Free Weekly Instant Tournament - September 19 - Board 3

 

Board 3
Opponents vulnerable

♠ J 3  ♥ A Q 8 6 4  ♦ A Q 8 5 3  ♣ 6

If you prefer, you can watch Alex take you through Board 3 on Gargoyle's YouTube channel:

I open with one heart in first seat. LHO overcalls with two clubs. Partner raises to two hearts. And RHO bids three clubs. Partner's perfect minimum is king third in both red suits, which makes four hearts cold on normal breaks. So my hand is worth an invitation. 

I suspect the field won't be inviting. I would count this as 15 total points after the raise, which isn't worth an invitation. But point count undervalues concentrated strength.

The loser-counters, however, might go to the other extreme and blast game. Five losers, in theory, is worth a four-heart bid. They're wrong, too, in my opinion. Loser count overvalues hands where fit is important. In general, when some people will be content with a part score and others will be blasting game, the baby-bear approach is usually right.

I bid three diamonds, and partner accepts with four hearts. Everyone passes and LHO leads the jack of clubs.

	NORTH Robot ♠ 5 4 2 ♥ K 10 9 7 ♦ 10 7 4 2 ♣ A Q
	♣ J
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ J 3 ♥ A Q 8 6 4 ♦ A Q 8 5 3 ♣ 6

West	North	East	South
Robot	Robot	Robot	Phillip
			1 ♥
2 ♣	2 ♥	3 ♣	3 ♦
Pass	4 ♥	(All pass)

Since I think a fair percentage of the field will not reach game, my primary concern is making this. So what's my best chance? Should I take the club finesse to pitch a spade?

A vulnerable two-level overcall on a jack-high suit is unlikely, but it's not unheard of. And I might not need the club finesse. If I can take four diamond tricks, I can afford to lose two spades.

I can take four diamond tricks any time diamonds are two-two, which is 40% of the time. 50% of the time they will split three-one one way or the other. Of the eight ways they can split three-one, I can pick up stiff king or jack in either hand. So that's an additional 25%, bringing my total chances up to 65%. 

Actually, I'm wrong. It's better than that. West probably would have led a stiff small or stiff jack of diamonds. So that reduces the denominator. Let's try this again.

If we eliminate the likely diamond leads, we come up with the following table. For each of West's possible holdings, the tables shows whether we can achieve our goal. If we go up with the club ace, our goal is four tricks. If we finesse and it loses, we need five tricks.

Diamond Layout

West	East	Cases	4 tricks	5 tricks
♦ --	♦ K J x x	1
♦ K	♦ J x x	1	Y
♦ K J	♦ x x	1	Y
♦ K x	♦ J x	2	Y
♦ J x	♦ K x	2	Y	Y
♦ x x	♦ K J	1	Y	Y
♦ K x x	♦ J	1	Y
♦ K J x	♦ x	2
♦ J x x	♦ K	1	Y
♦ K J x x	♦ --	1

Now we can calculate out chance of success. The percentages aren't exact, because the cases are not equally likely. But it's a good approximation.

Goal	Cases	Percentage
4 tricks	9 / 13	0.69
5 tricks	3 / 13	0.23

If I go up with the ace, I'll make 69% of the time. What if I finesse? I'll make if the finesse works. I'll make even if the finesse loses if I can take five diamond tricks. If I judge the finesse to be 60%, then finessing works 60% of the time plus 23% of the remaining 40%, or about 69% of the time total. So that's the over-under. If I think the finesse is better than 60%, I should finesse. If not, I should go up.

60% sounds conservative to me. So I'll take over. I play the queen. East plays the three. I pitch a spade on the ace of clubs. East plays the seven; West, the deuce. I play the ten of hearts to my ace to guard against a four-one break. Deuce from East; three from West.

I want to make sure I end up in dummy after the third round of hearts, so I cash the queen next. West discards the seven of spades. I unblock the nine to stay flexible. Now a heart to dummy's king. West discards the king of clubs. I've reached this position with the lead in dummy.

	NORTH Robot ♠ 5 4 2 ♥ 7 ♦ 10 7 4 2 ♣ --
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ J ♥ 8 6 ♦ A Q 8 5 3 ♣ --

As long as I don't lose three diamond tricks, I've made this. I play the deuce of diamonds from dummy. East plays the six.

My instincts say to cover with the eight. Now I can't go down. If I play the queen... Oh, I still can't go down. If West shows out, I lose a spade and two diamonds. This is why I don't listen to my instincts.

I play the queen. West wins with the king and returns the nine. I claim eleven tricks.

	NORTH Robot ♠ 5 4 2 ♥ K 10 9 7 ♦ 10 7 4 2 ♣ A Q
WEST Robot ♠ K 9 7 6 ♥ 3 ♦ K 9 ♣ K J 10 9 8 2		EAST Robot ♠ A Q 10 8 ♥ J 5 2 ♦ J 6 ♣ 7 5 4 3
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ J 3 ♥ A Q 8 6 4 ♦ A Q 8 5 3 ♣ 6

Plus 650 is worth 100%. I was right the field didn't try for game. Only two other pairs reached game, and they both made only four. 

In retrospect, I missed a key inference in my analysis. I said that if the club finesse lost, I had a 23% chance of taking five diamonds tricks. But that's not true. Given West's failure to lead a spade, the best he can have in spades is ace-queen. If he's missing the club king, that doesn't leave him with much for his overcall. If the club finesse loses, the diamond king is almost surely offside.

That means the over-under for taking the finesse is 69%, not 60. I think I'd still take over. But it's a lot closer.

Free Weekly Instant Tournament - September 19 - Board 2

Board 2
Our side vulnerable

♠ K 2  ♥ Q 9 6 4  ♦ A Q 5 4  ♣ J 10 3

The link to the YouTube episode for this deal is below:

I open one diamond in second seat. Partner bids two notrump, invitational. I have nothing extra, so I pass. RHO leads the six of spades.

	NORTH Phillip ♠ K 2 ♥ Q 9 6 4 ♦ A Q 5 4 ♣ J 10 3
	SOUTH Robot ♠ A 8 3 ♥ A 8 7 ♦ K J 6 ♣ 6 5 4 2

West	North	East	South
Robot	Phillip	Robot	Robot
Pass	1 ♦	Pass	2 NT
(All pass)

I have seven top tricks. If the king of hearts is with West, I can develop the heart queen for my eighth. But if I lead to the queen of hearts and it loses to the king, I’m out of chances. The opponents will clear spades and have lots of black tricks ready to cash if I give up the lead again.

Is there anything else to try instead? There’s the intra-finesse in hearts. I can float the seven, then lead the queen, hoping to pin jack- or ten-doubleton on my left. True, that's an unlikely layout. It's much more likely the king is onside. But if I have some reason to believe it's offside, the intra-finesse is worth considering. If I lead a heart toward the queen and West ducks, is that sufficient reason? How likely is West to hop with the king if he has it?

Sometimes it's a bad idea at notrump to let declarer sneak a trick through early. Change the deal to something like this:

	NORTH Phillip ♠ K 2 ♥ Q 9 6 ♦ A Q 7 5 4 ♣ J 10 3
	SOUTH Robot ♠ A 8 3 ♥ A 8 7 ♦ J 10 6 ♣ Q 6 5 4

If the diamond finesse works, I have eight tricks. If I take the finesse and it loses, I'm likely to go down. So I might try a heart to the queen at trick two. If West has the king and ducks, I'm home. 

But in that layout, the heart play is suspicious. West knows I have at most three hearts. When declarer attacks a suit to develop only one trick, an alarm should go off. West should probably realize declarer is trying to sneak a trick through to gain a tempo. So he should hop and clear spades.

The actual deal isn't going to set off an alarm. There is nothing suspicious about attacking dummy's four-card suit, so West has no compelling reason to hop. If I play a heart toward dummy and West plays low, going for the intra-finesse would be well against the odds. 

Should I duck trick one? The opponents have communication in clubs, so I don’t see much to gain by ducking. I play low from dummy, East plays the jack, and I take the ace. West is marked with the ten, but I don't know who has the queen.

I could run diamonds first, then lead a heart to the ace and another heart. But I don't want to advertise that I'm wide open in clubs.

Next question: Should I play ace and a heart--or just lead a low one? A low heart to the queen would be embarrassing if East has a stiff king. But is that likely? It means West chose to lead a spade with jack-ten fifth of hearts. And cashing the ace first leaves me open to going down two or more if the queen loses to the king. Leading low looks better. And the eight looks better than the seven, since it might tempt West to cover with the ten.

I lead the eight of hearts. West hops with the king, and East plays the deuce. So I've made my contract. It's all about overtricks now.

West shifts to the queen of spades. I win in dummy, and East plays the four. So West has queen-ten of spades. He probably doesn't have the nine, else he would have led the ten. So the possibilities are Q106, Q1076, or Q10765. Q106 is unlikely. He might have led the ten to start an unblock if chose to lead from that holding.

I cash three rounds of diamonds, ending in dummy. Diamonds were three-three. On the fourth diamond, East pitches the five of spades. OK. We've eliminated Q10765 in the West hand. West appears to have started with four spades. I pitch the deuce of clubs: East pitches the eight of clubs.

We've reached this position with the lead in dummy:

	NORTH Phillip ♠ -- ♥ Q 9 6 ♦ -- ♣ J 10 3
	SOUTH Robot ♠ 8 ♥ A 7 ♦ -- ♣ 6 5 4

I lead a heart from dummy--ten--ace--five. Now a heart from my hand. West plays the three. Do I finesse, playing West for king-jack fourth, or do I go up, playing for a three-three split?

 If my construction is right, West began with either

♠ Q 10 7 6  ♥ K J 5 3  ♦ 9 3 2  ♣ ? 8

or

♠ Q 10 7 6  ♥ K 5 3  ♦ 9 3 2  ♣ ? ? 8.

By restricted choice, the finesse is two-to-one to be right. The fact that a doubleton club is less likely than a tripleton reduces that somewhat. It's more like three to two. But more important than the a priori odds is the fact that hopping with king-jack fourth of hearts is dangerous. If East has ten doubleton, hopping lets me take three heart tricks; ducking holds me to two. It's true that hopping from king third takes me off a guess if his partner has the jack--a guess I rate to get wrong. So it's arguably a mistake to hop with either holding. But at least hopping with king third won't cost a trick by force. I think that's the mistake a robot, who doesn't think about taking you off guesses, is more apt to make. So it looks right to go up with the queen.

Another reason to go up: I'm in two notrump. Playing for overtricks in two notrump is seldom a good idea. You don't want to jeopardize your plus score when some will be going minus in a game. So, even if I thought finessing was the percentage play, it would have to be a pretty high percentage before I risked it.

I rise with the queen. East drops the jack. Making three.

	NORTH Phillip ♠ K 2 ♥ Q 9 6 4 ♦ A Q 5 4 ♣ J 10 3
WEST Robot ♠ Q 10 7 6 ♥ K 5 3 ♦ 9 3 2 ♣ A Q 8		EAST Robot ♠ J 9 5 4 ♥ J 10 2 ♦ 10 8 7 ♣ K 9 7
	SOUTH Robot ♠ A 8 3 ♥ A 8 7 ♦ K J 6 ♣ 6 5 4 2

Four pairs played three notrump and made it. That's taking quite a position to accept with the North hand. Maybe they though two notrump was forcing? Fortunately, five pairs managed to misplay two notrump. So plus 150 is worth 54%.

Free Weekly Instant Tournament - September 19 - Board 1

Board 1
Neither side vulnerable

♠ 9 2  ♥ 8 6 5 4  ♦ A Q 10 5 3  ♣ A K

Unsurprisingly, Alex bid and played this hand exactly as I did and for exactly the same reasons. You can watch her analysis on my YouTube channel:

Two passes to me. I open with one diamond, LHO bids one spade, partner bids three diamonds (weak), and RHO bids three spades.

We have a ten-card diamond fit, so the Law says I should compete to the four-level. Even so, I wouldn't compete with no expectation of beating four spades. Four diamonds here is called a "one-under bid." Normally, a player who pre-empts is out of the auction and leaves further decisions to partner. But a bid one under the opponents' game invites him back in. Specifically, it invites him to double if he has good defense for his pre-empt. Since I have three likely tricks on defense, I would be happy to hear partner double.

I bid four diamonds, and LHO goes on to four spades--pass--pass back to me.

Given partner didn't double, should I sacrifice in five diamonds? It seems unlikely that five diamonds will go down three, so it will be a good save if four spades makes.

At IMPs, the answer is clearly "no." I have decent chances to beat this. Even the queen of spades in partner's hand might be enough if declarer decides to hook me for it. And the upside is small even if saving is right. I'm risking eight imps to gain three. So at IMPs, I would pass and hope for the best. At matchpoints, however, some would argue that passing isn't allowed. If I think four spades is 51% to go down, I should double. If I think it's 51% to go make, I should save. Passing, they say, can never be the percentage action.

That argument would hold if it were likely that four spades or five diamonds would be played at every table. And that everyone would take the same number of tricks in those contracts. But that's not necessarily the case here.

For example, if some tables play in three spades making, a five-diamond sacrifice risks more than it stands to gain. If four spades makes, saving picks up half a matchpoint for every pair in four spades or five diamonds. If it goes down, conceding 300 in five diamonds loses half a matchpoint to those same pairs plus a full matchpoint for every pair in three spades. So even if four spades is a slight favorite to make, saving is not the percentage action.

Similarly, if four spades makes five at some tables and we find the defense to hold it to four, a double will have cost more than it stood to gain. If that scenario is possible, a slight chance of beating four spades isn't sufficient to double.

It looks to me like pretty much a toss-up whether four spades makes or not. So I pass. Partner leads the four of diamonds.

	NORTH Robot ♠ A K 10 5 ♥ Q 10 ♦ J 7 ♣ 9 8 7 6 5
	♦ 4	EAST Phillip ♠ 9 2 ♥ 8 6 5 4 ♦ A Q 10 5 3 ♣ A K

West	North	East	South
Robot	Robot	Phillip	Robot
Pass	Pass	1 ♦	1 ♠
3 ♦	3 ♠	4 ♦	4 ♠
(All pass)

I take the ace, dropping declarer's king. We have three top tricks. If partner has queen third of clubs or a heart trick, we can beat this--provided we defend correctly. If partner has queen third of clubs, I must unblock. Give declarer

(A) ♠ Q J x x x  ♥ A K x x ♦ K  ♣ x x x .

If don't unblock, he can strip the hand and endplay me. On the other hand, if partner has the king of hearts, I may need to lead a heart before cashing the clubs. If declarer has

(B) ♠ Q J x x x x  ♥ A x x ♦ K  ♣ Q J x ,

then if I cash clubs and play a heart, declarer can win, draw trump, and pitch both his heart losers on dummy's clubs. It's true hand (B) gives partner

♠ x  ♥ K J x x ♦ x x x x x  ♣ x x x ,

in which case he might have made a negative double. But I, for one, wouldn't. The opponents have the master suit. If we outbid them, it won't be in a four-four heart fit. It will be because we have a massive diamond fit. So three diamonds looks better than a negative double.

How do I decide what to do? Playing with a partner I trust, I would cash the club king. If partner has the heart king, he will discourage, and I'll shift to a heart.

My robot partner is no help, however. I'll have to decide what to do on my own. (A) is more likely than (B) a priori, since it gives declarer a more balanced distribution in the majors. In addition, if partner happens to have the ace of hearts or if he has the king and declarer finesses when I shift, cashing both clubs will result in down two. So cashing clubs looks right.

Next question: What order should I cash my clubs in? If I were hoping for a signal, I would have to cash the king first. Since I intend to cash both of them whatever partner plays, perhaps I should cash the ace first to show my doubleton. But is that really necessary? If I cash two clubs and play a heart to partner, there is nothing for partner to do but return a club and hope I ruff it. He knows a diamond isn't cashing. And a heart return is playing me for the other heart honor, which declarer must have for his four-spade bid. So there is no reason to telegraph my doubleton to declarer. If he's missing the heart king, I want him to think it's safe to finesse. 

I cash the king of clubs--deuce--three--five. Now ace of clubs--jack--four--six. Now the eight of hearts.

Declarer rises with the ace of hearts, draws trump, and concedes a heart trick for down one.

	NORTH Robot ♠ A K 10 5 ♥ Q 10 ♦ J 7 ♣ 9 8 7 6 5
WEST Robot ♠ J 6 ♥ K 9 7 ♦ 9 8 6 4 2 ♣ 10 4 3		EAST Phillip ♠ 9 2 ♥ 8 6 5 4 ♦ A Q 10 5 3 ♣ A K
	SOUTH Robot ♠ Q 8 7 4 3 ♥ A J 3 2 ♦ K ♣ Q J 2

Plus 50 is worth 61%. Declarer didn't even try to make his contract? Why was he so sure the heart finesse was off--and that I had the doubleton club despite my carding? Weirdly, the declarers who were allowed to play three spades did finesse and suffered a club ruff. So everyone who played spades--either three or four--went down one. That seems backwards to me. In three, I would play safe for my contract. You don't want to go down in a partscore when some will be in game. In four, I would try to make it.

How about my double or save decision? If I double, we get 100%. If we save, we get 4%. Since we got well above average for passing, it was right not to flip a coin.

Free Weekly Instant Tournament - July 25 - Board 8

Board 8
Neither side vulnerable

♠ K 7 2  ♥ A K 9  ♦ A K 6  ♣ K 9 4 3

If you prefer, you can watch Alex describes the bidding and play on my YouTube channel:

Three passes to me. I have 23 casino points, so I'm not passing it out. I open with two notrump. Partner bids three hearts, a transfer to spades. I bid three spades, and partner bids three notrump.

When you open one notrump, you should pass this auction with a 4-3-3-3 pattern. When partner transfers and bids three notrump, he shows a balanced hand, since he would bid a second suit if he had one. After a two-notrump opening, however, partner doesn't have room to show a second suit unless he's willing to bid past three notrump. He could have a singleton. He could even be five-five. So declining to correct to four spades is dangerous.

Even if you knew partner was balanced, it still might be right to correct. When your high cards are concentrated in one hand, you often have communication problems in notrump.

Consider this: Partner has no slam interest, so the opponents, on balance, have more HCP than partner does. They also have the same number of spades. So the opponents are more likely to hold the spade ace than partner. If they can hold up twice, they may disconnect you from dummy. In spades, you can reach dummy with ruffs.

So, in my view, passing three notrump would be a mistake. I correct to four spades, and everyone passes. LHO leads the deuce of diamonds.

	NORTH Robot ♠ J 9 6 5 4 ♥ 6 5 ♦ Q J ♣ A 10 7 5
	♦ 2
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ K 7 2 ♥ A K 9 ♦ A K 6 ♣ K 9 4 3

West	North	East	South
Robot	Robot	Robot	Phillip
Pass	Pass	Pass	2 NT
Pass	3 ♥	Pass	3 ♠
Pass	3 NT	Pass	4 ♠
(All pass)

I probably have a club loser. So I'll need to hold my trump losers to two to make this. I can lead toward my spade king. If that loses to the ace, I can lead a spade from my hand and guess whether to play the nine or jack from dummy. Actually, it's not much of a guess. If West started with three spades, it's even money. But if he started with four, I must play the nine.

I win with the queen of diamond in dummy. East follows with the three. I play a low spade. East rises with the ace; West plays the three. That's a good start toward losing only two trump tricks.

East shifts to the ten of hearts--ace--seven--five.

If I had the eight of spades, I could consider protecting against a four-one break by going to dummy with the club ace and leading low to the eight. That gives up on an overtrick if West started with queen doubleton. But that's unlikely, since East probably wouldn't have hopped with ace third. Since I don't have the eight, it's moot. There is nothing I can do about four spades in East. I might as well cash the king of spades. I do. West plays the ten; East, the eight.

Now my only problem is the club suit. I could strip the red suits, then throw them in. Unfortunately, the only thing I have to throw them in with is a trump. With no trumps in my hand, they can then exit safely with a red card. Still, stripping the hand is worthwhile. In fact, it's worthwhile for two reasons.

I cash the king of hearts--eight--six--four, then ruff a heart in dummy. West plays the jack; East, the queen. Now ace and king of diamonds, pitching a club from dummy. I exit with a spade. West takes the queen, and East pitches the three of hearts. We're down to this position with West on lead:

	NORTH Robot ♠ J ♥ -- ♦ -- ♣ A 10 7
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ -- ♥ -- ♦ -- ♣ K 9 4 3

Reason one to strip the hand: If West began with four clubs, he's now endplayed. That reason doesn't pan out. He exits with a diamond. I ruff in dummy and East follows.

What's reason two? I now know no one started with four clubs. If I cashed a high club without stripping the hand and fourth hand dropped an honor, it would be right, by restricted choice, for me to finesse against the other honor. But now that I know no one has four clubs, no one can have a singleton honor. If an honor drops, I know to play for queen-jack doubleton.

So no more 20% boards for doing the right thing. By tightening up the position, we've found a way to outsmart restricted choice.

I plays a club to the king. Sadly, no honor drops. So I make only four.

	NORTH Robot ♠ J 9 6 5 4 ♥ 6 5 ♦ Q J ♣ A 10 7 5
WEST Robot ♠ Q 10 3 ♥ J 8 7 ♦ 8 5 4 2 ♣ J 6 2		EAST Robot ♠ A 8 ♥ Q 10 4 3 2 ♦ 10 9 7 3 ♣ Q 8
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ K 7 2 ♥ A K 9 ♦ A K 6 ♣ K 9 4 3

Plus 420 is worth 62%. That's surprising. It looks as if anyone who chooses to pass three notrump should luck out and score 430. Say West finds his best lead of a heart. You duck. They continue hearts. You win, lead a diamond to the queen and a spade up. East takes his ace--either on this trick or the next--and continues hearts. Now you drive the spade queen. West is out of hearts, so you take ten tricks.

I still think passing is right. Partner might have had a stiff heart instead of two small. Hearts might have been four-four. Or the late spade entry might have been in the hand with long hearts. It seems you need quite a bit of luck for three notrump to be right. You also need a modicum of skill. Two of the three players who played three notrump went down, which is why I scored above average for making four spades.

Be sure to play in this week's Free Weekly Instant Tournament on BBO. Then we can compare results over the next eight weeks. See you then.

Free Weekly Instant Tournament - July 25 - Board 7

Board 7
Both sides vulnerable

♠ A K 7 6 3  ♥ Q 10 8 2  ♦ A K 4  ♣ 7

I open with one spade in first seat. Partner bids one notrump. I rebid two hearts. Partner raises, and I go on to four hearts.

Alex describes the play on my YouTube channel. If you prefer, you can read on instead.

West leads the five of clubs.

	NORTH Robot ♠ Q 5 ♥ J 7 6 4 ♦ Q J 7 3 2 ♣ Q J
	♣ 5
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ A K 7 6 3 ♥ Q 10 8 2 ♦ A K 4 ♣ 7

West	North	East	South
Robot	Robot	Robot	Phillip
			1 ♠
Pass	1 NT	Pass	2 ♥
Pass	3 ♥	Pass	4 ♥
(All pass)

I'm off two high hearts and a club. I should be cold unless trumps are four-one.

How will the play go? East will win this trick and try to cash another club. I might as well ruff with the eight to unblock in case West has four trumps, It might not matter, but I don't see how ruffing with the eight can hurt.

After ruffing, I'll continue with the heart queen. The most awkward continuation is that they win and give me a ruff sluff. We saw last week how a ruff sluff can create problems for declarer. If the opponents are experts--or even if they read last week's blog--they might give me a ruff-sluff just to give me a headache. But it takes a good player to do that. If an average player--or an average robot--gives you a ruff-sluff, he probably has something in mind. And attacking your trumps because they aren't splitting is a likely reason.

Let's say I believe that's what's going on. (I'm not saying I will. I haven't decided yet.) Is there anything I can do if trumps are four-one? Maybe. As long as it's West who has the trump length.

The way to solve problems like this is to work backwards. Like solving a maze. Imagine the ending you want to reach, then figure out how to get there. If West is 2-4-3-4 or 3-4-2-4, I can strip him of all his pointed cards, but I can't strip him of that last club, so the ending will be four cards. Perhaps something like this, with the lead in my hand.

	NORTH Robot ♠ -- ♥ J 7 ♦ J 7 ♣ --
WEST Robot ♠ -- ♥ K 9 5 ♦ -- ♣ x
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ x x ♥ 10 2 ♦ -- ♣ --

If my spades are winners, I'm home. I lead a spade. If West ruffs, I overruff and ruff a diamond with the ten. No matter what West does, he can't score more than his high heart.

So how can I reach this ending? I'll need to cash five tricks and West must follow to all of them. If he has a doubleton diamond, I can cash only two diamonds, so, when they lead the third round of clubs, I must pitch a diamond and ruff in dummy:

	NORTH Robot ♠ Q 5 ♥ J 7 ♦ Q J 7 3 2 ♣ --
	♣ x ♦ A ♣ x ♥ 6
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ A K 7 6 3 ♥ 10 2 ♦ K 4 ♣ --

Now I cash two diamonds and dummy's queen of spades, reaching this position:

	NORTH Robot ♠ 5 ♥ J 7 ♦ J 7 3 ♣ --
	♠ Q ♠ x ♠ 3 ♠ x
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ A K 7 6 ♥ 10 2 ♦ -- ♣ --

West, I hope, is down to three trumps, a club, and either two spades or a spade and a diamond. I have to guess which. If he has another diamond, I cash a diamond and lead a spade to my hand, reaching the desired end position. If he has two spades, I cash the ace and king of spades to reach the same end position. Hopefully I have some clues by the time I have to decide.

Back to trick one. I play a club from dummy, and East takes the ace. Surprisingly, he doesn't play another club. He switches to the six of diamonds. What's that all about? I play the ace, and West ruffs with the three of hearts. Oh. That's what it's about. I've lost two tricks and I still have to lose to the ace and king of hearts. My only hope is the defense manages to crash them.

West plays the club king, and I ruff. I lead the queen of hearts. West plays the king. Crashing isn't going to do me any good now. If East wins with a stiff ace, he can just give his partner another diamond ruff to beat me.

East follows with the nine. West plays a heart to his partner's ace, and I claim. Down one.

	NORTH Robot ♠ Q 5 ♥ J 7 6 4 ♦ Q J 7 3 2 ♣ Q J
WEST Robot ♠ J 9 8 4 ♥ K 5 3 ♦ -- ♣ K 9 8 5 4 2		EAST Robot ♠ 10 2 ♥ A 9 ♦ 10 9 8 6 5 ♣ A 10 6 3
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ A K 7 6 3 ♥ Q 10 8 2 ♦ A K 4 ♣ 7

Minus 100 is dead average.

East did well to work out to shift to a diamond at trick two. West might have helped him out on opening lead. The way to do that is with an alarm-clock signal. An alarm clock is any card that partner can read as a lie. It wakes partner up and alerts him that you need him to do something unusual--often to give you ruff in a side suit.

Playing fourth best leads, the normal alarm clock is lowest from a known long suit. If West had overcalled or pre-empted in clubs, the deuce would wake East up immediately, since it can't be fourth best. In this case, the deuce probably wouldn't work, since East doesn't know that West doesn't have four clubs. The nine might work better. Note an unusual spot lead is not suit-preference. It simply suggests an unusual defense. It's up to partner to work out which suit you want returned.

If you play third and lowest opening leads, lowest from a long suit doesn't work as an alarm clock. Partner will simply assume you have an odd number. The systemic alarm clock is fourth best from five or six; fifth best from seven. That card is usually readable as a lie. In this case, if West were known to have long clubs, the five would wake East up. It can't be lowest from five. And it can't be third best from six, since that places declarer with the eight or nine--impossible since he has no more clubs. Unfortunately, West isn't known to have long clubs, so the five could be third best from four. It would be a silent alarm.

Speaking of alarm clocks, set yours for Sunday next week. Join me then for the last deal in this set.

Free Weekly Instant Tournament - July 25 - Board 6

Board 6
Opponents vulnerable

♠ K J 9 6 5 4  ♥ Q 2  ♦ A K 7 5  ♣ K

Several readers have complained about this blogger platform and their annoying ads, so I've been looking for another platform. I considered Substack. But I decided why not move into the 21st century? YouTube videos about bridge and chess have become quite popular, so why not give it a try?

It's a bit of work to produce them, but I think the presentation is better. It's certainly easier to follow the play when you have dynamic graphics. Give it a try and tell me what you think. For those who prefer reading to watching, the text version is below. But rest assured nothing is in the text that isn't also in the video:

I open with one spade in second seat and partner bids one notrump.

Should I rebid two spades or two diamonds? The answer depends on what I intend to do if partner rebids two notrump. If I intend to bid game, then I should bid two diamonds. Then, over two notrump, I can bid three spades, forcing. If I don't want to bid game, then I should bid two spades. Now, if partner bids two notrump, my three-diamond rebid is non-forcing. With this hand, I want to reach game if partner invites, so I bid two diamonds.

Partner takes a preference to two spades. A useful rule of thumb when partner shows a preference is to bid one less than you would have bid had he raised. If you would have bid game over a single raise, then invite. If you would have invited, then pass. I would have invited over an immediate two spade-bid, so I pass now.

Two spades ends the auction. West leads the four of clubs.

	NORTH Robot ♠ A 8 ♥ 9 3 ♦ Q 10 8 6 ♣ Q J 10 9 7
	♣ 4
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ K J 9 6 5 4 ♥ Q 2 ♦ A K 7 5 ♣ K

West	North	East	South
Robot	Robot	Robot	Phillip
		Pass	1 ♠
Pass	1 NT	Pass	2 ♦
Pass	2 ♠	Pass	(All pass)

I'm off three top tricks. Game depends on picking up the spade suit. I wouldn't mind being in game vulnerable at IMPs. But at matchpoints, I'm glad I stayed low.

I play low from dummy, and East takes the ace. He shifts to the jack of hearts. I cover with the queen, and West takes the ace. He continues with the five of hearts to East's king. West should be returning a count card: his highest heart to show an even number or his lowest to show an odd number. But the robots don't do that (much to my annoyance when I defend with them). So East doesn't know whether I have a third heart or not.

Given that, if East has queen third of spades, he will play another heart, trying to tap dummy, so I can't take a spade finesse. If I don't have a third heart, that will give me a ruff-sluff. But so what? East knows I have no loser to pitch, so a ruff-sluff won't help me.

When East leads a heart, I'll ruff in my hand and play a spade to the ace for a finesse. Is there anything I can do if East has queen fourth of spades? Maybe. If West's singleton is the ten, dummy's eight of spades will hold. Then I can ruff a club to my hand and play a diamond to dummy, reaching this position:

	NORTH Robot ♠ -- ♥ -- ♦ 10 8 ♣ Q J 10
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ K J ♥ -- ♦ A K 7 ♣ --

Now I lead clubs. If East ruffs, I overruff and claim. If he refuses to ruff, I pitch all my diamonds and coup him at trick twelve.

But East surprises me by shifting to the five of clubs. East might have queen doubleton of spades. But There's no way he has queen third and didn't try to tap dummy. Does that mean I should take a backwards finesse against West?

A backwards finesse picks up queen third or queen doubleton of spades in the West hand--three cases each for a total of six cases. Finessing against East picks up those same six cases in the East hand. In addition, it picks up queen-ten third (three cases) and queen-ten doubleton (one case), for a total of ten cases. Thus, a priori, and ignoring four-one breaks, the forward finesse is a 10 to 6 favorite. But knowing East can't have queen third or queen-ten third changes that. The odds are now 6 to 4 in favor of the backwards finesse.

Could I be wrong about this inference? I don't see how. There is no reason from East's point of view that I can't be 5-3-4-1. So if he has queen third of spades, a heart return is automatic.

I lead the jack of spades--three--eight--deuce. Yay!. Now a low spade--seven--ace--ten. And a diamond to my hand. That wins, and I claim ten tricks.

	NORTH Robot ♠ A 8 ♥ 9 3 ♦ Q 10 8 6 ♣ Q J 10 9 7
WEST Robot ♠ Q 7 3 ♥ A 8 7 6 5 ♦ J 4 ♣ 8 6 4		EAST Robot ♠ 10 2 ♥ K J 10 4 ♦ 9 3 2 ♣ A 5 3 2
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ K J 9 6 5 4 ♥ Q 2 ♦ A K 7 5 ♣ K

We didn't need to reach game. Plus 170 is worth 93%.

It was careless of East not to return a third heart. I would have no reason to take the backwards finesse if he did. Perhaps he was avoiding a possible ruff-sluff on principle. Inexperienced players often avoid giving ruff-sluffs, because they know it's sometimes a bad idea. But if you know declarer has no losers to pitch, a ruff-sluff is something you should routinely consider. It can't hurt. And sometimes good things happen.

For example, change my hand to

♠ K J x x x  ♥ Q x  ♦ K J x x  ♣ K x

What do I do if East plays a third heart at trick four? If I ruff in dummy, I can no longer take a spade finesse. If I ruff in my hand, I'm in danger of being tapped out. I would hate to find myself in that position.

And yes. I know. If East held the queen of spades and could see my hand, failing to play a heart to talk me into a backward finesse would be a very clever play. But he can't see my hand. And, frankly, this East isn't that clever even if he could see it.