Free Weekly Instant Tournament - November 14 - Board 1

Board 1
Neither side vulnerable

I hope you played in last week's Free Weekly Instant Tournament on BBO. If so, you can compare with either Alex or me in the following weeks. Surprisingly, Alex did exactly the same thing as I did on every board:

♠ A 7  ♥ K 6 5 4  ♦ A K 10 8  ♣ A 7 3

Two passes to me. I have 18 HCP and a balanced hand, so I open one diamond, intending to rebid two notrump.

LHO overcalls with one heart, and partner raises to two diamonds. I bid two notrump as planned, and everyone passes. LHO leads the jack of hearts.

	NORTH Robot ♠ Q 9 ♥ 8 7 2 ♦ J 7 4 2 ♣ K J 8 4
	♥ J
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ A 7 ♥ K 6 5 4 ♦ A K 10 8 ♣ A 7 3

West	North	East	South
Robot	Robot	Robot	Phillip
	Pass	Pass	1 ♦
1 ♥	2 ♦	Pass	2 NT
(All pass)

Some pairs will be in game. In fact, we would be in game if I held partner's hand. There's nothing I can do about the pairs who are in game and make it. But I want to make sure to beat anyone who go down. So my first job is to find eight tricks. Once I've ensured going plus, then I'll worry about beating the other pairs in two notrump.

I have six tricks off the top. I can establish a seventh in diamonds. If either minor-suit queen is onside, I have an eighth. West did overcall, however, so he has a better hand than East. Could it be right to try to drop a doubleton queen of diamonds in his hand?

If West has the club queen, I don't need to pick up diamonds, so let's assume East has it. Let's also assume West has at most two diamonds, else my diamond play won't matter. In that case, West probably has the spade king for his overcall.

♠ K x x  ♥ A J 10 x x  ♦ x x  ♣ x x x

and

♠ K x x  ♥ A J 10 x x  ♦ Q x  ♣ x x x

both look like fine overcalls to me. Since East has three diamonds to West's two, he is more apt to have the queen. So the first hand is more likely. 

Might West also overcall with

♠ J x x  ♥ A J 10 x x  ♦ Q x  ♣ x x x ?

The tooltip says the overcall shows 8+ HCP, but a doubleton queen in opener's suit isn't worth 2 HCP in my book. Still, robots aren't big on evaluation, so he might overcall. If so, that makes playing for the drop a bit more attractive. But once you consider the possibility that West might have a stiff diamond, the odds shift way in the other direction. It's clearly right to finesse.

I play the seven of hearts from dummy. (Always stay flexible with your spots.) East plays the queen. In some scenarios, it would be right to duck, so they can't set up their heart tricks easily. But here I don't want East switching to a spade, so I can't afford to duck. Besides, I might never score my heart king if I do. So I win with the king.

I cash the diamond king. West plays the nine; East, the three. I play the seven of clubs. (My closest spot to middle.) West plays the nine. I play the jack from dummy, and East follows with the deuce.

I've made my contract. Now it's about overtricks. I lead the diamond jack from dummy--five--eight--six. If West has the spade king, he's going to feel some pressure when I cash diamonds. I play a diamond to my hand. West pitches the four of spades. On the last diamond, he pitches the three of hearts. Yes. He's feeling pressure.

East pitches the three of spades. I still haven't seen the spade deuce. One of the opponents is probably pitching bloodless count. Either West has Kx42 or East has Jxxx32.

I've never understood bloodless count. If you don't want to give count, then don't. If you do, play your loudest card. What's the point of playing a card partner can't read?

I cash the club ace. West drops the queen; East plays the six. When I lead a club to dummy's king, both opponents follow. This is the current position. West is apparently down to two spades and three hearts:

	NORTH Robot ♠ Q 9 ♥ 8 2 ♦ -- ♣ 8
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ A 7 ♥ 6 5 4 ♦ -- ♣ --

I cash the last club. East plays the spade deuce. (There it is.) I pitch a small heart, and West pitches the heart ace, coming down to two spades and two hearts. Not his best move. I toss him in with a heart and he has to lead from his king of spades at the end. Making five.

	NORTH Robot ♠ Q 9 ♥ 8 7 2 ♦ J 7 4 2 ♣ K J 8 4
WEST Robot ♠ K 5 4 ♥ A J 10 9 3 ♦ 9 6 ♣ Q 10 9		EAST Robot ♠ J 10 8 6 3 2 ♥ Q ♦ Q 5 3 ♣ 6 5 2
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ A 7 ♥ K 6 5 4 ♦ A K 10 8 ♣ A 7 3

Plus 210 is worth 93%. One pair bid three notrump and made it. Everyone else was in a partscore.

West's pitching down to two spades and two hearts was a mistake. I had a complete count, so the only way he could gain was if I had ace-ten of spades and played him for the spade jack at the end.

What he should do is pitch two spades immediately, then a heart--preferably the nine. Now I have three chances to go wrong. With ace-jack, I might finesse. With ace-ten, I might lead the queen from dummy, trying to pin the jack. I should guess right, of course, since the spade king gives East a weak two-bid. But at least coming down to a stiff king gives me the opportunity to make a mistake.

What about the third chance to go wrong? I might miscount. Sometimes declarer is careless and doesn't pay full attention to the early discards. A heart discard at the end is less suspicious--especially if it's the nine, since it looks as if you have ace-ten left. A spade discard screams that you're coming down to a singleton.

Free Weekly Instant Tournament - September 19 - Board 8

For Alex's analysis:

Board 8
Neither side vulnerable

♠ A 9 8 2  ♥ A Q 3  ♦ Q 9 3  ♣ J 10 3

Three passes to me. I open with one club. Partner bids one spade, and RHO bids one notrump.

Since he's a passed hand, that's an "unusual notrump." The tooltip says it at shows least five-five in the unbid suits. I can't imagine why. You can double to show the unbid suits. Why have two calls to show the same thing? Besides, double is preferable, since it gives partner the option of defending.

Since it makes little sense to play one notrump as showing the unbid suits, I would play it showing minors, despite the one-club opening. I don't see how that loses. Your alternative with that hand is to overcall two diamonds, and one notrump leaves open two additional strains. (And I'm not the only one who thinks that. I remember hearing Al Roth rebuke his partner after a disaster: "No! It's minors! It's always minors!")

I raise to two spades, and partner tries for game with three of clubs. The ace-queen of hearts behind the bidder is a plus. But the queen of diamonds is probably wasted. Move that card into the club suit, and I would accept. With this hand, I settle for three spades. Everyone passes, and RHO leads the five of hearts.

	NORTH Phillip ♠ A 9 8 2 ♥ A Q 3 ♦ Q 9 3 ♣ J 10 3
	♥ 5
	SOUTH Robot ♠ Q J 10 6 3 ♥ K J 4 ♦ A 2 ♣ 9 7 4

West	North	East	South
Robot	Phillip	Robot	Robot
		Pass	Pass
Pass	1 ♣	Pass	1 ♠
1 NT	2 ♠	Pass	3 ♣
Pass	3 ♠	(All pass)

West has shown at least five-five in the red suits, and he might have led a stiff club. So his likeliest shape is 1-5-5-2. The spade king is probably offside, giving me five losers: a spade, a diamond, and three clubs. But if West has two club honors doubleton and the diamond king, I can make this. If they don't untangle their club tricks in time, I can set up dummy's queen of diamonds for a club pitch.

Actually, I might make this even if the diamond king is offside. Suppose this is the layout:

	NORTH Phillip ♠ A 9 8 2 ♥ A Q 3 ♦ Q 9 3 ♣ J 10 3
WEST Robot ♠ x ♥ x x x x x ♦ J 10 x x x ♣ A Q		EAST Robot ♠ K x x ♥ x x ♦ K x x ♣ K x x x x
	SOUTH Robot ♠ Q J 10 6 3 ♥ K J 4 ♦ A 2 ♣ 9 7 4

Say I win and take a trump finesse. It loses. If East returns a trump or a heart, I can draw trump, cash hearts, then play a club. West cashes clubs and plays a diamond. If he leads the jack, I can cover, capture the king with my ace, and lead toward the nine. If he leads low, I insert the nine, making when West has either jack-ten or the king.

The problem is, when I lose the trump finesse, East will almost surely switch to a club, letting West cash his clubs while he still has a heart exit.

Maybe I should forget about the spade finesse. If West is indeed 1-5-5-2, I don't need to take it. Spurning the finesse allows me to conceal my heart strength. I can win in dummy with the queen of hearts and play ace and a spade. Now my hand is no longer an open book. It will appear to East that his partner has king-jack of hearts. So he might well continue hearts.

What's the danger in that line? It's possible West has a stiff club and chose not to lead it. It would be embarrassing to play ace and a spade only to find king doubleton onside. I suppose it's even possible West has a club void and king third of spades, although East might have bid at some point with seven solid clubs. Still, part of being a good declarer is creating problems for the opponents, even if you have to take some risks to do so. If this works, the opponents will be demoralized--if it's possible to demoralize a robot. I think these risks are small, so I'm going to go for it.

I play the queen from dummy, East plays the ten, and I follow with the four. 

I lead the spade ace. West pitches the four of diamonds. Four-zero trumps! That kills the endplay. What's West's shape? There is only one heart lower than the five, so West can't have six hearts. And, since the robots usually pitch count cards, the diamond four is probably from a five-card suit. So West is 0-5-5-3, and there's no club blockage.

I play a spade from dummy. East takes the spade king. West pitches the diamond seven. West returns the nine of hearts. At least I kept him off the club play, for all the good it's going to do me.

I win in my hand with the jack, as West follows with the eight. I don't see anything to play for except for West to have given false count in diamonds and for clubs to be blocked after all.

I draw trump. West pitches the five of diamonds and the seven of hearts. We've reached this position, with the lead in my hand:

	NORTH Phillip ♠ -- ♥ A ♦ Q 9 3 ♣ J 10 3
	SOUTH Robot ♠ 6 ♥ K ♦ A 2 ♣ 9 7 4

Now ace and a diamond. West hops with the king and plays another heart. I get my pitch. Making three. So the clubs were blocked? West gave false count in diamonds?

No. Here's the full deal:

	NORTH Phillip ♠ A 9 8 2 ♥ A Q 3 ♦ Q 9 3 ♣ J 10 3
WEST Robot ♠ -- ♥ 8 7 6 5 2 ♦ K 10 7 5 4 ♣ A Q 8		EAST Robot ♠ K 7 5 4 ♥ 10 9 ♦ J 8 6 ♣ K 6 5 2
	SOUTH Robot ♠ Q J 10 6 3 ♥ K J 4 ♦ A 2 ♣ 9 7 4

West simply butchered the defense. He knew his partner had the club king, else South would have driven to game. So why didn't he cash clubs? Ah, I see. He thought his partner had the last trump and this was the position after he won the diamond king:

	NORTH Phillip ♠ -- ♥ A ♦ Q ♣ J 10 3
WEST Robot ♠ -- ♥ 6 2 ♦ -- ♣ A Q 8		EAST Robot ♠ 6 ♥ -- ♦ 8 ♣ K 6 5
	SOUTH Robot ♠ -- ♥ K ♦ -- ♣ 9 7 4 2

If he ruffs out my heart ace, the defense takes the rest. If he cashes clubs, I score a diamond at the end. Of course, if that were the layout, I would have played diamonds earlier to score a ruff in my hand. The robots really need to learn to draw inferences.

I score 89% for plus 140 and finish with a respectable 72%.

Be sure to play in this week's Free Weekly Instant Tournament on BBO so we can start comparing results next week.

Free Weekly Instant Tournament - September 19 - Board 6

Alex also discusses this deal in Gargoyle Chronicle's YouTube channel:

Board 6
Opponents vulnerable

♠ Q J  ♥ J 5 2  ♦ A Q 10 5 4 3  ♣ A 3

Pass on my right. I'm sure some will open with one notrump, letting the six-card suit compensate for the missing high-card point. I'm not averse to opening one notrump with a six-card minor. But this hand doesn't look good enough to me. A strong notrump typically has three and a half to four honor tricks. This hand has a little better than two and half.

I open with one diamond. LHO overcalls with one heart, partner makes a negative double, and RHO raises to two hearts. It's a flaw in the robots' methods that I can't bid with this hand. But I can't. Partner would expect a much better hand for three diamonds, and two notrump is natural. I pass perforce. LHO also passes, and partner reopens with a double.

I think this double should be "take-out" of opener's suit, in other words, promising at least three hearts, at least three clubs, and no more than two diamonds. With that understanding, I would pass. But the robots play this double as virtually meaningless. It says nothing other than that partner doesn't want to sell out. I don't see how that's playable. You need some agreement as to responder's possible shapes to be able to make an intelligent decision. But my robot partner refuses to listen to my suggestions. So I guess to pull to three diamonds.

Everyone passes, and West leads the king of hearts.

	NORTH Robot ♠ 7 6 5 2 ♥ A 8 6 ♦ K 8 6 ♣ J 6 2
	♥ K
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ Q J ♥ J 5 2 ♦ A Q 10 5 4 3 ♣ A 3

West	North	East	South
Robot	Robot	Robot	Phillip
		Pass	1 ♦
1 ♥	Double	2 ♥	Pass
Pass	Double	Pass	3 ♦
(All pass)

West overcalled in a four-card heart suit? That suggests he doesn't have the right shape for a take-out double. He probably has a doubleton spade. Most likely 2-4-3-4. This is going to be a surprise to East. East will think I have a doubleton heart and will miscount my hand. Perhaps I can make use of that at some point.

I duck in dummy. East plays the four, and I "encourage" with the five.

West doesn't fall for it. He shifts to the ten of clubs. I don't want East on play for a heart through, so I duck in dummy, and, when East plays the seven, I duck in my hand as well.

West continues with the nine of clubs. I play low. This time East contributes the king and I take my ace.

Why did East play the club king? It's easy to gloss over such matters. But any time an opponent does something unexpected, it's worth pausing to figure out why. If you can, it may reveal the whole layout to you.

One possibility is he has king-queen and is giving suit preference for spades. At least that would be a possibility if East were human. But the robots don't play suit preference, so that can't be it. Perhaps he has king small and doesn't want to win the third round of clubs. He is unblocking, so his partner can win the queen. That means he started with three clubs, making West 2-4-2-5 instead of 2-4-3-4. East, however, will be assuming his partner is 2-5-2-4.

It also means West has the only club guard, and I have the matrix for a club-heart squeeze against him. If I can come down to a position like this with the lead in my hand:

	NORTH Robot ♠ -- ♥ A 8 ♦ -- ♣ J
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ -- ♥ J 2 ♦ 3 ♣ --

then I have him. But I don't see how I'm going to reach that position. East can destroy the matrix with a heart shift, and either opponent can force to me to ruff the club jack.

I cash the queen of diamonds--deuce--six--nine. Now the ace of diamonds. West plays the jack. The king and eight are now equals. I might as well unblock to keep maximum flexibility. I play the king; East plays the seven.

Diamonds were two-two, so it appears I'm right that West is 2-4-2-5. Is there any way to make this? Here is the current position with the lead in my hand:

	NORTH Robot ♠ 7 6 5 2 ♥ A 8 ♦ 8 ♣ J
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ Q J ♥ J 2 ♦ 10 5 4 3 ♣ --

Suppose I exit with a spade and the defense, fast asleep, cashes two spades and plays a third one. Now the squeeze is intact. That would be a poor defense, but it looks like my only chance.

I lead the queen of spades--nine--deuce--king. East shifts to the eight of clubs. Well, that kills the squeeze. But if West's last spade is the ace, I can now endplay him. I ruff and lead the jack of spades. West takes the ace and exits with the queen of hearts. Making three.

	NORTH Robot ♠ 7 6 5 2 ♥ A 8 6 ♦ K 8 6 ♣ J 6 2
WEST Robot ♠ A 9 ♥ K Q 10 3 ♦ J 2 ♣ Q 10 9 5 4		EAST Robot ♠ K 10 8 4 3 ♥ 9 7 4 ♦ 9 7 ♣ K 8 7
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ Q J ♥ J 5 2 ♦ A Q 10 5 4 3 ♣ A 3

I wasn't even thinking about an endplay. It just fell into my lap on the way to the squeeze. East wasn't thinking about it either. Stripping partner of his exit card was not the right idea. But East presumably still thought his partner had five hearts and that his play didn't matter. It's hard--for both humans and robots--to back off an assumption you've made earlier. But sometimes you need to. When you think your play doesn't matter is precisely when you need to pause and revisit your assumptions. 

Plus 110 is worth 100%. I was the only one to go plus. I suppose opening one notrump would have worked also. If I open one notrump, I would probably play it there. I have eight top tricks, so that's an easier way to go plus. But this way was more fun.

Free Weekly Instant Tournament - September 19 - Board 7

You can, if you prefer, watch Alex analyze this deal on Gargoyle Chronicle's YouTube channel:

Board 7
Both sides vulnerable

♠ A 7  ♥ K J 8 7 4  ♦ Q J 10 3  ♣ K Q

I could open with one notrump, but I don't like opening one notrump with a five-card major unless I have a rebid problem. With this hand, I have an easy two-diamond rebid, so I open with one heart. 

Partner bids one notrump, and I rebid two diamonds. Partner bids three hearts, showing an invitational raise with only three trumps. I bid four hearts. Everyone passes, and LHO leads the nine of diamonds.

	NORTH Robot ♠ Q J 6 ♥ 9 5 3 ♦ A K 7 6 ♣ J 10 9
	♦ 9
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ A 7 ♥ K J 8 7 4 ♦ Q J 10 3 ♣ K Q

West	North	East	South
Robot	Robot	Robot	Phillip
			1 ♥
Pass	1 NT	Pass	2 ♦
Pass	3 ♥	Pass	4 ♥
(All pass)

I have two aces to lose. I can lose a second heart trick or a spade trick, but not both. I'd like to set up clubs for a spade pitch, but the opponents are threatening a diamond ruff, so I can't do that right away. I have to get trumps going.

I win in dummy with the diamond ace. East plays the deuce. I must play an honor from my hand for two reasons: (1) It leaves open the possibility that I can reach dummy twice more in diamonds. And (2) if West's nine is a singleton, it leaves open the possibility that the lead was from a doubleton. (I could be 3-5-3-2 for my two-diamond rebid.)

What should East's deuce mean? I think it should be discouraging, suggesting either the ace or king of clubs. Since clubs is dummy's weaker suit, that's the obvious shift. With a club card, he discourages; without one, he encourages. If he encourages and West needs to find his entry (perhaps to get a diamond ruff), then West knows either it's in spades or East doesn't have one.

Some would play suit preference here, since West may be looking for your black-suit entry. But I think making ad hoc exceptions like that is a serious error. It gains nothing. Attitude works just fine, and always playing attitude rather than switching back and forth between attitude and suit preference based on some subjective criterion avoids misunderstandings. In this particular case, a low card suggests clubs whichever signal you intend, but you aren't always so lucky.

The robots, of course, understand none of this. The deuce means nothing at all.

I play the heart three from dummy. East plays the deuce. What's my best play?

West probably wouldn't have led a short suit with a singleton trump. And if he has four, it makes no difference what we do. So let's assume trumps are three-two. Let's also assume the diamond lead was a doubleton--not a singleton. We can revisit that assumption later.

Here, then, are the possible heart layouts:

Heart Layouts

West	East
♥ A Q	♥ 10 x x
♥ A 10	♥ Q x x
♥ Q 10	♥ A x x
♥ A x	♥ Q 10 x
♥ Q x	♥ A 10 x
♥ 10 x	♥ A Q x
♥ A Q x	♥ 10 x
♥ A 10 x	♥ Q x
♥ Q 10 x	♥ A x

That's a lot of possibilities to consider. Fortunately, we can simplify the analysis by canceling out holdings where the right play is simply a guess. For example, If West has ace-queen tight, my best play is the eight, which guarentees holding my losers to two. Similarly, if West has ace-ten tight, my best play is the jack. And if he has queen-ten tight, my best play is the king. In all those cases, the "wrong" play isn't necessarily fatal, but it does require me to guess right on the next round.

The upshot is, if West has two honors doubleton, my best play is toss up (if I have a three-faced coin). So the first three cases cancel out and I can ignore them.

Can we ignore any other layouts? If West has queen doubleton, it makes no difference what I do. I'm losing two tricks whether I play the king, jack, or eight. I also lose two tricks whatever I do if West has ace-queen third. So we can ignore those two cases as well. We have only four cases left:

Relevant Cases

West	East	King	Jack	Eight
♥ A x	♥ Q 10 x			Y
♥ 10 x	♥ A Q x		Y
♥ A 10 x	♥ Q x		Y	Y
♥ Q 10 x	♥ A x	Y
Total		1	2	2

The first two cases are the only layouts where I can hold my losers to one. If West holds ace doubleton, I must play the eight. If he holds ten doubleton, I must play the jack.

In the last two cases, I always have two natural losers. The trick to avoid losing a ruff as well. If West holds ace-ten third, I must play the jack or the eight. If I play the king, West can win, play his second diamond, then get a ruff when his partner wins the queen. If West holds queen-ten third, I must play the king. If I lose to West's ten or queen, he can play his second diamond and get a ruff when his partner wins the ace.

The bottom line: The jack or the eight is best in two cases each. The king is best in one. So my best play is a toss-up between the jack and the eight.

Is there any way to break the tie? Perhaps. Let's revisit our assumption that West has a doubleton diamond. If he has a singleton (or even if East thinks he has a singleton), then East might hop with ace-queen third to give him a ruff. That reduces the likelihood of one of the cases where the jack is right. So our best play is the eight.

I play the eight. West wins with the ten and cashes the ace of clubs on which East plays the three and I play the queen. So it was a stiff diamond and he's trying to find his partner's entry? No. He shifts to the four of diamonds now. Not sure why he cashed the club ace before doing that.

I win in dummy with the king. East plays the eight, and I continue to unblock by playing the jack. We've reached this position with the lead in dummy:

	NORTH Robot ♠ Q J 6 ♥ 9 5 ♦ 7 6 ♣ J 10
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ A 7 ♥ K J 8 4 ♦ Q 3 ♣ K

I play a heart--queen--king--ace. The opponents can't stop me from pitching my spade loser. Making four.

	NORTH Robot ♠ Q J 6 ♥ 9 5 3 ♦ A K 7 6 ♣ J 10 9
WEST Robot ♠ 9 3 2 ♥ A 10 6 ♦ 9 4 ♣ A 8 5 4 2		EAST Robot ♠ K 10 8 5 4 ♥ Q 2 ♦ 8 5 2 ♣ 7 6 3
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ A 7 ♥ K J 8 7 4 ♦ Q J 10 3 ♣ K Q

Plus 620 is worth 75%. We're sitting at 70% with one board left in the set.

What would have happened if I had opened with one notrump? Partner would raise to three, which makes on the normal club lead for 46%. But if West finds a spade lead, three notrump actually goes down--assuming that, when declarer plays a spade honor from dummy, East ducks his king to preserve communication.

Interesting that, even though partner is 4-3-3-3, the eight-card heart fit is better. Declarer's being 5-4-2-2 does make a difference, since it gives declarer two vulnerable suits. Switch one of South's diamonds for one of East's spades, and three notrump can't go down.