Board 6
Opponents vulnerable
Opponents vulnerable
| ♠ 8 2 ♥ A 7 5 ♦ A 3 2 ♣ A 10 8 7 4 |
RHO opens one spade, I double, and LHO bids four spades, which ends the auction.
If partner has a trump trick or a cashing king, it won't matter what I lead. But what if he doesn't? Do I need to develop a fourth trick before declarer can take discards, or should I defend passively (i.e., lead a trump) and force declarer to break the side suits herself? The more balanced dummy is, the more likely that it is right to defend passively. But dummy doesn't rate to be balanced. One of the problems of playing against Jack is you can't ask about alternative auctions. But surely LHO has some way to distinguish a raise to four spades on power from a raise on playing tricks. Dummy rates to have some pattern like 4-3-5-1 or 4-5-3-1, in which case I may need to attack dummy's three-card suit on opening lead. If I can find partner with the queen behind dummy's king or with queen-jack in front of declarer's king, I will have established the setting trick.
Whichever red suit I lead, it is probably better to lead low rather than the ace. Not for deceptive reasons but to retain a tenace in case declarer has king-queen small or king-jack small. The danger in leading low is that partner might have the king and decide not play it. But that's less of a concern at IMPs. If partner can't see a route to four tricks without assuming I have underled an ace, he will make that assumption.
Which red suit should I lead? Hearts is marginally safer, because I would be leading a five rather than a deuce. The higher the spot, the more likely it is partner will be able to tell I've underled the ace, since he knows I must have two cards higher than the one I led. While this is unlikely to matter, it's the only reason I think of to prefer one suit over the other, so I lead the five of hearts.
| NORTH
Kate ♠ Q J 10 9 ♥ Q 10 9 4 ♦ 9 6 ♣ K J 2 |
||
| WEST
Phillip ♠ 8 2 ♥ A 7 5 ♦ A 3 2 ♣ A 10 8 7 4 |
| West | North | East | South |
| Phillip | Kate | Jack | Stella |
| 1 ♠ | |||
| Double | 4 ♠ | (All pass) |
Okay. She got me. Why she didn't make a limit raise with this hand I can't imagine. If declarer has king third of hearts and partner's jack of hearts was going to be the setting trick, I may have blown it.
To my relief, declarer plays the queen from dummy. Partner plays the deuce; declarer, the jack. Partner's deuce should be attitude, suggesting that I make the "obvious shift" (to diamonds) when I get in. A high heart would be encouraging, not because partner has any particular reason to want me to continue hearts but because he has nothing in diamonds to make a shift by me worthwhile. Since we lack the tempi to develop tricks, partner has no reason to suggest a diamond shift except to cash out, so he should have the king.
That's what partner's deuce should mean. But Jack does not card this way. His deuce simply indicates he doesn't have a heart honor, as if I didn't already know that already.
What can I make of declarer's play of the heart queen? This would be a strange play holding king-jack third of hearts, since the ten is more flexible. The likeliest explanation is that she has king-jack doubleton and wants to win this trick in dummy, probably to take a spade finesee. Even so, the play is unusual. Declarer would normally expect the heart ace to be on her right, in which case the way to reach dummy in this suit is to play low. RHO will surely take the ace (since, for all he knows, his partner has the king), at which point she can drop the king. The fact that declarer chose to play the queen means she thinks the ace is more likely to be on her left than on her right. Since underleading an ace is rare, she must be fairly confident from the auction that partner can't have an ace (in addition to the spade king, which she must assume he has). That's too bad. It means if she is missing the club queen, there is no chance she will misguess that suit. (Although any chance of that happening probably vanished with my opening lead. I would not have led a heart from the ace holding a queen-high club suit.)
What are our prospects for beating this? Declarer has five spade tricks, three hearts tricks, and at least one club trick. Nine tricks in all. If she has the club queen, she has two club tricks, bringing her up to ten. In that case, I must hope partner has the diamond king, allowing us to cash four tricks first. If she does not have the club queen, however, she doesn't have ten tricks. So it would be a mistake to break diamonds. She must break the suit herself, and queen-jack of diamonds in partner's hand will be enough to beat the contract.
Declarer leads the nine of spades--seven--three--deuce, then the ten of spades--king--ace--eight. I expect to see the king of hearts, but declarer leads the three of clubs instead. One thing for sure. Declarer doesn't have three small clubs, or she wouldn't be playing clubs before hearts. Either she has a singleton or two small or she has the queen. Since I've already decided declarer is not going to misguess this suit, I can take my time deciding what to do.
Playing with a reliable partner, my correct play is to hop (in case she has a singleton) and cash the heart ace. It should be clear to partner that count is immaterial at this point. The only thing that matters is where his minor-suit honors are, so he should give a suit-preference signal: high with the diamond king, low with the club queen. (I'm not sure what he would play with neither of those cards, but it doesn't matter. If he has neither card, we aren't beating this contract anyway.) If he plays high, I play ace and a diamond. If he plays low, I defend passively. I can't count on Jack to signal that way however, so I must try something else.
I essentially have two choices (1) Hop and guess what to do next. (2) Duck to get more information.
If I choose (1), my percentage guess is to try to cash out. It's better to play partner for one card (the diamond king) than to play him for three (the club queen and the queen-jack of diamonds).
(2) loses immediately if declarer has a singleton club. But if she doesn't, I am guaranteed to get the hand right. When declarer knocks out my heart ace, I cash the club ace. If partner echos in clubs, I know declarer has queen third and I play ace and a diamond. If partner plays up the line, then I know declarer has a doubleton, and I get to see whether she has the queen or not. If so, I shift to ace and a diamond. If not, I know she has only nine tricks, and I defend passively.
(1) is superior if declarer has a singleton club and partner has the diamond king. (2) is superior if declarer has two small clubs and partner has queen-jack of diamonds. In all other cases, it doesn't matter which line I choose. Which scenario is more likely? Here is declarer's hand in each case:
| (1) ♠ A x x x x ♥ K J ♦ Q J x x x ♣ x |
| (2) ♠ A x x x x ♥ K J ♦ K x x x ♣ x x |
A four-two split is more likely than a five-one split, so (2) is more likely even before taking the high-card constraints into account. Accordingly, I duck. Declarer rises with the king, and partner follows with the five. That's a relief. Declarer didn't have a singleton. She continues with the deuce of clubs from dummy--nine--six. I play the seven. Partner shifts to the eight of diamonds, and declarer plays the queen. That doesn't look good. Partner wouldn't be leading the eight if he had the king. I take my red aces and play another diamond. Declarer claims. Making four for a push.
| NORTH
Kate ♠ Q J 10 9 ♥ Q 10 9 4 ♦ 9 6 ♣ K J 2 |
||
| WEST
Phillip ♠ 8 2 ♥ A 7 5 ♦ A 3 2 ♣ A 10 8 7 4 |
EAST
Jack ♠ K 7 ♥ 8 6 3 2 ♦ 10 8 7 4 ♣ Q 9 5 | |
| SOUTH
Stella ♠ A 6 5 4 3 ♥ K J ♦ K Q J 5 ♣ 6 3 |
Table 1: -620
Table 2: +620
Result on Board 6: 0 imps
Total: +18 imps
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