Sunday, October 31, 2010

Match 2 - Board 27

Board 27
Neither vulnerable

♠ 7 4 3 K 9 7 K 9 8 4 ♣ K 10 4

I pass in first seat. LHO opens with one spade, and RHO bids two diamonds. I pass. LHO rebids two spades, and RHO raises to four. Partner leads the deuce of hearts (third and lowest).


NORTH
♠ A J 9
Q 4
A Q J 7 5 2
♣ J 5




EAST
♠ 7 4 3
K 9 7
K 9 8 4
♣ K 10 4


WestNorthEastSouth
Pass1 ♠
Pass2 Pass2 ♠1
Pass4 ♠(All pass)
1Forcing


The first thing I do when dummy hits is to take note of and memorize the outstanding diamond spots: the three, six, and ten. I once complimented a player for his table presence. Whenever he held a suit like this and played low to the queen, winning the trick, he always seemed to know without any doubt whether the king was onside or whether his RHO had ducked. "That's easy," he told me. "The guy who has the king is the one who glances at dummy's spot cards after his partner plays."

Partner seems to have five hearts. I'm not sure what the opponents' style is with regard to the two spade bid. But I'll assume that South has either six spades or five spades with a side club suit. That makes South's likeliest patterns 6-3-1-3, 6-3-2-2, or 5-3-1-4.

Declarer plays low from dummy. That's a revealing play. If declarer has ace-jack third of hearts, he would normally play the queen as a discovery play. It gains to play low only if I have a singleton king (which seems unlikely) or if declarer needs to win the first trick in his hand (which does not seem to be the case here). The advantages of playing the queen are: (1) declarer finds out where the king is, which will help him in constructing the defenders' hands, and (2) it conceals the location of the jack from both opponents. So I assume declarer has ace-ten third of hearts.

If I'm right about that, then partner probably has the club ace. Leading from the jack is not particulary attractive, and there is no instrinsic reason from the auction that partner should lead a heart rather than a club. The likeliest reason for choosing a heart over a club is that he has the club ace.

If I'm right that partner has the club ace, then I can draw the further conclusion that declarer probably does not have a doubleton club. With ace-ten third of hearts and two small clubs (or queen doubleton), declarer would want to guess whether partner has led from the jack or from the king and play accordingly. Since defenders are more likely to lead from a king than from a jack, the queen is the normal guess. With ace-ten third of hearts and three small clubs (or queen third), however, it would be logical to play low to ensure taking a second heart trick. Declarer doesn't have the tempi to ruff both the third round of hearts and the third round of clubs. So guessing hearts doesn't gain anything. Declarer would be unlikely to go down in this contract if he plays low at trick one. He might well go down if he plays the queen and it gets covered.

I play the nine, and declarer wins with the jack. Poof! The entire chain of conclusions I reached above has now gone up in smoke. Playing low from dummy with ace-jack third in your hand is such an unusual play that, opposite some partners, I would be virtually certain that partner had underled the heart ace. In this case, however, I will just assume that Jack doesn't appreciate the value of information. On purely technical grounds, low is the correct play, so Jack chose it.

Declarer plays the deuce of spades--six--jack. I play the four. Offhand, this play doesn't appear to make any sense. If declarer intends to take ruffs in dummy, he shouldn't be playing trumps. And if he intends to establish diamonds, he shouldn't be wasting dummy entries.

Declarer leads the queen of hearts. I can't imagine he's going to let this ride, so I play low. If declarer didn't want to make a discovery play at trick one, I'm not going to help him out now. Declarer plays the ace, and partner follows with the three. Now declarer attacks diamonds: six--three--ace. I guess partner wasn't sure he could afford the ten. I've seen him give away tricks in the past with his count signals. I'm not sure why he's being more careful this time, but I'm happy to see it. I play the four and follow with the eight when declarer leads a low diamond from dummy.

Declarer ruffs with the five of spades, then plays the eight of spades to dummy's nine as partner pitches the five of hearts. Two mistakes in a row. With king-queen-ten-eight-five of spades, there is no reason not to ruff the diamonds high (with at least the ten). He should then led the five of spades to the ace, not the nine. Even if he can't imagine why he would want to win the third round of spades in his hand, what does it hurt to keep his options open? Sometimes the reason doesn't occur to you until later, for example, a half a second after you call for the nine.

Declarer leads the queen of diamonds from dummy. I play the nine, and declarer ruffs. With diamonds not breaking, all declarer can do now is ruff a heart in the dummy and lose three club tricks. Making four.


NORTH
♠ A J 9
Q 4
A Q J 7 5 2
♣ J 5


WEST
♠ 6
10 8 5 3 2
10 3
♣ A 9 7 6 3


EAST
♠ 7 4 3
K 9 7
K 9 8 4
♣ K 10 4


SOUTH
♠ K Q 10 8 5 2
A J 6
6
♣ Q 8 2



As I thought, leading a spade to dummy at trick two was an error. If declarer had started diamonds right away, he would have had enough dummy entries to make five. You might think that making five would be the normal result, but no one acheived that. One pair made six. Everyone else made four. Presumably the declarer who made six chose to take a ruffing finesse against the king of diamonds. Perhaps his West got into the auction and tipped off his two-suiter.

Score on Board 27: -420 (7 MP)
Total: 214 MP (66.0%)

Current rank: 1st

Sunday, October 24, 2010

Match 2 - Board 26

Both sides vulnerable

♠ A 6 A 10 9 7 2 A 6 4 3 ♣ K 10

RHO passes. I open one heart. LHO overcalls one spade, partner bids two diamonds, and RHO bids two hearts, showing a constructive spade raise.

I have enough to force to game opposite partner's two diamond bid, and three diamonds isn't forcing in this style, so I cue-bid two spades. Partner bids three diamonds. Since my two spade bid did not guarantee support, partner probably has six diamonds. Jack thinks I should bid five diamonds at this point. That might be right if partner has a singleton heart. In that case, I might be able to hold my losses in five diamonds to a spade and a club when three notrump has no play. But any time partner doesn't have a singleton heart, it seems unlikely that I would be making five diamonds unless I'm also making three notrump.

I could punt with three spades, asking partner to bid three notrump with either solid diamonds (which I know he doesn't have) or help in spades. But I'm not so sure I need help in spades. Why can't partner have the club ace or the heart king or a seventh diamond? Even the heart queen may be enough for me to make three notrump on a strip squeeze. I bid three notrump, and everyone passes. West leads the ten of spades.


NORTH
♠ J 8 2
Q 6
K Q 10 8 7 2
♣ Q 5






SOUTH
♠ A 6
A 10 9 7 2
A 6 4 3
♣ K 10



WestNorthEastSouth
Pass1
1 ♠2 2 12 ♠
Pass3 Pass3 NT
(All pass)
1Constructive raise


Well, I hope I was right about that strip squeeze. I cover the ten with the jack to isolate the spade stopper in West's hand. East plays the queen. I have no particular reason to win this. Maybe if I duck, East will find something clever to do. I play low. No clever antics are forthcoming. East simply continues with the seven of spades--ace--three--deuce.

Given the auction, the heart king and club ace are surely split. Probably East has the club ace, since he the heart king will not look like a particularly good card to him, and he seems to be light for his two heart bid as it is. If so, West can't defend the end position. He must come down to five cards. If he discards a spade, I can simply drive the club ace. So he must come down to three spades and two hearts, throwing all his clubs away. I can now toss him in with a spade to lead away from the king of hearts.

If the heart king and club ace are switched, I can still make this provided West has the heart jack. To hold all his spades and the club ace, he must stiff the heart jack. I can now lead the heart queen to pin it.

I play a diamond to the queen and play the seven of diamonds back to my ace. (I doubt very much if I'm going to need that deuce of diamonds. But what does it hurt to hold on to it? One of these days this habit of routinely retaining deuces is going to pay off.) West plays nine-jack of diamonds. East follows once, then discards the club deuce.

It's a good idea in these situations to make an initial guess about how the cards lie, then modify that guess as you go along if the opponents' discards are inconsistent with your picture. If you wait until you're through running the diamonds before you try to reconstruct the unseen hands, it's easy to overlook an inference. Reading the ending on this deal could be difficult. The defenders already knows they have to come down to five cards. So West knows his objective. He must either stiff the heart king while making it appear that he hasn't, or he must retain king doubleton of hearts while making it appear that he has stiffed it. It's East's job to figure out what hand West is trying to represent and to cooperate.

For my initial guess, I'm going to place West with 5-2-2-4 and East with 3-4-1-5. That seems like the single likeliest pattern.

I play a diamond to dummy. West discards the heart three; East the club three. Possibly West is being tricky and stiffing his heart king right away. But Jack isn't usually so deviousl. So I'm inclined to doubt that he began with a doubleton heart. I'm going to revise my guess. I'm now guessing that West started with 5-3-2-3; East, with 3-3-1-6. Having a six-card side suit is perhaps more consistent with his aggressive two heart bid anyway. On the next diamond, East plays the club four; West, the heart five. This doesn't look good. Could West have started with three small hearts? If so, I'm not making this. Perhaps he has jack third of hearts and is hoping his partner has king-ten (or the ace).

On the penultimate diamond, East plays the heart four. I pitch the heart seven, and West pitches the five of spades. Not a good move, West. Now I'm cold. Both opponents pitch clubs on the last diamond. I drive the club ace and claim my nine tricks.


NORTH
♠ J 8 2
Q 6
K Q 10 8 7 2
♣ Q 5


WEST
♠ K 10 9 5 3
K J 5 3
J 9
♣ 9 7


EAST
♠ Q 7 4
8 4
5
♣ A J 8 6 4 3 2


SOUTH
♠ A 6
A 10 9 7 2
A 6 4 3
♣ K 10



West had a golden opportunity to mislead me. I wasn't expecting East to have seven clubs. West should have represented 5-3-2-3 and pitched two clubs and two hearts. I might then play him to have stiffed one honor or the other and go down. We again see the difficulties in teaching a computer to play bridge. Jack can tell that there is no defense, so he gives up. Since he can't look at the deal from his opponent's point of view, he has no way to see that pitching a spade offers declarer no realistic opportunity to make a mistake, whereas pitching two hearts and two clubs does.

Only one other pair reached three notrump. That pair was also plus 600. Every other pair was down in five diamonds, so we get 11 matchpoints.

Score on Board 26: +600 (11 MP)
Total: 207 (66.3%)

Current rank: 1st

Sunday, October 17, 2010

Match 2 - Board 25

Board 25
Opponents vulnerable

♠ J 6 5 3 A J 7 Q 10 7 ♣ Q 10 4

Two passes to me. I pass. LHO passes. Great! I've been dreading this hand since I started this blog. How do I find something instructive to say about a pass-out?

Actually, there is something instructive to say. If we let partner open a light 12-14 one notrump and buy it, it turns out East might be presented with quite an interesting defensive problem (though a moot one as the cards lie):


NORTH
♠ J 6 5 3
A J 7
Q 10 7
♣ Q 10 4




EAST
♠ A 7 4
6 5 4 3
9 8 4
♣ A 9 7


WestNorthEastSouth
1 NT
(All pass)


Partner leads the deuce of hearts. Declarer plays low from the dummy, you give count with the six, and declarer wins with the ten. Declarer plays the deuce of diamonds--five--queen--four, then leads the ten of diamonds. You play the nine. It's important to play this card, so partner will know for sure you don't have the jack and will have an easier time counting declarer's hand. Declarer plays the three, and partner wins with the ace. Declarer presumably has either king-jack fourth or king-jack fifth of diamonds,

Partner continues with the eight of hearts--jack--three--king. Declarer leads the six of clubs--deuce--ten.

If we assume that partner has four hearts, that his count card in clubs is honest, and that declarer is not off-shape, then declarer must be 3-2-4-4. Any one of those three assumptions might be wrong. But, for the time being, we'll credit declarer with that shape. Declarer has five to seven high-card points unaccounted for. (Ignore for the moment the fact that we know he doesn't have them, since he didn't open actually one notrump at the table.) That means he has one of three hands (where the '?' could be either the club jack or a small club):

(A) ♠ Q x x K 10 K J x x ♣ K ? x x
(B) ♠ K x x K 10 K J x x ♣ K ? x x
(C) ♠ K Q x K 10 K J x x ♣ ? x x x

He would probably attack spades, not clubs, with (C). So let's give him either (A) or (B). In either case, he will make nine tricks if you take your ace and continue hearts. If he has (A), however, you can hold him to eight tricks by ducking.  If declarer continue clubs, you win and play a diamond. Declarer's entries are tangled up. He must leave either dummy's heart or his long club stranded.  (It might also work to duck the second club. But I don't see any particular reason to verify that fact.  As in chess, it's easier to analyze positions where you take control.)

Is this the interesting problem? Not yet. This is pretty straight-forward so far. Let's continue. You duck. Declarer plays a low club from dummy. You hop with the ace--eight--five. You shift to the eight of diamonds--king--six--seven. Declarer cashes the jack of diamonds, plays a club to dummy's queen, and cashes the heart ace. We are down to this end position:


NORTH
♠ J 6 5
--
--
♣ --


WEST
♠ ? ?
Q
--
♣ --


EAST
♠ A 7
4
--
♣ --


SOUTH
♠ ? ?
--
-
♣ K



If declarer has the spade queen, you have the rest. But what if he has the king? What should you do when declarer leads a low spade from dummy? If you duck, declarer can take ten tricks. If you hop, you hold him to nine. Clearly you should hop if declarer has the king alone. But what if he has king-ten? Then you must duck. If declarer finesses the ten, he will take only eight tricks. True, he still can take ten tricks by playing the king, but he probably won't precisely because you might hop with the ace if you had it. The king can't be any better than 50%; and the ten can't be any worse. So this isn't even a game-theoretical problem. Depending on what East is inclined to do, the ten is either a better play than king or equally as good. The ten is unambigously declarer's percentage play.

So what should you do as defender? If you trust partner, you should duck. Partner is double-dummy at the point you return a diamond. If he has queen-ten of spades, he can anticipate your problem. He knows good and well he doesn't want you to duck when declarer leads a low spade off dummy. So, when declarer cashes the last diamond, he should throw the ten of spades to let you know declarer doesn't have a guess. If a trustworthy partner doesn't throw the ten spades, he doesn't have it. So you should duck.

Is that the interesting problem? No. This is still pretty routine stuff. The interesting problem comes if declarer doesn't cash the last diamond. What if he decides not to give your partner a chance to discard? Suppose he wins your diamond return and immediately plays a club to the queen to cash the heart ace? (This line does involve some risk. We'll leave unanswered the question of whether declarer should actually do this or not.)

Now the only way partner can communicate with you is through his choice of plays on the ace of hearts. How should he get the message across? I suspect that most experts would use suit-preference. When declarer cashes the heart ace, they would play the queen to show the spade ten and the nine to deny it. I think to signal this way is a mistake. Suit preference will work in this particular case, but only because we lucked out. It happens, by sheer accident, that it is a black suit we care about.

Suit preference works just fine when there are two suits under consideration. When you are concerned with only one suit, however, it doesn't always work so well. It does work sometimes. If spades is the suit you are worried about, you can certainly play high for "yes" and low for "no," and vice versa when clubs is the suit you are worried about. But what do you do about the red suits? In this deal, what if we simply switch the spade and diamond suits? How would you signal in hearts to show or deny possession of the diamond ten?

When there is only one suit in play, I think the proper signal to use is surrogate attitude - a sort of "Smith echo" for the relevant suit. So I agree that a high heart should show the spade ten, but for a different reason than everyone else. The fact that the suit is spades has nothing to do with it. It would also show the club ten or the diamond ten if we switched the suits around accordingly.

On the actual hand, as you already know, it doesn't matter whether you duck or not:


NORTH
♠ J 6 5 3
A J 7
Q 10 7
♣ Q 10 4


WEST
♠ K Q 9
Q 9 8 2
A 6 5
♣ 5 3 2


EAST
♠ A 7 4
6 5 4 3
9 8 4
♣ A 9 7


SOUTH
♠ 10 8 2
K 10
K J 3 2
♣ K J 8 6



The hand was passed out at all tables, so we get six matchpoints.

Score on Board 25: 0 (6 MP)
Total: 196 (65.3%)

Current Rank: 1st

Sunday, October 10, 2010

Match 2 - Board 24

Board 24
Neither vulnerable

♠ 10 3 K Q 10 4 3 9 7 3 ♣ K Q 6

LHO opens one heart--pass--one spade to me. I pass, LHO bids two clubs, which is passed around to me. I pass, and partner leads the six of diamonds.


NORTH
♠ Q 8 6 5 2
7
A 8 5 4
♣ 7 5 3




EAST
♠ 10 3
K Q 10 4 3
9 7 3
♣ K Q 6


WestNorthEastSouth
1
Pass1 ♠Pass2 ♣
(All pass)


I'm not sure why partner is leading diamonds. This misfit auction calls for a trump lead, especially looking at short hearts. Declarer plays the eight from dummy. If declarer has queen-jack doubleton, I would like to play low so partner will know he has a safe exit with the diamond king. But it's possible declarer has queen-jack-deuce, so I suppose I should cover. I play the nine. Declarer wins with the queen and plays the four of spades. Partner plays the nine, dummy the queen, and I give count with the ten. I guess declarer did have queen-jack doubleton of diamonds. He made a good play from dummy at trick one, preventing me from clarifying the suit for partner. Partner probably ducked because he thought the spade was a singleton, and he would prefer to have me on play for either a trump shift or a second diamond.

I expect declarer to play a heart to the ace and ruff a heart, but he surprises me by leading the three of clubs. The only time it can be right for me to split is when I lose a critical tempo by playing low. Declarer is playing this hand as if he has all the time in the world. So, whatever is going on, it does not appear that tempo is important on this deal. I play the six. Declarer plays the ace, and partner follows with the eight.

Declarer cashes the heart ace--five--seven--three, then leads the heart jack (yes, the jack)--deuce--five of clubs--four. He plays a spade to the ace, as partner follows with the seven then leads the six of hearts. Partner ruffs with the ten, and declarer pitches the four of diamonds from dummy. I play the king to clarify the heart suit.

Partner plays the club jack, and we collect two trumps and two heart tricks, holding declarer to his contract.


NORTH
♠ Q 8 6 5 2
7
A 8 5 4
♣ 7 5 3


WEST
♠ K J 9 7
5 2
K J 6 2
♣ J 10 8


EAST
♠ 10 3
K Q 10 4 3
9 7 3
♣ K Q 6


SOUTH
♠ A 4
A J 9 8 6
Q 10
♣ A 9 4 2



I see. Queen-ten doubleton of diamonds. Not queen-jack. Tricky.

I would guess this not a particularly good result. A routine eight of clubs lead beats two clubs. After the diamond lead, there was nothing we could do. Hopping with the spade king wouldn't help. At least it wouldn't beat it. It would help to hold it to two. Declarer should have made three once the queen of spades held. A club to the ace looked wrong, and it was. Declarer can play a heart to the ace and ruff a heart. Then a spade to the ace and another heart. Partner ruffs in and leads a trump. Declarer wins with the ace and plays another heart. Partner can ruff in again, but we can't get the last trump off the table. Declarer will score one more heart ruff for his ninth trick.

To my surprise, this result is worth ten matchpoints. No one beat two clubs, and two pairs managed to make four. I can't imagine how. Even the jack of diamonds lead doesn't give declarer four. Somehow declarer must draw trumps and hold his side-suit losses to one trick.

How about this? Diamond to the queen, spade to the queen, heart from dummy. East splits. Declarer takes his ace and ducks a trump. The defense returns a spade. Declarer wins, ruffs a heart, plays ace and ruffs a diamond, then ace and a trump, endplaying East, who has failed to unblock. No, that still doesn't work. East is down to queen-ten-small of hearts, and declarer has jack-nine-eight. So East can exit with a low heart and still score two heart tricks. I give up.

Score on Board 24: -90 (10 MP)
Total: 190 (66.0%)

Current Rank: 1st

Sunday, October 3, 2010

Match 2 - Board 23

Board 23
Both sides vulnerable

♠ -- A 7 6 4 A K Q 7 5 ♣ A 6 3 2

I open one diamond, and partner responds one heart. This hand is too good simply to splinter with three spades. I would bid three spades if my diamond deuce were a small spade, and this hand is about a trick and a half better. The way to show a hand too good to splinter is to start with a jump shift, hoping to be able to jump in partner's suit at your next turn. That doesn't always work out, however. If partner is so thoughtless as to rebid his suit, for example, you have a problem. Some play that, if responder does rebid his suit over a jump shift, a bid of fourth suit by opener is articial, specifically showing the too-good-to-splinter hand. In this auction, however, fourth suit would be below three notrump, so I don't think it should mean that. It should simply be a probe for the right game. So, if I bid three clubs and partner does rebid three hearts, I will have no choice but to drive past game. Since I can conceivably make a grand slam opposite five hearts to the king and out, I don't mind that so much. I bid three clubs.

Over three clubs, partner bids three notrump. I can't jump any more. But simply pulling three notrump to four hearts shows four trumps, so partner will know this is a prepared auction. I bid four hearts, and partner raises to six. I pass, and RHO leads the king of clubs.


NORTH
♠ --
A 7 6 4
A K Q 7 5
♣ A 6 3 2






SOUTH
♠ Q 5 4 3
K 10 9 8 5
J 3
♣ J 10



WestNorthEastSouth
1 Pass1
Pass3 ♣Pass3 NT
Pass4 Pass6
(All pass)


Three notrump with queen fourth of spades was not a good call. Partner should have shown a preference with three diamonds. After opener's jump shift, responder should generally prefer this preference to save room if no other bid stands out. But everything worked out OK. Six hearts looks like the right spot.

If hearts are three-one, I will need to find at least two diamonds in the hand with the long heart. Is there anything I can do about four-zero hearts? Possibly. The play will involve cashing as many diamonds as I can and crossruffing black suits. It's clear that cashing the heart ace leaves me better placed to execute that plan than cashing the king. That's as far ahead as I need to think at this point.

I cash the heart ace, and everyone follows low. I continue with a heart to the king. Again, everyone follows. Unless diamonds are five-one, I have the rest. Is there any way I can take the rest if diamonds don't split? I don't have enough entries to my hand to ruff two spades, then run trumps for a squeeze. Perhaps the best thing to do is not to ruff the spades right away but to save the ruffs as dummy entries. If someone makes a mistake and pitches a club from, say, 8xxx, I can use those entries to ruff out clubs and cash a club trick.

It may seem like an unlikely mistake for someone to make. But I can give them a little nudge by pitching a spade from my hand on the third round of diamonds. The opponents will expect me to pitch a club on the third diamond. If I pitch a spade instead, they may lazily conclude that I don't have a club. The hand with 8xxx of clubs, thinking his partner has KQ109, may see no reason to keep all his clubs. It's surprising how often opponents make mistakes like that, especially if you hum a little lullaby as you run the diamonds, so it pays to give them the chance. I do think this mistake is more likely than my legitimate shot of finding someone with ace-king doubleton of spades. So I don't ruff any spades. I cash the jack of diamonds and play a diamond to dummy. Everyone follows. No mistakes are required. I claim.


NORTH
♠ --
A 7 6 4
A K Q 7 5
♣ A 6 3 2


WEST
♠ J 10 8 7 2
J 2
9 4
♣ K Q 8 5


EAST
♠ A K 9 6
Q 3
10 8 6 2
♣ 9 7 4


SOUTH
♠ Q 5 4 3
K 10 9 8 5
J 3
♣ J 10


Only two other pairs reached a slam, so this result is worth ten matchpoints. Come to think of it, six hearts was a rather aggressive call with partner's hand. Change my diamond queen to the heart queen, and six isn't much of a contract. But I can't say that I have any good suggestions as to how the auction should proceed from that point. If anyone does, please comment.

Score on Board 23: +1460 (10 MP)
Total: 180 (65.2%)

Current Rank: 1st