Board 126

Board 126
Neither vulnerable

♠ Q 10 3 ♥ A J 10 8 ♦ A 8 ♣ A J 9 8

RHO passes. I open one heart, and partner responds one notrump. With a balanced 15-count in this system, you should pass one notrump. With a balanced 17-count, you should raise to two notrump. A balanced 16-count is awkward. If you pass, you could miss a game. If you bid, you could be too high. You just have to use your judgment. With this particular 16-count, holding only one card lower than an eight, such judgment is easy. I raise to two notrump. Partner carries on to three, and RHO leads the seven of spades.

	NORTH ♠ Q 10 3 ♥ A J 10 8 ♦ A 8 ♣ A J 9 8
	SOUTH ♠ K 5 ♥ K 3 2 ♦ J 7 2 ♣ Q 7 4 3 2

West	North	East	South
Pass	1 ♥	Pass	1 NT
Pass	2 NT	Pass	3 NT
(All pass)

I can take four clubs, two hearts, a spade, and a diamond--eight tricks. I have lots of prospects for a ninth trick. But if they find a diamond shift the first time I lose the lead, I may not be able to give up the lead a second time.

My first problem is how to handle the spades. I'd like to win this trick in my hand to give myself a chance to pick up five club tricks. If I can run the clubs, my problems are over. So it is tempting to play low from dummy, intending to win with the king and lead a low club to the jack. If West has king doubleton, I'm home. And if he has king third, giving East a singleton ten, I'm home. (Jack isn't good enough to duck king-ten doubleton offside. So I can confidently "waste" my king of hearts entry to repeat the club finesse.)

But what happens if West has king-ten third? Now I've given myself a problem. When West wins with the club king, he can continue spades. If West has five spades to one honor and I misguess, I'm down.

Perhaps I do better to play the spade ten at trick one. If the seven is fourth best, West must have either the ace or jack (or both), so the ten will guarantee they can't run spades. But, if the ten holds, I will have to start clubs from dummy. Unless the king is singleton, I will have to lose a club trick. It shouldn't be hard for the defense to find a diamond shift, after which I will have to guess the queen of hearts to make it.

I decide to go with second line for several reasons: (1) The odds are better than even money that I can't pick up clubs anyway. It seems wrong to assume an unnecessary risk in the hope that I can. (2) Each line risks my having to guess a suit, but the first line requires me make an early guess while the second line requires me to make a late guess. If I have to guess something, I'd rather guess when I have more information. (3) If I play the ten and it's covered, I've transposed to the first line with the extra vig that spades have already been guessed. Finessing the spade ten, paradoxically, gives me a problem only when the finesse wins. (Yes, I know. If East has the jack and I can pick up the clubs, he is better off ducking the ten. But he can't possibly work that out.  Ducking gains only when West has the club king. And if West has the club king, then from East's point of view, he might just as easily have the spade king instead. In that case, ducking the ten would be a spectacular failure.)

I have to say that I'm not entirely sure the ten is the right play.  For one thing, I might not even have a spade guess.  Sometimes West has both spade honors.  I could make some attempt to work out the odds of each play.  But it's a complicated problem.  For starters, I would have to make some assumptions about the chance of West's having only four spades and about my chance of guessing hearts late in the play.  It's certainly too complicated to work out at the table, though I might give it shot later on to confirm my judgment.

I play the ten, and East plays the deuce. It didn't think of this earlier. But it occurs to me now that I have the option of changing my mind and overtaking with the king. East might duck with the ace. But how likely is it that he would duck and discourage with the ace? If he does that, how will his partner ever know the suit is running?

Of course, if East has enough high cards that he knows his partner can't have an entry, he has no reason to tell his partner the suit is running. He can just continue spades himself when he wins the club king and surprise his partner. But Jack isn't that deep. His trick one attitude signals have been quite reliable (assuming "attitude" is determined simplistically by whether or not you have an honor in the suit led).  I decide to take Jack at his word.  I overtake with the king and play the club three--six--jack--five. I then cash the club ace, dropping the ten and king.

Great! I've made it.  Now I'm playing for overtricks.  Since the match is close, overtricks could be important. I play the nine of clubs. East pitches the three of diamonds; West, the four of hearts. I overtake the eight of clubs with the queen. East pitches the four of diamonds; West, the four of spades.

I can safely lead a heart to the jack. It's probably best to do that now. If I cash the last club and pitch a diamond from dummy, it will be easy for East to find a diamond shift if the heart finesse loses. I play the deuce of hearts--seven--jack--queen. East shifts to the king of diamonds, killing my chance for a second overtrick. Making four.

	NORTH ♠ Q 10 3 ♥ A J 10 8 ♦ A 8 ♣ A J 9 8
WEST ♠ A J 8 7 4 ♥ 7 6 4 ♦ 10 6 5 ♣ K 6		EAST ♠ 9 6 2 ♥ Q 9 5 ♦ K Q 9 4 3 ♣ 10 5
	SOUTH ♠ K 5 ♥ K 3 2 ♦ J 7 2 ♣ Q 7 4 3 2

I am convinced now that the spade ten was the right play. The wrinkle of being able to overtake the spade ten with the king makes it clearly superior to playing low. Even if I intend always to overtake, the only thing I lose by playing the ten is that I commit myself to a particular guess in the spade suit.  Since I'm not going to receive any useful information before I make that guess, there is no reason not to commit myself now.  So playing the ten and deciding whether to overtake or not based on East's spade spot (and possibly on table feel for those of you who have such a thing) must be right.

At the other table, North opens one notrump. South chooses to invite via Stayman and two notrump (since an immediate two notrump would have been a transfer). Once again, Jack fails to lead fourth from longest and strongest. This time he's right. A low diamond lead would scare declarer, but he would have to make a series of strange decisions to go down.

East leads the six of spades--five--jack--queen. Declarer cashes the club ace and plays a second club to West's king. West should shift to diamonds now, forcing declarer to guess the hearts. There is no holding partner would have led the spade six from where spades could be running. (Partner did well not to lead the deuce.) Nonetheless, West cashes the spade ace--three--deuce--king. Now he shifts to a diamond. Declarer hops and cashes out to make three. Who knows whether he would have gone down after a diamond shift or not? At least we pick up another imp, tieing the match.

The vu-graph crowd is going wild.

Me: +430
Jack: +400

Score on Board 126: +1 IMPs
Total: 0 IMPs