Free Weekly Instant Tournament - December 13 - Board 6

Board 6
Opponents vulnerable

♠ 6 5 2  ♥ A 9 7  ♦ A K 9 8 4  ♣ K 4

RHO opens with one diamond in first seat. Three and a half honor tricks and a five-card suit qualifies as a strong notrump even if I am missing a high-card point, so I could overcall with one notrump. But, since the opponents are vulnerable and have opened in my best suit, it might be better to pass and see if they get into trouble.

I pass. LHO tries to stay out of trouble by passing also. Partner balances with one heart, and RHO doubles for takeout.

One could argue that two diamonds here should be natural. The primary reason to play that a cue-bid shows support is to allow you to play a jump raise as pre-emptive. But you don't need a pre-emptive raise when LHO has passed. You can simply raise hearts to whatever level you think is appropriate. 

But the robots do play two diamonds as a cue-bid showing heart support. So I might as well take advantage of that fact to offer a choice of strains. I can bid two diamonds to show my heart support, then bid two notrump to show just short of a one-notrump overcall.

Over two diamonds, partner bids two hearts. I bid two notrump as planned, and partner bids four hearts. RHO leads the heart ten.

	NORTH Phillip ♠ 6 5 2 ♥ A 9 7 ♦ A K 9 8 4 ♣ K 4
	SOUTH Robot ♠ K Q 3 ♥ K Q 8 3 2 ♦ J 3 2 ♣ 3 2

West	North	East	South
Robot	Phillip	Robot	Robot
1 ♦	Pass	Pass	1 ♥
Double	2 ♦	Pass	2 ♥
Pass	2 NT	Pass	4 ♥
(All pass)

One of the first bridge books I ever read was Bob Ewen's Opening Leads. Ewen states that, when leading a trump, one should lead second highest. The idea is to retain your high spot for a possible overruff if you have a doubleton and to start a trump echo, to show a third trump, if you have three. So far, his suggestion is mainstream. But Ewen continues to say that "second highest" applies even when you hold an honor sequence. Thus one should lead the ten from jack-ten and the nine from ten-nine.

This method makes sense. If you lead second highest from non-touching cards (which is a common agreement), what do you gain by switching to highest when you hold a sequence? That simply introduces an ambiguity. I can't think of any reason not to play Ewen's method.

Ewen presents this as if it were expert practice. But, as I discovered later, it isn't. Not only have I never found anyone who plays this way, I've never found anyone who has even heard of this approach. That surprises me, since Ewen's book is hardly obscure.

That's not to say I've never seen anyone lead the ten from jack-ten of trumps. But they don't do so by agreement. They do so either for deceptive purposes or as some sort of mis-guided attempt to give suit preference. So, against a human, I would never assume from this opening lead that the heart jack is on my right. But against robots, I think that's a safe assumption.

Still, there is no reason not to guard against the possibility that I'm wrong. Rather than win in dummy and take an immediate finesse, I can unblock the nine, win this trick in my hand, then return to dummy with the heart ace for a finesse.

Accordingly, I unblock the nine. East plays the five, and I win with the king.

West probably has the diamond queen and presumably at least four of them for his opening bid. Let's say I draw trump now. If East has four of them, I will discard a spade from dummy on the fourth round. Then I will lead the diamond jack. West will cover, and I'll win in dummy.

If East doesn't play the ten, I know West has it, so I'll play a spade to the queen. West will take his ace and l return a spade. I'll win and play a diamond to the eight, reaching this position with the lead in dummy:

	NORTH Phillip ♠ -- ♥ -- ♦ K 9 4 ♣ K 4
	SOUTH Robot ♠ 3 ♥ 3 ♦ 3 ♣ 3 2

If I were in my hand, I could repeat the diamond finesse, take two pitches, and lose only the club ace. making five. But I'm in dummy. So I must lose the club ace and another spade and make only four.

No, wait. It's worse than that. I have no way to get off dummy without losing control. If I play ace and ruff a diamond to lead up to the club king, they can hop and cash two spades for down one.

Let's back up. On the fourth round of trumps, I must pitch a diamond from dummy. Now, after I take the second diamond finesse, this will be the position, again with the lead in dummy:

	NORTH Phillip ♠ 6 ♥ -- ♦ K 9 ♣ K 4
	SOUTH Robot ♠ 3 ♥ 3 ♦ 3 ♣ 3 2

Now I can exit with a spade. If they win and tap me, I can repeat the diamond finesse and pitch one of my clubs to make four.

Can I make five if I manage my entries better? Let's say I lead the diamond jack at trick two. West covers. I win in dummy, draw trump, and lead a diamond to the eight, reaching this position:

	NORTH Phillip ♠ 6 5 ♥ -- ♦ K 9 4 ♣ K 4
	SOUTH Robot ♠ K Q 3 ♥ 3 ♦ 3 ♣ 3 2

Now when I play a spade to my queen and West wins and returns a spade, I'm in my hand for another diamond finesse. I can pitch my spade and a club and lose only the club ace to make five. If I'm going to take three diamond finesses, I need to take one of them now.

The danger in taking a finesse now is that diamonds might be 5--0. If so, I'm going down, losing two aces and at least two diamond ruffs. If everyone is in game, the fact that I risk going down doesn't matter. I stand to gain as many matchpoints as I stand to lose, so I should just take the percentage play. But if some pairs don't reach game, the risk-reward ratio is different. When my play works, I gain half a matchpoint against every pair in game. When it loses, I lose a half a matchpoint to every pair in game and a full matchpoint to every pair not in game. 

Is it worth the risk even so? There are three ways East can have a small singleton diamond and only one way for him to have a void, so an immediate finesse gains three times out of four. Let's say the field consists of four more pairs: two are in game; two are not. The immediate finesse will gain 1 matchpoint (.5 for each pair in game) 75% of the time. It will lose 3 matchpoints (.5 for each pair in game and 1 for each pair not in game) 25% of the time. So the net expectation is zero when half the field is in game. That means if I think more than half the field will be in game, I should lead the diamond jack now. If I think less than half will be in game, I should play safe and draw trump.

I could be wrong, but I think at least half the field will be in game. So I play the diamond jack--seven--four--.

The good news is East doesn't ruff. The bad news is he follows with the ten. That means I don't need three finesses to pick up the diamond suit. Two finesses suffice, so my trick-two finesse was unnecessary. Everyone in game will be making five.

I play a heart to dummy's ace. West follows with the four; East, with the six. I play a heart to my hand, drawing East's last trump, and West pitches the spade four.

Now I play a diamond to the eight and run the diamonds, pitching two clubs. East pitches the spade seven and the nine, five, and seven of clubs, carefully holding all his even spotcards. On the last diamond, West pitches the club ten. We've reached this position:

	NORTH Phillip ♠ 6 5 2 ♥ -- ♦ -- ♣ K 4
	SOUTH Robot ♠ K Q 3 ♥ 8 3 ♦ -- ♣ --

I play a spade--eight--queen-ace. West returns the jack of spades to my king. I cash the last two trumps and West "misguesses" and holds the club ace instead of the spade ten, so my spade three wins the last trick. Making six.

	NORTH Phillip ♠ 6 5 2 ♥ A 9 7 ♦ A K 9 8 4 ♣ K 4
WEST Robot ♠ A J 10 4 ♥ 10 4 ♦ Q 7 6 5 ♣ A Q 10		EAST Robot ♠ 9 8 7 ♥ J 6 5 ♦ 10 ♣ J 9 8 7 6 5
	SOUTH Robot ♠ K Q 3 ♥ K Q 8 3 2 ♦ J 3 2 ♣ 3 2

Plus 480 is worth 100%. It turns out the last overtrick was only a small bonus. Plus 450 would have been worth 93%. That surprises me. With the diamond ten dropping, making five should be routine.

West made a clear error in the end position. When he was in with the spade ace, he should try to cash the club ace instead of exiting with a spade. If it cashes, great. If I ruff, he knows he has a spade trick coming. Trying to cash the club ace eliminates the need to guess which card to hold at trick thirteen.

Robots make this particular mistake often. It's a flaw in their algorithm. They assume double-dummy play by everyone, including themselves, so they see no difference between a play that is always 100% and a play is 100% provided you do the right think later on. To be fair, we humans sometimes make this mistake as well. But at least we are embarrassed when we do.

The most dramatic example I've seen of this mistake is when a robot went down in seven notrump with thirteen top tricks. I led dummy's void, and declarer pitched from dummy's long suit. Now he had only twelve tricks. In the robot's "mind," he could afford this discard because he had a two-way guess for a queen for his thirteenth trick. So, double-dummy, the discard made no difference. If only robots were allowed to claim when the dummy comes down! Then he would have made it.

Free Weekly Instant Tournament - December 13 - Board 5

Board 5
Our side vulnerable

♠ 10 8 5  ♥ A K Q 3  ♦ 6 5  ♣ A Q 7 6

Partner passes, and RHO opens with two diamonds, weak. I double. LHO bids two spades, a one-round force. Partner passes, and RHO bids three diamonds. If you look just at high-card points, I don't have much beyond my initial double. But I do have four-card support for both unbid suits and all my high cards are in those suits, which means point count under-evaluates the hand. So I double again.

Partner bids three hearts and everyone passes. RHO leads the seven of spades.

	NORTH Phillip ♠ 10 8 5 ♥ A K Q 3 ♦ 6 5 ♣ A Q 7 6
	SOUTH Robot ♠ 6 2 ♥ 9 5 4 2 ♦ J 9 7 2 ♣ K 9 4

West	North	East	South
Robot	Phillip	Robot	Robot
			Pass
2 ♦	Double	2 ♠	Pass
3 ♦	Double	Pass	3 ♥
(All pass)

Do I have any shot at making this? Given West's failure to lead a high diamond, East probably has a singleton diamond honor. So East will cash two spades, cash his diamond honor, then play a third spade. West will score an overruff, cash another diamond for the setting trick, then play a third one. I'll need to ruff high and hope the remaining trumps are two-two to hold it to down one. If they aren't, I'm down two.

Down one will be OK if three diamonds makes. Does it? To hold this to down one, I need West to have three hearts. So let's give him 2-3-6-2. If we cash our four tricks and tap dummy with a heart, he can't avoid a trump loser. That shouldn't be a hard defense to find, and tapping dummy might not even be necessary. But there's no reason I need to figure that out right now. I don't think is going to be a good result.

I play a low spade from dummy. East overtakes his partner's seven with the nine and cashes the jack of spades, as West follows with the three. East then shifts to the eight of diamonds. The eight? West led a doubleton in his partner's suit rather than a diamond from ace-king-queen-ten? How come the robots never lead my suit?

I cover with nine of diamonds. West wins with the ten and cashes the queen. At least he tries to cash it. East ruffs with the eight of hearts and leads the spade queen. I ruff with the nine of hearts and West pitches the four of diamonds. Really? East has both high hearts? That was lucky.

Am I making this now? Here is the current position, with the lead in my hand. I need the rest of the tricks.

	NORTH Phillip ♠ -- ♥ A K Q 3 ♦ -- ♣ A Q 7 6
	SOUTH Robot ♠ -- ♥ 5 4 2 ♦ J 7 ♣ K 9 4

East wouldn't have ruffed with jack-ten fourth of hearts. So he must have jack-ten third. That means West is 2-2-6-3 and dummy's clubs are good. Even if East made a bizarre play of ruffing with his natural trump trick and West is 2-1-6-4, then four rounds of trumps will squeeze West in the minors. So it appears I've made this.

I cash two hearts. Both opponents follow, and I claim. The robots know I have a complete count, so they accept. Making three.

	NORTH Phillip ♠ 10 8 5 ♥ A K Q 3 ♦ 6 5 ♣ A Q 7 6
WEST Robot ♠ 7 3 ♥ 7 6 ♦ A K Q 10 4 3 ♣ J 3 2		EAST Robot ♠ A K Q J 9 4 ♥ J 10 8 ♦ 8 ♣ 10 8 5
	SOUTH Robot ♠ 6 2 ♥ 9 5 4 2 ♦ J 9 7 2 ♣ K 9 4

Both opponents misdefended. West knows he doesn't want his partner to ruff the second diamond, so he should play the ace, not the queen. The queen asks partner to ruff. It's the card to play if you aren't sure if partner has a singleton diamond (so you can't afford to lead a low one) but you want him to ruff if he does. It would be the right play, for instance, holding the jack of hearts to ensure you get your overruff.

Even so, East, holding jack-ten third of hearts, should ignore his partner's request. He can see that ruffing never gains. But if he lets his partner's queen hold, he gets a trump promotion for down one. For his ruff to make any sense at all, he must have thought I had the diamond ace. I can't imagine why I would duck the diamond ace if I had it, but the robots don't draw such inferences.

Plus 140 is worth 100%. No one else doubled three diamonds, so had I gone down in three hearts, I would have had a near zero.

Getting 100% from your own actions should always be a cause for concern, since it means no one else did what you did. In a good field, that probably means you made a mistake and got away with it. That isn't necessarily true in a bad field, like this one. But you should still take a second look at your decision.

Was I wrong to double three diamonds? My double is certainly wrong at IMPs. We don't have a game when partner couldn't act. And with my holding such a flat hand, there is little likelihood that both our contract and their contract are making, which is the only scenario where you must compete for the partscore at IMPs. But at matchpoints, you want to compete if either contract is making. Am I right to double at matchpoints?

It's true I got lucky that the opponents misdefended. But the possibility that the opponents will misdefend is part of the vig in bidding aggressively. You don't want to count on misdefense. But it's OK if you catch an unlucky layout and misdefense rescues you.

Is that what happened? What would I need for my double to be right without misdefense? Suppose partner held the heart jack instead of the diamond jack. Now if clubs are three-three, three hearts makes. And if clubs are four-two, three diamonds makes. If all you have to do to make your decision right is to switch a jack from one suit to another in partner's hand, it's hard to criticize your action.

My second double was aggressive, but not crazy. So I stand by it.

Free Weekly Instant Tournament - December 13 - Board 4

Board 4
Both sides vulnerable

♠ A 10 5 2  ♥ K Q 3  ♦ A Q 6  ♣ 7 6 4

RHO opens with one spade in third seat, and I overcall with one notrump. Partner bids two clubs, Stayman.

Since RHO opened in third seat, he could have a four-card spade suit. It's even possible he psyched, although the fact that he's vulnerable and the fact that he's a robot make that highly unlikely. Still, I hate to be talked out of a trump fit simply because an opponent has bid the suit. I see no harm in showing my four-card spade suit, so I bid two spades. Partner rebids two notrump.

When you hold a strong notrump behind an opening bidder, you can often make three notrump with less than 25 HCP, since you can expect more than half of your finesses to be working. A human partner would have taken that into account already and would have adjusted his ranges accordingly. So opposite a reliable partner, I would pass. But my robot partner probably doesn't know to do that. I suspect he's inviting game with the same hands he would have invited with had I opened one notrump. So it's up to me to make the adjustment. 

I bid three notrump. Everyone passes and LHO leads the three of spades.

	NORTH Robot ♠ K ♥ 10 8 7 6 ♦ 9 7 5 4 3 ♣ A J 2
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ A 10 5 2 ♥ K Q 3 ♦ A Q 6 ♣ 7 6 4

West	North	East	South
Robot	Robot	Robot	Phillip
Pass	Pass	1 ♠	1 NT
Pass	2 ♣	Pass	2 ♠
Pass	2 NT	Pass	3 NT
(All pass)

If East has the diamond king and diamonds break, I have seven tricks. I can drive the heart ace for an eighth trick, but I don't have the dummy entries to take a diamond finesse and lead up to my king-queen of hearts twice, so I may need East's assistance in finding a ninth.

Will I get his assistance? He may have no choice but to offer it. The spade ten, the heart ten, and the club jack are all threats. He will have a hard time preventing me from scoring one of those cards.

East plays the spade eight on dummy's king. I know West led from three, but there is no reason I should let East know that. I play the five, retaining a card lower than the one West led. 

There are 17 HCP outstanding. If East is balanced, then West will have 3 to 5 HCP, so the diamond finesse could fail. Let's hope it doesn't. I play a diamond from dummy--deuce--queen--eight. Now ace of diamonds--jack--three--king. Diamonds split, so I have my seven tricks.

I'm not sure who has the diamond ten. I hope it's East, since I don't especially want West to get in for a club shift. I lead a diamond, and West pitches the five of hearts. The robots play count when discarding. That looks like high from four, making West 3-4-2-4 and East 5-2-3-3. That's a favorable layout for me. If East has the heart ace, I only need one heart lead toward my hand, then I can duck out the ace.

East wins with the diamond ten and shifts to the queen of spades. I play low, West plays the nine, and I pitch a heart from dummy, reaching this position with East on lead:

	NORTH Robot ♠ -- ♥ 10 8 7 ♦ 9 7 ♣ A J 2
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ A 10  ♥ K Q 3 ♦ -- ♣ 7 6 4

East is in trouble. If he continues spades, he gives me the spade ten for my ninth trick. If plays ace and a heart, he gives me a second heart trick. If the plays a low heart from his ace doubleton, I can win and duck out his ace. And if he has king-queen of clubs and leads one, I can duck, leaving him endplayed in three suits.

What if West has a club honor? Then East can exit with a low club. But then I take dummy's ace and cash diamonds, coming down to:

	NORTH Robot ♠ -- ♥ 10 8 7 ♦ -- ♣ J 2
		EAST Robot ♠ J x ♥ A x ♦ -- ♣ K (or Q)
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ A 10 ♥ K Q 3 ♦ -- ♣ --

Now I lead a heart from dummy. Whatever East does, he can score only two more tricks, coming to four tricks for the defense.

East chooses to cash the heart ace and exit with the heart jack. I take my nine tricks for plus 400.

	NORTH Robot ♠ K ♥ 10 8 7 6 ♦ 9 7 5 4 3 ♣ A J 2
WEST Robot ♠ 9 6 3 ♥ 9 5 4 2 ♦ J 8 ♣ K 10 9 3		EAST Robot ♠ Q J 8 7 4 ♥ A J ♦ K 10 2 ♣ Q 8 5
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ A 10 5 2 ♥ K Q 3 ♦ A Q 6 ♣ 7 6 4

Making three notrump is worth 89%. This deal is a good example of why it's right to stretch for game in this situation. Three notrump would be quite a poor contract if I didn't have an opening bid in front of me. 

With ace-jack tight of hearts, there was nothing East could do to beat me. But if he had ace-small, he could try exiting with a low heart instead of ace and another. When my queen holds, I won't be entirely sure where the ace is. East could hold

♠ Q J x x x  ♥ J x  ♦ K 10 x  ♣ K Q x

and West could be ducking the ace. So I must decide whether to lead low, ducking out the ace, or to lead the king, smothering the jack. I rate to get it right, since leading the king is playing for both for one specific distribution of hight cards and for East and West each to have made good plays. But giving me that option is East's only chance.

I said I saw no harm in showing my four-card spade suit over Stayman. Actually, there could be harm if you have an agreement not to show it. Give North the same hand without the spade king or the club ace, for example. If he knows I won't bid two spades, he can bid Stayman to reach a safer partscore. But he can't afford to do that without a specific agreement that you will never bid two spades. I might be persuaded to make that agreement after a first- or second-seat opening that promises a five-card suit. But I can't see making it an unconditional agreement.

Free Weekly Instant Tournament - December 13 - Board 3

Board 3
Opponents vulnerable

♠ Q 2  ♥ A  ♦ K Q J 8 5 2  ♣ A 8 3 2

I open with one diamond, partner bids one heart. I have five diamond tricks, two aces, and half a trick from the fourth club. Seven and half tricks is worth a three-diamond bid, but with six-four, it's better to bid your four-card suit first. We could miss a club slam if I rebid three diamonds.

I rebid two clubs, and partner shows a preference with two diamonds. Now I bid three diamonds, essentially showing a hand worth three diamonds on the previous round but with a club suit on the side. Partner obligingly bids three notrump. Everyone passes, and RHO leads the deuce of hearts.

	NORTH Phillip ♠ Q 2 ♥ A ♦ K Q J 8 5 2 ♣ A 8 3 2
	SOUTH Robot ♠ A J 7 3 ♥ J 10 8 7 5 ♦ 7 3 ♣ J 4

West	North	East	South
Robot	Phillip	Robot	Robot
	1 ♦	Pass	1 ♥
Pass	2 ♣	Pass	2 ♦
Pass	3 ♦	Pass	3 NT
(All pass)

Partner's three notrump is a bit pushy without a fitting diamond honor. I might have passed three diamonds with his hand, but three notrump isn't a bad spot. If diamonds split, I have eight tricks. I can try a spade finesse for my ninth. If the opponents don't shift to clubs when they win the diamond ace, I can even afford to lose the spade finesse. The defense will be able to take only a diamond, a spade, and two hearts.

I win in dummy with the heart ace. East plays the six. I want the six to look encouraging, so I must conceal the five. The seven is a better falsecard than the eight. If West thinks the six is high, then it would deny the seven, so the seven is "the card I'm known to hold." Or, more accurately, "the card I want to be known to hold." Accordingly, I play the seven.

At trick two, I lead the diamond king from dummy. East plays the four, and I follow with the seven to conceal the fact that East's four is low. West wins with the ace.

West continues with the six of diamonds. I win with dummy's queen, and East follows with the nine.

The fact that West is defending passively rather than try to cash heart tricks suggests he knows I have only eight cashing tricks. He can't know that unless he has both black kings. If I needed to, I would try to maneuver some kind of endplay to avoid the spade finesse. But, since the opponents have only two winners to cash, I can afford to lose the finesse.

Do I have any shot at an overtrick if the opponents don't cash their hearts when West wins the spade king? Maybe. The defense doesn't know I have four spades. If I cash diamonds, someone may pitch a spade from four. Can I afford to cash them? If I cash two diamonds, I'll be down to this position:

	NORTH Phillip ♠ Q 2 ♥  ♦ 5 2 ♣ A 8 3 2
	SOUTH Robot ♠ A J 7 3 ♥ J 10 8 ♦ -- ♣ J

What do I pitch on the next diamond? I can't afford a second heart discard, and pitching a spade gives up on the overtrick. So I will have to take the spade finesse now. Since cashing two diamonds won't apply much pressure, perhaps I'm better off losing the spade finesse immediately before West gathers more information.

I lead the spade queen--six--three--king. West unfortunately continues with the eight of spades. The spade continuation killed the only entry to my hand and any chance of creating problems for the defense. I don't see anything I can do other than cash my tricks. Making three.

	NORTH Phillip ♠ Q 2 ♥ A ♦ K Q J 8 5 2 ♣ A 8 3 2
WEST Robot ♠ K 10 8 ♥ K 9 4 2 ♦ A 6 ♣ K 9 7 6		EAST Robot ♠ 9 6 5 4 ♥ Q 6 3 ♦ 10 9 4 ♣ Q 10 5
	SOUTH Robot ♠ A J 7 3 ♥ J 10 8 7 5 ♦ 7 3 ♣ J 4

+400 is worth a surprising 89%. Most of the field is rebidding two diamonds over one heart. I don't understand. Even if you have some grudge against the club suit, why not bid three diamonds? Two diamonds is a massive underbid. What are they teaching beginning bridge players these days that a jump rebid in your suit shows? 

I realize not everyone thinks in terms of playing tricks. But what I learned as a novice from Goren's Contract Bridge Complete was that a jump rebid showed 16 to 19 total points (HCP and distribution) and a good six-card suit. Even after deducting a point for the unprotected spade queen, this hand is still worth 18 total points, so it's not even close. It's a maximum three diamond bid by Goren's standard. I need to pick up a beginner's book and see what they're teaching them.

West had some difficult problems defending three notrump. His first problem was on opening lead. He did well not to lead the unbid suit, which would have given the defense no chance. Whether a heart or a club lead is better is unclear. A club attacks dummy's entry but may simply give a trick away. As it happens, a club lead makes the defense easy. But, since dummy is very likely to hold a singleton heart, West's choice of a heart is reasonable, and suffices if the defense is accurate thereafter.

Let's sit in West's seat and try to gauge his best defense. What should we do after winning the diamond ace? It's hard to see declarer's bidding game without the spade ace. If he has it, he has eight tricks. We could try to cash three heart tricks, then exit with a diamond and wait for the setting trick. But if declarer has five hearts, cashing hearts sets up his ninth trick in the heart suit. So for that defense to work, I would need to find partner with queen-ten or queen-jack fourth of hearts. That's pretty optimistic. And partner might have signaled with the ten or queen from that holding.

Since a heart continuation doesn't look promising. It looks as if our options are to switch to a club, hoping partner has the queen, or to defend passively by exiting with a diamond. If declarer has the spade jack, we might as well switch to a club. A passive defense would give declarer time to set up his ninth trick in spades. But if partner has the spade jack, there is no reason to risk a club shift. A passive defense is better.

In short, a club switch is right if partner has the club queen and declarer has the spade jack, and a diamond exit is right if declarer has the club queen and partner has the spade jack. That looks like a toss-up. But is it? 

A passive defense needs more than just those two cards to be right. It also needs partner to have the club jack. If declarer has it, he can simply take a club finesse. In fact, if declarer reads the layout, it also need partner to have the heart queen. If declarer has it, he can run diamonds, coming down to this position:

	NORTH Phillip ♠ Q 2 ♥ -- ♦ -- ♣ A 8 3 2
WEST Robot ♠ K 10 ♥ K 9 ♦ -- ♣ K 9		EAST Robot ♠ J ♥ x x x ♦ -- ♣ J x
	SOUTH Robot ♠ A x ♥ Q x ♦ -- ♣ Q x

Now ace and a spade endplays us. 

So a passive defense is playing for four cards to be right, whereas a club shift is playing for only two cards to be right. A club shift looks like the right defense. 

Actually, maybe we can do better. At least if our partner were a human rather than a robot. If we aren't going to defend passively, we don't need the diamond for an exit card. So we can duck the first diamond to get more information. Partner's first diamond should be count. But if partner began with three diamonds, he has the ten and nine left and can give suit preference.

If partner plays the nine, we can't be sure he has the club queen, since he has to signal one way or the other, and he may have nothing to say. But one thing we can be sure of: If he plays the ten, he doesn't have the club queen. He wouldn't go out of his way to play a high diamond with something in clubs. So if he plays the ten, we can try a heart switch in desperation. Maybe we can run hearts after all. Or maybe he has the heart queen and jack-ten of clubs and can win and put a club through.

So that's my plan: Duck the first diamond and win the second. Then play a club unless partner's carding tells me a club isn't going to work. 

.

Free Weekly Instant Tournament - December 13 - Board 2

Board 2
Our side vulnerable

♠ A 7 3  ♥ Q 8  ♦ K J 10 5 3  ♣ A Q 9

RHO passes. I open with one notrump, and partner bids two diamonds, a transfer to hearts. I bid two hearts, and partner bids three diamonds. I have quite a good hand in support of diamonds: five-card support, the queen of partner's primary suit, and aces in the side suits. If partner is interested in slam, I have what he needs.

Of course he isn't necessarily interested in slam. He could be probing for the right game, and my first responsibility is to aid in that probe. If he has a minimum game force, he should have a singleton in one black suit or the other, else he should simply bid three notrump. If his singleton is in spades, three notrump could easily be the wrong game. How do I suggest that?

Three spades shows strength in spades and implies clubs may be a weak spot. Unfortunately, without special agreements there is no way to suggest spades may be a weak spot. This is a flaw in standard methods.

The problem springs from the fact that three hearts is natural. There is no reason it should be. It's foolish to waste a three-level bid to show heart support when you know you are bidding past three notrump. All four-level bids should show heart support, and all three-level bids below three notrump should show diamond support. Since three spades shows good spades, three hearts, by elimination, should show good clubs and concern about spades.

Without that agreement, however, I have a problem. Neither three spades nor a standard three hearts conveys the meaning I want, and I'm not about to sign off in three notrump with such a slam-positive hand. So I decide to bid four diamonds. 

It's dangerous to bid past three notrump at matchpoints with a minor-suit fit. But if partner isn't interested in slam, perhaps five diamonds will be a reasonable spot. It might make when three notrump doesn't. Or it might make when we have only nine tricks in notrump. Also, partner might bid four hearts to show hearts playable in a five-two fit, in which case I can pass.

I bid four diamonds. Partner passes. That was unexpected. I would have thought we were in a game force. RHO leads the ace of hearts.

	NORTH Phillip ♠ A 7 3 ♥ Q 8 ♦ K J 10 5 3 ♣ A Q 9
	SOUTH Robot ♠ K 4 2 ♥ J 9 7 4 3 ♦ A 8 7 4 ♣ 7

West	North	East	South
Robot	Phillip	Robot	Robot
Pass	1 NT	Pass	2 ♦
Pass	2 ♥	Pass	3 ♦
Pass	4 ♦	(All pass)

I see. Partner didn't have a game force. I would have just transferred to hearts and passed with partner's hand. One of the reasons I pre-accept on almost any hand with four trumps is so partner needn't stretch with a marginal invitation like this one.

I have two heart losers and a potential diamond loser. I can ruff both dummy's clubs in my hand, so I need to dispose of dummy's spade loser. West is making that easy for me by leading my suit.

East plays the heart deuce; I play the three. West shifts to the six of clubs. I rise with the ace, ruff a club, and play ace and king of diamonds. Trumps are two-two. I ruff the last club and concede a heart. Making five.

	NORTH Phillip ♠ A 7 3 ♥ Q 8 ♦ K J 10 5 3 ♣ A Q 9
WEST Robot ♠ J 10 9 5 ♥ A K ♦ Q 2 ♣ 10 6 5 3 2		EAST Robot ♠ Q 8 6 ♥ 10 6 5 2 ♦ 9 6 ♣ K J 8 4
	SOUTH Robot ♠ K 4 2 ♥ J 9 7 4 3 ♦ A 8 7 4 ♣ 7

+150 is worth 18%. Almost everyone is bidding a timid three notrump over three diamonds. That doesn't have to make, but East leads a club, presenting declarer with his ninth trick.

A few are taking ten tricks. Should you? For some reason, West doesn't play the club ten at trick one, so declarer wins the trick with his nine. If declarer now runs diamonds, he comes down to the following position (flipping the board to make North dummy):

	NORTH Robot ♠ K 4 2 ♥ J 9 7 4  ♦ -- ♣ --
WEST Robot ♠ Q 8 6 ♥ 10 ♦ -- ♣ K J 8		EAST Robot ♠ J 10 ♥ A K ♦ -- ♣ 10 6 5
	SOUTH Casper M. ♠ A 7 3 ♥ Q 8 ♦ -- ♣ A Q

To score ten tricks, declarer must hope that the defense can't score two club tricks before he can take a heart trick.

To prevent this, East must hold three clubs. (If he holds only a doubleton, declarer can drive a heart honor, duck the club shift, then drive the other heart honor.) Since East must hold two hearts and three clubs, he must come down to a doubleton spade. That means West must hold all his spades. He must also hold three clubs, so the defense can take two clubs. And he must hold a heart as an exit card, so declarer can't endplay him in spades. If the defense does all this, declarer can't score a tenth trick.

In practice, West pitched a spade at his first opportunity. Most declarers, however, did not exploit this error and made only three. So we would have been only slightly below average if partner had not chickened out on his game force and had raised four diamonds to five.

I believe the agreements I outlined after Jacoby and a minor-suit rebid make sense. I glossed over opener's four-level bids, simply stating that they should all show heart support, so let me expand on that idea now. 

Four hearts should be a minimum with heart support, and four clubs should be better than a minimum. (It needn't be much better, since you are limited by the fact that you didn't pre-accept.)

Four diamonds should show support for both suits: three-card heart support and four- or five-card diamond support. The bid suggests diamonds as the strain for slam (using hearts to provide discards) but hearts as the strain for game if partner isn't interested in slam. This is a very useful agreement. Without it, you have to support hearts with support for both suits. If partner turns out to be interested in slam, it can then be hard to steer the hand back to diamonds.  

Free Weekly Instant Tournament - December 13 - Board 1

Board 1
Neither side vulnerable

♠ A J 7 6 3  ♥ K Q 7  ♦ K  ♣ 10 8 7 5

Two passes to me. I open with one spade, LHO passes, and partner bids two diamonds. This bid isn't forcing by a passed hand, and it seems high enough to me. But before I can pass, RHO chimes in with three clubs.

Really? He wasn't willing to open three clubs, but he's willing to come into the middle of a potential misfit auction when both of us have shown decent hands? Ten fourth of trumps, a singleton in partner's suit, and an ace in my suit, which could easily be facing a singleton in partner's hand, make this a clear double.

I double, everyone passes, and I lead the king of diamonds.

	NORTH Robot ♠ K 8 5 4 ♥ A J 6 5 3 ♦ 8 6 ♣ K 3
WEST Phillip ♠ A J 7 6 3 ♥ K Q 7 ♦ K ♣ 10 8 7 5

West	North	East	South
Phillip	Robot	Robot	Robot
		Pass	Pass
1 ♠	Pass	2 ♦	3 ♣
Double	(All pass)

Declarer echoes with dummy's eight, partner plays the five, and declarer follows with the three.

What do I know about the layout? Partner has at least six diamonds and at most two spades. He probably has a singleton club, since RHO would have opened three clubs with ace-queen-jack seventh. That means partner is probably 2-4-6-1. The four-card heart suit is probably why he chose not to open two diamonds. 

Could partner be 2-3-7-1? That would mean we have a heart trick coming. But I doubt it. Chiming in at the three level between two bidding opponents is bad enough as it is. I can't see South's doing that without a singleton somewhere. And "somewhere" has to be hearts.

Could partner have a singleton spade, in which case I can give him spade ruffs? That would make partner either 1-5-6-1 or 1-4-7-1. Partner might pull with those patterns, but that's not clear. He is right to pull if I have this hand, but for all he knows I'm 6-5 in the black suits.

What about high cards? Partner should have 9 or 10 HCP for his two-diamond bid. If he has ace-queen of diamonds, he still needs a queen and a jack or two queens. 

What does declarer have for tricks? If he has ace-queen-jack sixth of clubs, he has six club tricks, one heart, and one spade. If he scores a diamond ruff in dummy, that's nine tricks. So perhaps I should switch to a trump at trick two. If declarer wins and plays another diamond, partner can win and put me in with the spade ace for a second trump play, stopping the ruff. But is that good enough? Perhaps declarer doesn't need the ruff. Perhaps he can make use of the heart suit instead. 

Say I switch to a trump. Declarer wins in his hand. Heart to the ace, ruff a heart, club to dummy, ruff a heart. Dummy now has two good hearts. He draws my trump and leads a spade toward the king. I have no entry to partner's hand to cash diamonds, so he makes an overtrick. In fact, even if partner has a stiff queen or jack of clubs to hold declarer to five club tricks, declarer can still come to nine tricks if I let him set up hearts. 

Forget the trump shift. I need to shift to a spade to kill the late dummy entry. That allows declarer to ruff a diamond, but if partner has a club honor, we can afford that. So long as we kill the heart suit, declarer takes one spade, one heart, five clubs, and a ruff for eight tricks. 

Switching to spades has the additional advantage that I might catch partner with a singleton. I play the ace of spade--four--nine--deuce. Now three of spades--king--queen--ten.

Declarer plays a spade off dummy, and partner ruffs with the queen of clubs as declarer pitches the nine of hearts. The club queen is a good card to see, but I'm surprised declarer is pitching a heart. Could he be 2-2-3-6 after all? 

Partner cashes the diamond ace. Declarer follows with the seven and I pitch a spade. Partner continues with the nine of diamonds and declarer follows with the jack. We've reached this position, with me to play to the current trick:

	NORTH Robot ♠ 8 5 ♥ A J 6 5 3 ♦ -- ♣ K 3
WEST Phillip ♠ J 7 ♥ K Q 7 ♦ -- ♣ 10 8 7 5		♦ 9
	♦ J

This doesn't add up. If declarer is 2-2-3-6, then partner just underled his queen of diamonds to declarer's stiff jack. Did declarer make a truly bizarre three-club bid with

♠ 10 2  ♥ x x  ♦ J 10 x x  ♣ A J x x x ?

I ruff with the club five, forcing dummy's king. Declarer cashes the ace of hearts and pitches the ten of diamonds. OK. 2-1-4-6 after all. I eventually score the club ten for the setting trick.

	NORTH Robot ♠ K 8 5 4 ♥ A J 6 5 3 ♦ 8 6 ♣ K 3
WEST Phillip ♠ A J 7 6 3 ♥ K Q 7 ♦ K ♣ 10 8 7 5		EAST Robot ♠ Q 9 ♥ 10 8 4 2 ♦ A Q 9 5 4 2 ♣ Q
	SOUTH Robot ♠ 10 2 ♥ 9 ♦ J 10 7 3 ♣ A J 9 6 4 2

Plus 100 is worth 93%. Only one other player doubled three clubs. This field is a bunch of ninnies. The other doubler managed to beat it two tricks. At trick two, he shifted to the king of hearts. With the spade entry intact, declarer could now make this. But he took the heart ace, ruffed a heart to his hand, and led the club jack for a backward finesse, finishing down two.

The heart shift makes no sense. If declarer has a stiff heart, it accomplishes nothing. If he has doubleton, he simply ducks, and the defense can't take more than four tricks. The heart suit is a source of tricks for declarer, not for the defense. So you need to attack dummy's side entry.

But, while the spade shift was correct, ace and a spade isn't good enough. Declarer can win the spade, play ace and ruff a heart, play a club to the king, and ruff another heart, stripping me of my last red card. After he cashes his top clubs, we will reach this position:

	NORTH Robot ♠ 8 5 ♥ J 6 ♦ -- ♣ --
WEST Phillip ♠ J 7 6 ♥ -- ♦ -- ♣ 10		EAST Robot ♠ -- ♥ 10 ♦ A Q 9 ♣ --
	SOUTH Robot ♠ -- ♥ -- ♦ J 10 7 ♣ 9

Now he exits with a club, pitching dummy's small heart. I get the spade jack, but I must concede the last two tricks to dummy. I think declarer knew enough about the layout to find this line. A good declarer would have made the hand after my defense.

To beat the contract, I must shift to low spade at trick two. That both kills the heart suit and builds an entry to partner with the spade queen. Now if declarer goes for the end play, I can reach partner to cash his diamonds.

A low spade isn't 100%. If declarer has

♠ Q x x  ♥ 9  ♦ x x x  ♣ A J 9 x x x

ace and a spade gives us the first four tricks, and I still have a club trick coming. A low spade is not a success. So at least my defense wasn't hopeless. 

But I didn't see the endplay coming. If I had seen it, noticed a low spade shift would prevent it, and then chosen to play for ruffs anyway, that would be one thing. As it is, I have to count my defense as an error.

Free Weekly Instant Tournament - October 25 - Board 7

Board 7
Both sides vulnerable

♠ 8 7 5  ♥ A Q 10 6 2  ♦ 9 8 5  ♣ K Q

I'm in first seat. Under normal circumstance, I wouldn't open a "5332" with 11 HCP. But this is a "best-hand" tournament, which means if I don't open, there is a good chance the hand will be passed out. If so, do I mind? Was I likely to go plus had I opened?

If I open with one heart and partner bids one notrump, I can pass. It's forcing, but partner doesn't have a cup of coffee to throw at me. If that happens, we will probably go plus in one notrump. 

If partner bids one spade, however, I have a problem. If I pass, we could easily miss a spade game. But if I rebid one notrump and partner raises to two, I suspect I'm a favorite to go down. All in all, I don't think opening rates to be a winning decision. 

With a balanced ten-count, I would be more tempted to open. I would be less worried about passing a one-spade response. And knowing everyone has exactly 10 HCP is a huge advantage in the play.

I pass. As does everyone else.

Passing the board out is worth 64%. Those who opened typically rebid one notrump over their partner's one spade response and played it there. Let's pretend I did the same and try to predict what would have happened.

	NORTH Robot ♠ A 9 3 2 ♥ 8 7 ♦ A J 6 4 ♣ 10 3 2
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ 8 7 5 ♥ A Q 10 6 2 ♦ 9 8 5 ♣ K Q

West	North	East	South
Robot	Robot	Robot	Phillip in an Alternate Universe
			1 ♥
Pass	1 ♠	Pass	1 NT
(All Pass)

West leads the five of clubs. East takes the ace, dropping my queen, and returns the four of clubs to my king, West following with the eight.

Partner has 9 HCP, so the outstanding high cards must be distributed 10-11.

How should I continue? It looks natural to attack the diamond suit. I can lead the nine and let it ride. If it loses to the king or queen, I can lead the eight next, picking up the suit for three tricks if East holds king-seven or queen-seven doubleton. But that's still only six tricks. I'll need to find the heart king onside to come to seven.

If I need the heart finesse anyway, perhaps I'm better off forgetting about the diamond suit and trying for four heart tricks. I can start with a low heart from my hand, giving West a chance to make a mistake and hop with king doubleton. If that doesn't happen, I get to dummy and lead a heart to the queen, hoping for three-three hearts. 

This offers a better chance to make my contract than playing on diamonds. The problem is, I go down more if it doesn't work. I won't even score the heart ace, because I'll have no entry to my hand. I don't think that's a serious consideration, however. The board will be passed out at most tables, so I need to go plus to get a decent score.

I lead the five of hearts from my hand. West hops with the jack and leads the six of clubs to his partner's jack. I pitch the five of diamonds.

East cashes two more clubs. I pitch a diamond and a spade from each hand. West pitches the three of diamonds and the six of spades. We've reached this position:

	NORTH Robot ♠ A 9 3 ♥ 8 ♦ A J 6 ♣ --
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ 8 7 ♥ A Q 10 6 ♦ 9 ♣ --

East shifts to the spade queen, and West overtakes with the king. I see nothing to gain by winning this trick, so I duck on principle.

West continues with the spade jack. I take dummy's ace, and East follows with the four. East has shown up with the spade queen and ace-jack of clubs. There is room in his hand for the heart king. I lead the heart eight from dummy--five--queen--king. I score only the diamond ace after that. Down four.

	NORTH Robot ♠ A 9 3 2 ♥ 8 7 ♦ A J 6 4 ♣ 10 3 2
WEST Robot ♠ K J 10 6 ♥ K J 3 ♦ Q 7 3 ♣ 8 6 5		EAST Robot ♠ Q 4 ♥ 9 5 4 ♦ K 10 2 ♣ A J 9 7 4
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ 8 7 5 ♥ A Q 10 6 2 ♦ 9 8 5 ♣ K Q

The pairs who played one notrump all floated the diamond nine at trick three. So I would have gotten a zero for down four. I'm happy I didn't open.