Jaz Hands - Board 16

Board 16
Neither side vulnerable

Today we conclude Jazlene's SEABF Mixed Team match. She's up six imps going into the last board. Can she hang on?

♠ 4  ♥ K 10 7 6 2  ♦ K Q 9 7 3  ♣ 9 4

LHO opens one spade. The opponents play Precision, so one spade is limited to 15 high-card points. Partner passes, and RHO bids two clubs. This could be a doubleton. They would bid two clubs with any balanced game force--even with primary spade support. 

We pass, and LHO bids two spades, promising six. RHO raises to three spades. LHO bids four clubs, a cue-bid--either first or second-round control.

I don't care for that agreement. It's too early to cue-bid. Your first job in a slam auction is to decide whether you have a shot at twelve tricks. Only then do you worry about whether the opponents can take the first two. That means your initial slam try should be aimed at determining how well your hands fit. It's hard for responder to evaluate his hand if opener's first slam try could be either ace fourth or a singleton. When opener has shown only one suit, his first slam try should be natural. It should be at least a three-card suit and should neither confirm nor deny a control in that suit. It says that cards in that suit are useful. Essentially, it's a help-suit slam try.

There is a famous Spingold deal illustrating this point that was played by Phillip Martin and Henry Bethe. Phillip opened two clubs with

♠ A K Q J 4 ♥ A K ♦ A ♣ J 8 7 5 4

Henry bid two diamonds, waiting. Phillip bid two spades, and Henry raised to three. Phillip bid four clubs. Henry jumped to seven spades. "Is this what you're looking for?" he asked, tabling ace-king-queen tight of clubs.

Anyway, for this pair, four clubs is a cue-bid. RHO bids four diamonds. Great! We were hoping for that. A diamond lead may be necessary against a slam. So we double. LHO passes it back to RHO, who redoubles, promising first-round control. LHO cue-bids four hearts, and RHO has had enough. She signs off in four spades.

LHO now bids four notrump, Blackwood. This auction is impossible--or at least inconsistent. All LHO learned after his four-heart bid is that his partner had no further slam interest. If he has a Blackwood bid now, he had one on the previous round.

He might have a slam try after a signoff. There's nothing inconsistent about, say, a five-club cue-bid. But he I can't possibly have a slam drive opposite the right number of keycards, which is what Blackwood shows. Not unless the four-heart bid was simply kicking the can down the road.

Players sometimes do that. "Maybe I should bid Blackwood now. But why should I bother deciding? I have an easy cue bid. Maybe partner will take over and relieve me of my decision. If she signs off, I can always decided then whether to bid Blackwood. No harm in bidding four hearts and delaying my decision."

But there is harm. Potentially quite a bit. We'll talk more about that later.

RHO bids five spades, showing two keycards and the trump queen, and LHO bids six spades. Partner leads the four of diamonds.

	NORTH Desy ♠ Q 10 6 3 ♥ A 9 ♦ A 10 2 ♣ Q 7 5 3
	♦ 4	EAST Jazlene ♠ 4 ♥ K 10 7 6 2 ♦ K Q 9 7 3 ♣ 9 4

West	North	East	South
Gideon	Desy	Jazlene	Paulus
			1 ♠
Pass	2 ♣	Pass	2 ♠
Pass	3 ♠	Pass	4 ♣
Pass	4 ♦	Double	Pass
Pass	Redouble	Pass	4 ♥
Pass	4 ♠	Pass	4 NT
Pass	5 ♠	Pass	6 ♠
(All pass)

Dummy is a good argument for playing that opener's four club bid shows a suit. If it does, this hand is golden: queens in both of partner's suits and aces opposite his shortness. But if declarer has a singleton, you don't even have your game force any more. Do you have a terrific hand, or do you have a signoff in four spades? No way to tell when four clubs is a cue-bid.

What are our prospects to beat this? Pretty good. Partner has a keycard, so this is going down if a diamond cashes. Declarer rises with the diamond ace and takes a losing spade finesse. A diamond cashes. Down one.

	NORTH Desy ♠ Q 10 6 3 ♥ A 9 ♦ A 10 2 ♣ Q 7 5 3
WEST Gideon ♠ K 2 ♥ Q 8 5 4 3 ♦ 6 5 4 ♣ 8 6 2		EAST Jazlene ♠ 4 ♥ K 10 7 6 2 ♦ K Q 9 7 3 ♣ 9 4
	SOUTH Paulus ♠ A J 9 8 7 5 ♥ J ♦ J 8 ♣ A K J 10

Six spades is on a finesse. When slam is 50%, we don't much care whether we bid it or not. In deciding whether our auction was reasonable, the question we need to ask is: if we make a minimal change to the layout that makes slam either hopeless or cold on normal breaks, would our auction have gone the same way?

For example. Would the auction have gone the same way if opener didn't have the spade jack? If so, we should count the auction a failure. We were in jeopardy of reaching a poor slam. Would the auction have gone the same way if responder had the spade king instead of the queen? If so, we should count the auction a success. Responder didn't quite have the hand we were hoping for, but slam was still on a hook.

We can't answer that. Only South knows whether he would have bid the same way without the spade jack. And only North knows whether she would have bid the same way with the spade king instead of the queen.

Jaz's teammates also reached six spades. South bid three diamonds over a Jacoby two notrump, showing extra values and shortness somewhere. I'm told they had a misunderstanding in the bidding after that, so there isn't must point in discussing their auction. To get an idea how an expert pair might bid after a Jacoby two-notrump response, I gave the deal to Michael and Gabby Kamil.

Their auction began the same way: Two notrump, then three diamonds, showing extra values with some shortness. Michael relayed with three hearts, and Gabby bid four diamonds to show a singleton heart.

What is Michael's hand worth? All his high cards are working, but the doubleton heart is wasted. If he had a doubleton diamond instead, his hand could be worth a full trick more. To see what difference it makes, imagine partner's holding a hand such as 

♠ K J x x x  ♥ x  ♦ K x x x  ♣ A K x

Give responder a doubleton diamond instead of a doubleton heart, and slam is fine. With the actual hand, slam has no play. Well, almost no play.

Still, all his high cards are working. So his hand is worth a last-train four hearts. Gabby takes over with Blackwood and bids slam. That looks a bit aggressive to me. But I don't think she would have done that without the spade jack. So by my criteria, we have to say the auction is was a moderate success.

Real success would be reaching six clubs. It makes when six spades does and sometimes when it doesn't. If the defense doesn't find a diamond lead, you can afford to lose a spade trick. 

Is it possible to get there? Paulus and Desy would have had some chance if they played four clubs as natural. But playing Jacoby two notrump with standard responses, I don't see how to reach six clubs.

Andrew Gumperz has proposed that, after Jacoby two notrump, opener's jump shift should show ten cards in the two suits rather than a good five-card suit, as most play. The reason for is suggestion isn't to find an alternative fit. It's to help responder evaluate his cards. Still, finding an alternative fit may be a side benefit. I'm not sure how the auction would go after that start. Perhaps you wouldn't reach slam at all. But if you do, responder may bid six clubs on the theory that it probably doesn't matter if opener is five-five but might matter if he's six-four. At least, if you do reach six spades and go down, responder can slap his forehead and say, "I KNEW I should have bid six clubs."

So what's the potential harm of the kick-the-can four heart bid? The risk you take is that partner might break tempo before deciding to sign off in four spades. If so, you can't win. If you bid Blackwood, reach a slam, and go down, you will keep your result. If you bid Blackwood, reach slam, and it makes, the director will revert the auction for four spades. You aren't allowed to take an action suggested by partner's break in tempo unless it's clear-cut. And the auction all by itself is evidence against you. If it were clearcut, why didn't you bid it already?

Even without that evidence, Blackwood is hardly clearcut on this hand. Yes, you have a maximum in high cards. But three of those high cards are jacks, and the diamond jack rates to be useless. Plus you have presumably already shown something above a minimum with your four-club bid. I wasn't at the table, so I don't know if there was a break in tempo or not. But if there was, and if the spade finesse were on, no committee would let the result stand.

Of course, people's judgments do differ. Presumably, Paulus thinks this hand is worth bidding Blackwood. Perhaps he even thinks it's clearcut. But, if so, he should bid it directly over the redouble. Then he would never be in jeopardy. There is no upside to bidding four hearts. All it accomplishes is to risk having his judgment overruled.

The final board was a push so Jazlene's team won the match by six imps. I kept a charge sheet, as Edgar Kaplan used to do when reviewing matches. Award for best performance at this table goes to Gideon. I charged him with only 1 imp--for his decision to ignore his 5-card heart suit on board 9. (That decision cost 2 imps. But the rules say that if the losing action is a matter of judgment, not an error, you get only a 50% charge.)

Next week, we're back to the Free Weekly Instant Tournament format. Be sure to play on BBO by Thursday so we can compare results.

Jaz Hands - Board 15

Board 15
Both sides vulnerable

This week, we take a look at the penultimate board in the Jazlene's match.

♠ 8 5  ♥ J 9 8  ♦ A Q 10 9  ♣ 10 8 6 2

You pass. LHO opens with two hearts, weak, partner passes, and RHO bids two notrump, showing a game-forcing hand with five or more spades. LHO bids three hearts, showing precisely a doubleton spade, and RHO bids four spades. Everyone passes.

RHO was apparently interested in finding the right strain for game. It's very likely she holds a singleton heart, else she might have bid four hearts and not bothered to look for a spade fit. That means declarer might have two fast pitches, so it may be necessary to cash our minor-suit tricks quickly. If so, perhaps we should lead the diamond ace. If partner has the king, maybe we can cash three diamonds and find a fourth trick somewhere. Or maybe declarer has a stiff heart honor and dummy has the diamond king, in which case ace and a diamond may kill the entry before declarer get's a chance to unblock hearts. 

On second thought, I don't think the diamond ace makes much sense. If you lead a diamond, it's probably better to lead low. If the idea is to kill dummy's entry, low will work just as well as the ace. If partner has the king, low will work better if it's doubleton. The usual reason for leading the ace rather than low in a cash-out situation--that you retain the option of shifting--doesn't really apply here. If a diamond lead is wrong, it probably doesn't matter whether you lead the ace or a low one. You've blown the defense either way.

The alternative is to lead a club, hoping partner has the club ace and can lead a diamond through declarer's king. Perhaps he has the diamond jack and we can take three diamond tricks. Or perhaps he has a doubleton and can score a ruff. 

Which is better? A club lead might enable us to take four tricks off the top if partner has as little as the club ace. A diamond lead, even if you do catch partner with the king, yields at most three diamond tricks, so you will still need to find partner with another trick somewhere. A club lead, then, should work more often than a diamond lead.

Jazlene opts for a club. She leads the six, third best from even.

	NORTH Paulus ♠ Q 9 ♥ K Q 7 6 3 2 ♦ 4 3 ♣ Q 9 7
WEST Jazlene ♠ 8 5 ♥ J 9 8 ♦ A Q 10 9 ♣ 10 8 2	♣ 6

West	North	East	South
Jazlene	Paulus	Gideon	Desy
Pass	2 ♥	Pass	2 NT
Pass	3 ♥	Pass	4 ♠
(All pass)

Declarer plays low from dummy, partner plays the jack, and declarer wins with the ace. She would have played the queen with ace-small, so she must have either a singleton ace or ace-king. If the latter, winning with the ace was a mistake. Had she won with the king, it would be possible from our perspective that partner held the ace. As it is, we know we have no club tricks coming.

Declarer cashes the ace of hearts. Presumably she is unblocking a stiff ace so she can pitch diamonds on the king and queen. Next she'll play ace of spades and a spade to the queen, then take her pitches. At least, if partner does have the diamond king, only two diamonds were cashing, so a diamond lead would not have helped.

We play the nine; partner plays the four. We play upside-down count and attitude, so partner's four shows an even number. But he knows I can deduce the heart count. No need to help out declarer--especially when she may need to decide how many hearts are cashing.

Declarer doesn't play trumps as expected. She cashes the ace of clubs. There is no reason to do this unless she started with ace-king tight. She is unblocking both suits so she can take pitches from either one.

How many pitches can she take? Let's say this is the layout:

	NORTH Paulus ♠ Q 9 ♥ K Q 7 6 3 2 ♦ 4 3 ♣ Q 9 7
WEST Jazlene ♠ 8 5 ♥ J 9 8 ♦ A Q 10 9 ♣ 10 8 6 2		EAST Gideon ♠ 6 3 2 ♥ 10 5 4 ♦ J 7 2 ♣ J 5 4 3
	SOUTH Desy ♠ A K J 10 7 4 ♥ A ♦ K 8 6 5 ♣ A K

After ace and queen of spades, she'll pitch a diamond on the heart king and another on the club queen. We'll now be down to this position:

	NORTH Paulus ♠ Q 9 ♥ Q 7 6 3 K 2 ♦ 4 3 ♣ Q 9 7
WEST Jazlene ♠ 8 5 ♥ 8 J 9 ♦ A Q 10 9 ♣ 10 8 6 2		EAST Gideon ♠ 6 3 2 ♥ 10 5 4 ♦ J 7 2 ♣ 5 J 4 3
	SOUTH Desy ♠ K J 10 7 A 4 ♥ A ♦ K 8 6 5 ♣ A K

She has two ways to try for six: (A) Cash a heart, pitching another diamond. This requires three-three hearts or the hand with four hearts to hold the last trump. Or (B) lead up to the diamond king. Our goal is to talk her into (B). Partner got us off to a good start with his false count in hearts. If we follow with the jack when declarer cashes the king, it may look as if hearts are four-two, in which case she will lead a diamond to the king.

What should we play on this trick? It's probably best declarer knows we started with four clubs. Since we're representing heart shortness, we want to represent club length. So we follow with the deuce of clubs. Partner plays the three.

Declarer plays the four of spades. Interesting. She must be missing either the ace or king of spades, else she would have played ace and a spade to the queen to draw as many trumps as possible before taking pitches.

Declarer plays the nine from dummy, and partner wins the king. Declarer has ace-jack-ten of spades, so the queen of spades is a dummy entry. Again declarer was careless with her carding. Had she played the queen from dummy, I couldn't be sure that the nine was an entry.

Partner shifts to the deuce of diamonds. Declarer plays the jack and we win with the queen.

If declarer had played the queen of spades, it would be right to return a spade. If partner has a spade higher than the nine, we can keep declarer off dummy and take two more diamond tricks to beat this. Since the nine is an entry, declarer would take the rest.

But we know the spade queen is an entry. So we might as well cash the the diamond ace. No need to lose the overtrick. 

We cash the it, and declarer claims. Making four.

	NORTH Paulus ♠ Q 9 ♥ K Q 7 6 3 2 ♦ 4 3 ♣ Q 9 7
WEST Jazlene ♠ 8 5 ♥ J 9 8 ♦ A Q 10 9 ♣ 10 8 6 2		EAST Gideon ♠ K 3 2 ♥ 10 5 4 ♦ 7 5 2 ♣ J 5 4 3
	SOUTH Desy ♠ A J 10 7 6 4 ♥ A ♦ K J 8 6 ♣ A K

A low diamond lead wouldn't have mattered. Declarer would win, cash winners, and exit a diamond. We have no realistic chance to beat this now. But we can win and tap dummy with a third diamond to score partner's spade king and hold it to four.

We've seen a number of good plays and a number of bad plays in the course of reviewing this match. But if I were playing in this match and made every mistake we've encountered so far, playing the spade nine instead of the queen is the error I would be most upset about. It may have cost only an overtrick, but it betrays that you weren't even trying to see the deal from the opponents' perspective.

Mistakes are unavoidable. We miscalculate. We misjudge. We have blind spots. But looking at the deal through your opponents' eyes is something that should always be top of mind. One can never become a top player until that becomes a habit.

And one of the primary goals of Gargoyle Chronicles is to help you get into that habit. You may have noticed we spend a lot of time in these posts asking, "Why is my opponent doing this? What can I deduce about the layout from his actions?" Even when it would seem not to matter. That's because these are the questions you should be asking yourself routinely. And the good news is you can ask these questions on any deal. So every deal you play offers a chance to practice. 

That's why, when covering a match, we never skip over a deal. I'm a firm believer that every deal offers an opportunity to learn something. If you can't find it, you just haven't looked hard enough. (By the way, I first heard this sentiment expressed by Michael Rosenberg. I don't want him saying I didn't give him credit.)

At the other table, Jaz's teammates reached four hearts from the South side after a multi-two diamond opening by North. West led the spade eight, and East made the mistake of covering the queen. Declarer now took all thirteen tricks. If East withholds his king, declarer has no way to take more than eleven tricks.

Say declarer repeats the finesse, cashes the heart ace, and leads the ace of spades. West ruffs, declarer overruffs and cashes the trump king, leaving East with a high trump. He then plays a club to his hand and cashes a spade, pitching a diamond from dummy. East ruffs and plays a diamond to his partner's ace, scoring two tricks for the defense.

East's error, along with South's error at our table, resulted in a three-imp pickup for Jazlene. So her team is up six imps going into the last board.

Be sure to come back next week for the conclusion of the match. Spoiler alert: we face a slam decision, so the match is still up for grabs.

Jaz Hands - Board 14

Board 14
Opponents vulnerable

This week, we continue with Jazlene's Mixed Team match. Here is Hope's discussion of today's deal on YouTube:

♠ 7 4  ♥ 6 5 4  ♦ A 10 5 2  ♣ K Q J 3

We'll start the board in Jazlene's seat. RHO opens one diamond. You pass. LHO bids one spade, partner overcalls with two hearts, and RHO passes. You bid two spades to show your limit raise, and LHO bids three clubs. Partner bids three notrump, which RHO doubles. You have a source of tricks in clubs and bad trumps. And your only ruffing value is suspect, since partner probably has secondary spade values, so you opt to play three notrump. LHO has other ideas, however. He pulls to four clubs. Partner bids four hearts, and RHO doubles again. Everyone passes. RHO leads the eight of clubs.

Now we switch over to Gideon's seat for the play.

	NORTH Jazlene ♠ 7 4 ♥ 6 5 4 ♦ A 10 5 2 ♣ K Q J 3
	SOUTH Gideon ♠ A 5 3 ♥ Q 10 9 8 7 2 ♦ K 8 ♣ A 2

West	North	East	South
Desy	Jazlene	Paulus	Gideon
1 ♦	Pass	1 ♠	2 ♥
Pass	2 ♠	3 ♣	3 NT
Double	Pass	4 ♣	4 ♥
Double	(All pass)

The opponents have done a lot of bidding and doubled you twice with a mere 17 HCP. Obviously East has a lot shape, at least six-five in the black suits. But what is West doubling on? She must have all three heart honors, probably fourth. So we've got three heart losers for starters. To make this, we need to pitch both of our spade losers on clubs. Three notrump was the right idea. In that contract, we can duck one spade and hold our losses to one spade and three hearts.

Unfortunately, this contract is problematic. Let's give West

♠ x x  ♥ A K J x  ♦ Q J x x x  ♣ x x

Upon winning the first heart, West will shift to a spade. Now we can't avoid a spade loser. But she doesn't know we have six hearts, so maybe we can sneak a heart through. If we lead a low heart and she ducks, we can cash two clubs and pitch a spade. She ruffs and switches to spades. Now we win and play a diamond to dummy to pitch our last spade on the fourth club. All she gets are her three trump tricks.

East plays the ten of clubs. We take take ace and lead the deuce of hearts. No good. West hops with the jack, and East pitches the deuce of spades. West shifts to the ten of spades, and East overtakes with the king. We can't avoid a spade loser, so might as well duck this. Could West have a stiff spade? No. She would have led it in preference to a club. And East wouldn't have bothered bidding clubs with king-queen-jack seventh of spades.

We duck. East plays the queen of spades. We take the ace and ruff a spade in dummy. Down one.

The full deal:

	NORTH Jazlene ♠ 7 4 ♥ 6 5 4 ♦ A 10 5 2 ♣ K Q J 3
WEST Desy ♠ 10 6 ♥ A K J 3 ♦ Q J 7 6 4 3 ♣ 8		EAST Paulus ♠ K Q J 9 8 2 ♥ -- ♦ 9 ♣ 10 9 7 6 5 4
	SOUTH Gideon ♠ A 5 3 ♥ Q 10 9 8 7 2 ♦ K 8 ♣ A 2

Surprisingly, that was a stiff club. Why didn't East play a club back for down two? I could understand a diamond shift, playing declarer for

♠ A x x  ♥ A 10 9 x x x  ♦ Q x   ♣ A x

After a club return, West ruffs with a natural trump trick and can't stop us from pitch our diamond loser, so we're down only one. A diamond shift sets up a diamond trick for down two. But I don't see how a spade continuation can ever be right.

At the other table, the auction began the same way, but over North's cue-bid, East chose to rebid three spades rather than show his club suit. South bid four hearts, and West doubled.

West then tried a sneak attack. Instead of leading her stiff club, she led her doubleton spade. Ostensibly, this lead is a mistake, since it allows South to duck, then ruff his spade in dummy, getting out for down one. But it had the effect of misleading South about the layout. With East never bidding clubs, South never envisioned a stiff club on his left. It was a stiff spade he was worried about. East had bid three spades with no high cards other than the king-queen-jack of spades. Would he do that with only six spades? Further, wouldn't a stiff spade make West's double of four hearts more attractive? If East ducked the spade, then West ruffed out his ace, he would be down two in a cold contract. If West did have a stiff spade, he could make this by winning the first trick and driving the heart honors, eventually pitching both his spades on dummy's clubs.

He went for it. He won the first spade. Then he did something foolish. He crossed to dummy with a club to lead a heart, eventually losing three hearts, two spades, and a club ruff for down three. Even forgetting about the double, declarer knows West has the ace and king of hearts for her opening bid. So it never gains to lead hearts from the table. He should have just played the queen of hearts from his hand at trick two. But it made no difference. Had he done that, West could draw dummy's trumps, lead a spade to partner, pitch her stiff club on the third round of spades, then get a club ruff. Still down three. The sneak attack worked.

Jaz's team thus picked up nine imps and found themselves in the lead by two.

Jaz Hands -- Board 13

Board 13
Our side vulnerable

This week, we continue with Jazlene's Mixed Team match. Here is Alex's discussion of today's deal on YouTube:

♠ 6 2  ♥ A J 10 7 3  ♦ K 9 4  ♣ Q 10 8

Gideon opens one spade. Jazlene bids one notrump, semi-forcing, and Gideon passes, showing a balanced minimum. RHO apparently forgot to overcall, so she corrects her mistake now and balances with two clubs.

Some players would bid two hearts here, thinking they have to do something, because partner opened the bidding and they have ten HCP. But those high cards take tricks on defense as well as offense. Since we don't have a game, our objective is simply to go plus. So the question becomes, are we more likely to go plus defending two clubs or bidding two hearts?

As in most low-level competitive decisions, the Law of Total Tricks is your guide. If the opponents are in a seven-card club fit, they are probably going down, and defending is your safest route to a plus score. If they have an eight-card club fit, then you have eight hearts (since partner must be 5-3-3-2), and two hearts must be a heavy favorite to make. So you want to defend if partner has three clubs and to bid two hearts if he has a doubleton.

If you pass, you can accomplish that. If partner has three clubs, he will sell out. If he has two, he will reopen with a double, and you can bid two hearts.

Jazlene got the first part right. She passed. But then, when Gideon reopened with a double, she decided to go for blood and passed. That's unlikely to be the winning decision. If either two clubs or two hearts makes and the other contract goes down, it doesn't make difference whether we bid or defend. The large swings happen when either both contracts make or both go down. So your decision rests on which of those two scenarios you think is more likely. When they have eight clubs and we have eight hearts, surely both contracts making is more likely.

Jazlene says it was a state-of-the-match decision. "I wasn't getting rich playing two hearts." I assume by that she meant she was hoping to collect 500. It's true that if you do get lucky and collect 500, you pick up 8 imps. So, even though that's unlikely, it might be a worthwhile gamble if the risk were small. But if both two hearts and two clubs are making, you lose 7 imps by passing. Risking 7 imps to pick up 8 on a longshot doesn't seem like good odds to me, whatever the state of the match.

	NORTH Paulus ♠ K J 8 4 ♥ 9 8 6 2 ♦ Q 7 5 ♣ K 5
WEST Jazlene ♠ 6 2 ♥ A J 10 7 3 ♦ K 9 4 ♣ Q 10 8

West	North	East	South
Jazlene	Paulus	Gideon	Desy
		1 ♠	Pass
1 NT	Pass	Pass	2 ♣
Pass	Pass	Double	(All pass)

You lead the spade six. Dummy plays low, and partner's ten forces declarer's ace. We know a lot about the layout. Declarer must be 2-1-4-6 with 7 to 9 HCP. Unfortunately, declarer knows the shape also. So if she has ace sixth of clubs, she will cash two top clubs and work on diamonds, losing one heart, one clubs, and three diamonds. Making two.

Surprisingly, she doesn't cash clubs. She plays the deuce of diamonds from her hand at trick two. What's that about? Maybe she has the diamond ace instead of the club ace. Does that help? That gives us one heart, one diamond, and three clubs. Nope. Still not beating it.

Perhaps she's not so confident about the shape. Perhaps she thinks we wouldn't sit for the double without four clubs, making partner 5-3-4-1. That would make for a strange pass of one notrump. But somebody did something strange. So why not partner?

If declarer does have the ace of clubs and is determined to work on diamonds, perhaps we have a chance. Hop with the diamond king, cash the heart ace to avoid any accidents, and play another spade. If declarer wins and persists in diamonds, partner wins the jack and leads the spade queen. Declarer ruffs, we overruff and lead a diamond to partner for another spade. Down one. 

Would declarer continue diamonds in that scenario, or revert to cashing clubs? If she genuinely believes we are 2-5-2-4, perhaps. Who knows? In any event, it's the only chance I see. But it's not risk-free. If declarer has the diamond jack, hopping gives her an overtrick. But it may be worth the risk. If the opponents are plus 140 at the other table, we're already minus 8 imps. Dropping the overtricks costs only 3 more. If we beat this, we go plus 2 imps for a net gain of 10. I like those odds.

Jazlene doesn't go for it. She ducks the diamond, inserting the nine. That play I don't get. I know it's the right count card (playing upside-down). But if declarer has jack-eight, it costs a trick. Technical plays take precedence over signals.

Partner captures dummy's queen with the ace and shifts to the queen of hearts. Declarer follows low. Partner led the queen from king-queen third? I assume that was an attempt to show the diamond jack. Please don't do that, partner. 

Playing suit-preference games with honors make me nervous. Queen, then king, usually means "I have a doubleton. Please overtake." Yes, that can't be true here, so I should read the card as suit preference. But some day partner might not notice an ambiguity like that. I'm happier if he just plays his standard card and lets me work the hand out myself. If I need him to have the diamond jack, I'll play him for it.

What heart should we play? A discouraging heart here should show the spade lead was a singleton. So if we discourage, partner will shift to a spade, hoping to give us two ruffs. We don't want that, so we encourage with the deuce (upside down). Partner continues with the king of hearts. Declarer ruffs, plays a club to the king and another diamond. Yes. If partner has a stiff club and four diamonds, that's what she must do. She can eventually ruff her diamond loser in dummy as Jazlene ruffs in front of dummy with a natural trump trick.

Diamonds were three-three all along, so declarer loses three diamonds and a club. Making two.

	NORTH Paulus ♠ K J 8 4 ♥ 9 8 6 2 ♦ Q 7 5 ♣ K 5
WEST Jazlene ♠ 6 2 ♥ A J 10 7 3 ♦ K 9 4 ♣ Q 10 8		EAST Gideon ♠ Q 10 7 5 3 ♥ K Q 5 ♦ A J 6 ♣ J 7
	SOUTH Desy ♠ A 9 ♥ 4 ♦ 10 8 3 2 ♣ A 9 6 4 3 2

Jazlene might not have gotten rich in two hearts, but she would have earned a respectable income, since the opponents had an accident in the other room. North opened one spade and East bid two clubs, making the sensible decision to bid his hand immediately. Waiting to bid until the opponents have had a chance to exchange information is a poor strategy.

Over two clubs, South bid two hearts, presumably not game-forcing in competition. North raised to three hearts, and South went on to four.

Three hearts shows a dead minimum. With a little extra--or with any hand that holds a fourth trump--partner will raise to game. So with eights losers, including a likely wasted card in the opponent's suit, Della should have passed. The only reason I can think of for accepting was she thought three hearts was forcing. But I'm just guessing. Sometimes players who were weaned on two-over-one game forcing are surprisingly unfamiliar with standard methods.

So Jazlene lost only 2 imps on her gamble. Had she bid two hearts, she would have picked up 6.

Free Weekly Instant Tournament - February 6 - Board 1

Board 1
Neither side vulnerable

We're taking a break from Jaz's Mixed Team match to try an experiment in the Gargoyle Chronicles YouTube channel. Alex is streaming the play straight from BBO, pausing here and there to break things down. So you see it unfold in real time and then hop into analysis mode when it matters.

You can watch the video here. If you watch, let me know if you like the new format. I think it might make the distinction clearer between what actually happened at the table and the hypothetical lines I'm considering as I play.

No way to stream here. So we'll just continue as usual.

♠ Q 9 6 5  ♥ A Q 8  ♦ A K 8 3  ♣ A 5

Two passes to me. I open one diamond, planning to rebid two-notrump.

Partner bids one spade. So I forget about two notrump and raise to four spades instead. Everyone passes.

	NORTH Phillip ♠ Q 9 6 5 ♥ A Q 8 ♦ A K 8 3 ♣ A 5
	SOUTH Robot ♠ A 8 7 3 ♥ J 7 3 ♦ 7 6 ♣ K Q J 4

West	North	East	South
Robot	Phillip	Robot	Robot
			Pass
Pass	1 ♦	Pass	1 ♠
Pass	4 ♠	(All pass)

The opening lead is the four of diamonds. I win in dummy with the ace. East plays the five. The deuce of diamonds is missing, so I can't tell if the lead is from length or from shortness.

If I ruff two diamonds in my hand, I can pitch both of dummy's hearts on my clubs and avoid a heart finesse. Then I lose only whatever trump tricks I have to. Since West might be overruffing, ruffing two diamonds could be tough to pull off. Alternatively, I can ruff only one diamond, pitch a diamond and a heart on clubs, then take a heart finesse. So Plan A is two ruffs, no finesse; Plan B is one ruff plus a finesse. 

How do I tackle trumps? If I play ace and another, the defenders might be able to draw a third round and stop a second diamond ruff. And if East has four trumps to the king, they might even draw all my trumps and stop any ruffs at all. So it looks best to keep the spade ace in reserve--to keep control and flexibility.

So club to my king--three from East; deuce from West--and a trump. West rises with the king; East follows with the four. West continues with the deuce of diamonds, and East plays the queen. So West's original length is either two or five. From jack-ten-nine fifth he would lead the jack, so I'm assuming it's a doubleton.

Here is the current position:

	NORTH Phillip ♠ Q 9 6 ♥ A Q 8 ♦ 8 3 ♣ A
	SOUTH Robot ♠ A 8 7 ♥ J 7 3 ♦ -- ♣ Q J 4

At this point, ruffing two diamonds won't work, since West is overruffing. But if trumps are three-two, Plan B is still on: draw trumps, ruff one diamond, take two pitches, then try the heart finesse. That's either making either six or five, depending on the finesse.

The potential problem is four-one trumps. If someone has four, it's probably West, since he's short in diamonds. I want to keep the spade ace as an entry to my hand. So the right play is to cash the queen first. If East shows out, I can cash the club ace, play a spade to my ace, then cash clubs, pitching a diamond and a heart, coming down to this:

	NORTH Phillip ♠ 9 ♥ A Q ♦ 8 ♣ --
	SOUTH Robot ♠ 8 ♥ J 7 3 ♦ -- ♣ --

Now a heart finesse doesn't hurt. If it loses, East can't do any damage. I'll still ruff a diamond in hand and lose to the last trump. That's making five if the heart finesse works and four if it doesn't.

It's important to cash the spade queen first. If I lead a spade to the ace and East shows out, I've mangled my entries. If I cash the spade queen and club ace and ruff a diamond to my hand, West overruffs and plays a heart:

	NORTH Phillip ♠ 9 ♥ A Q 8 ♦ 8 ♣ --
	♥ 9
	SOUTH Robot ♠ -- ♥ J 7 3 ♦ -- ♣ Q J

Now if the heart finesse loses, East has a diamond to cash and I'm down.

Alright. Queen of spades--deuce--seven--ten. Spade to the ace. West pitches the seven of clubs. Club to the ace. West follows with the ten; East pitches the deuce of hearts.

Whoa! East had a stiff club? Good thing I didn't need to unblock the ace early.

Now I ruff a diamond, cash clubs, and take the heart finesse. It wins. Making six.

	NORTH Phillip ♠ Q 9 6 5 ♥ A Q 8 ♦ A K 8 3 ♣ A 5
WEST Robot ♠ K 10 ♥ K 10 9 ♦ 4 2 ♣ 10 9 8 7 6 2		EAST Robot ♠ J 4 2 ♥ 6 5 4 2 ♦ Q J 10 9 5 ♣ 3
	SOUTH Robot ♠ A 8 7 3 ♥ J 7 3 ♦ 7 6 ♣ K Q J 4

Plus four eighty is worth 93%. West can give partner a club ruff when he wins the spade king to hold me to five. And East can help by tossing the jack of spades under the king as an alarm-clock signal. But robots don't signal. And probably don't own alarm clocks.

Next week, we'll return to Jazlene's match. Four boards left.

Jaz Hands -- Board 12

Board 12
Both sides vulnerable

Today we discuss Board 12 of Jazlene's match. You can read about it here. But it would make Hope happy if you watched her discuss it on our YouTube channel:

♠ 6 5  ♥ K Q 9 4  ♦ 6 5 3  ♣ J 10 9 5

LHO opens one diamond, Precision. RHO bids one spade, and LHO bids two clubs, showing length in both minors but with no indication of which suit is longer. RHO bids two hearts, artificial and forcing, and LHO bids two notrump. RHO bids three spades, showing six, and LHO bids three notrump. 

Everyone passes and partner leads the seven of hearts.

	NORTH Desy ♠ A K 10 7 4 3 ♥ A J 3 ♦ K J 4 ♣ 2
	♥ 7	EAST Jazlene ♠ 6 5 ♥ K Q 9 4 ♦ 6 5 3 ♣ J 10 9 5

West	North	East	South
Gideon	Desy	Jazlene	Paulus
			1 ♦
Pass	1 ♠	Pass	2 ♣
Pass	2 ♥	Pass	2 NT
Pass	3 ♠	Pass	3 NT
(All pass)

Our agreements are second-highest from a bad suit, so it looks as if partner has either 107x or 87x. Declarer plays low from dummy.

What do we know about the layout?  With a doubleton spade, Paulus probably would have bid four spades, so his most likely shapes are 1-3-5-4 or 1-3-4-5. He has at least 11 HCP, which leaves partner with at most 7. Declarer has two spade tricks and a heart trick. He needs six more tricks to make this.

Let's give partner queen-jack of spades so declarer won't have a third spade trick. Partner can have one more card. The diamond ace won't be helpful. That means declarer must have ace-king-queen of clubs, which gives him six tricks in the minors. So let's give partner the ace or king clubs. Now declarer has solid diamonds and one club trick. Five diamonds would give him eight tricks, so I must assume he has only four.

Good. Now I have my construction. I'm playing declarer for 1-3-4-5 and I'm playing partner for the ace or king of clubs. I have no particular reason to believe that's the layout. But it's what I must assume if we're going to beat this. If I'm right, declarer must set up his ninth trick in the club suit. So I'm aiming for three hearts and two club tricks.

If partner has the heart ten, I can insert the nine, then return the king of hearts. On my construction, declarer is now down. But if declarer has the heart ten, that's his ninth trick. Can we beat this if I play the heart queen? Let's imagine this layout:

	NORTH Desy ♠ A K 10 7 4 3 ♥ A J 3 ♦ K J 4 ♣ 2
WEST Gideon ♠ Q J 9 2 ♥ 8 7 6 ♦ 9 8 7 ♣ A 7 4		EAST Jazlene ♠ 6 5 ♥ K Q 9 4 ♦ 6 5 3 ♣ J 10 9 5
	SOUTH Paulus ♠ 8 ♥ 10 5 2 ♦ A Q 10 2 ♣ K Q 8 6 3

Say I play the queen and shift to the jack of clubs. Declarer covers. Partner wins the ace and shifts back to hearts. That's good enough. I can set up my long heart, and I have an entry in clubs.

But there is a serious flaw in that analysis. Why would declarer ever cover? He's perfectly happy to lose club tricks to me. So he'll just duck. If I continue with the ten, he will duck again. Now he's cold as long as clubs break.

But why should he assume the club ace is offside? Isn't that double-dummy? No, it's not. He doesn't care who has the club ace. This line requires only that clubs break four-three. Then he loses three clubs and one heart.

So if I'm going to lead clubs, I must lead a low one. Defenders are often afraid to make such plays out of an unconscious, irrational fear that declarer can see their hand. But as a practical matter, leading low can't hurt. If partner has the eight, leading low works by force. And if declarer has the eight, he's not going to play it. He wants to keep partner off play, not let him in cheaply. So if he has ace-queen, he'll finesse. If he has king-queen, he'll play the king, hoping I have the ace. Then he can either duck a spade, hoping they're three-three, or cash his winners and play ace and heart, hoping I must give him a club trick in the end. 

But maybe I shouldn't lead clubs at all. If declarer has the hand I'm hoping for, there is no reason to lead them. Declarer must play clubs himself. My Third Rule of Defense is: Don't break a suit declarer must play himself.

Look what happens after a diamond shift. If declarer has king-queen of clubs, he can't make his contract even if he can see my hand. He wins in dummy and leads a club. I split. Declarer ducks, and I play another diamond. Declarer wins in hand leads the eight of clubs, keeping partner off play. I win and play a third diamond. Declarer is down. He can set up his clubs but has no way to reach them. 

Which is better, a low club or a diamond shift? I'm sure Lowenthal would lead a low club. He relished that kind of play. Personally, I like the elegance of a diamond shift. But one thing you can't do is lead the club jack. That can never beat the contract unless declarer is fast asleep.

Jazlene leads the club jack. Declarer takes the ace and leads the eight of spades. Partner plays the queen. Declarer cashes the ace and king of spades and plays a third spade. Partner wins and plays a heart. Declarer finesses, you win the king, and declarer claims ten tricks.

	NORTH Desy ♠ A K 10 7 4 3 ♥ A J 3 ♦ K J 4 ♣ 2
WEST Gideon ♠ Q J 9 2 ♥ 10 7 6 ♦ 10 9 7 ♣ 7 4 3		EAST Jazlene ♠ 6 5 ♥ K Q 9 4 ♦ 6 5 3 ♣ J 10 9 5
	SOUTH Paulus ♠ 8 ♥ 8 5 2 ♦ A Q 8 2 ♣ A K Q 8 6

That was a strange line of play. Declarer has ten top tricks. His best play for an eleventh is surely to duck the club jack. If clubs are four-three, he has the rest. If not, he has lots of squeeze chances. Playing for three-three spades instead is a weird choice.

Jazlene's teammates played three notrump from the other side and made five, so she picks up an imp.

Jaz Hands -- Board 11

Board 11
Neither side vulnerable

We continue our discussion of the Ong-Tan vs Noervita-Sugandi match from the SEABF Mixed Teams.

You can watch Alex's discussion of Board 11 on our YouTube channel:

♠ K 9 5 4  ♥ 10 7 5  ♦ Q J 10 7  ♣ K J

RHO opens one club, Precision, in fourth seat, nominally showing any hand with 16 HCP or more. Jazlese passes, and LHO bids two clubs, showing a positive response with five or more diamonds. Gideon doubles to show clubs, and RHO bids two hearts. LHO bids three clubs. RHO bids three spades. It's unclear what this bid shows. It could be a second suit or it could be a notrump probe. LHO bids four hearts, which ends the auction.

What should Jazlene lead? Partner stuck his neck out to make a dangerous double. So if a club lead is right and you don't lead one, partner may find it hard to forgive you. On the other hand, you are supposed to think. You know a lot more about the layout than partner did when he doubled. If spades is indeed a second suit, you know you have a stack. And you know dummy is hitting with a doubleton trump. A trump lead could be necessary to cut down on spade ruffs. So Jazlene chooses to lead the five of hearts.

I don't like it. I'm not talking about the heart lead itself. It's a reasonable decision. But I don't like the choice of the five. More on that later.

	NORTH Paulus ♠ J 6 ♥ J 6 ♦ A K 8 4 3 ♣ 7 6 5 3
WEST Jazlene ♠ K 9 5 4 ♥ 10 7 5 ♦ Q J 10 7 ♣ K J

West	North	East	South
Jazlene	Paulus	Gideon	Desy
Pass	Pass	Pass	1 ♣
Pass	2 ♣	Double	2 ♥
Pass	3 ♣	Pass	3 ♠
Pass	4 ♥	(All pass)

Declarer plays low from dummy, and partner wins the ace. What does that leave declarer? King-queen of hearts and ace-queen of spades. Declarer must have the club ace for his one club opener. So it doesn't appear we beating this. The best we can hope for is that partner has the spade ten and we take one heart and two spades.

Partner returns the four of hearts to dummy's jack. Declarer cashes the diamond ace, pitching a club, then leads the jack of spades, conceding a trick to your king. Making five.

	NORTH Paulus ♠ J 6 ♥ J 6 ♦ A K 8 4 3 ♣ 7 6 5 3
WEST Jazlene ♠ K 9 5 4 ♥ 10 7 5 ♦ Q J 10 7 ♣ K J		EAST Gideon ♠ 7 2 ♥ A 4 ♦ 9 6 5 2 ♣ Q 10 9 8 4
	SOUTH Desy ♠ A Q 10 8 3 ♥ K Q 9 8 3 2 ♦ -- ♣ A 2

A club lead would probably beat it. If declarer wins the first or second round of clubs and plays a heart to the jack, partner can win and play more clubs, promoting your ten of hearts. The only way declarer can succeed is by the unlikely play of leading the nine of hearts and floating it.

I don't subscribe to the theory that you should follow partner's lead suggestion just to keep him happy. That's not playing bridge. That's playing Keep Partner Happy. Besides, if I'm your partner, the way to keep me happy is to do what you think is right. But on this particular hand, perhaps the ten of hearts should persuade you that a club lead is right. This contract may be hard to beat if the heart ten doesn't score a trick, so maybe going after a trump promotion is the right idea. Another layout where a club lead is necessary is if partner has the club ace and the heart jack. Now three rounds of clubs promotes the heart ten.

Whatever the merits of a heart versus a club, I do think the five of hearts was a mistake. If you lead a heart, you should lead the seven. There are two reasons for this:

The first is conventional. When leading trumps, second highest from three is standard. This springs from the fact that you must lead low from a doubleton, retaining your higher spot for a possible overruff. David Burn says he once gave declarer a game by leading the five of trumps from five-three doubleton. Declarer's game going trick was a ruff with the four of trumps. Had David led the the three, declarer couldn't make it. That's an extreme example, but the principle is valid. If you lead a doubleton trump, you should lead low. It follows, then, that if you have three trumps and want partner to know that, you should lead second highest. If you lead middle, then play low, partner knows you have a third trump.

The second, and perhaps more important, reason is technical. Leading the higher of your two low spots may enable partner to retain a high trump over dummy, thus depriving declarer of an entry. This is particularly important if dummy has a doubleton trump. This deal was almost a classic example. Let's just switch a few cards around:

	NORTH Paulus ♠ 7 6 ♥ J 6 ♦ A K 8 4 3 ♣ 7 6 5 3
WEST Jazlene ♠ K 9 5 4 ♥ 10 7 5 ♦ Q J 10 7 ♣ K J		EAST Gideon ♠ J 2 ♥ Q 4 ♦ 9 6 5 2 ♣ A 10 9 8 4
	SOUTH Desy ♠ A Q 10 8 3 ♥ A K 9 8 3 2 ♦ -- ♣ Q 2

A club lead beats it, but you survive a trump lead--provided you lead the seven. If you lead low, dummy's six forces an entry. If you lead the seven, partner can withhold his queen. Declarer then has no way to get to dummy and must lose three spades and a club.

How about Gideon's actions? I wouldn't have doubled two clubs with Gideon's hand. For all you know clubs is opener's main suit. I don't relish playing three clubs redoubled if that's the case. But what can I say? He was right. A club lead beats their game, and if he doesn't double, there is no chance he's getting one.

I don't understand his trump play at trick two, however. I don't see where he thought four tricks were coming from. Couldn't partner have the club ace instead of the king? Perhaps that's even why she didn't lead one. If this is the layout:

	NORTH Paulus ♠ J 6 ♥ J 6 ♦ A K 8 4 3 ♣ 7 6 5 3
WEST Jazlene ♠ K 9 5 4 ♥ 10 7 5 ♦ Q J 10 7 ♣ A J		EAST Gideon ♠ 7 2 ♥ A 4 ♦ 9 6 5 2 ♣ Q 10 9 8 4
	SOUTH Desy ♠ A Q 10 8 3 ♥ K Q 9 8 3 2 ♦ -- ♣ K 2

a club shift at trick two beats it. Partner cashes two clubs, plays a second trump, then waits for her spade trick. Wouldn't that be embarrassing? You ask for a club lead. Partner ignores you and, instead, finds the only lead to beat it, then you let it score?

At the other table, their teammates bid naturally to four hearts and got the lead of the queen of diamonds. Declarer made five.