Event 3 - Match 4 - Board 6

Board 6
Opponents vulnerable

♠ A 10 6 5 ♥ J 4 ♦ K Q 9 4 2 ♣ 6 3

RHO opens one spade. I'm tempted to bid two diamonds, stretching a bit because of the four-card spade suit. But I think that is stretching a bit too much. I would certainly bid if partner were a passed hand. But opposite an unpassed hand, I'm not willing to risk partner's driving to three notrump and going minus when we should be going plus on defense. Even opposite an unpassed hand, I would bid if the red suits were reversed. Two hearts is more obstructive, since it takes up more room than two diamonds, and it is less apt to land us in an unmakable game. (The spade length is an asset in four hearts, since it gives me losers to ruff in dummy.)

I pass, LHO bids two hearts, and partner bids three clubs. RHO passes, I pass, and LHO bids three notrump, ending the auction. Partner leads the five of diamonds. What a nice partner. He leads my suit without my even needing to bid it.

	NORTH William ♠ K Q 9 4 3 2 ♥ A ♦ J 8 6 3 ♣ J 7
		EAST Phillip ♠ A 10 6 5 ♥ J 4 ♦ K Q 9 4 2 ♣ 6 3

West	North	East	South
Jack	William	Phillip	Harry
	1 ♠	Pass	2 ♥
3 ♣	Pass	Pass	3 NT
(All pass)

Partner has either one or three diamonds. One is considerably more likely, since if declarer has the singleton, he would have either seven hearts or three-card spade support, giving him a strange three notrump call. If I place declarer with three diamonds, his likeliest shape is 1-6-3-3.

Why didn't partner lead a club? Clubs must be a likelier source of tricks than a singleton in a suit I wasn't willing to bid at the two level. Perhaps he has ace-queen-ten of clubs and was hoping we could run the suit off the top. One thing I can be fairly sure of: He doesn't have a heart honor. With a probable entry in hearts, he would have led his own suit, even from ace-queen.

Declarer will presumably win the diamond ace, unblock the heart ace, and lead a diamond toward his ten. I will hop and play a club. If partner has ace-queen seventh of clubs, we will take a lot of tricks. If he has ace-queen sixth, he will have to duck, allowing declarer to win with dummy's jack. Declarer will now lead a diamond to the ten and try to run hearts. If he has six heart tricks, he will make this. If his hearts aren't running (perhaps partner has ten fourth) or if he has only five hearts (giving partner 1-5-1-6), then he will go down.

Declarer plays the seven of diamonds from dummy, I play the queen, and declarer wins with the ace. Declarer leads the seven of spades. Partner plays the eight, and declarer plays the queen from dummy. What is going on? For starters, who has the jack of spades? If declarer has it, he obviously isn't trying to establish spades. If he were, he would lead the jack to avoid blocking the suit. But perhaps one spade trick is all he needs. Perhaps he is retaining the spade jack as a hand entry, so that I can't profitably win the spade ace remove his diamond entry while the hearts are still blocked.

But why block the hearts? If one spade trick is all he needs, why not play a heart to the ace and a spade toward his jack? His failure to unblock in hearts suggests he does have a singleton spade and he needs the heart ace as an entry to his spade trick.

I'm not entirely sure what is going on. This is such an unexpected play, it feels as if I should be able to call declarer's hand. But, annoyingly, I can't. In any event, it's hard to see how it can be wrong to win this trick and play a club. I take the ace and shift to the six of clubs--four--queen--seven. Partner cashes the ace of clubs, dropping declarer's king, then continues with the ten of clubs. Declarer pitches a spade from dummy.

So it was wrong to win the spade ace and play a club. I was supposed to cash the diamond king first. Now I may lose it. Declarer must be 2-6-3-2, giving partner 1-4-1-7. After partner runs the clubs, he will have nothing but hearts left. Declarer doesn't know that, of course, so he may have a hard time figuring out what to keep in the end position. It must be to our advantage to convince him to keep two diamonds in dummy. If declarer thinks partner has another diamond, he will keep jack doubleton of diamonds in dummy and the ten in his hand to prevent us from scoring two diamond tricks. So I must hold three diamonds (making him think I have two and partner has one) as long as possible.

I start by pitching the heart four, probably not the pitch declarer expects me to make with lots of diamonds. Declarer pitches the five of hearts. On the next club, dummy pitches the three of diamonds. I pitch the diamond four, hoping to persuade declarer that partner has the deuce. Declarer pitches the heart six. On the next club, dummy pitches another spade. If I am to keep up the illusion, I can't afford another diamond. I pitch the five of spades, and declarer pitches the seven of diamonds. Partner cashes the penultimate club, and dummy pitches a spade. I can't afford another spade. And I may need the heart jack. So the jig is up. I pitch the diamond deuce. Declarer pitches the eight of hearts. We are down to this position (assuming my inference that partner doesn't have a heart honor is correct):

	NORTH William ♠ K 9 ♥ A ♦ J 6 ♣ --
WEST Jack ♠ -- ♥ x x x x ♦ -- ♣ 2		EAST Phillip ♠ 10 6 ♥ J ♦ K 9 ♣ --
	SOUTH Harry ♠ J ♥ K Q x ♦ 10 ♣ --

On the last club, dummy pitches the ace of hearts, I pitch the diamond nine; declarer, the diamond ten. If partner has the ten of hearts, we will we score a trick at the end. He does, so declarer is down five.

	NORTH William ♠ K Q 9 4 3 2 ♥ A ♦ J 8 6 3 ♣ J 7
WEST Jack ♠ 8 ♥ 10 7 3 2 ♦ 5 ♣ A Q 10 9 8 5 2		EAST Phillip ♠ A 10 6 5 ♥ J 4 ♦ K Q 9 4 2 ♣ 6 3
	SOUTH Harry ♠ J 7 ♥ K Q 9 8 6 5 ♦ A 10 7 ♣ K 4

Declarer has two ways to take the rest of the tricks in the diagrammed position: (1) He can pitch a diamond from both hands. Since partner can't play a spade, declarer has the entries to untangle the heart suit. (2) He can pitch a heart from both hands. Partner must play a heart to declarer's king-queen, and I get squeezed in spades and diamonds. Either play would have failed, however, if partner had a spade to lead. Declarer apparently decided to hope that his hearts were good instead.

The opponents can't make any game. They should have doubled us in three clubs, though it's hard to see how to manage that. North certainly doesn't have a double, and it's hard for South to double with king doubleton of clubs in the slot, especially at this vulnerability. He could be accepting a small penalty against a cold vulnerable game. On an unlucky day, three clubs might even be making.

Our teammates played four hearts down two, so we pick up seven imps to trail by three. The extra undertrick was important. Without it we would have picked up only five imps. Two boards left, and we are within striking distance.

Table 1: +500
Table 2: -200

Result on Board 6: +7 imps
Total: -3 imps

Event 3 - Match 4 - Board 5

Board 5
Our side vulnerable

♠ Q 10 9 7 4 ♥ A ♦ 8 7 4 2 ♣ 9 6 3

Partner passes in first seat and RHO opens three clubs. I pass, LHO bids three hearts, and RHO raises to four. Partner leads the spade ace.

	NORTH William ♠ -- ♥ J 9 2 ♦ A J 10 5 ♣ K J 10 8 7 4
		EAST Phillip ♠ Q 10 9 7 4 ♥ A ♦ 8 7 4 2 ♣ 9 6 3

West	North	East	South
Jack	William	Phillip	Harry
Pass	3 ♣	Pass	3 ♥
Pass	4 ♥	(All pass)

Wow! Some three club opening! I don't care for our chances of beating this. If partner has the spade king, he has at most one other prime card. Declarer ruffs with the deuce of hearts. I'd like to encourage with the ten, but I'm not sure I can afford that card, so I settle for playing the seven.

I expect declarer to come to his hand and ruff another spade. Instead, he leads the nine of hearts--ace--three--five. As usual, when declarer does something unexpected, it's time to stop and figure out what is going on.

It's hard to see how playing a heart immediately is superior to ruffing a spade first. So declarer must have no way to reach his hand safely. He must be missing the diamond king and doesn't want to play a club to his hand for fear of establishing a defensive ruff.

Let's construct some hands where declarer is missing the diamond king and see if we have any chance to beat this:

♠ J x x ♥ K Q 8 x x ♦ Q x ♣ A Q x

If I tap dummy with a spade, I promote partner's ten of hearts. But so what? We have only three tricks. Perhaps it's better to lead a club, killing declarer's hand entry. Now declarer can't afford to ruff a spade, nor can he afford to play a low heart to dummy's jack. In either case, if he tries to return to his hand with a club, partner can ruff and put me in with the spade queen for a second ruff. But that's not how declarer would play. He would win the club in his hand and take a diamond finesse. Even if the finesse loses, the defense can manage only one more trick.

In order to beat this, I need to give declarer more spade losers. How about this hand?

♠ J x x x ♥ K Q 8 x x ♦ Q ♣ A Q x

Say I tap dummy, promoting partner's heart ten. Declarer comes to his hand in clubs, cashes his high trumps and discovers the bad trump break. He can take a diamond finesse, but he can't get to dummy to cash the ace. So, on this layout, a spade shift beats him. And it's necessary. After any other return, declarer makes six. Of course, playing trumps at trick two was a pretty poor way to attack this hand. A low diamond to the queen would have been a better idea. But at least I've found some layout where we have a shot to beat this, even if I need declarer to have misplayed it. When I first saw dummy, I didn't think that was possible.

I play the spade ten--six--deuce--heart jack. Declarer plays a club to his hand, draws trump, and claims.

	NORTH William ♠ -- ♥ J 9 2 ♦ A J 10 5 ♣ K J 10 8 7 4
WEST Jack ♠ A K 8 3 2 ♥ 7 6 5 ♦ K 9 6 ♣ 5 2		EAST Phillip ♠ Q 10 9 7 4 ♥ A ♦ 8 7 4 2 ♣ 9 6 3
	SOUTH Harry ♠ J 6 5 ♥ K Q 10 8 4 3 ♦ Q 3 ♣ A Q

West	North	East	South
Jack	William	Phillip	Harry
Pass	3 ♣	Pass	3 ♥
Pass	4 ♥	(All pass)

It's nice to see I was right about the diamond king. Note how drawing that inference cut down on the work I had to do. If I had to worry about the possibility of partner's having the heart king or the club ace, I would still be constructing deals. Asking "What is going on?" must always take precedence over asking "What should I do?" Not that inferences like this are always correct. Sometimes you overlook something; sometimes declarer just misplays the hand. But if you draw a reasonable inference that turns out to be wrong and let a contract make as a result, at least you have an interesting story to tell.

Do the opponents belong in a slam? Six clubs looks slightly better than six hearts. It essentially needs the heart ace to be singleton or doubleton with some extra chances if you happen to get a diamond lead. But it's hard to see how to get there even after a more sensible one club opening. Not that you mind missing a slam this marginal.

The board is yet another push. Now I'm worried. We are still down ten imps and now have only three boards to go.

Table 1: -480
Table 2: +480

Result on Board 5: 0 imps
Total: -10 imps

Event 3 - Match 4 - Board 4

Board 4
Both sides vulnerable

♠ Q 10 8 7 6 ♥ K ♦ A 7 5 2 ♣ Q 10 7

Three passes to me. I have less defense than normal for a fourth-seat opening bid. But it seems weird to pass out a hand with five spades if it's even close. So I open one spade.

LHO passes. Partner raises to four spades. Now I'm glad I opened. I seem to have caught a good fit. Everyone passes, and LHO leads the ace of clubs.

	NORTH Jack ♠ K 5 3 ♥ A J 4 3 ♦ K 10 8 6 ♣ 9 3
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ Q 10 8 7 6 ♥ K ♦ A 7 5 2 ♣ Q 10 7

West	North	East	South
Harry	Jack	William	Phillip
Pass	Pass	Pass	1 ♠
Pass	4 ♠	(All pass)

Oh, come on, partner. There is no passed hand that can raise one spade to four with only three trumps. To make this I need to pick up the trumps and avoid a diamond loser. To avoid the diamond loser, I need a favorable lie of the diamond suit or the heart queen ruffing out or a red-suit squeeze.

East plays the club five, and I play the seven. West continues with the club king, and East plays the six, and I play the ten. Apparently the five was East's lowest club, so West has the four and the deuce. He might have the spade ace. But, if he does, he must have at least three spades. If he has two short suits, he would have opened with ace-king-ace. And if spades is his only short suit, he would have doubled one spade.

West shifts to the four of diamonds. There goes the red-suit squeeze. West can't know enough about the deal to be playing a diamond for that reason, though. So why is he playing a diamond? If he had the spade ace, a heart shift, trying to set up his partner's king, would make more sense. (I'm not saying it's the correct defense. Just that it would make sense, which, as declarer, is all I care about.) The most logical reason for playing a diamond is that West is trying for two side-suit tricks rather than just one, which means he can't have the spade ace. He is playing me for something like.

♠ A Q x x x ♥ K Q x ♦ x x ♣ Q 10 x

I play the six, East plays the jack, and I win with the ace. East could be falsecarding with queen-jack-nine. But if he is, I'm down. So I have to hope that's not the case. Could West have shifted from queen-nine third or fourth of diamonds? Maybe. It would be right if I had the above hand. But that's an awfully unattractive shift with king-ten-eight fourth in dummy. I have seen Jack shift to middle from three small before. So it's also possible he has nine third, giving East queen-jack tight. If I had to commit myself right now, that's what I would guess.

What's my best play in spades? There is no need to worry about four-one breaks just yet. I'll start by finding the play that picks up the most three-two breaks. Only if there is a tie I will need to consider four-one breaks.

The three-two breaks I need to worry about are

(1) ♠ x x		♠ A J x
(2) ♠ J x		♠ A x x
(3) ♠ J x x		♠ A x

(I'll ignore ace-jack doubleton on my right, since any sensible play works in that case.) Since there are three ways to arrange the spot cards in each of these layouts, each case is equally likely, which simplifies the analysis.

Possible ways to play the suit include: (A) Low to the king, then finesse the ten. (B) Low to the king, then low to the queen. (C) Low to the queen, then low toward dummy, ducking if the jack does not appear. (A) picks up case (1), (B) picks up case (2), and (C) picks up both case (2) and case (3). (C) is the clear winner. Since I do have the spade eight, there are some weird intra-finesse lines available as well, but I needn't concern myself with them. Nothing is going to pick up all three cases, so I can't improve on (C).

How should I reach dummy? I'd just as soon postpone my decision in diamonds. I don't need two heart tricks, and I no longer have the communication to score three heart tricks even if the queen is ruffing out. So I might as well overtake my heart king. I play the king of hearts--five--ace--deuce.

I play the spade three. East plays the ace--six--four. That doesn't look good. That looks like a stiff ace. East tries to cash the heart queen. Now there's an optimist for you! I ruff with the seven, and West follows with the six of hearts.

I play the spade eight--jack--king--deuce. Yay! I could get an accurate count in hearts by cashing the heart jack and ruffing a heart. But West's spade jack could be a falsecard. I'm not sure how count in hearts would help, since I don't have count in clubs, so it doesn't seem worth the risk. I play a spade to my queen. East follows with the nine, and West discards the club deuce. On the last spade, West pitches the three of diamonds. I pitch the diamond eight from dummy, and East pitches the club eight. Now the club queen--four--heart four--club jack. We are down to this position:

	NORTH Jack ♠ -- ♥ J ♦ K 10 ♣ --
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ -- ♥ -- ♦ 7 5 2 ♣ --

The moment of truth. I play a diamond, and West plays the nine. Either he is 2-3-4-4 and switched to the four of diamonds from queen-nine-four-three or he is 2-4-3-4 and played middle from nine-four-three.

Against a human, I would go up with the king with no hesitation. People just don't shift from queen-nine fourth with king-ten-eight fourth in the dummy. But computers don't have such prejudices. If Jack thinks it is the right play, he'll do it. He doesn't care how foolish it looks when it fails. And it certainly could be the right play. There is no reason I couldn't have the hand I mentioned earlier.

Often, when trying to decide between two hands a defender might hold, you can gain some insight by switching your focus to the defender's partner. Perhaps he did something to give the show away. East did do something very peculiar in hopping with the spade ace from ace-nine third and trying to cash the heart queen. He must have had some reason for this play, since, if his partner held jack-ten doubleton of spades, hopping with the spade ace would hand me the contract. Of course the play was foolish, since it's impossible for me to have a small heart. But remember Jack draws no conclusions from declarer's line of play.

Let's sit in the East seat and try to think like a computer for a moment. Let's imagine we think the heart queen might be cashing. Even so, what's the hurry? Can't we afford to duck the trump ace? We can if we had a singleton diamond. But perhaps not if we have queen-jack doubleton. Say declarer began with ace-nine doubleton of diamonds. We duck the spade ace, declarer wins in his hand and plays a diamond to the king, dropping our queen. He then plays the ten of diamonds. We must ruff low. Declarer overruffs, ruffs a club to dummy, and plays the eight of diamonds, pitching his heart loser as we ruff with the spade ace.

Yes, I know this makes no sense at all to us. But it makes sense to a computer with no ability to draw inferences. East would not rise with the spade ace unless there were a hand where ducking would allow me to score the contract. And that can only be true if he has queen-jack doubleton of diamonds.

I rise with the diamond king, and East follows with the queen. Making four.

	NORTH Jack ♠ K 5 3 ♥ A J 4 3 ♦ K 10 8 6 ♣ 9 3
WEST Harry ♠ J 4 ♥ 10 7 6 5 ♦ 9 4 3 ♣ A K 4 2		EAST William ♠ A 9 2 ♥ Q 9 8 2 ♦ Q J ♣ J 8 6 5
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ Q 10 8 7 6 ♥ K ♦ A 7 5 2 ♣ Q 10 7

I'm rather happy with this result. The other table might not reach game and might well go down if they do. It is quite a disappointment, therefore, to discover that this board is a push. We are still down ten imps with only four boards to go. It's hard to make any headway in this match.

Table 1: +620
Table 2: -620

Result on Board 4: 0 imps
Total: -10 imps

Event 3 - Match 4 - Board 3

Board 3
Opponents vulnerable

♠ Q ♥ K 6 ♦ A Q 5 4 2 ♣ A Q 9 5 2

I open one diamond, LHO bids one spade, partner bids two hearts, and RHO bids three spades (pre-emptive). I could bid four hearts. But if partner has a good fit in one of the minors, we may belong in a slam, so it must be worthwhile to look for a minor-suit fit by bidding four clubs.

If LHO bids four spades, four clubs will certainly work out better than four hearts, since partner won't be misled into thinking we have a good heart fit. If we don't have a fit in either minor, we probably don't want to compete at the five-level.

If LHO doesn't bid four spades, a four heart bid might work out better, but not necessarily. Occasionally, we might wind up in five clubs instead of four hearts. But, if we do, who's to say five clubs isn't a better spot? If partner wants to hear about a doubleton heart honor, he can always give a false preference to four diamonds provided he has at least two. And if he has a singleton diamond, he rates to have good club support or a six-card heart suit to rebid. Only if he is 4-5-1-3 will he have a serious problem. And that is unlikely on the opponents' auction.

I bid four clubs, LHO passes, and partner raises to five. For us to make a slam, partner needs an ace and the kings of both my suits. Would he have cue-bid four spades with that? I hope so. But if he thinks four spades promises a spade control, he might not. I don't think it should promise a spade control, since four spades is his only way to make a slam try in clubs. But I'm sure not everyone agrees. In any event, I can hardly play him for three key cards, so I pass. LHO leads the ace of spades.

	NORTH Jack ♠ 6 4 ♥ A Q 9 8 5 ♦ K 8 ♣ J 8 7 6
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ Q ♥ K 6 ♦ A Q 5 4 2 ♣ A Q 9 5 2

West	North	East	South
Harry	Jack	William	Phillip
			1 ♦
1 ♠	2 ♥	3 ♠	4 ♣
Pass	5 ♣	(All pass)

East plays the spade nine. West continues with the spade ten, which I ruff with the club five.

As long as clubs are at worst three-one, I have no problems. I can play ace and a club to score four clubs tricks and six red-suit tricks. I can then ruff a red suit in either hand for my eleventh trick. What if clubs are four-zero? I may have difficulty scoring a ruff, but I probably don't need to. If someone has four clubs and neither red suit is splitting three-three, then the hand with the club void rates to be squeezed in the red suits. There are some cases where that's not true. But in all those cases, it seems the opponents would have been bidding beyond three spades. (For example, if East is 4-1-4-4 and West is 6-5-2-0, then there is no squeeze. But it's hard to imagine the opponents' being so timid if that's the case.)

I cash the club ace--three--six--ten, then play the club deuce--four--seven--spade three. I claim five.

	NORTH Jack ♠ 6 4 ♥ A Q 9 8 5 ♦ K 8 ♣ J 8 7 6
WEST Harry ♠ A 10 8 7 5 ♥ J 7 4 ♦ 9 3 ♣ K 4 3		EAST William ♠ K J 9 3 2 ♥ 10 3 2 ♦ J 10 7 6 ♣ 10
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ Q ♥ K 6 ♦ A Q 5 4 2 ♣ A Q 9 5 2

East might have applied a little more pressure. To be content with three spades, he must have seen his partner's overcalls before. I would have bid four spades over two hearts despite the vulnerability. The singleton club suggests opener has a club suit he's just itching to bid. So even if it's wrong for us to bid four spades, opener may have a hard time punishing us. It would, of course, be foolish to bid three spades, then compete to four spades over four hearts, since that makes it easy for the opponents to defend when it's right. I hope that's not what East was intending to do. If so, then I regret not bidding four hearts.

Our teammates did play four spades doubled, though I don't know how they got there. This should have gone for 800. Fortunately, the defense dropped a trick (which seems to be rule against spade games at the other table), so we lost only three imps. I can't even guess how the trick disappeared this time. South will surely switch to the king of hearts as soon as he gains the lead. What bad can happen after that?


Table 1: +400
Table 2: -500

Result on Board 3: -3 imps
Total: -10 imps