I'm up 12 imps going into the last board of the match.
Board 16
Opponents vulnerable
| ♠ A J ♥ A 5 3 ♦ A Q 5 ♣ Q 9 5 4 3 |
Three passes to me. I open with one notrump. Partner bids two clubs, Stayman. I bid two diamonds. Partner bids two notrump and I go on to three. West leads the deuce of spades.
| NORTH Robot ♠ 10 8 ♥ K J 10 4 ♦ J 8 2 ♣ A 10 8 7 |
||
| SOUTH Phillip ♠ A J ♥ A 5 3 ♦ A Q 5 ♣ Q 9 5 4 3 |
| West | North | East | South |
| Robot | Robot | Robot | Phillip |
| Pass | Pass | Pass | 1 NT |
| Pass | 2 ♣ | Pass | 2 ♦ |
| Pass | 2 NT | Pass | 3 NT |
| (All pass) |
If East plays a spade honor on this trick, I don't like my chances of making this. I could try to drop a stiff king of clubs on my left. Or lead the queen, hoping to find a stiff jack on my right. Or I could hope both red-suit finesses are on. If I win the spade and run the heart suit, then lead a diamond to the queen, I'm down to this position:
(A)| NORTH Robot ♠ 10 ♥ -- ♦ J 8 ♣ A 10 8 7 |
||
| SOUTH Phillip ♠ J ♥ -- ♦ A 5 ♣ Q 9 5 4 |
I've taken six tricks. The two aces make eight, so I need to find one more. East, who presumably began with five spades, must hold all four of his remaining spades, else I can afford to concede a club trick. East must also hold two diamonds, else I can drop his king. So he was squeezed down to a stiff club. If it's the stiff jack or king and I can guess which, I'm home.
And there's a fourth option. I could play West for honor-nine-seven-deuce of spades, in which case the suit is blocked and I can try to set up clubs.
I'm not sure yet which line I'll go for. I play the eight of spades from dummy, and East plays the nine. This deal just got easier. All I have to do now is avoid two club losers.
In isolation, the right way to play this suit is to play ace and another. The alternative of taking two finesses is correct with eight clubs but not with nine. Taking two finesses loses to king-jack tight or third offside. Ace and another loses to king-jack third or fourth offside. The king-jack thirds cancel out, and king-jack tight is more likely than king-jack fourth.
We aren't in isolation, however. West led the deuce of spades. If we assume he would have led a five-card suit if he had one, then the only way he can hold a singleton club is if he is specifically 4-4-4-1. That makes king-jack third on my right unlikely and tips the scale in favor of the double finesse. The assumption that West would have led a five-card suit if he had one is less certain against a robot than against a human, since robots like passive leads. But, given West chose to lead aggressively, I think it's safe to assume he would have led a five-card suit in preference to king-queen fourth.
Accordingly, I lead the three of clubs. No finesse is necessary, since West plays the jack. I win with dummy's ace as East plays the six. I continue with the seven of clubs. East pitches the six of diamonds and West wins with the king. West split with king-jack third? That was a poor play. I was intending to finesse, but he didn't know that. Splitting takes my guess away. Plus, for all he knows his partner had a stiff queen and splitting costs a trick by force.
West continues with the king of spades. East plays the six, and I take the ace.
West apparently began with king-queen fourth of spades and East with nine fifth. Since West has 9 HCP already and passed in first seat, the diamond king must be on my right.
I lead the nine of clubs and play low from dummy. East pitches the nine of hearts. The robots pitch count cards, so East appears to be either 5-2-5-1 or 5-4-3-1. The former seems more likely, since I doubt East would pitch down to a doubleton king of diamonds at his first opportunity.
When I cash the club queen, West pitches the three of diamonds; East, the diamond seven. That's a bit unexpected. If East is true to form and pitched his lowest diamond from five at his first discard, he must have K10976, leaving West with 43 doubleton, which means West pitched low from his doubleton. While the robots like to pitch count cards from length, I have noticed that they don't always pitch high from doubletons, especially from equals. So I'll assume I'm still right about the shape. On the last club, West pitches the four of spades; East, the deuce of hearts. If I've read the deal correctly, this should be the position:
(B)| NORTH Robot ♠ -- ♥ K J 10 4 ♦ J 8 ♣ -- |
||
| WEST Robot ♠ Q ♥ Q 8 7 6 ♦ 4 ♣ -- |
EAST Robot ♠ 7 5 3 ♥ -- ♦ K 10 9 ♣ -- |
|
| SOUTH Phillip ♠ -- ♥ A 5 3 ♦ A Q 5 ♣ -- |
East will show out when I cash the heart ace, and I can take the rest of the tricks.
I cash the ace of hearts--eight--four--five of spades. Now a heart to the jack on which East pitches the three of spades I lead the jack of diamonds. East covers with the king, but I was finessing anyway. I take the ace and claim. Making six.
| NORTH Robot ♠ 10 8 ♥ K J 10 4 ♦ J 8 2 ♣ A 10 8 7 |
||
| WEST Robot ♠ K 7 4 2 ♥ Q 8 7 6 ♦ 4 3 ♣ K J 2 |
EAST Robot ♠ Q 9 6 5 3 ♥ 9 2 ♦ K 10 9 7 6 ♣ 6 |
|
| SOUTH Phillip ♠ A J ♥ A 5 3 ♦ A Q 5 ♣ Q 9 5 4 3 |
Whoa! I was wrong about the spade queen. East played the nine at trick one holding queen-nine, apparently playing me for king-jack third. Had he played the queen, I would have a problem. As it happens, none of the four lines I contemplated works. But which one is right one?
It's hard to calculate the chance that West has a stiff club. But, given the opening lead, it's small. Let's assume it's zero for now to make our calculations easier. We can come back and revisit that assumption if necessary.
That means Line 1 (playing West for a stiff king) is out. Line 2 (playing East for a stiff jack) works in one out of four cases when the suit is 3-1 and in zero out of six cases when the suit is 2-2. That's 10% of the time. Line 3 (the squeeze) needs two finesses plus East having whichever club honor I choose to play him for. That's essentially three finesses, or 12.5% of the time.
What about Line 4 (playing for the suit to block)? There are six critical spot cards, so fifteen ways for West to hold two of them for his middle spot cards. That means he will hold specifically K972 one time in fifteen. And even if the suit is blocked, I still have to be able to establish a club trick, so the line is worse than that.
The squeeze is the winner in our rough calculation. What happens if we revisit our assumption that West can't have a stiff club? That assumption overstated the odds of dropping the stiff jack but had no bearing on the squeeze. So the squeeze is still the winner.
[Jazlene is good at these calculations, so I had her check them over before I published. She points out that my one-in-fifteen calculation for the spade suit's being blocked assumes West has the spade king. In fact, I don't know that he does. He's two to one to have the spade king by restricted choice, but East might have both honors. So Line 4, which was already in last place, falls even further behind.
She also pointed out that my statement after Diagram A, "So he was squeezed down to a stiff club," is incorrect. If East began with a doubleton king of diamonds, he wasn't squeezed. He's now down to a stiff king of diamonds and two clubs. So I should try to drop the diamond king before making my guess in clubs.]
Jazlene took 11 tricks on this board, so I pick up another imp, winning the match by 13. In her post mortem, she also pointed out that ace and another club was right in isolation but concluded that, because of the opening lead, it was right to take two finesses. Her reasoning was slightly different from mine. You can hear her argument at JazPlaysBridge.
It was a tight match. 13 of the 16 boards were pushes or small swings. Jazlene bid more aggressively than I did on two deals. She lost 5 imps on one and picked up 12 on the other. Both results were just. She overbid on the first board, and I underbid on the second. I regained those 7 imps with a series of 1- and 2-imp wins, bringing the match back to even. The match hinged on board ten, where we each faced a guess on an auction made awkward by the robots' methods. I guessed right and picked up 13 imps, the margin of victory. On a different layout, her guess would have been right. So the board--hence the match--could easily have gone the other way.
Next week, I return to the Free Weekly Instant Tournament format. If you want to compare results, be sure to play in this week's tournament on BBO. You have until Thursday night.
