Event 3 - Match 8 - Board 2

Board 2
Our side vulnerable

♠ 4 ♥ 8 5 3 ♦ K J 8 4 ♣ A Q 9 6 4

RHO opens one heart. I've had two hands recently where an apparently routine decision not to overcall when vulnerable worked out badly. On the first deal, after a one spade opening on my right, I passed at unfavorable with

♠ K Q 10 4 ♥ 9 5 ♦ K J 10 6 5 ♣ 5 2

The auction proceeded

LHO	Partner	RHO	Me
		1 ♠	Pass
1 NT	Pass	2 ♣	Pass
2 ♠	(All pass)

Making two. I commented that I considered a two diamond overcall with my hand clear if I weren't vulnerable. What I didn't say is that I replayed the deal, overcalling two diamonds to see what would have happened. The auction proceeded

LHO	Partner	RHO	Me
		1 ♠	2 ♦
D'ble	3 ♦	4 ♣	Pass
4 ♠	Pass	Pass	Double
(All Pass)

A few boards later, after pass--pass--one spade to me, I passed, both vulnerable, with

♠ A 5 2 ♥ K J 8 5 2 ♦ Q 3 ♣ K 6 4

I caught partner with

♠ 6 ♥ A Q 7 4 3 ♦ 10 9 8 5 ♣ Q 10 9

and we defended three spades down one, cold for four hearts. (The diamond sets up, so I don't need to guess the jack of clubs.)

These were pretty significant swings (or, more accurately, missed opportunities, since the other table did not overcall either). Two boards prove nothing, of course, but they did make me wonder. I doubt there are many experts who would even consider overcalling vulnerable with either of those hands. But perhaps we are wrong. Anyway, here is another vulnerable overcall no one in his right mind would make. So far, I'm still in my right mind. But if passing works out badly on this deal as well, that may change.

I pass, LHO bids two hearts, and RHO bids four hearts. Everyone passes.

I suspect most players would lead their singleton spade. But I think that's a mistake. You have both minors wired, and spades are breaking almost as badly as they can. When all declarer's side suits are breaking badly, it is often right to lead a trump. Hands like this are what Lowenthal's Third Law of Opening Leads--"The lead of a trump shows a side singleton or void"--is all about. The law is an exaggeration, but a singleton or void, when combined with tenaces in the other suits, often inspired John to lead a trump, and often to good effect. Frequently on a deal like this, declarer would win the trump lead and attack spades himself. Then John would get to ruff and lead another trump.

I lead the five of hearts.

	NORTH Floyd ♠ Q J 8 7 5 ♥ A 6 2 ♦ 10 7 5 ♣ 10 7
WEST Phillip ♠ 4 ♥ 8 5 3 ♦ K J 8 4 ♣ A Q 9 6 4

West	North	East	South
Phillip	Floyd	Jack	Christian
			1 ♥
Pass	2 ♥	Pass	4 ♥
(All pass)

Declarer plays the deuce from dummy and captures partner's four with his ten. Declarer rates to have at least three and a half honor tricks for his four heart bid. I must hope partner has at least the spade king, else declarer has ten tricks off the top. That gives declarer at most two honor tricks in the majors: king queen of hearts plus the spade ace. He must have at least one and a half honor tricks in the minors: ace-queen of diamonds or ace of diamonds, king of clubs. Either way, I must credit declarer with the diamond ace. This is an assumption of necessity. I have no particular reason to believe declarer has the diamond ace. But, if he doesn't, we probably aren't beating this. Partner is unlikely to hold both the diamond ace and a spade honor.

It may seem strange to count honor tricks instead of high-card points. But I find it a much faster way of constructing hands, at least at a first approximation. It's easier to count up to three and a half than it is to count up 16 or 17 or whatever I'm supposed to assume declarer has in terms of high-card points.One might think it wouldn't work, since, after all, most players aren't using honor tricks for their hand evaluation. But they aren't using high-card points either, at least not rigidly. They upgrade with concentrated values and downgrade with soft, scattered values. Counting honor tricks is a quick way of taking such adjustments into account.

Declarer plays the seven of hearts to dummy's ace as partner discards the three of diamonds. I can't tell if this is high or low. If it is high, then declarer has the diamond six. If it is low, declarer has the diamond deuce. Since I have already placed declarer with the diamond ace, declarer must have at least two diamonds. Partner would avoid pitching from queen third or queen fourth. Most likely, he has three small.

Declarer plays the heart six from dummy. He has squandered a dummy entry. So he can't have a holding where he needs to lead twice toward his hand. It is unlikely, therefore, that he has both the diamond queen and the club king.

Partner discards the diamond six. Partner might pitch one diamond from three small to let me know he can't guard the suit, but why pitch a second one? He must have a five-card suit he can pitch from, and he might need diamonds as exit cards. So I'm changing my mind. It now seems likely that partner has five diamonds. Since I know declarer has the deuce, that gives partner ace-queen fifth, which means he doesn't have a spade honor and we aren't beating this. I would have thought partner would pitch six-three rather than three-six from that holding. But perhaps he didn't want to tip declarer off about the location of the diamond ace.

Declarer plays the heart jack. Declarer will expect me to pitch from my five-card suit, so I won't. I pitch the diamond eight. Partner pitches the diamond nine.

Declarer leads the nine of spades--four--five--deuce. That pretty much confirms my construction. If declarer had honor-ten-nine of spades, he would lead the honor to guarantee a dummy entry. To lead the nine, he must have ace-king-ten-nine, which gives him

♠ A K 10 9 ♥ K Q J 10 x x ♦ 2 ♣ K x

He'll run spades, pitching a diamond, and lead up to the club king. I'll score two club tricks for minus 450. That's almost what happens. He has king-jack of clubs, so he leads to the club jack in the end position.

	NORTH Floyd ♠ Q J 8 7 5 ♥ A 6 2 ♦ 10 7 5 ♣ 10 7
WEST Phillip ♠ 4 ♥ 8 5 3 ♦ K J 8 4 ♣ A Q 9 6 4		EAST Jack ♠ 6 3 2 ♥ 4 ♦ A Q 9 6 3 ♣ 8 5 3 2
	SOUTH Christian ♠ A K 10 9 ♥ K Q J 10 9 7 ♦ 2 ♣ K J

I can't stand it! It happened again! I don't overcall, and we go minus 450 when we can make five of either minor. True, it's not a very good game, and it's unlikely we would bid it even if I overcalled. But I still think it's time to experiment a little. Fortunately, I have an understanding partner. From now on, colors are for children.

Table 1: -450
Table 2: +450

Score on Board 2: 0 imps
Total: +4 imps