Board 15

As you will soon see, I made two errors on this deal. The first one no one would notice unless he was reading my mind, since the error took place in my head. I didn't know what was going on, and I should have. The second one was more manifest. But, as usual in this match, I'm lucky. The error gains an imp.

Board 15
Our side vulnerable

♠ K 8 7 ♥ Q 7 6 2 ♦ Q 10 7 2 ♣ 9 5

Partner opens one spade in third seat, and RHO doubles. I bid two spades, LHO bids three diamonds, and partner bids three spades, which ends the auction.

	NORTH ♠ K 8 7 ♥ Q 7 6 2 ♦ Q 10 7 2 ♣ 9 5
	SOUTH ♠ A Q J 10 6 2 ♥ J 8 4 ♦ J ♣ A J 2

West		North		East		South
		Pass		Pass		1 ♠
Double		2 ♠		3 ♦		3 ♠
(All Pass)

West leads the ace of hearts, playing ace from ace-king. He doesn't have to have the king, but I'm going to assume he does. He probably would have led his partner's suit otherwise. It appears I'm about to go down, losing two hearts, a ruff, and a trick in each minor. My best chance is to dissuade West from continuing hearts. What card do you play to make it plausible that East began with three hearts?

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It depends on the card East plays. If he plays a card between the eight and the four, you must play the four. You want West to believe that his partner is playing low from jack-eight third. If you play the jack or the eight yourself, West will know that isn't possible. If East plays the three, however, (presumably a singleton) you can play any one of your three cards. You should choose the card you think West least expects you play from jack third. If you have no idea what that card that is and don't want to get involved in guessing games, you can choose your card at random. That way, you're guaranteed to play the card your opponent least expects one third of the time. My judgment is that my current opponent will not expect me to play the jack from jack third, so, if East plays the three, that's what I intend to do. Obviously, I must have thought about this before playing a card from dummy.

I play the deuce from dummy, East does play the three, and I play the jack. West shifts to the six of diamonds. Aha! Things are looking up. How are diamonds splitting?

----

I assume West has only three diamonds. If he had four, he would know I had at most one, so he would be less inclined to believe I had a singleton heart. That gives him either 2-5-3-3 or 1-5-3-4, and gives East either 2-1-5-5 or 3-1-5-4. The latter seems more likely. It makes West's decision to double rather than to bid two hearts more palatable. Also, East might have doubled two spades with equal length in the minors. Since there is no rush to lead diamonds, it also seems likely that West has only one club honor. With king-queen of clubs, he might have shifted to a club rather than start me down the path to setting up a diamond trick. That gives West ace-king of hearts, the king of diamonds, and the king or queen of clubs, and it gives East the ace of diamonds and the other club honor. All very reasonable.

East wins with the ace of diamonds and returns the five. This is strange. I was expecting a club in an attempt to put his partner on play for a heart ruff. I can't think of a reason why a diamond continuation would look right to him. I can't afford to pitch a club on this. West will win and will surely work out now to give his partner a heart ruff. So I ruff with the six, and West follows with the eight. If West began with king-eight-six, that means East returned the five with nine-five-four-three remaining. Perhaps he was returning a count card? I'm not sure how Jack leads in the middle of the hand, but there is nothing sufficiently suspicious about this carding to get me to change my mind about the lie of the diamond suit. It still looks as though West began with king third.

Where is my ninth trick going to come from? If trumps are unexpectedly two-two, I can ruff a club in dummy. Failing that, I can try to ruff out the king of diamonds. I lead the ten of spades to the king for no particular reason. If the nine drops, I'll worry later about whether I can make use of the extra entry. It doesn't. West plays the three; East, the four. I ruff a diamond with the jack of spades. East plays the three; West, the king, as expected. Now I'm home. Somewhat surprisingly, everyone follows to the ace of spades. So the opponents were 2-5-3-3 opposite 2-1-5-5 after all?

Now I can make three two different ways. I can ruff a club or I can pitch a club on the queen of diamonds. Can I make four? Suppose I lead a heart, and West hops and foolishly plays a low club. I have the matrix for a heart club squeeze, but I can't execute it. If I lead a trump to dummy to cash the diamond, I can't return to my hand to cash the rest of the trumps. So apparently three is the best I can do. I lead the eight of hearts, West hops with the king, and East follows with the five. What's this? He didn't play high from his doubleton at trick one? West continues with the nine of hearts--queen--ten. I see. I didn't even consider that West started with ace-king third. Ace-king third seems like a poor choice on this auction, since either dummy or I rate to have four hearts.

The long heart and the queen of diamonds allow me to pitch both my clubs, and I make four:

	NORTH ♠ K 8 7 ♥ Q 7 6 2 ♦ Q 10 7 2 ♣ 9 5
WEST ♠ 5 3 ♥ A K 9 ♦ K 8 6 ♣ K 10 8 6 3		EAST ♠ 9 4 ♥ 10 5 3 ♦ A 9 5 4 3 ♣ Q 7 4
	SOUTH ♠ A Q J 10 6 2 ♥ J 8 4 ♦ J ♣ A J 2

I began the play on this deal by making a faulty assumption: that West would not lead a heart from ace-king third on this auction. This assumption was so automatic that I didn't even notice I was making it. While I think the assumption is reasonable, I at least should have been aware of it. I might then have been able to discard the assumption once East played the second round of diamonds. I did think that the diamond continuation was strange. If East had a singleton heart, why wasn't he trying to put his partner in with a club to get his ruff? I asked myself that question. But the obvious answer--that he didn't have a singleton heart--escaped me. That was my first error.

The second error was ruffing the diamond continuation. Why commit myself to West's having king-third of diamonds? Why not just pitch a heart? West can win and cash his heart, but the defense is now out of tricks. I have two diamond winners to pitch my clubs on. This works not only when West has king-fourth of diamonds but also when East has the king and has made a tricky play. In that case, after winning this trick in dummy, I would be able to duck a club and ruff one. Pitching a heart isn't quite a sure-trick line. If East is 4-1-4-4, West can win the diamond, cash his heart, letting East pitch a diamond, then shift to a club. But my line wouldn't work in that case either.

Why did I make this error? I thought briefly about pitching a club on the second diamond and saw that didn't work. I never even considered pitching a heart. Probably because the heart was a winner. If pitching a loser isn't going to work, why should I even think about pitching a winner? The reason pitching a winner works is that I gain two winners in return, while eliminating the threat of a heart ruff. By making a note of the principle involved, I hope to avoid that particular blind spot in the future.

In the replay, the auction and lead were the same. South played the four of hearts at trick one, and West continued with king and a heart. Declarer drew two rounds of trumps ending in dummy. This was a nice play. If trumps don't break, he can lead the queen of hearts and pitch a diamond. If no one ruffs, that's his ninth trick. If someone does ruff, he can ruff a club to dummy for his ninth trick. Once trumps were two-two, he could do both and score an overtrick. Making four for a push. And an embarrassing push. If I had played correctly, I would have made only three and lost an imp.

Me +170
Jack +170

Score on board 15: 0 IMPs
Total: +36 IMPs