BBO Daylong Tournament 1 - Apr 7, 2021 - Board 8

Board 8
Neither vulnerable

♠ 6 5 2  ♥ A Q 9 3  ♦ K Q 8  ♣ A K 3

Three passes to me. I open one club, partner bids one spade, and I bid two notrump. Partner bids three clubs, natural and forcing. With such good red-suit holdings, I see no reason to suggest a spade contract. I bid three notrump, which ends the auction.

	NORTH Robot ♠ K J 10 8 ♥ K J ♦ 10 4 ♣ 9 8 7 6 4
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ 6 5 2 ♥ A Q 9 3 ♦ K Q 8 ♣ A K 3

West	North	East	South
Robot	Robot	Robot	Phillip
Pass	Pass	Pass	1 ♣
Pass	1 ♠	Pass	2 NT
Pass	3 ♣	Pass	3 NT
(All pass)

West leads the four of hearts. I have six top tricks and a diamond trick for seven. I need to develop two more. If the diamond ace is offside, the defense may be able to establish enough tricks to beat me once I give up the lead, so I would like to develop my two tricks without having to give up the lead twice. One possibility is to play for three-two clubs. Another is to play for the spade queen onside. 

Three-two clubs is more likely, but the heart blockage makes going after clubs awkward. Say I play three rounds of clubs and they knock out my diamond stopper. I now have nine tricks, but, unless the heart ten drops in three rounds, I have no way to take them. In fact, even if the diamond ace is onside, I could go down. Say they win the club and play ace and a diamond. I now have ten tricks, but it's not clear I can take even nine. I can't use the heart entry to get to dummy's clubs, else I have no way to get back to my hand. I have to try to reach dummy with a spade. If I misguess the suit, they can set up their diamonds.

Playing on spades is more promising. Say I play a club to my hand and a spade to the ten. If it loses to the ace, I have four hearts, two spades (assuming the East isn't being tricky with the ace-queen), two clubs, and a diamond. If the spade finesse loses to the queen, I will probably need to find the diamond ace onside. But if it is, I'm in good shape. I have four hearts, one spade, two clubs, two diamonds, and no entry problems. I'm not necessarily home-free, however. If they can set up two club tricks, they might be able to take five tricks before I can take nine.

What if I lead a spade to the ten and it holds? If I judge the spade queen is onside, I can unblock the hearts, play a club to my hand, and play a spade to the jack: four hearts, two spades, a diamond, and two clubs.

If I judge RHO might duck with the spade queen (or win with the ace holding ace-queen), this deal becomes more difficult. One possibility would be to forget the second spade finesse and go after clubs. Now that I have a spade trick, I will need only three heart tricks, so I can afford to overtake dummy's heart jack if necessary.

The bots aren't up to making deceptive plays for the purpose of deception, but they might stumble into them. If they think it makes no difference what they do, they might choose the deceptive play at random among apparently irrelevant choices. So, while they are less likely to make deceptive plays than an expert, they are probably more likely to make them than an average player, since they have no pre-conceptions about what's normal. In any event, there is no need to worry about that yet. If the spade ten holds or if it loses to the ace, I'll think about what to do then. It's clear attacking spades offers better chances than attacking clubs. That's all I need to know for now.

I win trick one with the heart king as East plays the deuce and I play the three. Both opponents have played their lowest heart. Now four of clubs from dummy--jack from East. The proper card to win with is the king. I probably wouldn't be playing this way with just the ace, so the ace advertises I have the king. If I play the king, the opponent without the queen may think I have king-queen instead of ace-king. West follows with the five. I haven't seen the deuce.

I play the spade five--ace--eight--nine. Well! That eliminates a lot of problematic variations. West continues with the space four. I doubt he is doing this with ace fourth, so it doesn't hurt to finesse. East wins with the queen, and I play the deuce. I now have eight tricks. A diamond will make nine, so my contract is safe. East shifts to the diamond three--queen--ace--four. West continues with the jack of diamonds, which suggests he has the nine. East follows with the five. Is there any chance for a tenth trick? Here is the current position: 

	NORTH Robot ♠ K J ♥ J ♦ -- ♣ 9 8 7 6
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ 6 ♥ A Q 9 ♦ 8 ♣ A 3

If the club jack was a singleton or doubleton, then West guards both minors. I don't have entries necessary for a squeeze. Can I persuade him to hold the wrong minor at trick thirteen? I'm going to cash the spades, pitching a minor-suit loser, then cash the heart jack and play a club to my ace to finish the hearts. If East shows out when I play a club to the ace, West will have a complete count and will know which minor to hold. So my only chance is that East holds a doubleton club. If he does, and I've pitched my club, then West will again have a complete count when I play a club to the ace. So my only chance is to discard my diamond. I play accordingly. It turns out East did have a singleton club, so I had no chance. Making three.

	NORTH Robot ♠ K J 10 8 ♥ K J ♦ 10 4 ♣ 9 8 7 6 4
WEST Robot ♠ A 4 ♥ 10 7 4 ♦ A J 9 2 ♣ Q 10 5 2		EAST Robot ♠ Q 9 7 3 ♥ 8 6 5 2 ♦ 7 6 5 3 ♣ J
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ 6 5 2 ♥ A Q 9 3 ♦ K Q 8 ♣ A K 3

It occurs to me afterwards that I opened the bidding one club, so West knew I didn't have a doubleton and could never go wrong. At least he knew that in theory. I'm sure he's seen some of these clowns open their shorter minor and rebid 2NT. But I don't think these programs are heuristic, so he probably doesn't remember.

Plus 400 was again a better board than I would expect: 81.2%. Most declarers went down in three notrump by attacking clubs instead of spades.

My final score was 77.3%, finishing fourth out of 1011. A respectable showing, despite the fact I took none of the bizarre, swingy actions we saw from some of the other players. Nor, for that matter, did I do anything brilliant. If you go back and look at the results, the best boards were largely the result of mistakes made by the opponents. But we all had the same opponents. If my opponents made more mistakes than those at the other tables, it is because I gave them more opportunities to do so. Boards 1 and 6 are prime examples.

As we saw, some try to win by making bizarre decisions and hoping they work out. I don't think that's the winning strategy. My strategy is twofold: (1) Try to avoid making mistakes myself. (2) Give the opponents the opportunity to make mistakes as often as possible.

While it's true this strategy didn't quite translate into a win, it might have. All I had to do was to play a little bit tougher. If I had led and continued a diamond on Board 4, we might have beaten four spades, which would have been enough to nudge me into first place.

BBO Daylong Tournament 1 - Apr 7, 2021 - Board 7

Board 7
Both vulnerable

♠ J 9 8  ♥ A K Q  ♦ 8  ♣ A K 9 8 7 3

I open one club in first seat and partner responds one heart. Five club tricks and three heart tricks make eight. Seven and a half to eight tricks is worth a jump rebid, so I bid three clubs.

Partner bids three diamonds. If I were sure partner had five hearts, I would consider four hearts as a picture bid. But he could be probing for three notrump, so I bid a mere three hearts. Partner bids four diamonds. I'm not entirely sure what partner would do with four hearts and longer diamonds, but the tooltip confirms this shows five hearts, the diamond ace, and slam interest. Nice to know for sure what partner's bids mean.

Any time partner makes a slam try and you hold ace-king-queen of trumps, it's up to you whether to bid it or not. Partner isn't going to be accepting any invitations. So bidding five clubs or five hearts--whichever bid you think announces you are looking for a spade control--is pointless. You can't command partner to bid slam with a spade control, because you are limited and partner is captain. Partner might reasonably decide you would make the same try holding the club queen instead of the heart queen. It is almost inconceivable that partner is making a slam move missing ace-king-queen of hearts, ace-king of clubs, and a spade control, so you should just drive to slam. If this hand isn't good enough, partner shouldn't be inviting. 

Accordingly, I bid Blackwood and bid six hearts over partner's five diamonds.

	NORTH Phillip ♠ J 9 8 ♥ A K Q ♦ 8 ♣ A K 9 8 7 3
	SOUTH Robot ♠ K Q 6 ♥ J 9 7 3 2 ♦ A K 5 3 ♣ 6

West	North	East	South
Robot	Phillip	Robot	Robot
	1 ♣	Pass	1 ♥
Pass	3 ♣	Pass	3 ♦
Pass	3 ♥	Pass	4 ♦
Pass	4 NT	Pass	5 ♦
Pass	6 ♥	(All pass)

Partner's auction was quite aggressive. With jack fifth of hearts and a misfit for clubs, I wouldn't have been thinking about slam. Over three clubs, I would have simply bid three notrump. But slam is good, so I can't complain.

West leads the spade ace. I have eleven tricks if nothing bad happens. Where is the twelfth coming from? If I ruff a diamond in dummy, I will need three-two trumps (or a stiff ten). If I ruff out clubs, I will also need three-two trumps unless clubs are three-three. Perhaps I can try both. Suppose I cash the ace-king of trumps. If they split, I go after a diamond ruff: Diamond to the ace. Ruff. Club ace. Club ruff to my hand. Finish drawing trump. Now I need to get to dummy to cash the club king, so I will need the spade jack as an entry. If trumps don't split, I play for three-three clubs: Cash the heart queen. Ace and ruff a club. Cash the last trump and, again, get to dummy with the spade jack. Actually, I might not need clubs to split. If the defense doesn't shift to diamonds at trick two and someone is 2-1-6-4, he's squeezed on the spade. 

Both lines require a late spade entry to dummy. So, when East follows to trick one with the three, I drop the queen. West continues with the spade seven--nine--five--king. I cash two trumps. Everyone follows, with West playing the ten on the second round. That means I can afford to ruff the club high when the time comes.  Diamond to the ace. Ruff a diamond. Club ace. When this doesn't get ruffed, I claim.

	NORTH Phillip ♠ J 9 8 ♥ A K Q ♦ 8 ♣ A K 9 8 7 3
WEST Robot ♠ A 10 7 4 2 ♥ 10 5 ♦ Q 10 9 ♣ 10 4 2		EAST Robot ♠ 5 3 ♥ 8 6 4 ♦ J 7 6 4 2 ♣ Q J 5
	SOUTH Robot ♠ K Q 6 ♥ J 9 7 3 2 ♦ A K 5 3 ♣ 6

95%. Another generous reward. Only two other pairs reached six hearts. Four other pairs had auctions that began the same way. Three players showed considerable pessimism by signing off in four hearts over four diamonds. Another tried to be scientific about it. He bid five clubs. When his partner bid five diamonds, he bid five hearts. He might just as well have signed off in four hearts like the pessimists. As I said earlier, there is no way partner is bidding on missing the three top trump honors. 

A few players tried their customary cute tricks with auctions like:

North	South
1 NT	2 ♦
2 ♥	3 ♦
3 NT	Pass

Hard to find six hearts that way. Someone should tell these guys you don't have to try so hard. Sometimes you can score 95% with a normal, straightforward auction simply by exercising halfway decent judgment at the critical juncture.

BBO Daylong Tournament 1 - Apr 7, 2021 - Board 6

Board 6
Opponents vulnerable

♠ K J 7  ♥ J 8 7 4  ♦ K 7  ♣ Q J 9 4

RHO opens one diamond. I double. LHO bids one spade. Partner bids three clubs. That seems quite high enough to me, and the opponents agree.

	NORTH Phillip ♠ K J 7 ♥ J 8 7 4 ♦ K 7 ♣ Q J 9 4
	SOUTH Robot ♠ Q 9 2 ♥ 3 2 ♦ 10 9 3 2 ♣ A K 6 5

West	North	East	South
Robot	Phillip	Robot	Robot
1 ♦	Double	1 ♠	3 ♣
(All pass)

Glad to see partner isn't worried I'm one of those people who double one diamond without club support.

West leads the spade eight. This doesn't look promising. If trumps are three-two, then I can take four clubs, one ruff, two spades, and hopefully the diamond king. That's only eight tricks. If I go after ruffs before drawing trump, West will score a spade ruff.

What do I know about the high cards? East probably has the heart king, since West didn't lead one. He also has the spade ace. If he has the diamond ace as well, he might not have sold to three clubs undoubled. In addition, that would leave West with only 10 HCP. It seems likely the diamond ace is onside. 

I'm still not sure how I'm coming to nine tricks. But I might as well start by playing the spade jack to induce East to take his ace. He does. I play the deuce from my hand to leave open the possibility the West began with Q98 of spades. A careless falsecard of the nine would clarify the suit. At trick two, East shifts to the king of hearts. So East has ace of spades and king-queen of hearts. That leaves West with the heart ace and ace-queen-jack of diamonds. I play the deuce; West follows with the six. The five is still outstanding. East now leads the diamond eight.

This is a pretty friendly defense. Can I make this now? I need to score six trumps tricks without allowing the opponents to score a spade ruff. West will take his diamond ace and exit with his last spade. If I play a heart without drawing trumps, West will get a spade ruff. Perhaps I can draw two rounds of trumps, then play a heart, hoping West is out of trumps. That gives him 2452. No, that doesn't work. East will just win and play a third trump. But West will be under pressure, since he guards both red suits. Is there any way I can squeeze him? I don't have the entries for a traditional squeeze. But this looks like one of those entry-shifting matrices. Say I draw two rounds of trumps, cash the last spade, cash the diamond king, then play a heart. This will be the position with East on play:

	NORTH Phillip ♠ -- ♥ J 8 ♦ -- ♣ ? ?
	SOUTH Robot ♠ -- ♥ -- ♦ 10 9 ♣ ? ?

West holds two cards in each red suit. East must play a trump to stop the crossruff. If West pitches a heart, I win in dummy, ruff a heart, and dummy is high. If he pitches a diamond, I win in my hand, ruff a diamond, and my hand is high. What trumps do I keep to make it possible to choose which hand wins the trick? I need to hold 65 in my hand and honor-four in the dummy, and East's remaining trump must be the 2 or 3. That means I need to induce East to squander his club spots. Can I do that? Say he has 1032 of trumps. Maybe if I lead the 9 from dummy on the first round of clubs, he will think of some reason to cover.

I play the diamond deuce. West takes the ace and, surprisingly, does not play a spade. Instead, he cashes the heart ace, and East follows with the ten. Could the spade lead have been a singleton? West continues with the heart five. I see. West thought his partner had king doubleton of hearts. If that's the case, continuing spades would not work. He would need to give him a heart ruff instead. I play low; East plays the queen and I ruff. Now I don't need a second ruff. The heart jack is my ninth trick. I cash the club ace. When everyone follows, I claim.

	NORTH Phillip ♠ K J 7 ♥ J 8 7 4 ♦ K 7 ♣ Q J 9 4
WEST Robot ♠ 8 3 ♥ A 9 6 5 ♦ A Q J 6 5 ♣ 7 2		EAST Robot ♠ A 10 6 5 4 ♥ K Q 10 ♦ 8 4 ♣ 10 8 3
	SOUTH Robot ♠ Q 9 2 ♥ 3 2 ♦ 10 9 3 2 ♣ A K 6 5

East had 1083 of clubs. So if West had continued spades, I would have gone down unless East chose to play both his high clubs on the first two club tricks.

Thinking about this hand later, I revisited my thought "Maybe if I lead the 9 from dummy on the first round of clubs, he will think of some reason to cover [if he has 1032]." Is there a reason to cover? Here is the putative position at the point I lead the nine of clubs from dummy:

	NORTH Phillip ♠ 7 ♥ J 8 7 ♦ K ♣ Q J 9 4
WEST Robot ♠ -- ♥ A 9 5 ♦ Q J 6 5 ♣ 8 7		EAST Robot ♠ 10 6 5 ♥ Q 10 ♦ 4 ♣ 10 3 2
	SOUTH Robot ♠ Q ♥ 3 ♦ 10 9 3 ♣ A K 6 5

Indeed there is a reason to cover. If East doesn't cover the nine, I'm cold. I let the nine ride. Now I have two high trumps in dummy with which to ruff diamonds: king of diamonds, club to my ace, diamond ruff, spade to my queen, diamond ruff. If he doesn't cover, I can ruff two diamonds. If he does, I have an entry-shifting squeeze. Actually, I don't even need the squeeze, do I? If he covers, I can again just ruff two diamonds high, since the club six in my hand is good enough to draw the third round of trumps. (And if it wasn't, the squeeze wouldn't work anyway.)

But hold on. If I can make this contract by ruffing two diamonds high, maybe that's what I should be aiming for in the first place instead of looking for obscure squeezes. Why not just cash the diamond king, then play queen of clubs and a club to my ace. If West began with ten doubleton of clubs, then dummy's jack and nine are high and I can ruff two diamonds. Since this line works whenever West has ten doubleton of clubs and floating the nine works only when East has specifically 1032, this line is clearly better. Why didn't I see that at the time?

I think the problem is I was thinking about this hand as a crossruff. I need to duck a heart to set up the crossruff, so any line that didn't involve ducking a heart wasn't on my radar. Computers have an advantage over us in that they can simply try every possible line. We can't think fast enough to do that, so we play by identifying patterns: "This deal looks like a crossruff; this one looks like a dummy reversal; this looks like one of the deals where you have to do such-and-such." We have to think this way, but we run into problems when we apply the wrong pattern. When that happens, it is important to step back and ask yourself where your thinking went wrong. 

Why doesn't this hand fit the crossruff pattern? The reason to embark on a crossruff is insufficient entries. You need to score ruffs in your hand in order to ruff things in dummy. But entries aren't an issue here. I can use a club entry to ruff one diamond and a spade entry to ruff another. So there is no reason to duck a heart. Having discovered the "bug" in my thinking, perhaps I won't have this blind spot the next time.

That was disconcerting, though. Imagine having to explain to your teammates how you went down two in a cold contract by leading the nine from QJ9x opposite AKxx and passing it, letting West score his ten, followed by a spade ruff.

I score 97.8% for plus 110. That seems generous. I did nothing good; the opponents misdefended. And everyone has the same opponents, so this result shouldn't be that uncommon.

Why was it uncommon? For starters, not everyone doubled one diamond. Those who didn't usually wound up defending three diamonds, down one. Passing over one diamond is conservative. At this vulnerability, I would double with a little less. 

Of the eleven pairs who did double and reached three clubs, ten went down. Most declarers played a low spade from dummy at trick one, which is an error. You want East to win the ace to cut communication. Playing low makes it easy for him to insert the ten, which makes it easy for West to score his spade ruff later. 

The players who did play the jack at trick one fell from grace by falsecarding the nine from their hand, clarifying the suit for East. Accurate falsecarding isn't just a matter of playing gratuitous high cards. You need to consider the situation from your opponent's point of view and figure out how to create an ambiguity. The easiest way to do that is to ask yourself what cards you should retain rather than what card you should play. In this case, from East's point of view, West's eight could be from a singleton, eight doubleton, or Q98. You need to hold on to the cards you want East to think his partner might have, so you must retain your nine.

So it turns out I did do something good after all. Although 97.8% still seems like an excessive reward.

BBO Daylong Tournament 1 - Apr 7, 2021 - Board 5

Board 5
Our side vulnerable

♠ A K Q 6  ♥ J 10 8  ♦ Q J 7 4 2  ♣ 6

Partner passes, and RHO opens one club. Double seems routine. I'm not good enough to bid one diamond and double later. I'm sure some will overcall one spade, but I think that would be a mistake. There is nothing about this hand that suggests a 4-3 spade fit will play well. I may have a spade loser that I could avoid in other contracts. And my long suit has top losers, not slow losers, suggesting there is little to gain by ruffing the suit in dummy. A hand with AQJ10 of spades and Axxxx of diamonds would be a different story. With this hand, if partner can't bid spades after a take-out double, we probably don't belong there.

I double. LHO bids one diamond. Partner passes, and RHO bids one heart. I pass, and LHO bids one notrump, which is passed around to me. My long suit is stacked behind me, and partner could have bid spades at the one-level yet chose not to. This hand doesn't appear to have much future on offense. I pass, and partner leads the spade three.

	NORTH Robot ♠ J 10 8 7 ♥ A K 7 2 ♦ 8 ♣ K J 10 2
		EAST Phillip ♠ A K Q 6 ♥ J 10 8 ♦ Q J 7 4 2 ♣ 6

West	North	East	South
Robot	Robot	Phillip	Robot
Pass	1 ♣	Double	1 ♦
Pass	1 ♥	Pass	1 NT
(All pass)

Declarer plays the jack, I win with the queen, and declarer follows with the five. I haven't seen the deuce, so partner's lead could be from 32 doubleton or from 943. 

Partner and declarer have 15 HCP between them. Declarer is limited to ten, so partner has at least five, which means he probably would have bid one heart over one diamond if he had four of them. So hearts aren't a source of tricks for us. Diamonds, on the other hand, might be. Give declarer something like

♠ x x  ♥ Q x x  ♦ A 10 9 x x  ♣ Q x x

On a heart return, he can take eight tricks. A diamond switch will hold him to seven. And if his diamonds are a little worse than that, say, A9xxx, we can actually beat this contract.

I switch to the deuce of diamonds. (I know partner pays no attention to my carding. But in the middle of the hand, you should lead lowest, not fourth best, when you want the suit returned.) Declarer plays the ace; partner, the five. Declarer would probably duck this trick with just the ace, so I suspect he has the king as well. Declarer plays the club three, and partner hops with the ace. Declarer plays the ten from dummy. This suggests declarer has the nine-eight in his hand and is unblocking so he can repeat a finesse against the queen. It also suggest he has the heart queen, since he seems to think there is some way he is getting to his hand, both to finesse against the club queen and to cash his stranded diamond king. That last inference is less certain though. If he doesn't have the heart queen, he doesn't appear to have many good options.

Partner shifts to the heart six--deuce--ten--queen. Declarer leads the club eight--seven--deuce. It indeed appears declarer began with 983 of clubs. Here is the current position, with me still to play:

	NORTH Robot ♠ 10 8 7 ♥ A K 7 ♦ -- ♣ K J
		EAST Phillip ♠ A K 6 ♥ J 8 ♦ Q J 7 4 ♣ --

If I'm right that partner would have bid one heart with four, then declarer has six of the last eight tricks--two clubs, three hearts, and the diamond king. But he doesn't know the heart seven is a winner. Is there any way to convince him to pitch a heart on the diamond king and go after a spade trick? The only way that line of play makes any sense is if I pitch a diamond now and he believes I started with three. Otherwise, I will have diamonds to cash when he knocks out my spade honors. I doubt that will work; but if I pitch either major, he can't possibly go wrong. He knows I began with at least three diamonds.

I pitch the diamond four. Declarer cashes the diamond king. Partner follows with the ten, and declarer pitches the spade seven from dummy. Oh, well. Declarer repeats the club finesse, and I take the last two tricks. Making three. 

	NORTH Robot ♠ J 10 8 7 ♥ A K 7 2 ♦ 8 ♣ K J 10 2
WEST Robot ♠ 9 4 3 ♥ 9 6 4 ♦ 10 5 ♣ A Q 7 5 4		EAST Phillip ♠ A K Q 6 ♥ J 10 8 ♦ Q J 7 4 2 ♣ 6
	SOUTH Robot ♠ 5 2 ♥ Q 5 3 ♦ A K 9 6 3 ♣ 9 8 3

Hopping with the club ace, was an error. Partner should just duck, letting declarer win in dummy. Declarer can't get back to his hand twice. One way or another, the defense will come to five tricks. Frankly that doesn't seem all that difficult a play to find.

Minus 150 was, thankfully, above average: 57.4%. Quite a few players overcalled with one diamond, then, when LHO bid 1NT, balanced with a double, which partner passed. The hand is not good enough for that auction. Overcalling might make sense if you switched diamonds with one of the majors. But the fifth diamond is probably not that important. Better to get all three unbid suits into the auction with one call, then leave any further bidding up to partner.

Three pairs held declarer to eight tricks. They shifted to the diamond queen at trick two. Somehow, this seems to have startled declarer, who then forgot to unblock the ten of clubs when West hopped with the ace. It's weird how seemingly irrelevant choices of plays can have a butterfly effect on the bots' thinking. Why declarer sees the need to unblock when you lead a low diamond but not when you lead the queen escapes me.

BBO Daylong Tournament 1 - Apr 7, 2021 - Board 4

Board 4
Both vulnerable

♠ 6 4 2  ♥ Q 8  ♦ A Q 8  ♣ A Q 9 8 6

One heart--pass--one spade to me. It's dangerous to overcall at the two level with a balanced hand and a moderate five-card suit. But it's also dangerous to pass with a sound opening bid in high cards. Partner could easily have an opening bid with some heart length and have been unable to act over one heart. If he does and I pass, we could miss a vulnerable three notrump. I would not overcall with the majors reversed, since, with three hearts, the chance that partner was stymied with a decent hand is reduced. Perhaps I shouldn't overcall with this hand either. But the fact that this is a best-hand tournament, so LHO can't have more HCP than I do, tips the scales. I bid two clubs.

LHO bids two spades, promising four. RHO bids three hearts, and LHO bids four spades.

Queen doubleton of hearts calls for an aggressive lead. Whatever minor-suit tricks we have might disappear if we don't cash them. Leading from an ace-queen third suit seems too aggressive, so I try the club ace.

	NORTH Robot ♠ A J 9 8 ♥ K J 10 7 6 4 ♦ 10 ♣ K 4
WEST Phillip ♠ 6 4 2 ♥ Q 8 ♦ A Q 8 ♣ A Q 9 8 6

West	North	East	South
Phillip	Robot	Robot	Robot
	1 ♥	Pass	1 ♠
2 ♣	2 ♠	Pass	3 ♥
Pass	4 ♠	(All pass)

There are four cover cards missing: the heart ace, the diamond king, and two trump honors. A  game invitation by responder typically contains three, which leaves partner with one--probably not the heart ace, given South's three heart bid.

Declarer plays low from dummy. Partner plays the deuce; declarer, the three. If there is any logic to partner's plays at trick one, I haven't figured it out yet. I would play partner's deuce as discouraging, suggesting a diamond shift. With nothing in diamonds, I would encourage in clubs. I know partner doesn't think that way. Thankfully, he doesn't play suit preference here. But I have no clue what his card actually means. 

If declarer has five spades, I might easily lose the diamond ace if I don't cash it. Five spades, six hearts, and a club adds up to twelve tricks. Cashing the ace and continuing the suit might even be productive. If partner's card is the diamond king, declarer will probably pick up my heart queen and make an overtrick if left to his own devices. But two rounds of diamonds gives him a problem. If he ruffs in dummy, draws three rounds of trump, and misguesses the heart queen, we will have diamonds to cash. One way to avoid this outcome is to ruff, then float the jack of hearts at trick three. If it loses, dummy still has trumps left to take the diamond tap. The downside is I might win with queen third and give partner a heart ruff. But, given my two club overcall, that's unlikely. If declarer chooses this line, we'll hold him to four.

Even if partner doesn't hold the diamond king, it doesn't appear that leading diamonds will do any harm. I play the diamond ace--ten--deuce--three, then the diamond queen. Declarer pitches the heart four from dummy, partner plays the seven, and declarer wins with the king. I suspect declarer has the diamond jack as well. With just the king, he would probably ruff in dummy to retain his stopper. Although, on second thought, maybe not. Partner's one cover card is apparently a trump honor. If it's the king, declarer might be winning this trick in his hand so he can take a trump finesse.

Declarer leads the spade five--deuce--nine--queen. Not the king? Funny that declarer placed me with the spade queen. After my overcall, I would expect him to play spades the other way. Partner plays the diamond jack- (guess I was wrong about that card)--five--eight--eight of spades. Here is the current position:

	NORTH Robot ♠ A J ♥ K J 10 7 6 ♦ -- ♣ K
WEST Phillip ♠ 6 4 ♥ Q 8 ♦ -- ♣ Q 9 8 6

What's going on? I don't think Declarer would bid three hearts without three. And I don't think he would be taking a first round finesse in trumps with five. So he rates to be 4-3 in the majors. If he was 4-3-4-2, he has a diamond left. If he draws trump, then misguesses the heart, he could lose a diamond as well and finish down two. Since it appears partner has the long diamond, that makes it attractive to take the heart finesse against him. Once declarer discovers I have three trumps, it is quite likely I am 3-1-3-6, so a heart finesse against partner will be doubly attractive. Maybe we'll actually beat this contract.

Declarer plays the spade jack and overtakes with the king. He then plays the jack of clubs to the king, partner following with the seven. That's a puzzling play. He doesn't know what's going on in hearts yet, so it might be important to retain the club entry for later. I can't imagine how cashing the club king can ever be the right play.

He now leads the jack of hearts, leaving the last trump outstanding. I harbor some hope of winning this trick. But no. Declarer wins with the ace and plays another heart. My queen pops up. So he wins and draws the last trump. Making four. I'm not sure what this line was all about, but it worked.

	NORTH Robot ♠ A J 9 8 ♥ K J 10 7 6 4 ♦ 10 ♣ K 4
WEST Phillip ♠ 6 4 2 ♥ Q 8 ♦ A Q 8 ♣ A Q 9 8 6		EAST Robot ♠ Q 3 ♥ 9 2 ♦ J 9 7 6 2 ♣ 10 7 5 2
	SOUTH Robot ♠ K 10 7 5 ♥ A 5 3 ♦ K 5 4 3 ♣ J 3

Minus 620 is worth 84.2%. Most declarers made either five or six after a poor start by the defense. Some Wests led a trump, picking up partner's queen. A trump lead betrays a lack of concern for the danger of dummy's heart suit. Others led the club ace and continued clubs. This effectively picks up partner's trump queen as well, since declarer wants to keep partner off play to prevent a diamond lead through his king. Not that you know that. But you do know attacking diamonds rates to make things harder for him.

Two defenders beat four spades after starting with the diamond ace and continuing diamonds at trick two. It's surprising this defense induces declarer to go down. I would expect declarer to ruff in dummy with the jack, then pass the eight of spades to retain control if trumps don't split. When that works, the safest line is to draw trumps and play West for the heart queen to avoid a guess in clubs. Now you make six. Unfortunately, I didn't check how the play went at those two tables after the first two tricks, and I no longer have access to the results on BBO for this tournament. So I don't know what line declarer chose instead.

In retrospect, I think the diamond ace is a better lead. Partner didn't raise clubs, so if we have a suit we can hammer away at to give declarer a problem, diamonds is probably it. But even if I led a diamond, I'm not sure I would continue the suit at trick two. While not cashing the club ace might make declarer's life more difficult, it might also result in declarer's taking the rest. If I do decide to cash it, then I transpose to the position I was in and presumably get the same result.