Free Weekly Instant Tournament - January 18 - Board 1

Board 1
Neither side vulnerable

♠ A J 8 6 3  ♥ A K Q 3  ♦ 10  ♣ J 10 4

Partner passes, and RHO opens with one spade. That's my primary suit, so I pass. Perhaps the auction will proceed one notrump--pass--two diamonds, in which case I can double for takeout. It doesn't. LHO bids two diamonds, and RHO bids two spades.

The opponents are now in a game force. There is no reason for me to get involved. I pass, LHO bids three hearts, and RHO bids three notrump, which ends the auction.

We have four cashing tricks. There are two ways to go after a fifth.

One possibility is to try for four heart tricks. I can lead a heart honor, hoping partner holds the jack or that he holds the ten and declarer holds a singleton or doubleton jack. If dummy's diamonds are running, this is probably our only chance to beat this contract.

Another possibility is to hope dummy's diamonds are not running. If so, then declarer can't develop diamonds or spades without giving the defense a fifth trick. In this scenario, a heart lead isn't necessary and might actually hurt. If one heart trick is all declarer needs to come to nine tricks, then a heart lead may make it easy for him. A passive club lead is safer.

Which approach offers the better chance? Partner has an average of about two and a half hearts to the opponents' six and a half. The chance of finding him with the heart jack is slim. But my stiff diamond bodes well for the possibility that partner can stop the diamond suit. If I held two or three diamonds, I would certainly lead a heart honor. But, holding the stiff ten, I think a club lead offers our best chance to beat this.

This isn't IMPs, however. Beating the contract isn't our only consideration. If partner can't stop diamonds, declarer may have ten or more tricks off the top. If that's the case, we do better to cash our four tricks.

At matchpoints, a high heart has two chances to be right: (1) It could be right to cash out to hold the overtricks. (2) I could get lucky and beat it. At IMPs, I would lead the club jack. But at matchpoints, a heart looks like a better choice.

Which heart should I lead? With a robot partner it doesn't matter, since robots don't signal at trick one. But let's indulge in a fantasy for a moment and pretend that we are playing with a real partner. Which honor will elicit a meaningful signal? Specifically, which card will get partner to encourage with jack third, so I can underlead and cash five tricks?

The standard choice from ace-king-queen is the king. But if I lead the king, partner will probably think he needs the queen to encourage. What if I lead the queen? If partner holds he jack, he will know that's the card I'm looking for and will encourage. If declarer has the jack, partner won't know I've made a funny lead and will have no clue what's going on. But it doesn't matter. He has nothing in the suit, so he will discourage.

True, the queen normally asks partner to drop the jack if he holds it. You would choose the queen from KQ109x. for example. But dummy's heart length will prevent partner from doing that. This "can-I-underlead?" signal is routine when you are sitting over dummy and need to find an entry in partner's hand. You lead king from AK, queen from AKQ; or jack from AKQJ. If partner has the honor just below the one you lead, he encourages. It's rare to make this play on opening lead, since partner usually won't be able to read it. But if the auction and dummy make it clear what's going on, as it should here, it can be the only way to find out what you need to know.

I lead the heart queen and find the following dummy:

	NORTH Robot ♠ K ♥ 10 9 4 2 ♦ A K Q J 8 7 4 ♣ 8
WEST Phillip ♠ A J 8 6 3 ♥ A K Q 3 ♦ 10 ♣ J 10 4

West	North	East	South
Phillip	Robot	Robot	Robot
		Pass	1 ♠
Pass	2 ♦	Pass	2 ♠
Pass	3 ♥	Pass	3 NT
(All pass)

Partner can't stop diamonds, so declarer will take lots of tricks when he gets in. I need to decide whether to play partner for the heart jack and try to beat this or simply to cash out.

Partner plays the heart six; declarer, the seven. Partner should have either J65, J6, or 86. If he has J65, I can underlead now or at trick three. But if he has a doubleton, I must decide now. If he has J6 I must underlead; if he has 86, I must continue cashing. It would appear to be a fifty-fifty guess. But it isn't. Even if I knew for a fact that partner had J6, it's not clear I should underlead, since partner won't know what to return. If he returns a club, I would have done better to cash out. Since an underlead loses if partner has 86 and might lose even if he has J6, the underlead is less than 50%. My best play is to cash another heart, then underlead if partner completes an echo by playing the five.

Since I have a choice of honors to cash, I can give suit preference by cashing the ace. Now partner will know which suit to return when he wins the heart jack. I cash the heart ace. Partner plays the eight; declarer, the seven. Now I know partner began with 86, so I can cash out. 

 OK. It's time to exit our fantasy and stop pretending partner is actually signaling. My robot partner could easily hold the jack. In fact, he's a slight favorite to, since declarer holds at least three more spades than partner. Should I underlead on that basis?

I still have the issue that, if I underlead, partner won't know which suit to return, since this partner won't interpret my heart ace as suit preference. Since the underlead could lose a trick even when it's right, it looks better to cash out. I cash the heart king. Unfortunately, it's partner who holds the jack. Declarer follows with the spade deuce.

My only chance to beat his now is that declarer is void in diamonds. I cash the spade ace and exit with the jack of clubs. Declarer has the rest. Making three.

	NORTH Robot ♠ K ♥ 10 9 4 2 ♦ A K Q J 8 7 4 ♣ 8
WEST Phillip ♠ A J 8 6 3 ♥ A K Q 3 ♦ 10 ♣ J 10 4		EAST Robot ♠ 7 5 ♥ J 8 6 ♦ 9 6 5 2 ♣ 9 7 5 3
	SOUTH Robot ♠ Q 10 9 4 2 ♥ 7 5 ♦ 3 ♣ A K Q 6 2

Even though we can beat this with accurate defense, holding it to three is worth 71%. Two defenders did play partner for the heart jack, but it did neither of them any good. One led the heart ace, then, at trick two, continued with a low heart. East won the jack and shifted to the club nine, so declarer made four. What was East playing for with that club shift? If declarer has both black aces, he's cold. And if partner has either one, a heart return suffices. Was he greedily playing for down two, hoping his partner had ace-queen of clubs?

The other defender led a low heart at trick one! That's a play that didn't occur to me. It does have a couple of things going for it. (1) If partner has jack doubleton, he can win and return a heart, avoiding the problem of his finding the right shift. And (2) if dummy has the jack and partner has the ten, declarer is unlikely to go up. Still, if I were going to try to beat this contract with no concern about giving up overtricks, I think a club lead offers a better chance.

West must have been quite pleased with himself when his partner won with the heart jack at trick one. And quite displeased with partner when he shifted to the club nine at trick two.

What would happen opposite a reliable partner? Weirdly, I have a much harder decision at trick two. Partner will play the heart eight on my queen, and I will know he has the jack. If he has jack third, it makes no difference what I do at trick two. So let's assume he has jack doubleton. 

Should I guarantee four tricks by cashing the ace, or should I lead a heart to his jack and hold my breath? If he returns a spade, we'll beat it. If he returns a club, they'll make an overtrick. 

As we saw earlier, if I don't know whether partner has the jack or not, underleading is anti-percentage. But now I know he has the jack, so the situation is different. I have just as much to gain as to lose by underleading. So, if it's a tossup which suit partner will return, I'm on a complete guess.

At least that's true against every table where West leads a heart. But not every West will lead a heart. Some Wests will lead the club jack. Against those tables, if I underlead and get a club shift, I convert a win into a tie. But if I underlead and get a spade shift, I gain nothing. I already had the board won against those tables just by cashing out. So, if I assume it's a tossup whether partner will do the right thing, my percentage play is to cash the heart ace, winning against the tables where West led a club and tying (on average) against the tables where West led a heart.

But is it a tossup whether partner will do the right thing? Maybe not. Partner probably knows I have more spades than clubs--or at least that my expected spade length is greater than my expected club length. So if I lead to his stiff heart jack, he should return a spade, playing me for the ace I'm more likely to hold.

While some West's will lead the club jack, I doubt many will. Most defenders will see their ace-king-queen and stop thinking. So, if we trust partner, I think the underlead is the right play.

Free Weekly Instant Tournament - December 1 - Board 8

Board 8
Neither side vulnerable

♠ Q J 7 6  ♥ A 10 8 3  ♦ K  ♣ A 10 6 5

RHO opens with two diamonds, weak, in third seat. I double for takeout, and everyone passes. This is a promising development. I have a better hand for defense than for offense. I'm especially happy to be holding the diamond king, since it may prove to be an embarrassing surprise for declarer. We may score a trick we aren't entitled to if he plays partner for this card.

The right defense must be to take whatever side-suit tricks we can, then sit back and wait for our trump tricks. I want to develop spade tricks before my aces are knocked out, so I lead the spade queen.

	NORTH Robot ♠ 9 5 4 ♥ K Q J 5 ♦ 8 3 ♣ K 8 7 2
WEST Phillip ♠ Q J 7 6 ♥ A 10 8 3 ♦ K ♣ A 10 6 5

West	North	East	South
Phillip	Robot	Robot	Robot
	Pass	Pass	2 ♦
Double	(All pass)

Dummy and I have 23 HCP combined. Declarer has at most ten, so partner has at least seven. Partner would probably have bid a four-card major or a five-card club suit in preference to passing with only four diamonds, so he is either 3-3-4-3,  3-2-4-4, or 2-3-4-4. No. I take that back. 2-3-4-4 is unlikely, since that gives declarer four spades. 

It's even more unlikely after trick one. Partner plays the spade ten and declarer wins with the king. Partner has apparently ducked with ace third to preserve communication. We would appear to have two spade tricks, two aces, and whatever we can take in the trump suit. 

Is it possible to take another trick in the side suits? We might have a second club trick if declarer is 3-1-6-3. That gives partner four hearts, which I said he can't have. But if his diamonds are good, he might have judged to pass rather than to bid two hearts with four small. Even if that's the layout, though, declarer will just play a heart at trick two and we can't get at our second club trick fast enough. 

Even if declarer has doesn't have a singleton heart, he will probably lead a heart at trick two to reach dummy for a diamond play. No. He surprises me by leading the spade deuce. I'm not sure what he's up to, but I duck to let partner win the trick. How partner chooses to continue the defense may tell me something. Partner takes the spade ace and returns the three to my jack.

If partner is 3-2-4-4, can I give him a heart ruff? Suppose I shift to a low heart. Then, whenever I get in, I can cash both aces and play a third heart. 

A low heart shift would prove embarrassing if declarer has a singleton heart. I expected him to play a heart at trick two with a singleton. But if he has no late club loser (queen-jack third of clubs, say), he has no reason to do that. So a singleton heart is still possible.

One thing to consider: Partner doesn't appear to want a heart ruff. He could have shifted to a heart himself at trick three and chose to continue spades instead. So either he doesn't have a doubleton heart or he has one but would be ruffing with a natural trump trick. So let's forget about a heart ruff.

My goal, then, is to protect whatever trump tricks we have. The way to protect our trump tricks is to prevent declarer from reaching dummy twice. There are two scenarios where this could be important: (1) Declarer needs to lead trumps twice from dummy to finesse against partner, or (2) declarer needs to ruff himself down to partner's trump length for a possible trump coup.

If declarer is two-two in hearts and clubs, I can't prevent him from reaching dummy twice. If he's three-one or one-three, perhaps I can.

I'll start by cashing my two aces. If I continue by leading declarer's singleton, he can win that trick in dummy, then later reach dummy in the other suit. If I continue by leading his three-card suit, he can't reach dummy twice. If his three-card suit is clubs, he has only one entry. If it's hearts, partner will ruff the third round.

So which suit is more likely to be his singleton? If he has a singleton heart, he must have good clubs, else, as I've already noted, he would have led a heart at trick two to set up discards. If he has a singleton club, there is no further constraint on his hand. So a singleton club is more likely. My best defense is to cash two aces, then play a heart.

I cash the club ace. Partner plays the three; declarer, the nine. Now the heart ace. Partner plays the deuce; declarer, the seven. We've reached this position:

	NORTH Robot ♠ -- ♥ K Q J ♦ 8 3 ♣ K 8 7
WEST Phillip ♠ 7 ♥ 10 8 3 ♦ K ♣ 10 6 5

I lead the three of hearts. Six from partner; nine from declarer. Declarer plays the three of diamonds from dummy--deuce--queen--king.

I exit with a third heart. Declarer wins in dummy and pitches the club queen. Declarer was two-two in the round suits, so he always had two dummy entries. Now he leads the eight of diamond from dummy and floats it. It wins, but declarer is now trump tight. He must ruff the next trick and lead from his hand. Partner has the ace-ten of diamonds left, so declarer is down two.

	NORTH Robot ♠ 9 5 4 ♥ K Q J 5 ♦ 8 3 ♣ K 8 7 2
WEST Phillip ♠ Q J 7 6 ♥ A 10 8 3 ♦ K ♣ A 10 6 5		EAST Robot ♠ A 10 3 ♥ 6 4 2 ♦ A 10 4 2 ♣ J 4 3
	SOUTH Robot ♠ K 8 2 ♥ 9 7 ♦ Q J 9 7 6 5 ♣ Q 9

Declarer should have held this to down one by taking a first-round finesse against the diamond ten. Diamonds must be four-one, and I'm twice as likely to have a stiff ace or king as a stiff ten. Having failed to do that, finessing the diamond on the next round was an error. There is no longer anything he can do about four-one trumps. So his percentage play is to lead to the jack, hoping I had king-ten doubleton.

This is another flaw in how the robots are programmed. South "knows" East has ace-ten third of diamonds left, so he thinks it doesn't matter how he plays the diamond suit. He presumably picks a line at random. But you should never assume your play doesn't matter. If you think it does, relax your assumptions. Find some layout, even one you think is impossible, where your play does matter. If you're correct and it doesn't matter, what have you lost?

To be fair, I've been guilty of this mistake myself. Playing bridge is all about making deductions, and it can be easy to forget that something you think you know is merely a deduction. But at least we humans know it's a mistake and try to avoid it. The robots don't.

Some declarers did hold this to down one, but that was because West made it easy for them by leading the diamond king. I don't understand that lead at all. Why squander your best defensive asset? You don't expect dummy to be getting any ruffs, so what's the point of leading trumps? It must be better to hope to capture some card in declarer's hand than to cash the king at trick one and catch air. Thanks to those opening leads, plus 200 scored 96%.

I said earlier that it might be right to prevent declarer from reaching dummy twice to stop a trump coup against partner. Is there some layout where that's necessary? I didn't construct one at the time. Let's see if we can find one now. There are probably several. But one will suffice:

	NORTH Robot ♠ -- ♥ K Q J ♦ 8 3 ♣ K 8 7
WEST Phillip ♠ 7 ♥ 10 8 3 ♦ K ♣ 10 6 5		EAST Robot ♠ -- ♥ 6 ♦ Q J 9 2 ♣ Q J 4
	SOUTH Robot ♠ -- ♥ 9 4 ♦ A 10 7 6 5 3 ♣ --

If I exit with a club, declarer wins the king, pitching a heart, ruffs a club, plays a heart to dummy, and scores another ruff. Now he exits with a low diamond to my king. His last three cards are ace-ten third of diamonds; partner's are queen-jack-nine of diamonds. With me on lead, partner can take only one more trump trick. A spade exit will lead to the same position on a different sequence of plays. But if I exit with a heart, declarer can't score two ruffs, so this end position doesn't materialize and we score three trump tricks. 

In accordance with Gargoyle Chronicles principles, I omitted this analysis in the discussion of the play, since I didn't construct this layout at the time. I was defending on general principles. As a rule, I don't like to defend on general principles. It's better to construct a layout where your contemplated play gains, since general principles can sometimes lead you astray. Here, however, there was no need, since there was no sensible alternative line to consider. Either I let declarer trump coup partner or I don't. Even if there is no holding where a coup actually works, it's hard to see how preventing the position from arising can ever hurt.

Next week I'll start a series on this week's Weekly Free Instant Tournament. If you want to compare results, be sure to play in the tournament by this Thursday, January 25. 

Free Weekly Instant Tournament - December 1 - Board 7

Board 7
Both sides vulnerable

♠ J 10 5  ♥ A 7 5  ♦ A K 10 6  ♣ K J 3

I open with one notrump in first seat and everyone passes. LHO leads the four of diamonds.

	NORTH Robot ♠ 8 7 4 3 ♥ K J 3 2 ♦ J ♣ Q 10 9 7
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ J 10 5 ♥ A 7 5 ♦ A K 10 6 ♣ K J 3

West	North	East	South
Robot	Robot	Robot	Phillip
			1 NT
(All pass)

I have three diamond tricks, three clubs once I knock out the ace, and two hearts. Eight tricks. When the opponents take the club ace, they will have spade winners to cash. If they can cash four of them, they can hold me to eight tricks. If they can't, I can try a heart finesse for a ninth. If spades are three-three, it's possible I can set up my fourth spade for a ninth trick. But it seems unlikely I will have the tempo to do that. The opponents can probably establish a fifth trick in diamonds before the long spade is established.

I play the diamond jack from dummy and RHO covers with the queen. If I held the ace without the king, I would sometimes duck. I would almost never duck holding the king without the ace. So the ace is a more revealing card. Accordingly, I win with the king.

The three and deuce of diamonds are still out. If the lead is low, West could have anywhere from three to six diamonds.

I want the opponents to take the club ace early to give me some flexibility. Leading the club king is the likeliest way to achieve that. If LHO has ace third, he may be afraid to duck for fear his partner has jack third and I will somehow figure that out.

I lead the club king--deuce--seven--five. That didn't work. Now what? If I lead the jack to the queen, they will probably duck again. But if I lead low to the nine, East might win with an original holding of ace third for fear his partner started with jack fourth.

I play the club three--eight--nine--four of hearts.

So West started with five clubs. East is probably pitching lowest from a five-card suit, so West has a stiff heart. His most likely patterns are 4-1-3-5, 3-1-4-5, and 2-1-5-5.

I continue with a low club to my jack. East pitches the diamond deuce. West takes the ace and shifts to the nine of spades. East wins with the king, and I drop the ten, the card I'm known to hold. Here is the current position with East on lead:

	NORTH Robot ♠ 8 7 4 ♥ K J 3 2 ♦ -- ♣ Q
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ J 5 ♥ A 7 5 ♦ A 10 6 ♣ --

If East's spade king is honest, then West has the queen. I doubt West would lead low from queen-nine doubleton or that he would squander the nine from queen-nine fourth. So if he has the queen, he must have queen-nine third. It's possible, however, that East has false carded. I haven't seen the robots play high from equals at trick one. But I have seen them do so in the middle of the hand.

West shifts to the seven of diamonds. I take the ace, and West follows with the five. The three is still out, so I'm still not sure of the diamond count.

If East did falsecard from ace-king-queen of spades, perhaps I can endplay him. I can cash the diamond ten, lead a heart to dummy's king, and cash the club queen, squeezing East out of his long spade if he started with four. This will be the position:

	NORTH Robot ♠ 8 ♥ J 3 2 ♦ -- ♣ --
		EAST Robot ♠ A Q ♥ Q x ♦ -- ♣ --
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ J 5 ♥ A 7 ♦ -- ♣ --

Now I can toss East in with a spade.

Back to the previous diagram. East has led a diamond to my ace. I pitch a spade from dummy, then cash the diamond ten, pitching another spade. LHO follows with the eight, East with the three. Now that East has shown up with four diamonds, I know the count. West was 3-1-4-5, leaving East with 3-5-4-1. East's remaining cards are

♠ A ?  ♥ Q 10 x x  ♦ --  ♣ --

If that spade '?' is the queen, I can lead a heart to the king and exit with a spade. Cashing the club queen in this layout would be a mistake. If West has the spade queen, the defense could then take the rest, and I would lose the heart ace.

But would East really have pitched this way with ace-king-queen of spades? He could surely see the endplay coming. Why pitch his diamond exit on the third round of clubs? He would have pitched another heart instead.

If the endplay isn't working, is there anything I can do? I don't see a legitimate line. But maybe they'll get tangled up in the end position. It's hard to see how. But the robots don't signal, and they don't draw inferences. It's easy to misdefend under those conditions. I'm fairly sure West has the spade queen. So hoping for a mistake looks like my best shot.

I lead the five of hearts--nine--king--six. Now the club queen--heart ten--diamond six--club six. Now a heart back to the ace, as East pitches his last club. If I'm right about the spade queen, this is the position.

	NORTH Robot ♠ 8 ♥ J 3 ♦ -- ♣ --
WEST Robot ♠ Q x ♥ -- ♦ 9 ♣ --		EAST Robot ♠ A x ♥ Q ♦ -- ♣ --
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ J 5 ♥ 7 ♦ -- ♣ --

If I exit with a spade, the defense can easily take the rest. A heart exit, forcing West to discard, is my only chance.

I lead the seven of hearts, and West pitches the spade six. Aha! That's promising. Now East must win the heart and underlead his spade ace.

East wins with the heart queen and cashes the spade ace, dropping his partner's queen. My spade jack scores the last trick. Making three.

	NORTH Robot ♠ 8 7 4 3 ♥ K J 3 2 ♦ J ♣ Q 10 9 7
WEST Robot ♠ Q 9 6 ♥ 9 ♦ 9 8 5 4 ♣ A 8 6 4 2		EAST Robot ♠ A K 2 ♥ Q 10 8 6 4 ♦ Q 7 3 2 ♣ 5
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ J 10 5 ♥ A 7 5 ♦ A K 10 6 ♣ K J 3

Plus 150 is worth 86%. West make a foolish play in stiffing his spade queen. This is the robots' greatest weakness on defense: assuming both declarer and partner are double-dummy. Why make a play that forces partner to do the right thing when you can make a play that leaves him no losing options?

I sympathize with East's play at the end. How could his partner hold the diamond nine and not discard it? My last two cards must be a spade and a good diamond. And that spade might be the queen. There are clues that isn't the case, but I think most of the blame falls to West.

I find one of the most difficult plays in bridge is spurning a legitimate but unlikely line in hope of a defensive error. It's one thing when you can see ahead of time the error an opponent might make. It's quite another when, as here, you are just hoping they will find some way to mess up. Ultimately, it's a matter of percentages. What's more likely? That you've misread the position or that the opponents will make a mistake? Sometimes playing for the mistake is the percentage line.

My former partner Howard Chandross put it more bluntly: "A finesse is only fifty percent," he would say, "but an idiot is always an idiot."

Free Weekly Instant Tournament - December 1 - Board 6

Board 6
Opponents vulnerable

♠ A J 10 9 2  ♥ 2  ♦ K 3  ♣ A K 8 6 4

RHO opens with one spade. Overcalling with two clubs will be a popular choice, but it's a bad idea. One reason is that the opponents may get into trouble if you stay out of their way. But a more important reason is that a two-club overcall misdescribes your hand.

When you have two suits of equal length, you bid the higher-ranking one first. The the way you "bid" a suit an opponent opens in front of you is to start with a pass. If you pass and subsequently take aggressive action, partner will know spades is your primary suit. He may even elect to play in spades, a result you can't achieve if you overcall with two clubs. This is an important consideration if the opponents play four-card majors or if the opening is in third seat. It is less important otherwise. Even so, it can't hurt to clue partner in as to what your hand looks like. If you bid two clubs, partner will never play you for a good five-card spade suit.

I pass, and LHO raises to two spades. Now would be a good time to make an aggressive take-out double, partner. No such luck. Partner and RHO both pass.

One could argue that double here should be for penalties. If you weren't willing to ask partner bid at the two level on the previous round, how could you want him to bid at the three level now? This is a sound argument in auctions where the opponents haven't found a fit. But when a suit has been bid and raised, it's less compelling. It's quite possible that you didn't double the first time not because you couldn't summon up your courage but because you were offshape. Now that the opponents have found a fit, it's likely your side has one as well and you don't want to sell out at a low level. Offshape doubles are easier to handle when you balance, because you can use advancer's two notrump as a scrambling device, an option that isn't available over a direct double.

Note that auctions such as

West	North	East	South
			1 ♠
Pass	1 NT	Pass	2 ♠

or

West	North	East	South
			1 ♠
Pass	1 NT	Pass	2 ♦
Pass	2 ♠	Pass	Pass

are different matters. In these auctions there is no presumption of an eight-card fit. It is more dangerous to act now than it was on the previous round, so playing these doubles for take-out makes no sense. In fact, the prospect of doubling for penalties on such an auction is one of the reasons for passing with this hand on the first round.

Unfortunately, as the auction went, I can't double. All I can do is sell out and be satisfied with 100 points per undertrick. Since it's unlikely we can make a game, this will probably be a good result.

What should I lead? When you hold four trumps, it's usually right to play a forcing game, leading your long side suit to tap declarer. With five trumps, that's often the wrong approach. One factor to consider is your trump holding. With a suit like AK432, a forcing game is probably right. You are forcing declarer to ruff with natural trump tricks and promoting your own small trumps. With good spots, however, a forcing game is less appealing. Your trumps are already winners. And if you force declarer, you are allowing him to score small trumps that he might not be able to score without your assistance. 

Often with five trumps it's better to score ruffs yourself to avoid getting endplayed. Imagine, for example, you come down to a five-card end position consisting of AJ1092 of trumps while declarer comes down to king-queen third of trumps and two losers. Declarer leads one of his losers. You have to ruff partner's trick and give declarer one of his trump honors. Then declarer leads his other loser. You ruff partner's trick again and have to give declarer his other trump honor. Clearly you would have done better had you ruffed a couple of declarer's tricks rather than partner's, coming down to ace-jack-ten of trumps, then sat back and waited for your two trump tricks.

Going for ruffs can be the right defense if your side has tricks to cash off the top. You cash your top tricks, getting some ruffs in the process, then exit. Now declarer is endplayed instead of you. But on this deal partner doesn't have much, so our tricks aren't coming from top cards. Whatever side-suit tricks we have will come from running the club suit. And the only way we can run the club suit is to force declarer to lose control. So a forcing game looks right.

I've settled on a club lead. Now which club? When you play a forcing game, it is often right to lead low from your long suit. Since a forcing game is essentially an attempt to convert the play to notrump, why not lead as if you were defending notrump? But one of the reasons to lead low against notrump is either to avoid blocking the suit or to retain communication if partner is short. Here, since we know partner is void in spades, it's unlikely partner has short clubs. So it looks better to lead an honor.

I know I've spent four paragraphs settling on the lead that most players would choose in half a second. But sometimes one's first instinct is wrong. It's worth thinking about what you are trying accomplish with your opening lead.

I lead the club king and see the following dummy:

	NORTH Robot ♠ 8 6 4 ♥ K 9 6 3 ♦ A 9 6 ♣ 10 7 3
WEST Phillip ♠ A J 10 9 2 ♥ 2 ♦ K 3 ♣ A K 8 6 4

West	North	East	South
Phillip	Robot	Robot	Robot
			1 ♠
Pass	2 ♠	(All pass)

Partner plays the club deuce, and declarer follows with the nine. I see no reason to abandon my plan. I continue with the ace of clubs. Partner follows with the five and declarer ruffs with the three of spades. Partner has kept the queen and jack of clubs, blocking the suit. I'm not sure whether I'm happy about that or not. A club entry to his hand might prove useful in getting off a potential endplay in diamonds. But in some scenarios it might prevent me from scoring my long club. Partner might have done better to keep one high club and one low one to give us some flexibility.

Declarer leads the five of hearts to dummy's king. Partner plays the four. I expect declarer to lead a spade off dummy. When partner shows out, he will duck, letting me win the nine. What should I do then?

I don't need to decide that. Declarer surprises me by leading the ten of clubs and ruffing it with the five of spades. What's that all about? What can he have for this line to make any sense?

Declarer now leads the spade king out of his hand. I take my ace, and partner plays the eight of diamonds. The robots play this card as count, and I assume partner would pitch a heart with 0-5-4-4, so it appears he is 0-3-6-4, giving declarer 5-5-2-1. If so, this is the current position:

	NORTH Robot ♠ 8 4 ♥ 9 6 3 ♦ A 9 6 ♣ --
WEST Phillip ♠ J 10 9 2 ♥ -- ♦ K 3 ♣ 8 6		EAST Robot ♠ -- ♥ ? ? ♦ ? ? ? ? ? ♣ Q
	SOUTH Robot ♠ Q 7 ♥ A ? ? ? ♦ ? ? ♣ --

I don't want declarer to score any more ruffs. I can lead the jack of spades, ruff declarer's likely heart lead, then draw the remaining trumps. Since I will still have a trump left, I can then lead a club to partner for a diamond play. If partner has the queen of diamonds or the jack-ten, this defense will hold declarer to two more tricks.

I lead the jack of spades. Partner pitches the five of diamond and declarer wins with the queen. Declarer doesn't even try to endplay me. He leads a diamond to dummy's ace. We have the rest. Down three.

	NORTH Robot ♠ 8 6 4 ♥ K 9 6 3 ♦ A 9 6 ♣ 10 7 3
WEST Phillip ♠ A J 10 9 2 ♥ 2 ♦ K 3 ♣ A K 8 6 4		EAST Robot ♠ -- ♥ J 7 4 ♦ J 10 8 7 5 4 ♣ Q J 5 2
	SOUTH Robot ♠ K Q 7 5 3 ♥ A Q 10 8 5 ♦ Q 2 ♣ 9

Plus 300 is worth 86%.

I still don't understand declarer's line of play. Why not lead a trump toward the king when he's in dummy with the king of hearts? When partner shows out, he will change his mind about playing the king and duck. Now what do I do? Presumably I will continue the tap with a third club. That will bring declarer down to king-queen tight of spades. Declarer will play the heart ace. I will ruff and play ace and a spade, drawing declarer's trumps. This will be the position with declarer on lead. Partner might be holding a high club, or he might have pitched it and be holding four diamonds.

	NORTH Robot ♠ -- ♥ 9 6 ♦ A 9 6 ♣ --
WEST Phillip ♠ 10 ♥ -- ♦ K 3 ♣ 8 6		EAST Robot ♠ -- ♥ J ♦ J 10 8 (x) ♣ (Q)
	SOUTH Robot ♠ -- ♥ Q 10 8 ♦ Q 2 ♣ --

Declarer now leads the heart queen. If partner has pitched his high club, I can ruff the next heart and cash two clubs. But then I must concede the last two tricks. Down only two. If partner has held onto his high club. I must be careful. If I ruff, we get only one club trick, and declarer has the rest. Down only one. To beat it two, I must pitch a club, then ruff the next heart, so declarer has no entry to the long heart in his hand. Then I can play a club to partner for a diamond play.

What happened to those who overcalled with two clubs? LHO bid two spades, partner raised to three clubs, and RHO bid three spades, judging his five-card heart suit compensated for the missing sixth spade.

So the two-club overcallers did better than I did. Or they could have. Most of them squandered their good fortune by doubling three spades. Doubling can hardly be right. As I said earlier, partner isn't going to play you for five good spades after you overcall. He'll expect four spades. And South's three-spade bid corroborates that. With the spade void you know he has, there is no way partner will sit for this double. Your should simply pass, happy you pushed the opponents up a level.

For those of you who scoffed at the idea of a low club lead, let me point out that the double-dummy analyzer reveals that putting partner on play for a diamond switch is the only way to beat this contract legitimately. After the lead of the club king, declarer can make the hand by not touching trumps. Persistently leading hearts hold the defense to four trump tricks and one club. Of course, this is an absurd line of play unless you know trumps are five-zero. Perhaps it's just as well I didn't have a penalty double of two spades available.

Free Weekly Instant Tournament - December 1 - Board 5

Board 5
Our side vulnerable

♠ K 9 6  ♥ K J 9 8 7 6  ♦ A J  ♣ J 5

Two passes to me. I open with one heart, LHO passes, and partner bids one spade.

If RHO passes, my correct rebid is two spades. The spade support is more important than the sixth heart. Why tell partner about one card in my hand when I can tell him about three?

It's true that if partner is four-two in the majors with a weak hand, we will play the wrong partscore. But if partner is five-one in the majors with a weak hand, it's the two heart rebid that will land us in the wrong partscore. If my bid is going to end the auction, it's a tossup which rebid works better. So I should worry about the times my bid doesn't end the auction. In those cases, it will probably work out better if I show my spade support. 

Unfortunately, the robots play that two spades promises four trumps. If I bid two spades, partner will assume spades are agreed and won't look for another strain. So a two-heart rebid is foisted upon me.

Thankfully, RHO comes to the rescue with a two-diamond overcall. Now I can show my three spades with a support double. It's a weird system where you pray for your opponents to interfere so you can bid your hand intelligently. Incidentally, the support double solves both of the problem scenarios above. With five spades and a bad hand, partner bids two spades. With four-two in the majors and a bad hand, he bids two hearts. The double leaves room to play either major at the two level.

I double. Partner bids two spades, and everyone passes. RHO leads the four of hearts.

	NORTH Phillip ♠ K 9 6 ♥ K J 9 8 7 6 ♦ A J ♣ J 5
	SOUTH Robot ♠ Q 10 8 7 4 ♥ 5 ♦ Q 7 5 3 ♣ Q 9 7

West	North	East	South
Robot	Phillip	Robot	Robot
			Pass
Pass	1 ♥	Pass	1 ♠
2 ♦	Double	Pass	2 ♠
(All pass)

West probably has a singleton heart to be leading dummy's suit. And he probably has six diamonds to be overcalling at the two level with such a bad suit. Since this is a best-hand tournament, East is limited to 13 HCP, which means West has at least eight. And he shouldn't have more than ten--at least if I'm right he has six diamonds--since he didn't open with one diamond.

Is there anything to conclude from the fact that he chose not to open with two diamonds? Some opponents might be dissuaded by a four-card spade suit. But the robots like to have good suits for weak two-bids, so the fact that the diamond suit has only one high honor is probably enough of a deterrent for a robot.

I'm off two clubs, a heart, and a spade off the top. Even if I can avoid losing to the jack of spades and can avoid a third club loser, I still must hold my diamond losses to one trick, which means I need to ruff one diamond in dummy. That won't be easy.

I play a low heart from dummy. East wins with the ten and shifts to his presumed singleton diamond, the eight. I play low, and West continues to show his Christmas spirit by playing the king. I win with dummy's ace.

Where do I stand now? I'm losing a heart, a spade, two clubs, and a diamond ruff as soon as the opponents get in. I have to take the rest, so I must assume I can avoid a third club loser. I must also assume the spade jack is on my right. If West has it, East can lead a heart for a trump promotion at some point. My problem, then, boils down to ruffing my fourth diamond in dummy without getting overruffed.

Suppose I lead the spade king from dummy. Say West wins and gives his partner a diamond ruff. East might now be able to play ace of clubs and a club to the king to score a diamond overruff with the spade jack. Since I must assume East has the spade jack anyway, I might as well take a first-round finesse against it. Then dummy's spade king will be available for a ruff if necessary.

I lead the spade six from dummy--five--four--ace. West leads the four of diamonds, and East ruffs with the deuce.

West exits with the jack of spades. I play the queen from my hand, East follows, and I play low from dummy. We are down to this position:

	NORTH Phillip ♠ K ♥ K J 9 8 7 ♦ -- ♣ J 5
	SOUTH Robot ♠ 10 8 7 ♥ -- ♦ Q 7 ♣ Q 9 7

I can now ruff a diamond in dummy and lead a club to my nine. But trumps are drawn, so there is no hurry to do that. I might as well lead a club toward dummy to give West a chance to hop with the king.

I lead the seven of clubs--four--jack--king. King? West can't have the ace of clubs.

♠ A x  ♥ x  ♦ K 10 9 x x x  ♣ A x x x

is a clear an opening bid. So East must have both club honors and has made a careless play, winning with the king instead of the ace.

East now leads the club deuce. This makes no sense. If East were looking at my hand, he would know he could afford to underlead the club ace. He can't lose it, because I need dummy's trump to ruff my diamond loser. But he's not looking at my hand. For all he knows I have queen ten of diamonds and he's conceding the rest of the tricks. The robots don't think about giving declarer a guess. They worry about what works under the assumption that declarer is double dummy. Under that assumption, underleading the club ace can cost but can never gain. So, as hard as it is to believe, West must have the club ace.

I play the nine. West wins with the ten and exits with the club ace. I ruff in dummy and concede one trick. Down one.

	NORTH Phillip ♠ K 9 6 ♥ K J 9 8 7 6 ♦ A J ♣ J 5
WEST Robot ♠ A 3 ♥ 4 3 ♦ K 10 9 6 4 2 ♣ A 10 3		EAST Robot ♠ J 5 2 ♥ A Q 10 2 ♦ 8 ♣ K 8 6 4 2
	SOUTH Robot ♠ Q 10 8 7 4 ♥ 5 ♦ Q 7 5 3 ♣ Q 9 7

West had a doubleton heart, not a singleton. That makes his failure to open a tad more understandable, but only a tad.

After the gift of the diamond king, can I make this if I play West for a doubleton heart? At the point I floated the six of spades, suppose I lead the king of hearts to ruff out East's ace? Then I lead a spade to dummy's king, reaching this position:

	NORTH Phillip ♠ 9 6 ♥ J 9 8 7  ♦ J ♣ J 5
WEST Robot ♠ A ♥ -- ♦ 10 9 6 4 2 ♣ A 10 3		EAST Robot ♠ J 5 ♥ Q 2 ♦ -- ♣ K 8 6 4 2
	SOUTH Robot ♠ Q 10 8 ♥ -- ♦ Q 7 5 ♣ Q 9 7

I lead the jack of hearts. East plays low, letting his partner ruff with the ace. The defense can then score two clubs and two diamond ruffs. No, I can't make it by setting up a heart trick. I can make it by leading the nine of clubs out of my hand. But that's not a sensible line.

Not that I need to make it. Down one is worth 96%. That's surprising. The auction and the first few tricks should be the same at every table. Not every declarer will float the six of spades. But that turns out not to matter. If you start spades by leading the king, the defense can't exploit your error without breaking the club suit. So you're still down only one.

The reason this is such a good result is that most players are bidding two hearts over two diamonds. Even given the opportunity to clarify that their support is only three cards, they still elect to show that all-important six of hearts instead. West of course doubles two hearts. Some stood their ground; others ran to two spades. But now the opponents have enough information to double that contract as well.

Free Weekly Instant Tournament - December 1 - Board 4

Board 4
Both sides vulnerable

♠ A K 9 5 2  ♥ 4 2  ♦ A 9 8 7  ♣ A 3

Partner opens with one heart in second seat. I bid one spade, and partner rebids one notrump. I have a king more than I need to bid game. That extra king means it's possible I should just raise to three notrump and not bother checking for a spade fit.

At IMPs I would do that. The fact that my spades are headed by ace-king is a plus for notrump. If spades break poorly, then, thanks to my extra high cards, I may be able to take nine tricks without needing to set up spades.

But this is matchpoints. If spades takes more tricks than notrump, three notrump will score poorly. And that's likely if spades break normally. In essence, choosing three notrump is a safety play against a bad trump break. At matchpoints, it's better to go with the odds and forgo the safety play.

I bid two clubs, artificial and forcing. Partner bids two spades and I raise to four. LHO leads the six of clubs.

	NORTH Robot ♠ 8 7 4 ♥ K Q 9 7 6 ♦ K J 6 ♣ K J
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ A K 9 5 2 ♥ 4 2 ♦ A 9 8 7 ♣ A 3

West	North	East	South
Robot	Robot	Robot	Phillip
Pass	1 ♥	Pass	1 ♠
Pass	1 NT	Pass	2 ♣
Pass	2 ♠	Pass	4 ♠
(All pass)

If I can set up hearts for diamond pitches, I may be able to avoid the diamond finesse. But I need to preserve entries to dummy, so I play the club jack and, when East plays the eight, I overtake with the ace. East would have covered if he had the queen, so West must hold it.

Should I start hearts right away, or should I cash a high trump to see if LHO drops an honor? If I lead a heart to dummy and it holds, I'd like to return to my hand with a trump to lead another heart. If I've already cashed one high spade, I'm returning to my hand with the other one. Opening up the spade suit doesn't look like a good idea. It allows the opponents to draw dummy's last trump and lead a club to tap me when they gain the lead. If I retain control of the trump suit, they can't do that. It's not clear I can manage a safety play in trumps anyway, so seeing an honor drop on my left may gain nothing. It looks better to start hearts right away.

I lead the four of hearts (better than the deuce, since if someone plays the three, his partner won't know that's his lowest heart). West hops with the ace and East follows with the eight. West shifts to the deuce of clubs (revealing he started with at least five clubs)--king--ten--three. 

If spades break and no one has a stiff heart, I can make an overtrick: cash two spades, heart to dummy, ruff a heart, concede a trump, and claim.

I play a spade. East plays the queen, and West drops the three under my ace. I cash the king of spades. West plays the six, and East discards the five of diamonds. This is the current position, with West holding two high trumps:

	NORTH Robot ♠ 8 ♥ K Q 9 7 ♦ K J 6 ♣ --
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ 9 5 2 ♥ 2 ♦ A 9 8 7 ♣ --

West started with at least nine black cards, so he is probably short in hearts. If he started with two, I can play a heart to dummy and ruff a heart, setting up the suit. If West overruffs, draws dummy's last trump, then leads a club to tap me, I have the rest. He does better not to overruff. If he pitches a club, I can lead a diamond to dummy and take one pitch. But West ruffs, draws dummy's trump, and taps me. I can't get back to dummy to pitch my last diamond.

What happens if I don't bother setting up the hearts? If I play a heart to dummy's king, then cash the queen, pitching a diamond?  If West follows, I can play another heart and pitch my last diamond. If he ruffs and draws dummy's trump, this will be the position:

	NORTH Robot ♠ -- ♥ 9 7 ♦ K J 6 ♣ --
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ 9 5 ♥ -- ♦ A 9 8 ♣ --

If West taps me with a club, I have the rest, since, when I cash my last trump, East is squeezed in the red suits. To break up the squeeze, West must shift to a diamond. As long he has either the queen or the ten, this will give me a diamond trick and, again, I have the rest.

This looks like the right plan. All I need is three-three hearts or for West to have one diamond honor. I play a heart to dummy's king and cash the queen, pitching the seven of diamonds. West ruffs, cashes his last trump, and taps me. East shows out on the club lead, so the squeeze is no longer inferential. East is marked with all red cards. I ruff in my hand and claim.

	NORTH Robot ♠ 8 7 4 ♥ K Q 9 7 6 ♦ K J 6 ♣ K J
WEST Robot ♠ J 10 6 3 ♥ A J ♦ -- ♣ Q 9 7 6 5 4 2		EAST Robot ♠ Q ♥ 10 8 5 3 ♦ Q 10 5 4 3 2 ♣ 10 8
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ A K 9 5 2 ♥ 4 2 ♦ A 9 8 7 ♣ A 3

Plus 620 is worth 82%. I was wrong that I needed West to have a diamond honor. Having a void worked as well. 

Raising one notrump to three would have turned out better, as one would expect when spades break poorly. After the normal diamond lead, it's easy to make four, which is worth 96%. You can actually make five by endplaying East in hearts to force another diamond play. But if you ever duck a spade, you can't do that. You can't execute a throw-in for eleven tricks if you've already lost two. Since it's hard to imagine a sensible line that doesn't involve ducking a spade at some point, making five notrump is unlikely.

Another interesting feature of this deal: Against certain declarers in four spades, East has an opportunity to place North in his debt by executing an anti-cervisial coup. At the point I pitched the seven of diamonds, such declarers would pitch the eight. Now, when South executes the squeeze, East must pitch his heart stopper--not a diamond--to prevent declarer from scoring the beer card at the end.

Free Weekly Instant Tournament - December 1 - Board 3

Board 3
Opponents vulnerable

♠ Q 3 2  ♥ 9 3 2  ♦ A 6  ♣ A K Q 8 4

I open with one notrump. LHO and partner pass, and RHO balances with two hearts, showing hearts and a minor.

It's tempting to bid three clubs. But as a general rule it is the responsibility of the player short in the opponent's suit to act. If partner has a doubleton heart, he should balance unless he is broke. If he has three hearts, we will probably do better on defense than on offense. So I pass. LHO and partner pass also, and RHO buys it for two hearts.

I lead the king of clubs and see the following dummy:

	NORTH Robot ♠ K 10 8 7 4 ♥ A 6 ♦ Q 8 2 ♣ 9 5 2
WEST Phillip ♠ Q 3 2 ♥ 9 3 2 ♦ A 6 ♣ A K Q 8 4

West	North	East	South
Phillip	Robot	Robot	Robot
1 NT	Pass	Pass	2 ♥
(All pass)

North had a tough problem. If his partner has five hearts, he wants to pass. But if his partner has four hearts and a five-card minor, he wants to bid two notrump to play the minor. It's a complete guess.

I don't understand why Astro, which solves such problems, isn't more popular. Playing Astro, partner bids two clubs to show hearts and a minor. With this hand, you bid two diamonds, denying three-card heart support. If partner has five hearts, he bids two hearts and you pass. If he has four hearts and a longer minor, he passes two diamonds or bids three clubs. Why play guessing games with Cappelletti when there is a convention that let's you find out what you need to know?

Declarer plays the five of clubs from dummy for whatever reason. Partner plays the six; declarer, the seven.

My proper continuation is the club queen, but I don't trust my robot partner to work out I have the ace. I don't want him ruffing this if clubs was declarer's second suit. So I lead the ace. Declarer continues his MUD convention by playing dummy's nine. Partner plays the jack; declarer, the three.

I still don't know much about declarer's hand other than that he has at least nine cards in the red suits. But I see no reason not to persist in clubs. I play the club queen. Partner follows with the ten, and declarer ruffs with the heart five.

If declarer is five-five in the red suits, it probably doesn't matter much what we do. Let's assume he's five-four one way or the other. If he is 4-5, he will probably play on spades, hoping to scramble some ruffs in his hand.

Declarer plays the four of diamonds. Since he seems to be playing for control rather than scrambling, it's likely he has five hearts, so I'll assume he's 2-5-4-2.

I duck, declarer wins with dummy's queen, and partner plays the seven. Declarer continues with the deuce of diamonds from dummy--three--king--ace.

Declarer would have ducked this trick without the diamond jack, and he wouldn't have started diamonds early with king-jack-ten fourth. So his long diamond is a loser.

If partner has the spade ace, I can lead a spade to him and get a diamond ruff. That brings us up to five tricks. Declarer will probably have the king-queen of hearts if partner has the spade ace. So we will need to score our long diamond trick to beat it. Can we?

If declarer has the spade jack, he has a guess when I lead a spade. But he should guess correctly, since I can hardly have the spade ace. Even though that gives me only 17 HCP, the prime values and good five-card suit make that hand too good for a one-notrump opening. So declarer should play low on my spade shift and unblock the jack under partner's ace. Then he can pitch his diamond loser on dummy's spade ten.

What if partner has the jack of spades? Declarer ducks the spade shift. Partner wins with his jack and gives me a ruff. I play a spade to partner's ace for the setting trick. Partner can now play his last diamond and I can ruff with the nine, uppercutting the dummy and possibly promoting a trick for down two.

What is the danger in shifting to a spade? If declarer has ace-nine, a spade shift will give him a spade trick to pitch his diamond loser on. That's a very specific layout, however. A priori, partner is three times as likely to have ace-jack third of spades as declarer is to have ace-nine doubleton, so switching to spades is the percentage play.

I lead the spade deuce. Declarer rises with the king. Partner wins with the ace, and declarer follows with the five.  Declarer must be missing the jack. He decided rising with the king was his only chance. Partner shifts to the diamond ten, declarer covers with the jack and I ruff.

That's five tricks, and the spade queen makes down one. How confident am I that partner has the spade jack? If he does, I can underlead my queen to put him on play for the uppercut, possibly yielding down two.

Wait. What am I thinking? I don't need partner to lead diamonds. Declarer has to lead them himself or concede a diamond trick at the end. So there is no reason to underlead. Queen and a spade, tapping declarer, works just as well.

I cash the spade queen. Partner follows with the six; declarer, with the jack. Wow! So declarer did misguess! I'm insulted. But now dummy has a spade trick he can pitch his diamond on. Can we stop  that? Maybe. If partner has the jack-ten of hearts, this is the position:

	NORTH Robot ♠ 10 8 7 ♥ A 6 ♦ -- ♣ --
WEST Phillip ♠ 3 ♥ 9 3 ♦ -- ♣ 8 4		EAST Robot ♠ 9 ♥ J 10 x ♦ 9 ♣ --
	SOUTH Robot ♠ -- ♥ K Q x x ♦ 5 ♣ --

If I play a heart or a spade, declarer has the rest. So I might as well play a club. What happens then? If declarer pitches from dummy and ruffs in his hand, partner can pitch his spade. preventing the diamond discard. So declarer must ruff the club in dummy. Partner overruffs with the ten, and declarer overruffs with the queen. He can now lead a heart to the ace and take his discard. But then he can't get off dummy. My nine of hearts promotes for the second undertrick.

I lead a club. Declarer ruffs in dummy. Partner overruffs with the ten, and declarer overruffs with the queen. It looks as if this is going to work.

It does. Partner has the jack of hearts, so declarer finishes down two,

	NORTH Robot ♠ K 10 8 7 4 ♥ A 6 ♦ Q 8 2 ♣ 9 5 2
WEST Phillip ♠ Q 3 2 ♥ 9 3 2 ♦ A 6 ♣ A K Q 8 4		EAST Robot ♠ A 9 6 ♥ J 10 8 ♦ 10 9 7 3 ♣ J 10 6
	SOUTH Robot ♠ J 5 ♥ K Q 7 5 4 ♦ K J 5 4 ♣ 7 3

Plus 200 is worth 100%. 

I was feeling pretty good about my defense until, stepping through the play with the double-dummy solver, I got to the point where I shifted to a low spade:

	NORTH Robot ♠ K 10 8 7 4 ♥ A 6 ♦ 8 ♣ --
WEST Phillip ♠ Q 3 2 ♥ 9 3 2 ♦ -- ♣ 8 4		EAST Robot ♠ A 9 6 ♥ J 10 8 ♦ 10 9 ♣ --
	SOUTH Robot ♠ J 5 ♥ K Q 7 4 ♦ J 5 ♣ --

The solver said that leading the spade queen beats the contract by force.

Really? How does that work? I see. If I lead the queen, declarer covers and partner wins with the ace. Declarer can't afford to play the jack. If he does, he has only one spade winner and can't get a diamond pitch. So he must play low, blocking the suit. Partner gives me a ruff for our fifth trick. Now a ruff-sluff in clubs works the same magic it did in my line, yielding the setting trick.

Annoying. Even though I wound up beating it two on my defense, I was just lucky. Declarer should have guessed the spades and made it. The spade queen is a pretty play. It would be nice to be able to brag that I had found it.

Admittedly, the spade queen isn't 100%. If partner doesn't have jack-ten of trumps, leading low and hoping declarer misguesses is your only shot. But I think the chance that a decent declarer will misguess is pretty slim, so shifting to the spade queen looks right.

A word about using double-dummy solvers. Initially, I was wary of them. I was afraid if I used them, my brain would atrophy. I still believe that's a danger if you use them as a substitute for thinking. But when used as I did here--to see if you missed something on a deal you have already played--they can be a useful tool.

Without a double-dummy solver, I never would have realized that shifting to the spade queen beats the contract by force. Having discovered that, perhaps the next time I encounter a similar position I'll do the right thing.