BBO Daylong Tournament 1 - Jun 1, 2021 - Board 2

Board 2
Our side vulnerable

♠ A K 10 9 2  ♥ A 4  ♦ 3  ♣ K Q J 8 5

I open one spade, and partner bids one notrump. I'm sure some will bid three clubs with this hand, but it's not worth a game force. I bid two clubs. Partner bids two notrump.

We could certainly have a club slam. Club ace, heart king, spade queen. That leaves two or three HCP for wastage in diamonds. If three clubs were forcing, I would bid it. But it isn't. Three hearts would show a three-card suit, since partner could still have five hearts. So the only way to investigate slam is to bid four clubs. I would do so if we had some way to stop in four notrump. But the robots play most four notrump calls as Blackwood. If I bid four clubs, the only games available to us will be four spades or five clubs.

In most slam decisions, half a board is at stake. If you do the right thing, you gain half a matchpoint from every other pair. If you do the wrong thing, you lose half a matchpoint to every other pair--regardless of what the other pairs do. So it's worth bidding a slam if it is at least 50% to succeed. In this case, however, once we bid past three notrump, the odds might favor going on to slam even if it rates to be poor. 

Let's say we judge that a third of the field will play three notrump, and let's say we judge it will make at least four. The rest of the field plays either five or six clubs. Where do I stand if I bid four clubs and partner raises to five? If I pass and I'm right, I gain a half a matchpoint from two thirds of the field, in other words, one third of a board, If I go on to six and I'm right, I gain a half a matchpoint from two thirds of the field and a full matchpoint from the third that stopped in three notrump, which comes to two thirds of a board. In other words, bidding slam is odds on so long I think I have one chance in three of making it. 

If I didn't think I had one chance in three of making slam, I wouldn't be trying for it in the first place. So as a practical matter, unless we manage to stop in four spades, bidding four clubs is tantamount to driving to slam. Am I willing to do that? Hardly. This hand is worth a slam invitation, but it's not worth a slam drive. Since, essentially, I have no way to invite, I think the percentage action is to bid three notrump.

I do so, and everyone passes.West leads the diamond six. East takes his ace and I claim. 

	NORTH Phillip ♠ A K 10 9 2 ♥ A 4 ♦ 3 ♣ K Q J 8 5
WEST Robot ♠ J 7 5 4 ♥ Q 10 7 ♦ 9 8 6 ♣ 10 6 2		EAST Robot ♠ Q 8 3 ♥ K J 9 5 3 ♦ A 7 4 2 ♣ 9
	SOUTH Robot ♠ 6 ♥ 8 6 2 ♦ K Q J 10 5 ♣ A 7 4 3

West	North	East	South
Robot	Phillip	Robot	Robot
Pass	1 ♠	Pass	1 NT
Pass	2 ♣	Pass	2 NT
Pass	3 NT	(All pass)

Six clubs would go down on a heart lead, but then so would three notrump. Even looking at partner's hand, I"m not sure what the right contract is at matchpoints.

It turns out every one who bid slam made it. Still, plus 690 is worth 65%, because quite a few pairs reached five clubs on auctions like

1 ♠	1 NT
3 ♣	4 ♣
5 ♣

If you're going to jump shift, you should at least follow through and bid four hearts when partner raises. That shouldn't be a cue-bid. When you have bid two suits and make a slam try by bidding a third, it should show a fragment and suggest shortness in the fourth suit. Sorting out the control situation is usually less important than judging if the hands fit well. Yes, if you have some freakish hand with a heart void and two small diamonds, you would rather be playing that four hearts is a cue-bid and denies a diamond control. But such hands come up rarely and your methods shouldn't cater to them. Even if you bid four hearts, however, you won't--or shouldn't--reach slam. With KQJTx of diamonds, partner won't be excited by your four-heart bid and will simply bid five clubs. 

Note that when deciding whether to raise five clubs to six in this auction, you do not face the same considerations I speculated about in my auction. You have (unwisely in my opinion) forced to game. Partner has shown nothing more than a minimum response. There is no reason to believe three notrump is making or that the field will be there. Some pairs might even be playing two clubs. So choosing to pass five club is perfectly reasonable.

Six pairs did reach six clubs, but none on any kind of intelligent auction. They overbid with three clubs on the second round, then overbid again by driving to slam when partner raised. For all they knew, five clubs was going down. In short, no one had a good auction, including me. Everyone guessed; some guessed better than others. It's a difficult hand in standard methods. 

For what it's worth, nine out of 28 pairs were in three notrump, so my estimate of one third was pretty close. What I didn't anticipate (although perhaps I should have) was that two pairs played three clubs. Presumably they forgot to check whether their three-club rebid over two notrump was forcing or not.