Sunday, September 25, 2022

Free Weekly Instant Tournament - September 23 - Board 5

Board 5
Our side vulnerable

The auction begins with two passes to you. You hold,

♠ 9 6 5 4 2   K Q 10 6 3   A 2  ♣ A. 

The first bridge book I ever read was Charles Goren's Contract Bridge Complete. In it, Goren set out suit-quality requirements for biddable suits. For an opening bid, a four-card suit had to include at least four HCP. A five-card suit had to have at least one honor. Requirements were loosened for later rounds of bidding but not abandoned altogether. Even when responding to Stayman, for example, you weren't supposed to show your four-card major unless it was headed by at least queen-ten.

I actually followed these rules for awhile. It soon became clear that no one else did, but I assumed that was because they didn't know any better. What I didn't realize was that expert opinion had changed since Goren's book. People had come to appreciate the importance of four-four fits. They had noticed that four small opposite four small is worth two tricks instead of one if it is trump and the suit breaks normally. And you can't get to those four-four fits if no one bids the suit.

The first expert I know of to advocate bidding on suit length alone and ignoring suit quality is William Woodson. He advocated this style in what he called his "electronic" bidding system. (I suppose "electronic" was the most futuristic adjective he could think of in the 50s.) This principle applied even to weak-two bids. While others were insisting you needed two of the top three honors for a weak two-bid, Woodson maintained that any six-card suit was acceptable. Suit quality was irrelevant. You looked at your length and nothing else.

By the time I started playing in the late 60s, no one was bidding two diamonds over Stayman because their four-card major was too weak to bid. Still, most players did not go so far as Woodson in ignoring suit quality altogether. And rightly so. As is often the case with extreme points of view, the best approach lies somewhere in the middle.

Which brings us to this deal. Could it be right to open this hand with one heart rather than with one spade? There is no doubt one spade could work out poorly. If the auction proceeds one spade--one notrump--two hearts--two spades, you are probably in the wrong strain. On the other hand, if you open with one heart and partner bids one notrump, what do you do now? No action appeals. If I were playing Flannery, I might decide to treat spades as a four-card suit and open with two diamonds. But in standard methods, four-five in the majors is an awkward pattern. Why go out of my way to treat the hand as a pattern the system doesn't handle well? 

If you take one of the aces away, there is more to be said for opening with one heart. Now the auction rates to be competitive, when bidding where your high cards are is more important. But with this hand, I expect to buy the contract, so I open with open spade.

Partner bids two clubs, Drury, showing at least three spades and invitational values.

I could simply bid four spades. That's probably where we belong, and bidding it directly keeps the opponents in the dark. It may induce a poor opening lead or make the defense to the first few tricks harder. On the other hand, four hearts could easily be a better contract than four spades. In hearts, I may be able to pitch spades on minor-suit tricks in dummy. Or, if spades break four-one, I may even be able to ruff a spade loser.

It's not at all clear which consideration is more important, but, perhaps feeling guilty for not bidding hearts the first time, I decide to look for a heart fit. I bid two hearts.

Partner bids three clubs, I bid four hearts, and partner corrects back to four spades, ending the auction. LHO leads the eight of hearts.


NORTH
Robot
♠ K J 10
9 5
K J 4 3
♣ Q 10 8 4






SOUTH
Phillip
♠ 9 6 5 4 2
K Q 10 6 3
A 2
♣ A


West North East South
Robot Robot Robot Phillip

Pass Pass 1 ♠
Pass 2 ♣ Pass 2
Pass 3 ♣ Pass 4
Pass 4 ♠ (All pass)

Now I'm sorry I didn't just bid four spades. The lead into my bid and rebid suit is surely a singleton, and now East knows that. Had I bid a direct four spades, he wouldn't know whether the lead was a singleton or doubleton.

I play low from dummy, and East takes the ace. It should make no difference which low card I play. Even if it were possible for West to have a doubleton, that doubleton is just as apt to be eight-six as to be eight-three. But I decide to drop the six anyway. East shifts to the seven of clubs.

What? He must know I have five hearts. Could West have led a doubleton after all?

I take the ace, and West plays the three. I play the spade deuce and West follows with the three. There are situations where it would be right to play the king in an attempt to prevent a ruff. But I assume the defense would have taken a ruff already if it were available, so I see no reason not to make my normal play in spades. I play the ten, and East wins with the queen.

He returns the seven of spades to his partner's ace, and West shifts to the four of hearts. The hand is over. Making four.


NORTH
Robot
♠ K J 10
9 5
K J 4 3
♣ Q 10 8 4


WEST
Robot
♠ A 8 3
8 4
Q 8 6 5
♣ J 5 3 2


EAST
Robot
♠ Q 7
A J 7 2
10 9 7
♣ K 9 7 6


SOUTH
Phillip
♠ 9 6 5 4 2
K Q 10 6 3
A 2
♣ A

This seems like a perfectly normal result, but it's worth 86%. Several declarers went down in four spades on weird lines of play.

One player did try a one heart opening bid, but it didn't work out well. His partner bid one trump, he rebid two hearts, his partner raised to three, and he passed. Making three. Score one for electronic bidding.

Sunday, September 18, 2022

Free Weekly Instant Tournament - September 16 - Board 4

Board 4
Both vulnerable

♠ A K 8 4   5   A Q 8 4 3  ♣ A J 6  

Partner opens with one spade in second seat, and RHO passes.

We are probably reaching at least a small slam, and I need to consider a grand slam. With normal breaks, I can take all the tricks opposite as little as,

♠ Q x x x x   A x x   K x x  ♣ x x, 

which isn't even worth an opening bid. 

What is the best way to investigate? Four hearts would be a splinter, showing heart shortness and at least four-card spade support. But it would be a poor choice with this hand. Splinters should surrender captaincy. They are for describing your hand, then bowing out and leaving further moves to partner. This is hand is obviously too good for that.

Since a grand slam may depend on our diamond fit, it might make sense to start with two diamonds. Again, that start is more attractive when I wish to surrender captaincy. There are some hands where you want to describe your own hand and leave the final decision to partner, and there are others where you wish to inquire about partner's hand and make the final decision yourself. This hand falls into the latter category, so the best approach is to start with Jacoby two notrump. This approach allows you to find out about partner's hand and keep control of the auction.

I bid two notrump, and partner bids three diamonds, showing a singleton or void in diamonds. That's bad news. Our grand slam prospects go down when we don't have a diamond fit. I continue with four clubs, showing the club ace and denying the heart ace. Partner bids four hearts, showing the heart ace.

Now what? Let's give partner queen fifth of spades and the heart ace. An opening bid rarely has fewer than three controls, so he probably has either the heart king or club king. That gives us four cashing tricks. If we bid a grand slam, they will probably lead a trump, holding us to eight trump tricks on a crossruff. That's only twelve tricks. Of course there are a variety of ways to take another. Partner might have a sixth spade. He might have both the heart and club kings. He might have the queen to go with whichever king he has. I'm not going to be able to find out if partner has the right hand. But if I bid Blackwood, the auction may time out to enable me to invite a grand. Over four notrump, he will bid five diamonds. Then I will bid five hearts. If he bids six clubs to show the spade queen and club king, I can invite a grand with a cue-bid. Partner should have a fair idea whether he has an extra trick or not.

I bid four notrump, and partner bids six diamonds, showing an odd number of keycards and a diamond void. If I bid six spades now, partner is not allowed to bid again. While I still can't count thirteen tricks, I'm hardly content to sign off. If I let partner know I'm interested in a grand, perhaps he can bid it. The only forward-going bid available to me is six hearts, so that's what I bid. Partner isn't interested. He bids six spades, and I pass. RHO leads the king of hearts.


NORTH
Phillip
♠ A K 8 4
5
A Q 8 4 3
♣ A J 6






SOUTH
Robot
♠ Q J 10 9 2
A J 8 4 3
--
♣ K 10 4


West North East South
Robot Phillip Robot Robot


Pass 1 ♠
Pass 2 NT Pass 3
Pass 4 ♣ Pass 4
Pass 4 NT Pass 6
Pass 6 Pass 6 ♠
(All pass)


We have the four side tricks I anticipated. Since they didn't lead a trump, and since partner has excellent spots in the trump suit, we can probably crossruff nine tricks to bring us to thirteen.

Since I expect the field to be in this contract, I have to try to make seven even if I risk going down. The risk is small to begin with, and if I manage the play carefully, I can make it even smaller. One way I might go down is to have an opponent overruff a small trump and lead another trump. Now I score only seven trump tricks instead of nine. To avoid going down, I will then need to take three club tricks. Normally one cashes one's side winners before embarking on a crossruff. But in this case I'm not sure yet how many club tricks I need, so I must postpone cashing my club winners.

Hearts are more likely to be six-one than diamonds are to be seven-one, so I should start by ruffing a heart with dummy's four. I play a low heart from dummy. East play the deuce, and I take my ace. I play the heart three. West plays the six, I ruff with the four, and East follows with the seven. So far so good.

I could play ace and ruff a diamond now, continuing my plan of  testing whether two club tricks suffice. But the risk that someone has a stiff club is greater than the risk of a diamond overruff. Is there any way to guard against a stiff club? I may be able to survive a club ruff if I can cash an honor, then lead through the hand with the singleton, so that at least he isn't ruffing my winner. Since West might have led a singleton club, if anyone has a singleton club, it's more apt to be East, so I want to cash the club ace and lead toward the king. But if I cash the diamond ace and pitch a club, I won't be able to that, so I must play clubs first.

I cash the club ace--five--four--seven and lead the club jack. East plays the deuce, I rise with the king, and West follows with the eight. We're almost home.

I ruff another heart, and East pitches the five of diamonds. Everyone follows to the diamond ace and follows again when I ruff a diamond with the deuce. Now I can claim.


NORTH
Phillip
♠ A K 8 4
5
A Q 8 4 3
♣ A J 6


WEST
Robot
♠ 7 3
K Q 10 9 6
J 10 2
♣ Q 8 7


EAST
Robot
♠ 6 5
7 2
K 9 7 6 5
♣ 9 5 3 2


SOUTH
Robot
♠ Q J 10 9 2
A J 8 4 3
--
♣ K 10 4

Plus 1460 is worth 82%. The overtrick was important; 1430 would have been below average. Too bad my careful play wasn't necessary. It can be hard to put in the necessary effort to play a hand like this correctly. Seven looks cold once they don't lead a trump, and most of the time it will be, so you will probably get away with not working too hard. Still, if you make the extra effort, you will have some edge over those who don't--even if it's only a small edge.

One person did bid and make seven. He bid Blackwood directly over one spade, then bid seven over six diamonds. Given you get 82% for bidding six and not butchering the play, I don't think odds were in his favor with that decision--especially if West had led a trump and forced declarer to guess the club queen.

I don't care for the immediate Blackwood bid. If you are afraid LHO may pre-empt and deprive you of a chance to bid Blackwood, bidding it immediately may be a good idea. But that's not the case here. It probably can't hurt to bid two notrump first. You may find out something useful.

And there is another consideration that this hand illustrates. Even if you have an agreement that an immediate four notrump asks for keycards rather than just aces (an agreement not everyone has), an immediate four notrump should still allow you to select a different trump suit. After one spade--four notrump--six diamonds, it's not clear that six hearts is an invitation to seven spades. It might be construed as to play. An immediate two notrump bid, however, agrees spades unambiguously.

Sunday, September 11, 2022

Free Weekly Instant Tournament - September 9 - Board 3

Board 3
Opponents vulnerable

If the September 9 Free Weekly Instant Tournament is still available, give it a try before reading on.

I pick up this hand in first seat:

♠ A 10 4 3   K J 6   Q 5  ♣ A Q 7 3  

I open with one notrump and buy it. West leads the six of spades.


NORTH
Robot
♠ Q 8 5
10 5
A J 9 8 6
♣ 10 9 6






SOUTH
Phillip
♠ A 10 4 3
K J 6
Q 5
♣ A Q 7 3


West North East South
Robot Robot Robot Phillip



1 NT
(All pass)


The deuce is missing, so the lead could be from a five-card suit. It might also be from a doubleton. The robots like short-suit leads against notrump.

I have or can easily develop two spade tricks, one club, one heart, and two diamonds. Six tricks. I need one more to make this contract. I might find a second club trick if I guess which honor to finesse against. Or I might find several extra tricks in diamonds.

There is a problem with going after diamonds, however. If the spade lead was from shortness, I might have no dummy entry. I can try to keep communications by leading the queen and ducking if it's covered. Now if the ten drops, I have four diamond tricks. But if the queen isn't covered and holds, it's not clear how to proceed. Still, I see no better approach than riding the diamond queen, so I'll worry about that if it happens.

I play a low spade from dummy and East plays the jack. The fact that East played the jack increases the likelihood that the lead was from shortness. If West has led a doubleton spade, then East will always play the jack. But if West has led fourth best, then, by the Rule of Eleven, East has only one card higher than the six. So there is a good chance East doesn't have the jack to play. This is essentially a restricted choice argument. Of course it holds only because West is at least as likely to lead a short suit as not. Against an opponent who almost always chooses his longest suit, this argument would not be valid.

I win with the spade ace and lead the diamond queen. West plays the seven. Against a human, I might assume that either the seven is an honest count card or West has the king. It's dangerous for West to give false count without the king, since his partner needs to know how long to hold up. A robot, however, could play the seven from any holding. Sometimes they give accurate count when declarer attacks a suit; sometimes they don't.

I play low from dummy, and East takes the king. He would probably duck with king third, so I suspect he has either king doubleton or king-ten fourth. If I am right that West is short in spades, the former is more likely. It is tempting, therefore, to lead a diamond to the nine when I get in. Although that is a bit scary. I may wind up taking no diamond tricks at all if I try that.

East shifts to the four of hearts. I play low. West wins with the queen and cashes the ace. East follows with the nine, and I play the jack. West now shifts to the deuce of spades.

What? Why didn't West continue hearts? Could he have king fifth of spades after all and be attempting to establish his suit? Hardly. If that were his plan, he wouldn't have cashed the heart ace. So he must have a different reason for shifting to spades.

He would surely continue hearts if he had ace-queen fourth or fifth and the club king,  Even with ace-queen third of hearts and the club king, setting up heart tricks for his partner would look like a better idea than knocking out his partner's entry. The only way this play makes sense is if West is afraid the defense might lose the spade king if he doesn't cash it. Perhaps he has something like,

♠ 6 2   A Q x x   10 x x x  ♣ x x x.  

Since the robots assume I'm double-dummy, he would expect me to finesse against his diamond ten and run the suit. So if I have four club tricks, he will lose his partner's spade king if he doesn't cash it. One of dummy's spades will go on my heart king; the other, on my long club. While this construction might not be exactly right, I can be fairly certain the club king is onside--and probably the jack as well. Abandoning the heart suit makes no sense if West has a club trick.

There is no reason to play the spade queen from dummy. If I play low, East may take the king, giving me two spade tricks. I play low, and East plays the king. He, like his partner, must be afraid the defense will lose the spade king if he doesn't take it. This is further confirmation that the club king is onside. The defense, however, gives me more credit than I deserve in assuming I'm going to pick up the diamond suit. Despite their fears to the contrary, I can't see their cards. While I'm inclined to finesse West for the diamond ten, I haven't made up my mind yet.

East continues with the spade nine, and West discards the heart eight. I win with dummy's queen and lead the club ten. East covers with the jack, I play the queen, and West follows with the deuce.

Which major should I cash first? I already know how spades split. I might as well test the hearts. I cash the heart king, and West follows with the seven. I don't need dummy's fifth diamond. Nine doubleton of clubs in dummy might prove useful. It's hard to see how, but it doesn't hurt to hold onto it for one more round. I pitch a diamond, and East discards his last spade.

Wow! I wasn't expecting that. So West began with six hearts? I've changed my mind about finessing him for the diamond ten. East is 4-2 in the majors and probably 4-3 in the minors (on the assumption that he would have ducked the diamond with king third). This is the current position, with East presumably holding king-ten third of diamonds and king doubleton of clubs.


NORTH
Robot
♠ --
--
A J 9
♣ 9 6






SOUTH
Phillip
♠ 10
--
5
♣ A 7 3

I suspect I'm going to lose the last trick. Or maybe not. If East has  king-eight of clubs, the spade ten will squeeze him, and I'll take the rest.

I cash the spade ten. West discards the heart three, I discard a club from dummy, and East discards the club five. Oh, well. As expected, the diamond ten doesn't drop. I lose trick thirteen to West's club eight.


NORTH
Robot
♠ Q 8 5
10 5
A J 9 8 6
♣ 10 9 6


WEST
Robot
♠ 6 2
A Q 8 7 3 2
7 2
♣ 8 4 2


EAST
Robot
♠ K J 9 7
9 4
K 10 4 3
♣ K J 5


SOUTH
Phillip
♠ A 10 4 3
K J 6
Q 5
♣ A Q 7 3

Plus 120 is worth 79%.

Most declarers took only seven tricks for a variety of reasons. One particularly interesting error: When West cashed his hearts and shifted to the spade deuce, one declarer went up with the queen, allowing East the take the king and continue the suit. Declarer can still manage an overtrick, but it requires accurate card-reading. Playing low from dummy gives East the opportunity to make things easy for you by taking his king.

If West had king fifth of spades, rising the the king would be a sensible tactical move, preventing West from establishing his suit. But, as we saw, that's impossible. Declarer missed the inference that West would not cash the heart ace if he had a spade suit to establish.

Sunday, September 4, 2022

Free Weekly Instant Tournament - September 2 - Board 2

Board 2
Our side vulnerable

This is board two from this week's Free Instant Tournament on BBO. If you haven't played it yet, give it a try before reading on.

♠ Q 4   A K Q 10 8 4 3   Q 8 4  ♣ Q  

RHO passes. I have seven heart tricks and a smattering of queens, which should contribute a little more than half a trick. One heart followed by three hearts shows seven and a half to eight tricks, so that is my plan.

You can reach the same conclusion via point count. You have 15 HCP, minus two for the two unprotected queens, plus one for the fifth heart, one for the sixth heart, and two for the seventh. That makes 17, and a three-heart rebid is 17 to 18 total points. Personally, I find counting tricks easier. Counting points and making all the necessary adjustments for good and bad honors is just a way to approximate counting tricks anyway. Why not simply count them?

I open with one heart, and partner responds with one spade. The spade queen is worth a little more now that partner has bid the suit. I can count this hand as a full eight tricks or, if counting points, as 18 points. In either case, my revaluation simply places me at the top of my range for a three-heart bid. I rebid three hearts, and partner bids three spades.

This is an awkward auction in standard methods. Partner usually has six spades, but he doesn't have to. I could easily have three spades, so if partner has five spades and a singleton heart, a three-notrump bid by him risks our missing a five-three spade fit. He must use his judgment and choose the rebid that he expects to work out most of the time. Similarly, while opener often raises with a doubleton honor, he doesn't have to. He must use his judgment as well, choosing among three notrump, four hearts, or four spades.

With this hand, I am not tempted to raise spades, since my hearts are playable opposite a void. The only choice is between four hearts and three notrump. Three notrump is often right when your hearts are solid. But with such soft side values, I’m concerned I will have tempo problems in three notrump. So I bid four hearts.

Partner passes, and West leads the five of clubs.


NORTH
Robot
♠ K 8 7 6 5 2
--
A J 9 7
♣ A 6 2






SOUTH
Phillip
♠ Q 4
A K Q 10 8 4 3
Q 8 4
♣ Q


West North East South
Robot Robot Robot Phillip


Pass 1
Pass 1 ♠ Pass 3
Pass 3 ♠ Pass 4
(All pass)


I have a spade loser, possibly one or more heart losers, and possibly one diamond loser. I may be able to pitch one diamond on a spade, avoiding a diamond loser if the king is onside. If the West doesn't manage a diamond shift in time, I may be able to pitch two diamonds and avoid a diamond finesse altogether.

Is there any reason to duck the club? Yes. If West has led from the club king, I could conceivably take all the tricks: two clubs, seven hearts, and four diamonds. That would take quite a bit of luck, however. There are many layouts where I have no useful pitch on the club ace, so the finesse gains nothing even when it works. Even if I thought West was a favorite to hold the club king, it’s not clear that it’s right to finesse. It surely isn’t right when the finesse is 50-50 at best.

I take the club ace, and East follows with the four. The three is still missing. 

I have two choices at this point. I can ruff a club, draw trump, and attack spades. Or I can immediately lead a spade to the queen. The latter offers two advantages: (1) If East has the ace, he may hop, either because he has no choice (i.e., it's singleton) or because he is afraid I have a stiff queen. (2) If West has the ace and East has the diamond king, West may win and try to cash a club instead of shifting to a diamond. If I ruff a club to my hand, he will know the club isn't cashing. Of course, he should know it isn't cashing anyway, since I would have ducked the opening lead with queen doubleton. But the robots are incapable of drawing such inferences.

The disadvantage of playing a spade immediately is that West may have ace fourth of spades and give his partner a ruff. But he doesn't know which of us has the stiff spade, so even if he does have ace fourth, he might not find the continuation. And if he does, it's possible East will be ruffing with a natural trump trick

I play a spade from dummy--jack--queen--ace. East plays the nine of clubs--deuce--king--heart three. I cash three hearts, pitching a card from each suit from dummy, and find hearts three-three. If spades break, I have the rest. If not--if East shows out when I lead a spade to the king--I will have to decide whether to play safe for five by playing on diamonds or to try for six by squeezing West down to a doubleton diamond king. If I play for the squeeze and the diamond king is offside, I will hold myself to four--or conceivably go down if East stiffs the diamond king.

But no need to worry about that yet. I play a spade--ten--king--three. I can now claim.


NORTH
Robot
♠ K 8 7 6 5 2
--
A J 9 7
♣ A 6 2


WEST
Robot
♠ A 10
J 9 6
K 6 5 3 2
♣ 9 7 5


EAST
Robot
♠ J 9 3
7 5 2
10
♣ K J 10 8 4 3


SOUTH
Phillip
♠ Q 4
A K Q 10 8 4 3
Q 8 4
♣ Q

Plus 680 is worth 61%, thanks to a handful of players who chose to raise three spades to four

Nobody tried three notrump over three spades. Perhaps partner would have pulled it. If he doesn't, and if West chooses to lead a diamond, I can go plus 690--assuming I take care to unblock the nine at trick one. Actually, since West has the spade ace, I don't need to unblock, do I? I can win the diamond queen, cash seven hearts, and take a diamond finesse. Now the club ace squeezes West down to a stiff ace of spades, and I can toss him in to lead another diamond.