i></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="25%"> </td>
<td align="left" width="25%"> </td>
<td align="left" width="25%"> </td>
<td align="left" width="25%">1 ♠</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="25%">Pass</td>
<td align="left" width="25%">2 ♠</td>
<td align="left" width="25%">(All pass)</td>
<td align="left" width="25%"> </td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<p>
Partner plays the club deuce, and declarer follows with the nine. I see no reason to abandon my plan. I continue with the ace of clubs. Partner follows with the five and declarer ruffs with the three of spades. Partner has kept
the queen and jack of clubs, blocking the suit. I'm not sure whether I'm happy about that or not. A club entry to his hand might prove useful in getting off a potential endplay in diamonds. But in some scenarios it might prevent me from scoring my long club. Partner might have done better to keep one high club and one low one to give us some flexibility.</p><p>
Declarer leads the five of hearts
to dummy's king. Partner plays the four. I expect declarer to lead a spade off dummy. When partner shows out, he will duck, letting me win the nine. What should I do then?
</p><p>
I don't need to decide that. Declarer surprises me by leading the ten of clubs and ruffing it with the five of spades. What's that all about? What can he have for this line to make any sense?
</p><p>
Declarer now leads the spade king out of his hand. I take my ace, and partner plays the eight of diamonds. The robots play this card as count, and I assume partner would pitch a heart with 0-5-4-4, so it appears he is 0-3-6-4,
giving declarer 5-5-2-1. If so, this is the current position:
</p>
<div align="center"><table><tbody>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">NORTH<br />
<i>Robot</i><br />
♠ 8 4<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> 9 6 3<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> A 9 6<br />
♣ --<br />
<br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125">WEST<br />
<i>Phillip</i><br />
♠ J 10 9 2<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> --<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> K 3<br />
♣ 8 6<br />
<br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">EAST<br />
<i>Robot</i><br />
♠ --<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> ? ?<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> ? ? ? ? ?<br />
♣ Q<br />
<br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">SOUTH<br />
<i>Robot</i><br />
♠ Q 7<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> A ? ? ?<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> ? ?<br />
♣ --<br />
</td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
</tbody></table></div>
<p>I don't want declarer to score any more ruffs. I can lead the jack of spades, ruff declarer's likely heart lead, then draw the remaining trumps. Since I will still have a trump left, I can then lead a club to partner for a diamond play. If partner has the queen of diamonds or the jack-ten, this defense will hold declarer to two more tricks.</p><p>
I lead the jack of spades. Partner pitches the five of diamond and declarer wins with the queen. Declarer doesn't even try to endplay me. He leads a diamond to dummy's ace. We have the rest. Down three.
</p>
<div align="center"><table><tbody>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">NORTH<br />
<i>Robot</i><br />
♠ 8 6 4<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> K 9 6 3<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> A 9 6<br />
♣ 10 7 3<br />
<br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125">WEST<br />
<i>Phillip</i><br />
♠ A J 10 9 2<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> 2<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> K 3<br />
♣ A K 8 6 4<br />
<br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">EAST<br />
<i>Robot</i><br />
♠ --<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> J 7 4<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> J 10 8 7 5 4<br />
♣ Q J 5 2<br />
<br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">SOUTH<br />
<i>Robot</i><br />
♠ K Q 7 5 3<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> A Q 10 8 5<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> Q 2<br />
♣ 9<br />
</td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
</tbody></table></div>
<p>
Plus 300 is worth 86%.</p><p>I still don't understand declarer's line of play. Why not lead a trump toward the king when he's in dummy with the king of hearts? When partner shows out, he will change his mind
about playing the king and duck. Now what do I do? Presumably I will continue the tap with a third club. That will bring declarer down to king-queen tight of spades. Declarer will play the heart ace. I will ruff
and play ace and a spade, drawing declarer's trumps. This will be the position with declarer on lead. Partner might be holding a high club, or he might have pitched it and be holding four diamonds.</p>
<div align="center"><table><tbody>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">NORTH<br />
<i>Robot</i><br />
♠ --<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> 9 6<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> A 9 6<br />
♣ --<br />
<br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125">WEST<br />
<i>Phillip</i><br />
♠ 10<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> --<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> K 3<br />
♣ 8 6<br />
<br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">EAST<br />
<i>Robot</i><br />
♠ --<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> J<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> J 10 8 (x)<br />
♣ (Q)<br />
<br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">SOUTH<br />
<i>Robot</i><br />
♠ --<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> Q 10 8<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> Q 2<br />
♣ --<br />
</td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
</tbody></table></div>
<p>
Declarer now leads the heart queen. If partner has pitched his high club, I can ruff the next heart and cash two clubs. But then I must concede the last two tricks. Down only two. If partner has held onto his high club. I must be careful. If I
ruff, we get only one club trick, and declarer has the rest. Down only one. To beat it two, I must pitch a club, then ruff the next heart, so declarer has no entry to the long heart in his hand. Then I can play a club to partner for a diamond play.</p><p>What happened to those who overcalled with two clubs? LHO bid two spades, partner raised to three clubs, and RHO bid <i>three</i> spades, judging his five-card heart suit compensated for the missing sixth spade.</p><p>So the two-club overcallers did better than I did. Or they could have. Most of them squandered their good fortune by doubling three spades. Doubling can hardly be right. As I said earlier,
partner isn't going to play you for five good spades after you overcall. He'll expect <i>four </i>spades. And South's three-spade bid corroborates that. With the spade void you know he has, there is no way partner will sit for this double. Your should simply pass, happy you pushed the opponents up a level.</p><p>For those of you who scoffed at the idea of a low club lead, let me point out that the double-dummy analyzer reveals that putting partner on play for a diamond switch is the only way to beat this contract legitimately. After the lead of the club king, declarer can make the hand by not touching trumps. Persistently leading hearts hold the defense to four trump tricks and one club. Of course, this is an absurd line of play unless you know trumps are five-zero. Perhaps it's just as well I didn't have a penalty double of two spades available.</p>Phillip Martinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12686740850642509457noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6167918454701652348.post-13469569087203903352023-12-31T13:55:00.000-05:002023-12-31T13:55:54.488-05:00Free Weekly Instant Tournament - December 1 - Board 5
<p style="font-weight: bold; text-align: left;">
<a href="https://www.bridgebase.com/tools/handviewer.html?lin=st||pn|PSMartin,~~M167524r,~~M17775sq,~~M17967r3|md|3SK96HKJ9876DAJCJ5,SJ52HAQT2D8CK8642,SQT874H5DQ753CQ97,SA3H43DKT9642CAT3|sv|n|rh||ah|Board%205|mb|P|mb|P|mb|1H|an|Major%20suit%20opening%20--%205+%20!H;%2011-21%20HCP;%2012-22%20total%20points|mb|P|mb|1S|an|One%20over%20one%20--%204+%20!S;%2011-%20HCP;%206-12%20total%20points%20|mb|2D|an|Two-level%20overcall%20--%205+%20!D;%2010-11%20HCP;%2012-%20total%20points%20|mb|D!|an|Support%20double%20-%203%20S%20--%205+%20!H;%203%20!S;%2011-21%20HCP;%2012-22%20total%20points|mb|P|mb|2S|an|4+%20!S;%206-10%20total%20points%20|mb|P|mb|P|mb|P|pc|H4|pc|H6|pc|HT|pc|H5|pc|D8|pc|D3|pc|DK|pc|DA|pc|S6|pc|S5|pc|S4|pc|SA|pc|D4|pc|DJ|pc|S2|pc|D5|pc|SJ|pc|SQ|pc|S3|pc|S9|pc|C7|pc|C3|pc|CJ|pc|CK|pc|C4|pc|C9|pc|CT|pc|C5|pc|CA|pc|SK|pc|C2|pc|CQ|mc|7|
">
Board 5</a><br />Our side vulnerable</p>
<table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="width: 300px;"><tbody><tr><td align="center" width="100%">♠ K 9 6 <span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> K J 9 8 7 6 <span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> A J ♣ J 5 </td></tr></tbody></table>
<p>
Two passes to me. I open with one heart, LHO passes, and partner bids one spade.</p><p>If RHO passes, my correct rebid is two spades. The spade support is more important than the sixth heart. Why tell partner
about one card in my hand when I can tell him about three?</p><p>It's true that if partner is four-two in the majors with a weak hand, we will play the wrong partscore. But
if partner is five-one in the majors with a weak hand, it's the two heart rebid that will land us in the wrong partscore. If my bid is going to end the auction, it's a tossup which rebid works better. So I should worry about the times my bid <i>doesn't </i>end the auction. In those cases, it will probably work out better if I show my spade support. </p><p>
Unfortunately, the robots play that two spades promises four trumps. If I bid two spades, partner will assume spades are agreed and won't look for another strain. So a two-heart rebid is foisted upon me.
</p><p>
Thankfully, RHO comes to the rescue with a two-diamond overcall. Now I can show my three spades with a support double. It's a weird system where you pray for your opponents to interfere so you can
bid your hand intelligently. Incidentally, the support double solves both of the problem scenarios above. With five spades and a bad hand, partner bids two spades. With four-two in the majors and a bad hand, he bids two hearts. The double leaves room to play either major at the two level.</p><p>
I double. Partner bids two spades, and everyone passes. RHO leads the four of hearts.
</p>
<div align="center"><table><tbody>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">NORTH<br />
<i>Phillip</i><br />
♠ K 9 6<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> K J 9 8 7 6<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> A J<br />
♣ J 5<br />
<br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">SOUTH<br />
<i>Robot</i><br />
♠ Q 10 8 7 4<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> 5<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> Q 7 5 3<br />
♣ Q 9 7<br />
<br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
</tbody></table></div>
<table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="width: 300px;">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td align="direction in globals.directions:left" width="25%"><b>West</b></td>
<td align="direction in globals.directions:left" width="25%"><b>North</b></td>
<td align="direction in globals.directions:left" width="25%"><b>East</b></td>
<td align="direction in globals.directions:left" width="25%"><b>South</b></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="25%"><i>Robot</i></td>
<td align="left" width="25%"><i>Phillip</i></td>
<td align="left" width="25%"><i>Robot</i></td>
<td align="left" width="25%"><i>Robot</i></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="25%"> </td>
<td align="left" width="25%"> </td>
<td align="left" width="25%"> </td>
<td align="left" width="25%">Pass</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="25%">Pass</td>
<td align="left" width="25%">1 <span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span></td>
<td align="left" width="25%">Pass</td>
<td align="left" width="25%">1 ♠</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="25%">2 <span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span></td>
<td align="left" width="25%">Double</td>
<td align="left" width="25%">Pass</td>
<td align="left" width="25%">2 ♠</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="25%">(All pass)</td>
<td align="left" width="25%"> </td>
<td align="left" width="25%"> </td>
<td align="left" width="25%"> </td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<p>
West probably has a singleton heart to be leading dummy's suit. And he probably has six diamonds to be overcalling at the two level with such a bad suit.
Since this is a best-hand tournament, East is limited to 13 HCP, which means West has at least eight. And he shouldn't have more than ten--at least if I'm right he has six diamonds--since he didn't open
with one diamond.</p><p>Is there anything to conclude from the fact that he chose not
to open with <i>two</i> diamonds? Some opponents might be dissuaded by a four-card spade suit. But the robots like to have good suits for weak two-bids, so the fact that the diamond suit
has only one high honor is probably enough of a deterrent for a robot.
</p><p>
I'm off two clubs, a heart, and a spade off the top. Even if I can avoid losing to the jack of spades and can avoid a third club loser, I still must hold my diamond losses to
one trick, which means I need
to ruff one diamond in dummy. That won't be easy.
</p><p>
I play a low heart from dummy. East wins with the ten and shifts to his presumed singleton diamond, the eight. I play low, and West continues to show his Christmas spirit by playing the king. I win with dummy's ace.
</p><p>
Where do I stand now? I'm losing a heart, a spade, two clubs, and a diamond ruff as soon as the opponents get in. I have to take the rest, so I must assume I can avoid a third club loser. I must also assume
the spade jack is on my right. If West has it, East can lead a heart for a trump promotion at some point.
My problem, then, boils down to ruffing my fourth diamond in dummy without getting overruffed.
</p><p>
Suppose I lead the spade king from dummy. Say West wins and gives his partner a diamond ruff. East might now be able to play ace of clubs and a club to the king to score a diamond overruff with the spade jack.
Since I must assume East has the spade jack anyway, I might as well take a first-round finesse against it. Then dummy's spade king will be available for a ruff if necessary.
</p><p>
I lead the spade six from dummy--five--four--ace. West leads the four of diamonds, and East ruffs with the deuce.
</p><p>
West exits with the jack of spades. I play the queen from my hand, East follows, and I play low from dummy. We are down to this position:</p>
<div align="center"><table><tbody>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">NORTH<br />
<i>Phillip</i><br />
♠ K<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> K J 9 8 7<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> --<br />
♣ J 5<br />
<br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">SOUTH<br />
<i>Robot</i><br />
♠ 10 8 7<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> --<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> Q 7<br />
♣ Q 9 7<br />
</td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
</tbody></table></div>
<p>
I can now ruff a diamond in dummy and lead a club to my nine. But trumps are drawn, so there is no hurry to do that. I might as well lead a club toward dummy to give West a chance
to hop with the king.
</p><p>
I lead the seven of clubs--four--jack--king. King? West can't have the ace of clubs.
</p>
<table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="width: 300px;"><tbody><tr><td align="center" width="100%">♠ A x <span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> x <span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> K 10 9 x x x ♣ A x x x </td></tr></tbody></table>
<p>
is a clear an opening bid. So East must have both club honors and has made a careless play, winning with the king instead of the ace.
</p><p>
East now leads the club deuce. This makes no sense. If East were looking at my hand, he would know he could afford to underlead the club ace. He can't lose it, because I need dummy's trump to ruff my diamond loser. But he's not
looking at my hand. For all he knows I have queen ten of diamonds and he's conceding the rest of the tricks. The robots don't think about giving declarer a guess. They worry about what works under the
assumption that declarer is double dummy. Under that assumption, underleading the club ace can cost but can never gain. So, as hard as it is to believe, West must have the club ace.
</p><p>
I play the nine. West wins with the ten and exits with the club ace. I ruff in dummy and concede one trick. Down one.
</p>
<div align="center"><table><tbody>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">NORTH<br />
<i>Phillip</i><br />
♠ K 9 6<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> K J 9 8 7 6<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> A J<br />
♣ J 5<br />
<br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125">WEST<br />
<i>Robot</i><br />
♠ A 3<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> 4 3<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> K 10 9 6 4 2<br />
♣ A 10 3<br />
<br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">EAST<br />
<i>Robot</i><br />
♠ J 5 2<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> A Q 10 2<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> 8<br />
♣ K 8 6 4 2<br />
<br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">SOUTH<br />
<i>Robot</i><br />
♠ Q 10 8 7 4<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> 5<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> Q 7 5 3<br />
♣ Q 9 7<br />
</td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
</tbody></table></div>
<p>West had a doubleton heart, not a singleton. That makes his failure to open a tad more understandable, but only a tad.
</p><p>
After the gift of the diamond king, can I make this if I play West for a doubleton heart? At the point I floated the six of spades, suppose I lead the king of hearts to ruff out East's ace? Then I lead a spade to dummy's king,
reaching this position:
</p>
<div align="center"><table><tbody>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">NORTH<br />
<i>Phillip</i><br />
♠ 9 6<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> J 9 8 7 <br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> J<br />
♣ J 5<br />
<br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125">WEST<br />
<i>Robot</i><br />
♠ A<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> --<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> 10 9 6 4 2<br />
♣ A 10 3<br />
<br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">EAST<br />
<i>Robot</i><br />
♠ J 5<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> Q 2<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> --<br />
♣ K 8 6 4 2<br />
<br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">SOUTH<br />
<i>Robot</i><br />
♠ Q 10 8<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> --<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> Q 7 5<br />
♣ Q 9 7<br />
</td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
</tbody></table></div>
<p>
I lead the jack of hearts. East plays low, letting his partner ruff with the ace. The defense can then score two clubs and two diamond ruffs. No, I can't make it by setting up a heart trick. I <i>can </i>make it by leading the nine of clubs out of my hand. But that's not a sensible line.</p><p>
Not that I need to make it. Down one is worth 96%. That's surprising. The auction and the first few tricks should be the same at every table. Not every declarer will float the six of spades. But that turns out
not to matter. If you start spades by leading the king, the defense can't exploit your error without breaking the club suit. So you're still down only one.</p><p>
The reason this is such a good result is that most players are bidding two hearts over two diamonds. Even given the opportunity to clarify that their support is only three cards, they
still elect to show that all-important six of hearts instead. West of course doubles two hearts. Some stood their ground; others ran to two spades. But now the opponents have enough information
to double that contract as well.</p><p></p>Phillip Martinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12686740850642509457noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6167918454701652348.post-51135951748158297182023-12-24T11:17:00.000-05:002023-12-24T11:17:10.359-05:00Free Weekly Instant Tournament - December 1 - Board 4
<p style="font-weight: bold; text-align: left;">
<a href="https://www.bridgebase.com/tools/handviewer.html?lin=st||pn|PSMartin,~~M167524r,~~M17775sq,~~M17967r3|md|2SAK952H42DA987CA3,SJT63HAJDCQ976542,S874HKQ976DKJ6CKJ,SQHT853DQT5432CT8|sv|b|rh||ah|Board%204|mb|P|mb|1H|an|Major%20suit%20opening%20--%205+%20!H;%2011-21%20HCP;%2012-22%20total%20points%20|mb|P|mb|1S|an|One%20over%20one%20--%204+%20!S;%206+%20total%20points|mb|P|mb|1N|an|2-3%20!C;%202-3%20!D;%205%20!H;%202-3%20!S;%2012-14%20HCP%20|mb|P|mb|2C!|an|New%20minor%20forcing%20--%204+%20!S;%2011+%20total%20points|mb|P|mb|2S|an|Secondary%20support%20--%202-3%20!C;%202-3%20!D;%205%20!H;%203%20!S;%2012-13%20HCP%20|mb|P|mb|4S|an|5+%20!S;%2012+%20HCP;%2013-17%20total%20points|mb|P|mb|P|mb|P|pc|C6|pc|CJ|pc|C8|pc|CA|pc|H4|pc|HA|pc|H6|pc|H8|pc|C2|pc|CK|pc|CT|pc|C3|pc|S4|pc|SQ|pc|SA|pc|S3|pc|SK|pc|S6|pc|S7|pc|D5|pc|H2|pc|HJ|pc|HK|pc|H5|pc|HQ|pc|H3|pc|D7|pc|ST|pc|SJ|pc|S8|pc|D3|pc|S2|pc|CQ|pc|H7|pc|D4|pc|S5|mc|10|
">
Board 4</a><br />Both sides vulnerable</p>
<table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="width: 300px;"><tbody><tr><td align="center" width="100%">♠ A K 9 5 2 <span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> 4 2 <span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> A 9 8 7 ♣ A 3 </td></tr></tbody></table>
<p>
Partner opens with one heart in second seat. I bid one spade, and partner rebids one notrump. I have a king more than I need to bid game. That extra king means it's possible I should just raise to three notrump and not bother checking for a spade fit.</p><p>At IMPs I would do that. The fact that my spades are headed by ace-king is a plus for notrump. If spades break poorly, then, thanks to my extra high cards, I may be able to take nine tricks without needing to set up spades.</p><p>But this is matchpoints. If spades takes more tricks than notrump, three notrump will score poorly. And that's likely if spades break normally. In essence, choosing three notrump is a safety play against a bad trump break. At matchpoints, it's better to go with the odds and forgo the safety play.</p><p>I bid two clubs, artificial and forcing. Partner bids two spades and I raise to four. LHO leads the six of clubs.</p>
<div align="center"><table><tbody>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">NORTH<br />
<i>Robot</i><br />
♠ 8 7 4<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> K Q 9 7 6<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> K J 6<br />
♣ K J<br />
<br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">SOUTH<br />
<i>Phillip</i><br />
♠ A K 9 5 2<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> 4 2<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> A 9 8 7<br />
♣ A 3<br />
<br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
</tbody></table></div>
<table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="width: 300px;">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td align="direction in globals.directions:left" width="25%"><b>West</b></td>
<td align="direction in globals.directions:left" width="25%"><b>North</b></td>
<td align="direction in globals.directions:left" width="25%"><b>East</b></td>
<td align="direction in globals.directions:left" width="25%"><b>South</b></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="25%"><i>Robot</i></td>
<td align="left" width="25%"><i>Robot</i></td>
<td align="left" width="25%"><i>Robot</i></td>
<td align="left" width="25%"><i>Phillip</i></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="25%">Pass</td>
<td align="left" width="25%">1 <span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span></td>
<td align="left" width="25%">Pass</td>
<td align="left" width="25%">1 ♠</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="25%">Pass</td>
<td align="left" width="25%">1 NT</td>
<td align="left" width="25%">Pass</td>
<td align="left" width="25%">2 ♣</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="25%">Pass</td>
<td align="left" width="25%">2 ♠</td>
<td align="left" width="25%">Pass</td>
<td align="left" width="25%">4 ♠</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="25%">(All pass)</td>
<td align="left" width="25%"> </td>
<td align="left" width="25%"> </td>
<td align="left" width="25%"> </td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<p>
If I can set up hearts for diamond pitches, I may be able to avoid the diamond finesse. But I need to preserve entries to dummy, so I play the club jack and, when East plays the eight, I overtake with the ace.
East would have covered if he had the queen, so West must hold it.
</p><p>
Should I start hearts right away, or should I cash a high trump to see if LHO drops an honor? If I lead a heart to dummy and it holds, I'd like to return to my hand with a trump to lead another heart.
If I've already cashed one high spade, I'm returning to my hand with the other one. Opening up the spade suit doesn't look like a good idea. It allows the opponents to draw dummy's last trump and lead a club
to tap me when they gain the lead. If I retain control of the trump suit, they can't do that. It's not clear I can manage a safety play in trumps anyway, so seeing an honor drop on my left may gain nothing. It looks better to start hearts right away.
</p><p>
I lead the four of hearts (better than the deuce, since if someone plays the three, his partner won't know that's his lowest heart). West hops with the ace and East follows with the eight. West shifts to the
deuce of clubs (revealing he started with at least five clubs)--king--ten--three. </p><p>
If spades break and no one has a stiff heart, I can make an overtrick: cash two spades, heart to dummy, ruff a heart, concede a trump, and claim.
</p><p>
I play a spade. East plays the queen, and West drops the three under my ace. I cash the king of spades. West plays the six, and East discards the five of diamonds. This is the current position, with West holding two high trumps:</p>
<div align="center"><table><tbody>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">NORTH<br />
<i>Robot</i><br />
♠ 8<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> K Q 9 7<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> K J 6<br />
♣ --<br />
<br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">SOUTH<br />
<i>Phillip</i><br />
♠ 9 5 2<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> 2<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> A 9 8 7<br />
♣ --<br />
</td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
</tbody></table></div>
<p>
West started with at least nine black cards, so he is probably short in hearts. If he started with two, I can play a heart to dummy and ruff a heart, setting up the suit. If West overruffs, draws dummy's last trump, then leads a club
to tap me, I have the rest. He does better not to overruff. If he pitches a club, I can lead a diamond to dummy and take <i>one</i> pitch. But West ruffs, draws dummy's trump, and taps me. I can't
get back to dummy to pitch my last diamond.
</p><p>
What happens if I don't bother setting up the hearts? If I play a heart to dummy's king, then cash the queen, pitching a diamond? If West follows, I can play another heart and pitch my last diamond. If he ruffs and draws dummy's trump, this will be the position:
</p>
<div align="center"><table><tbody>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">NORTH<br />
<i>Robot</i><br />
♠ --<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> 9 7<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> K J 6<br />
♣ --<br />
<br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">SOUTH<br />
<i>Phillip</i><br />
♠ 9 5<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> --<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> A 9 8<br />
♣ --<br />
</td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
</tbody></table></div>
<p>
If West taps me with a club, I have the rest, since, when I cash my last trump, East is squeezed in the red suits. To break up the squeeze, West must shift to a diamond. As long he has either the queen or the ten, this will give me a diamond
trick and, again, I have the rest.
</p><p>This looks like the right plan. All I need is three-three hearts or for West to have one diamond honor. I play a heart to dummy's king and cash the queen, pitching the seven of diamonds. West ruffs, cashes his last trump, and taps me. East shows out on the club lead, so the squeeze is no longer inferential. East is marked with all red cards. I ruff in my hand and claim.
</p>
<div align="center"><table><tbody>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">NORTH<br />
<i>Robot</i><br />
♠ 8 7 4<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> K Q 9 7 6<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> K J 6<br />
♣ K J<br />
<br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125">WEST<br />
<i>Robot</i><br />
♠ J 10 6 3<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> A J<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> --<br />
♣ Q 9 7 6 5 4 2<br />
<br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">EAST<br />
<i>Robot</i><br />
♠ Q<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> 10 8 5 3<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> Q 10 5 4 3 2<br />
♣ 10 8<br />
<br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">SOUTH<br />
<i>Phillip</i><br />
♠ A K 9 5 2<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> 4 2<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> A 9 8 7<br />
♣ A 3<br />
</td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
</tbody></table></div>
<p>Plus 620 is worth 82%. I was wrong that I needed West to have a diamond honor. Having a void worked as well. </p><p>Raising one notrump to three would have turned out better, as one would expect when spades break poorly. After the normal diamond lead, it's easy to make four, which is worth 96%. You can actually make five by endplaying East in hearts to force another diamond play. But if you ever duck a spade, you can't do that. You can't execute a throw-in for eleven tricks if you've already lost two. Since it's hard to imagine a sensible line that doesn't involve ducking a spade at some point, making five notrump is unlikely.</p><p>Another interesting feature of this deal: Against certain declarers in four spades, East has an opportunity to place North in his debt by executing an anti-cervisial coup. At the point I pitched the seven of diamonds, such declarers would pitch the eight. Now, when
South executes the squeeze, East must pitch his heart stopper--not a diamond--to prevent declarer from scoring the beer card at the end.
</p>Phillip Martinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12686740850642509457noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6167918454701652348.post-50222581980219135052023-12-17T15:18:00.000-05:002023-12-17T15:18:35.532-05:00Free Weekly Instant Tournament - December 1 - Board 3
<p style="font-weight: bold; text-align: left;">
<a href="https://www.bridgebase.com/tools/handviewer.html?lin=st||pn|PSMartin,~~M167524r,~~M17775sq,~~M17967r3|md|1SQ32H932DA6CAKQ84,SKT874HA6DQ82C952,SA96HJT8DT973CJT6,SJ5HKQ754DKJ54C73|sv|e|rh||ah|Board%203|mb|1N|an|notrump%20opener.%20Could%20have%205M.%20--%202-5%20!C;%202-5%20!D;%202-5%20!H;%202-5%20!S;%2015-|mb|P|mb|P|mb|2H!|an|Cappelletti%20-%20hearts%20and%20a%20minor%20--%204+%20!H;%203-%20!S;%2011+%20total%20points%20|mb|P|mb|P|mb|P|pc|CK|pc|C5|pc|C6|pc|C7|pc|CQ|pc|C9|pc|CJ|pc|C3|pc|CA|pc|C2|pc|CT|pc|H5|pc|D4|pc|D6|pc|DQ|pc|D7|pc|D2|pc|D3|pc|DK|pc|DA|pc|S2|pc|SK|pc|SA|pc|S5|pc|DT|pc|DJ|pc|H2|pc|D8|pc|SQ|pc|S4|pc|S6|pc|SJ|pc|C8|pc|H6|pc|HT|pc|HQ|pc|H7|pc|H3|pc|HA|pc|H8|pc|ST|pc|S9|pc|D5|pc|S3|pc|S8|pc|D9|pc|HK|pc|C4|pc|H4|pc|H9|pc|S7|pc|HJ|
">
Board 3</a><br />Opponents vulnerable</p>
<table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="width: 300px;"><tbody><tr><td align="center" width="100%">♠ Q 3 2 <span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> 9 3 2 <span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> A 6 ♣ A K Q 8 4 </td></tr></tbody></table>
<p>
I open with one notrump. LHO and partner pass, and RHO balances with two hearts, showing hearts and a minor.
</p><p>
It's tempting to bid three clubs. But as a general rule it is the responsibility of the player short in the opponent's suit to act. If partner has a doubleton heart, he should balance unless he is broke. If he has three hearts, we will probably do better on defense than on offense. So I pass. LHO and partner pass also, and RHO
buys it for two hearts.
</p><p>
I lead the king of clubs and see the following dummy:
</p>
<div align="center"><table><tbody>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">NORTH<br />
<i>Robot</i><br />
♠ K 10 8 7 4<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> A 6<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> Q 8 2<br />
♣ 9 5 2<br />
<br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125">WEST<br />
<i>Phillip</i><br />
♠ Q 3 2<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> 9 3 2<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> A 6<br />
♣ A K Q 8 4<br />
<br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
</tbody></table></div>
<table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="width: 300px;">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td align="direction in globals.directions:left" width="25%"><b>West</b></td>
<td align="direction in globals.directions:left" width="25%"><b>North</b></td>
<td align="direction in globals.directions:left" width="25%"><b>East</b></td>
<td align="direction in globals.directions:left" width="25%"><b>South</b></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="25%"><i>Phillip</i></td>
<td align="left" width="25%"><i>Robot</i></td>
<td align="left" width="25%"><i>Robot</i></td>
<td align="left" width="25%"><i>Robot</i></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="25%">1 NT</td>
<td align="left" width="25%">Pass</td>
<td align="left" width="25%">Pass</td>
<td align="left" width="25%">2 <span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="25%">(All pass)</td>
<td align="left" width="25%"> </td>
<td align="left" width="25%"> </td>
<td align="left" width="25%"> </td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<p>
North had a tough problem. If his partner has five hearts, he wants to pass. But if his partner has four hearts and a five-card minor, he wants to bid two notrump to play the minor. It's a complete guess.</p><p>I don't understand why
Astro, which solves such problems, isn't more popular. Playing Astro, partner bids two clubs to show hearts and a minor. With this hand, you bid two diamonds, denying three-card heart support. If partner has five hearts, he bids two
hearts and you pass. If he has four hearts and a longer minor, he passes two diamonds or bids three clubs. Why play guessing games with Cappelletti when there is a convention that let's you find out
what you need to know?
</p><p>
Declarer plays the five of clubs from dummy for whatever reason. Partner plays the six; declarer, the seven.
</p><p>
My proper continuation is the club queen, but I don't trust my robot partner to work out I have the ace. I don't want him ruffing this if clubs was declarer's second suit. So I lead the ace. Declarer continues his MUD
convention by playing dummy's nine. Partner plays the jack; declarer, the three.
</p><p>
I still don't know much about declarer's hand other than that he has at least nine cards in the red suits. But I see no reason not to persist in clubs. I play the club queen. Partner follows with the ten, and declarer ruffs
with the heart five.
</p><p>
If declarer is five-five in the red suits, it probably doesn't matter much what we do. Let's assume he's five-four one way or the other. If he is 4-5, he will probably play on spades, hoping to scramble some ruffs in
his hand.
</p><p>
Declarer plays the four of diamonds. Since he seems to be playing for control rather than scrambling, it's likely he has five hearts, so I'll assume he's 2-5-4-2.</p><p>
I duck, declarer wins with dummy's queen, and partner plays the seven. Declarer continues with the deuce of diamonds from dummy--three--king--ace.
</p><p>
Declarer would have ducked this trick without the diamond jack, and he wouldn't have started diamonds early with king-jack-ten
fourth. So his long diamond is a loser.
</p><p>
If partner has the spade ace, I can lead a spade to him and get a diamond ruff. That brings us up to five tricks. Declarer will probably have the king-queen of hearts if partner has the spade ace. So we will need to score our long diamond trick to beat it. Can we?</p><p>If declarer has the spade jack,
he has a guess when I lead a spade. But he should guess correctly, since I can hardly have the spade ace. Even though that gives me only 17 HCP, the prime values and good
five-card suit make that hand too good for a one-notrump opening. So declarer should play low on my spade shift and unblock the jack under partner's ace.
Then he can pitch his diamond loser on dummy's spade ten.</p><p>
What if partner has the jack of spades? Declarer ducks the spade shift. Partner wins with his jack and gives me a ruff. I play a spade to partner's ace for the setting trick.
Partner can now play his last diamond and I can ruff with the nine, uppercutting the dummy and possibly promoting a trick
for down two.
</p><p>
What is the danger in shifting to a spade? If declarer has ace-nine, a spade shift will give him a spade trick to pitch his diamond loser on. That's a very specific layout, however. A priori, partner is three times as likely to have ace-jack third of
spades as declarer is to have ace-nine doubleton, so switching to spades is the percentage play.
</p><p>
I lead the spade deuce. Declarer rises with the king. Partner wins with the ace, and declarer follows with the five. Declarer must be missing the jack. He decided rising with the king was his only chance. Partner shifts to the diamond ten, declarer covers with the jack and I ruff.</p><p>
That's five tricks, and the spade queen makes down one. How confident am I that partner has the spade jack? If he does, I can underlead my queen to put him on play for the uppercut, possibly yielding down two.</p><p>Wait. What am I thinking? I don't need <i>partner </i>to lead diamonds. Declarer has to lead them himself or concede a diamond trick at the end. So there is no reason to underlead. Queen and a spade, tapping declarer, works just as well.</p><p>
I cash the spade queen. Partner follows with the six; declarer, with the jack. Wow! So declarer did misguess! I'm insulted. But now dummy has a spade trick he can pitch his diamond on. Can we stop that? Maybe. If partner has the jack-ten of hearts,
this is the position:
</p>
<div align="center"><table><tbody>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">NORTH<br />
<i>Robot</i><br />
♠ 10 8 7<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> A 6<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> --<br />
♣ --<br />
<br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125">WEST<br />
<i>Phillip</i><br />
♠ 3<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> 9 3<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> --<br />
♣ 8 4<br />
<br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">EAST<br />
<i>Robot</i><br />
♠ 9<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> J 10 x<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> 9<br />
♣ --<br />
<br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">SOUTH<br />
<i>Robot</i><br />
♠ --<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> K Q x x<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> 5<br />
♣ --<br />
</td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
</tbody></table></div>
<p>If I play a heart or a spade, declarer has the rest. So I might as well play a club. What happens then? If declarer pitches from dummy and ruffs in his hand, partner can pitch his spade. preventing the diamond discard. So declarer must
ruff the club in dummy. Partner overruffs with the ten, and declarer overruffs with the queen. He can now lead a heart to the ace and take his discard. But then he can't get off dummy. My nine of hearts promotes for
the second undertrick.
</p><p>I lead a club. Declarer ruffs in dummy. Partner overruffs with the ten, and declarer overruffs with the queen. It looks as if this is going to work.</p><p>It does. Partner has the jack of hearts, so declarer finishes down two,
</p>
<div align="center"><table><tbody>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">NORTH<br />
<i>Robot</i><br />
♠ K 10 8 7 4<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> A 6<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> Q 8 2<br />
♣ 9 5 2<br />
<br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125">WEST<br />
<i>Phillip</i><br />
♠ Q 3 2<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> 9 3 2<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> A 6<br />
♣ A K Q 8 4<br />
<br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">EAST<br />
<i>Robot</i><br />
♠ A 9 6<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> J 10 8<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> 10 9 7 3<br />
♣ J 10 6<br />
<br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">SOUTH<br />
<i>Robot</i><br />
♠ J 5<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> K Q 7 5 4<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> K J 5 4<br />
♣ 7 3<br />
</td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
</tbody></table></div>
<p>
Plus 200 is worth 100%. </p><p>I was feeling pretty good about my defense until, stepping through the play with the double-dummy solver, I got to the point where I shifted to a low spade:</p>
<div align="center"><table><tbody>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">NORTH<br />
<i>Robot</i><br />
♠ K 10 8 7 4<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> A 6<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> 8<br />
♣ --<br />
<br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125">WEST<br />
<i>Phillip</i><br />
♠ Q 3 2<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> 9 3 2<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> --<br />
♣ 8 4<br />
<br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">EAST<br />
<i>Robot</i><br />
♠ A 9 6<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> J 10 8<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> 10 9<br />
♣ --<br />
<br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">SOUTH<br />
<i>Robot</i><br />
♠ J 5<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> K Q 7 4<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> J 5<br />
♣ --<br />
</td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
</tbody></table></div>
<p>
The solver said that leading the spade queen beats the
contract by force.
</p><p>
Really? How does that work? I see. If I lead the queen, declarer covers and partner wins with the ace. Declarer can't afford to play the jack. If he does, he has only one spade winner and can't get a diamond pitch. So he must
play low, blocking the suit. Partner gives me a ruff for our fifth trick. Now a ruff-sluff in clubs works the same magic it did in my line, yielding the setting trick.
</p><p>
Annoying. Even though I wound up beating it two on my defense, I was just lucky. Declarer should have guessed the spades and made it. The spade queen is a pretty play. It would be nice to be able to brag that I had found it.
<br /><br />Admittedly, the spade queen isn't 100%. If partner doesn't have jack-ten of trumps, leading low and hoping declarer misguesses is your only shot. But I think the chance that a decent declarer will misguess is pretty slim, so shifting to the spade queen looks right.<br /><br />A word about using double-dummy solvers. Initially, I was wary of them. I was afraid if I used them, my brain would atrophy. I still believe that's a danger if you use them as a substitute for thinking. But when used as I did here--to see if you missed something on a deal you have already played--they can be a useful tool.</p><p>Without a double-dummy solver, I never would have realized that shifting to the spade queen beats the contract by force. Having discovered that, perhaps the next time I encounter a similar position I'll do the right thing.</p>Phillip Martinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12686740850642509457noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6167918454701652348.post-25386344744449090272023-12-10T12:28:00.002-05:002023-12-10T12:28:35.914-05:00Free Weekly Instant Tournament - December 1 - Board 2
<p style="font-weight: bold; text-align: left;">
<a href="https://www.bridgebase.com/tools/handviewer.html?lin=st||pn|PSMartin,~~M167524r,~~M17775sq,~~M17967r3|md|4SQ43H65DAQ76CAQ75,S2HAKJ743DKJT3C84,SAKT976H2D95CJT32,SJ85HQT98D842CK96|sv|n|rh||ah|Board%202|mb|P|mb|1D|an|Minor%20suit%20opening%20--%203+%20!D;%2011-21%20HCP;%2012-22%20total%20points|mb|1H|an|One-level%20overcall%20--%205+%20!H;%208-17%20HCP;%209-19%20total%20points%20|mb|1S|an|Free%20bid%20--%205+%20!S;%206+%20total%20points;%20forcing%20|mb|2H|an|3+%20!H;%206-10%20total%20points%20|mb|D!|an|Support%20double%20-%203%20S%20--%204+%20!D;%203%20!S;%2011-21%20HCP;%2012-22%20total%20points|mb|P|mb|4S|an|5+%20!S;%2012+%20HCP;%2013%20total%20points%20|mb|P|mb|P|mb|P|pc|HT|pc|H5|pc|HK|pc|H2|pc|HA|pc|S6|pc|H8|pc|H6|pc|SA|pc|S8|pc|S3|pc|S2|pc|CJ|pc|CK|pc|CA|pc|C4|pc|SQ|pc|H7|pc|S7|pc|S5|pc|S4|pc|H3|pc|SK|pc|SJ|pc|C2|pc|C6|pc|CQ|pc|C8|pc|C5|pc|D3|pc|CT|pc|C9|pc|D5|pc|D2|pc|DQ|pc|DK|pc|H4|pc|S9|pc|H9|pc|D6|mc|11|
">
Board 2</a><br />Our side vulnerable</p>
<table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="width: 300px;"><tbody><tr><td align="center" width="100%">♠ Q 4 3 <span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> 6 5 <span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> A Q 7 6 ♣ A Q 7 5 </td></tr></tbody></table>
<p>
RHO passes, and I bid one diamond. LHO overcalls with one heart, partner bids one spade, and RHO raises to two hearts. I double, showing three-card spade support, and partner goes on to four spades. RHO leads the heart ten.
</p>
<div align="center"><table><tbody>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">NORTH<br />
<i>Phillip</i><br />
♠ Q 4 3<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> 6 5<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> A Q 7 6<br />
♣ A Q 7 5<br />
<br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">SOUTH<br />
<i>Robot</i><br />
♠ A K 10 9 7 6<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> 2<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> 9 5<br />
♣ J 10 3 2<br />
<br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
</tbody></table></div>
<table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="width: 300px;">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td align="direction in globals.directions:left" width="25%"><b>West</b></td>
<td align="direction in globals.directions:left" width="25%"><b>North</b></td>
<td align="direction in globals.directions:left" width="25%"><b>East</b></td>
<td align="direction in globals.directions:left" width="25%"><b>South</b></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="25%"><i>Robot</i></td>
<td align="left" width="25%"><i>Phillip</i></td>
<td align="left" width="25%"><i>Robot</i></td>
<td align="left" width="25%"><i>Robot</i></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="25%">Pass</td>
<td align="left" width="25%">1 <span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span></td>
<td align="left" width="25%">1 <span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span></td>
<td align="left" width="25%">1 ♠</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="25%">2 <span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span></td>
<td align="left" width="25%">Double</td>
<td align="left" width="25%">Pass</td>
<td align="left" width="25%">4 ♠</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="25%">(All pass)</td>
<td align="left" width="25%"> </td>
<td align="left" width="25%"> </td>
<td align="left" width="25%"> </td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<p>I have one heart loser and a potential loser in each minor. I should be making this, so it's a question of overtricks.</p><p>East wins trick one with the heart king. He then lays down the heart ace. I ruff, and West follows with the eight. It appears West began with queen-ten-nine-eight; West, with ace-king-jack sixth.
</p><p>
What is the best play in the club suit? I suspect some declarers will lead low, guarding against a stiff king onside. That's an error. While this does pick up a stiff king onside, it loses to a stiff eight or
nine offside, which is twice as likely. Leading the jack is correct.
</p><p>
If I lead the jack and West plays low, how confident will I be
that the club king is offside? Fairly confident, I think. The robots cover any time it might gain and can't cost double dummy. From West's point of view I might have jack-empty third, so he must cover. Of
course, I wouldn't lead the jack with jack-empty third, but the robots don't know that.
</p><p>
If West plays low, then, I can rise with the ace and draw trumps. If trumps are two-two, I can play a club, endplaying East if he began with king doubleton. Should I try endplaying East if he follows only to <i>one </i>trump? This works if East is 1-6-4-2. But I will suffer a club ruff if he began with 1-6-3-3. No need to worry about that now. I'll decide when the time comes.
</p><p>
First I need to make sure trumps aren't four-zero. I cash the ace of spades--eight--three--deuce. </p><p>No four-zero trump break. I lead the jack of clubs, and West covers with the king. I take the ace, and East follows with the four. The diamond king
is surely offside. West would have bid two hearts, not one, with ace-king-jack sixth of hearts and nothing on the side. So my only problem now is how to avoid a club loser if clubs are four-one.</p><p>Is there anything
I can do? Suppose East is 2-6-4-1. I can draw one more round of trumps, then test clubs. If they don't break, I can lead the diamond nine and pass it, hoping East has king-jack-ten fourth. He will then
be endplayed and will have to allow me to dispose of my club loser.
</p><p>
I cash the spade queen. East pitches the heart seven. East doesn't rate to have two black singletons, so clubs are probably splitting. Too bad. I hate it when you are in a normal contract and suits break. Its hard to get a good board when careless play suffices.</p><p>I draw the last trump, run clubs,
and take a losing diamond finesse. Making five. This should be flat.</p>
<div align="center"><table><tbody>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">NORTH<br />
<i>Phillip</i><br />
♠ Q 4 3<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> 6 5<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> A Q 7 6<br />
♣ A Q 7 5<br />
<br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125">WEST<br />
<i>Robot</i><br />
♠ J 8 5<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> Q 10 9 8<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> 8 4 2<br />
♣ K 9 6<br />
<br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">EAST<br />
<i>Robot</i><br />
♠ 2<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> A K J 7 4 3<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> K J 10 3<br />
♣ 8 4<br />
<br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">SOUTH<br />
<i>Robot</i><br />
♠ A K 10 9 7 6<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> 2<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> 9 5<br />
♣ J 10 3 2<br />
<br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
</tbody></table></div>
<p>It's not flat. Plus 650 is worth 79%!</p><p>The reason this is a good result is that quite a few players bid two spades over two hearts, which is supposed to show four-card support. </p><p>Why does this matter? because the opponents have a good save in five hearts. Apparently East is disinclined to save after a support double for fear we are in an eight-card fit and trumps are breaking four-one. When he expects dummy to have four spades, he is happy to save. </p><p>This suggests an interesting tactic. Could it sometimes be right to psyche a support double--to double with <i>four </i>trumps (when you know partner has five), hoping to entice the opponents into under-competing? I can hardly wait to try this out. If one of you beats me to it, be sure to let me know how it works out. </p><p>
I suspect the two-spade bidders didn't even realize that support doubles were on in this auction. Since partner's one spade bid promises five, they reasoned, why do I need a support double?
</p><p>
While there is some logic to this argument, I prefer support doubles here for several reasons:</p><p>(1) I dislike making exceptions. Double is support in most auctions after a one-heart or one-spade response.
If you don't play them here, it would be easy to forget.</p><p>(2) Even when partner has five spades, it can helpful for him to know whether you have three-card or four-card support.
If the opponents bid on, it might help him decide whether to compete. And it can help him in a constructive auction as well.
The difference between three- and four-card support can be important if partner is contemplating a slam.
</p><p>(3) I know I'm in the minority here, but I don't think responder's one spade bid promises five. There are hands with only four spades where a negative double can prove awkward. Such hands may be rare after a one diamond opening, since you can make a negative double and correct clubs to diamonds. But
they are fairly common after a one club opening. If you double without diamond support after one club--one heart, you need to be prepared to correct diamonds to clubs a level higher.
</p><p>
Originally, negative doubles were conceived of as take-out doubles. Somewhere along the way, players started treating them as replacements for bidding the unbid major. So one of a minor--one heart--double, we were told, showed four spades and said nothing about the unbid minor.</p><p>I never bought into that idea. One diamond--pass--one spade can be a four-card suit after all. Why should the one heart overcall change anything? To my mind, negative doubles show support for both unbid suits or the ability to handle the auction. If that means you must sometimes bid one spade over a one-heart overcall with only four spades, so be it. I don't see what the problem is.</p>Phillip Martinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12686740850642509457noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6167918454701652348.post-49478277060038643212023-12-04T12:50:00.004-05:002023-12-05T10:58:16.915-05:00Free Weekly Instant Tournament - December 1 - Board 1
<p>
Sorry for the hiatus. I've found the schedule I set for myself too tight. Covering one board from each week's Weekly Free Instant Tournament means I have from Friday to Sunday to play in the event
and write up a board. If
I have a busy weekend, it's difficult to do that.</p><p>So I've decided to go back to what I was doing previously: writing up all eight boards from a given Weekly Free Instant Tournament, one at a time. This gives me a week to write up each board. </p><p>If you want to compare results, be sure to play all the boards in this week's tournament. Here is board one. I'll post board two on Sunday.</p>
<p style="font-weight: bold; text-align: left;">
<a href="https://www.bridgebase.com/tools/handviewer.html?lin=st||pn|PSMartin,~~M167524r,~~M17775sq,~~M17967r3|md|3S984HAQ32DK643CK9,SAQT52HJDQJ875CT4,SKJ76HK985D9CA652,S3HT764DAT2CQJ873|sv|o|rh||ah|Board%201|mb|P|mb|P|mb|1D|an|Minor%20suit%20opening%20--%203+%20!D;%2011-21%20HCP;%2012-22%20total%20points|mb|1S|an|One-level%20overcall%20--%205+%20!S;%208-17%20HCP;%209-19%20total%20points%20|mb|D|an|Negative%20double%20--%204+%20!H;%205-11%20HCP;%206-12%20total%20points%20|mb|2C|an|5+%20!C;%202-%20!S;%2011-%20HCP;%209-12%20total%20points%20|mb|2H|an|3+%20!D;%204%20!H;%2013-15%20total%20points|mb|2S|an|3-%20!C;%206+%20!S;%2011-15%20total%20points%20|mb|D|an|4+%20!H;%2010-11%20HCP;%20biddable%20!S;%2012-%20total%20points%20|mb|P|mb|P|mb|P|pc|D9|pc|D2|pc|DK|pc|D5|pc|D6|pc|D7|pc|S6|pc|DT|pc|H5|pc|H4|pc|HA|pc|HJ|pc|D3|pc|DQ|pc|S7|pc|DA|pc|CA|pc|C3|pc|C9|pc|C4|pc|C6|pc|CQ|pc|CK|pc|CT|pc|D4|pc|DJ|pc|SJ|pc|H6|pc|H9|pc|H7|pc|HQ|pc|S2|pc|SA|pc|SK|pc|S3|pc|S4|pc|SQ|pc|H8|pc|CJ|pc|S8|pc|ST|pc|C5|pc|C7|pc|S9|pc|S5|pc|C2|pc|C8|pc|H2|pc|D8|pc|HK|pc|HT|pc|H3|https://www.bridgebase.com/tools/handviewer.html?lin=st||pn|PSMartin,~~M167524r,~~M17775sq,~~M17967r3|md|3S984HAQ32DK643CK9,SAQT52HJDQJ875CT4,SKJ76HK985D9CA652,S3HT764DAT2CQJ873|sv|o|rh||ah|Board%201|mb|P|mb|P|mb|1D|an|Minor%20suit%20opening%20--%203+%20!D;%2011-21%20HCP;%2012-22%20total%20points|mb|1S|an|One-level%20overcall%20--%205+%20!S;%208-17%20HCP;%209-19%20total%20points%20|mb|D|an|Negative%20double%20--%204+%20!H;%205-11%20HCP;%206-12%20total%20points%20|mb|2C|an|5+%20!C;%202-%20!S;%2011-%20HCP;%209-12%20total%20points%20|mb|2H|an|3+%20!D;%204%20!H;%2013-15%20total%20points|mb|2S|an|3-%20!C;%206+%20!S;%2011-15%20total%20points%20|mb|D|an|4+%20!H;%2010-11%20HCP;%20biddable%20!S;%2012-%20total%20points%20|mb|P|mb|P|mb|P|pc|D9|pc|D2|pc|DK|pc|D5|pc|D6|pc|D7|pc|S6|pc|DT|pc|H5|pc|H4|pc|HA|pc|HJ|pc|D3|pc|DQ|pc|S7|pc|DA|pc|CA|pc|C3|pc|C9|pc|C4|pc|C6|pc|CQ|pc|CK|pc|CT|pc|D4|pc|DJ|pc|SJ|pc|H6|pc|H9|pc|H7|pc|HQ|pc|S2|pc|SA|pc|SK|pc|S3|pc|S4|pc|SQ|pc|H8|pc|CJ|pc|S8|pc|ST|pc|C5|pc|C7|pc|S9|pc|S5|pc|C2|pc|C8|pc|H2|pc|D8|pc|HK|pc|HT|pc|H3|
">
Board 1</a><br />Neither vulnerable</p>
<table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="width: 300px;"><tbody><tr><td align="center" width="100%">♠ 9 8 4 <span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> A Q 3 2 <span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> K 6 4 3 ♣ K 9 </td></tr></tbody></table>
<p>
Two passes to me. I open with one diamond. LHO bids one spades, partner makes a negative double, and RHO bids two clubs.</p><p>I bid two hearts, promising four-card support. LHO bids two spades, and partner doubles.</p><p>I'm allowed to pull, since we are known to have an eight-card heart fit. But, with three spades, I know partner's spade tricks are getting ruffed, This hand will not play well for us, so it looks right to defend. </p><p>Admittedly, I
don't have a particularly good hand for defense either. I have only two tricks on defense (one and two halves). So partner, as a passed hand, will need to contribute four. Still, I don't expect to go plus on offense. Partner thinks we can beat this, so why shouldn't I trust him?</p><p>I pass.
Partner leads the nine of diamonds, and RHO tables the dummy.
</p>
<div align="center"><table><tbody>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">NORTH<br />
<i>Robot</i><br />
♠ 3<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> 10 7 6 4<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> A 10 2<br />
♣ Q J 8 7 3<br />
<br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">EAST<br />
<i>Phillip</i><br />
♠ 9 8 4<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> A Q 3 2<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> K 6 4 3<br />
♣ K 9<br />
<br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
</tbody></table></div>
<table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="width: 300px;">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td align="direction in globals.directions:left" width="25%"><b>West</b></td>
<td align="direction in globals.directions:left" width="25%"><b>North</b></td>
<td align="direction in globals.directions:left" width="25%"><b>East</b></td>
<td align="direction in globals.directions:left" width="25%"><b>South</b></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="25%"><i>Robot</i></td>
<td align="left" width="25%"><i>Robot</i></td>
<td align="left" width="25%"><i>Phillip</i></td>
<td align="left" width="25%"><i>Robot</i></td>
</tr><tr>
<td align="left" width="25%">Pass</td>
<td align="left" width="25%">Pass</td>
<td align="left" width="25%">1 <span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span></td>
<td align="left" width="25%">1 ♠</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="25%">Double</td>
<td align="left" width="25%">2 ♣</td>
<td align="left" width="25%">2 <span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span></td>
<td align="left" width="25%">2 ♠</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="25%">Double</td>
<td align="left" width="25%">(All pass)</td>
<td align="left" width="25%"> </td>
<td align="left" width="25%"> </td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<p>Declarer plays low from dummy. I win with the king and declarer follows with the five.</p><p>Partner will normally have four spades for this double. But it appears he has doubled with only three. Declarer surely has six spades. He has no reason to rebid a five-card suit freely in this auction.</p><p>How do hearts split? Partner should have only four. With five hearts and enough high cards to
be doubling this, he would have bid two hearts over one spade.</p><p>What about diamonds? Is the nine a singleton or a doubleton? Clearly a doubleton. With five diamonds, declarer has no reason to finesse. He would have hopped with the ace. With four diamonds, he might finesse to cut our communications. So I know declarer's shape. He must be 6-1-4-2.</p><p>If I return a diamond, partner can put me in with the heart ace when he wins a trump trick and I can give him a diamond ruff.
That brings us up to four tricks.
If partner has the club ace, we have two more for down one. In fact, he doesn't need the club ace, does he? One more trump trick suffices, since declarer has no dummy entry with which to take a club finesse.
</p><p>
I return the six of diamonds (suit preference for hearts, even though robots don't play suit preference). Declarer follows with the seven and partner unexpectedly ruffs with the spade six. Declarer plays the ten from dummy.
</p><p>
So declarer is 6-1-5-1? Why didn't he go up with the diamond ace at trick one?
</p><p>
Partner leads the five of hearts to my ace, and declarer drops the jack. We need three more tricks. Where can we find them? If partner has the club ace and the spade king, we can manage. I can lead another
diamond for partner to ruff. Then he can underlead his club ace to my king and I can play another diamond for a trump promotion.
</p><p>
I play the diamond three (suit preference again, suggesting a club underlead). Partner ruffs with the spade seven and leads the club ace. Oh well, unless partner's last spade is the ace, we aren't beating this.
</p><p>
Partner continues a club to to my king and, to my surprise, declarer follows. Really? Declarer is 5-1-5-2? He rebid a five-card spade suit?
</p><p>
I play another diamond. Partner ruffs with the spade jack. His last spade, the king, is now singleton, so declarer takes the rest. Down two.
</p>
<div align="center"><table><tbody>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">NORTH<br />
<i>Robot</i><br />
♠ 3<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> 10 7 6 4<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> A 10 2<br />
♣ Q J 8 7 3<br />
<br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125">WEST<br />
<i>Robot</i><br />
♠ K J 7 6<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> K 9 8 5<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> 9<br />
♣ A 6 5 2<br />
<br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">EAST<br />
<i>Phillip</i><br />
♠ 9 8 4<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> A Q 3 2<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> K 6 4 3<br />
♣ K 9<br />
<br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">SOUTH<br />
<i>Robot</i><br />
♠ A Q 10 5 2<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> J<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> Q J 8 7 5<br />
♣ 10 4<br />
</td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
</tbody></table></div>
<p>
Plus 300 is worth 71%.</p><p>Can we do better? It never crossed my mind not to give partner his second diamond ruff when I was in with the heart ace. But, since partner has two natural trump tricks, giving him ruffs doesn't accomplish anything. What happens if I continue hearts?</p><p>Say declarer ruffs and plays ace and queen of spades. Partner wins and taps him again. This will be the position:
</p>
<div align="center"><table><tbody>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">NORTH<br />
<i>Robot</i><br />
♠ --<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> 10<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> A<br />
♣ Q J 8 7<br />
<br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125">WEST<br />
<i>Robot</i><br />
♠ J<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> K<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> --<br />
♣ A 6 5 2<br />
<br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">EAST<br />
<i>Phillip</i><br />
♠ 9<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> Q<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> 4 3<br />
♣ K 9<br />
<br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">SOUTH<br />
<i>Robot</i><br />
♠ 10<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> --<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> Q J 8<br />
♣ 10 4<br />
<br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
</tbody></table></div>
<p>
If declarer plays another trump, partner has a heart to cash. If he doesn't, we score our trump tricks separately. Either way he is down three.
</p><p>
Should I have figured that out? While it's true partner should have four spades for his double, he might have decided to make an aggressive double because of his stiff diamond. Frankly, that seems more likely than that declarer decided to rebid a five-card spade suit looking at a good hand for defense (a diamond stack and probably a four-one heart break).</p><p>Further, partner might have chosen a heart lead at trick one with this hand. With king-jack fourth of spades, going for the tap makes more sense to me than going after diamond ruffs. An initial heart lead would make the defense easy.</p><p>
Still, I might have worked it out. I did wonder why declarer didn't rise with the diamond ace at trick one, but I didn't take the time to answer that question.
Taking the diamond finesse with 6-1-5-1 makes no sense at all.
With 5-1-5-2, ducking is more attractive. The diamond ruffs don't hurt declarer, since he is danger of being tapped out anyway. So he might as well duck and save the tempo.
<br /><br />So I should have realized declarer had only five spades. Even so, the right defense isn't clear. Note if declarer has the spade jack instead of partner in the above position, he gets out for down one by cashing it and pitching dummy's diamond ace. Still, I should have at least considered a heart continuation. Partner seemed to want diamond ruffs, so I complied without thinking too hard. It was a lazy defense.</p>Phillip Martinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12686740850642509457noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6167918454701652348.post-44083117674849760242023-11-12T17:20:00.000-05:002023-11-12T17:20:50.521-05:00Free Weekly Instant Tournament - November 10 - Board 6
<p style="font-weight: bold; text-align: left;">
<a href="https://www.bridgebase.com/tools/handviewer.html?lin=st||pn|PSMartin,~~M82836af,~~M17764y7,~~M17775g0|md|4SKQJHKQ532DQ76CKJ,SAT75H4DKT954C743,S842HT9DJ3CQT9862,S963HAJ876DA82CA5|sv|e|rh||ah|Board%206|mb|1H|an|Major%20suit%20opening%20--%205+%20!H;%2011-21%20HCP;%2012-22%20total%20points%20|mb|1N|an|One%20notrump%20overcall%20--%202-5%20!C;%202-5%20!D;%202-5%20!H;%202-5%20!S;%2015+%20HCP;%2018-%20|mb|P|mb|2N!|an|Minor%20transfer%20--%206+%20!C%20|mb|P|mb|3C|an|Transfer%20completed%20--%202-5%20!C;%202-5%20!D;%202-5%20!H;%202-5%20!S;%2015+%20HCP;%2018-%20to|mb|3D|an|4+%20!D;%202-%20!H;%208-%20HCP;%2010+%20total%20points%20|mb|P|mb|P|mb|P|pc|S2|pc|S3|pc|SQ|pc|SA|pc|H4|pc|H9|pc|HA|pc|H2|pc|S6|pc|SJ|pc|S5|pc|S8|pc|CK|pc|C3|pc|C6|pc|CA|pc|S9|pc|SK|pc|ST|pc|S4|pc|CJ|pc|C4|pc|CQ|pc|C5|pc|HT|pc|H6|pc|H3|pc|D4|pc|D5|pc|D3|pc|DA|pc|D6|pc|D2|pc|D7|pc|DK|pc|DJ|pc|C7|pc|C2|pc|D8|pc|DQ|pc|HK|pc|D9|pc|C9|pc|HJ|pc|S7|pc|CT|pc|H7|pc|H5|pc|DT|pc|C8|pc|H8|pc|HQ|
">
Board 6</a><br />Opponents vulnerable</p>
<table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="width: 300px;"><tbody><tr><td align="center" width="100%">♠ K Q J <span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> K Q 5 3 2 <span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> Q 7 6 ♣ K J </td></tr></tbody></table>
<p>
RHO opens with one heart. I could overcall with one notrump. But since the opponents are vulnerable and we aren't, it's tempting to pass, hoping to collect a penalty.</p><p>There are two problems with the approach.
The first is that my defensive prospects aren't as good as my point count suggests. While I have five hearts, my spots are bad, so my heart stack may not be all that troublesome for declarer. And I have no aces; my values are all soft.</p><p>A more serious problem, however, is that if I pass, I may have no good follow-up. If the auction happens to proceed one spade--pass--one notrump, I'm in great shape. I can double, and partner will have a pretty good picture of my hand.</p><p>Other auctions, however, are more awkward. If opener rebids two hearts, my spots aren't good enough to double, so I will have to pass. If he rebids two of a minor over a one spade or one notrump response,
I will have to pass then as well. </p><p>So passing one heart will likely lead to defending something undoubled. Since this could easily be our hand for a notrump game, I'm not willing to do that. It looks better to overcall one notrump. That will not only make it easier to bid game if we have one, it will also keep the auction uncomplicated--always a good idea when playing with a robot.</p><p>
I bid one notrump, LHO passes, and partner bids two notrump, a transfer to clubs. RHO passes, and I dutifully bid three clubs. LHO now comes to life with three diamonds. What's that all about? With long diamonds and a hand not
good enough to double, why not bid two diamonds on the previous round? I can't imagine a hand where I would take this auction.</p><p>I have nothing further to say. I pass, and partner leads the deuce of spades.
</p>
<div align="center"><table><tbody>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">NORTH<br />
<i>Robot</i><br />
♠ 9 6 3<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> A J 8 7 6<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> A 8 2<br />
♣ A 5<br />
<br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">EAST<br />
<i>Phillip</i><br />
♠ K Q J<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> K Q 5 3 2<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> Q 7 6<br />
♣ K J<br />
<br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
</tbody></table></div>
<table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="width: 300px;">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td align="direction in globals.directions:left" width="25%"><b>West</b></td>
<td align="direction in globals.directions:left" width="25%"><b>North</b></td>
<td align="direction in globals.directions:left" width="25%"><b>East</b></td>
<td align="direction in globals.directions:left" width="25%"><b>South</b></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="25%"><i>Robot</i></td>
<td align="left" width="25%"><i>Robot</i></td>
<td align="left" width="25%"><i>Phillip</i></td>
<td align="left" width="25%"><i>Robot</i></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="25%"> </td>
<td align="left" width="25%">1 <span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span></td>
<td align="left" width="25%">1 NT</td>
<td align="left" width="25%">Pass</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="25%">2 NT</td>
<td align="left" width="25%">Pass</td>
<td align="left" width="25%">3 ♣</td>
<td align="left" width="25%">3 <span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="25%">(All pass)</td>
<td align="left" width="25%"> </td>
<td align="left" width="25%"> </td>
<td align="left" width="25%"> </td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<p>
Declarer apparently has ace third or fourth of spades and probably a stiff heart, since partner would have led a heart if he held the singleton. He must have six diamonds to trot out the suit unilaterally at the three-level. Perhaps he has something like
</p><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="width: 300px;"><tbody><tr><td align="center" width="100%">♠ A x x <span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> x <span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> K J 10 x x x ♣ x x x </td></tr></tbody></table><p>
This would give some semblance of sense to his auction. With six good diamonds, he is happy to defend one notrump, but less happy to defend three clubs. He might have chosen to double one notrump with this hand, but
perhaps not.
</p><p>The next step after forming a provisional construction is to predict how the play will go. Then, if your prediction is wrong, you will know to revise your construction. If my construction on this deal is correct, declarer will probably win and play ace and a club, intending to ruff a club with the diamond ace and hook me out of the diamond queen.</p><p>My best chance for another trick is to find partner with a stiff
jack of diamonds. Then declarer can't afford to ruff with the diamond ace. Even a stiff ten will force declarer to guess the diamond suit. Either the jack or ten in partner's hand makes South's decision not to double
one notrump more believable. So this is a likely layout.
</p><p>
I have a slight problem in that I have no safe exits. On my construction, I have a safe club exit, but I don't want to commit to my construction unless I have to. While it's unlikely declarer has the club queen, I'd just as soon he didn't get any ideas about endplaying me.
That means I don't want him to know I have king-queen-jack tight of spades.
I'll play the spade queen at trick one, making it appear I have a spade exit. Partner will think declarer has the jack, but he doesn't have much to do on this deal, so I doubt the lie will
do any harm.
</p><p>
I play the queen, and declarer wins with the spade ace. He then, surprisingly, plays the four of hearts to dummy's ace, partner contributing the nine, and leads a spade from dummy.
</p><p>
What's going on? Why isn't declarer trying to ruff a club in dummy? The most likely explanation is he doesn't have one to ruff. Perhaps he's 4-1-6-2 and intends to ruff a spade if they don't break.</p><p>But why go to the trouble to play spades from dummy? It's inconvenient to release the heart ace. He must have some reason. </p><p>Maybe he wants me to win the second spade. Perhaps he's afraid if he leads a spade from his hand, partner will hop with the jack and shift to a club. He thinks if I win the trick, a club shift will be harder to find. Yes, that makes sense. He is hoping spades are three-three and trumps two-two. Then, if we don't get clubs going fast enough, he can pitch dummy's club on the long spade and ruff a club in dummy.</p><p>Since trumps aren't two-two, he can't do that. Say I cash both spades and play a trump. He can either draw all the trumps and lose a club or cash two trumps and pitch a club as I ruff in. He must lose either a club or a trump. Making four.</p><p>What happens if I go after the club trick? I win this spade, play a club, win the next spade and cash the club. Now he has to guess the trumps. If he misguesses, he makes only three. Since I have a notrump overcall without the diamond queen, he might well misguess.</p><p>I'm sure I'm wrong about why declarer is determined to play spades from dummy. The robots don't play at that level. But this looks like the right defense anyway. I win with the spade jack--five--eight. Now the club king--three--six--ace.</p><p>Declarer plays another spade--king--ten--four. I lead the club jack and partner overtakes with the queen to lead the ten of hearts. Declarer plays low from dummy and ruffs it.</p><p>Now a diamond to the ace and a diamond back to the king. Partner, surprisingly, follows to the second diamond with the jack. So declarer is 4-1-5-3?</p><p>He ruffs a club in dummy. I overruff with the queen and declarer takes the rest. Making three. </p>
<div align="center"><table><tbody>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">NORTH<br />
<i>Robot</i><br />
♠ 9 6 3<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> A J 8 7 6<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> A 8 2<br />
♣ A 5<br />
<br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125">WEST<br />
<i>Robot</i><br />
♠ 8 4 2<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> 10 9<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> J 3<br />
♣ Q 10 9 8 6 2<br />
<br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">EAST<br />
<i>Phillip</i><br />
♠ K Q J<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> K Q 5 3 2<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> Q 7 6<br />
♣ K J<br />
<br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">SOUTH<br />
<i>Robot</i><br />
♠ A 10 7 5<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> 4<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> K 10 9 5 4<br />
♣ 7 4 3<br />
</td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
</tbody></table></div>
<p>
This is a surprising 100%. The field is passing one heart. The auction then goes one spade--pass--one notrump, and they pass again. I don't get it. Isn't this exactly what you are hoping for if you pass one heart?
You get the continuation you were dreaming of and then don't double? One notrump makes two, so my minus 110 beat the minus 120s. If you double, partner will pull to two clubs. Who knows what happens after that, but you will
surely do better than minus 120.
</p><p>
There seems to be a reluctance among some players to overcall one notrump. The deal last week was, I thought, a routine one-notrump overcall and almost no one bid it. I even got some weird objections
in the comments in the Bridge People group on Facebook. One person, if I understood him correctly, suggested I wouldn't have overcalled one notrump in a real game.
</p><p>
I find the one notrump overcall to be a very useful call. If partner has a decent hand, it makes your auction run smoothly. It can make it easy to bid a game that would be difficult to reach otherwise.
Yes, sometimes LHO will double and you will have no place to run. But, so what? You can get in trouble overcalling in a suit as well.
You can't bid assuming the worst will happen. If you have a bid that describes your hand perfectly, it's usually a good idea to make it.</p>Phillip Martinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12686740850642509457noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6167918454701652348.post-19298540739070115192023-11-05T13:01:00.000-05:002023-11-05T13:01:28.696-05:00Free Weekly Instant Tournament - November 3 - Board 5
<p style="font-weight: bold; text-align: left;">
<a href="https://www.bridgebase.com/tools/handviewer.html?lin=st||pn|PSMartin,~~M10623x2,~~M109358l,~~M109548u|md|3SK6HA2DAQT53CQJ42,S7HQJ8765DKJ7CKT8,SJ432HK943D642C96,SAQT985HTD98CA753|sv|n|rh||ah|Board%205|mb|P|mb|1S|an|Major%20suit%20opening%20--%205+%20!S;%2011-21%20HCP;%2012-22%20total%20points%20|mb|1N|an|One%20notrump%20overcall%20--%202-5%20!C;%202-5%20!D;%202-5%20!H;%202-5%20!S;%2015+%20HCP;%2018-%20|mb|D|an|Penalty%20double%20--%209+%20HCP%20|mb|P|mb|P|mb|2C|an|4-5%20!C;%202-5%20!D;%202-5%20!H;%202-5%20!S;%2015+%20HCP;%2018-%20total%20points;%20stop%20in%20!S|mb|D|an|1-%20!S;%2010+%20HCP;%20biddable%20!C%20|mb|2H|an|4+%20!H;%208-%20total%20points%20|mb|2S|an|6+%20!S;%2011+%20HCP;%2012-14%20total%20points%20|mb|P|mb|P|mb|P|pc|C2|pc|C8|pc|C9|pc|CA|pc|HT|pc|HA|pc|H5|pc|H4|pc|CQ|pc|CK|pc|C6|pc|C3|pc|S7|pc|S2|pc|S5|pc|SK|pc|CJ|pc|CT|pc|D2|pc|C7|pc|C4|pc|H6|pc|D4|pc|C5|pc|SA|pc|S6|pc|H7|pc|S4|pc|SQ|pc|H2|pc|D7|pc|S3|pc|S9|pc|D3|pc|H8|pc|SJ|pc|H9|pc|ST|pc|D5|pc|HJ|pc|D8|pc|DA|pc|DJ|pc|D6|pc|DT|pc|DK|pc|H3|pc|D9|pc|HQ|pc|HK|pc|S8|pc|DQ|
">
Board 5</a><br />Our side vulnerable</p>
<table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="width: 300px;"><tbody><tr><td align="center" width="100%">♠ K 6 <span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> A 2 <span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> A Q 10 5 3 ♣ Q J 4 2 </td></tr></tbody></table>
<p>
Partner passes, and RHO opens one spade. I bid one notrump. LHO doubles--pass--pass back to me.
</p><p>After an opening bid and a one-notrump overcall, the opponents are well placed to judge their defensive prospects. So it's usually wrong to sit. And with only a single spade stopper and two possible trump suits, now is not time to make an exception. The robots play "system on" after a double, with redouble showing a long minor (a method I don't care for). So partner probably has a balanced hand. That means two diamonds rates to be a playable spot.</p><p>
Still, it's wrong to bid two diamonds right away, since we might have a club fit. It would be a shame to bid two diamonds, get doubled, then see dummy hit with two diamonds and four clubs. I need to bring clubs into the picture somehow. But how?</p><p>
The obvious solution is to redouble. But the tooltip shows the robots play this as natural. I can't imagine why I would ever want to redouble for play in this auction, but those are the methods I'm stuck with. Given I can't redouble, the next best choice is simply to bid two clubs. If the opponents let me play there undoubled, I'm happy even if it's not our best strain. Any port in a storm. Of course, that probably won't happen. If no one can double two clubs, then they will probably bid something. Either way, I'm off the hook.</p><p>If they do double, I'll run to two diamonds. I can't be sure diamonds is a better spot than clubs. Partner still might have four clubs for all I know. But I'm no worse off than if I had bid two diamonds right away. I gave myself an extra chance and it didn't pan out.</p><p>
This is an important principle to follow in an auction where you may be in trouble:<i> Never bypass a potentially playable spot</i>. If you think you
know where you belong and it is higher-ranking than other possible spots, you have plenty of time to get there. It doesn't hurt to try other contracts
on the way and see if the opponents let you off the hook.</p><p>
I have heard some object to this approach by saying it may get the opponents into a "doubling rhythm."
Bidding two clubs, then running to diamonds may induce them to double two diamonds with a hand where they would let you escape if you bid it right away.
</p><p>
Hogwash! Competent opponents don't get into "doubling rhythms." They are looking at the same cards whether you bid two diamonds right away or get there after bidding clubs first. If they have a double of two diamonds, they will double. If they don't, they won't.</p><p>True, <i>incompetent </i>opponents may base their doubles on emotions rather than on the cards they are looking at. But I'm not worried about such opponents.
If they double two diamonds when they don't have a double, there is no particular reason to believe they are making
the right decision. There is a clear advantage in bidding clubs <i>en route</i> to two diamonds. I'm not going to give up that advantage for fear the opponents will do something foolish and it will work out in their favor.</p><p>
Having said that, does the fact that I am playing with a robot change anything? Who knows what partner will think is going on if I bid two clubs, then run to
two diamonds? Will he take me back to three clubs with two-three in the minors? Let's hope not.
</p><p>
I bid two clubs, and LHO doubles. Partner bids two hearts. Partner's auction makes no sense. He can't have five hearts, else he would have transferred on the previous round. So why is he running from two clubs doubled to a four-card suit? He must have a stiff club. But with 4-4-4-1, why not run to two diamonds? Or why not take advantage of the fact that we play Stayman after the double and bid that? Maybe he's 5-4-3-1. That's the only pattern I can think of where this sequence makes any sense. If we get doubled here, should I back my judgment and run to two spades?</p><p>
Fortunately I don't have to make that decision. RHO comes to the rescue and bids two spades himself. Everyone passes and I have to find a lead.</p><p>RHO's reluctance to give his partner a chance to double two hearts suggests a singleton heart.
So LHO rates to have six of them. That means
leading partner's suit is out. Leading partner's presumed shortness, clubs, looks better. Leading an honor is usually wrong when partner is short. so I choose the deuce of clubs..</p>
<div align="center"><table><tbody>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">NORTH<br />
<i>Robot</i><br />
♠ 7<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> Q J 8 7 6 5<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> K J 7<br />
♣ K 10 8<br />
<br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125">WEST<br />
<i>Phillip</i><br />
♠ K 6<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> A 2<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> A Q 10 5 3<br />
♣ Q J 4 2<br />
<br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
</tbody></table></div>
<table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="width: 300px;">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td align="direction in globals.directions:left" width="25%"><b>West</b></td>
<td align="direction in globals.directions:left" width="25%"><b>North</b></td>
<td align="direction in globals.directions:left" width="25%"><b>East</b></td>
<td align="direction in globals.directions:left" width="25%"><b>South</b></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="25%"><i>Phillip</i></td>
<td align="left" width="25%"><i>Robot</i></td>
<td align="left" width="25%"><i>Robot</i></td>
<td align="left" width="25%"><i>Robot</i></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="25%"> </td>
<td align="left" width="25%"> </td>
<td align="left" width="25%">Pass</td>
<td align="left" width="25%">1 ♠</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="25%">1 NT</td>
<td align="left" width="25%">Double</td>
<td align="left" width="25%">Pass</td>
<td align="left" width="25%">Pass</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="25%">2 ♣</td>
<td align="left" width="25%">Double</td>
<td align="left" width="25%">2 <span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span></td>
<td align="left" width="25%">2 ♠</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="25%">(All pass)</td>
<td align="left" width="25%"> </td>
<td align="left" width="25%"> </td>
<td align="left" width="25%"> </td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<p>
Dummy has six hearts as expected. Although he also has a spade, so apparently partner has only four of them. Is he actually 4-4-4-1?
Or did he run from two clubs with 4-4-3-2? That makes no sense either. With a doubleton club, he should pass.
I will run myself if I don't have five clubs.
</p><p>
Declarer plays the club eight from dummy, and partner plays the nine. Declarer wins with the ace and leads the ten of hearts.
</p><p>
It must be right to win this and lead the club queen. Perhaps partner can ruff out the king and lead a diamond to my ace. Then I can cash the club jack and lead another club for partner to overruff dummy.
</p><p>
I play the ace, and partner follows with the four. Now queen of clubs--king--six--four. So partner is 4-4-3-2. I can still give him a club ruff when I get in with
the spade king.
</p><p>
Declarer leads the seven of spades from dummy--deuce--five. I win the king and cash the jack of clubs. Partner pitches the diamond deuce. I play another club. Partner doesn't ruff it. He pitches another diamond, allowing declarer to win the trick with the club five. Apparently he has a natural trump trick.</p><p>In time we score the spade jack and the diamond ace. Making two.
</p>
<div align="center"><table><tbody>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">NORTH<br />
<i>Robot</i><br />
♠ 7<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> Q J 8 7 6 5<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> K J 7<br />
♣ K 10 8<br />
<br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125">WEST<br />
<i>Phillip</i><br />
♠ K 6<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> A 2<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> A Q 10 5 3<br />
♣ Q J 4 2<br />
<br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">EAST<br />
<i>Robot</i><br />
♠ J 4 3 2<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> K 9 4 3<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> 6 4 2<br />
♣ 9 6<br />
<br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">SOUTH<br />
<i>Robot</i><br />
♠ A Q 10 9 8 5<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> 10<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> 9 8<br />
♣ A 7 5 3<br />
</td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
</tbody></table></div>
<p>
Minus 110 is worth 79%.
</p><p>
If we were playing natural advances instead of "system on" after the double, partner should bid two diamonds, ostensibly to play. Then, if doubled, he can redouble to show the next two higher suits.
We should escape after that start. I will pass two diamonds, and LHO will, or should, bid two hearts.
</p><p>
I didn't even comment on the one notrump overcall, since it struck me as routine. But it was actually an unpopular choice. Some doubled, a strange decision with
a doubleton heart. But the most popular choice was two diamonds. That seems misguided to me. Not only is your diamond suit below par for a vulnerable two-level overcall. But also your likeliest game is three notrump. A one-notrump overcall makes it easier to get there than a two-diamond overcall.</p><p>Only three people were faced with the decision I was with how to handle the double of one notrump. Two sat it out and went for 500 and 800.</p><p>One ran to two diamonds. North doubled. Again, East ran to two hearts, which makes even less sense after two diamonds than after two clubs. This time, however, South passed. (Perhaps he bid when his partner doubled clubs because he thought the club fit increased their offensive potential.) When two hearts was passed around to North, he passed it out and collected 400. Presumably he was afraid his partner would pull if he doubled, and defending, even undoubled, had to be better than declaring.</p><p>So bidding two clubs did turn out to be the best way of handling the double. Although, since neither partner nor the opponents took sensible actions in any scenario, I can't claim this board proves anything. </p>Phillip Martinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12686740850642509457noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6167918454701652348.post-16883083270291850182023-10-29T12:43:00.001-04:002023-10-29T13:34:36.828-04:00Free Weekly Instant Tournament - October 27 - Board 4
<p style="font-weight: bold; text-align: left;">
<a href="https://www.bridgebase.com/tools/handviewer.html?lin=st||pn|PSMartin,~~M2060115,~~M2230467,~~M2396vkg|md|2S85HT85DA8432CAKJ,SAJ7HK94DT765C954,SQ9HA73DQJCQ87632,SKT6432HQJ62DK9CT|sv|b|rh||ah|Board%204|mb|P|mb|P|mb|P|mb|1D|an|Minor%20suit%20opening%20--%203+%20!D;%2011-21%20HCP;%2012-22%20total%20points|mb|P|mb|2C|an|Non-game-forcing%20two-over-one%20--%205+%20!C;%203-%20!D;%209-11%20HCP;%2010-12%20total%20points%20|mb|P|mb|P|mb|P|pc|HQ|pc|H5|pc|H9|pc|H3|pc|H2|pc|H8|pc|HK|pc|HA|pc|DJ|pc|DK|pc|DA|pc|D7|pc|D2|pc|D6|pc|DQ|pc|D9|pc|C2|pc|CT|pc|CA|pc|C5|pc|D3|pc|D5|pc|CQ|pc|S6|pc|C3|pc|S3|pc|CK|pc|C9|pc|D4|pc|DT|pc|C6|pc|S4|pc|C7|pc|S2|pc|CJ|pc|C4|pc|D8|pc|S7|pc|H7|pc|H6|pc|S5|pc|SA|pc|S9|pc|ST|pc|H4|pc|C8|pc|HJ|pc|HT|pc|SQ|pc|SK|pc|S8|pc|SJ|
">
Board 4</a><br />Both sides vulnerable</p>
<table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="width: 300px;"><tbody><tr><td align="center" width="100%">♠ 8 5 <span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> 10 8 5 <span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> A 8 4 3 2 ♣ A K J </td></tr></tbody></table>
<p>
Three passes to me. I have 14 casino points (high-card points plus spade length). A widely accepted guideline is you need 15 casino points to open in fourth seat. I think this guideline is wrong. In
my experience, passing with 14 casino tends to work out badly. And, with three-plus honor tricks, 12 HCP is an under-evaluation anyway. So I open with one diamond. </p><p>LHO passes, partner bids two clubs, and RHO passes. Since partner is a passed hand, game is remote. I see no reason to disturb two clubs. I pass, as does LHO. RHO leads the queen of hearts.
</p>
<div align="center"><table><tbody>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">NORTH<br />
<i>Phillip</i><br />
♠ 8 5<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> 10 8 5<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> A 8 4 3 2<br />
♣ A K J<br />
<br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">SOUTH<br />
<i>Robot</i><br />
♠ Q 9<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> A 7 3<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> Q J<br />
♣ Q 8 7 6 3 2<br />
<br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
</tbody></table></div>
<table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="width: 300px;">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td align="direction in globals.directions:left" width="25%"><b>West</b></td>
<td align="direction in globals.directions:left" width="25%"><b>North</b></td>
<td align="direction in globals.directions:left" width="25%"><b>East</b></td>
<td align="direction in globals.directions:left" width="25%"><b>South</b></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="25%"><i>Robot</i></td>
<td align="left" width="25%"><i>Phillip</i></td>
<td align="left" width="25%"><i>Robot</i></td>
<td align="left" width="25%"><i>Robot</i></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="25%"> </td>
<td align="left" width="25%"> </td>
<td align="left" width="25%">Pass</td>
<td align="left" width="25%">Pass</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="25%">Pass</td>
<td align="left" width="25%">1 <span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span></td>
<td align="left" width="25%">Pass</td>
<td align="left" width="25%">2 ♣</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="25%">(All pass)</td>
<td align="left" width="25%"> </td>
<td align="left" width="25%"> </td>
<td align="left" width="25%"> </td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<p>
I have six clubs, a heart, and a diamond. Eight tricks. If the diamond king is onside I have nine and a possibility of more if I can set up the diamonds. If the diamond king is offside,
I might still make nine tricks if I can take a pitch on the diamond ace after losing the finesse.</p><p>Unfortunately, the opponents can cash all their major-suit tricks before I get a chance to pitch. The only way I can take a pitch is if I duck the opening lead and West switches. Is that possible? Maybe. He might switch to a trump, trying to stop me from ruffing the third round of spades. It's unlikely, but I don't see how ducking can cost.</p><p>
I play a low heart from dummy. East plays the nine, and I discourage with the three. West continues with the deuce of hearts--eight--king--ace.
</p><p>
The opponents have their major-suit winners established, and there is no way they can mistime the cash-out. I'm going to need the diamond king onside to make an overtrick. </p><p>Can I do better? Suppose I lead a diamond and West covers. I win, play a diamond back to my hand, lead a club to dummy, ruff a diamond (with the queen if East follows), and lead a second club to dummy. If diamonds were
three-three, I get two pitches to make five. If not, I may (depending on how the minor suits split) be able to ruff another diamond and return to dummy with a third club for one pitch, making four. Since I may need three club entries for this to work, I can't afford to play any trumps before embarking on this plan. So I am taking a risk that diamond are five-one. But I'm
willing to take that risk.</p><p>
I'd prefer West didn't cover, so I lead the diamond jack. He covers anyway. That probably means he has king doubleton. I take dummy's ace as East follows with the seven.</p><p>
I play a diamond to my queen. East follows with the six; West, with the nine.</p><p>Now a club--ten--ace--five, reaching this position:</p>
<div align="center"><table><tbody>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">NORTH<br />
<i>Phillip</i><br />
♠ 8 5<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> 10<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> 8 4 3<br />
♣ K J<br />
<br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">SOUTH<br />
<i>Robot</i><br />
♠ Q 9<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> 7<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> --<br />
♣ Q 8 7 6 3<br />
</td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
</tbody></table></div>
<p>I play a third diamond and ruff with the queen. West pitches the
six of spades. Now another club to dummy. West pitches the spade three. So this is going to work. East has both the long diamond and the last club. I claim making four.
</p>
<div align="center"><table><tbody>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">NORTH<br />
<i>Phillip</i><br />
♠ 8 5<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> 10 8 5<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> A 8 4 3 2<br />
♣ A K J<br />
<br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125">WEST<br />
<i>Robot</i><br />
♠ K 10 6 4 3 2<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> Q J 6 2<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> K 9<br />
♣ 10<br />
<br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">EAST<br />
<i>Robot</i><br />
♠ A J 7<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> K 9 4<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> 10 7 6 5<br />
♣ 9 5 4<br />
<br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">SOUTH<br />
<i>Robot</i><br />
♠ Q 9<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> A 7 3<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> Q J<br />
♣ Q 8 7 6 3 2<br />
</td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
</tbody></table></div>
<p>
Plus 130 is worth 82%. I'm not surprised. As I've observed before, any time you must delay drawing trump, you get a good board in this field.
</p><p>
I did make a mistake, however. After I ducked the heart, West can hold me to nine tricks by switching to a trump, forcing me to use one of my trump entries before I'm ready. It's ironic that I ducked
<i>hoping</i> he would switch to a trump when in fact that's the winning defense.
I was so focused on trying to make an overtrick if the diamond finesse was off that I didn't consider what would happen if
the finesse worked.
</p><p>
It's not clear whether I made the wrong play or not. But I certainly made a mistake in not recognizing the danger of ducking trick one. So let's reconsider my decision.</p><p>
Ducking the heart ace is right if the diamond king is offside and the opponents misdefend. Winning the
heart ace is right if I the diamond king is onside and I can use three dummy entries and West is up to finding the club switch. Both of those are parlays
and both parlays depend on the caliber of the opponents. So it's a hard question to answer.</p><p>
Perhaps we can make the question easier by reframing it. If West is going to continue hearts, it makes no difference whether I duck or not. So let's assume I duck and West shifts to a club. Am I happy?</p><p>If the diamond king is offside, I'm happy. If it's onside, I don't know yet. If diamonds are three-three, my duck didn't cost. If diamonds are four-two and I can't manage a second ruff, my duck didn't cost.
So I'll be happy half the time and unhappy something less than half. That suggests I was right to duck.</p><p>That assumes, of course, that there is little correlation between the fact that West chooses to shift to a club and the fact that it's the right play. In other words, I'm assuming that the club shift itself doesn't significantly change the odds of who has the diamond king. </p><p>Is that a valid assumption? It's not clear. There are few defenders who would find a club shift for the right reason. But there are probably few defenders who would find a club shift for <i>any </i>reason, even a bad one. So perhaps it's a mistake to give West the chance.</p><p>I'm just as happy none of this occurred to me at the time. I might still be sitting here deciding what to do.</p>Phillip Martinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12686740850642509457noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6167918454701652348.post-45920638419015710702023-10-22T12:56:00.002-04:002023-10-22T22:13:17.061-04:00Free Weekly Instant Tournament - October 20 - Board 3
<p style="font-weight: bold; text-align: left;">
<a href="https://www.bridgebase.com/tools/handviewer.html?lin=st||pn|PSMartin,~~M2712qpg,~~M3628m5i,~~M3760b5h|md|1SK5HAQ542DJ6CJ952,SAQ9742HT7D75CA64,SJ863HK86DAK943CT,STHJ93DQT82CKQ873|sv|e|rh||ah|Board%203|mb|P|mb|2S|an|Weak%20two%20bid%20--%201-4%20!C;%201-3%20!D;%201-3%20!H;%206+%20!S;%206-10%20HCP;%207+%20total%20points%20|mb|3D|an|Overcall%20--%205+%20!D;%2012+%20HCP;%2019-%20total%20points%20|mb|P|mb|P|mb|P|pc|ST|pc|S5|pc|SQ|pc|S6|pc|SA|pc|S3|pc|H3|pc|SK|pc|CA|pc|CT|pc|C3|pc|C2|pc|C4|pc|D3|pc|C7|pc|C5|pc|S8|pc|H9|pc|D6|pc|S9|pc|DJ|pc|D7|pc|DA|pc|D2|pc|DK|pc|D8|pc|C9|pc|D5|mc|8|">
Board 3</a><br />Opponents vulnerable</p>
<p>
I never know what to answer when people ask me if I open light.
</p><p>
Once, I opened a hand where my counterpart at the other table passed, then responded one diamond, negative, to his partner's strong club opening.</p><p>On another occasion, playing against Betty Ann Kennedy and Carol Sanders, the auction proceeded one-club (natural)--pass--pass to me. I passed, and, when Carol laid down the dummy, my partner commented that I would have opened one spade with that hand. (For the record, four spades was cold, and we defeated one club.)
</p><p>
One might consider those openings light. Still, if I tell my opponents I open light, then pass with this hand:</p>
<table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="width: 300px;"><tbody><tr><td align="center" width="100%">♠ K 5 <span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> A Q 5 4 2 <span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> J 6 ♣ J 9 5 2 </td></tr></tbody></table>
<p>
I suspect they will feel they had been lied to. But flat hands with scattered high cards and little playing strength aren't the ones that tempt me. This isn't a <i>light</i> opening in my view; it's a <i>sub-par</i> opening.
</p><p>
I know most of the field will see 11 HCP and open one heart, especially in a robot tournament, where players are loathe to risk a pass-out. But I have my standards. I pass.
</p><p>
LHO opens with two spades, weak, and partner bids three diamonds.
</p><p>
Normally I would bid three hearts or three notrump. Three hearts is probably better opposite a reliable partner, who will punt with three spades if he can't raise hearts. Three notrump may be a more practical choice
with a robot. But these aren't normal circumstances. This is a "best-hand' tournament, which means partner is
limited to 11 HCP. Under those conditions, it's unlikely any game is good, so I pass, and we buy it in three diamonds.</p><p>RHO leads the ten of spades.
</p>
<div align="center"><table><tbody>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">NORTH<br />
<i>Phillip</i><br />
♠ K 5<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> A Q 5 4 2<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> J 6<br />
♣ J 9 5 2<br />
<br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">SOUTH<br />
<i>Robot</i><br />
♠ J 8 6 3<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> K 8 6<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> A K 9 4 3<br />
♣ 10<br />
<br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
</tbody></table></div>
<table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="width: 300px;">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td align="direction in globals.directions:left" width="25%"><b>West</b></td>
<td align="direction in globals.directions:left" width="25%"><b>North</b></td>
<td align="direction in globals.directions:left" width="25%"><b>East</b></td>
<td align="direction in globals.directions:left" width="25%"><b>South</b></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="25%"><i>Robot</i></td>
<td align="left" width="25%"><i>Phillip</i></td>
<td align="left" width="25%"><i>Robot</i></td>
<td align="left" width="25%"><i>Robot</i></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="25%"> </td>
<td align="left" width="25%">Pass</td>
<td align="left" width="25%">2 ♠</td>
<td align="left" width="25%">3 <span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="25%">(All pass)</td>
<td align="left" width="25%"> </td>
<td align="left" width="25%"> </td>
<td align="left" width="25%"> </td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<p>
I'm not sure if I'm happy with this development or not. Since most will open my hand, the field will be in four hearts. It's not clear whether that will make.</p><p>
I play a low spade from dummy, East wins with the queen, and I drop the six. East continues with the ace of spades. I play the three, and West pitches the three of hearts. West wouldn't be pitching from four hearts,
so that means hearts are breaking, which is disappointing. The robots almost invariably pitch count cards, so West probably has three hearts. 1-3-4-5 is his likeliest shape. If that's what he has, I must lose two diamonds and a club for down one. To make, I need for diamonds to be three-three, giving West 1-3-3-6.
</p><p>
East cashes the club ace. That's an awfully good hand for a weak two-bid. Ace-queen sixth and an ace? That's the kind of "light" opening I like. I would have opened <i>one</i> spade, not two. In any event, West must have all the remaining
high cards.
</p><p>
East continues with the four of clubs. I ruff, and West follows with the seven.
</p><p>
If trumps are three-three, I can play three rounds of trumps and claim. If diamonds don't break, however, West will draw my trumps and cash
his clubs for down four. That doesn't rate to be a good result.
</p><p>
Should I go all out to make it? I'm not competing with anyone who makes four hearts. The only tables I care about are those going down. If hold three diamonds to down one, I'll tie them. If I try to make three diamonds, I'll gain half a matchpoint against those pairs if I succeed and lose half a matchpoint if I don't. So it's a
50-50 proposition. I should try to make this only if I think I have at least a 50% shot. West is a priori more likely to be 1-3-4-5 than to be 1-3-3-6. And nothing that has happened to change
those odds. So my percentage play is to cash my top trumps and run winners, conceding two trump tricks.
</p><p>
I do need to a ruff my spade loser spade first, though. I lead the spade eight. West pitches the nine of hearts, and I ruff in dummy. I cash the ace and king of diamonds. East plays seven-five; West plays deuce-eight. I can still try to make this by playing another diamond, but I see no reason to change my mind. I run winners, conceding down one.
</p>
<div align="center"><table><tbody>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">NORTH<br />
<i>Phillip</i><br />
♠ K 5<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> A Q 5 4 2<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> J 6<br />
♣ J 9 5 2<br />
<br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125">WEST<br />
<i>Robot</i><br />
♠ 10<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> J 9 3<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> Q 10 8 2<br />
♣ K Q 8 7 3<br />
<br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">EAST<br />
<i>Robot</i><br />
♠ A Q 9 7 4 2<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> 10 7<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> 7 5<br />
♣ A 6 4<br />
<br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">SOUTH<br />
<i>Robot</i><br />
♠ J 8 6 3<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> K 8 6<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> A K 9 4 3<br />
♣ 10<br />
</td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
</tbody></table></div>
<p>
Minus 50 is worth 75%. As expected, most of the field was in four hearts. No one made it, and some managed to go down more than one.</p>Phillip Martinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12686740850642509457noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6167918454701652348.post-41255667947718227632023-10-15T13:50:00.000-04:002023-10-15T13:50:24.729-04:00Free Weekly Instant Tournament - October 13 - Board 2
<p style="font-weight: bold; text-align: left;">
<a href="https://www.bridgebase.com/tools/handviewer.html?lin=st||pn|PSMartin,~~M215079q,~~M21509q1,~~M21510wf|md|4SKQ63HA87DKT4CAK8,SJ542HQ92D932C543,ST97HJT63DAQJ65CT,SA8HK54D87CQJ9762|sv|n|rh||ah|Board%202|mb|P|mb|1C|an|Minor%20suit%20opening%20--%203+%20!C;%2011-21%20HCP;%2012-22%20total%20points|mb|P|mb|1H|an|One%20over%20one%20--%204+%20!H;%206+%20total%20points%20|mb|P|mb|2N|an|Jump%20in%20notrump%20--%203-5%20!C;%202-3%20!D;%202-3%20!H;%202-4%20!S;%2018-19%20HCP;%2022-%20tot|mb|P|mb|3N|an|4+%20!H;%207-12%20HCP%20|mb|P|mb|P|mb|P|pc|S2|pc|S7|pc|SA|pc|S3|pc|CQ|pc|CA|pc|C3|pc|CT|pc|SK|pc|S4|pc|S9|pc|S8|pc|D4|pc|D2|pc|DJ|pc|D7|pc|HJ|pc|H4|pc|H7|pc|HQ|pc|S5|pc|ST|pc|C2|pc|S6|mc|11|
">
Board 2</a><br />Our side vulnerable</p>
<table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="width: 300px;"><tbody><tr><td align="center" width="100%">♠ K Q 6 3 <span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> A 8 7 <span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> K 10 4 ♣ A K 8 </td></tr></tbody></table>
<p>
RHO passes. I bid one club and partner responds with one heart. I rebid two notrump, showing 18 to 19 HCP balanced, and partner raises to three. LHO leads the deuce of spades.</p>
<div align="center"><table><tbody>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">NORTH<br />
<i>Robot</i><br />
♠ 10 9 7<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> J 10 6 3<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> A Q J 6 5<br />
♣ 10<br />
<br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">SOUTH<br />
<i>Phillip</i><br />
♠ K Q 6 3<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> A 8 7<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> K 10 4<br />
♣ A K 8<br />
<br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
</tbody></table></div>
<table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="width: 300px;">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td align="direction in globals.directions:left" width="25%"><b>West</b></td>
<td align="direction in globals.directions:left" width="25%"><b>North</b></td>
<td align="direction in globals.directions:left" width="25%"><b>East</b></td>
<td align="direction in globals.directions:left" width="25%"><b>South</b></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="25%"><i>Robot</i></td>
<td align="left" width="25%"><i>Robot</i></td>
<td align="left" width="25%"><i>Robot</i></td>
<td align="left" width="25%"><i>Phillip</i></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="25%"> </td>
<td align="left" width="25%"> </td>
<td align="left" width="25%">Pass</td>
<td align="left" width="25%">1 ♣</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="25%">Pass</td>
<td align="left" width="25%">1 <span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span></td>
<td align="left" width="25%">Pass</td>
<td align="left" width="25%">2 NT</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="25%">Pass</td>
<td align="left" width="25%">3 NT</td>
<td align="left" width="25%">(All pass)</td>
<td align="left" width="25%"> </td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<p>West appears to have three or four spades. What should I play from dummy at trick one? </p><p>A lead from ace-jack third would be unusual, so I'll assume West doesn't have that. I'll also assume East will play the ace if he has it, rendering my choice at trick one immaterial. (If I decide to play the seven and East finds the eight from ace-eight third, I'll start holding my cards back.)</p><p>
Under those assumptions, these are the only layouts I can think of where my play matters:</p>
<table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="width: 200px;">
<tbody>
<tr><td align="left" width="50%">(A) ♠ AJxx</td><td align="left" width="50%"> ♠ 8x</td></tr>
<tr><td align="left" width="50%">(B) ♠ A8xx</td><td align="left" width="50%"> ♠ Jx</td></tr>
<tr><td align="left" width="50%">(C) ♠ Axxx</td><td align="left" width="50%"> ♠ J8</td></tr>
<tr><td align="left" width="50%">(D) ♠ Axx</td><td align="left" width="50%"> ♠ J8x</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<p>
In (A), playing the ten gives me two spade tricks. I can take two spade tricks by playing the seven also, but I would have to lose a trick to the spade jack, and I would prefer not to do that.
</p><p>
In the remaining cases, I can take three spade tricks if I do the right thing. In (B), playing the ten works provided I finesse the seven on the next round, whereas playing the seven always works. In (C) and (D), playing the ten works provided I <i>don't</i> finesse the seven on the next round. Playing the seven
again always works.</p><p>
In summary: (1) playing the ten, intending to finesse the seven, works for (A) and (B) (six cases); (2) playing the ten and <i>not</i>
finessing the seven works for (A) and (C) (four cases); and (3) playing the seven immediately works for (B), (C), and (D) (seven cases).<i> A priori</i>, then, the seven is the percentage play.
</p><p>
This assumes, however, that all these cases are equally likely, that West is just as likely to lead a spade from ace-jack fourth as from ace third. For a human, that's hardly
true. He is more likely to lead from ace-jack fourth. So against a human, the ten might be a better choice.</p><p>Against that, the gain in playing the ten is uncertain. Against (A), I can always take two and only spade tricks. Playing the ten gains a tempo, not a trick. It's not clear at this point whether that tempo is meaningful.</p><p>Against a human, I'm not sure what I would do. But against a robot, who likes short-suit leads, I think the seven is probably better.
</p><p>I play the seven, and East wins with the ace. So all this analysis was moot. I now have five diamond tricks, a heart, two clubs, and two spades. Ten tricks ready to cash. If I have three spade tricks, I have eleven.</p><p>At trick two, West shifts to the club queen. If the shift is from queen-jack-nine, I might be able to catch East in a club-heart squeeze for an eleventh trick. To set up the squeeze, I will have to duck a trick to correct the count, and I will have to isolate the heart guard in East's hand. If the heart honors
are split, I can do both
of these things by crossing to dummy and leading the heart jack. East can't afford to cover, so I will duck the trick to West. If West defends passively, I
can run my winners, coming down to this position:
</p>
<div align="center"><table><tbody>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">NORTH<br />
<i>Robot</i><br />
♠ --<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> 10 6<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> 5<br />
♣ --<br />
<br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">SOUTH<br />
<i>Phillip</i><br />
♠ --<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> A 8<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> --<br />
♣ 8<br />
</td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
</tbody></table></div>
<p>
The last diamond squeezes East in hearts and clubs. West can break up the squeeze
by continuing hearts. But if he has the heart nine, he can't do that.</p><p>I win the club shift with the ace; (The king clarifies the position for East.) West follows with the three. I might as well cash a spade to see if the jack drops. If it doesn't, testing for three-three spades will have to wait until after I duck the heart.</p><p>Actually, there is another reason to cash a spade. If West has jack-eight fourth, cashing a spade allows him to return the spade
jack after winning his heart trick. The prospect of setting up his spade eight may make a spade continuation appealing and may prevent him from finding the
heart continuation to break up the squeeze.</p><p>I cash the spade king. East follows with the eight. Too bad. Now West doesn't have a safe spade exit.</p><p>To lead the heart jack from dummy, I'll need to take the slight risk that diamonds are five-zero. I lead a low diamond to dummy's jack. Fortunately, both
opponents follow. Now the heart jack--four--seven--queen.</p><p>West doesn't find a heart continuation. In fact, he leads away from his spade jack, giving my my eleventh trick in the spade suit. I claim the balance. Making five.
</p>
<div align="center"><table><tbody>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">NORTH<br />
<i>Robot</i><br />
♠ 10 9 7<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> J 10 6 3<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> A Q J 6 5<br />
♣ 10<br />
<br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125">WEST<br />
<i>Robot</i><br />
♠ J 5 4 2<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> Q 9 2<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> 9 3 2<br />
♣ 5 4 3<br />
<br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">EAST<br />
<i>Robot</i><br />
♠ A 8<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> K 5 4<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> 8 7<br />
♣ Q J 9 7 6 2<br />
<br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">SOUTH<br />
<i>Phillip</i><br />
♠ K Q 6 3<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> A 8 7<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> K 10 4<br />
♣ A K 8<br />
</td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
</tbody></table></div>
<p>
Plus 660 is worth 96%. The spade shift at the end made it easy, but there was nothing the opponents could do. East was going to be squeezed anyway.</p><p>Most declarers ran diamonds right away, destroying the possibility of a squeeze. Sometimes it's a good idea to run your winners early, forcing the opponents to discard before they know what's going on. Sometimes that's true even it means giving up on a legitimate chance, provided that chance is small. </p><p>I don't think that's the case here, however. The squeeze isn't all that unlikely. And it's hard to see what mistake the opponents will make if you run diamonds early. </p>Phillip Martinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12686740850642509457noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6167918454701652348.post-90187465713661149352023-10-08T14:37:00.001-04:002023-10-11T10:32:00.281-04:00Free Weekly Instant Tournament - October 6 - Board 1
<p style="font-weight: bold; text-align: left;">
<a href="https://www.bridgebase.com/tools/handviewer.html?lin=st||pn|PSMartin,~~M643137e,~~M6457zq8,~~M7761zty|md|3S943HAKQ642DA62CA,SA82H7DQJ43CK7654,SQ65HJ98DK87CJT98,SKJT7HT53DT95CQ32|sv|o|rh||ah|Board%201|mb|P|mb|P|mb|1H|an|Major%20suit%20opening%20--%205+%20!H;%2011-21%20HCP;%2012-22%20total%20points|mb|P|mb|2H|an|Simple%20raise%20--%203+%20!H;%207-10%20total%20points%20|mb|P|mb|4H|an|5+%20!H;%2017-21%20HCP;%2018-22%20total%20points|mb|P|mb|P|mb|P|pc|H7|pc|H8|pc|HT|pc|HK|pc|CA|pc|C4|pc|C8|pc|C2|pc|H2|pc|D4|pc|H9|pc|H5|pc|C9|pc|CQ|pc|H4|pc|C6|pc|H6|pc|S2|pc|HJ|pc|H3|pc|CT|pc|C3|pc|S3|pc|CK|pc|SA|pc|S5|pc|S7|pc|S4|pc|DQ|pc|DK|pc|D5|pc|D2|pc|CJ|pc|SJ|pc|S9|pc|C7|pc|S6|pc|ST|pc|HQ|pc|S8|pc|HA|pc|C5|pc|D7|pc|SK|pc|DA|pc|D3|pc|D8|pc|D9|pc|D6|pc|DJ|pc|SQ|pc|DT|
">
Board 1</a><br />Neither vulnerable</p>
<table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="width: 300px;"><tbody><tr><td align="center" width="100%">♠ 9 4 3 <span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> A K Q 6 4 2 <span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> A 6 2 ♣ A </td></tr></tbody></table>
<p>
Two passes to me. I open with one heart, LHO passes, and partner raises to two hearts. I'm worth driving to game, but it's not clear which game to drive to. I have eight tricks off the top, so one trick in partner's hand, assuming it's fast enough, is all I need for three notrump. Finding ten tricks in hearts may be harder. </p><p>
At IMPs, I would certainly bid three notrump, since it rates to be the safer game. But at matchpoints, the prospect of a spade or diamond ruff in dummy tempts me to try four hearts.</p><p>Players often get this backwards, spurning a major to play three notrump at matchpoints but not at IMPs. At matchpoints, it's better to play the major if it takes only one trick more than notrump. At IMPs, the major must take <i>two</i> tricks more (ten versus eight) before the
major is better. So,
in general, you should choose the major more often at matchpoints than at IMPs.
</p><p>
I bid four hearts, everyone passes, and LHO leads the seven of hearts.
</p>
<div align="center"><table><tbody>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">NORTH<br />
<i>Robot</i><br />
♠ Q 6 5<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> J 9 8<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> K 8 7<br />
♣ J 10 9 8<br />
<br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">SOUTH<br />
<i>Phillip</i><br />
♠ 9 4 3<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> A K Q 6 4 2<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> A 6 2<br />
♣ A<br />
<br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
</tbody></table></div>
<table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="width: 300px;">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td align="direction in globals.directions:left" width="25%"><b>West</b></td>
<td align="direction in globals.directions:left" width="25%"><b>North</b></td>
<td align="direction in globals.directions:left" width="25%"><b>East</b></td>
<td align="direction in globals.directions:left" width="25%"><b>South</b></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="25%"><i>Robot</i></td>
<td align="left" width="25%"><i>Robot</i></td>
<td align="left" width="25%"><i>Robot</i></td>
<td align="left" width="25%"><i>Phillip</i></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="25%"> </td>
<td align="left" width="25%">Pass</td>
<td align="left" width="25%">Pass</td>
<td align="left" width="25%">1 <span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="25%">Pass</td>
<td align="left" width="25%">2 <span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span></td>
<td align="left" width="25%">Pass</td>
<td align="left" width="25%">4 <span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="25%">(All pass)</td>
<td align="left" width="25%"> </td>
<td align="left" width="25%"> </td>
<td align="left" width="25%"> </td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<p>
Three notrump is clearly the right spot at IMPs. Unless the opponents can take five spade tricks off the top, three notrump is cold, and four hearts is tenuous. It's not clear what the right spot at matchpoints is.</p><p>It's unlikely West led a trump holding the
ace-king of spades, so I will need to find my tenth trick in the club suit. I can take two ruffing finesses, but I need three dummy entries to do so. This means I need to reach dummy twice in hearts. Does that work? I can unblock the club ace, lead a heart to
dummy, and lead the jack of clubs, ruffing if East covers and pitching a spade if he doesn't. Then another heart to dummy for the second club finesse. Finally, I return to dummy with the diamond king to take my pitch.
</p><p>Yes, it works, assuming East has at least one club honor. The question is, do I have two trump entries? If I play low on this trick and RHO covers with the ten, then yes, I do. If the ten does not appear, I will need to decide whether to play for two-two hearts or
to finesse West for the ten.
</p><p>
I play the heart eight. East covers with the ten. Problem solved.
</p><p>
I win in my hand with the king, cash the club ace--four--eight--deuce and play the deuce of hearts to dummy. West pitches the diamond four. So East made an error in covering. I would go down had he withheld the ten.
</p><p>
I lead the club nine. East covers with the queen, and I ruff. West follows with the six.
</p><p>
I lead another heart to dummy, lead the club ten, pitching a spade, and lose the trick to West's king. Eventually I pitch my diamond loser on the good club. Making four.</p>
<div align="center"><table><tbody>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">NORTH<br />
<i>Robot</i><br />
♠ Q 6 5<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> J 9 8<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> K 8 7<br />
♣ J 10 9 8<br />
<br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125">WEST<br />
<i>Robot</i><br />
♠ A 8 2<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> 7<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> Q J 4 3<br />
♣ K 7 6 5 4<br />
<br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">EAST<br />
<i>Robot</i><br />
♠ K J 10 7<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> 10 5 3<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> 10 9 5<br />
♣ Q 3 2<br />
<br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">SOUTH<br />
<i>Phillip</i><br />
♠ 9 4 3<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> A K Q 6 4 2<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> A 6 2<br />
♣ A<br />
</td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
</tbody></table></div>
<p>
Plus 420 is worth 93%. No one was in three notrump. Most of the field was in four hearts going down. As I've observed before, the field in these Instant Tournaments is terrified of not drawing trump. Any time you must delay drawing trump, you
get a ridiculously good result.
</p><p>
East could defeat this contract by playing a low heart at trick one. This is the kind of play a human is more likely to find than a robot. Robots decide what to do by generating random deals. If a robot doesn't happen to
come across a deal where a particular play matters, it has no reason to find that play. </p><p>Humans, on the other hand, can sometimes follow general principles without needing to construct a full deal. That's not always a good idea. Sometimes general
principles fail. But here this approach works just fine. You can see that if you play low, you deprive declarer of a late dummy entry. That's often a good idea even if you can't see how it might help. So playing low should be routine for an expert human.
</p><p>
Robots would play better if they started with their deal-generating approach, then followed general principles if they thought their play didn't matter. But where should these general principles come from? A few years ago,
the state of the art required deriving rules by interviewing human experts. This was always an unreliable process, since experts have often internalized their expertise and aren't consciously aware of why they do things. Now, with the advancements in generative AI, the technology exists to allow robots to generate their own rules. Using this approach, I suspect they
will find rules we aren't even aware of. If anyone succeeds in doing this, we will see an astonishing improvement in how robots play.
<br /><br /><b>Postscript:</b><br /><br />In the above write-up, I stated "I'm worth driving to game" without comment, since I didn't think that would be open to question. But when I posted the hand to the Bridge People group on Facebook, the majority of respondents simply made a game try. So I suppose I should justify my statement.<br /><br />The lazy way to decide what the hand is worth is simply to count points. You have 19 total points: 17 HCP plus one for the fifth heart and one for the sixth. Marshall Miles, in How to Win at Duplicate Bridge, suggested that, when partner raises your suit, you should add two points for holding six cards in your suit, two more for holding seven, one for a side singleton, and two for a side void. I've found this method of valuation to be quite accurate. Under this method, the hand is worth three additional points, bringing the total to 22. One normally makes a game try with 17 or 18 and drives to game with 19. So 22 is more than enough to bid game.<br /><br />A more accurate way to decide what the hand is worth is to give partner a perfect minimum, say, two kings, three trumps, and a useful doubleton. If that gives you a virtually laydown game, then you should invite. If partner accepts with a maximum, perhaps the perfect minimum with be included in that maximum. If not, then perhaps game won't be cold but will still have decent chances. With this hand, all you need for game is king doubleton of diamonds. That's a full king less than a game try by this method, so the hand is worth driving to game.</p>Phillip Martinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12686740850642509457noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6167918454701652348.post-59282802907077226662023-10-01T12:17:00.003-04:002023-10-01T12:22:58.211-04:00Free Weekly Instant Tournament - September 29 - Board 8
<p style="font-weight: bold; text-align: left;">
<a href="https://www.bridgebase.com/tools/handviewer.html?lin=st||pn|PSMartin,Robot,Robot,Robot|md|2SAKQHK962DQJ8CK97,SJ98HT43DK73CAQ83,S7643HQ85D94CJT65,ST52HAJ7DAT652C42|sv|o|rh||ah|Board%208|mb|P|mb|P|mb|P|mb|1C|an|Minor%20suit%20opening%20--%203+%20!C;%2011-21%20HCP;%2012-22%20total%20points|mb|P|mb|P|mb|D|an|3+%20!D;%203+%20!H;%203+%20!S;%209-11%20HCP;%2012-%20total%20points%20|mb|1N|an|3+%20!C;%2018-19%20HCP;%2022-%20total%20points;%20stop%20in%20!D;%20stop%20in%20!H;%20stop%20in%20!|mb|P|mb|P|mb|P|pc|H3|pc|H5|pc|HJ|pc|HK|pc|H2|pc|HT|pc|HQ|pc|HA|pc|D2|pc|DJ|pc|DK|pc|D9|pc|H4|pc|H8|pc|H7|pc|H6|pc|C5|pc|C4|pc|C9|pc|CQ|pc|S9|pc|S3|pc|S2|pc|SQ|pc|H9|pc|C3|pc|D4|pc|C2|pc|CK|pc|C8|pc|C6|pc|D6|pc|SA|pc|S8|pc|S4|pc|S5|pc|SK|pc|SJ|pc|S6|pc|ST|pc|C7|pc|CA|pc|CT|pc|D5|pc|D7|pc|S7|pc|DT|pc|DQ|pc|D8|pc|D3|pc|CJ|pc|DA|
">
Board 8</a><br />Neither side vulnerable</p>
<table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="width: 300px;"><tbody><tr><td align="center" width="100%">♠ A K Q <span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> K 9 6 2 <span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> Q J 8 ♣ K 9 7 </td></tr></tbody></table>
<p>
Three passes to me. I have a balanced hand with 18 HCP, so I open with one club, planning on rebidding two notrump to show 18 or 19. LHO and partner pass, and RHO balances with a double.</p><p>I can now show my 18 to 19 HCP by bidding <i>one </i>notrump. The problem with that call is that LHO might well have a good hand with a club stack. If so, he is well placed to double me. Redoubling might be safer than bidding one notrump. It gets my values across, allowing partner to compete with a long suit. And if partner is broke, we can perhaps find a playable spot at the one-level.</p><p>
Unfortunately, I haven't had much success engaging robots in complicated auctions. Even with my regular partners, I'm not sure what redouble should mean here. In particular, I'm not sure how prepared I should be to play in one club redoubled if LHO passes. So
I'm not about to throw this auction at a robot. If I bid one notrump, at least there is no doubt in partner's mind what I have. (If anyone has a firm agreement about what this redouble shows, please comment.)</p><p>
I bid one notrump. Everyone passes, and LHO leads the three of hearts.
</p>
<div align="center"><table><tbody>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">NORTH<br />
<i>Robot</i><br />
♠ 7 6 4 3<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> Q 8 5<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> 9 4<br />
♣ J 10 6 5<br />
<br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">SOUTH<br />
<i>Phillip</i><br />
♠ A K Q<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> K 9 6 2<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> Q J 8<br />
♣ K 9 7<br />
<br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
</tbody></table></div>
<table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="width: 300px;">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td align="direction in globals.directions:left" width="25%"><b>West</b></td>
<td align="direction in globals.directions:left" width="25%"><b>North</b></td>
<td align="direction in globals.directions:left" width="25%"><b>East</b></td>
<td align="direction in globals.directions:left" width="25%"><b>South</b></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="25%"><i>Robot</i></td>
<td align="left" width="25%"><i>Robot</i></td>
<td align="left" width="25%"><i>Robot</i></td>
<td align="left" width="25%"><i>Phillip</i></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="25%">Pass</td>
<td align="left" width="25%">Pass</td>
<td align="left" width="25%">Pass</td>
<td align="left" width="25%">1 ♣</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="25%">Pass</td>
<td align="left" width="25%">Pass</td>
<td align="left" width="25%">Double</td>
<td align="left" width="25%">1 NT</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="25%">(All pass)</td>
<td align="left" width="25%"> </td>
<td align="left" width="25%"> </td>
<td align="left" width="25%"> </td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<p>
Given the small heart lead and East's take-out double, hearts should be three-three. If West has led from jack third or ten third (or even ace third if I guess it), I have three heart tricks. Three spade tricks brings
me up to six. LHO probably would have led a diamond with ace-king, so I should have a diamond trick. If the opponents give me the tempi, I may manage one or two club tricks as well.
</p><p>
I start by playing a low heart from dummy. East plays the jack, and I win with the king. The robots sometimes falsecard from equals in the middle of the hand, but I've never seen them do that at trick one. So I'm
fairly confident the heart ten is onside.
</p><p>
I might as well set up my heart tricks. I'll have one heart entry to dummy. If I catch RHO with a doubleton club queen, I can set up two club tricks. Or I could play him for the ace and settle for one.</p><p>
I play the deuce of hearts--ten--queen--ace. The ten? I suppose he was unblocking in case his partner had ace-nine fourth and I had made a curious play.
</p><p>
East shifts to the diamond deuce. Is the jack or queen most likely to induce West to shift after winning this trick? Perhaps if I play the jack, West will place me with AJ10 or KJ!0 and not wish to finesse his partner's queen.
I play the jack, West wins with the king, and I unblock dummy's nine, trying to represent a good diamond holding in my hand.
</p><p>
I can't say whether my diamond plays worked or whether West was going to shift anyway. But, for whatever reason, West shifts to the heart four. I win in dummy as East follows with the seven.
</p><p>
East has the ace-jack of hearts and presumably the diamond ace. As a passed hand, he can't have the club ace, but he might have the queen. I lead the club five from dummy--four--nine--queen. West shifts to the nine of spades--three--deuce--queen.
If I lead the club king, I assume West will duck it, preventing me from taking two club tricks. But at least I'll have my seventh trick.</p><p>I might as well cash my heart first and force discards. On the heart nine,
West pitches the club three. I pitch dummy's diamond, and East pitches the club deuce. It appears East was either 4-3-4-2 or 3-3-5-2.
</p><p>
I lead the club king. West, of course, ducks, and East pitches the diamond six. I've made my contract. If I can guess the layout, I can take an overtrick. Here are the two possibilities.
</p>
(A)
<div align="center"><table><tbody>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">NORTH<br />
<i>Robot</i><br />
♠ 7 6 4<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> --<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> --<br />
♣ J 10<br />
<br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125">WEST<br />
<i>Robot</i><br />
♠ x<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> --<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> x x x<br />
♣ A<br />
<br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">EAST<br />
<i>Robot</i><br />
♠ x x x<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> --<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> A x<br />
♣ --<br />
<br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">SOUTH<br />
<i>Phillip</i><br />
♠ A K<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> --<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> Q 8<br />
♣ 7<br />
<br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
</tbody></table></div>
(B)
<div align="center"><table><tbody>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">NORTH<br />
<i>Robot</i><br />
♠ 7 6 4<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> --<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> --<br />
♣ J 10<br />
<br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125">WEST<br />
<i>Robot</i><br />
♠ x x<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> --<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> x x<br />
♣ A<br />
<br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">EAST<br />
<i>Robot</i><br />
♠ x x<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> --<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> A x x<br />
♣ --<br />
<br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">SOUTH<br />
<i>Phillip</i><br />
♠ A K<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> --<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> Q 8<br />
♣ 7<br />
</td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
</tbody></table></div>
<p>
In (A), I must cash one spade, depriving West of his exit, then lead a club. West must then lead a diamond up to my ace. If I make a mistake and cash <i>two </i>spades, East will have a spade to cash when he wins the diamond ace.
</p><p>
In (B), I must cash both spades before tossing West in. If I cash only one spade, he will have a spade to exit with, forcing me to lead diamonds out of my hand.
</p><p>
In any event, I must cash at least one spade. I cash the ace--eight--four--five. Now what? Which layout is more likely, (A) or (B)?
</p><p>
Perhaps with four diamonds West would have been more inclined to continue the suit after winning the king. In fact, maybe he would have bid two diamonds over one notrump with four of them. I don't know if he would or wouldn't. But at least he would have the option. With 3-3-3-4, he has no suit to bid. </p><p>Neither inference is especially compelling, but at least they both suggest (B). I can't think of any other clues.</p><p>
I cash the spade king. Everyone follows. I exit with a club and score my diamond queen in the end. Making two
</p>
<div align="center"><table><tbody>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">NORTH<br />
<i>Robot</i><br />
♠ 7 6 4 3<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> Q 8 5<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> 9 4<br />
♣ J 10 6 5<br />
<br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125">WEST<br />
<i>Robot</i><br />
♠ J 9 8<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> 10 4 3<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> K 7 3<br />
♣ A Q 8 3<br />
<br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">EAST<br />
<i>Robot</i><br />
♠ 10 5 2<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> A J 7<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> A 10 6 5 2<br />
♣ 4 2<br />
<br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">SOUTH<br />
<i>Phillip</i><br />
♠ A K Q<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> K 9 6 2<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> Q J 8<br />
♣ K 9 7<br />
</td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
</tbody></table></div>
<p>
Plus 120 is worth 100%. The overtrick made little difference. Even making one would have been worth 96%.</p><p>It's not my declarer play that made the difference, however. Weirdly, almost everyone is opening one notrump with this hand. I have no idea why. But against one notrump--all pass, West chooses to lead a diamond, which beats the contract.</p><p>That's also weird. I would do exactly the opposite. After one notrump-- all pass, one leans toward leading a major, since dummy won't have five cards in the major but partner
might. But on the auction we had, partner is unlikely to have a five-card major, since he chose to double rather than overcall. If he has a five-card suit, it's probably diamonds. So I would choose a diamond on our auction but not after one notrump-all pass.</p>Phillip Martinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12686740850642509457noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6167918454701652348.post-42860082920131283322023-09-24T12:27:00.000-04:002023-09-24T12:27:29.513-04:00Free Weekly Instant Tournament - September 22 - Board 7
<p style="font-weight: bold; text-align: left;">
<a href="https://www.bridgebase.com/tools/handviewer.html?lin=st||pn|PSMartin,~~M10754wh,~~M11129sa,~~M12395g6|md|1SAKT984HK974DAQCK,SQ76HQJ5DJT32CQT7,SJ32H62D975CA8654,S5HAT83DK864CJ932|sv|b|rh||ah|Board%207|mb|1S|an|Major%20suit%20opening%20--%205+%20!S;%2011-21%20HCP;%2012-22%20total%20points|mb|P|mb|1N|an|Forcing%20one%20notrump%20--%203-%20!S;%206+%20HCP;%2012-%20total%20points%20|mb|P|mb|2H|an|New%20suit%20--%204+%20!H;%205+%20!S;%2011+%20HCP;%2012-18%20total%20points|mb|P|mb|2S|an|3-%20!H;%202-3%20!S;%208-10%20HCP%20|mb|P|mb|4S|an|4+%20!H;%206+%20!S;%2016+%20HCP;%2017-18%20total%20points|mb|P|mb|P|mb|P|pc|C7|pc|C4|pc|C2|pc|CK|pc|H4|pc|H5|pc|H2|pc|H8|pc|DK|pc|DA|pc|D3|pc|D5|pc|H7|pc|HJ|pc|H6|pc|H3|pc|D2|pc|D7|pc|D4|pc|DQ|pc|SA|pc|S6|pc|S2|pc|S5|pc|SK|pc|S7|pc|S3|pc|D8|pc|H9|pc|HQ|pc|SJ|pc|HT|pc|CA|pc|C3|pc|HK|pc|CT|mc|10|
">
Board 7</a><br />Both sides vulnerable</p>
<table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="width: 300px;"><tbody><tr><td align="center" width="100%">♠ A K 10 9 8 4 <span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> K 9 7 4 <span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> A Q ♣ K </td></tr></tbody></table>
<p>
I bid one spade; partner responds with one notrump.</p><p>Despite my 19 HCP, this hand
hardly merits forcing to game. I have five spade tricks, one heart trick (half a trick for the king and half for the fourth heart), and one and a half tricks in diamonds. Seven and a half tricks in total plus a little for the club king. One generally needs eight and a half or nine to drive to game after a one-level
response.
</p><p>
If I'm not going to drive to game, should I bid
three spades or two hearts? Three spades has the advantage of getting my
values across. Two hearts has the advantage of possibly finding a heart fit. If my heart suit were a minor, we might debate whether bidding three spades or showing minor will work out better. But we could easily belong in four hearts, so I don't want to risk missing a heart fit.
</p><p>
I bid two hearts, and partner corrects to two spades. My rule of thumb when partner shows a preference to my six-card suit is to bid one less than
I would have bid had partner raised. If I would have invited game after a raise, I pass. If I would have bid game, I raise to three. With this hand,
I would have bid four spades over a raise. So, by my rule, I should bid three spades now.
</p><p>
I'm inclined to override my rule however. After all, I would bid three spades even if my club king were the deuce. While I can't count the club king at full value, it's hardly worthless. To make the same bid with or without it feels wrong. Besides, stopping short of game with 19 HCP opposite a response is a scary prospect. Yes, I risked that when I bid only two hearts. But that was before I knew we had a fit. I'm not entirely confident with choosing four spades. But even if I'm
wrong, I'm sure I'll have plenty of company.</p><p>
I bid four spades. Everyone passes, and LHO leads the seven of clubs.
</p>
<div align="center"><table><tbody>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">NORTH<br />
<i>Robot</i><br />
♠ J 3 2<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> 6 2<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> 9 7 5<br />
♣ A 8 6 5 4<br />
<br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">SOUTH<br />
<i>Phillip</i><br />
♠ A K 10 9 8 4<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> K 9 7 4<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> A Q<br />
♣ K<br />
<br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
</tbody></table></div>
<table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="width: 300px;">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td align="direction in globals.directions:left" width="25%"><b>West</b></td>
<td align="direction in globals.directions:left" width="25%"><b>North</b></td>
<td align="direction in globals.directions:left" width="25%"><b>East</b></td>
<td align="direction in globals.directions:left" width="25%"><b>South</b></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="25%"><i>Robot</i></td>
<td align="left" width="25%"><i>Robot</i></td>
<td align="left" width="25%"><i>Robot</i></td>
<td align="left" width="25%"><i>Phillip</i></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="25%"> </td>
<td align="left" width="25%"> </td>
<td align="left" width="25%"> </td>
<td align="left" width="25%">1 ♠</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="25%">Pass</td>
<td align="left" width="25%">1 NT</td>
<td align="left" width="25%">Pass</td>
<td align="left" width="25%">2 <span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="25%">Pass</td>
<td align="left" width="25%">2 ♠</td>
<td align="left" width="25%">Pass</td>
<td align="left" width="25%">4 ♠</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="25%">(All pass)</td>
<td align="left" width="25%"> </td>
<td align="left" width="25%"> </td>
<td align="left" width="25%"> </td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<p>
My choice between three spades and four probably didn't matter. With three spades and an ace, partner should raise to four anyway. Personally, I don't care for his one notrump response. I see nothing wrong with raising one spade to two.</p><p>
I have a shortage of dummy entries. I'd like to lead up to the heart king and take the diamond finesse, but it's hard to see how I can do both. My only convenient entry to dummy is with a heart ruff, so I have no
easy way to lead up to the heart king. I suppose I could win this trick in dummy, wasting my club king. But that's giving up a sure club trick for a potential heart trick. That doesn't seem like a fair trade.
</p><p>
Suppose I cash a high trump and drop the spade queen. Now I can reach dummy with the spade jack and lead a heart. But the opponents can then play a third spade and stop my ruff. Again, I'm giving up a sure trick
for a potential one. I might as well simply lead hearts out of my hand.
</p><p>
Since I intend to lose two heart tricks, I have to avoid either the spade loser or the diamond loser. Let's step through the play to see how that works.
</p><p>
I'll win the club in my hand and duck a heart. East will win and play a trump. I win and play another heart. If East is out of trumps, the opponents can't play a second trump, so I can score two heart ruffs. I can then pitch the diamond queen on the club ace, losing only two hearts and a trump.</p><p>
If East wins the second heart and plays another trump, I'll hop. If the queen drops, I have ten tricks: six spades, a heart ruff, two clubs, and a diamond. If West shows out, I can ruff a heart. If the ace falls, the heart king is my tenth trick. If it doesn't, I can pitch my heart king on the club ace and try a diamond finesse.
</p><p>
Is there anything to gain by cashing a trump before I embark on this plan? Not that I see. I've already noted that I can't exploit dropping a stiff queen. So all cashing a trump does is increase the possibility
the opponents can play two more rounds, depriving me of my heart ruff.
</p><p>
I play a low club from dummy, East plays the deuce, and I win with the king. I play the heart four--five--deuce--eight. East surprises me by switching to the diamond
king. </p><p>The diamond king? What's that all about? I suppose he is catering to my having a stiff queen. He doesn't want to set up a ruffing finesse against his king. If he thinks his partner might have the diamond ace, that suggests the heart ace is on my left. If East held it, he probably would not expect his partner to hold the diamond ace. There's not much I can do with that information. But it's good practice to draw whatever inferences you gain when something weird happens. Unusually plays can be revealing.</p><p>I win with the diamond ace; West follows with the three. I play a second heart. Seven--jack--six--three. West continues with the diamond deuce. East follows with the four. I win and cash the ace and king of spades.</p><p>East pitches the diamond eight on the second spade. I ruff a heart,
pitch my last heart on the club ace, and concede a trump. Making four.</p>
<div align="center"><table><tbody>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">NORTH<br />
<i>Robot</i><br />
♠ J 3 2<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> 6 2<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> 9 7 5<br />
♣ A 8 6 5 4<br />
<br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125">WEST<br />
<i>Robot</i><br />
♠ Q 7 6<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> Q J 5<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> J 10 3 2<br />
♣ Q 10 7<br />
<br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">EAST<br />
<i>Robot</i><br />
♠ 5<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> A 10 8 3<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> K 8 6 4<br />
♣ J 9 3 2<br />
<br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">SOUTH<br />
<i>Phillip</i><br />
♠ A K 10 9 8 4<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> K 9 7 4<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> A Q<br />
♣ K<br />
</td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
</tbody></table></div>
<p>
Plus 620 is worth 86%. Lots of declarers cashed the ace and king of spades before attacking hearts. Drawing trump prematurely is a common mistake in these daylong tournaments. The declarers draw trump first, then look around for what to do next. They seem to be the victims of indoctrination.</p><p>I see I was wrong about the heart ace. Oh, well. It was only a inference, not a sure thing. But it's just as well it didn't matter. If I had needed to place the heart ace, I would have gotten it wrong.</p><p>Incidentally, look at that opening lead! With two unbid suits, West chose to lead from Q107 rather than from J1032. This is why I'm hesitant to draw inferences from
the robots' opening leads. That choice makes no sense to me.
</p>Phillip Martinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12686740850642509457noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6167918454701652348.post-39239152019408828532023-09-17T12:57:00.000-04:002023-09-17T12:57:37.006-04:00Free Weekly Instant Tournament - September 15 - Board 5
<p style="font-weight: bold; text-align: left;">
<a href="https://www.bridgebase.com/tools/handviewer.html?lin=st||pn|PSMartin,~~M11906fa,~~M11960f4,~~M11972wm|md|3SKT3HAKJ4DAKCQJ42,SQ652HT875DQT32CA,SA87HQ92DJ9875C85,SJ94H63D64CKT9763|sv|n|rh||ah|Board%205|mb|P|mb|P|mb|2N|an|Two%20NT%20opener.%20Could%20have%205M.%20--%202-5%20!C;%202-5%20!D;%202-5%20!H;%202-5%20!S;%2020-2|mb|P|mb|3N|an|2-5%20!C;%202-5%20!D;%202-4%20!H;%202-4%20!S;%205-10%20HCP%20|mb|P|mb|P|mb|P|pc|H5|pc|H9|pc|H3|pc|H4|pc|D5|pc|D4|pc|DK|pc|D3|pc|DA|pc|D2|pc|D7|pc|D6|pc|HJ|pc|H7|pc|HQ|pc|H6|pc|C5|pc|C7|pc|CJ|pc|CA|pc|HT|pc|H2|pc|C3|pc|HK|pc|HA|pc|H8|pc|D8|pc|C6|pc|S3|pc|S2|pc|SA|pc|S4|pc|C8|pc|CK|pc|C2|pc|DT|pc|S9|pc|SK|pc|S6|pc|S7|pc|CQ|pc|S5|pc|S8|pc|C9|pc|C4|pc|DQ|pc|D9|pc|CT|pc|SJ|pc|ST|pc|SQ|pc|DJ|
">
Board 5</a><br />Our side vulnerable</p>
<table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="width: 300px;"><tbody><tr><td align="center" width="100%">♠ K 10 3 <span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> A K J 4 <span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> A K ♣ Q J 4 2 </td></tr></tbody></table>
<p>
Two passes to me. I open with two notrump and partner raises to three. LHO leads the five of hearts.</p>
<div align="center"><table><tbody>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">NORTH<br />
<i>Robot</i><br />
♠ A 8 7<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> Q 9 2<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> J 9 8 7 5<br />
♣ 8 5<br />
<br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">SOUTH<br />
<i>Phillip</i><br />
♠ K 10 3<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> A K J 4<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> A K<br />
♣ Q J 4 2<br />
<br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
</tbody></table></div>
<table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="width: 300px;">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td align="direction in globals.directions:left" width="25%"><b>West</b></td>
<td align="direction in globals.directions:left" width="25%"><b>North</b></td>
<td align="direction in globals.directions:left" width="25%"><b>East</b></td>
<td align="direction in globals.directions:left" width="25%"><b>South</b></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="25%"><i>Robot</i></td>
<td align="left" width="25%"><i>Robot</i></td>
<td align="left" width="25%"><i>Robot</i></td>
<td align="left" width="25%"><i>Phillip</i></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="25%"> </td>
<td align="left" width="25%">Pass</td>
<td align="left" width="25%">Pass</td>
<td align="left" width="25%">2 NT</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="25%">Pass</td>
<td align="left" width="25%">3 NT</td>
<td align="left" width="25%">(All pass)</td>
<td align="left" width="25%"> </td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<p>
I have eight cashing tricks. One possibility for a ninth is to find at least one club honor onside, a seventy-five percent chance.</p><p>
Another possibility is to go after diamond tricks. I will need to find diamonds three-three or to drop the queen
or ten in two rounds. My gut instinct says that's less than 75%. But the fact that this line yields two tricks instead of one makes it more attractive than playing clubs even if it is somewhat less likely to work.<br /><br />Do I have time to develop a long diamond even if someone has queen-ten fourth? I cash the ace king, lead a heart to the queen, and play a diamond. No. I have only one dummy entry left, so I can't set up the last diamond and get back to cash it.</p><p>Maybe I can combine my chances, though. I can cash the ace and king of diamonds. If an honor drops, I set up diamonds. If it doesn't, I can consider switching to clubs. I'll still have two dummy entries to lead clubs twice.</p><p>
I might as well start by inserting the heart nine. I don't see how that can hurt, and it will give me some clue about the lie of the heart suit. I play the nine, East
plays the three, and I play low. West has apparently led from ten third or fourth unless East is playing a deep game.</p><p>
I lead a diamond to the king. (The ace would suggest the king. The king is more ambiguous.) East plays the four; West, the three. The deuce is still out.
On the ace of diamonds, West plays the deuce; East, the six. One opponent is giving honest count; the other isn't. Against humans, I would assume whoever doesn't have the queen is being honest in case his partner has the ace and needs to hold up. The player with the queen probably sees no reason to give honest count. </p><p>In fact, I can state that more strongly. The hand with the queen <i>must </i>give false count. Any time one hand must give correct count in case his partner needs it, the other hand must give false count. Since declarer knows one hand can't afford to falsecard, he can trust the carding if the defenders' signals are consistent. But if one hand gives correct count and the other gives false count, declarer has no way to know which defender to trust.</p><p>These inferences aren't
valid against robots, however. They don't think about such things. Their carding when declarer leads a suit appears to be random.</p><p>
Since I didn't see the ten or the nine, should I switch plans and play on clubs? The two remaining diamonds are roughly 50% to split. (East can have queen-ten, West can have queen-ten, or they could be evenly split two ways. So they split in two cases out of four.) The club play works 75% of the time, so it is by far the better choice.</p><p>I play the jack of hearts to dummy's queen. West plays the seven; East, the six. Now five of clubs--seven--jack--ace.
West continues with the heart ten. I win in my hand as East discards the club three. If East has the king, he probably has king fifth. He wouldn't pitch from king fourth, handing me a long club trick.</p><p>
I cash the last heart and pitch a diamond from dummy. East pitches another club, the six. This isn't looking good. He wouldn't pitch two clubs from king fifth, so it looks as if the club king is offside. Maybe I can cash the
ace and king of spades and toss West in to force a club lead. West would need to be 4-4-2-3 with the queen-jack of spades. Or maybe 3-4-3-3 with queen-jack of spades and the diamond queen. Neither seems likely. If East has nothing in spades, he might have pitched spades instead of clubs. Maybe West has ace-king tight of clubs and I can duck the king out.
</p><p>
I'll worry about that after I play a club from dummy. I play a low spade to the ace. West plays the deuce; East, the four. West might have split from queen-jack of spades, so I doubt he has both honors. Endplaying him is out. </p><p>I play the eight
of clubs from dummy, not entirely sure yet whether I'm going to duck it or not. East solves my problem by hopping with the king, and West pitches the ten of diamonds. I see. King <i>sixth</i> of clubs on my right. That's why he could afford to pitch two of them. Making three.
</p>
<div align="center"><table><tbody>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">NORTH<br />
<i>Robot</i><br />
♠ A 8 7<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> Q 9 2<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> J 9 8 7 5<br />
♣ 8 5<br />
<br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125">WEST<br />
<i>Robot</i><br />
♠ Q 6 5 2<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> 10 8 7 5<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> Q 10 3 2<br />
♣ A<br />
<br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">EAST<br />
<i>Robot</i><br />
♠ J 9 4<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> 6 3<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> 6 4<br />
♣ K 10 9 7 6 3<br />
<br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
<td align="left" width="125">SOUTH<br />
<i>Phillip</i><br />
♠ K 10 3<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♥</span> A K J 4<br />
<span style="color: #c01616;">♦</span> A K<br />
♣ Q J 4 2<br />
</td>
<td align="left" width="125"><br /></td>
</tr>
</tbody></table></div>
<p>
Plus 400 is worth an astounding 96%. Why?</p><p>
It turns out the field is persisting in diamonds even after an honor fails to drop, taking their 50% line instead of their 75% line. But hold on. Maybe the field is right. In calculating the odds, I completely forgot to factor in that the diamond play yields <i>two </i>tricks if it works. I did say that fact made the diamond play "more attractive than playing clubs even if it is somewhat less likely to work." But I never quantified that "somewhat."</p><p>Half the time, the diamond play does a trick better than the club play. When does the club play do better? We need both the club play to work (75%) and the diamond play to fail (50%). So the club play is better only 37.5% of the time. </p><p>Why did I have this blind spot? I think once I calculated the diamond play worked only half the time, I instinctively rejected it. One doesn't usually risk one's contract for an overtrick on a coin toss. But that's because the alternative is usually <i>ensuring </i>your contract. When the alternative is only a 75% play anyway, a coin toss is sufficient. I made the right play at IMPs but the wrong play at matchpoints. .</p>Phillip Martinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12686740850642509457noreply@blogger.com4