ACBL Daylong 1 - Jul 29, 2021 - Board 5

Board 5
Our side vulnerable

♠ A 9 8 3 2  ♥ A Q J  ♦ A 7 5 2  ♣ 3

Two passes. I open one spade in third seat. LHO bids two spades (hearts and a minor)--pass--two notrump to me. I pass, anticipating doubling three clubs for take-out on the next round. 

The auction proceeds as planned. Three clubs--pass--pass. I double, and partner bids three spades. RHO bids four clubs. Had partner bid three diamonds, I might have something to think about. But when he has spade support, he's limited by his failure to raise on the first round. So I pass. LHO passes also, and partner continues on to four spades. 

It's conceivable partner has a hand that wasn't worth a raise initially but was improved by the auction and merits a four-spade bid after my double. But if that's the case, he should have bid it on the previous round. This auction should not exist. Not only does bidding this way announce that you expect four spades to go down, it also gives the opponents an extra round of bidding to investigate their own potential.

The opponents, thankfully, choose not to double. West leads the king of clubs.

	NORTH Robot ♠ J 7 5 ♥ K 10 9 6 ♦ J 10 9 ♣ 10 6 4
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ A 9 8 3 2 ♥ A Q J ♦ A 7 5 2 ♣ 3

West	North	East	South
Robot	Robot	Robot	Phillip
	Pass	Pass	1 ♠
2 ♠	Pass	2 NT	Pass
3 ♣	Pass	Pass	Double
Pass	3 ♠	4 ♣	Pass
Pass	4 ♠	(All pass)

Partner was right the first time. Three spades is quite enough. He doesn't expect to make four spades, and his heart stack gives him some hope of defeating four clubs.

So what is West's shape? Had he led a low club, I would assume he didn't have a singleton diamond. But he would tend to lead a club with virtually any hand containing ace-king of clubs, so a singleton diamond is certainly possible. In fact, it's likely. The lack of a double suggests spades are splitting, so he is probably two-one in spades and diamonds. If so, I will lose two spades and one club. If I manage to lose only one diamond, I'm down one. That result will at least beat anyone who is going minus defending a club partscore.

Will I be able to lose only one diamond? How is the play going to go? West will continue clubs at trick two. I ruff and duck a spade, and they tap me again. I cash the spade ace and they split. East is left with a high trump, and I have only one trump left in each hand. I've lost two tricks. So, to hold it to down one, I can afford to lose only two more: the high trump and one diamond.

I now play four rounds of hearts, reaching the following position with the lead in dummy:

	NORTH Robot ♠ J ♥ -- ♦ J 10 9 ♣ --
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ 9 ♥ -- ♦ A 7 5 ♣ --

East gains nothing by ruffing in as I cash hearts, since he will then have to give me a ruff-sluff or play a diamond for me.

What are East's last four cards in the above position? If he has the high spade, a club, and the king-queen of diamonds, I'm in trouble. I will play ace and a diamond, East will win, draw my trumps, then cash a club trick for down two. But if West has a singleton diamond honor, I can escape for down one. I finesse the diamond, losing to the stiff honor. Now West must give me a ruff-sluff, enabling me to pitch my last diamond.

None of this comes to pass however. At trick one, East plays the club deuce, and West shifts to the queen of diamonds. That's good to see. No more problems in the diamond suit. And now I'm even more confident trumps are splitting. West would certainly be tapping me if they weren't.

East plays the diamond three, and I take my ace. I can no longer duck a trump, since West will get a diamond ruff if I do. So I play ace and another. They split as expected. East wins with the king and returns the five of clubs. I ruff, run the hearts, then concede a diamond and a trump for down one.

	NORTH Robot ♠ J 7 5 ♥ K 10 9 6 ♦ J 10 9 ♣ 10 6 4
WEST Robot ♠ 10 4 ♥ 8 7 5 4 2 ♦ Q ♣ A K J 9 7		EAST Robot ♠ K Q 6 ♥ 3 ♦ K 8 6 4 3 ♣ Q 8 5 2
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ A 9 8 3 2 ♥ A Q J ♦ A 7 5 2 ♣ 3

89%! I can't fault East too much for not doubling, though it was a very costly decision. His hand produced three tricks when it might have produced only one. West's spade ten and diamond queen proved critical, and he wasn't a favorite to hold either one. True, North's auction announced that he didn't expect four spades to make, but there is no reason he had to be right about that. 

Should West have doubled? He knows his partner wouldn't be bidding this way without some defense. His singleton diamond is a plus, and the fact that it's the queen is another plus. On the other hand, his high cards are in the suit his partner supported twice, where they aren't much use on defense. If his hearts and clubs were reversed, he would have a clear double.

Why was this result so good? For starters, 40 out of 62 Souths sold to three clubs. I didn't comment on my decision to compete at the time, because it looked routine. Apparently most of the field didn't think so. Yes, doubling three clubs entails some risk. But if partner fits one of your suits, you have quite a good hand. The fact that you can take nine tricks opposite a hand that wouldn't have responded to your opening bid attests to that. If partner is, say, 2-4-3-4, you may regret acting. But the opponents didn't try for game, so partner rates to have a little something. He'll pass with that pattern, and, with your three cashing tricks and fillers in declarer's second suit, you should have a fair chance to beat this.

The other reason this is such a good board is that the majority of the Souths who did reach four spades managed to go down two, usually by ducking a spade rather than playing ace and another, thereby losing a diamond ruff. Perhaps they were trying to retain control if trumps were four-one. If so, they missed the inference that West would have persisted with club taps if trumps weren't splitting.

ACBL Daylong 1 - Jul 29, 2021 - Board 4

Board 4
Both vulnerable

♠ 7 2  ♥ Q J 5  ♦ K 6 5 3  ♣ A K 7 5

LHO opens one diamond, and RHO bids one spade. I don't like passing with an opening bid, but I have no other sensible action. I pass. LHO raises to two spades and RHO goes on to four. I lead the club king and the following dummy appears.

	NORTH Robot ♠ A K 10 6 ♥ A 10 7 ♦ 10 9 8 4 ♣ J 6
WEST Phillip ♠ 7 2 ♥ Q J 5 ♦ K 6 5 3 ♣ A K 7 5

West	North	East	South
Phillip	Robot	Robot	Robot
	1 ♦	Pass	1 ♠
Pass	2 ♠	Pass	4 ♠
(All pass)

Partner plays the deuce of clubs, and declarer plays the nine. It appears we have two club tricks and a diamond. There are fifteen high-card points outstanding, so there is room in partner's hand for the heart king. If he has it, I may need to switch to hearts before declarer can take a pitch--either pitching hearts from his hand on dummy's diamonds or pitching a heart from dummy on club tricks in his hand. 

While thinking in general terms like that is a good start, you should always construct a full layout before you make a decision. Sometimes what you are concerned about turns out to be implausible--or even impossible--for reasons that aren't clear until you have a complete construction. In constructing possible hands for South, I would normally assume he has at least five spades. But the robots in theory promise four spades with their two-spade raise, and they take that promise seriously enough to have no qualms about leaping to four spades with only four.

First let's construct a hand where declarer pitches his hearts on dummy's diamonds. How about

♠ Q J x x x  ♥ x x  ♦ A Q J  ♣ Q x x ?

Yes, that's perfectly possible. But there is no rush. I can afford to cash another club as long as I switch to a heart at trick three. Can I find a layout where dummy's hearts go on declarer's clubs? Perhaps

♠ Q J x x  ♥ x x  ♦ A Q J  ♣ Q 10 x x .

Now I have to switch to a heart at trick two. If I cash the club ace, it's too late. 

Next question. Are there hands where it costs to switch to a heart at trick two?  It will cost a heart trick if declarer has king third. But if the heart trick is going away anyway, it won't matter. So I need to find a hand where he has no discard. How about

♠ Q J x x  ♥ K x x  ♦ A Q J x  ♣ x x ?

Yes. A heart switch would not be a winner against that hand. Does the third heart even matter? Let's consider

♠ Q J x x x  ♥ K x  ♦ A Q J x  ♣ x x .

If I switch at trick two, I lose a club trick. But as long as I cash the club first, the heart trick I give away is immaterial.

At times like this, I wish my robot partner knew how to signal. Hearts is obviously the suit where our tricks might disappear. So he should play a discouraging club at trick one if he can stand a heart shift and an encouraging club if he can't. 

Opposite myself, I would shift to a heart at trick two after seeing the club deuce. But this partner's carding is no help, so I just have to go with the odds. The hand where I have to shift at trick two is rather specific. There are more cases where an immediate heart shift is wrong. So I'll go ahead and cash the club, then worry about what to do at trick three. 

I play the club ace, partner plays the three, and declarer ruffs with the spade nine. See how much time I saved by postponing my decision? Now I don't have to worry about what to do at trick three. 

Declarer wouldn't have bid one spade with 4-4-4-1, so he probably has five spades. His likeliest patterns are "5431" or "5521" with length in either red suit. Could he have longer diamonds, perhaps 4-3-5-1? Unfortunately I can't ask, but that would leave partner with a diamond void, so it's unlikely even if it's possible. For now, I'll assume declarer is 5-3-4-1, 5-4-3-1, or 5-5-2-1.

Declarer plays the eight of spades to the ace and the six of spades back to his queen, partner following with the five and jack. After seeing partner's spade jack, I'm pretty confident declarer has five spades. 

He plays a spade to dummy, presumably preparing to take a diamond finesse. Is there any reason for me to duck when he does? I don't see what it gains. And if he has ace-queen tight, ducking will not be a success.

On the third round of spades, I pitch the five of clubs; partner pitches the four of hearts. Here is the current position with the lead in dummy. Declarer has one low spade and seven red cards remaining.

	NORTH Robot ♠ 10 ♥ A 10 7 ♦ 10 9 8 4 ♣ --
WEST Phillip ♠ -- ♥ Q J 5 ♦ K 6 5 3 ♣ 7

Declarer plays the four of diamonds--seven--queen. Unless this is ace-queen tight, declarer must have the diamond jack. He would be finessing against partner's jack if he didn't have it himself. And he would be leading the ten and passing it with ace-queen-jack-fourth. So this is presumably ace-queen tight or ace-queen-jack tight.

I win the diamond king and return a diamond. Partner pitches a club. So I was wrong. Declarer had four diamonds. Now that I think of it, there is no actual reason to lead ten and pass it with ace-queen-jack fourth. It's just the instinctive play. But robots don't have instincts.

Not that it matters. I don't really care what declarer's red-suit shape is. I was just practicing. We still have a heart trick coming to us, so declarer makes four.

	NORTH Robot ♠ A K 10 6 ♥ A 10 7 ♦ 10 9 8 4 ♣ J 6
WEST Phillip ♠ 7 2 ♥ Q J 5 ♦ K 6 5 3 ♣ A K 7 5		EAST Robot ♠ J 5 ♥ 8 4 3 2 ♦ 7 ♣ Q 10 8 4 3 2
	SOUTH Robot ♠ Q 9 8 4 3 ♥ K 9 6 ♦ A Q J 2 ♣ 9

Taking all our tricks was worth 75%. Some defenders did switch to a heart either at trick two or after winning the diamond king, letting declarer make five. I can understand a shift at trick two. I think it's anti-percentage, but at least a plausible layout exists where it's necessary. If that's true for every play you make, you won't go terribly wrong. It's the plays that might lose and can't gain that you want to avoid. And shifting to a heart when you win the diamond king is a good example. Even if partner has the heart king, what does a heart shift accomplish? There is no reason to establish winners once the defense is out of entries. Unfortunately mistakes like this can be hard to notice, because we often get away with them. If partner has the king of hearts, you might never realize your shift was an error.

Concerning East's signal at trick one, there are some who play that a lead of the king asks for attitude and the lead of the ace asks for suit preference. That way, you can choose your lead from ace-king based on what signal you want partner to give. If I played that way, I would always lead the king. Why would I ever want a suit preference signal?

What I dislike about suit preference at trick one is it can create a headache if you don't wish to signal for either suit. In this particular case, you survive because you have a variety of clubs to choose from. If you play the four, partner can probably tells it's neither your highest nor your lowest, so he will get the message.

That's not always the case, however. Sometimes you have no middle card, or your middle card, from partner's perspective, could easily be your highest or your lowest. When that happens, partner will get the wrong message.

The problem is that suit preference creates a false dichotomy. Why is the choice necessarily between hearts and diamonds? Most of the time, it's clear what to switch to if a switch is called for, so the real choice is between "make that switch" and "try something else." What you want to see is a signal that unambiguously makes that distinction. In this case, diamonds is dummy's source of tricks. It is more likely that declarer will be able to pitch heart losers on dummy's diamonds than that he will be able to pitch diamond losers on dummy's hearts. So that is the concern the defense should focus on. Accordingly, you should play your lowest club if you have the king or queen of hearts and the highest spot you can afford if you don't (or the other way around if you prefer to signal upside-down). 

Since you never play a middle card, your card is almost certain to be readable. And the fact that you never play a middle card offers another advantage. It means partner can confidently place declarer with either all the spots lower or all the spots higher than the one you play, which may help him in constructing the full hand.

How does partner know what to do if you signal not to shift to hearts? He works it out as best he can, continuing clubs, shifting to diamonds, or playing a trump, depending on what would appear to work most often. Sometimes the best alternative is obvious; sometimes it isn't. But at least he knows that what is probably the most attractive defense isn't going to work. You've conveyed an important piece of information unambiguously. That often isn't true if your card is suit preference.

 

 

 

ACBL Daylong 1 - Jul 29, 2021 - Board 3

Board 3
Opponents vulnerable

♠ A 6  ♥ A K Q J 9 8  ♦ Q 8  ♣ 10 8 3

I'm in first seat. If I open one heart, what should my rebid be? A rebid of three hearts usually shows seven and half or eight tricks, and this hand has only seven plus. Still, it's too good for a two-heart rebid. 16 HCP plus two length points in hearts makes 18. Even if you deduct for the unprotected queen of diamonds, you still have 17. In short, the hand is worth a three-heart rebid if you count points but not if you count playing tricks.

This is a common problem. Some hands fit in the cracks between a minimum rebid and a jump rebid. One way to solve the problem is to open such hands one notrump, getting your extra values into the auction without overstating them. One notrump is about what this hand is worth in playing strength, though choosing that bid with a six-card major isn't to everyone's taste. Personally, I don't think it's a terrible choice, especially at IMPs. It's not hard to imagine three notrump making with four hearts going down, and opening one notrump may be the easiest (and least revealing) way to get there. But it could also lead to a silly result. This hand is only a quarter trick shy of a three-heart rebid, so I'll take the more mainstream approach.

I open one heart, LHO doubles, and partner bids one spade. I bid three hearts as planned, LHO doubles again, and partner raises to four hearts, which ends the auction. West leads the five of hearts.

	NORTH Robot ♠ Q 9 7 2 ♥ 7 6 ♦ 10 6 5 ♣ K J 9 7
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ A 6 ♥ A K Q J 9 8 ♦ Q 8 ♣ 10 8 3

West	North	East	South
Robot	Robot	Robot	Phillip
			1 ♥
Double	1 ♠	Pass	3 ♥
Double	4 ♥	(All pass)

If we assume West would have led a diamond with ace-king, then East must have one of those two cards. West must have everything else--and probably a stiff heart as well--to have his second double. That means the queen of clubs is onside. Unfortunately, I have no entry to dummy's long club, so it appears I have four losers. That extra quarter trick would come in handy. Just make the diamond queen the king, and I could endplay West to make this.

How will the play go? I will draw trump and lead the club ten. West will have to hold up until the third round of clubs, then switch to a diamond. But maybe that won't be obvious. If he thinks I have, for example, a stiff spade and king-queen third of diamonds, he will shift to a spade instead of a diamond, giving me an overtrick.

I play a low heart from dummy, and East plays the ten. I win with the queen (to leave open the possibility that East has jack-ten fourth) and cash the king. West pitches the five of clubs. West would probably pitch from a five-card suit if he had one, but he would pitch his lowest card, since the robots signal count when discarding. Since the five can't be lowest from a five-card suit, it appears West is 4-1-4-4. 

On the next heart, West pitches the eight of spades, and I pitch dummy's diamond five. On the fourth heart, West pitches the four of clubs, completing his echo. If I have read the hand correctly, that was an error. Now he can't hold up his ace until the third round. I pitch another diamond from dummy and lead the club ten. West plays the queen. I win with the king and play another club to West's ace. East plays the six, then the deuce.

West shifts to the jack of diamonds, East takes his king and returns the deuce to his partner's ace. I can pitch my spade loser on dummy's long club, so I have the rest. Making four.

	NORTH Robot ♠ Q 9 7 2 ♥ 7 6 ♦ 10 6 5 ♣ K J 9 7
WEST Robot ♠ K J 10 8 ♥ 5 ♦ A J 9 3 ♣ A Q 5 4		EAST Robot ♠ 5 4 3 ♥ 10 4 3 2 ♦ K 7 4 2 ♣ 6 2
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ A 6 ♥ A K Q J 9 8 ♦ Q 8 ♣ 10 8 3

Plus 420 is worth 87%. I'm not sure why West pitched the second club. Some Wests defended better. Weirdly, what seemed to make the difference was the play at trick one. At the tables where declarer won with the heart jack, West worked out the right defense. When declarer won with the queen, he didn't. 

Winning with the jack is certainly an error. There is no reason to let West know your hearts are solid. But why that made it easier for West to see he had to hold his clubs, I can't say. Sometimes I wish I could trace through the code and see why the robots do what they do.

While I got trick one right, I did make a rather lazy play myself later on. I realized that I wanted West to play me for

♠ x  ♥ A K Q J x x  ♦ K Q x  ♣ x x x

But I forgot the next step. I should have pretended that's what I had and played accordingly. I would never pitch from dummy's ten third of diamonds if I held king-queen third in my hand, since the diamond jack might be doubleton. I would pitch two spades in that case, so that's what I should do here. That way, I might still make this even if West holds onto his clubs. 

Human defenders, of course, should solve this problem. East must give count on the clubs so West knows how many rounds to hold up. But on the third club, he should pitch a discouraging spade. West will then play him for the diamond king. 

A discouraging spade is better than an encouraging diamond. Sometimes your spots are unreadable, and partner can't tell whether your play is high or low. If you routinely pitch discouraging cards from suits you don't like rather than encouraging cards from suits you do, partner will have an easier time resolving ambiguities when they occur.

I'm sure some partnerships would try to solve this via some fancy suit-preference footwork in the trump suit. But that's not for me. You have 24 different ways to play your spots, and I haven't a clue what any of those sequences means. Pitching a discouraging spade on the third round of clubs is the clearest way to get your message across.

ACBL Daylong 1 - Jul 29, 2021 - Board 2

Board 2
Our side vulnerable

♠ A Q J 9 7 6 4  ♥ A J 9 5 4  ♦ --  ♣ A

RHO opens one diamond. I might as well start with two diamonds with the intention of bidding lots of spades later. LHO passes, partner bids two hearts, and RHO passes. 

The right bid is three spades. That should be almost forcing, since it means I'm willing to hear a correction to four hearts. Partner is allowed to pass with a serious misfit (say, 1-2 in the majors), but most of the time he should either correct to four hearts or raise to four spades. Unfortunately, I'm not sure partner will see it that way. I'm afraid he'll pass more often than he should. With a three-loser hand, I don't want to risk missing a game, so I bid four spades. That suggests my spades are self-sufficient and I'm not really interested in a correction--that I was just showing my heart suit in case we had a good fit and could make a slam. 

Partner seems to think we can. He bids six hearts, and I pass. West leads the seven of diamonds.

	NORTH Phillip ♠ A Q J 9 7 6 4 ♥ A J 9 5 4 ♦ -- ♣ A
	SOUTH Robot ♠ 2 ♥ 10 7 3 ♦ A Q 10 4 ♣ 10 8 7 6 4

West	North	East	South
Robot	Phillip	Robot	Robot
1 ♦	2 ♦	Pass	2 ♥
Pass	4 ♠	Pass	6 ♥
(All pass)

If I had my bid, this would be a good contract. As it is, it's bad but not hopeless. I need to bring in the heart suit for one loser and set up spades with no losers. Unfortunately, I don't have enough entries to make my best play in both suits. I need to compromise on one of them.

I pitch a spade from dummy, East plays the deuce, and I win with the ten. By the Rule of Eleven, East has one diamond higher than the seven, and, since he didn't play it, it's probably the eight. 

I see two options. (A) I can play a spade to the queen and ruff a spade, which is my best play in the spade suit, then hope one heart finesse is sufficient to bring home the heart suit, or (B) I can take two heart finesses, which is my best play in the heart suit, and decide later whether to take a ruffing finesse in spades or to try to drop a doubleton king on my left. (A) is problematic. Even if the spade finesse works, I'm not home yet. If the king drops doubleton when I take my ruff, I will need both heart honors on my left, else West can score an overruff when East wins his trump trick. (B) looks like the better line. For one thing, I will have a better idea who has the spade king once I find out how the trump honors are split.

I play the three of hearts--deuce--nine--king. There are 18 HCP outstanding, so there is room for the spade king in East's hand. But it is overwhelmingly likely to be on my left. So if East continues hearts, I will need to hope I can drop it with only ruff. 

East doesn't continue hearts. He shifts to the nine of clubs. West plays the three, and I win dummy's ace. No club honor from West. So he probably started with king-queen third or fourth of clubs, leaving him relatively short in the majors. If he is 2-2, 2-3, or 3-2, as seems likely at this point, I am probably making this. If the king of spades drops after one ruff, and I can take a heart finesse. If it doesn't, I will need to ruff a second spade, but then the queen of hearts will be dropping. I suspect the spade king is doubleton. East would have returned a trump if he thought I needed two ruffs.

I play ace and ruff a spade. Everyone follows, but, surprisingly, no king. I ruff a club to my hand and ruff another spade, dropping the king as East pitches the eight of diamonds. I ruff another club and cash the heart ace. The queen drops. Making six, for a 99% board.

	NORTH Phillip ♠ A Q J 9 7 6 4 ♥ A J 9 5 4 ♦ -- ♣ A
WEST Robot ♠ K 5 3 ♥ Q 2 ♦ K J 9 7 5 ♣ K Q 3		EAST Robot ♠ 10 8 ♥ K 8 6 ♦ 8 6 3 2 ♣ J 9 5 2
	SOUTH Robot ♠ 2 ♥ 10 7 3 ♦ A Q 10 4 ♣ 10 8 7 6 4

East could beat me by returning a trump at trick three. I'm not sure why he didn't. It wouldn't appear to be a difficult play to find. I don't even see what he was trying to accomplish with the club shift. It turns out line (A) would have worked by force, but I still think (B) was the percentage choice. That's especially true if East is going to misdefend anyway, rendering (A) unnecessary.

Most players bid two diamonds, then raised two hearts to four. I don't care for that auction. Spades could easily be the better game. You'd feel pretty silly if partner is two-two in the majors. Some doubled, then bid four spades over partner's two clubs, an auction I care for even less. You don't make take-out doubles with seven-fives. Even if you plan from the start to bid four spades next whatever happens, an initial two diamonds gives partner a better picture of your hand than a take-out double does. A few players actually bid correctly and reached a sensible contract: two diamonds, followed by three spades, which partner corrected to four hearts. Some overbid as I did, reaching slam on the same auction. But only two of them made it. 

Well, this was an exciting start! A grand slam and a small slam, both with some difficult choices in the play. One of the things I like about these daylong tournaments is that after a hand like this I can relax a while before going on to the next one. Stamina isn't a problem.

ACBL Daylong 1 - Jul 29, 2021 - Board 1

Board 1
Neither vulnerable

This is an ACBL tournament, not a BBO tournament, so it will consist of twelve boards rather than eight. I like that a little better, since you don't feel as if you are out of the running if you have one bad board early on. There should be over 1000 participants.

♠ A 7 6  ♥ A Q 9  ♦ A K Q J 10 6  ♣ 3

Partner opens one club, and RHO passes. The robots play strong jump shifts at the two-level, but this hand is too good for that. A strong jump shift should be a slam invitation, a hand where you want to show your slam interest, then subside and leave the decision to partner. Hands in that range are difficult to bid any other way. When you have a hand where you will probably drive to slam, there is nothing to gain by jump shifting. You are better off leaving partner room to describe his hand. In short, you should jump shift only if you are willing to surrender captaincy. If you wish to retain control of the auction, you should bid more slowly.

I bid one diamond, and partner rebids one heart. I bid one spade, which the robots play as artificial and game forcing.

Partner raises to three spades. Two spades would show four spades. Three spades shows four spades and extra values. This is one of the benefits of a slow auction. After a jump shift, it is hard for opener to show extras. As the auction has developed, I now know we are in grand slam territory. It would be difficult to discern this had I started with two diamonds, depriving partner of his opportunity to jump.

Four notrump at this point ostensibly agrees spades, but that's OK, because I can always correct to notrump. It's actually convenient that spades is the implied trump suit, because it gives me a chance to find out about the king and queen of spades. 

I bid four notrump, and partner responds five hearts. So he has the club ace and spade king but no queen of spades. That's only seven HCP. He should have at least fourteen for his three-spade bid, so there is a good chance he has the heart king. 

I bid five notrump, and partner bids six clubs, showing the club king. That's  ten HCP. He needs four more. Even if he doesn't have the heart king, seven notrump has to be OK. He would need the club queen and a couple of jacks. Seven notrump can't be worse than a finesse and could be much better, so I bid it. In retrospect, I probably shouldn't have bothered with five notrump.

	NORTH Robot ♠ K J 10 3 ♥ J 8 7 3 ♦ 4 ♣ A K 6 4
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ A 7 6 ♥ A Q 9 ♦ A K Q J 10 6 ♣ 3

West	North	East	South
Robot	Robot	Robot	Phillip
	1 ♣	Pass	1 ♦
Pass	1 ♥	Pass	1 ♠
Pass	3 ♠	Pass	4 NT
Pass	5 ♥	Pass	5 NT
Pass	6 ♣	Pass	7 NT
(All pass)

Hmm. Partner didn't have extras after all.That looks more like a two spade bid to me. Maybe partner thinks he's supposed to bid three spades any time he has a stiff diamond--that two spades should show a 4-4-2-3. Even so, this is a good contract, at least at matchpoints. Since almost everyone rates to be in at least six notrump, we want to bid the grand if it is better than even money, which it is.

West leads the ten of clubs. I doubt he is leading from queen-ten-nine against seven notrump, so I suspect the queen and jack of clubs are on my right. I have eleven cashing tricks. If the spade queen is onside, I have thirteen. I also have two potential tricks in the heart suit. 

One possibility is to lead the heart jack from dummy, assuming East will cover if the has the king. If he does cover, that gives me twelve tricks. Then I have two ways to look for a thirteenth. I can cash the heart queen, trying to drop the ten, and fall back on guessing the spade queen if that fails. Or I can try to drop a doubleton queen of spades, falling back on finessing the heart nine if that fails.

The problem with leading the heart jack is it's not clear how often East will cover. He certain won't cover with king empty fifth, since he might crash his partner's stiff queen, and he might be worried about covering with king fourth. I think I'm better off just running the diamonds and hoping to read the end position. The robots aren't good at deceptive discarding. Unless something better presents itself, my plan will be to play West for the spade queen. But their discarding may persuade me to try something else.

I win with the club ace; East plays the eight. I start running the diamonds. I want to keep one small club in dummy as long as possible. The opponents don't know about my singleton club. If clubs are four-four, each opponent may think he is the only one who can guard the suit. So I will pitch one club, then three hearts, and, finally, the last club. 

On the first two rounds of diamonds, both opponents echo. East plays seven-three; West, nine-five. On the next two rounds, West follows with the deuce, then eight of diamonds, and East pitches the five of hearts and the deuce of clubs. One would expect East's first pitch to be from his five-card suit if he has one, pitching his lowest card to give count. The heart five can't be lowest from a five-card suit, so East is probably 4432. After his club pitch, I know he began with four clubs, since he is known to hold the queen and jack. So his pattern rates to be 4-3-2-4 or 3-4-2-4. 

On the next diamond, West pitches the deuce of spades; East, the four of hearts. It's so nice to have the opponents discard honest count cards. This would be a much trickier deal against humans. West's spade deuce is presumably from a three-card suit, so I now know that East was 3-4-2-4. I still don't know where the spade queen is, however. West would have no hesitation pitching from queen third, because, from his point of view, his queen is doomed anyway. 

On the last diamond, West pitches the five of clubs; East, the heart ten. The ten? Did East just stiff his onside king of hearts? That makes sense. While West can afford to pitch from queen third of spades, East can't. If I don't have a side dummy entry, I can take only three spade tricks if he holds all his spades, but I can take four tricks if he pitches one. And he wants to hold his queen jack of clubs in case I began with three clubs. Hearts is the only suit he can afford to pitch.

I cash the heart ace. If the king drops, I have the rest. If it doesn't, I have to hope West has the spade queen. It drops. Making seven.

	NORTH Robot ♠ K J 10 3 ♥ J 8 7 3 ♦ 4 ♣ A K 6 4
WEST Robot ♠ 9 4 2 ♥ 6 2 ♦ 9 8 5 2 ♣ 10 9 7 5		EAST Robot ♠ Q 8 5 ♥ K 10 5 4 ♦ 7 3 ♣ Q J 8 2
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ A 7 6 ♥ A Q 9 ♦ A K Q J 10 6 ♣ 3

I made an error in discarding from dummy. If West has ten-nine fourth of clubs, he needs to retain his clubs in case his partner has jack doubleton. But that's only true if I keep four clubs in dummy. I should have held all of dummy's clubs as long as possible, pitching three hearts, then two clubs. I was thinking too generically. I should have thought more specifically about West's potential problem.

Seven notrump making is worth 96%. Out of 59 pairs, eight other pairs reached seven notrump, but only five of them made it, most of them after receiving a helpful spade lead on a different auction. Several players chose to make a strong jump shift. Partner bid two notrump over that, and now Blackwood was no longer an option, making it difficult to investigate a grand.

BBO Daylong Tournament 1 - Jun 1, 2021 - Board 8

Board 8
Neither vulnerable

♠ Q  ♥ A K J 6 5  ♦ A J 10 6  ♣ A Q 2

Three passes to me. This looks like enough casino points to open in fourth seat. Some are going to count their HCP and open two clubs. But this is a five-loser hand. It's not worth opening two clubs. And, even if it were, I would be hesitant to open two clubs with this pattern. Two club auctions are awkward when you have a variety of strains to explore. 

I open one heart, and partner raises to four. Could we have a slam? It's certainly possible. Partner could have a stiff diamond and the club king, for example. But that's a magic hand. Four losers is a lot for partner to cover when he couldn't open the bidding. I pass. West leads the six of spades

	NORTH Robot ♠ K 5 ♥ 10 8 7 4 3 ♦ K 7 5 ♣ 9 6 5
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ Q ♥ A K J 6 5 ♦ A J 10 6 ♣ A Q 2

West	North	East	South
Robot	Robot	Robot	Phillip
Pass	Pass	Pass	1 ♥
Pass	4 ♥	(All pass)

Hmm. I'm not sure I care for partner's four heart bid. Two hearts looks more to the point, five-card support notwithstanding. With both opponents being passed hands, you need some expectation of making four hearts to bid it. Fortunately, I have partner covered.

I play a low spade from dummy, hoping East inserts the jack. But no. He wins the ace and shifts to the seven of clubs. I try the queen, which loses to the king. West continues with the club ten, East plays the eight, and I win with my ace. I don't think West would lead the ten holding jack-ten, so I suspect the club jack is on my right. Other than that, I don't know much about the lie of the club suit. The fact that East led the seven from a suit headed by jack-eight-seven doesn't mean much. The robots' choice of spots when shifting in the middle of the hand appears to be random.

I can draw trump and pitch my club on the spade king. Assuming no surprise in the trump suit, I'm left with finding the diamond queen for an overtrick.

Everyone follows small to the first round of trumps. West pitches the spade three on the second round, and East follows with the queen. Six of spades, then the three. Usually the robots conceal the fifth card when they have led fourth best from a five-card suit. I don't know if they do this for deceptive purposes or because they don't know any better, thinking they are supposed to give present count. 

For the record, present count on your second play in the suit you have led works fine if you are playing third-and-lowest opening leads. But not if you are playing fourth best, as the robots do. In that case, if you play high from four (originally five), then partner can't tell whether you started with four or five. So you should play low, your original fifth best. Think of this as a "clarifying" card rather than a count card. It clarifies your holding, because it's a card you can't have if you began with four. What if you began with six? Then you should play high. If you play low, partner will assume you began with five. This means you are carding the same way with an original holding of four or six. But partner can probably work that out. It's certainly better than carding the same way with five or six. In general, two-card ambiguities are easier to resolve than one-card ambiguities. 

Given the popularity of third-and-lowest opening leads, many players never learned the proper continuations when playing old-fashioned fourth best. I suspect the BBO programmers are among them. Of course, you can always decide that count is more important to declarer than to partner and choose to card "incorrectly" for deceptive purposes. This, in fact, is one advantage of fourth-best leads. It is easier to conceal your count later if you decide to do so.

Anyway, the robots card incorrectly as a matter of routine, so I suspect West began with six spades.

I play a heart to dummy. West pitches the diamond nine; East, the spade deuce. Their first discard in a suit is usually honest count, so it appears West is either 6-1-4-2 or 6-1-2-4. I'm inclined to think the former. I don't think West would have continued with the club ten at trick three if he began with king-ten fourth. In any event, I 'll get confirmation when I ruff a club to my hand.

I pitch my club on the spade king. East plays the spade ten; West, the seven. When I play the club nine from dummy, East follows with the three. What? Not the jack? Maybe West is 6-1-2-4 after all? No. When I ruff, West pitches the spade eight. Cute. East knew he didn't need to cover the club nine, since I had no useful discard.  

Now that's a play I don't think many humans would make. I might fail to cover if I thought I had something to gain, like getting declarer to misplace high cards. But when declarer is going to find out what you've done right away, what's the point? We all make mistakes. What if you have misanalyzed the position and not covering turns out to give away a trick? It would be hard to explain to your partner.

Here is the current position:

	NORTH Robot ♠ -- ♥ 10 8 ♦ K 7 5 ♣ --
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ -- ♥ J ♦ A J 10 6 ♣ --

Assuming my construction is correct,West has two spades and three diamonds left, and East has a spade, two diamonds, and two clubs. Against humans, I would go with the odds and hook West for the diamond queen. But the robots always assume I can see their cards. If West began with Q98x of diamonds, he will cover my jack when I lead it in case his partner has 10x. The robots don't always cover an honor with an honor, as we just saw. But they will always do so if it can't cost double-dummy and might gain. I lead the diamond jack, and West plays the three. I go up with king. East thoughtfully relieves the suspense by dropping the queen. Making five.

	NORTH Robot ♠ K 5 ♥ 10 8 7 4 3 ♦ K 7 5 ♣ 9 6 5
WEST Robot ♠ J 8 7 6 4 3 ♥ 2 ♦ 9 8 4 3 ♣ K 10		EAST Robot ♠ A 10 9 2 ♥ Q 9 ♦ Q 2 ♣ J 8 7 4 3
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ Q ♥ A K J 6 5 ♦ A J 10 6 ♣ A Q 2

Plus 450 is worth 71%. Almost everyone found the diamond queen, but some reached six hearts. Some optimistically blasting it after one heart--four hearts and some after North took South's two-club opening seriously.

I finish fourth once again (out of 995) with a score of 77%. This time it took 85% to win. I don't think I could have managed that. Even if I had guessed to bid six clubs on board two, that would have been enough only for second place.

I've scored over 75% in both of these events. Just so you know, that's not typical. My average score in robot individuals is somewhere in the low sixties. I don't know if I concentrate better when I know I'm going to write the deal up or if I've just been lucky. 

 

BBO Daylong Tournament 1 - Jun 1, 2021 - Board 7

Board 7
Both vulnerable

♠ J 9 7 2  ♥ A K 6 2  ♦ K 9  ♣ A J 5

I open one notrump, partner passes, and RHO balances with two hearts, showing hearts and a minor. The robots play double as penalty here (not my personal preference). Even so, I'm not about to double unilaterally without better heart spots, so I pass. If partner reopens with a take-out double, I will leave it in. Knowing partner isn't broke and that he has a doubleton heart (which I believe his take-out double should promise), makes defending two hearts doubled more palatable.

LHO and partner both pass, so I'm on lead against two hearts. Holding four trumps with two trump entries, I would like to find some suit to tap declarer with. Partner would not have passed one notrump with five spades, and he is unlikely to have even four when he sells out to two hearts. But he might have a long minor. Unfortunately, so does declarer. If I pick his minor to lead instead of partner's, I won't be happy. So I settle for leading the spade deuce. Spades rates to be dummy's best suit, but maybe it's not a very good suit.

	NORTH Robot ♠ K 10 8 5 ♥ J 3 ♦ J 8 7 5 ♣ Q 9 8
WEST Phillip ♠ J 9 7 2 ♥ A K 6 2 ♦ K 9 ♣ A J 5

West	North	East	South
Phillip	Robot	Robot	Robot
1 NT	Pass	Pass	2 ♥
(All pass)

Declarer plays the eight from dummy, partner plays the queen, and declarer wins with the ace. The play of the spade eight from dummy as well as partner's selling to two hearts suggests declarer has another spade. So declarer's likeliest shapes are 2-x-y-2 or 2-x-2-y, with 5-4 one way or the other in his two suits.

Declarer leads the five of hearts to dummy's jack, as I play the deuce and partner plays the four. Let's see if he uses dummy's entry to take a diamond finesse. If not, then he probably doesn't have ace-queen of diamonds. He doesn't play a diamond. He plays a second heart to his queen as partner discards the club deuce. I win the king. This is the position:

	NORTH Robot ♠ K 10 5 ♥ -- ♦ J 8 7 5 ♣ Q 9 8
WEST Phillip ♠ J 9 7 ♥ A 6 ♦ K 9 ♣ A J 5

West	North	East	South
Phillip	Robot	Robot	Robot
1 NT	Pass	Pass	2 ♥
(All pass)

So declarer has six hearts and a four-card minor? Partner's club deuce suggests he has five clubs. He would tend to discard from his long suit, and he likes to discard count cards. That gives declarer 1-6-4-2. If declarer had two small clubs, he would have pitched on on the spade king (in which case I would regret having ducked the heart), so I know declarer has the club king. That means the only card partner can have is the ace or queen of diamonds, and he doesn't necessarily have either one. My inference about declarer's not using dummy's entry to take a diamond finesse isn't valid if declarer has everything. He knows the diamond finesse can't work. Could partner have both honors? I don't think so. He would not have sold to two hearts with four spades and a singleton heart unless he was virtually broke.

Before I commit to this construction, let me consider the possibility that partner didn't pitch from his long suit, that he has three small clubs instead. That gives him 4-1-5-3 and declarer 1-6-2-4. No. Declarer would have pitched a diamond loser on the spade king with that hand. His long minor has to be diamonds. 

So I know the whole layout except for which diamond honors declarer has. Let's consider each case:

(1) Declarer has both the ace and queen. In that case, all we can do is take two hearts, a club, and one diamond. Four tricks. There is nothing for the defense to do except to defend passively and wait to score my diamond king. Well, almost nothing. If declarer leads a low club toward dummy, I must hop, else he can win in dummy and pitch his club king on the spade king.

(2) Declarer has only the queen. Now we can take two more tricks, the diamond ace and a ruff, for down one. But that requires me to lead the diamond king at some point--either now or when I get in with the heart ace--losing a trick if declarer has ace-queen. If I thought I needed to beat this for a good score, I would go for the ruff. But this seems like a normal contract, so I just want to take the percentage action, whatever I decide that is.

(3) Declarer has only the ace. Now it gets complicated. Let's say I try a passive defense. I cash my ace of hearts and exit with a heart. Declarer leads a low club toward dummy. As observed earlier, I must hop and exit with a club. Declarer wins in his hand and cashes the diamond ace. Now I must unblock. If I don't, declarer tosses me in with a diamond and I have to give him two tricks in dummy to discard his remaining diamonds on. Unblocking breaks even if partner has just the queen, but it gains a trick if partner has queen-ten. (And, of course, it costs a trick when declarer has ace-queen.)

If I'm going to unblock in that scenario, I might as well lead the diamond king myself, getting my ruff when partner has the ace. Leading the diamond king myself has one other way to gain as well: Declarer might have ace-ten and fail to duck. Now when I'm in with my heart ace, I can get a diamond ruff.

All in all, shifting to the diamond king looks pretty good. It gains when partner has the ace or queen-ten or when he has just the queen and declarer fails to duck. Defending passively works when when declarer has ace-queen. So shifting to the king wins in more cases.

Can I postpone my decision? Suppose I play ace and a club. Declarer wins and plays a heart. I take my ace and I'm at the crossroads.  I've missed my chance for the swindle when declarer has ace-ten. But maybe the information I've gained will help me do the right thing. If so, giving up on the swindle may be a good investment. What will I learn on this line? Partner will have a chance to discard when I win the heart ace. If partner has ace third or queen-ten third, he can't afford to pitch a diamond, since that will blow a trick. So if he pitches a diamond, I have no choice but to defend passively, exiting with a trump.

A thoughtful human would pitch a diamond from three small to force me to defend passively. My robot partner might not do that, but it can't hurt to give him the chance. If he has ace third or queen-ten third, he won't pitch a diamond. If he has three small, he might. So his failure to pitch a diamond increases the odds that shifting to the diamond king is correct. In essence, it's a restricted choice play.

I cash the club ace--eight--six--four. Partner played his middle club spot, whatever that means. Now jack of clubs--nine--three--king. Declarer plays the heart eight. I take my ace. Dummy discards the spade five, and partner plays the diamond deuce. Yay! Thanks, partner. That solves my problem. I exit with a heart and eventually score a diamond trick for minus 140.

	NORTH Robot ♠ K 10 8 5 ♥ J 3 ♦ J 8 7 5 ♣ Q 9 8
WEST Phillip ♠ J 9 7 2 ♥ A K 6 2 ♦ K 9 ♣ A J 5		EAST Robot ♠ Q 6 4 3 ♥ 4 ♦ 10 3 2 ♣ 10 7 6 3 2
	SOUTH Robot ♠ A ♥ Q 10 9 8 7 5 ♦ A Q 6 4 ♣ K 4

94%. Most declarers made four after the defense blew a trick in a variety of ways. Sometimes they lost the diamond king; sometimes, the club ace. Two Wests chose to double two hearts, rendering their defense immaterial. 94% seems like a lot for what is nothing more than a par result. But the deal is tricky, especially if you don't draw the right inferences early. Partner's club deuce and declarer's declining to take a pitch on dummy's spade king were very revealing. After trick three, we knew the whole hand except for the location of the diamond honors. And there were still a lot of variations to consider. Imagine how many variations we would have to worry about if we hadn't drawn the inference that declarer had king doubleton of clubs.

So far as partner's helping me out in the endgame goes, I'm sure there are some players who would try to tell partner what they had in diamonds by some fancy suit-preference sequence when he plays ace and another club. I haven't the slightest clue what any sequence of plays means here, though I'm sure I would find out what partner thinks in the post mortem. Elaborate suit-preference schemes never make any sense to me. It all seems too ad hoc. Simply pitching a diamond when you have nothing in the suit, thereby forcing partner to do the right thing, makes more sense. If partner can count on you to do that, then not pitching a diamonds means you can't afford to. Conveying information by the logic of your plays is always clearer than any method of signaling.

Declarer's spade eight at trick one was a good play, by the way. It located a spade honor and briefly created the illusion that declarer had a doubleton spade. Had declarer played low from dummy, I would have known that his spade ace was a singleton. As a result of this illusion, I didn't even think about hopping with a heart honor at trick two to stop a club pitch. Fortunately, I didn't need to do that. I doubt the robot played the eight for the right reason. It was probably just a random choice. But a good random choice nonetheless.