Board 4
Both sides vulnerable
Both sides vulnerable
| ♠ A 5 2 ♥ K J 8 5 2 ♦ Q 3 ♣ K 6 4 |
Two passes. RHO opens with one spade. I don't like passing with an opening bid, but this hand is hardly appropriate for a vulnerable two-level overcall, and I can't double without diamond support.
I pass, LHO bids two spades, partner passes, and RHO bids three spades, which they play as invitational. I pass again, and three spades ends the auction.
A heart lead looks right. But which one? The deuce is the systemic lead. But if partner has the queen, I'd rather lead the king. It might drive an entry to partner's hand, and it will avoid leaving me with the only heart guard in case there are squeezes afoot. If partner has the ace and the queen is doubleton, my choice won't matter. If partner has the ace and the queen is third, either lead could be right. (It's right to lead low if declarer has queen third. But it could save a trick to lead the king if dummy has it.) Finally, if partner has neither honor, my choice probably won't matter, since I've made a poor lead anyway. On balance, the king of hearts looks better, so that's what I choose.
| NORTH
Dimitri ♠ 10 8 7 ♥ 10 6 ♦ 7 6 4 2 ♣ A J 7 3 |
||
| WEST
Phillip ♠ A 5 2 ♥ K J 8 5 2 ♦ Q 3 ♣ K 6 4 |
| West | North | East | South |
| Phillip | Dimitri | Jack | Brodie |
| Pass | Pass | 1 ♠ | |
| Pass | 2 ♠ | Pass | 3 ♠1 |
| (All pass) | |||
| 1Invitational | |||
There is a useful technique for analyzing your defensive prospects that I haven't discussed yet in this blog: matching dummy's cover cards with declarer's losers. On this deal, I can credit South with six losers for his game try. We have no unexpected tricks (ruffs, stray jacks, etc.) So if dummy covers two of declarer's losers, we can't beat three spades. The ace of clubs covers one loser. If declarer has ace third of hearts, the doubleton heart will cover another (now that I've failed to lead a trump). So, for starters, I must assume declarer does not have ace third of hearts. Similarly, if declarer has the club queen, the club jack behind my king, will cover a second loser. So I must assume partner has the club queen.
I could reach these same conclusions by constructing possible three spade bids for declarer and discarding those where he is cold. But it is much easier and faster this way. With this technique, I know the minute dummy hits that, if we are to have any chance to beat this contract, partner must have the club queen and declarer must have fewer than three hearts (or we must have the tempi to stop a ruff).
Declarer plays low from dummy, partner overtakes my king with the ace, and declarer follows with the nine. Oops. Leading the king from this hand is risky if partner is inclined to overtake it. I overtook Lowenthal's king lead only once. ("Even if I had king-queen," he explained patiently after the session, "why would I lead the king if I needed you on play at trick two? I'd lead low--or perhaps the queen.") Anyway, I now have a new assumption to add to my list. I must assume partner has the heart queen. If he doesn't, we've compressed two of declarer's losers into one, which is surely all he needs to make this.
At this point, I can place all the major high cards. If partner has the ace-queen of hearts and the club queen, as I must assume he does, then declarer needs the rest--the king-queen of spades and the ace-king of diamonds--for his three spade bid. To get declarer's loser count down to six, I must credit him with a six-card spade suit or a four-card minor. With a four-card minor, he probably would have bid it in preference to three spades, so it's likely he has six spades.
Partner switches to the five of diamonds--ace--three--deuce. If declarer had ace-king doubleton of diamonds, partner would have led the diamond jack. So declarer must have ace-king third, and we must establish our diamond trick and cash it before declarer can pitch it on dummy's clubs. Partner's low diamond suggests he has the jack, so it's probably safe for me to lead diamonds myself when I get in. Partner's carding isn't always reliable, however, so I would rather not lead diamonds myself if I don't have to.
Declarer leads the three of spades. That's good news. If he's drawing trumps, then he doesn't have three hearts. I play the deuce, declarer plays the seven, and partner follows with the six. Declarer plays the eight of spades from dummy, partner pitches the three of hearts, and declarer plays the spade four.
So declarer has six spades. If I could trust partner's heart card, then I would know declarer is 6-2-3-2. Partner isn't big on giving present count, however, so declarer might also be 6-1-3-3. We need three more tricks. They must be either a diamond, a heart, and a club or a diamond and two clubs.
Do I need to shift to the queen of diamonds, hoping partner has the jack? If declarer is 6-1-3-3, we need two club tricks to beat this. So I don't need to play diamonds yet. We have plenty of time to set up our diamond and cash it. If he is 6-2-3-2, all I have to do to stop the pitch is take the ten of spades off the table (in case declarer has ten-nine doubleton of clubs). Again, there is no hurry to play diamonds. So I might as well try to cash a heart. I'd just as soon declarer didn't know partner had the heart queen, however. If he did, he might place me with the diamond queen. So I can't afford to play a low heart.
I play the heart jack, intending to switch to a spade if it holds. It doesn't. Partner plays the four, and declarer ruffs with the spade jack. Declarer leads the nine of spades to dummy's ten as partner pitches the seven of hearts. Now the four of diamonds--eight--jack--queen. I exit with heart. We still have two club tricks coming. Down one.
| NORTH
Dimitri ♠ 10 8 7 ♥ 10 6 ♦ 7 6 4 2 ♣ A J 7 3 |
||
| WEST
Phillip ♠ A 5 2 ♥ K J 8 5 2 ♦ Q 3 ♣ K 6 4 |
EAST
Jack ♠ 6 ♥ A Q 7 4 3 ♦ 10 9 8 5 ♣ Q 10 9 | |
| SOUTH
Brodie ♠ K Q J 9 4 3 ♥ 9 ♦ A K J ♣ 8 5 2 |
Perhaps I misdefended in giving him that option. If I had seen declarer's hand, I would have shifted to the king of clubs when I was in with the spade ace. If declarer ducks, I would play another club. Declarer can make his contract by ducking again. But if he thinks I have king doubleton, he will rise with the ace, draw my trump, and take a diamond finesse. Three-three diamonds is no longer an option, since dummy has no entries.
Is there any way for me to find that defense? Not unless partner cards more helpfully. If he switches to the diamond ten rather than the five, I will know declarer has ace-king-jack. If he then drops the seven of hearts (present count) on the second round of trumps, I will be double-dummy. I hate to admit it. But I'm not entirely sure I would find the right defense even then. I would have to appreciate that, if I leave the club ace in dummy, declarer should play ace, king of diamonds rather than take the finesse. I didn't appreciate that as I was defending. But maybe that's only because I had too many things to worry about. Maybe if I knew for sure declarer had the diamond jack and if I knew for sure the heart wasn't cashing, it would be easier to focus on declarer's options. Or maybe not. We'll never know. Against this particular declarer, shifting to the club king is the wrong defense anyway. If he's going to misplay it, why should I risk giving him the contract if he has the club ten?
Meanwhile, score one for the offshape take-out double. We're cold for four hearts. I know some readers who are very pleased to see that, but I'm not changing my mind about offshape doubles yet. I think partner is closer to doubling two spades than I am to doubling one.
Fortunately, our opponents did not reach game either. They also defended three spades and beat it a trick. I'm a little surprised at that. Not only is ace, king, and a low diamond declarer's best play in diamonds in most scenarios, it is also fairly easy for the defense to mark West with the diamond queen. If the defense starts with a low heart to East's ace, for example, East is marked with the ace-queen of hearts and, by assumption, a club honor (else declarer has two club tricks). Once he shows up with a singleton spade, the diamond queen is a huge favorite to be offside.
Table 1: +100
Table 2: -100
Score on Board 4: 0 imps
Total: +3 imps
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