Free Weekly Instant Tournament - September 19 - Board 6

Alex also discusses this deal in Gargoyle Chronicle's YouTube channel:

Board 6
Opponents vulnerable

♠ Q J  ♥ J 5 2  ♦ A Q 10 5 4 3  ♣ A 3

Pass on my right. I'm sure some will open with one notrump, letting the six-card suit compensate for the missing high-card point. I'm not averse to opening one notrump with a six-card minor. But this hand doesn't look good enough to me. A strong notrump typically has three and a half to four honor tricks. This hand has a little better than two and half.

I open with one diamond. LHO overcalls with one heart, partner makes a negative double, and RHO raises to two hearts. It's a flaw in the robots' methods that I can't bid with this hand. But I can't. Partner would expect a much better hand for three diamonds, and two notrump is natural. I pass perforce. LHO also passes, and partner reopens with a double.

I think this double should be "take-out" of opener's suit, in other words, promising at least three hearts, at least three clubs, and no more than two diamonds. With that understanding, I would pass. But the robots play this double as virtually meaningless. It says nothing other than that partner doesn't want to sell out. I don't see how that's playable. You need some agreement as to responder's possible shapes to be able to make an intelligent decision. But my robot partner refuses to listen to my suggestions. So I guess to pull to three diamonds.

Everyone passes, and West leads the king of hearts.

	NORTH Robot ♠ 7 6 5 2 ♥ A 8 6 ♦ K 8 6 ♣ J 6 2
	♥ K
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ Q J ♥ J 5 2 ♦ A Q 10 5 4 3 ♣ A 3

West	North	East	South
Robot	Robot	Robot	Phillip
		Pass	1 ♦
1 ♥	Double	2 ♥	Pass
Pass	Double	Pass	3 ♦
(All pass)

West overcalled in a four-card heart suit? That suggests he doesn't have the right shape for a take-out double. He probably has a doubleton spade. Most likely 2-4-3-4. This is going to be a surprise to East. East will think I have a doubleton heart and will miscount my hand. Perhaps I can make use of that at some point.

I duck in dummy. East plays the four, and I "encourage" with the five.

West doesn't fall for it. He shifts to the ten of clubs. I don't want East on play for a heart through, so I duck in dummy, and, when East plays the seven, I duck in my hand as well.

West continues with the nine of clubs. I play low. This time East contributes the king and I take my ace.

Why did East play the club king? It's easy to gloss over such matters. But any time an opponent does something unexpected, it's worth pausing to figure out why. If you can, it may reveal the whole layout to you.

One possibility is he has king-queen and is giving suit preference for spades. At least that would be a possibility if East were human. But the robots don't play suit preference, so that can't be it. Perhaps he has king small and doesn't want to win the third round of clubs. He is unblocking, so his partner can win the queen. That means he started with three clubs, making West 2-4-2-5 instead of 2-4-3-4. East, however, will be assuming his partner is 2-5-2-4.

It also means West has the only club guard, and I have the matrix for a club-heart squeeze against him. If I can come down to a position like this with the lead in my hand:

	NORTH Robot ♠ -- ♥ A 8 ♦ -- ♣ J
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ -- ♥ J 2 ♦ 3 ♣ --

then I have him. But I don't see how I'm going to reach that position. East can destroy the matrix with a heart shift, and either opponent can force to me to ruff the club jack.

I cash the queen of diamonds--deuce--six--nine. Now the ace of diamonds. West plays the jack. The king and eight are now equals. I might as well unblock to keep maximum flexibility. I play the king; East plays the seven.

Diamonds were two-two, so it appears I'm right that West is 2-4-2-5. Is there any way to make this? Here is the current position with the lead in my hand:

	NORTH Robot ♠ 7 6 5 2 ♥ A 8 ♦ 8 ♣ J
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ Q J ♥ J 2 ♦ 10 5 4 3 ♣ --

Suppose I exit with a spade and the defense, fast asleep, cashes two spades and plays a third one. Now the squeeze is intact. That would be a poor defense, but it looks like my only chance.

I lead the queen of spades--nine--deuce--king. East shifts to the eight of clubs. Well, that kills the squeeze. But if West's last spade is the ace, I can now endplay him. I ruff and lead the jack of spades. West takes the ace and exits with the queen of hearts. Making three.

	NORTH Robot ♠ 7 6 5 2 ♥ A 8 6 ♦ K 8 6 ♣ J 6 2
WEST Robot ♠ A 9 ♥ K Q 10 3 ♦ J 2 ♣ Q 10 9 5 4		EAST Robot ♠ K 10 8 4 3 ♥ 9 7 4 ♦ 9 7 ♣ K 8 7
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ Q J ♥ J 5 2 ♦ A Q 10 5 4 3 ♣ A 3

I wasn't even thinking about an endplay. It just fell into my lap on the way to the squeeze. East wasn't thinking about it either. Stripping partner of his exit card was not the right idea. But East presumably still thought his partner had five hearts and that his play didn't matter. It's hard--for both humans and robots--to back off an assumption you've made earlier. But sometimes you need to. When you think your play doesn't matter is precisely when you need to pause and revisit your assumptions. 

Plus 110 is worth 100%. I was the only one to go plus. I suppose opening one notrump would have worked also. If I open one notrump, I would probably play it there. I have eight top tricks, so that's an easier way to go plus. But this way was more fun.

Free Weekly Instant Tournament - September 19 - Board 5

Board 5
Our side vulnerable

♠ A Q 7 4  ♥ A Q 10 9 2  ♦ 9 8  ♣ 7 2

You can also follow this board on the Gargoyle Chronicles YouTube channel:

Two passes to me. Good thing I'm in third seat. This would be a problem in first or second seat when partner's one notrump response would be forcing.

I open with one heart. Partner bids two clubs, Drury, showing a limit raise in hearts. I don't have an acceptance, but I do have a full opening bid. If partner's had re-evaluates to an opening bid in support of hearts, I want to be in game. So I bid two diamonds, artificial, to show a full opening. Partner isn't interested. He bids two hearts. I pass. West leads the deuce of spades.

	NORTH Robot ♠ K 10 6 ♥ J 8 6 ♦ K 6 ♣ Q J 10 9 4
	♠ 2
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ A Q 7 4 ♥ A Q 10 9 2 ♦ 9 8 ♣ 7 2

West	North	East	South
Robot	Robot	Robot	Phillip
	Pass	Pass	1 ♥
Pass	2 ♣	Pass	2 ♦
Pass	2 ♥	(All pass)

I have four heart tricks and three spades. I need one more. The heart finesse could be on, or I could have a fourth spade trick, or the diamond ace could be onside.

I could insert the ten of spades. Then I would take four spade tricks if spades were three-three or if West led from jack fourth. But if the ten is covered, I'm awkwardly placed. If I win, play a spade to dummy, and lose a heart finesse, I could suffer a spade ruff. I think it's better to play the spade king to ensure I'm in dummy for the heart finesse. That gives up on jack fourth on my left. But I still have three-three spades or jack doubleton on my right.

I rise with spade king. RHO plays the three. I lead the eight of hearts--seven--deuce--king.

West returns the five of hearts. East plays the three, and I win in my hand with the nine. I cash the ace of spades to see if the jack drops. It doesn't. West plays the nine; East, the five.

I still have a shot at avoiding a spade loser even if they aren't three-three. I can cash another spade. If East ruffs, I haven't lost anything, since I can now ruff my spade loser in dummy. I've simply traded a spade loser for a heart loser. But if East happens to have started with two-two in majors, I gain a trick.

I cash the spade queen--jack--ten--four. So the jack was onside. I would have survived playing the ten at trick one.

I draw the last trump. West pitches the eight of clubs. That's presumably count, so West is 3-2-4-4. If the diamond ace is onside, I'm making an overtrick.

Let's assume it's offside. Is there anything I can do? If East has both club honors, I can exit with a club and endplay him. Is that possible? Ace of diamond and ace-king of clubs give him 11 HCP. But West would have led a diamond from queen-jack rather than a spade from jack third. So if East must have the queen or jack as well, which gives him an opening bid. So West must have a club honor. 

A club exit might work anyway. If I play a club and West hops and plays another club, then East is endplayed. That would be a terrible defense. But it doesn't hurt to try. I see nothing better. I play the deuce of clubs. West plays low; East takes the ace and returns a club to West's king. West shifts to the three of diamonds. There is no way my robot opponent is giving me a chance to take the rest of the tricks. The ace must be offside. My only chance is to duck. 

I play low. East wins with the jack and cashes the diamond ace. Making two.

	NORTH Robot ♠ K 10 6 ♥ J 8 6 ♦ K 6 ♣ Q J 10 9 4
WEST Robot ♠ J 9 2 ♥ K 5 ♦ 10 5 3 2 ♣ K 8 6 5		EAST Robot ♠ 8 5 3 ♥ 7 4 3 ♦ A Q J 7 4 ♣ A 3
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ A Q 7 4 ♥ A Q 10 9 2 ♦ 9 8 ♣ 7 2

Plus 110 is worth 57%.

I ducked the diamond king only because I was playing against robots, who don't signal. A human West would lead high with no diamond honor, so after a low lead, East would never fly ace with ace-jack. 

Let's give West the diamond ace, assume he is human, and take a look at this problem from his point of view:

	NORTH ♠ -- ♥ -- ♦ K 6 ♣ Q J 10 9 4
WEST ♠ -- ♥ -- ♦ A 10 5 2 ♣ K 6 5	♣ 2

Declarer leads the deuce of clubs. You duck to partner's ace. Partner returns a club to your king. Should you underlead your ace, hoping declarer has the jack and misguesses? Or should you just cash it? After all, if declarer doesn't have jack doubleton and realizes you're human, he has no guess. So you may be risking overtricks with no chance to gain.

The answer is: You absolutely should lead low. For three reasons: 

1. Cashing the ace is an insult to partner. If partner doesn't have queen--or if he has queen-jack--or if he knows from your club count that declarer has a stiff diamond, then he shouldn't play a club to your king. He should play a diamond to prevent the underlead. So declarer must have jack doubleton. And partner didn't put you on play to see you wimp out.
   
   
2. If you underlead, declarer will probably go wrong. If you have the queen, you must lead low. If you have the ace, you could cash it. So ducking is his percentage play.
   
   
3. It's important to have a reputation for being tough. Tough opponents are hard to play against. You have to worry they are making plays others won't even think of. So, even if declarer gets it right and you drop a trick, you will earn dividends in the long run. And if declarer does get it right, you should thank him for the compliment. He's assuming you would underlead the ace 100% of the time.
   
   

Free Weekly Instant Tournament - September 19 - Board 4

Board 4
Both sides vulnerable

♠ K 6 5  ♥ A K Q 5  ♦ A Q 6 4  ♣ K 10

Alex covers the deal on YouTube. She must have been watching Sam Spade movies lately. She decided to go noirish on this one:

RHO opens with one club. I double, intending to rebid one notrump to show 19 to 21 HCP, balanced. LHO passes, partner bids one diamond, and RHO bids an impertinent one heart.

The opponents might be in trouble here. But they are only at the one-level, I have four-card support for partner's suit, and they could have a playable spot in clubs. It might not hurt to double just in case they are in trouble. But the robots don't do well when the auction gets complicated. It seems wiser just to bid my hand and keep the auction simple. 

I bid one notrump, and partner bids two hearts, which the tooltip says shows 5+ HCP and is forcing to three notrump. Why didn't partner just bid three notrump? No idea. But if he wants to know more about my hand, it would be remiss of me not to show him my good diamond support. So I bid three diamonds. Partner bids three notrump.

Still not sure what that cue-bid was all about. But if my three-diamond bid doesn't excite him, so be it. I pass, and LHO leads the deuce of hearts.

	NORTH Robot ♠ 10 8 2 ♥ 7 ♦ 10 8 5 ♣ 9 8 7 6 5 4
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ K 6 5 ♥ A K Q 5 ♦ A Q 6 4 ♣ K 10

West	North	East	South
Robot	Robot	Robot	Phillip
Pass	Pass	1 ♣	Double
Pass	1 ♦	1 ♥	1 NT
Pass	2 ♥	Pass	3 ♦
Pass	3 NT	(All pass)

The sight of dummy does not enlighten me as to what partner had in mind with two hearts. He really wanted to force to game with 0 HCP opposite 19 to 21?

His proper bid over one notrump was two clubs. When the opponents bid two suits, the suit you can't have is a cue-bid, and the one you might have is natural. Here, partner can't have hearts when he didn't bid them over the double. But he might have clubs. And I've shown club tolerance with my one-notrump bid. So two clubs should be natural--and to play.

Anyway, I have to do what I can in three notrump. What's East's shape? With a stiff diamond, he might have doubled one diamond. Perhaps he's 2-4-2-5? Maybe he has a doubleton king of diamonds. If so, I can duck it out, then eventually throw the opponents in to lead a black suit for me. 

I play a low heart from dummy, and East plays the ten. A common mistake is to win the ace in this situation. That simply advertises you are well-heeled in the suit. With ace alone, you would be ducking. So the king or queen is more deceptive than the ace. The queen is marginally better. There are holdings where West will lead the queen from queen-jack, so, if East doesn't have the jack, he may already suspect you have the queen. If East had played the jack instead of the ten, the king would be better. Now neither opponent knows you have the queen.

I win with the queen. I'm going to try to duck out the diamond king, but I might as well cash the ace first. Good thing I do. West plays the deuce and East drops the king.

So East did have a stiff diamond. He surely would have doubled with 4-4-1-4, so he must be 3-4-1-5. I can now reach dummy with the diamond ten to lead up to one of my kings. Perhaps I can force the opponents to lead up to the other one. That would make three diamond tricks, three hearts tricks, and two kings for an impressive down one.

I play a diamond. West hops with the jack, and East discards the three of clubs. The three? The robots give count when discarding, so if he has all five outstanding clubs, he would be discarding the deuce. Is he 4-4-1-4 after all?

West continues with the three of hearts. I pitch a club from dummy, and East plays the nine. He shouldn't have that card. The ten at trick one was apparently a falsecard.

I win with the king and lead a diamond to dummy's ten. West plays the three, and East pitches the heart four. We've presumably reached this position, with the lead in dummy:

	NORTH Robot ♠ 10 8 2 ♥ -- ♦ -- ♣ 9 8 7 6 5
WEST Robot ♠ ? ? x ♥ x x ♦ 9 7 ♣ ?		EAST Robot ♠ A ? ? x ♥ x ♦ -- ♣ A ? ?
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ K 6 5 ♥ A 5 ♦ Q ♣ K 10

Which king should I lead up to? If I lead a spade to my king, the opponents will have three spade tricks. If I lead a club to my king, they will have only two club tricks. Seems better to lead a club.

I play a club. East hops with the ace, and West follows with the jack. East continues with the six of hearts, which I take with the ace. Now we've reached this position, with the lead in my hand:

	NORTH Robot ♠ 10 8 2 ♥ -- ♦ -- ♣ 9 8 7
WEST Robot ♠ ? ? x ♥ 8 ♦ 9 7 ♣ --		EAST Robot ♠ A ? ? x ♥ -- ♦ -- ♣ Q 2
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ K 6 5 ♥ 5 ♦ Q ♣ K

If I cash the queen of diamonds and toss West in with a heart, he can cash one diamond, on which I pitch a spade. Then he must lead a spade, and I'll take the last two tricks for down one. Sounds good to me. That's what I do.

	NORTH Robot ♠ 10 8 2 ♥ 7 ♦ 10 8 5 ♣ 9 8 7 6 5 4
WEST Robot ♠ 9 7 3 ♥ J 8 3 2 ♦ J 9 7 3 2 ♣ J		EAST Robot ♠ A Q J 4 ♥ 10 9 6 4 ♦ K ♣ A Q 3 2
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ K 6 5 ♥ A K Q 5 ♦ A Q 6 4 ♣ K 10

Minus 100 is worth 93%. Three notrump was a popular contract, but most declarers did not manage eight tricks.

Did East err in playing the third heart? He lost his second club trick that way. This was the position when East exited with a heart:

	NORTH Robot ♠ 10 8 2 ♥ -- ♦ -- ♣ 9 8 7 6
WEST Robot ♠ 9 7 3 ♥ J 8 ♦ 9 7 ♣ --		EAST Robot ♠ A Q J 4 ♥ 6 ♦ -- ♣ Q 2
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ K 6 5 ♥ A 5 ♦ Q ♣ K

Can he beat me two if he plays another club? No, I guess not. I can't endplay West anymore. But I can endplay East, since he has all the spade honors. I cash the heart ace and the diamond queen. Then I lead a spade to the eight. East can't reach his partner and must give me my spade king at the end.

Free Weekly Instant Tournament - September 19 - Board 3

 

Board 3
Opponents vulnerable

♠ J 3  ♥ A Q 8 6 4  ♦ A Q 8 5 3  ♣ 6

If you prefer, you can watch Alex take you through Board 3 on Gargoyle's YouTube channel:

I open with one heart in first seat. LHO overcalls with two clubs. Partner raises to two hearts. And RHO bids three clubs. Partner's perfect minimum is king third in both red suits, which makes four hearts cold on normal breaks. So my hand is worth an invitation. 

I suspect the field won't be inviting. I would count this as 15 total points after the raise, which isn't worth an invitation. But point count undervalues concentrated strength.

The loser-counters, however, might go to the other extreme and blast game. Five losers, in theory, is worth a four-heart bid. They're wrong, too, in my opinion. Loser count overvalues hands where fit is important. In general, when some people will be content with a part score and others will be blasting game, the baby-bear approach is usually right.

I bid three diamonds, and partner accepts with four hearts. Everyone passes and LHO leads the jack of clubs.

	NORTH Robot ♠ 5 4 2 ♥ K 10 9 7 ♦ 10 7 4 2 ♣ A Q
	♣ J
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ J 3 ♥ A Q 8 6 4 ♦ A Q 8 5 3 ♣ 6

West	North	East	South
Robot	Robot	Robot	Phillip
			1 ♥
2 ♣	2 ♥	3 ♣	3 ♦
Pass	4 ♥	(All pass)

Since I think a fair percentage of the field will not reach game, my primary concern is making this. So what's my best chance? Should I take the club finesse to pitch a spade?

A vulnerable two-level overcall on a jack-high suit is unlikely, but it's not unheard of. And I might not need the club finesse. If I can take four diamond tricks, I can afford to lose two spades.

I can take four diamond tricks any time diamonds are two-two, which is 40% of the time. 50% of the time they will split three-one one way or the other. Of the eight ways they can split three-one, I can pick up stiff king or jack in either hand. So that's an additional 25%, bringing my total chances up to 65%. 

Actually, I'm wrong. It's better than that. West probably would have led a stiff small or stiff jack of diamonds. So that reduces the denominator. Let's try this again.

If we eliminate the likely diamond leads, we come up with the following table. For each of West's possible holdings, the tables shows whether we can achieve our goal. If we go up with the club ace, our goal is four tricks. If we finesse and it loses, we need five tricks.

Diamond Layout

West	East	Cases	4 tricks	5 tricks
♦ --	♦ K J x x	1
♦ K	♦ J x x	1	Y
♦ K J	♦ x x	1	Y
♦ K x	♦ J x	2	Y
♦ J x	♦ K x	2	Y	Y
♦ x x	♦ K J	1	Y	Y
♦ K x x	♦ J	1	Y
♦ K J x	♦ x	2
♦ J x x	♦ K	1	Y
♦ K J x x	♦ --	1

Now we can calculate out chance of success. The percentages aren't exact, because the cases are not equally likely. But it's a good approximation.

Goal	Cases	Percentage
4 tricks	9 / 13	0.69
5 tricks	3 / 13	0.23

If I go up with the ace, I'll make 69% of the time. What if I finesse? I'll make if the finesse works. I'll make even if the finesse loses if I can take five diamond tricks. If I judge the finesse to be 60%, then finessing works 60% of the time plus 23% of the remaining 40%, or about 69% of the time total. So that's the over-under. If I think the finesse is better than 60%, I should finesse. If not, I should go up.

60% sounds conservative to me. So I'll take over. I play the queen. East plays the three. I pitch a spade on the ace of clubs. East plays the seven; West, the deuce. I play the ten of hearts to my ace to guard against a four-one break. Deuce from East; three from West.

I want to make sure I end up in dummy after the third round of hearts, so I cash the queen next. West discards the seven of spades. I unblock the nine to stay flexible. Now a heart to dummy's king. West discards the king of clubs. I've reached this position with the lead in dummy.

	NORTH Robot ♠ 5 4 2 ♥ 7 ♦ 10 7 4 2 ♣ --
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ J ♥ 8 6 ♦ A Q 8 5 3 ♣ --

As long as I don't lose three diamond tricks, I've made this. I play the deuce of diamonds from dummy. East plays the six.

My instincts say to cover with the eight. Now I can't go down. If I play the queen... Oh, I still can't go down. If West shows out, I lose a spade and two diamonds. This is why I don't listen to my instincts.

I play the queen. West wins with the king and returns the nine. I claim eleven tricks.

	NORTH Robot ♠ 5 4 2 ♥ K 10 9 7 ♦ 10 7 4 2 ♣ A Q
WEST Robot ♠ K 9 7 6 ♥ 3 ♦ K 9 ♣ K J 10 9 8 2		EAST Robot ♠ A Q 10 8 ♥ J 5 2 ♦ J 6 ♣ 7 5 4 3
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ J 3 ♥ A Q 8 6 4 ♦ A Q 8 5 3 ♣ 6

Plus 650 is worth 100%. I was right the field didn't try for game. Only two other pairs reached game, and they both made only four. 

In retrospect, I missed a key inference in my analysis. I said that if the club finesse lost, I had a 23% chance of taking five diamonds tricks. But that's not true. Given West's failure to lead a spade, the best he can have in spades is ace-queen. If he's missing the club king, that doesn't leave him with much for his overcall. If the club finesse loses, the diamond king is almost surely offside.

That means the over-under for taking the finesse is 69%, not 60. I think I'd still take over. But it's a lot closer.

Free Weekly Instant Tournament - September 19 - Board 2

Board 2
Our side vulnerable

♠ K 2  ♥ Q 9 6 4  ♦ A Q 5 4  ♣ J 10 3

The link to the YouTube episode for this deal is below:

I open one diamond in second seat. Partner bids two notrump, invitational. I have nothing extra, so I pass. RHO leads the six of spades.

	NORTH Phillip ♠ K 2 ♥ Q 9 6 4 ♦ A Q 5 4 ♣ J 10 3
	SOUTH Robot ♠ A 8 3 ♥ A 8 7 ♦ K J 6 ♣ 6 5 4 2

West	North	East	South
Robot	Phillip	Robot	Robot
Pass	1 ♦	Pass	2 NT
(All pass)

I have seven top tricks. If the king of hearts is with West, I can develop the heart queen for my eighth. But if I lead to the queen of hearts and it loses to the king, I’m out of chances. The opponents will clear spades and have lots of black tricks ready to cash if I give up the lead again.

Is there anything else to try instead? There’s the intra-finesse in hearts. I can float the seven, then lead the queen, hoping to pin jack- or ten-doubleton on my left. True, that's an unlikely layout. It's much more likely the king is onside. But if I have some reason to believe it's offside, the intra-finesse is worth considering. If I lead a heart toward the queen and West ducks, is that sufficient reason? How likely is West to hop with the king if he has it?

Sometimes it's a bad idea at notrump to let declarer sneak a trick through early. Change the deal to something like this:

	NORTH Phillip ♠ K 2 ♥ Q 9 6 ♦ A Q 7 5 4 ♣ J 10 3
	SOUTH Robot ♠ A 8 3 ♥ A 8 7 ♦ J 10 6 ♣ Q 6 5 4

If the diamond finesse works, I have eight tricks. If I take the finesse and it loses, I'm likely to go down. So I might try a heart to the queen at trick two. If West has the king and ducks, I'm home. 

But in that layout, the heart play is suspicious. West knows I have at most three hearts. When declarer attacks a suit to develop only one trick, an alarm should go off. West should probably realize declarer is trying to sneak a trick through to gain a tempo. So he should hop and clear spades.

The actual deal isn't going to set off an alarm. There is nothing suspicious about attacking dummy's four-card suit, so West has no compelling reason to hop. If I play a heart toward dummy and West plays low, going for the intra-finesse would be well against the odds. 

Should I duck trick one? The opponents have communication in clubs, so I don’t see much to gain by ducking. I play low from dummy, East plays the jack, and I take the ace. West is marked with the ten, but I don't know who has the queen.

I could run diamonds first, then lead a heart to the ace and another heart. But I don't want to advertise that I'm wide open in clubs.

Next question: Should I play ace and a heart--or just lead a low one? A low heart to the queen would be embarrassing if East has a stiff king. But is that likely? It means West chose to lead a spade with jack-ten fifth of hearts. And cashing the ace first leaves me open to going down two or more if the queen loses to the king. Leading low looks better. And the eight looks better than the seven, since it might tempt West to cover with the ten.

I lead the eight of hearts. West hops with the king, and East plays the deuce. So I've made my contract. It's all about overtricks now.

West shifts to the queen of spades. I win in dummy, and East plays the four. So West has queen-ten of spades. He probably doesn't have the nine, else he would have led the ten. So the possibilities are Q106, Q1076, or Q10765. Q106 is unlikely. He might have led the ten to start an unblock if chose to lead from that holding.

I cash three rounds of diamonds, ending in dummy. Diamonds were three-three. On the fourth diamond, East pitches the five of spades. OK. We've eliminated Q10765 in the West hand. West appears to have started with four spades. I pitch the deuce of clubs: East pitches the eight of clubs.

We've reached this position with the lead in dummy:

	NORTH Phillip ♠ -- ♥ Q 9 6 ♦ -- ♣ J 10 3
	SOUTH Robot ♠ 8 ♥ A 7 ♦ -- ♣ 6 5 4

I lead a heart from dummy--ten--ace--five. Now a heart from my hand. West plays the three. Do I finesse, playing West for king-jack fourth, or do I go up, playing for a three-three split?

 If my construction is right, West began with either

♠ Q 10 7 6  ♥ K J 5 3  ♦ 9 3 2  ♣ ? 8

or

♠ Q 10 7 6  ♥ K 5 3  ♦ 9 3 2  ♣ ? ? 8.

By restricted choice, the finesse is two-to-one to be right. The fact that a doubleton club is less likely than a tripleton reduces that somewhat. It's more like three to two. But more important than the a priori odds is the fact that hopping with king-jack fourth of hearts is dangerous. If East has ten doubleton, hopping lets me take three heart tricks; ducking holds me to two. It's true that hopping from king third takes me off a guess if his partner has the jack--a guess I rate to get wrong. So it's arguably a mistake to hop with either holding. But at least hopping with king third won't cost a trick by force. I think that's the mistake a robot, who doesn't think about taking you off guesses, is more apt to make. So it looks right to go up with the queen.

Another reason to go up: I'm in two notrump. Playing for overtricks in two notrump is seldom a good idea. You don't want to jeopardize your plus score when some will be going minus in a game. So, even if I thought finessing was the percentage play, it would have to be a pretty high percentage before I risked it.

I rise with the queen. East drops the jack. Making three.

	NORTH Phillip ♠ K 2 ♥ Q 9 6 4 ♦ A Q 5 4 ♣ J 10 3
WEST Robot ♠ Q 10 7 6 ♥ K 5 3 ♦ 9 3 2 ♣ A Q 8		EAST Robot ♠ J 9 5 4 ♥ J 10 2 ♦ 10 8 7 ♣ K 9 7
	SOUTH Robot ♠ A 8 3 ♥ A 8 7 ♦ K J 6 ♣ 6 5 4 2

Four pairs played three notrump and made it. That's taking quite a position to accept with the North hand. Maybe they though two notrump was forcing? Fortunately, five pairs managed to misplay two notrump. So plus 150 is worth 54%.

Free Weekly Instant Tournament - September 19 - Board 1

Board 1
Neither side vulnerable

♠ 9 2  ♥ 8 6 5 4  ♦ A Q 10 5 3  ♣ A K

Unsurprisingly, Alex bid and played this hand exactly as I did and for exactly the same reasons. You can watch her analysis on my YouTube channel:

Two passes to me. I open with one diamond, LHO bids one spade, partner bids three diamonds (weak), and RHO bids three spades.

We have a ten-card diamond fit, so the Law says I should compete to the four-level. Even so, I wouldn't compete with no expectation of beating four spades. Four diamonds here is called a "one-under bid." Normally, a player who pre-empts is out of the auction and leaves further decisions to partner. But a bid one under the opponents' game invites him back in. Specifically, it invites him to double if he has good defense for his pre-empt. Since I have three likely tricks on defense, I would be happy to hear partner double.

I bid four diamonds, and LHO goes on to four spades--pass--pass back to me.

Given partner didn't double, should I sacrifice in five diamonds? It seems unlikely that five diamonds will go down three, so it will be a good save if four spades makes.

At IMPs, the answer is clearly "no." I have decent chances to beat this. Even the queen of spades in partner's hand might be enough if declarer decides to hook me for it. And the upside is small even if saving is right. I'm risking eight imps to gain three. So at IMPs, I would pass and hope for the best. At matchpoints, however, some would argue that passing isn't allowed. If I think four spades is 51% to go down, I should double. If I think it's 51% to go make, I should save. Passing, they say, can never be the percentage action.

That argument would hold if it were likely that four spades or five diamonds would be played at every table. And that everyone would take the same number of tricks in those contracts. But that's not necessarily the case here.

For example, if some tables play in three spades making, a five-diamond sacrifice risks more than it stands to gain. If four spades makes, saving picks up half a matchpoint for every pair in four spades or five diamonds. If it goes down, conceding 300 in five diamonds loses half a matchpoint to those same pairs plus a full matchpoint for every pair in three spades. So even if four spades is a slight favorite to make, saving is not the percentage action.

Similarly, if four spades makes five at some tables and we find the defense to hold it to four, a double will have cost more than it stood to gain. If that scenario is possible, a slight chance of beating four spades isn't sufficient to double.

It looks to me like pretty much a toss-up whether four spades makes or not. So I pass. Partner leads the four of diamonds.

	NORTH Robot ♠ A K 10 5 ♥ Q 10 ♦ J 7 ♣ 9 8 7 6 5
	♦ 4	EAST Phillip ♠ 9 2 ♥ 8 6 5 4 ♦ A Q 10 5 3 ♣ A K

West	North	East	South
Robot	Robot	Phillip	Robot
Pass	Pass	1 ♦	1 ♠
3 ♦	3 ♠	4 ♦	4 ♠
(All pass)

I take the ace, dropping declarer's king. We have three top tricks. If partner has queen third of clubs or a heart trick, we can beat this--provided we defend correctly. If partner has queen third of clubs, I must unblock. Give declarer

(A) ♠ Q J x x x  ♥ A K x x ♦ K  ♣ x x x .

If don't unblock, he can strip the hand and endplay me. On the other hand, if partner has the king of hearts, I may need to lead a heart before cashing the clubs. If declarer has

(B) ♠ Q J x x x x  ♥ A x x ♦ K  ♣ Q J x ,

then if I cash clubs and play a heart, declarer can win, draw trump, and pitch both his heart losers on dummy's clubs. It's true hand (B) gives partner

♠ x  ♥ K J x x ♦ x x x x x  ♣ x x x ,

in which case he might have made a negative double. But I, for one, wouldn't. The opponents have the master suit. If we outbid them, it won't be in a four-four heart fit. It will be because we have a massive diamond fit. So three diamonds looks better than a negative double.

How do I decide what to do? Playing with a partner I trust, I would cash the club king. If partner has the heart king, he will discourage, and I'll shift to a heart.

My robot partner is no help, however. I'll have to decide what to do on my own. (A) is more likely than (B) a priori, since it gives declarer a more balanced distribution in the majors. In addition, if partner happens to have the ace of hearts or if he has the king and declarer finesses when I shift, cashing both clubs will result in down two. So cashing clubs looks right.

Next question: What order should I cash my clubs in? If I were hoping for a signal, I would have to cash the king first. Since I intend to cash both of them whatever partner plays, perhaps I should cash the ace first to show my doubleton. But is that really necessary? If I cash two clubs and play a heart to partner, there is nothing for partner to do but return a club and hope I ruff it. He knows a diamond isn't cashing. And a heart return is playing me for the other heart honor, which declarer must have for his four-spade bid. So there is no reason to telegraph my doubleton to declarer. If he's missing the heart king, I want him to think it's safe to finesse. 

I cash the king of clubs--deuce--three--five. Now ace of clubs--jack--four--six. Now the eight of hearts.

Declarer rises with the ace of hearts, draws trump, and concedes a heart trick for down one.

	NORTH Robot ♠ A K 10 5 ♥ Q 10 ♦ J 7 ♣ 9 8 7 6 5
WEST Robot ♠ J 6 ♥ K 9 7 ♦ 9 8 6 4 2 ♣ 10 4 3		EAST Phillip ♠ 9 2 ♥ 8 6 5 4 ♦ A Q 10 5 3 ♣ A K
	SOUTH Robot ♠ Q 8 7 4 3 ♥ A J 3 2 ♦ K ♣ Q J 2

Plus 50 is worth 61%. Declarer didn't even try to make his contract? Why was he so sure the heart finesse was off--and that I had the doubleton club despite my carding? Weirdly, the declarers who were allowed to play three spades did finesse and suffered a club ruff. So everyone who played spades--either three or four--went down one. That seems backwards to me. In three, I would play safe for my contract. You don't want to go down in a partscore when some will be in game. In four, I would try to make it.

How about my double or save decision? If I double, we get 100%. If we save, we get 4%. Since we got well above average for passing, it was right not to flip a coin.