BBO Daylong Tournament 1 - Jun 1, 2021 - Board 4

Board 4
Both sides vulnerable

♠ A K 6 4  ♥ K  ♦ J 8 4 3  ♣ K J 9 8

Two passes to one heart on my right. I double, partner bids two spades, and RHO passes. I have fifteen support points for spades (counting the heart king as worthless), and partner's two-spade bid, according to the tool tip, shows 9-12. That's means my hand is worth an invitation. 

Does that look right? What do I need for game? Queen fifth of spades, ace doubleton of diamonds, queen of clubs? That's a minimum two spade bid, and that looks like a fine game. If he has only four spades, however, the hand could prove awkward. To come to ten tricks, we will probably need to ruff two hearts in my hand or two diamonds in partner's hand. In an eight-card fit, managing those ruffs and still having the communication to draw the last trump and cash my club winners will not be easy. So I'm certainly not worth four spades. Even three might be too high opposite a four-card spade suit. But I have to invite. Any time he has five spades, game rates to have a shot. 

I bid three spades. Partner passes.

	NORTH Phillip ♠ A K 6 4 ♥ K ♦ J 8 4 3 ♣ K J 9 8
	SOUTH Robot ♠ Q J 9 3 ♥ 9 7 5 2 ♦ A 9 7 ♣ Q 10

West	North	East	South
Robot	Phillip	Robot	Robot
		Pass	Pass
1 ♥	Double	Pass	2 ♠
Pass	3 ♠	(All pass)

West leads the heart queen--king--ace--deuce. There are only 16 HCP missing. If East has the heart ace, West should have everything else.

Partner had only four spades, but fortunately he has the club ten, which solidifies the suit. I have four spade trucks, three club tricks, and the diamond ace. One heart ruff is all I need to come to nine tricks. Or is it? I have no entry to dummy's clubs outside the trump suit. So if trumps are four-one, I can't both ruff a heart and run the clubs. Maybe I should try for two hearts ruffs in dummy? In that case, two club tricks are enough. If fact, if I can score six trump tricks, one club trick is enough. I may wind up playing the hand on a crossruff, ruffing dummy's club winners.

I can't formulate a more specific plan until I see how the defense proceeds. At trick two, East shifts to the deuce of diamonds. I play the seven, and West wins with the queen. He now shifts to the seven of spades. 

Paradoxically, leading trumps is often the wrong defense if it appears declarer may embark on a crossruff.  What it frequently does is pickle partner's trumps spots, making declarer's trumps high and making the crossruff easier. Unless you can lead enough rounds of trumps actually to stop ruffs, you are better off staying away from the trump suit. 

East plays the spade ten, and I win with the queen (leaving open the possibility from West's perspective that East has the jack). I now have two high trumps and one low trump in each hand. The outstanding spades are 852. 

I'm still not sure whether to crossruff or try to keep control and run clubs. But either line requires me to knock out the club ace, so I might as well do that now. I lead the queen of clubs. West plays the four; East, the five. 

It's a bit surprising West ducked this, since he doesn't know I have the ten. I suspect he has ace fourth and is ducking in the hope his partner has a doubleton. If so, he can give him a ruff if I continue the suit. In any event, I doubt very much he ducked with ace doubleton. That means I don't have to worry about the third round of clubs being ruffed on my left, which was the danger in going after a crossruff.

I play the ten of clubs--ace--nine--seven. West continues with the club deuce, and East follows with the six. West was indeed aiming to give his partner a club ruff. I pitch the nine of diamonds, reaching this position:

	NORTH Phillip ♠ A K 6 ♥ -- ♦ J 8 4 ♣ K
	SOUTH Robot ♠ J 9 3 ♥ 9 7 5 ♦ A ♣ --

If I can score the diamond ace and six trump tricks, I make the rest for an overtrick. I lead a diamond to my ace. East plays the six; West the ten. I know West has the diamond queen left. So He began with at least one spade, three diamonds, and three clubs. That leaves him with at most six hearts, so East must have a heart left. That means I can afford to ruff a heart small. Then I can play a diamond. If East follows, I ruff with the three, knowing West must follow with the queen, and finish with a high crossruff. What if East ruffs in to uppercut me? If he ruffs in with the five, I overruff with the nine. The missing trumps are now the eight and deuce. If East has both of them, I have the jack and three in my hand as a tenace over them. If West has a trump left, it doesn't matter. He still has a diamond, so can't overruff. There is no way the opponents can prevent me from scoring the last four tricks on a crossruff. 

I ruff a heart in dummy and play a diamond. East follows. I ruff small and claim.

	NORTH Phillip ♠ A K 6 4 ♥ K ♦ J 8 4 3 ♣ K J 9 8
WEST Robot ♠ 7 ♥ Q J 10 8 3 ♦ K Q 10 ♣ A 4 3 2		EAST Robot ♠ 10 8 5 2 ♥ A 6 4 ♦ 6 5 2 ♣ 7 6 5
	SOUTH Robot ♠ Q J 9 3 ♥ 9 7 5 2 ♦ A 9 7 ♣ Q 10

86% for plus 170, I was actually the only one to play three spades. On the same auction, 11 pairs bid four spades (most of them going down) and ten passed two spades. That's tells me my judgment was probably right. When half the field drives to game and the other half doesn't even show interest, the wisdom of crowds suggests the hand is probably worth an invitation.

The point about staying off the trump suit when declarer threatens a crossruff is worth noting. In this case, it probably didn't matter, but it did give me less to think about. I could rest easier once the spade ten was no longer a threat. 

An initial trump lead, however, would have been a different matter. Now East can continue with a second trump when he is in with the heart ace and hold me to nine tricks. Singleton trump leads have a bad name. But I have noticed they are often right against a four-four fit. I would lead a trump from West's hand with softer clubs. But with A432, it's not so clear that a crossruff is in the works. Tapping dummy to kill entries to the club suit may be a better plan, so I agree with West's lead.

BBO Daylong Tournament 1 - Jun 1, 2021 - Board 3

Board 3
Their side vulnerable

♠ Q 9  ♥ A J 10 3  ♦ K 5 2  ♣ A Q 3 2

I open one notrump in first seat. Partner transfers to spades and bids three notrump, which I pass. West leads the four of diamonds

	NORTH Robot ♠ K 10 6 4 3 ♥ K Q 4 ♦ A 7 ♣ 10 8 6
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ Q 9 ♥ A J 10 3 ♦ K 5 2 ♣ A Q 3 2

West	North	East	South
Robot	Robot	Robot	Phillip
			1 NT
Pass	2 ♥	Pass	2 ♠
Pass	3 NT	(All pass)

The diamond three is missing. So the lead could be fourth best from a five-card suit or lowest from a three- or four-card suit. Less likely (though not so unlikely as against humans), it could be from shortness.

I have seven top tricks. I can try to develop two more in spades with the club finesse in reserve if that fails. The percentage play in spades is to lead a spade to the nine. If spades are three-three, it's a toss-up which hand to finesse for the jack. If the suit is four-two, however, you must hope for jack doubleton on your right.

But the threat of losing three diamonds tricks and two spade tricks means the percentage play in spades isn't the only consideration. I must also worry about tempo. I would like to lose the lead only once, or, failing that, lose the lead the second time to the hand with only three diamonds. At this point, that hand is more likely to be East. If I lead a spade to queen. I may be able to finesse West for the spade jack later, not caring whether the finesse wins or loses. 

There are other advantages to this line as well. If I lead a spade to the nine and it loses to the jack, I still have only seven tricks. If I lead a spade to the queen, I'll have eight. Once I have eight tricks in the bag, I have a variety of ways to go after trick nine. I can finesse the spade. I can finesse the club. Or I can try for some kind of end play. It all depends on my read of the hand. As Reese once pointed out, having eight cashing tricks in three notrump leaves you in a strong position. There is almost always some way to find a ninth.

I play the diamond ace, East plays the six, and I play the five. (Better than the deuce, which might clarify the diamond count for East.) I still haven't seen the three.

I lead the spade three--deuce--queen--ace. With some holdings, West might have ducked to retain his entry. I need to keep that in mind in case I have to guess the end position. But I must also keep in mind that the robots will duck less often than human experts. They won't duck if it might lose double dummy (for example, with ace-empty third), whereas a human expert might, assuming that you are unlikely to continue with a low spade to the king.

West continues with the nine of diamonds and East plays the ten. It's still not 100% clear who, if anyone, has five diamonds. The four might have been from a five-card suit, or it might also have been lowest from 984. Although that would give East QJ1063, and he might have played the queen at trick one from that holding. In any event, I need to duck this. If they continue diamonds, I'll make my final assessment of who is more likely to have five. If I think it's West, I can safely finesse in spades. If I think it's East, I may decide to play on clubs

I duck. East continues with the diamond jack. I win with the king, and West plays the queen. The eight was the right play, silly robot. I know you didn't block the suit by continuing the nine from Q94. So I now know that if anyone has five diamonds, it's you. That means it's safe for me to take the spade finesse.

I pitch the club six from dummy and lead the nine of spades--seven--four--eight. I play a heart to dummy and cash the spade king. Everyone follows, and I claim.

	NORTH Robot ♠ K 10 6 4 3 ♥ K Q 4 ♦ A 7 ♣ 10 8 6
WEST Robot ♠ A J 7 ♥ 9 8 5 ♦ Q 9 8 4 3 ♣ J 5		EAST Robot ♠ 8 5 2 ♥ 7 6 2 ♦ J 10 6 ♣ K 9 7 4
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ Q 9 ♥ A J 10 3 ♦ K 5 2 ♣ A Q 3 2

Plus 660 is worth 78%. Some went down by leading a spade to the nine at trick two. We've already discussed why that line is wrong. Others held themselves to four by ducking the first diamond in both hands. Since the four can't be from a six-card suit, there is no reason to do that. Those who did duck the first round got a club shift from East at trick two. When they ducked this to West's jack, they could no longer score eleven tricks. 

One person made six. Obviously you can. Knock out the spade ace as I did, then win the the second diamond, run the spades, and take a club finesse at the end. I have to admit I didn't even consider that line. But if I had, I would have rejected it. Risking the contract in hope of finding a three-three break with two finesses working doesn't seem like a good idea. I checked the hand records to see if declarer had reason to believe this was going to work. It turns out he won the opening diamond lead with the king in his hand. After that, the play was perfectly reasonable. Having lost the option to duck the second diamond, you sort of fall into making six.

BBO Daylong Tournament 1 - Jun 1, 2021 - Board 2

Board 2
Our side vulnerable

♠ A K 10 9 2  ♥ A 4  ♦ 3  ♣ K Q J 8 5

I open one spade, and partner bids one notrump. I'm sure some will bid three clubs with this hand, but it's not worth a game force. I bid two clubs. Partner bids two notrump.

We could certainly have a club slam. Club ace, heart king, spade queen. That leaves two or three HCP for wastage in diamonds. If three clubs were forcing, I would bid it. But it isn't. Three hearts would show a three-card suit, since partner could still have five hearts. So the only way to investigate slam is to bid four clubs. I would do so if we had some way to stop in four notrump. But the robots play most four notrump calls as Blackwood. If I bid four clubs, the only games available to us will be four spades or five clubs.

In most slam decisions, half a board is at stake. If you do the right thing, you gain half a matchpoint from every other pair. If you do the wrong thing, you lose half a matchpoint to every other pair--regardless of what the other pairs do. So it's worth bidding a slam if it is at least 50% to succeed. In this case, however, once we bid past three notrump, the odds might favor going on to slam even if it rates to be poor. 

Let's say we judge that a third of the field will play three notrump, and let's say we judge it will make at least four. The rest of the field plays either five or six clubs. Where do I stand if I bid four clubs and partner raises to five? If I pass and I'm right, I gain a half a matchpoint from two thirds of the field, in other words, one third of a board, If I go on to six and I'm right, I gain a half a matchpoint from two thirds of the field and a full matchpoint from the third that stopped in three notrump, which comes to two thirds of a board. In other words, bidding slam is odds on so long I think I have one chance in three of making it. 

If I didn't think I had one chance in three of making slam, I wouldn't be trying for it in the first place. So as a practical matter, unless we manage to stop in four spades, bidding four clubs is tantamount to driving to slam. Am I willing to do that? Hardly. This hand is worth a slam invitation, but it's not worth a slam drive. Since, essentially, I have no way to invite, I think the percentage action is to bid three notrump.

I do so, and everyone passes.West leads the diamond six. East takes his ace and I claim. 

	NORTH Phillip ♠ A K 10 9 2 ♥ A 4 ♦ 3 ♣ K Q J 8 5
WEST Robot ♠ J 7 5 4 ♥ Q 10 7 ♦ 9 8 6 ♣ 10 6 2		EAST Robot ♠ Q 8 3 ♥ K J 9 5 3 ♦ A 7 4 2 ♣ 9
	SOUTH Robot ♠ 6 ♥ 8 6 2 ♦ K Q J 10 5 ♣ A 7 4 3

West	North	East	South
Robot	Phillip	Robot	Robot
Pass	1 ♠	Pass	1 NT
Pass	2 ♣	Pass	2 NT
Pass	3 NT	(All pass)

Six clubs would go down on a heart lead, but then so would three notrump. Even looking at partner's hand, I"m not sure what the right contract is at matchpoints.

It turns out every one who bid slam made it. Still, plus 690 is worth 65%, because quite a few pairs reached five clubs on auctions like

1 ♠	1 NT
3 ♣	4 ♣
5 ♣

If you're going to jump shift, you should at least follow through and bid four hearts when partner raises. That shouldn't be a cue-bid. When you have bid two suits and make a slam try by bidding a third, it should show a fragment and suggest shortness in the fourth suit. Sorting out the control situation is usually less important than judging if the hands fit well. Yes, if you have some freakish hand with a heart void and two small diamonds, you would rather be playing that four hearts is a cue-bid and denies a diamond control. But such hands come up rarely and your methods shouldn't cater to them. Even if you bid four hearts, however, you won't--or shouldn't--reach slam. With KQJTx of diamonds, partner won't be excited by your four-heart bid and will simply bid five clubs. 

Note that when deciding whether to raise five clubs to six in this auction, you do not face the same considerations I speculated about in my auction. You have (unwisely in my opinion) forced to game. Partner has shown nothing more than a minimum response. There is no reason to believe three notrump is making or that the field will be there. Some pairs might even be playing two clubs. So choosing to pass five club is perfectly reasonable.

Six pairs did reach six clubs, but none on any kind of intelligent auction. They overbid with three clubs on the second round, then overbid again by driving to slam when partner raised. For all they knew, five clubs was going down. In short, no one had a good auction, including me. Everyone guessed; some guessed better than others. It's a difficult hand in standard methods. 

For what it's worth, nine out of 28 pairs were in three notrump, so my estimate of one third was pretty close. What I didn't anticipate (although perhaps I should have) was that two pairs played three clubs. Presumably they forgot to check whether their three-club rebid over two notrump was forcing or not. 

BBO Daylong Tournament 1 - Jun 1, 2021 - Board 1

Board 1
Neither vulnerable

On to the next tournament.

♠ A 4  ♥ Q J 10  ♦ 8 6 4  ♣ K Q 9 8 7

Partner passes, and RHO opens one diamond. Three small diamonds is a danger signal and argues for passing. But I do have a decent suit, and a two-club overcall takes away the whole one-level. It could work out badly, but I bid two clubs. LHO bids two spades, and RHO bids two notrump. LHO bids three spades, and RHO raises to game. Partner leads the deuce of clubs

	NORTH Robot ♠ 10 8 ♥ 8 7 6 ♦ A K J 5 3 ♣ A 10 6
		EAST Phillip ♠ A 4 ♥ Q J 10 ♦ 8 6 4 ♣ K Q 9 8 7

West	North	East	South
Robot	Robot	Phillip	Robot
Pass	1 ♦	2 ♣	2 ♠
Pass	2 NT	Pass	3 ♠
Pass	4 ♠	(All pass)

Declarer plays low from dummy. It doesn't appear there is much to this deal. I just win the club and shift to a heart. We get one club trick and whatever heart and spade tricks we have coming to us. Is any other defense conceivable? Could partner have a stiff diamond? That would give declarer a 6-1-4-2 shape, leaving partner with ace-sixth or king-sixth of hearts. That doesn't seem likely. And even if that were the case, declarer wouldn't be ducking this trick. So a heart shift it is. I play the club queen and declarer follows with the jack. Now queen of hearts--ace--five--six.

Declarer continues with the deuce of spades to the seven and eight. I take my ace and lead the jack of hearts--king-- deuce--seven. Not sure what partner's echo was all about. I would play partner's five as attitude myself, saying, "You are on the right track. If you are contemplating any other defense, such as playing me for a singleton club, it isn't going to work." But I'm sure that's not what partner meant. Perhaps he was giving count?

Declarer plays the queen of spades to partner's king, and partner leads the heart three to my ten. It holds. Declarer has the rest. Down one.

	NORTH Robot ♠ 10 8 ♥ 8 7 6 ♦ A K J 5 3 ♣ A 10 6
WEST Robot ♠ K 7 5 ♥ 5 4 3 2 ♦ Q 10 7 ♣ 5 4 2		EAST Phillip ♠ A 4 ♥ Q J 10 ♦ 8 6 4 ♣ K Q 9 8 7
	SOUTH Robot ♠ Q J 9 6 3 2 ♥ A K 9 ♦ 9 2 ♣ J 3

Plus 50 is worth 63%. It turns out the overcall, getting partner off to a club lead, was critical. Four spades made at those tables where my hand passed over one diamond.

Declarer could have made this by finessing in diamonds and pitching his heart, and at IMPs I presume he would do so. Should he have done so at matchpoints? The finesse gains if it works and diamonds are three-three. (It gains in other rare cases as well, such as when I have 

♠ A K  ♥ Q J x x  ♦ x x  ♣ K Q x x x.

But we'll ignore such cases for now and factor them back in if the decision is close.) The finesse loses if it fails and diamonds are not three-three. (If they are, he breaks even by taking his heart pitch.) If we assume the finesse is 50-50, the finesse criteria cancel out. So, on a comparative basis, the finesse is right if diamonds are three-three and wrong if it isn't. If declarer judges a fair percentage of the field is in game and is getting a club lead, then settling for down one was the percentage play. 

But hold on. Why was declarer even in this position? There is no reason to duck the club. Just go up with the ace and start trumps. The defense has only two trump entries, so they can't set up the heart trick and cash it in time. You can decide in the end position whether to risk the diamond finesse or not. In any event, now all you need is the finesse--or possibly a squeeze. You don't need a three-three diamond break as well.

There is one reason to duck the first trick. It gives you the option of hooking the club ten for a pitch. While it is quite unlikely I would have bid two clubs with queen fifth, perhaps he would have tried this if I had played the club king at trick one.

This time it would have made no difference, but the club queen was still an extremely lazy play. There is nothing for the defense to do except continue hearts whenever we get in. So partner can't possibly care whether I have two club honors or not. If the club jack were in dummy, the falsecard would be trivial (and therefore less convincing). With the jack in declarer's hand, the potential gain from falsecarding doesn't jump out at you. But it needn't. Any time you see that a false card can't cost, you should make it; it's not necessary to see how it might gain. My first thought when dummy hit was, "It doesn't appear there is much to this deal." That's often a dangerous thought. Here, it lulled be into carelessness.

Lowenthal was almost always alert to such situations. We once defended a four spade contract where John had opened one heart and I had shown four-card support. I led a heart, dummy hit with Jxx, and John had AKQxx. Since partner will soon know what you have, any decent defender would do what he could to conceal his holding from declarer, making it more difficult for him to place the remaining honors. Most would try a wimpy solution, like winning with the king and continuing with the ace. But a good declarer knows you might do this, so he won't pay much attention. John, however, was no wimp. He won with the ace and continued with a low one. I held my breath. Might declarer have some loser he has no way to avoid? If so, he might pitch it, figuring it can't hurt. Declarer thought this over a while, then ruffed and proceeded to misplace a critical card and go down. 

Had John somehow surmised that declarer had no unavoidable loser to pitch? I thought about the problem from his point of view at trick one and didn't see how he could have. 

"That was a risky play," I said. 

"If it were riskless," said John, "it wouldn't work."

BBO Daylong Tournament 1 - Apr 7, 2021 - Board 8

Board 8
Neither vulnerable

♠ 6 5 2  ♥ A Q 9 3  ♦ K Q 8  ♣ A K 3

Three passes to me. I open one club, partner bids one spade, and I bid two notrump. Partner bids three clubs, natural and forcing. With such good red-suit holdings, I see no reason to suggest a spade contract. I bid three notrump, which ends the auction.

	NORTH Robot ♠ K J 10 8 ♥ K J ♦ 10 4 ♣ 9 8 7 6 4
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ 6 5 2 ♥ A Q 9 3 ♦ K Q 8 ♣ A K 3

West	North	East	South
Robot	Robot	Robot	Phillip
Pass	Pass	Pass	1 ♣
Pass	1 ♠	Pass	2 NT
Pass	3 ♣	Pass	3 NT
(All pass)

West leads the four of hearts. I have six top tricks and a diamond trick for seven. I need to develop two more. If the diamond ace is offside, the defense may be able to establish enough tricks to beat me once I give up the lead, so I would like to develop my two tricks without having to give up the lead twice. One possibility is to play for three-two clubs. Another is to play for the spade queen onside. 

Three-two clubs is more likely, but the heart blockage makes going after clubs awkward. Say I play three rounds of clubs and they knock out my diamond stopper. I now have nine tricks, but, unless the heart ten drops in three rounds, I have no way to take them. In fact, even if the diamond ace is onside, I could go down. Say they win the club and play ace and a diamond. I now have ten tricks, but it's not clear I can take even nine. I can't use the heart entry to get to dummy's clubs, else I have no way to get back to my hand. I have to try to reach dummy with a spade. If I misguess the suit, they can set up their diamonds.

Playing on spades is more promising. Say I play a club to my hand and a spade to the ten. If it loses to the ace, I have four hearts, two spades (assuming the East isn't being tricky with the ace-queen), two clubs, and a diamond. If the spade finesse loses to the queen, I will probably need to find the diamond ace onside. But if it is, I'm in good shape. I have four hearts, one spade, two clubs, two diamonds, and no entry problems. I'm not necessarily home-free, however. If they can set up two club tricks, they might be able to take five tricks before I can take nine.

What if I lead a spade to the ten and it holds? If I judge the spade queen is onside, I can unblock the hearts, play a club to my hand, and play a spade to the jack: four hearts, two spades, a diamond, and two clubs.

If I judge RHO might duck with the spade queen (or win with the ace holding ace-queen), this deal becomes more difficult. One possibility would be to forget the second spade finesse and go after clubs. Now that I have a spade trick, I will need only three heart tricks, so I can afford to overtake dummy's heart jack if necessary.

The bots aren't up to making deceptive plays for the purpose of deception, but they might stumble into them. If they think it makes no difference what they do, they might choose the deceptive play at random among apparently irrelevant choices. So, while they are less likely to make deceptive plays than an expert, they are probably more likely to make them than an average player, since they have no pre-conceptions about what's normal. In any event, there is no need to worry about that yet. If the spade ten holds or if it loses to the ace, I'll think about what to do then. It's clear attacking spades offers better chances than attacking clubs. That's all I need to know for now.

I win trick one with the heart king as East plays the deuce and I play the three. Both opponents have played their lowest heart. Now four of clubs from dummy--jack from East. The proper card to win with is the king. I probably wouldn't be playing this way with just the ace, so the ace advertises I have the king. If I play the king, the opponent without the queen may think I have king-queen instead of ace-king. West follows with the five. I haven't seen the deuce.

I play the spade five--ace--eight--nine. Well! That eliminates a lot of problematic variations. West continues with the space four. I doubt he is doing this with ace fourth, so it doesn't hurt to finesse. East wins with the queen, and I play the deuce. I now have eight tricks. A diamond will make nine, so my contract is safe. East shifts to the diamond three--queen--ace--four. West continues with the jack of diamonds, which suggests he has the nine. East follows with the five. Is there any chance for a tenth trick? Here is the current position: 

	NORTH Robot ♠ K J ♥ J ♦ -- ♣ 9 8 7 6
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ 6 ♥ A Q 9 ♦ 8 ♣ A 3

If the club jack was a singleton or doubleton, then West guards both minors. I don't have entries necessary for a squeeze. Can I persuade him to hold the wrong minor at trick thirteen? I'm going to cash the spades, pitching a minor-suit loser, then cash the heart jack and play a club to my ace to finish the hearts. If East shows out when I play a club to the ace, West will have a complete count and will know which minor to hold. So my only chance is that East holds a doubleton club. If he does, and I've pitched my club, then West will again have a complete count when I play a club to the ace. So my only chance is to discard my diamond. I play accordingly. It turns out East did have a singleton club, so I had no chance. Making three.

	NORTH Robot ♠ K J 10 8 ♥ K J ♦ 10 4 ♣ 9 8 7 6 4
WEST Robot ♠ A 4 ♥ 10 7 4 ♦ A J 9 2 ♣ Q 10 5 2		EAST Robot ♠ Q 9 7 3 ♥ 8 6 5 2 ♦ 7 6 5 3 ♣ J
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ 6 5 2 ♥ A Q 9 3 ♦ K Q 8 ♣ A K 3

It occurs to me afterwards that I opened the bidding one club, so West knew I didn't have a doubleton and could never go wrong. At least he knew that in theory. I'm sure he's seen some of these clowns open their shorter minor and rebid 2NT. But I don't think these programs are heuristic, so he probably doesn't remember.

Plus 400 was again a better board than I would expect: 81.2%. Most declarers went down in three notrump by attacking clubs instead of spades.

My final score was 77.3%, finishing fourth out of 1011. A respectable showing, despite the fact I took none of the bizarre, swingy actions we saw from some of the other players. Nor, for that matter, did I do anything brilliant. If you go back and look at the results, the best boards were largely the result of mistakes made by the opponents. But we all had the same opponents. If my opponents made more mistakes than those at the other tables, it is because I gave them more opportunities to do so. Boards 1 and 6 are prime examples.

As we saw, some try to win by making bizarre decisions and hoping they work out. I don't think that's the winning strategy. My strategy is twofold: (1) Try to avoid making mistakes myself. (2) Give the opponents the opportunity to make mistakes as often as possible.

While it's true this strategy didn't quite translate into a win, it might have. All I had to do was to play a little bit tougher. If I had led and continued a diamond on Board 4, we might have beaten four spades, which would have been enough to nudge me into first place.

BBO Daylong Tournament 1 - Apr 7, 2021 - Board 7

Board 7
Both vulnerable

♠ J 9 8  ♥ A K Q  ♦ 8  ♣ A K 9 8 7 3

I open one club in first seat and partner responds one heart. Five club tricks and three heart tricks make eight. Seven and a half to eight tricks is worth a jump rebid, so I bid three clubs.

Partner bids three diamonds. If I were sure partner had five hearts, I would consider four hearts as a picture bid. But he could be probing for three notrump, so I bid a mere three hearts. Partner bids four diamonds. I'm not entirely sure what partner would do with four hearts and longer diamonds, but the tooltip confirms this shows five hearts, the diamond ace, and slam interest. Nice to know for sure what partner's bids mean.

Any time partner makes a slam try and you hold ace-king-queen of trumps, it's up to you whether to bid it or not. Partner isn't going to be accepting any invitations. So bidding five clubs or five hearts--whichever bid you think announces you are looking for a spade control--is pointless. You can't command partner to bid slam with a spade control, because you are limited and partner is captain. Partner might reasonably decide you would make the same try holding the club queen instead of the heart queen. It is almost inconceivable that partner is making a slam move missing ace-king-queen of hearts, ace-king of clubs, and a spade control, so you should just drive to slam. If this hand isn't good enough, partner shouldn't be inviting. 

Accordingly, I bid Blackwood and bid six hearts over partner's five diamonds.

	NORTH Phillip ♠ J 9 8 ♥ A K Q ♦ 8 ♣ A K 9 8 7 3
	SOUTH Robot ♠ K Q 6 ♥ J 9 7 3 2 ♦ A K 5 3 ♣ 6

West	North	East	South
Robot	Phillip	Robot	Robot
	1 ♣	Pass	1 ♥
Pass	3 ♣	Pass	3 ♦
Pass	3 ♥	Pass	4 ♦
Pass	4 NT	Pass	5 ♦
Pass	6 ♥	(All pass)

Partner's auction was quite aggressive. With jack fifth of hearts and a misfit for clubs, I wouldn't have been thinking about slam. Over three clubs, I would have simply bid three notrump. But slam is good, so I can't complain.

West leads the spade ace. I have eleven tricks if nothing bad happens. Where is the twelfth coming from? If I ruff a diamond in dummy, I will need three-two trumps (or a stiff ten). If I ruff out clubs, I will also need three-two trumps unless clubs are three-three. Perhaps I can try both. Suppose I cash the ace-king of trumps. If they split, I go after a diamond ruff: Diamond to the ace. Ruff. Club ace. Club ruff to my hand. Finish drawing trump. Now I need to get to dummy to cash the club king, so I will need the spade jack as an entry. If trumps don't split, I play for three-three clubs: Cash the heart queen. Ace and ruff a club. Cash the last trump and, again, get to dummy with the spade jack. Actually, I might not need clubs to split. If the defense doesn't shift to diamonds at trick two and someone is 2-1-6-4, he's squeezed on the spade. 

Both lines require a late spade entry to dummy. So, when East follows to trick one with the three, I drop the queen. West continues with the spade seven--nine--five--king. I cash two trumps. Everyone follows, with West playing the ten on the second round. That means I can afford to ruff the club high when the time comes.  Diamond to the ace. Ruff a diamond. Club ace. When this doesn't get ruffed, I claim.

	NORTH Phillip ♠ J 9 8 ♥ A K Q ♦ 8 ♣ A K 9 8 7 3
WEST Robot ♠ A 10 7 4 2 ♥ 10 5 ♦ Q 10 9 ♣ 10 4 2		EAST Robot ♠ 5 3 ♥ 8 6 4 ♦ J 7 6 4 2 ♣ Q J 5
	SOUTH Robot ♠ K Q 6 ♥ J 9 7 3 2 ♦ A K 5 3 ♣ 6

95%. Another generous reward. Only two other pairs reached six hearts. Four other pairs had auctions that began the same way. Three players showed considerable pessimism by signing off in four hearts over four diamonds. Another tried to be scientific about it. He bid five clubs. When his partner bid five diamonds, he bid five hearts. He might just as well have signed off in four hearts like the pessimists. As I said earlier, there is no way partner is bidding on missing the three top trump honors. 

A few players tried their customary cute tricks with auctions like:

North	South
1 NT	2 ♦
2 ♥	3 ♦
3 NT	Pass

Hard to find six hearts that way. Someone should tell these guys you don't have to try so hard. Sometimes you can score 95% with a normal, straightforward auction simply by exercising halfway decent judgment at the critical juncture.

BBO Daylong Tournament 1 - Apr 7, 2021 - Board 6

Board 6
Opponents vulnerable

♠ K J 7  ♥ J 8 7 4  ♦ K 7  ♣ Q J 9 4

RHO opens one diamond. I double. LHO bids one spade. Partner bids three clubs. That seems quite high enough to me, and the opponents agree.

	NORTH Phillip ♠ K J 7 ♥ J 8 7 4 ♦ K 7 ♣ Q J 9 4
	SOUTH Robot ♠ Q 9 2 ♥ 3 2 ♦ 10 9 3 2 ♣ A K 6 5

West	North	East	South
Robot	Phillip	Robot	Robot
1 ♦	Double	1 ♠	3 ♣
(All pass)

Glad to see partner isn't worried I'm one of those people who double one diamond without club support.

West leads the spade eight. This doesn't look promising. If trumps are three-two, then I can take four clubs, one ruff, two spades, and hopefully the diamond king. That's only eight tricks. If I go after ruffs before drawing trump, West will score a spade ruff.

What do I know about the high cards? East probably has the heart king, since West didn't lead one. He also has the spade ace. If he has the diamond ace as well, he might not have sold to three clubs undoubled. In addition, that would leave West with only 10 HCP. It seems likely the diamond ace is onside. 

I'm still not sure how I'm coming to nine tricks. But I might as well start by playing the spade jack to induce East to take his ace. He does. I play the deuce from my hand to leave open the possibility the West began with Q98 of spades. A careless falsecard of the nine would clarify the suit. At trick two, East shifts to the king of hearts. So East has ace of spades and king-queen of hearts. That leaves West with the heart ace and ace-queen-jack of diamonds. I play the deuce; West follows with the six. The five is still outstanding. East now leads the diamond eight.

This is a pretty friendly defense. Can I make this now? I need to score six trumps tricks without allowing the opponents to score a spade ruff. West will take his diamond ace and exit with his last spade. If I play a heart without drawing trumps, West will get a spade ruff. Perhaps I can draw two rounds of trumps, then play a heart, hoping West is out of trumps. That gives him 2452. No, that doesn't work. East will just win and play a third trump. But West will be under pressure, since he guards both red suits. Is there any way I can squeeze him? I don't have the entries for a traditional squeeze. But this looks like one of those entry-shifting matrices. Say I draw two rounds of trumps, cash the last spade, cash the diamond king, then play a heart. This will be the position with East on play:

	NORTH Phillip ♠ -- ♥ J 8 ♦ -- ♣ ? ?
	SOUTH Robot ♠ -- ♥ -- ♦ 10 9 ♣ ? ?

West holds two cards in each red suit. East must play a trump to stop the crossruff. If West pitches a heart, I win in dummy, ruff a heart, and dummy is high. If he pitches a diamond, I win in my hand, ruff a diamond, and my hand is high. What trumps do I keep to make it possible to choose which hand wins the trick? I need to hold 65 in my hand and honor-four in the dummy, and East's remaining trump must be the 2 or 3. That means I need to induce East to squander his club spots. Can I do that? Say he has 1032 of trumps. Maybe if I lead the 9 from dummy on the first round of clubs, he will think of some reason to cover.

I play the diamond deuce. West takes the ace and, surprisingly, does not play a spade. Instead, he cashes the heart ace, and East follows with the ten. Could the spade lead have been a singleton? West continues with the heart five. I see. West thought his partner had king doubleton of hearts. If that's the case, continuing spades would not work. He would need to give him a heart ruff instead. I play low; East plays the queen and I ruff. Now I don't need a second ruff. The heart jack is my ninth trick. I cash the club ace. When everyone follows, I claim.

	NORTH Phillip ♠ K J 7 ♥ J 8 7 4 ♦ K 7 ♣ Q J 9 4
WEST Robot ♠ 8 3 ♥ A 9 6 5 ♦ A Q J 6 5 ♣ 7 2		EAST Robot ♠ A 10 6 5 4 ♥ K Q 10 ♦ 8 4 ♣ 10 8 3
	SOUTH Robot ♠ Q 9 2 ♥ 3 2 ♦ 10 9 3 2 ♣ A K 6 5

East had 1083 of clubs. So if West had continued spades, I would have gone down unless East chose to play both his high clubs on the first two club tricks.

Thinking about this hand later, I revisited my thought "Maybe if I lead the 9 from dummy on the first round of clubs, he will think of some reason to cover [if he has 1032]." Is there a reason to cover? Here is the putative position at the point I lead the nine of clubs from dummy:

	NORTH Phillip ♠ 7 ♥ J 8 7 ♦ K ♣ Q J 9 4
WEST Robot ♠ -- ♥ A 9 5 ♦ Q J 6 5 ♣ 8 7		EAST Robot ♠ 10 6 5 ♥ Q 10 ♦ 4 ♣ 10 3 2
	SOUTH Robot ♠ Q ♥ 3 ♦ 10 9 3 ♣ A K 6 5

Indeed there is a reason to cover. If East doesn't cover the nine, I'm cold. I let the nine ride. Now I have two high trumps in dummy with which to ruff diamonds: king of diamonds, club to my ace, diamond ruff, spade to my queen, diamond ruff. If he doesn't cover, I can ruff two diamonds. If he does, I have an entry-shifting squeeze. Actually, I don't even need the squeeze, do I? If he covers, I can again just ruff two diamonds high, since the club six in my hand is good enough to draw the third round of trumps. (And if it wasn't, the squeeze wouldn't work anyway.)

But hold on. If I can make this contract by ruffing two diamonds high, maybe that's what I should be aiming for in the first place instead of looking for obscure squeezes. Why not just cash the diamond king, then play queen of clubs and a club to my ace. If West began with ten doubleton of clubs, then dummy's jack and nine are high and I can ruff two diamonds. Since this line works whenever West has ten doubleton of clubs and floating the nine works only when East has specifically 1032, this line is clearly better. Why didn't I see that at the time?

I think the problem is I was thinking about this hand as a crossruff. I need to duck a heart to set up the crossruff, so any line that didn't involve ducking a heart wasn't on my radar. Computers have an advantage over us in that they can simply try every possible line. We can't think fast enough to do that, so we play by identifying patterns: "This deal looks like a crossruff; this one looks like a dummy reversal; this looks like one of the deals where you have to do such-and-such." We have to think this way, but we run into problems when we apply the wrong pattern. When that happens, it is important to step back and ask yourself where your thinking went wrong. 

Why doesn't this hand fit the crossruff pattern? The reason to embark on a crossruff is insufficient entries. You need to score ruffs in your hand in order to ruff things in dummy. But entries aren't an issue here. I can use a club entry to ruff one diamond and a spade entry to ruff another. So there is no reason to duck a heart. Having discovered the "bug" in my thinking, perhaps I won't have this blind spot the next time.

That was disconcerting, though. Imagine having to explain to your teammates how you went down two in a cold contract by leading the nine from QJ9x opposite AKxx and passing it, letting West score his ten, followed by a spade ruff.

I score 97.8% for plus 110. That seems generous. I did nothing good; the opponents misdefended. And everyone has the same opponents, so this result shouldn't be that uncommon.

Why was it uncommon? For starters, not everyone doubled one diamond. Those who didn't usually wound up defending three diamonds, down one. Passing over one diamond is conservative. At this vulnerability, I would double with a little less. 

Of the eleven pairs who did double and reached three clubs, ten went down. Most declarers played a low spade from dummy at trick one, which is an error. You want East to win the ace to cut communication. Playing low makes it easy for him to insert the ten, which makes it easy for West to score his spade ruff later. 

The players who did play the jack at trick one fell from grace by falsecarding the nine from their hand, clarifying the suit for East. Accurate falsecarding isn't just a matter of playing gratuitous high cards. You need to consider the situation from your opponent's point of view and figure out how to create an ambiguity. The easiest way to do that is to ask yourself what cards you should retain rather than what card you should play. In this case, from East's point of view, West's eight could be from a singleton, eight doubleton, or Q98. You need to hold on to the cards you want East to think his partner might have, so you must retain your nine.

So it turns out I did do something good after all. Although 97.8% still seems like an excessive reward.