Match 2 - Board 59

Board 59

Neither vulnerable

As Brooks Hughes used to say before the antepenultimate round, "Turning for home now. Three rounds to go." I never did understand what that meant.

♠ A K J ♥ Q 7 3 ♦ 10 7 5 3 2 ♣ 9 5

I pass. Partner opens one notrump (12-14) in third seat and buys it. West leads the king of clubs.

	NORTH ♠ A K J ♥ Q 7 3 ♦ 10 7 5 3 2 ♣ 9 5
	SOUTH ♠ Q 5 3 ♥ K 9 ♦ K 9 8 6 4 ♣ A 6 3

West	North	East	South
	Pass	Pass	1 NT
(All pass)

Some pairs, perhaps many, will play this hand in a diamond partscore after a one diamond opening. If they can avoid the loss of two trump tricks, they will score 130. If not, they will score 110. This is something I will need to keep in mind as I plan the play.

I play the five of clubs from dummy, and East plays the eight. I discourage with the three. West continues with the seven of clubs, and East plays the jack. East seems to have king-queen-ten-seven fourth. The seven, his original fourth best, is the standard card to lead from either four or five clubs, so, in theory, I can't tell how clubs are splitting. But I have observed that Jack doesn't seem to know this. From a five-card suit, he would lead his lowest club at trick two, so I am fairly confident that clubs are four-four. That means there is no reason to duck. (This is why paying attention to your opponents' quirks comes in handy. In general, I like to zone out when I'm dummy to save mental energy. But, in a long knockout match, I try not to do that. I watch the opponents' carding carefully, since knowing their tendencies may help me later as declarer.)

If there were no danger in ducking, I would duck anyway, just in case I'm wrong. But there is a danger. East may find a heart shift. There are a number of hands where a heart shift, while not clear cut, will at least look attractive. For example:

♠ x x ♥ A J 10 x x ♦ Q J ♣ J 8 4 2

A club continuation sets up only one more club trick. A heart shift might actually beat the contract if you catch  declarer with king doubleton and partner with a diamond entry.

♠ x x x x ♥ J 10 x x ♦ A ♣ J 8 4 2

If partner has ace fourth or even ace-nine third of hearts, a heart shift sets up more tricks than a club continuation. I don't know whether Jack would play a heart from either of these hands or not. But he might. And I am confident enough that clubs are four-four that I don't want to risk it. I play the club ace.

I have little chance to go plus 150. If I am to beat the pairs playing in a diamond partscore, I must hope they are scoring 110, which means the ace of diamonds must be offside. Perhaps I should lead a spade to dummy, lead a diamond toward my hand, and, if East plays the queen or jack, duck it, hoping to find a singleton ace offside. If I'm right about four-four clubs, I will then be plus 120, beating all the diamond partscores (unless they magically play diamonds this way as well).

Is this actually the right play? Let me think about it more carefully. If West has a doubleton diamond, my play will not matter. If he has a singleton, it will be the ace one third of the time.

First, let's consider how I do against a pair who also plays a notrump partscore. If I play low and I'm wrong, I will cost myself a matchpoint. (It doesn't matter how the other declarer plays. If he ducks also, my ducking will tie the board instead of win it. If he plays the king, my ducking will lose the board instead of tie it.) Similarly, if I play low and I'm right, I will gain a matchpoint. Thus I will lose a matchpoint two thirds of the time and gain a matchpoint one third of a time for a net expected loss of one third of a matchpoint.

How do I do against a pair in a diamond partscore? If I play low and I'm right, I convert a loss to a win and gain two matchpoints. If I play low and I'm wrong, it makes no difference; I was losing the board anyway. I gain two matchpoints a third of the time. Thus my net gain is two thirds of a matchpoint.

My expectation from ducking, then, is two thirds times x minus one third times y, where x is the percentage of pairs in diamonds and y is the percentage of pairs in notrump. In other words, if there are twice as many pairs playing notrump as playing diamonds, ducking will break even. If there are fewer people playing notrump, ducking shows a net gain. I think it's safe to say that notrump partscores will not be twice as popular as diamond partscores, so my percentage play is to duck.

I lead the five of spades--deuce--king--seven. I play a diamond from dummy. East plays the ace. So much for my plan. I play the six, and West drops the jack. East shifts to the four of clubs--six--ten. I pitch a diamond from dummy. West, instead of cashing his last club, shifts to the six of spades. What's that all about? One thing for sure. West has the heart ace. He doesn't know who has the thirteenth club. So he would never decline to cash the club queen unless he knew he had an entry. I can cash out for plus 120, but that will surely be a below-average score. If I can sneak a heart through him, I'll make the 150 I need. I play the spade jack--eight--queen. Now the nine of hearts. West plays the jack. I play the queen. It holds, and I claim all but one of the remaining tricks. Making three.

	NORTH ♠ A K J ♥ Q 7 3 ♦ 10 7 5 3 2 ♣ 9 5
WEST ♠ 9 6 4 2 ♥ A J 8 4 ♦ J ♣ K Q 10 7		EAST ♠ 10 8 7 ♥ 10 6 5 2 ♦ A Q ♣ J 8 4 2
	SOUTH ♠ Q 5 3 ♥ K 9 ♦ K 9 8 6 4 ♣ A 6 3

I'm still not sure what the spade shift was all about. But I'm not complaining.

To my surprise, my decision to try to duck out the singleton ace of diamonds was wrong. I was right that the field was in diamonds. In fact, every pair but us played in three diamonds. But I was wrong about how many tricks they took. Only one pair was plus 130, so plus 120 would have been a fine score.

I was curious how so many declarers were holding themselves to nine tricks. So I had Jack bid and play the deal himself, playing Eastern Science Fiction. The auction went one diamond--double--three diamonds--all pass. West led the club king. South took his ace and played a low diamond from his hand at trick two.

Five out of six declarers played the hand this way? For this line to make sense, declarer must think West is better than two-to-one to have the diamond ace as a result of his double. I don't think that's true, especially given he has the king and queen of clubs. And, even if it were true, why lead low from your hand? How can it be wrong to lead up the king just to give East a chance to hop? I'm not impressed with Jack's declarer play on this deal.

Score on Board 59: +150 (12 MP)
Total: 468 (66.1%)

Current rank: 1st