Board 11

Board 11
Neither side vulnerable

♠ K 9 ♥ 9 5 4 ♦ A 10 8 ♣ A K 9 6 4

In the old days, a weak notrump was two and a half to three honor tricks, and a strong notrump was three and a half to four honor tricks. Maybe it's the effect of reading Bridge Worlds from the 30s, but three and a half honor tricks and a five-card suit just looks to me like a strong notrump. So that's what I bid. Partner bids two diamonds (transfer); I bid two hearts. Partner bids two spades; I bid three hearts. Partner carries on to four. Everyone passes, and West leads the queen of clubs:

	NORTH ♠ A J 5 2 ♥ 10 8 7 6 3 ♦ K 7 5 ♣ 3
	SOUTH ♠ K 9 ♥ 9 5 4 ♦ A 10 8 ♣ A K 9 6 4

West		North		East		South
						1 NT
Pass		2 ♦1		Pass		2 ♥
Pass		2 ♠		Pass		3 ♥
Pass		4 ♥		(All Pass)

1Transfer

I doubt they'll reach game at the other table. I need to make this to justify my judgment on the opening bid. I'm going to need three-two trumps. That brings me up to eight tricks, so I need to find two more. There are essentially two possibilities: (Plan A) Ruff two spades in my hand (possibly only one if the queen drops). (Plan B) Ruff two clubs in dummy, establishing the fifth club, and take a spade finesse. Which plan is better?

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At a first approximation, Plan A requires 4-3 spades and the long heart in the hand with short spades. Since the long heart is a favorite to be in the hand with short spades, that adds up to a little more than half the 4-3 spade breaks. Plan B requires 4-3 clubs and a finesse, exactly half the 4-3 club breaks. So far, Plan A is slightly better.  (I am ignoring the fact that I may have communication problems. After ruffing two hearts and leading one round of trumps, for example, I may have difficulty getting back to dummy to play the second round.  But both plans have similar glitches, so for the purposes of comparing them, it's probably OK to ignore them.)

I now have to look at what extra chances each line might offer. Let's take Plan A first. Can I make it on this line if RHO has a doubleton spade and three hearts? If he has three honors, yes. But if he has the deuce of trumps, best defense will beat me. RHO ruffs the third spade high and leads the deuce of trumps to his partner to play another spade, which he again ruffs high. His partner still has a high trump for the setting trick. Of course, this won't be an easy defense to find.  Let's say that, as a practical matter, I'll make it a fair percentage of the time on that layout. Although I won't make it if the doubleton is on my left.

What extra chances does Plan B offer? If I ruff a club at trick two and play a heart, the opponents can simply draw three rounds of trumps, leaving me no extra chances. Again, this will be a hard defense to find. If declarer starts drawing trumps, it is usually not in the defense's best interest to help him do so. Suppose they do something else, say, play another club, which I ruff. I now have two options: (Plan B-1) Play a second trump. If the trumps are blocked and the defense can't play a third round, I no longer need the spade finesse. I can ruff a spade in my hand for the tenth trick. Or (Plan B-2) abandon trumps and ruff a spade. If the queen drops, I switch back to trumps. If it doesn't, I play the club king and pitch the spade, hoping the long trump is in the hand that's out of clubs. For now, I don't need to decide which plan to adopt. It is sufficient to see that I will have some extra chances if the defense doesn't draw three rounds of trumps. Do I have chances against 5-2 clubs? Suppose I ruff a club and play a trump. Someone wins and plays a third club, which his partner ruffs high. As long as this is the long trump hand, I still have excellent chances. I can draw the remaining trumps in one round, then take the spade finesse and ruff the last spade. Or I can try to ruff out the queen of spades and fall back on a squeeze of some kind if that fails. Again, I needn't worry about the details yet. The fact remains, I have chances against a 5-2 club break. And, unlike Plan A, I have chances against a doubleton in either hand. All in all, Plan B looks superior.

I play the three of clubs from dummy, East plays the eight, and I win with the ace (the card I'm known to hold). I play the four of clubs--five--three of hearts--deuce of clubs. Now six of hearts--ace--four--deuce, and the moment of truth has arrived. Will East work out to continue trumps? He doesn't. He plays the seven of clubs--six--jack--seven of hearts. The opponents still have the ten of clubs, and, given East's eight of clubs at trick one, it appears to be East who holds it.

Now, do I adopt Plan B-1 or Plan B-2? For trumps to be blocked, East would have to have started with ace-queen-jack or to have hopped with the ace from ace-king doubleton. Plan B-2 would seem to offer better chances. I play the deuce of spades from dummy--three--king--ten. That's encouraging. I play another spade--queen--ace--four. With the spade jack and my fifth club, I now have ten tricks. I continue trumps, and there is nothing the opponents can do. Making four.

	NORTH ♠ A J 5 2 ♥ 10 8 7 6 3 ♦ K 7 5 ♣ 3
WEST ♠ Q 10 ♥ K J 2 ♦ J 9 4 3 2 ♣ Q J 5		EAST ♠ 8 7 5 4 3 ♥ A Q ♦ Q 6 ♣ 10 8 7 2
	SOUTH ♠ K 9 ♥ 9 5 4 ♦ A 10 8 ♣ A K 9 6 4

Plan A would not have worked. This looks like a pretty good result. My opponents might not reach game or might go down if they do. I predict a seven imp win. Shows what I know. At the other table, South opens one club and, over partner's one heart, rebids one notrump. When his partner rebids two hearts, he raises to three. I don't care for this raise. Being aggressive about accepting an invitation is OK. But being aggressive about issuing an invitation is dangerous. You have two ways to lose: Partner can accept and go down, or he can refuse and go down when he was making a level lower. Since partner hasn't shown anything beyond a minimum response, this invitation seems way too dangerous to me. Again, shows what I know. Three hearts works spectacularly well. After two passes, East balances with three spades! North doubles, and this goes down four, -800 for our side. East's flight of fancy flips 16 imps, losing nine instead of winning seven.

Jack has a setting for how aggressive he should be in competitive auctions. It's set to three (most aggressive) on a scale of one to three. I ratchet it back to two, hoping to avoid silly results like this in the future. I suppose it's to my advantage to leave it at three. I have four Jack opponents and only three Jack teammates, so I should come out ahead in the long run. But results like this are annoying, even if you're on the winning side. Just to check, I rebid the deal with the new setting. This time, East sells to three hearts. My teammate is duly chastised.

Me +420
Jack +800

Score on board 11: -9 IMPs
Total: +31 IMPs