Free Weekly Instant Tournament - September 22 - Board 7

Board 7
Both sides vulnerable

♠ A K 10 9 8 4  ♥ K 9 7 4  ♦ A Q  ♣ K

I bid one spade; partner responds with one notrump.

Despite my 19 HCP, this hand hardly merits forcing to game. I have five spade tricks, one heart trick (half a trick for the king and half for the fourth heart), and one and a half tricks in diamonds. Seven and a half tricks in total plus a little for the club king. One generally needs eight and a half or nine to drive to game after a one-level response.

If I'm not going to drive to game, should I bid three spades or two hearts? Three spades has the advantage of getting my values across. Two hearts has the advantage of possibly finding a heart fit. If my heart suit were a minor, we might debate whether bidding three spades or showing minor will work out better. But we could easily belong in four hearts, so I don't want to risk missing a heart fit.

I bid two hearts, and partner corrects to two spades. My rule of thumb when partner shows a preference to my six-card suit is to bid one less than I would have bid had partner raised. If I would have invited game after a raise, I pass. If I would have bid game, I raise to three. With this hand, I would have bid four spades over a raise. So, by my rule, I should bid three spades now.

I'm inclined to override my rule however. After all, I would bid three spades even if my club king were the deuce. While I can't count the club king at full value, it's hardly worthless. To make the same bid with or without it feels wrong. Besides, stopping short of game with 19 HCP opposite a response is a scary prospect. Yes, I risked that when I bid only two hearts. But that was before I knew we had a fit. I'm not entirely confident with choosing four spades. But even if I'm wrong, I'm sure I'll have plenty of company.

I bid four spades. Everyone passes, and LHO leads the seven of clubs.

	NORTH Robot ♠ J 3 2 ♥ 6 2 ♦ 9 7 5 ♣ A 8 6 5 4
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ A K 10 9 8 4 ♥ K 9 7 4 ♦ A Q ♣ K

West	North	East	South
Robot	Robot	Robot	Phillip
			1 ♠
Pass	1 NT	Pass	2 ♥
Pass	2 ♠	Pass	4 ♠
(All pass)

My choice between three spades and four probably didn't matter. With three spades and an ace, partner should raise to four anyway. Personally, I don't care for his one notrump response. I see nothing wrong with raising one spade to two.

I have a shortage of dummy entries. I'd like to lead up to the heart king and take the diamond finesse, but it's hard to see how I can do both. My only convenient entry to dummy is with a heart ruff, so I have no easy way to lead up to the heart king. I suppose I could win this trick in dummy, wasting my club king. But that's giving up a sure club trick for a potential heart trick. That doesn't seem like a fair trade.

Suppose I cash a high trump and drop the spade queen. Now I can reach dummy with the spade jack and lead a heart. But the opponents can then play a third spade and stop my ruff. Again, I'm giving up a sure trick for a potential one. I might as well simply lead hearts out of my hand.

Since I intend to lose two heart tricks, I have to avoid either the spade loser or the diamond loser. Let's step through the play to see how that works.

I'll win the club in my hand and duck a heart. East will win and play a trump. I win and play another heart. If East is out of trumps, the opponents can't play a second trump, so I can score two heart ruffs. I can then pitch the diamond queen on the club ace, losing only two hearts and a trump.

If East wins the second heart and plays another trump, I'll hop. If the queen drops, I have ten tricks: six spades, a heart ruff, two clubs, and a diamond. If West shows out, I can ruff a heart. If the ace falls, the heart king is my tenth trick. If it doesn't, I can pitch my heart king on the club ace and try a diamond finesse.

Is there anything to gain by cashing a trump before I embark on this plan? Not that I see. I've already noted that I can't exploit dropping a stiff queen. So all cashing a trump does is increase the possibility the opponents can play two more rounds, depriving me of my heart ruff.

I play a low club from dummy, East plays the deuce, and I win with the king. I play the heart four--five--deuce--eight. East surprises me by switching to the diamond king. 

The diamond king? What's that all about? I suppose he is catering to my having a stiff queen. He doesn't want to set up a ruffing finesse against his king. If he thinks his partner might have the diamond ace, that suggests the heart ace is on my left. If East held it, he probably would not expect his partner to hold the diamond ace. There's not much I can do with that information. But it's good practice to draw whatever inferences you gain when something weird happens. Unusually plays can be revealing.

I win with the diamond ace; West follows with the three. I play a second heart. Seven--jack--six--three. West continues with the diamond deuce. East follows with the four. I win and cash the ace and king of spades.

East pitches the diamond eight on the second spade. I ruff a heart, pitch my last heart on the club ace, and concede a trump. Making four.

	NORTH Robot ♠ J 3 2 ♥ 6 2 ♦ 9 7 5 ♣ A 8 6 5 4
WEST Robot ♠ Q 7 6 ♥ Q J 5 ♦ J 10 3 2 ♣ Q 10 7		EAST Robot ♠ 5 ♥ A 10 8 3 ♦ K 8 6 4 ♣ J 9 3 2
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ A K 10 9 8 4 ♥ K 9 7 4 ♦ A Q ♣ K

Plus 620 is worth 86%. Lots of declarers cashed the ace and king of spades before attacking hearts. Drawing trump prematurely is a common mistake in these daylong tournaments. The declarers draw trump first, then look around for what to do next. They seem to be the victims of indoctrination.

I see I was wrong about the heart ace. Oh, well. It was only a inference, not a sure thing. But it's just as well it didn't matter. If I had needed to place the heart ace, I would have gotten it wrong.

Incidentally, look at that opening lead! With two unbid suits, West chose to lead from Q107 rather than from J1032. This is why I'm hesitant to draw inferences from the robots' opening leads. That choice makes no sense to me.

Free Weekly Instant Tournament - September 15 - Board 5

Board 5
Our side vulnerable

♠ K 10 3  ♥ A K J 4  ♦ A K  ♣ Q J 4 2

Two passes to me. I open with two notrump and partner raises to three. LHO leads the five of hearts.

	NORTH Robot ♠ A 8 7 ♥ Q 9 2 ♦ J 9 8 7 5 ♣ 8 5
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ K 10 3 ♥ A K J 4 ♦ A K ♣ Q J 4 2

West	North	East	South
Robot	Robot	Robot	Phillip
	Pass	Pass	2 NT
Pass	3 NT	(All pass)

I have eight cashing tricks. One possibility for a ninth is to find at least one club honor onside, a seventy-five percent chance.

Another possibility is to go after diamond tricks. I will need to find diamonds three-three or to drop the queen or ten in two rounds. My gut instinct says that's less than 75%. But the fact that this line yields two tricks instead of one makes it more attractive than playing clubs even if it is somewhat less likely to work.

Do I have time to develop a long diamond even if someone has queen-ten fourth? I cash the ace king, lead a heart to the queen, and play a diamond. No. I have only one dummy entry left, so I can't set up the last diamond and get back to cash it.

Maybe I can combine my chances, though. I can cash the ace and king of diamonds. If an honor drops, I set up diamonds. If it doesn't, I can consider switching to clubs. I'll still have two dummy entries to lead clubs twice.

I might as well start by inserting the heart nine. I don't see how that can hurt, and it will give me some clue about the lie of the heart suit. I play the nine, East plays the three, and I play low. West has apparently led from ten third or fourth unless East is playing a deep game.

I lead a diamond to the king. (The ace would suggest the king. The king is more ambiguous.) East plays the four; West, the three. The deuce is still out. On the ace of diamonds, West plays the deuce; East, the six. One opponent is giving honest count; the other isn't. Against humans, I would assume whoever doesn't have the queen is being honest in case his partner has the ace and needs to hold up. The player with the queen probably sees no reason to give honest count. 

In fact, I can state that more strongly. The hand with the queen must give false count. Any time one hand must give correct count in case his partner needs it, the other hand must give false count. Since declarer knows one hand can't afford to falsecard, he can trust the carding if the defenders' signals are consistent. But if one hand gives correct count and the other gives false count, declarer has no way to know which defender to trust.

These inferences aren't valid against robots, however. They don't think about such things. Their carding when declarer leads a suit appears to be random.

Since I didn't see the ten or the nine, should I switch plans and play on clubs? The two remaining diamonds are roughly 50% to split. (East can have queen-ten, West can have queen-ten, or they could be evenly split two ways. So they split in two cases out of four.) The club play works 75% of the time, so it is by far the better choice.

I play the jack of hearts to dummy's queen. West plays the seven; East, the six. Now five of clubs--seven--jack--ace. West continues with the heart ten. I win in my hand as East discards the club three. If East has the king, he probably has king fifth. He wouldn't pitch from king fourth, handing me a long club trick.

I cash the last heart and pitch a diamond from dummy. East pitches another club, the six. This isn't looking good. He wouldn't pitch two clubs from king fifth, so it looks as if the club king is offside. Maybe I can cash the ace and king of spades and toss West in to force a club lead. West would need to be 4-4-2-3 with the queen-jack of spades. Or maybe 3-4-3-3 with queen-jack of spades and the diamond queen. Neither seems likely. If East has nothing in spades, he might have pitched spades instead of clubs. Maybe West has ace-king tight of clubs and I can duck the king out.

I'll worry about that after I play a club from dummy. I play a low spade to the ace. West plays the deuce; East, the four. West might have split from queen-jack of spades, so I doubt he has both honors. Endplaying him is out. 

I play the eight of clubs from dummy, not entirely sure yet whether I'm going to duck it or not. East solves my problem by hopping with the king, and West pitches the ten of diamonds. I see. King sixth of clubs on my right. That's why he could afford to pitch two of them. Making three.

	NORTH Robot ♠ A 8 7 ♥ Q 9 2 ♦ J 9 8 7 5 ♣ 8 5
WEST Robot ♠ Q 6 5 2 ♥ 10 8 7 5 ♦ Q 10 3 2 ♣ A		EAST Robot ♠ J 9 4 ♥ 6 3 ♦ 6 4 ♣ K 10 9 7 6 3
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ K 10 3 ♥ A K J 4 ♦ A K ♣ Q J 4 2

Plus 400 is worth an astounding 96%. Why?

It turns out the field is persisting in diamonds even after an honor fails to drop, taking their 50% line instead of their 75% line. But hold on. Maybe the field is right. In calculating the odds, I completely forgot to factor in that the diamond play yields two tricks if it works. I did say that fact made the diamond play "more attractive than playing clubs even if it is somewhat less likely to work." But I never quantified that "somewhat."

Half the time, the diamond play does a trick better than the club play. When does the club play do better? We need both the club play to work (75%) and the diamond play to fail (50%). So the club play is better only 37.5% of the time. 

Why did I have this blind spot? I think once I calculated the diamond play worked only half the time, I instinctively rejected it. One doesn't usually risk one's contract for an overtrick on a coin toss. But that's because the alternative is usually ensuring your contract. When the alternative is only a 75% play anyway, a coin toss is sufficient. I made the right play at IMPs but the wrong play at matchpoints. .

Free Weekly Instant Tournament - September 8 - Board 6

Board 6
Opponents vulnerable

♠ A Q J 9 8 7 5  ♥ J 10 6  ♦ A J  ♣ A

I have eight and a half playing tricks in spades. One spade followed by three spades typically shows seven and a half or eight, so this hand is too good for that sequence. My plan is to open one spade and bid four spades over partner's putative one-notrump response.

I don't get to open, however. RHO opens with one heart in front of me. I bid one spade, LHO and partner pass, and RHO reopens with a double.

Since partner couldn't bid, I'm not worth four spades any more. So I ratchet it in a notch and bid three spades. This alerts partner to the fact that I'm not simply competing. I still think we might have a game. A simple two spades would not accomplish that.

LHO passes, and partner bids three notrump.

In general, when partner suggests three notrump and you have three cards in the opponent's suit, you should respect his decision. That is certainly true here. We are apt to run into heart ruffs in spades, so it looks safer to try for nine tricks in notrump. I pass, and RHO leads the three of clubs.

	NORTH Phillip ♠ A Q J 9 8 7 5 ♥ J 10 6 ♦ A J ♣ A
	SOUTH Robot ♠ 6 3 ♥ Q 5 3 ♦ 10 9 8 6 ♣ K 9 8 5

West	North	East	South
Robot	Phillip	Robot	Robot
1 ♥	1 ♠	Pass	Pass
Double	3 ♠	Pass	3 NT
(All pass)

I appear to have made the right decision. In four spades, the opponents will start with two hearts and a ruff. I will then be unable to reach dummy for a spade finesse or to score the club king, so I will probably finish down two. In this contract, I should manage six spade tricks and two aces. I have good chances for a ninth trick. But even if I can't find one, I may get a decent result for going down only one.

Where might I find a ninth trick? The spade king could be singleton. Or the opponents might persist in clubs when they gain the lead. Or I might be able to establish a heart trick. If the opponents can take two diamonds before I establish a heart, I'll go down. But if West has both diamond honors or one honor doubleton, they can't do that. 

I win with dummy's club ace. East plays the deuce. It's unfortunate he has that card. If his lowest card were higher than my five, I would conceal the five. But there is no way I can make the deuce look high, so I don't bother to falsecard.

I cash the spade ace--deuce--three--four. Now queen of spades--king--six--club four. So East has king third of spades. Four spades has no chance. Unfortunately, I allowed West to pitch a club. One of my chances was that East would continue clubs. Now he isn't going to do that. I wonder if I should have led the queen of spades at trick two and not cashed the ace.

East shifts to the nine of hearts. I play low and West wins with the king. I brace myself for the diamond shift, but he cashes the heart king and plays another heart. I have the rest. Making four.

	NORTH Phillip ♠ A Q J 9 8 7 5 ♥ J 10 6 ♦ A J ♣ A
WEST Robot ♠ 4 ♥ A K 8 4 2 ♦ K 7 3 ♣ Q 7 4 3		EAST Robot ♠ K 10 2 ♥ 9 7 ♦ Q 5 4 2 ♣ J 10 6 2
	SOUTH Robot ♠ 6 3 ♥ Q 5 3 ♦ 10 9 8 6 ♣ K 9 8 5

I don't know why East didn't find the diamond shift. How can ace and a third heart ever be right? Plus 430 is worth 100%. 

It's strange to get 100% for doing nothing but taking the obvious action at every turn. What did everyone else do?

Several players doubled one heart. From the fact that I didn't discuss an alternative to one spade, you can probably tell that call didn't even cross my mind. The idea of doubling because your hand is too good to overcall is an old-fashioned one. I'm surprised it's even still around.

If it were just old-fashioned, that wouldn't necessarily be bad. But the idea is also misguided. Doubles should suggest flexible hands. Hands with an independent suit don't qualify. If double followed by a new suit shows an independent suit, it restricts your ability to make sensible rebids after a double. Sometimes, after partner's advance, you want to make an exploratory bid in a new suit without suggesting that a singleton, or even two small, is sufficient support. 

Some bid an immediate four spades over four hearts. I've never understood the appeal of pre-empting with good hands. If four spades rated to be a good save if it went down, it might make sense to bid it. But that's not the case here. You have too much defense. You are probably entitled to a plus score, so you don't want to bid four spades unless it's making.

One player bid one spade, then passed over the double (hoping East would defend?). When East bid two clubs, he competed to two spades. Then, when West balanced with three clubs, he took the push to three spades. This sounds like an eBay auction. Not only does this sequence let the opponents exchange information, increasing the chance they will make the correct final decision, it also makes it sound to partner as if you are reluctantly being pushed. If you're happy to complete to three spades, why not just bid it over the double so partner knows you're serious? 

A few players had the same auction I did but corrected three notrump to four spades. I'm sure one can construct hands where four spades is a better spot than three notrump, but it isn't easy. Holding three hearts is a red flag in this auction.

Free Weekly Instant Tournament - September 1 - Board 4

Board 4
Both sides vulnerable

♠ 5 2  ♥ A K 10 9  ♦ K 10  ♣ Q 10 9 7 5

Three passes to me. I have only 14 Casino points (HCP plus spade length). Conventional wisdom is you need 15 Casino points to open in fourth seat, but I think that's wrong. Average is 13 1/3. I think anything above average is worth opening, so I open with one club.

LHO passes, partner responds one spade, and RHO passes. I bid one notrump, and partner bids three spades, invitational. I have a minimum in high cards and no spade fit. And partner's spades probably aren't very good, since he didn't open with a weak two bid. So I'm not worth an acceptance. It is close, however. As minimums go, this a good hand. Four controls, three tens, two nines. But I think I need a bit more than that to accept with a small doubleton spade.

I pass. RHO leads the diamond ace.

	NORTH Phillip ♠ 5 2 ♥ A K 10 9 ♦ K 10 ♣ Q 10 9 7 5
	SOUTH Robot ♠ A K J 8 6 4 ♥ J 5 3 2 ♦ J 2 ♣ 3

West	North	East	South
Robot	Phillip	Robot	Robot
		Pass	Pass
Pass	1 ♣	Pass	1 ♠
Pass	1 NT	Pass	3 ♠
(All pass)

I'm not sure why partner didn't open two spades with that hand. Because of the four-card heart suit perhaps? If he felt that way, he should have opened one spade. You have to bid either two or one. Passing with that suit isn't an option. Besides, if you're just going to ignore the heart suit and treat the hand a spade one-suiter anyway, what does passing accomplish?

East plays the diamond six, presumably encouraging with the queen. Should I play the jack or deuce? The jack suggests I have shortness, since it would be an unlikely play from jack third. I want West to worry that I have three diamonds so that he might shift to a trump, so I play the deuce.

West continues with the nine of diamonds. East plays the three. Does West's failure to shift to a trump mark him with the trump queen? No. He might have a stiff trump, which would also be an unattractive shift. Or he might have six diamonds and be unconcerned about a diamond ruff, since his partner will be overruffing. Or he might decide that stopping the ruff is the wrong approach altogether. Forcing declarer to ruff a loser is sometimes a better strategy than leading trump.

Imagine, for example, I had two small diamonds left and king-queen sixth of spades. Two rounds of spades stops the ruff. But who says I need the ruff? I may be able to pitch the third diamond somewhere. As long as I have the diamond king to stop the suit, there is no hurry to dispose of my third diamond. Knocking out the diamond king, however, may give me a problem. I win, play a spade to the queen, and it holds. Now what? What if I can't take my pitch without drawing trump first? If I play another trump, the defense can cash a diamond. If I ruff the diamond, I can't lead up to the spade king.

This is only one scenario where exposing the third-round diamond loser is a better strategy than leading trump. I'm sure you can think of others. In short, there is a variety of reasons West might have for not shifting to a trump. So I see no reason to spurn the spade finesse.

Should I take a first-round finesse or cash the ace to guard against a stiff queen? If I play a spade to the ace, I must then return to dummy with a heart to take the spade finesse. If the finesse loses and West plays another heart, I have a problem. If I take the heart finesse, East might win and give his partner a heart ruff. 

That's not even the only problem with this line. I may be able to set up two club tricks, so I can avoid a heart finesse altogether. But I can't do that if I waste heart entries. Suppose West has honor-jack tight of clubs, for example. After I draw trump, I play a club. If he hops and plays a heart, I win and lead the queen of clubs. I know from the opening lead West doesn't have both high club honors, so if East doesn't cover, I can let it ride safely, pinning the jack

To keep my heart entries intact, I'm going to pay off to a stiff queen of spades offside. I play a low spade to the jack. West wins with the queen and continues with the spade ten to East's seven and my ace.

If I draw the last trump, I have to pitch dummy's fifth club. Is there any scenario where I need that fifth club? Perhaps. If the opponents make a mistake and play a second round of clubs for me, I get two ruffs. Say, for example, West hops with honor third of clubs and plays another one. I ruff out East's jack and still have two heart entries to ruff out his other honor and cash my tricks. Or suppose West ducks with honor-jack third and East wins and plays another club. Again, I can score two ruffs, setting up two club tricks, and still have a heart to get back to cash them.

Neither of those mistakes is likely. But they are possible, and I can't exploit them without five clubs in dummy. I don't see any pressing need to draw the last trump. So why not lead a club now to give the opponents a chance to make a mistake?

I play a club, West plays the deuce, and East takes dummy's nine with the jack. East returns the diamond queen. I ruff. West follows with the diamond five.

The club suit didn't pan out. I draw the last trump, pitching a club from dummy. West pitches the heart six; East follows with the spade nine. 

West pitched a heart? What heart holding might he be pitching from? Not queen third. His partner might have jack doubleton. Queen fourth? Maybe. Although with that holding he might have shifted to a heart at trick two, trying to give his partner a heart ruff.

I play the heart deuce--seven--ace--four. Now that I've seen the four, I know West's six was his lowest. The robots almost always pitch count cards if the suit hasn't been played yet. So it appears West made a careless discard from three small hearts.

I lead the club ten. East covers with the ace. I ruff, and West follows with the four. Now jack of hearts--eight--king--queen. Making four.

	NORTH Phillip ♠ 5 2 ♥ A K 10 9 ♦ K 10 ♣ Q 10 9 7 5
WEST Robot ♠ Q 10 ♥ 8 7 6 ♦ A 9 8 7 5 ♣ K 4 2		EAST Robot ♠ 9 7 3 ♥ Q 4 ♦ Q 6 4 3 ♣ A J 8 6
	SOUTH Robot ♠ A K J 8 6 4 ♥ J 5 3 2 ♦ J 2 ♣ 3

Plus 170 is worth only 54%. I thought dropping the offside heart queen might have been worth more. But most declarers dropped it. Some dropped the spade queen also and made five. Perhaps because of West's failure to shift to a trump at trick two? As I said at the time, West has other reasons for not shifting to a trump. I don't think the inference he has the queen is strong enough to make an anti-percentage play in the suit.

I did, however, make a mistake in not drawing the last trump. There was a slight advantage in not drawing it, and at the time I didn't think it could cost. But I was wrong.

To see why, suppose West did have honor-jack doubleton of clubs as I hoped. I play a club. He hops and leads a heart. I win and lead the club queen. If East covers, great! But what if he ducks?  If I pitch a heart, the club jack drops, but now I'm stuck in dummy in this position::

	NORTH Phillip ♠ -- ♥ A K 10 9 ♦ -- ♣ 10 9 7
	SOUTH Robot ♠ K 8 6 4 ♥ J 5 3 ♦ -- ♣ --

The spade nine is still out. If West has it, I'm in trouble.

In fact, suppose East is clever enough to duck the club queen even with honor-jack fourth remaining. Now if I pitch a heart, I could actually go down. The clubs don't set up, so I might lose a trump and the heart queen. That might teach me to draw trump.