Event 3 - Match 8 - Board 7

Board 7
Both sides vulnerable

♠ A Q 10 ♥ A 9 ♦ Q 9 8 4 ♣ K 10 6 4

I open one diamond in first seat. Partner responds one heart, and I bid one notrump (15-17). Partner bids two clubs (checkback Stayman), and RHO doubles. I redouble. Jack and I haven't discussed this redouble. But I think king-ten fourth is the worst holding I could have. I need the ace or king, so the defense can't play three rounds of trumps, and I need a second trump trick.

Partner bids three clubs. RHO passes, and I bid three notrump. LHO dutifully leads the seven of clubs.

	NORTH Jack ♠ J 9 ♥ Q 8 7 6 2 ♦ A K 6 ♣ 8 3 2
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ A Q 10 ♥ A 9 ♦ Q 9 8 4 ♣ K 10 6 4

West	North	East	South
Floyd	Jack	Christian	Phillip
			1 ♦
Pass	1 ♥	Pass	1 NT
Pass	2 ♣1	Double	Redouble
Pass	3 ♣	Pass	3 NT
(All pass)
1Checkback Stayman

I might have taken a shot at two clubs redoubled with partner's hand. If I didn't know Jack better, I would think he was playing it safe because we just bid and made a slam off two cashing tricks. That's not a strategy I approve of, by the way. If you think it's wrong to pass the redouble, that's one thing. But if you think it's right, I believe you should do it regardless of the state of the match. I've never understood why being up in a match tempts people to take actions they believe are anti-percentage.

I have eight easy tricks: two spades, a heart, three diamonds, and two clubs. And I have lots of possibilities for a ninth. I play low from dummy, and East plays the jack. I see no reason to win this trick, so I encourage with the six. East cashes the club ace. I play the four, and West plays the spade deuce. Perhaps this means the spade king is onside.

No, it's not. East shifts to the eight of spades. He doesn't know I have the ten, so he would not lead away from the king in this position, especially after his partner's deuce. I might as well retain some flexibility by playing the queen. West can't possibly duck this trick. I could be 2-2-5-4 for all he knows.

West takes the king and continues with the four of spades. East plays the five. Where's the three? It's possible East is playing low (present count) from three and West's four is high from four-three doubleton:

(A)  ♠ K 4 3 2

♠ 8 7 6 5

It's also possible East is playing high from a doubleton and West is leading low from three:

(B)  ♠ K 7 6 4 2

♠ 8 5 3

I have to keep both possibilities in mind.

If diamonds are three-three, I've made this. So I might as well assume they aren't. In that case, West is probably the one with four diamonds. If West has four spades, then he is 4-4-4-1, and I'm cold. I can win this trick in dummy, take a club finesse, then play a low heart to dummy's queen. If it loses to the king, West is caught in a red suit squeeze. If West has five spades, then he is 5-3-4-1. In that case, I will need some luck in the heart suit. I need to find West with the heart king (so I can score the queen) or with jack-ten-third (so he will be squeezed).

I win in dummy with the spade jack, then lead a club to my ten. West pitches the three of hearts. He is surely 5-3-4-1 now. He would not pitch from four hearts, allowing me to establish the suit.

I play then nine of hearts; West plays the four. I play the queen. East wins with the king and plays the seven of spades to my ace. West follows with the three, and I pitch the heart deuce from dummy. I am down to this position:

	NORTH Jack ♠ -- ♥ 8 7 6 ♦ A K 6 ♣ --
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ -- ♥ A ♦ Q 9 8 4 ♣ K

Once I deduced spades were five-three, I expected East to show up with the spade three. But West had it, suggesting layout (A) above. Is that possible? Could West be 4-4-4-1?

No. There is no chance that West, with a perfectly safe spade pitch available, would have pitched a heart from jack fourth or ten fourth, allowing me to run the suit if I guessed to duck out his partner's king. The spade suit must lie as follows:

(C) ♠ K 6 4 3 2

♠ 8 7 5

That means West made a strange lead of the four of spades from six-four-three at trick three. But it is more likely that West carded strangely than that he risked handing me the contract for no reason. West must be 5-3-4-1.

There is no squeeze, so I need to take four diamond tricks. If I had worked out West's shape earlier, I could have played for this lie of the diamond suit.

	NORTH Jack ♦ A K 6
WEST Floyd ♦ J 10 x x		EAST Christian ♦ 7 x
	SOUTH Phillip ♦ Q 9 8 4

I lead the eight. If West covers, I win in dummy, return to my hand, and lead the nine, pinning East's seven and establishing dummy's six. Unfortunately, I don't have the communication to do that any more. My only chance at four diamond tricks is to find East with jack-ten doubleton.

It costs nothing to lead the eight of diamonds anyway. If West plays low, I may decide to play him to have made a mistake and to let it ride. It's unlikely I would do that against a computer, but I might do it in a real game if I sensed a sufficient degree of anxiety on my right once West's low diamond hit the table.

On the eight of diamonds, West plays the seven. I can't believe he would fail to cover with jack-ten-seven fourth, so any notion I had of letting this ride has vanished. I go up with the ace; East plays the deuce. I return to my hand with the heart ace and cash the club queen. knowing full well there is no squeeze. There isn't. Down one.

	NORTH Jack ♠ J 9 ♥ Q 8 7 6 2 ♦ A K 6 ♣ 8 3 2
WEST Floyd ♠ K 6 4 3 2 ♥ J 4 3 ♦ 10 7 5 3 ♣ 7		EAST Christian ♠ 8 7 5 ♥ K 10 5 ♦ J 2 ♣ A Q J 9 5
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ A Q 10 ♥ A 9 ♦ Q 9 8 4 ♣ K 10 6 4

Was I making two clubs redoubled? That's unclear. Suppose East starts with ace, queen of clubs. I win, play a diamond to my king and float the jack of spades. West wins and plays another diamond. I win with the ace and cash two spades, pitching a diamond from my hand, to reach this position:

	NORTH Jack ♠ -- ♥ Q 8 7 6 2 ♦ -- ♣ 8
WEST Floyd ♠ 6 ♥ J 4 3 ♦ 10 7 ♣		EAST Christian ♠ -- ♥ K 10 5 ♦ -- ♣ J 9 5
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ -- ♥ A 9 ♦ Q 9 ♣ 10 6

Counting the heart ace and club ten, I have seven tricks. I need one more. In this layout, I can ruff dummy's nine of diamonds in my hand. East must overruff (else that's my eighth trick). If he leads a heart, I score the heart queen. If he exits in trumps, I score the diamond queen. (Note a heart shift by West when he is in with the spade king does not help.)

This line will not work, however, if West has the heart king, since he can gain the lead to give East a second diamond ruff. In that case, in the diagrammed position, I must play ace and a heart. West wins and must play a diamond or a spade. I ruff in my hand, East overruffs, and I pitch the nine of diamonds. Again, East must either give me the heart queen or draw trumps, allowing me to cash the diamond queen.

A different opening lead might give me more problems. But sooner or later, I reach the same position. In all variations, my success comes down to guessing who has the heart king.

Unfortunately, our teammates did not beat three notrump. Should they have? After a strong notrump opening and a Jacoby auction, West will probably lead a spade, which declarer will win in dummy. If declarer allows East to win the first heart trick, a spade continuation will beat it. (The defense establishes spades or shifts to a club depending on which hand has the remaining heart entry.) But if declarer leads a heart to the nine at trick two, there is nothing the defense can do.

This deals illustrates why I think the strategy of "playing it safe" when you are up in the match is wrong. Of course you would like to duplicate the result at the other table if that were possible. But it's not. You don't know what's going on at the other table. So why not just take your percentage action? Presumably, that's how you got in the lead in the first place.

I don't know if I would have made two clubs redoubled or not. But I do 16 imps better if I make it, and I lose only 2 imps more if I go down. I like those odds.


Table 1: -100
Table 2: -600

Result on Board 7: -12 imps
Total: +19 imps