Event 3 - Match 5 - Board 2

Board 2
Our side vulnerable

♠ K Q 9 5 3 ♥ A Q 7 4 ♦ 3 ♣ Q 10 5

Pass on my right. I open one spade. Partner raises to three spades, and I go on to four. West leads the five of hearts (fourth best).

	NORTH Jack ♠ 8 7 4 ♥ J 9 8 2 ♦ A J 4 2 ♣ K 4
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ K Q 9 5 3 ♥ A Q 7 4 ♦ 3 ♣ Q 10 5

West	North	East	South
Sam	Jack	Stephen	Phillip
		Pass	1 ♠
Pass	3 ♠	Pass	4 ♠
(All pass)

Three spades? With only three trumps? If partner judges his hand to be worth a limit raise, he should temporize with two diamonds. But this hand, with nine losers, looks like a two spade bid to me.

To make this I need to avoid a heart loser or to avoid a second spade loser. I play the heart nine--ten--queen. I still don't know if I have a heart loser or not. West might have king-six-five, or he might have a singleton five or five-three.

I need to set up a club ruff before playing trumps. So I play the five of clubs--deuce--king--ace. East shifts to the six of spades. East would surely have continued hearts, trying for a ruff, if he began with ten-three. So the heart king must be onside. I play the spade queen--ace--four. West plays the three of hearts--nine--six--four.

Apparently East doesn't have the jack of spades. Well, that may be overstating it. Sherlock Holmes always got away with such bold pronouncements. But perhaps I should be more cautious: There are indications that East doesn't have the jack of spades.

Since the opponents play fourth best leads, East knows his partner has a doubleton heart. So he knows it is safe to cover the jack of hearts. If he thought I wanted to play spades from the dummy, he would not make it so easy for me to do so. He would cover the heart jack, hoping that forcing me to win this trick my hand would cause me some inconvenience. If he holds the spade jack, he knows it is likely that I would prefer to lead spades from the dummy. So his failure to cover suggests he doesn't have it.

This inference is somewhat weaker playing against a computer than against a human. Jack, with a singleton jack or with jack-ten doubleton, knows I don't need to play spades from dummy. So he might not see the point of covering. A human, however, appreciates the fact that my double-dummy requirements are not relevant. Most of the time when I am missing the jack, I would want to start spades from the dummy whether or not I need to on the actual layout.

If trumps break, I'm home. I can cash the spade queen and ruff a club. If East has all the remaining spades, however, I need to take a double finesse to avoid losing two more trump tricks. I'm not too worried about that. In addition to the Sherlockian inference above, it's unlikely East would lead the six from jack-ten-six-deuce looking at eight-seven third in the dummy. (In this layout, since I must use one of dummy's trumps to ruff a club, retaining the six guarantees a second trump trick unless I magically duck out West's ace.) But sometimes defenders do foolish things. So if I can guard against a four-one break at no risk, I might as well do so.

Can I? I certainly can't take a double finesse before ruffing a club. If West has ace-jack-ten, he can win and play a third spade to stop the ruff. Can I afford to ruff a club first? Hardly. East might overruff and give his partner a heart ruff. A bad trump break is sufficiently unlikely that I'm not willing to take either one of thoses risks.

I play the eight of spades--ten--king--deuce. Good. I ruff a club and give up a spade. Making four.

	NORTH Jack ♠ 8 7 4 ♥ J 9 8 2 ♦ A J 4 2 ♣ K 4
WEST Sam ♠ A J 2 ♥ 5 3 ♦ Q 9 8 6 5 ♣ 7 3 2		EAST Stephen ♠ 10 6 ♥ K 10 6 ♦ K 10 7 ♣ A J 9 8 6
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ K Q 9 5 3 ♥ A Q 7 4 ♦ 3 ♣ Q 10 5

I see they could have beat this. All West had to do was lead a low spade at trick one. Our counterparts at the other table stopped sensibly in two spades and made three. So we pick up an undeserved ten imps.

I would have had a problem if, after winning the club ace, East had shifted to the three of hearts. Should I (A) hop, playing West for king-six-five, or should I (B) duck, playing West for a singleton five? A priori, a singleton heart is less likely than king third. But that isn't the only thing that matters. In addition to guessing hearts correctly, I must pick up trumps for one loser. If I choose (A) and I'm right, I need East's spades to be ace third, ace doubleton, or jack-ten doubleton. If I choose (B) and I'm right, I am very likely to be able to avoid a second trump loser (after West ruffs). East failed to open the bidding and has already shown up with the club ace. So, if he has king fourth of hearts, the spade ace is probably on my left. In that case, if I take my percentage play in spades, I will lose a second trump trick only if West began with ace-deuce, ace-six, or ace-jack-ten. Add to that the fact that West, if he has king third of hearts, might choose to lead something else but would rarely choose another lead with a singleton heart. All in all, (B) seems like the clear winner.

Table 1: +620
Table 2: -140

Result on Board 2: +10 imps
Total: +7 imps