Jaz Hands -- Board 13

Board 13
Our side vulnerable

This week, we continue with Jazlene's Mixed Team match. Here is Alex's discussion of today's deal on YouTube:

♠ 6 2  ♥ A J 10 7 3  ♦ K 9 4  ♣ Q 10 8

Gideon opens one spade. Jazlene bids one notrump, semi-forcing, and Gideon passes, showing a balanced minimum. RHO apparently forgot to overcall, so she corrects her mistake now and balances with two clubs.

Some players would bid two hearts here, thinking they have to do something, because partner opened the bidding and they have ten HCP. But those high cards take tricks on defense as well as offense. Since we don't have a game, our objective is simply to go plus. So the question becomes, are we more likely to go plus defending two clubs or bidding two hearts?

As in most low-level competitive decisions, the Law of Total Tricks is your guide. If the opponents are in a seven-card club fit, they are probably going down, and defending is your safest route to a plus score. If they have an eight-card club fit, then you have eight hearts (since partner must be 5-3-3-2), and two hearts must be a heavy favorite to make. So you want to defend if partner has three clubs and to bid two hearts if he has a doubleton.

If you pass, you can accomplish that. If partner has three clubs, he will sell out. If he has two, he will reopen with a double, and you can bid two hearts.

Jazlene got the first part right. She passed. But then, when Gideon reopened with a double, she decided to go for blood and passed. That's unlikely to be the winning decision. If either two clubs or two hearts makes and the other contract goes down, it doesn't make difference whether we bid or defend. The large swings happen when either both contracts make or both go down. So your decision rests on which of those two scenarios you think is more likely. When they have eight clubs and we have eight hearts, surely both contracts making is more likely.

Jazlene says it was a state-of-the-match decision. "I wasn't getting rich playing two hearts." I assume by that she meant she was hoping to collect 500. It's true that if you do get lucky and collect 500, you pick up 8 imps. So, even though that's unlikely, it might be a worthwhile gamble if the risk were small. But if both two hearts and two clubs are making, you lose 7 imps by passing. Risking 7 imps to pick up 8 on a longshot doesn't seem like good odds to me, whatever the state of the match.

	NORTH Paulus ♠ K J 8 4 ♥ 9 8 6 2 ♦ Q 7 5 ♣ K 5
WEST Jazlene ♠ 6 2 ♥ A J 10 7 3 ♦ K 9 4 ♣ Q 10 8

West	North	East	South
Jazlene	Paulus	Gideon	Desy
		1 ♠	Pass
1 NT	Pass	Pass	2 ♣
Pass	Pass	Double	(All pass)

You lead the spade six. Dummy plays low, and partner's ten forces declarer's ace. We know a lot about the layout. Declarer must be 2-1-4-6 with 7 to 9 HCP. Unfortunately, declarer knows the shape also. So if she has ace sixth of clubs, she will cash two top clubs and work on diamonds, losing one heart, one clubs, and three diamonds. Making two.

Surprisingly, she doesn't cash clubs. She plays the deuce of diamonds from her hand at trick two. What's that about? Maybe she has the diamond ace instead of the club ace. Does that help? That gives us one heart, one diamond, and three clubs. Nope. Still not beating it.

Perhaps she's not so confident about the shape. Perhaps she thinks we wouldn't sit for the double without four clubs, making partner 5-3-4-1. That would make for a strange pass of one notrump. But somebody did something strange. So why not partner?

If declarer does have the ace of clubs and is determined to work on diamonds, perhaps we have a chance. Hop with the diamond king, cash the heart ace to avoid any accidents, and play another spade. If declarer wins and persists in diamonds, partner wins the jack and leads the spade queen. Declarer ruffs, we overruff and lead a diamond to partner for another spade. Down one. 

Would declarer continue diamonds in that scenario, or revert to cashing clubs? If she genuinely believes we are 2-5-2-4, perhaps. Who knows? In any event, it's the only chance I see. But it's not risk-free. If declarer has the diamond jack, hopping gives her an overtrick. But it may be worth the risk. If the opponents are plus 140 at the other table, we're already minus 8 imps. Dropping the overtricks costs only 3 more. If we beat this, we go plus 2 imps for a net gain of 10. I like those odds.

Jazlene doesn't go for it. She ducks the diamond, inserting the nine. That play I don't get. I know it's the right count card (playing upside-down). But if declarer has jack-eight, it costs a trick. Technical plays take precedence over signals.

Partner captures dummy's queen with the ace and shifts to the queen of hearts. Declarer follows low. Partner led the queen from king-queen third? I assume that was an attempt to show the diamond jack. Please don't do that, partner. 

Playing suit-preference games with honors make me nervous. Queen, then king, usually means "I have a doubleton. Please overtake." Yes, that can't be true here, so I should read the card as suit preference. But some day partner might not notice an ambiguity like that. I'm happier if he just plays his standard card and lets me work the hand out myself. If I need him to have the diamond jack, I'll play him for it.

What heart should we play? A discouraging heart here should show the spade lead was a singleton. So if we discourage, partner will shift to a spade, hoping to give us two ruffs. We don't want that, so we encourage with the deuce (upside down). Partner continues with the king of hearts. Declarer ruffs, plays a club to the king and another diamond. Yes. If partner has a stiff club and four diamonds, that's what she must do. She can eventually ruff her diamond loser in dummy as Jazlene ruffs in front of dummy with a natural trump trick.

Diamonds were three-three all along, so declarer loses three diamonds and a club. Making two.

	NORTH Paulus ♠ K J 8 4 ♥ 9 8 6 2 ♦ Q 7 5 ♣ K 5
WEST Jazlene ♠ 6 2 ♥ A J 10 7 3 ♦ K 9 4 ♣ Q 10 8		EAST Gideon ♠ Q 10 7 5 3 ♥ K Q 5 ♦ A J 6 ♣ J 7
	SOUTH Desy ♠ A 9 ♥ 4 ♦ 10 8 3 2 ♣ A 9 6 4 3 2

Jazlene might not have gotten rich in two hearts, but she would have earned a respectable income, since the opponents had an accident in the other room. North opened one spade and East bid two clubs, making the sensible decision to bid his hand immediately. Waiting to bid until the opponents have had a chance to exchange information is a poor strategy.

Over two clubs, South bid two hearts, presumably not game-forcing in competition. North raised to three hearts, and South went on to four.

Three hearts shows a dead minimum. With a little extra--or with any hand that holds a fourth trump--partner will raise to game. So with eights losers, including a likely wasted card in the opponent's suit, Della should have passed. The only reason I can think of for accepting was she thought three hearts was forcing. But I'm just guessing. Sometimes players who were weaned on two-over-one game forcing are surprisingly unfamiliar with standard methods.

So Jazlene lost only 2 imps on her gamble. Had she bid two hearts, she would have picked up 6.

Free Weekly Instant Tournament - February 6 - Board 1

Board 1
Neither side vulnerable

We're taking a break from Jaz's Mixed Team match to try an experiment in the Gargoyle Chronicles YouTube channel. Alex is streaming the play straight from BBO, pausing here and there to break things down. So you see it unfold in real time and then hop into analysis mode when it matters.

You can watch the video here. If you watch, let me know if you like the new format. I think it might make the distinction clearer between what actually happened at the table and the hypothetical lines I'm considering as I play.

No way to stream here. So we'll just continue as usual.

♠ Q 9 6 5  ♥ A Q 8  ♦ A K 8 3  ♣ A 5

Two passes to me. I open one diamond, planning to rebid two-notrump.

Partner bids one spade. So I forget about two notrump and raise to four spades instead. Everyone passes.

	NORTH Phillip ♠ Q 9 6 5 ♥ A Q 8 ♦ A K 8 3 ♣ A 5
	SOUTH Robot ♠ A 8 7 3 ♥ J 7 3 ♦ 7 6 ♣ K Q J 4

West	North	East	South
Robot	Phillip	Robot	Robot
			Pass
Pass	1 ♦	Pass	1 ♠
Pass	4 ♠	(All pass)

The opening lead is the four of diamonds. I win in dummy with the ace. East plays the five. The deuce of diamonds is missing, so I can't tell if the lead is from length or from shortness.

If I ruff two diamonds in my hand, I can pitch both of dummy's hearts on my clubs and avoid a heart finesse. Then I lose only whatever trump tricks I have to. Since West might be overruffing, ruffing two diamonds could be tough to pull off. Alternatively, I can ruff only one diamond, pitch a diamond and a heart on clubs, then take a heart finesse. So Plan A is two ruffs, no finesse; Plan B is one ruff plus a finesse. 

How do I tackle trumps? If I play ace and another, the defenders might be able to draw a third round and stop a second diamond ruff. And if East has four trumps to the king, they might even draw all my trumps and stop any ruffs at all. So it looks best to keep the spade ace in reserve--to keep control and flexibility.

So club to my king--three from East; deuce from West--and a trump. West rises with the king; East follows with the four. West continues with the deuce of diamonds, and East plays the queen. So West's original length is either two or five. From jack-ten-nine fifth he would lead the jack, so I'm assuming it's a doubleton.

Here is the current position:

	NORTH Phillip ♠ Q 9 6 ♥ A Q 8 ♦ 8 3 ♣ A
	SOUTH Robot ♠ A 8 7 ♥ J 7 3 ♦ -- ♣ Q J 4

At this point, ruffing two diamonds won't work, since West is overruffing. But if trumps are three-two, Plan B is still on: draw trumps, ruff one diamond, take two pitches, then try the heart finesse. That's either making either six or five, depending on the finesse.

The potential problem is four-one trumps. If someone has four, it's probably West, since he's short in diamonds. I want to keep the spade ace as an entry to my hand. So the right play is to cash the queen first. If East shows out, I can cash the club ace, play a spade to my ace, then cash clubs, pitching a diamond and a heart, coming down to this:

	NORTH Phillip ♠ 9 ♥ A Q ♦ 8 ♣ --
	SOUTH Robot ♠ 8 ♥ J 7 3 ♦ -- ♣ --

Now a heart finesse doesn't hurt. If it loses, East can't do any damage. I'll still ruff a diamond in hand and lose to the last trump. That's making five if the heart finesse works and four if it doesn't.

It's important to cash the spade queen first. If I lead a spade to the ace and East shows out, I've mangled my entries. If I cash the spade queen and club ace and ruff a diamond to my hand, West overruffs and plays a heart:

	NORTH Phillip ♠ 9 ♥ A Q 8 ♦ 8 ♣ --
	♥ 9
	SOUTH Robot ♠ -- ♥ J 7 3 ♦ -- ♣ Q J

Now if the heart finesse loses, East has a diamond to cash and I'm down.

Alright. Queen of spades--deuce--seven--ten. Spade to the ace. West pitches the seven of clubs. Club to the ace. West follows with the ten; East pitches the deuce of hearts.

Whoa! East had a stiff club? Good thing I didn't need to unblock the ace early.

Now I ruff a diamond, cash clubs, and take the heart finesse. It wins. Making six.

	NORTH Phillip ♠ Q 9 6 5 ♥ A Q 8 ♦ A K 8 3 ♣ A 5
WEST Robot ♠ K 10 ♥ K 10 9 ♦ 4 2 ♣ 10 9 8 7 6 2		EAST Robot ♠ J 4 2 ♥ 6 5 4 2 ♦ Q J 10 9 5 ♣ 3
	SOUTH Robot ♠ A 8 7 3 ♥ J 7 3 ♦ 7 6 ♣ K Q J 4

Plus four eighty is worth 93%. West can give partner a club ruff when he wins the spade king to hold me to five. And East can help by tossing the jack of spades under the king as an alarm-clock signal. But robots don't signal. And probably don't own alarm clocks.

Next week, we'll return to Jazlene's match. Four boards left.

Jaz Hands -- Board 12

Board 12
Both sides vulnerable

Today we discuss Board 12 of Jazlene's match. You can read about it here. But it would make Hope happy if you watched her discuss it on our YouTube channel:

♠ 6 5  ♥ K Q 9 4  ♦ 6 5 3  ♣ J 10 9 5

LHO opens one diamond, Precision. RHO bids one spade, and LHO bids two clubs, showing length in both minors but with no indication of which suit is longer. RHO bids two hearts, artificial and forcing, and LHO bids two notrump. RHO bids three spades, showing six, and LHO bids three notrump. 

Everyone passes and partner leads the seven of hearts.

	NORTH Desy ♠ A K 10 7 4 3 ♥ A J 3 ♦ K J 4 ♣ 2
	♥ 7	EAST Jazlene ♠ 6 5 ♥ K Q 9 4 ♦ 6 5 3 ♣ J 10 9 5

West	North	East	South
Gideon	Desy	Jazlene	Paulus
			1 ♦
Pass	1 ♠	Pass	2 ♣
Pass	2 ♥	Pass	2 NT
Pass	3 ♠	Pass	3 NT
(All pass)

Our agreements are second-highest from a bad suit, so it looks as if partner has either 107x or 87x. Declarer plays low from dummy.

What do we know about the layout?  With a doubleton spade, Paulus probably would have bid four spades, so his most likely shapes are 1-3-5-4 or 1-3-4-5. He has at least 11 HCP, which leaves partner with at most 7. Declarer has two spade tricks and a heart trick. He needs six more tricks to make this.

Let's give partner queen-jack of spades so declarer won't have a third spade trick. Partner can have one more card. The diamond ace won't be helpful. That means declarer must have ace-king-queen of clubs, which gives him six tricks in the minors. So let's give partner the ace or king clubs. Now declarer has solid diamonds and one club trick. Five diamonds would give him eight tricks, so I must assume he has only four.

Good. Now I have my construction. I'm playing declarer for 1-3-4-5 and I'm playing partner for the ace or king of clubs. I have no particular reason to believe that's the layout. But it's what I must assume if we're going to beat this. If I'm right, declarer must set up his ninth trick in the club suit. So I'm aiming for three hearts and two club tricks.

If partner has the heart ten, I can insert the nine, then return the king of hearts. On my construction, declarer is now down. But if declarer has the heart ten, that's his ninth trick. Can we beat this if I play the heart queen? Let's imagine this layout:

	NORTH Desy ♠ A K 10 7 4 3 ♥ A J 3 ♦ K J 4 ♣ 2
WEST Gideon ♠ Q J 9 2 ♥ 8 7 6 ♦ 9 8 7 ♣ A 7 4		EAST Jazlene ♠ 6 5 ♥ K Q 9 4 ♦ 6 5 3 ♣ J 10 9 5
	SOUTH Paulus ♠ 8 ♥ 10 5 2 ♦ A Q 10 2 ♣ K Q 8 6 3

Say I play the queen and shift to the jack of clubs. Declarer covers. Partner wins the ace and shifts back to hearts. That's good enough. I can set up my long heart, and I have an entry in clubs.

But there is a serious flaw in that analysis. Why would declarer ever cover? He's perfectly happy to lose club tricks to me. So he'll just duck. If I continue with the ten, he will duck again. Now he's cold as long as clubs break.

But why should he assume the club ace is offside? Isn't that double-dummy? No, it's not. He doesn't care who has the club ace. This line requires only that clubs break four-three. Then he loses three clubs and one heart.

So if I'm going to lead clubs, I must lead a low one. Defenders are often afraid to make such plays out of an unconscious, irrational fear that declarer can see their hand. But as a practical matter, leading low can't hurt. If partner has the eight, leading low works by force. And if declarer has the eight, he's not going to play it. He wants to keep partner off play, not let him in cheaply. So if he has ace-queen, he'll finesse. If he has king-queen, he'll play the king, hoping I have the ace. Then he can either duck a spade, hoping they're three-three, or cash his winners and play ace and heart, hoping I must give him a club trick in the end. 

But maybe I shouldn't lead clubs at all. If declarer has the hand I'm hoping for, there is no reason to lead them. Declarer must play clubs himself. My Third Rule of Defense is: Don't break a suit declarer must play himself.

Look what happens after a diamond shift. If declarer has king-queen of clubs, he can't make his contract even if he can see my hand. He wins in dummy and leads a club. I split. Declarer ducks, and I play another diamond. Declarer wins in hand leads the eight of clubs, keeping partner off play. I win and play a third diamond. Declarer is down. He can set up his clubs but has no way to reach them. 

Which is better, a low club or a diamond shift? I'm sure Lowenthal would lead a low club. He relished that kind of play. Personally, I like the elegance of a diamond shift. But one thing you can't do is lead the club jack. That can never beat the contract unless declarer is fast asleep.

Jazlene leads the club jack. Declarer takes the ace and leads the eight of spades. Partner plays the queen. Declarer cashes the ace and king of spades and plays a third spade. Partner wins and plays a heart. Declarer finesses, you win the king, and declarer claims ten tricks.

	NORTH Desy ♠ A K 10 7 4 3 ♥ A J 3 ♦ K J 4 ♣ 2
WEST Gideon ♠ Q J 9 2 ♥ 10 7 6 ♦ 10 9 7 ♣ 7 4 3		EAST Jazlene ♠ 6 5 ♥ K Q 9 4 ♦ 6 5 3 ♣ J 10 9 5
	SOUTH Paulus ♠ 8 ♥ 8 5 2 ♦ A Q 8 2 ♣ A K Q 8 6

That was a strange line of play. Declarer has ten top tricks. His best play for an eleventh is surely to duck the club jack. If clubs are four-three, he has the rest. If not, he has lots of squeeze chances. Playing for three-three spades instead is a weird choice.

Jazlene's teammates played three notrump from the other side and made five, so she picks up an imp.

Jaz Hands -- Board 11

Board 11
Neither side vulnerable

We continue our discussion of the Ong-Tan vs Noervita-Sugandi match from the SEABF Mixed Teams.

You can watch Alex's discussion of Board 11 on our YouTube channel:

♠ K 9 5 4  ♥ 10 7 5  ♦ Q J 10 7  ♣ K J

RHO opens one club, Precision, in fourth seat, nominally showing any hand with 16 HCP or more. Jazlese passes, and LHO bids two clubs, showing a positive response with five or more diamonds. Gideon doubles to show clubs, and RHO bids two hearts. LHO bids three clubs. RHO bids three spades. It's unclear what this bid shows. It could be a second suit or it could be a notrump probe. LHO bids four hearts, which ends the auction.

What should Jazlene lead? Partner stuck his neck out to make a dangerous double. So if a club lead is right and you don't lead one, partner may find it hard to forgive you. On the other hand, you are supposed to think. You know a lot more about the layout than partner did when he doubled. If spades is indeed a second suit, you know you have a stack. And you know dummy is hitting with a doubleton trump. A trump lead could be necessary to cut down on spade ruffs. So Jazlene chooses to lead the five of hearts.

I don't like it. I'm not talking about the heart lead itself. It's a reasonable decision. But I don't like the choice of the five. More on that later.

	NORTH Paulus ♠ J 6 ♥ J 6 ♦ A K 8 4 3 ♣ 7 6 5 3
WEST Jazlene ♠ K 9 5 4 ♥ 10 7 5 ♦ Q J 10 7 ♣ K J

West	North	East	South
Jazlene	Paulus	Gideon	Desy
Pass	Pass	Pass	1 ♣
Pass	2 ♣	Double	2 ♥
Pass	3 ♣	Pass	3 ♠
Pass	4 ♥	(All pass)

Declarer plays low from dummy, and partner wins the ace. What does that leave declarer? King-queen of hearts and ace-queen of spades. Declarer must have the club ace for his one club opener. So it doesn't appear we beating this. The best we can hope for is that partner has the spade ten and we take one heart and two spades.

Partner returns the four of hearts to dummy's jack. Declarer cashes the diamond ace, pitching a club, then leads the jack of spades, conceding a trick to your king. Making five.

	NORTH Paulus ♠ J 6 ♥ J 6 ♦ A K 8 4 3 ♣ 7 6 5 3
WEST Jazlene ♠ K 9 5 4 ♥ 10 7 5 ♦ Q J 10 7 ♣ K J		EAST Gideon ♠ 7 2 ♥ A 4 ♦ 9 6 5 2 ♣ Q 10 9 8 4
	SOUTH Desy ♠ A Q 10 8 3 ♥ K Q 9 8 3 2 ♦ -- ♣ A 2

A club lead would probably beat it. If declarer wins the first or second round of clubs and plays a heart to the jack, partner can win and play more clubs, promoting your ten of hearts. The only way declarer can succeed is by the unlikely play of leading the nine of hearts and floating it.

I don't subscribe to the theory that you should follow partner's lead suggestion just to keep him happy. That's not playing bridge. That's playing Keep Partner Happy. Besides, if I'm your partner, the way to keep me happy is to do what you think is right. But on this particular hand, perhaps the ten of hearts should persuade you that a club lead is right. This contract may be hard to beat if the heart ten doesn't score a trick, so maybe going after a trump promotion is the right idea. Another layout where a club lead is necessary is if partner has the club ace and the heart jack. Now three rounds of clubs promotes the heart ten.

Whatever the merits of a heart versus a club, I do think the five of hearts was a mistake. If you lead a heart, you should lead the seven. There are two reasons for this:

The first is conventional. When leading trumps, second highest from three is standard. This springs from the fact that you must lead low from a doubleton, retaining your higher spot for a possible overruff. David Burn says he once gave declarer a game by leading the five of trumps from five-three doubleton. Declarer's game going trick was a ruff with the four of trumps. Had David led the the three, declarer couldn't make it. That's an extreme example, but the principle is valid. If you lead a doubleton trump, you should lead low. It follows, then, that if you have three trumps and want partner to know that, you should lead second highest. If you lead middle, then play low, partner knows you have a third trump.

The second, and perhaps more important, reason is technical. Leading the higher of your two low spots may enable partner to retain a high trump over dummy, thus depriving declarer of an entry. This is particularly important if dummy has a doubleton trump. This deal was almost a classic example. Let's just switch a few cards around:

	NORTH Paulus ♠ 7 6 ♥ J 6 ♦ A K 8 4 3 ♣ 7 6 5 3
WEST Jazlene ♠ K 9 5 4 ♥ 10 7 5 ♦ Q J 10 7 ♣ K J		EAST Gideon ♠ J 2 ♥ Q 4 ♦ 9 6 5 2 ♣ A 10 9 8 4
	SOUTH Desy ♠ A Q 10 8 3 ♥ A K 9 8 3 2 ♦ -- ♣ Q 2

A club lead beats it, but you survive a trump lead--provided you lead the seven. If you lead low, dummy's six forces an entry. If you lead the seven, partner can withhold his queen. Declarer then has no way to get to dummy and must lose three spades and a club.

How about Gideon's actions? I wouldn't have doubled two clubs with Gideon's hand. For all you know clubs is opener's main suit. I don't relish playing three clubs redoubled if that's the case. But what can I say? He was right. A club lead beats their game, and if he doesn't double, there is no chance he's getting one.

I don't understand his trump play at trick two, however. I don't see where he thought four tricks were coming from. Couldn't partner have the club ace instead of the king? Perhaps that's even why she didn't lead one. If this is the layout:

	NORTH Paulus ♠ J 6 ♥ J 6 ♦ A K 8 4 3 ♣ 7 6 5 3
WEST Jazlene ♠ K 9 5 4 ♥ 10 7 5 ♦ Q J 10 7 ♣ A J		EAST Gideon ♠ 7 2 ♥ A 4 ♦ 9 6 5 2 ♣ Q 10 9 8 4
	SOUTH Desy ♠ A Q 10 8 3 ♥ K Q 9 8 3 2 ♦ -- ♣ K 2

a club shift at trick two beats it. Partner cashes two clubs, plays a second trump, then waits for her spade trick. Wouldn't that be embarrassing? You ask for a club lead. Partner ignores you and, instead, finds the only lead to beat it, then you let it score?

At the other table, their teammates bid naturally to four hearts and got the lead of the queen of diamonds. Declarer made five.