Zenith Daylong - Oct 14, 2021 - Board 6

Board 6
Opponents vulnerable

♠ A Q J 10 5  ♥ Q J 9  ♦ 9 8  ♣ 9 7 6

RHO passes. Most daylong tournaments on BBO are best-hand tournaments, which means that when you hold ten HCP, everyone else holds ten HCP also. This has two implications: (1) If you pass, the hand is likely to be passed out.  (2) If you open and buy the contract, you rate to do quite well in the play, since you will be able to place the high cards accurately--even down to jacks. So with a balanced ten-count it makes sense to open, then to pass partner's response even if it's forcing. You aren't concerned about getting to the best contract, since, with many tables passing the board out, any plus score rates to be a good result. None of this applies when you hold 11 HCP. So, in a best-hand tournament, I would open one spade with this hand but would pass if you gave me another jack.

Zenith Daylongs, however, are not best-hand tournaments, so I pass. LHO opens with one diamond. Partner passes, and RHO bids one heart. 

I could bid two spades to apply a little pressure. This is the right vulnerability to step out a little, and the fact that I didn't open with a weak two-bid should serve as a warning to partner not to take me too seriously. But this partner won't draw that inference. If I bid two spades and catch partner with good support, he will probably take me too high. So I content myself with a pusillanimous one spade. 

LHO doubles, showing three-card heart support, and partner bids three spades, weak. RHO passes. The opponents might have a game somewhere, but with a flat hand including queen-jack-nine in their suit, four spades rates to be expensive. I pass, and LHO bids four hearts. Partner and RHO pass.

Since West has only three hearts, he doesn't know that four hearts is a viable contract. So he will usually double if he wants to compete, offering his partner the option of defending. Bidding four hearts instead, therefore, shows extra shape, a hand where West has no interest in defending. Usually he will have at least six diamonds, although he might be 0-3-5-5. If responder doesn't want to play four hearts, he can correct to five diamonds or punt with four notrump to leave open the possibility of playing five clubs.

How much of this do the robots know? I suspect West knows enough to double if he is bidding on high cards rather than on shape. But I doubt if East knows enough to draw that inference. So I can't read much into his pass.

What should I lead? Dummy is probably short in spades, so I see no reason not to lead the spade ace. Even if I set up the king in declarer's hand, it's a trick he could ruff or pitch on diamonds anyway. And my ace might go away if I don't cash it. I lead the ace of spades. Dummy is a surprise:

	NORTH Robot ♠ K 3 ♥ A 5 3 ♦ A K J 3 ♣ K J 3 2
WEST Phillip ♠ A Q J 10 5 ♥ Q J 9 ♦ 9 8 ♣ 9 7 6

West	North	East	South
Phillip	Robot	Robot	Robot
			Pass
Pass	1 ♦	Pass	1 ♥
1 ♠	Double	3 ♠	Pass
Pass	4 ♥	(All pass)

I guess I was wrong. West didn't know enough to double with this hand.

Dummy plays low, partner plays the four; declarer, the deuce. Some would play suit preference here, since there are no more tricks to be had in spades. But that makes no sense to me. What is partner supposed to do if he wants me to continue spades as a passive defense? I believe in always playing attitude at trick one unless you are known to have a six-card suit (in which case, a three-way signal is readable). In a situation like this, partner encourages in spades if he wants a passive defense and discourages if he wants a shift. It's up to you to figure out which shift makes sense.

Opposite this partner, I'm on my own. I need to decide for myself whether to defend passively or to shift and, if so, which suit to shift to. Does either shift makes sense? If partner has the ace-queen of clubs, could it be necessary to cash them? If declarer is 1-2 in the black suits, yes. But is that possible? If partner has five spades and ace-queen of clubs, he probably wouldn't be making a pre-emptive raise. So I'm not worried about a pitch on the spade king. Could declarer pitch clubs on dummy's diamonds? If he is 2-6-3-2 or 2-6-2-3, that's possible. But I will gain the lead in hearts in time make the switch. It doesn't appear that an immediate club switch can be necessary.

How about a diamond shift? If partner has the diamond queen, do I need to shift to diamonds to score it? Let's try constructing a hand for declarer where that's the case. How about

♠ x x  ♥ K 10 x x x  ♦ x x x  ♣ Q x x?

Left to his own devices, declarer can pitch a diamond on dummy's long club. What happens if I switch to a diamond? Declarer simply cashes two top trumps, then knocks out partner's club ace. We can't stop the pitch. What if I drop an honor when declarer cashes the heart ace? Maybe he will finesse, fearing four hearts in partner's hand. Then I can play a second diamond before partner's club ace is dislodged.

It's worth a shot. Do I switch to the diamond nine or the eight? It should make no difference. I don't need to be honest here, so a good declarer should pay no attention to which card I lead. But if declarer is the type to pay attention, leading the nine is probably better. Most defenders would lead a "tricky" nine from queen-nine third. It's a good idea to lead the same way whether you have the queen or not. I lead the nine. Declarer rises with the ace, partner drops the seven, and declarer plays the five.

Now ace of hearts--eight--deuce. I play the jack, as planned. Declarer plays the heart three--six--ten--jack. Good. Exactly what I was hoping for. I shift to the diamond eight. Declarer rises with the king and partner drops the queen. 

So declarer had five diamonds. That makes him 2-5-5-1 or 2-4-5-2. Declarer leads the heart five, and partner follows with the four. So declarer is 2-4-5-2. If he has the club ace, he has the rest. If partner has it, we have one or two club tricks coming to us. Declarer has it. Making five.

	NORTH Robot ♠ K 3 ♥ A 5 3 ♦ A K J 3 ♣ K J 3 2
WEST Phillip ♠ A Q J 10 5 ♥ Q J 9 ♦ 9 8 ♣ 9 7 6		EAST Robot ♠ 9 8 6 4 ♥ 8 6 4 ♦ Q 7 ♣ Q 10 5 4
	SOUTH Robot ♠ 7 2 ♥ K 10 7 2 ♦ 10 6 5 4 2 ♣ A 8

32%. What did I do wrong? Did some defenders find a way to talk declarer into the diamond finesse? No. I lost the board in the auction. Some Wests saved in four spades over four hearts. Since this was going down five, it would seem like a bad idea. But the opponents chose to bid five diamonds rather than double, scoring 600. I can't worry about such things. I judged four spades was going for more than their game, and I was right. And for North to work out to double four spades with a hand where he should have doubled three doesn't seem all that hard. Sometimes you're destined to get a poor result. 

Zenith Daylong - Oct 14, 2021 - Board 5

Board 5
Our side vulnerable

♠ Q 4 2  ♥ J 9 7 4  ♦ J 8 6  ♣ 9 8 3

Partner opens one diamond, and RHO bids one spade. I pass, LHO bids two clubs, and partner doubles. The tooltip says the double is take-out, showing four or more cards in each red suit. RHO raises to three clubs. 

We do have a double fit. But I wasn't responding to partner's opening bid, and my hand has gotten worse after the one spade overcall. So I doubt it's right to compete. I pass, as does LHO. Partner hasn't had enough yet. He balances with three diamonds, presumably showing a six-card suit. If we assume the opponents would have found their eight-card spade fit, then partner has three spades, making him 3-4-6-0. That's possible. But it's more likely he's 2-4-6-1 and RHO chose to raise clubs rather than rebid his six-card spade suit.

RHO passes. Should I correct to three hearts? Even though the tooltip said the double shows four hearts, I doubt that's a firm promise. And even if partner does have four hearts, diamonds could play better. Taking club taps in partner's hand could prove awkward in hearts. Since my main goal in a competitive auction is to go plus, I want to play the safer contract. Trying to collect 140 instead of 110 is aiming for a narrow target. 

I pass. LHO passes also. West leads the king of hearts.

	NORTH Phillip ♠ Q 4 2 ♥ J 9 7 4 ♦ J 8 6 ♣ 9 8 3
	SOUTH Robot ♠ A 10 3 ♥ A 10 2 ♦ K 9 5 3 2 ♣ A K

West	North	East	South
Robot	Phillip	Robot	Robot
			1 ♦
1 ♠	Pass	2 ♣	Double
3 ♣	Pass	Pass	3 ♦
(All pass)

Wow! That's some three diamond bid, partner! I think I would have taken my chances on beating three clubs.

West wouldn't be leading from king-queen third into declarer's second suit, so the lead must be from king-queen doubleton. Frankly, that's a strange choice also. If you don't lead hearts, you may win two finesses. But the robots assume declarer is double dummy. Since they assume declarer is always dropping one of their honors, why not need the suit and try for a ruff?

Clubs have to be 3-5. That makes West either 5-2-3-3 or 6-2-2-3. If he has the spade king, that leaves East with queen-jack of clubs. East needs the diamond ace also to have his two club bid. 

I'm losing a heart and a spade. I need to hold my diamond losers to two, which means I need to play the suit to avoid either a heart ruff on my left or a spade ruff on my right. Trying to reach dummy in spades to lead up to my diamond king is pointless. I'll just open myself up to a spade ruff. So I need to lead diamonds from my hand.

Since I assume the diamond ace is on my right, I have four cases to consider: East can have (A) AQx, (B) AQ, (C) Axx, or (D) Ax.

With (A), East can win the first trump and shift to a spade, then win the second trump and reach his partner with the queen of hearts for a spade ruff. With (B), he can win the first trump and play a heart, then win the second trump and give his partner a heart ruff. So (A) and (B) are lost causes. (C) and (D) are the only holdings I need to consider.

Let's consider (C) first. I can play the king or I can play low. If I play the king, East wins, shifts to spade, and gets a ruff. If I play low, West will probably hop with the queen. Since he can't play spades from his side, there is no way for East to take a spade ruff. And since West doesn't have a third trump, there is no way for him to take a heart ruff. What if West ducks instead? Ducking would be a poor play with queen-ten doubleton, but with queen-small it might work. East wins and shifts to a spade. I can lead the king next to smother the queen. But then East can play a heart to his partner for a spade ruff. Yes. Ducking with queen-small beats me.

What about (D)? If I lead low, he can hop, cash his heart queen, and eventually get a heart ruff. But if I lead the king, there is nothing the opponents can do. East can't get a spade ruff with only two trumps, and West can't get a heart ruff, because the hearts are blocked.

In summary, I want to lead low in case (C) (although, unless West has queen-ten, this won't work against best defense) and I want to lead the king in case (D). One might conclude I should lead the king, taking my best legitimate chance. But errors are part of the game. If I think West is unlikely to find the duck with queen doubleton--and I do--I need to decide which layout is more likely.

Can West have

♠ K J x x x  ♥ K Q  ♦ Q x x  ♣ x x x ?

That doesn't look like much of a three-club bid over South's double. With six spades and a doubleton diamond, the raise looks more attractive.

How about East's two-club advance? Is he more apt to have

♠ x  ♥ x x x x  ♦ A x x  ♣ Q J x x x

or

♠ x x  ♥ x x x x  ♦ A x  ♣ Q J x x x?

Personally, I prefer the latter hand. It's better to hold a doubleton in partner's suit than a singleton. But I doubt the robots think that way. To them, any singleton is better than a doubleton. 

So the auction suggests West is more likely to have a doubleton diamond. Perhaps I'm not giving the robots enough credit. But I think West is unlikely to duck with queen doubleton, so I'm going to back my judgement and play a small diamond from my hand.

I still haven't played to trick one yet. I play a low heart from dummy and East plays the five. I take my ace and lead the diamond deuce, West plays the seven. If West did find the duck with queen doubleton, I'm down. So I have to assume he has something else. What layout do I need now? If East has three diamonds, he's getting a spade ruff, so I have to play West for three diamonds. If they include the ten, all I have to do is insert the eight. I lose two top diamonds, and there is no ruff because hearts are blocked.

I play the eight. East wins with the ten, then surprises me by cashing the heart queen. Really? West found a heart lead from king doubleton? I play the deuce, and West pitches the nine of spades. I see. A singleton. So East had five hearts. That hadn't occurred to me. He must be 1-5-2-5 and, for some reason, chose to bid clubs rather than hearts over one spade.

East continues with the eight of hearts and West ruffs with the diamond four. He switches to the club six--three--queen--ace. Diamonds should be splitting now. I lead the diamond three--ace--six--queen. I was wrong about the diamond ace. But that's because I wasn't expecting East to have the heart queen. West exits with the club jack--eight--seven--king. 

Here is the current position:

	NORTH Phillip ♠ Q 4 2 ♥ J ♦ J ♣ 9
	SOUTH Robot ♠ A 10 3 ♥ -- ♦ K 9 5 ♣ --

Is there any possibility of taking the rest? I can pitch a spade on dummy's jack of hearts. If West has the club ten, dummy's nine is a threat only he guards. And since East has a stiff spade, West holds the only spade guard also. If I could cash my tricks ending in dummy, I would have him in a squeeze. Unfortunately I can't. That's too bad. If West actually has the club ten, they went out of their way to isolate the guard in his hand. It's only fair I should be allowed to punish them for it.

My only chance is a pseudo-squeeze. This can't possibly work, since West knows I have no clubs left. But it doesn't hurt to try.

I play a diamond to dummy and pitch the spade ten on the jack of hearts. I can't return to my hand with a club ruff, since I need for West to believe, against all evidence to the contrary, that I have a club left. So I play a spade to my ace and cash the last two trumps. West, of course, discards the club ten and holds the spade king. Down one.

	NORTH Phillip ♠ Q 4 2 ♥ J 9 7 4 ♦ J 8 6 ♣ 9 8 3
WEST Robot ♠ K 9 8 7 6 5 ♥ K ♦ A 7 4 ♣ J 10 6		EAST Robot ♠ J ♥ Q 8 6 5 3 ♦ Q 10 ♣ Q 7 5 4 2
	SOUTH Robot ♠ A 10 3 ♥ A 10 2 ♦ K 9 5 3 2 ♣ A K

Minus 100 is worth 61%. Leading the diamond king at trick two would not have helped. But we would have gone plus if partner had sold to three clubs as he should have. At least we beat the pairs who played three hearts and went down anywhere from two to four. Correcting three diamonds to three hearts was indeed a bad idea.

The reason this result isn't better is that a few declarers managed to make three diamonds by playing for a different mistake. They led a small spade at trick two and West ducked. I would not have expected that to work. And if it doesn't work, you're down two. I'm still not sure whether I should have led a small diamond or the king at trick two. But either one seems better than trying to sneak a spade through.

Zenith Daylong - Oct 14, 2021 - Board 4

Board 4
Both vulnerable

♠ Q 10 5  ♥ 10 6  ♦ 9 7  ♣ J 10 9 7 3 2

LHO passes. Partner opens one heart in second seat, and RHO overcalls with one spade. I pass. LHO bids two hearts, showing an limit raise or better in spades, and partner passes. The robots play double here as showing good hearts. Since two hearts is a spade raise, I think it makes more sense to play double as take-out of spades, but I have no say in our partnership methods. 

RHO goes on to four spades, and everyone passes. Even though partner didn't double two hearts, I see no reason not to lead his suit. I lead the heart ten.

	NORTH Robot ♠ 8 7 2 ♥ Q 9 8 ♦ K J 6 4 2 ♣ A 8
WEST Phillip ♠ Q 10 5 ♥ 10 6 ♦ 9 7 ♣ J 10 9 7 3 2

West	North	East	South
Phillip	Robot	Robot	Robot
	Pass	1 ♥	1 ♠
Pass	2 ♥	Pass	4 ♠
(All pass)

If declarer has a minimum acceptance, we should have a decent chance of beating this. Dummy has a minimum limit raise, including three small trumps and a wasted queen in partner's suit. And the spade queen is offside. Our prospects look good. 

Note I'm thinking about the deal in very general terms. When you have the worst hand at the table, that's the best you can do. You need some clue where the high cards are before you can construct specific layouts. Still, simply asking yourself whether the hand is going to be easy or difficult to beat can be useful.

I expect declarer to cover with the queen, but he doesn't. He plays the eight, partner plays the three, and declarer wins with the ace. If declarer had just the ace of hearts, he would have covered my ten with the queen to force a second heart trick. So declarer must have both the ace and king. Since the heart queen has turned out to be a working card, our prospects aren't so good any more. Dummy is providing three cover cards plus a possible source of tricks. It's now a sound limit raise.

What does partner's heart three mean? It should be discouraging, showing tolerance for a club shift. With neither the king nor queen of clubs, partner should encourage regardless of his heart holding. But robots don't understand this, so I can make no assumption about the club suit.

Declarer cashes the spade ace, and partner drops the jack. Declarer continues with the spade six, I follow with the ten, and partner wins with the king. Falsecarding with the queen would be an error. Not only might it fool partner, but it could only help declarer. My high cards are limited, so the more high cards he can place me with, the more he knows about the deal. 

Declarer risked our drawing dummy's last trump, so he can't have a club loser he needs to ruff. Perhaps he has a singleton or doubleton, or perhaps he has king-queen third--or even queen third if he is counting on the king to be onside.

Partner shifts to the king of clubs. He apparently has the king-queen of clubs, so that's nine or ten HCP outside of diamonds. He must have the diamond queen to have his opening bid. Also, since declarer has no club honors, I now know he has at most two clubs.

Declarer plays the club six under partner's king. I play the jack, and declarer wins with dummy's ace. Declarer plays the deuce of diamonds to his ace. Partner plays the ten, and I play the nine. The important thing in a situation like this is to card the same way with 97 doubleton as you do with Q97. It doesn't matter whether you play up the line or echo, so long as you do the same thing with either holding. I prefer to echo, since sometimes partner needs count when you have a doubleton.

Declarer plays the deuce of hearts to the queen, partner following with the seven, then cashes the diamond king--eight-- three--seven. Why isn't declarer taking a diamond finesse? Couldn't partner have his opening bid without the diamond queen? He could have my spade queen, after all. Actually, he couldn't. If he did, he would have drawn dummy's last trump before shifting to the club king. But robots don't draw inferences like that. So, from declarer's perspective, it's possible the diamond queen is onside.

Could declarer have a doubleton diamond? That would give him 5-3-2-3. But I already decided he couldn't have three clubs, so that's impossible. For whatever reason, he's convinced the diamond queen is on his right.

Declarer plays dummy's club. Partner wins with the queen as declarer follows with the five. Partner plays the four of hearts to declarer's king. I can't afford to ruff this, since I would then have to give declarer a ruff-sluff. I pitch the three of clubs. Declarer continues with a spade. I win and tap him with a club. Partner has to score his diamond queen for down one.

	NORTH Robot ♠ 8 7 2 ♥ Q 9 8 ♦ K J 6 4 2 ♣ A 8
WEST Phillip ♠ Q 10 5 ♥ 10 6 ♦ 9 7 ♣ J 10 9 7 3 2		EAST Robot ♠ K J ♥ J 7 5 4 3 ♦ Q 10 8 ♣ K Q 4
	SOUTH Robot ♠ A 9 6 4 3 ♥ A K 2 ♦ A 5 3 ♣ 6 5

On a bad day, I might have let declarer make this. If I hadn't drawn the inference early on that declarer couldn't have three clubs, I might have been persuaded by his failure to take the diamond finesse that he was 5-3-2-3. Then, in the end position, I would think it didn't matter whether I ruffed the heart or not and might randomly choose to ruff. Of course, I shouldn't. Anytime it doesn't matter what you do when your construction is correct, you should assume it's incorrect and find some scenario where it does matter. Ruffing can never gain, and not ruffing might. So if I followed that rule, I would pitch. But it's a surprisingly easy rule to forget. Maintaining concentration at all times is difficult. When you think you know the layout, it's tempting to relax.

Nine out of 32 defenders did relax and ruffed in that position, letting the game make. So plus 100 is worth 66%.

Zenith Daylong - Oct 14, 2021 - Board 3

Board 3
Opponents vulnerable

♠ Q J 8  ♥ K Q J  ♦ K 10 7 2  ♣ 10 8 4

I have 12 HCP but no aces, and KQJ tight of hearts is hardly worth a full six points. This doesn't look like an opening bid to me.

I actually open a lot of hands others don't. But I pay more attention to playing strength than to high-card points. I once opened one heart and rebid three hearts with a hand that was opened with a weak two-bid at the other table. (We reached a good slam they missed.) Another time, the auction went one club--all pass, and, when my opponent tabled the dummy, I remarked that I would have opened one spade with her hand. (They went in down in one club, cold for four spades.) This hand, however, has little to recommend it. Two honor tricks. Three and a half playing tricks. It doesn't measure up to an opening bid by any standard other than blindly counting high-card points.

I pass. LHO opens one club, and the opponents have the auction to themselves:

West	North	East	South
Robot	Robot	Phillip	Robot
		Pass	1 ♣
Pass	1 ♦	Pass	1 ♥
Pass	1 ♠	Pass	1 NT
Pass	2 ♥	Pass	4 ♥
(All pass)

One spade was an artificial game force. Otherwise, the auction was natural. Partner leads the four of diamonds.

	NORTH Robot ♠ 4 3 2 ♥ A 8 7 ♦ A J 9 8 6 ♣ A 6
		EAST Phillip ♠ Q J 8 ♥ K Q J ♦ K 10 7 2 ♣ 10 8 4

Dummy is a surprise. I would have just raised one notrump to three. This doesn't look like the time to be looking for a four-three heart fit, especially when partner doesn't know that's what you're doing. Partner has no reason to believe you don't have the four-card heart support your two-heart bid promises.

Leading dummy's long suit suggests a singleton. But the robots hate aggressive leads. It's possible partner is leading a doubleton diamond because his spades are headed by an honor. I think it's safe to assume that if partner has led a doubleton diamond, he has either the ace or king of spades. Declarer plays low from dummy, I win with the king, and declarer plays the five. Since the three is outstanding, I'm still not sure whether partner has a singleton or not.

If partner does have a singleton, there is no rush to giving him a ruff. Since he has three trumps, I can always give him a ruff upon winning the second round of trumps. And, since I have no entry outside trumps, I can never give him two ruffs. If he has a doubleton, however, it might be necessary to return a diamond now, so I can give him an overruff when I win my trump trick.

Let's give declarer,

♠ A x  ♥ x x x x  ♦ Q x  ♣ K Q J x x.

Say I continue a diamond. Declarer wins and ducks a trump. Playing a third diamond beats him if partner has the heart ten. But if declarer has it, he can ruff high, concede a trump, and claim, losing two trump tricks and the diamond king. What happens if I play a spade instead of a third diamond? Declarer has no way to draw partner's trumps and take a pitch. Either he loses a spade trick or he concedes a ruff. So he's down one.

On that layout, I must switch to a spade at some point, but it's not necessary to switch just yet. Is there some hand where I must switch to a spade now? Suppose declarer has the same hand with the spade king instead of the ace. If I play a diamond, declarer can overtake his queen with dummy's ace and pitch a spade on the jack. Partner ruffs and we get three more tricks--a spade and two trumps--for down two. If I play a spade instead, we can take two spades then play another diamond. When I get in with my trump entry, I can play a third diamond, scoring an overruff if partner has the heart ten. That's down three.

I've found a layout where a spade shift gains, and I can't think of one where a diamond continuation gains. So I play the spade queen--ace--seven--deuce. When you have led a short suit and partner shifts, I believe your card should be attitude, but it has more to do with the suit you led than the suit partner is shifting to. Discouraging suggests your lead was a singleton; encouraging suggests it wasn't. So the spade seven should say he has a doubleton diamond. Partner, of course, has his own theories about carding, and I haven't yet figured out what they are. So I'll have to work out his diamond holding on my own.

One thing you should do consistently on defense is ask yourself, "What do I expect declarer to do now?" Then, if declarer does something different, it will ring a bell. It's important to ask this question before declarer plays. Otherwise you will miss inferences.

For example, if you say to yourself, "Declarer will duck a club now, so he can ruff a club in dummy," and he doesn't, you will know there is a good chance he has no club losers to ruff. Or if you say to yourself, "Declarer is short of dummy entries, so he will use this opportunity to take a heart finesse now," and he doesn't, you will know there is good chance he doesn't have a heart finesse to take. Both of these inferences are easy to miss if you wait until declarer plays to try to construct the layout. What declarer chooses to do tends to look normal once you've seen him do it.

What do I expect declarer to do now? If he began with queen doubleton of diamonds, I expect him to lead the queen to dummy's ace and pitch his spade loser on dummy's jack. He knows partner will ruff, but it may be with a natural trump trick.

But declarer doesn't do that. He plays the three of hearts--four--eight--jack. Why isn't he taking a pitch? Probably because he can't--because he has queen third of diamonds. So I can give partner his diamond ruff, and partner can play a spade to my queen for a second ruff. That's one diamond, one spade, two ruffs, and two trump tricks for down three. See how much easier it is to draw inferences if you anticipate declarer's plays? If I had waited until declarer ducked a trump then tried to construct the layout, it would have been much harder.

I play the diamond deuce. Declarer plays the queen, and partner follows with the three. Where did I go wrong? How can declarer be playing this way with queen doubleton of diamonds? Did I lose our spade trick by not cashing it? No. There's no need to panic.We've reached the position I envisioned above through a different order of plays. If declarer tries to take a pitch, partner scores a ruff. If he doesn't, we score a spade trick. I was focused on deciding whether partner had a singleton or doubleton diamond. But perhaps I didn't need need to worry about that. It appears a diamond return works in either case.

Declarer plays the ten of hearts--six--seven--queen. He wouldn't have played the ten without the nine, so there is no chance partner can overruff a third round of diamonds. There is nothing left to do but cash whatever spades are cashing.

It turns out no spade tricks are cashing. I play a spade; declarer ruffs. He plays a club to dummy's ace and cashes the heart ace. When trumps split, he has the rest. Making four.

	NORTH Robot ♠ 4 3 2 ♥ A 8 7 ♦ A J 9 8 6 ♣ A 6
WEST Robot ♠ K 10 9 7 6 5 ♥ 6 4 2 ♦ 4 3 ♣ 9 3		EAST Phillip ♠ Q J 8 ♥ K Q J ♦ K 10 7 2 ♣ 10 8 4
	SOUTH Robot ♠ A ♥ 10 9 5 3 ♦ Q 5 ♣ K Q J 7 5 2

So I was right that declarer couldn't take a pitch after winning the spade ace. But it wasn't because he had queen third of diamonds; it was because he had no loser to pitch. It never occurred to me declarer had a stiff spade. And rightly so. Favorable vulnerability? After a one club opening? Facing a passed hand? How many more favorable circumstances does partner need to bid two spades?

I said above that I couldn't think of a layout where a diamond return at trick two was necessary. This layout would be one if partner had the heart ten. To beat this, I would need to continue diamonds at trick two, then give partner an overruff when I get in with a trump. Even if I had continued diamonds at trick two, I have no idea how I would know to play a third one. On the layout I constructed above, a third diamond instead of a spade would cost the contract. And I think that construction is more plausible than this one. Much more plausible. Partner shouldn't have this hand. Since I was never going to find the right defense anyway, I still think my spade shift at trick two was correct.

Actually, there is another reason to shift to a spade at trick two--one that didn't occur to me at the time. Suppose I play a diamond at trick two and partner ruffs it. What does he do now? If he has the spade ace, he might be tempted to play me for the king so he can take a second ruff. After all, he has no idea my hearts are so good. It might look highly likely that I have the spade king. Shifting to the spade queen and postponing the ruff keeps partner from making that mistake.

One might expect this to be a poor result. North's strange auction worked out well, since three notrump can be held to nine tricks. Fortunately, everyone who reached three notrump bid it from the North side (after an auction that began one diamond--two clubs) and made anywhere from ten to twelve tricks when my hand failed to find a spade lead. So we score 88% for minus 620.

My decision not to open also worked out well, but it should have worked out even better. If partner bids a normal two spades over one club and I raise to three spades, we can't do any worse than minus 600. So passing gains, strangely, because it keeps the auction low enough to enable partner to bid his hand.

Zenith Daylong - Oct 14, 2021 - Board 2

Board 2
Our side vulnerable

♠ A J 8 4 2  ♥ K 8  ♦ Q 5  ♣ A J 10 6

Pass to me. Some will open one notrump with this hand. I'm happy to open one notrump offshape when I have rebid problems. But with this hand, I don't. If I open one spade and partner responds one notrump, I see no issue with rebidding two clubs. So I open one spade. 

Partner bids two hearts. I can rebid three clubs or two notrump. I would bid three clubs with the spade queen instead of the diamond queen. But with scattered values, this hand looks more like notrump than like spades-and-clubs. Furthermore, there is a variety of diamond holdings partner might have where notrump is better from my side. If I bid three clubs, I may miss my chance to bid notrump first. If I bid two notrump, on the other hand, we haven't precluded getting to a club contract. Partner can still introduce clubs over two notrump.

I bid two notrump, and partner raises to three. West leads the jack of diamonds.

	NORTH Robot ♠ K 9 ♥ A J 10 7 4 ♦ A 3 ♣ Q 5 4 2
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ A J 8 4 2 ♥ K 8 ♦ Q 5 ♣ A J 10 6

West	North	East	South
Robot	Robot	Robot	Phillip
		Pass	1 ♠
Pass	2 ♥	Pass	2 NT
Pass	3 NT	(All pass)

If partner had ace third of diamonds, I would be happy we were playing this from my side. Opposite ace doubleton, I'm not sure yet. I play low from dummy; East follows with the four and I win with the queen. Now I'm sure.

I have seven cashing tricks. I need two more. Either hearts or clubs looks promising for two additional tricks. Which one should I try first? If both finesses are working, I don't care. If one is losing, which one would I prefer to take first? If I take the club finesse and it loses, I will win the diamond return and run clubs. This might put the opponents under some pressure. Imagine West's discomfort if he holds queen fourth of hearts, for example. On the other hand, if I take the heart finesse and it loses, it's not clear they will feel the same degree of pressure when I run the heart suit. Admittedly, this is more instinct than rigorous logic. I don't have any specific plan in mind. But it looks better to take the club finesse first.

I play the spade deuce; West plays the ten. That looks like queen-ten. West is afraid I'm looking at his hand and will insert the nine. I play the king, and East follows with the three.

Should I lead the club queen or a low one? Low is better if East has a stiff king. But the queen allows me to repeat the finesse if it wins. Say I lead low to my hand and it holds. I play king of hearts and a heart to the jack. It loses and they clear diamonds. Do I risk repeating the club finesse or not? If I find myself facing that problem, I will be wishing I had led the queen.

But maybe I shouldn't worry too much about West's ducking. Ducking a trick is unattractive when you have a suit ready to establish. And if I play the jack rather then the ten, ducking will be even less attractive, since West can't be sure repeating the finesse is even an option. So I decide to guard against a stiff king by leading the deuce. East plays the three. I play the jack; West plays the seven.

Now for the heart finesse. King of hearts--six--four--nine. Eight of hearts--queen--ace--five. That makes eleven tricks. If a club to the ten holds, that makes twelve. If clubs break, that's thirteen. If they don't break, I can cash the club ace and execute a show-up squeeze, taking all the tricks if East has the spade queen or if the queen is doubleton offside.

I play the club four--eight--ten--nine. I claim. Making seven

	NORTH Robot ♠ K 9 ♥ A J 10 7 4 ♦ A 3 ♣ Q 5 4 2
WEST Robot ♠ Q 10 7 ♥ Q 6 ♦ K J 10 9 8 6 ♣ 9 7		EAST Robot ♠ 6 5 3 ♥ 9 5 3 2 ♦ 7 4 2 ♣ K 8 3
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ A J 8 4 2 ♥ K 8 ♦ Q 5 ♣ A J 10 6

62%. I beat most of the pairs who played three notrump. Some played it from the other side and didn't get the gift at trick one. Others played it from my side but got a club lead after my hand opened one notrump. The reason this result isn't better is some Souths opened one spade and rebid three clubs over two hearts, thereby reaching and making six clubs. It's hard to say whether three notrump or six clubs is the better matchpoint spot.

Note, by the way, East's play at trick one: the four from 742. That's neither count nor attitude. It appears to be random. That's what makes it hard to defend with robots. Even their trick-one plays aren't helpful.

Zenith Daylong - Oct 14, 2021 - Board 1

I recently discovered the Zenith Daylong tournaments on BBO. The BBO and ACBL Daylongs are best-hand tournaments, meaning no one at the table has more HCP than you do. This isn't true in the Zenith Daylongs. Perhaps it's more fun always to have a good hand. But sometimes having a bad hand gives you more difficult problems. When you are defending and have fewer high cards than partner, it can be hard to work out what is going on. This is especially true playing with robots, who make no effort to help you. You must work everything out by drawing inferences from declarer's play and from partner's line of defense. That's a good thing if your objective is to hone your skills.

Let's give it a try.

Board 1
Neither vulnerable

♠ --  ♥ Q 10 6  ♦ A 9 6 3 2  ♣ A J 7 4 3

Partner opens one heart. Normally, when you have two five-card suits, you bid the higher-ranking one first. That assumes, however, that you intend to bid both suits. With this hand, I intend to support hearts next. For that reason, it makes sense to start with two clubs. Partner might raise clubs or he might bid two diamonds, revealing a double fit. Starting with two diamonds could prevent us from finding a secondary club fit.

I bid two clubs; partner rebids two hearts. This is the default rebid in the robots' methods. It does not promise six. Three spades would be a possibility now if the robots played that as a splinter, but they don't. I raise to three hearts, and partner goes on to four. I pass, and West leads the diamond jack.

	NORTH Phillip ♠ -- ♥ Q 10 6 ♦ A 9 6 3 2 ♣ A J 7 4 3
	SOUTH Robot ♠ A K J ♥ K 9 8 4 3 2 ♦ Q 7 5 ♣ 5

West	North	East	South
Robot	Phillip	Robot	Robot
			1 ♥
Pass	2 ♣	Pass	2 ♥
Pass	3 ♥	Pass	4 ♥
(All pass)

If West has led a short suit, as seems likely, I want to play to minimize the chance of a diamond ruff. If East has the heart ace, it doesn't matter what I do. If West has it, I want to rise if the lead is a singleton and duck if it's a doubleton. Doubletons occur more often than singletons. Plus there is some chance West has led from king-jack-ten. So I duck.

East wins with the king, and I play the five. East returns the diamond four. Assuming this doesn't get ruffed, which hand do I want to win the trick in? I see no reason to take a finesse against the heart jack. So if either opponent has ace-jack third of hearts, I'm losing two heart tricks. If hearts are two-two, I'm losing one heart trick and, potentially, a diamond ruff. The only time my heart play matters is if someone has a stiff ace. A stiff ace in East's hand doesn't help. I'm losing the heart ace and a diamond ruff however I play the suit. But if West has a stiff ace, I want my first heart play to be from my hand. So I play the diamond queen. West plays the ten. I'm past the first hurdle. At least the lead wasn't a singleton.

Now deuce of hearts--five--queen--ace. East returns a diamond, which West ruffs with the heart seven. There is only one trump outstanding, and I can ruff my spade loser in dummy. So I have the rest. Making four.

	NORTH Phillip ♠ -- ♥ Q 10 6 ♦ A 9 6 3 2 ♣ A J 7 4 3
WEST Robot ♠ 10 7 6 5 4 3 2 ♥ 7 5 ♦ J 10 ♣ 10 2		EAST Robot ♠ Q 9 8 ♥ A J ♦ K 8 4 ♣ K Q 9 8 6
	SOUTH Robot ♠ A K J ♥ K 9 8 4 3 2 ♦ Q 7 5 ♣ 5

This result is worth a mere 39%. And for a weird reason. If I respond two diamonds instead of two clubs, West chooses a club lead, and I make five.

It's annoying to get a below-average board for a completely random reason. Some would claim I got what I deserved. Two clubs was anti-field, since most players would bid the higher-ranking suit reflexively. And I should avoid anti-field actions in the auction so I can fully exploit my edge in declarer play--assuming I have one. 

I've never bought that argument. If I think bidding two diamonds has a lower expectation than bidding two clubs--and I do--why should I accept that lower expectation out of fear that it will work out poorly for some reason having nothing to do with the relative merits of the two choices? Randomness works both ways. Two club is just as likely as two diamonds to work out better for some unforeseeable reason. And it is more likely to work out better for a foreseeable reason. I believe you should simply do what you think is right and let the random effects balance themselves out in the long run.

What about my play at trick one? While it didn't matter. I'm not entirely sure I did the right thing. One possibility I didn't consider at the time is that West might have jack-ten third of diamonds. If so, and if West has the heart ace, I need to hop to block the suit. There is also some chance West led from jack-ten fourth and East has a singleton king. Finally, hopping may also save a trick if West has a singleton and East has the stiff ace of hearts. In that case, I lose two ruffs if I duck but only one if I hop. Whether those additional cases tip the scale in favor of rising with the ace is hard to say. If we assume West would never lead from king-jack-ten, then hopping looks like the better choice. The more likely he is to lead from king-jack-ten, the more attractive ducking becomes.

ACBL Daylong 1 - Jul 29, 2021 - Board 12

Board 12
Our side vulnerable

Last chance to beat the other couples.

♠ A 9 6  ♥ 7 4  ♦ K J 6 3  ♣ K 9 7 2

LHO passes, partner passes, and RHO opens one spade in third seat. I pass, LHO bids two clubs, Drury, and RHO bids two diamonds, showing a minimum but full opening bid. LHO probes with three diamonds. RHO probes right back at him with three hearts. LHO, out of probes, bids three spades, ending the auction.

The opponents have lots of high cards, but their hands apparently don't fit will. So this doesn't sound like an auction to lead aggressively against. I lead the seven of hearts.

	NORTH Robot ♠ Q 10 3 ♥ A 2 ♦ A 5 4 2 ♣ J 5 4 3
WEST Phillip ♠ A 9 6 ♥ 7 4 ♦ K J 6 3 ♣ K 9 7 2

West	North	East	South
Phillip	Robot	Robot	Robot
	Pass	Pass	1 ♠
Pass	2 ♣	Pass	2 ♦
Pass	3 ♦	Pass	3 ♥
Pass	3 ♠	(All pass)

Declarer plays low from dummy, partner wins with the king, and declarer plays the five. We might have heard from partner if he had six hearts, and declarer might have gone on to game at some point with ten major-suit cards. So I am provisionally crediting declarer with five-four in the majors.

Partner shifts to the eight of clubs, declarer plays the six, and I win with the king. I don't think partner would be shifting from the club queen with the jack in dummy. Declarer probably has ace queen and partner is leading low from a doubleton, as robots are wont to do. If so, I can give him a ruff when I'm in with the trump ace. I play the deuce of clubs--five--ten--ace. Declarer for some reason concedes the ruff himself. He cashes the club queen and partner ruffs with the seven.

By the conditions of contest, declarer can't have more HCP than I do, so he has at most 11. He has so far shown up with the queen of hearts and ace-queen of clubs for a total of 8 HCP. If he has the spade king, he can't have any other high cards. Is it possible he has both major-suit jacks instead of the spade king? It seems unlikely. For one thing, that would that give him a questionable two-diamond bid. And, more importantly, he wouldn't be playing the hand this way. If he had queen-jack of hearts, he would just draw trumps. His failure to do so suggests he has a heart loser to worry about. So I'm inclined to play him for

♠ K x x x x  ♥ Q x x x  ♦ x  ♣ A Q x

Declarer can dispose of his heart loser either by ruffing it or or by pitching it on the club jack. So our only chance for a setting trick is to score a second spade trick somehow. 

Partner shifts to the seven of diamonds--eight--jack--ace. Declarer ruffs a diamond with the spade deuce as partner contributes the diamond queen. He plays a heart to the ace, partner playing the nine, and ruffs another diamond with the spade five. This is the current position. Declarer presumably has king third of spades and queen doubleton of hearts remaining.

	NORTH Robot ♠ Q 10 3 ♥ -- ♦ 4 ♣ J
WEST Phillip ♠ A 9 6 ♥ -- ♦ K ♣ 9

Declarer leads the heart queen. It can't help to ruff this. Shortening my trumps just makes it easier for declarer to pick up partner's jack of spades. I pitch my diamond king. Declarer pitches dummy's good club. Declarer plays the heart ten. Again, my best shot at scoring partner's spade jack is to hold all my trumps, so I pitch the club nine. Declarer ruffs in dummy with the three. 

Obviously declarer will play a diamond from dummy now. When partner follows, declarer will have a complete count. He will know I have three spades left and partner has one spade and one heart. He will not know the location of the high cards, however. Partner could have the spade ace and still not have an opening bid. And the possession of the spade jack is immaterial to either of us.

So declarer will ruff the diamond with the king, leaving me with two choices: (A) I can underruff. Now declarer has to guess whether to play a spade to the ten, playing partner for a stiff ace, or a spade to the queen, playing partner for a stiff jack. (B) I can overruff with the ace and play a trump myself. Declarer then has to decide whether to finesse, playing me for AJx or to hop with the queen, playing me for Axx. 

Because I'm playing against robots, I can think about this position as long as I want. At the table, against humans, I wouldn't be able to do that without giving away that I have the ace. Fortunately, I don't need to think about it. This is a well-known position. It has been analyzed before by others, and I know what to do. 

Declarer plays dummy's diamond and ruffs with the king. I overruff with the ace and return the six. Declarer, to my surprise, rises with the queen, dropping partner's jack. Making three.

	NORTH Robot ♠ Q 10 3 ♥ A 2 ♦ A 5 4 2 ♣ J 5 4 3
WEST Phillip ♠ A 9 6 ♥ 7 4 ♦ K J 6 3 ♣ K 9 7 2		EAST Robot ♠ J 7 ♥ K J 9 6 3 ♦ Q 10 9 7 ♣ 10 8
	SOUTH Robot ♠ K 8 5 4 2 ♥ Q 10 8 5 ♦ 8 ♣ A Q 6

74%. No one beat three spades. Quite a few allowed declarer to make four (via an initial club lead for example). 

Why did I choose to overruff with the ace in the three-card end position? The first thing to note is that, if declarer plays correctly, it makes no difference what I do. Let's examine this problem from declarer's perspective to see why. He knows partner began with Ax, Jx, or xx of spades. (AJ doubleton is possible but irrelevant, so we can ignore it.) Each case is equally likely (since there are three possible spot-card combinations for each case). The way to decide what to do in such situations as this is to decide ahead of time which cases you want to pick up, then play accordingly, refusing to be deflected by anything the opponents do.

In this layout, declarer can guarantee winning in two of the three possible cases by finessing the ten at trick twelve regardless of how West defends. This works if East began with Ax or xx and fails if he began with Jx. No other strategy can do better. 

To make sure this is true, let's examine the three possible alternative strategies. Note that if East has xx or Ax, West has no choice in how to defend. He must overruff in the first case (else his jack will appear on the next round), and he must underruff perforce in the second. The only time he has a choice is when he has Axx.

Strategy A: Finesse the ten if West overruffs; play low to the queen if West underruffs. This picks up East's xx and loses to his Ax. How it fares against Jx depends on how West defends. It can't do any better than two wins out of three, and it might do worse.

Strategy B: Do the opposite. Play the queen if West overruffs; finesse the ten if West underruffs. This loses to xx and picks up Ax. Again, how it fares against Jx depends on how West defends. So, again, it can't do any better than two wins out of three, and it might do worse.

Strategy C: Always play the queen at trick twelve, regardless of what West does. This is clearly wrong, since it loses to both xx and Ax. It does pick up Jx no matter how West defends, so it wins in one case out of three.

In short, strategies A and B might tie the recommended strategy, provided you are 100% correct in your assumption of what West will do with Axx, but it can't do better and will do worse if your assumption is wrong. So it is right for declarer to finesse the ten at trick twelve regardless of how West defends.

What should I do as West? Since my play doesn't matter if declarer plays correctly, I must assume declarer will play incorrectly. I must assume there is some scenario where he will play the queen at trick twelve and must avoid that scenario. What might that scenario be? What mistake might declarer be tempted to make?

In my judgment, declarer is unlikely to play the queen if I overruff. Some declarers might reason incorrectly, "West has three spades to East's two; therefore, he is three to two to have the jack." So even if declarer doesn't know the correct play, he is still apt to make the correct play, even if it is for the wrong reason. 

If I underruff, declarer's possible faulty reasoning depends on his level. If he is naive enough not even to consider that I might underruff with ace third, he will of course lead low to the ten and be surprised when it loses to the jack. The danger comes when declarer is good enough to know that I might underruff  but not good enough to know the correct odds. Such a declarer might reason this way: "East has Jx or Ax. Each is equally likely; therefore, I have a 50-50 guess what to do on the next trick." I'll leave it to you to work out why this reasoning is wrong. In any event, if you are playing against such a declarer, underruffing runs the risk he will, by sheer chance, guess to play the queen on the next round. Therefore, I believe it is right to overruff.

Why did the robot misplay this position? I can't say. It's an error, so he must have had some kind of "blind spot." Robots appear to have different blind spots than humans.

My final score was 79.77%, which lands me in second place out of 1206, 0.3% behind first place. I would have won easily had I not misplayed board nine.