BBO Daylong Tournament 1 - Jun 1, 2021 - Board 8

Board 8
Neither vulnerable

♠ Q  ♥ A K J 6 5  ♦ A J 10 6  ♣ A Q 2

Three passes to me. This looks like enough casino points to open in fourth seat. Some are going to count their HCP and open two clubs. But this is a five-loser hand. It's not worth opening two clubs. And, even if it were, I would be hesitant to open two clubs with this pattern. Two club auctions are awkward when you have a variety of strains to explore. 

I open one heart, and partner raises to four. Could we have a slam? It's certainly possible. Partner could have a stiff diamond and the club king, for example. But that's a magic hand. Four losers is a lot for partner to cover when he couldn't open the bidding. I pass. West leads the six of spades

	NORTH Robot ♠ K 5 ♥ 10 8 7 4 3 ♦ K 7 5 ♣ 9 6 5
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ Q ♥ A K J 6 5 ♦ A J 10 6 ♣ A Q 2

West	North	East	South
Robot	Robot	Robot	Phillip
Pass	Pass	Pass	1 ♥
Pass	4 ♥	(All pass)

Hmm. I'm not sure I care for partner's four heart bid. Two hearts looks more to the point, five-card support notwithstanding. With both opponents being passed hands, you need some expectation of making four hearts to bid it. Fortunately, I have partner covered.

I play a low spade from dummy, hoping East inserts the jack. But no. He wins the ace and shifts to the seven of clubs. I try the queen, which loses to the king. West continues with the club ten, East plays the eight, and I win with my ace. I don't think West would lead the ten holding jack-ten, so I suspect the club jack is on my right. Other than that, I don't know much about the lie of the club suit. The fact that East led the seven from a suit headed by jack-eight-seven doesn't mean much. The robots' choice of spots when shifting in the middle of the hand appears to be random.

I can draw trump and pitch my club on the spade king. Assuming no surprise in the trump suit, I'm left with finding the diamond queen for an overtrick.

Everyone follows small to the first round of trumps. West pitches the spade three on the second round, and East follows with the queen. Six of spades, then the three. Usually the robots conceal the fifth card when they have led fourth best from a five-card suit. I don't know if they do this for deceptive purposes or because they don't know any better, thinking they are supposed to give present count. 

For the record, present count on your second play in the suit you have led works fine if you are playing third-and-lowest opening leads. But not if you are playing fourth best, as the robots do. In that case, if you play high from four (originally five), then partner can't tell whether you started with four or five. So you should play low, your original fifth best. Think of this as a "clarifying" card rather than a count card. It clarifies your holding, because it's a card you can't have if you began with four. What if you began with six? Then you should play high. If you play low, partner will assume you began with five. This means you are carding the same way with an original holding of four or six. But partner can probably work that out. It's certainly better than carding the same way with five or six. In general, two-card ambiguities are easier to resolve than one-card ambiguities. 

Given the popularity of third-and-lowest opening leads, many players never learned the proper continuations when playing old-fashioned fourth best. I suspect the BBO programmers are among them. Of course, you can always decide that count is more important to declarer than to partner and choose to card "incorrectly" for deceptive purposes. This, in fact, is one advantage of fourth-best leads. It is easier to conceal your count later if you decide to do so.

Anyway, the robots card incorrectly as a matter of routine, so I suspect West began with six spades.

I play a heart to dummy. West pitches the diamond nine; East, the spade deuce. Their first discard in a suit is usually honest count, so it appears West is either 6-1-4-2 or 6-1-2-4. I'm inclined to think the former. I don't think West would have continued with the club ten at trick three if he began with king-ten fourth. In any event, I 'll get confirmation when I ruff a club to my hand.

I pitch my club on the spade king. East plays the spade ten; West, the seven. When I play the club nine from dummy, East follows with the three. What? Not the jack? Maybe West is 6-1-2-4 after all? No. When I ruff, West pitches the spade eight. Cute. East knew he didn't need to cover the club nine, since I had no useful discard.  

Now that's a play I don't think many humans would make. I might fail to cover if I thought I had something to gain, like getting declarer to misplace high cards. But when declarer is going to find out what you've done right away, what's the point? We all make mistakes. What if you have misanalyzed the position and not covering turns out to give away a trick? It would be hard to explain to your partner.

Here is the current position:

	NORTH Robot ♠ -- ♥ 10 8 ♦ K 7 5 ♣ --
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ -- ♥ J ♦ A J 10 6 ♣ --

Assuming my construction is correct,West has two spades and three diamonds left, and East has a spade, two diamonds, and two clubs. Against humans, I would go with the odds and hook West for the diamond queen. But the robots always assume I can see their cards. If West began with Q98x of diamonds, he will cover my jack when I lead it in case his partner has 10x. The robots don't always cover an honor with an honor, as we just saw. But they will always do so if it can't cost double-dummy and might gain. I lead the diamond jack, and West plays the three. I go up with king. East thoughtfully relieves the suspense by dropping the queen. Making five.

	NORTH Robot ♠ K 5 ♥ 10 8 7 4 3 ♦ K 7 5 ♣ 9 6 5
WEST Robot ♠ J 8 7 6 4 3 ♥ 2 ♦ 9 8 4 3 ♣ K 10		EAST Robot ♠ A 10 9 2 ♥ Q 9 ♦ Q 2 ♣ J 8 7 4 3
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ Q ♥ A K J 6 5 ♦ A J 10 6 ♣ A Q 2

Plus 450 is worth 71%. Almost everyone found the diamond queen, but some reached six hearts. Some optimistically blasting it after one heart--four hearts and some after North took South's two-club opening seriously.

I finish fourth once again (out of 995) with a score of 77%. This time it took 85% to win. I don't think I could have managed that. Even if I had guessed to bid six clubs on board two, that would have been enough only for second place.

I've scored over 75% in both of these events. Just so you know, that's not typical. My average score in robot individuals is somewhere in the low sixties. I don't know if I concentrate better when I know I'm going to write the deal up or if I've just been lucky. 

 

BBO Daylong Tournament 1 - Jun 1, 2021 - Board 7

Board 7
Both vulnerable

♠ J 9 7 2  ♥ A K 6 2  ♦ K 9  ♣ A J 5

I open one notrump, partner passes, and RHO balances with two hearts, showing hearts and a minor. The robots play double as penalty here (not my personal preference). Even so, I'm not about to double unilaterally without better heart spots, so I pass. If partner reopens with a take-out double, I will leave it in. Knowing partner isn't broke and that he has a doubleton heart (which I believe his take-out double should promise), makes defending two hearts doubled more palatable.

LHO and partner both pass, so I'm on lead against two hearts. Holding four trumps with two trump entries, I would like to find some suit to tap declarer with. Partner would not have passed one notrump with five spades, and he is unlikely to have even four when he sells out to two hearts. But he might have a long minor. Unfortunately, so does declarer. If I pick his minor to lead instead of partner's, I won't be happy. So I settle for leading the spade deuce. Spades rates to be dummy's best suit, but maybe it's not a very good suit.

	NORTH Robot ♠ K 10 8 5 ♥ J 3 ♦ J 8 7 5 ♣ Q 9 8
WEST Phillip ♠ J 9 7 2 ♥ A K 6 2 ♦ K 9 ♣ A J 5

West	North	East	South
Phillip	Robot	Robot	Robot
1 NT	Pass	Pass	2 ♥
(All pass)

Declarer plays the eight from dummy, partner plays the queen, and declarer wins with the ace. The play of the spade eight from dummy as well as partner's selling to two hearts suggests declarer has another spade. So declarer's likeliest shapes are 2-x-y-2 or 2-x-2-y, with 5-4 one way or the other in his two suits.

Declarer leads the five of hearts to dummy's jack, as I play the deuce and partner plays the four. Let's see if he uses dummy's entry to take a diamond finesse. If not, then he probably doesn't have ace-queen of diamonds. He doesn't play a diamond. He plays a second heart to his queen as partner discards the club deuce. I win the king. This is the position:

	NORTH Robot ♠ K 10 5 ♥ -- ♦ J 8 7 5 ♣ Q 9 8
WEST Phillip ♠ J 9 7 ♥ A 6 ♦ K 9 ♣ A J 5

West	North	East	South
Phillip	Robot	Robot	Robot
1 NT	Pass	Pass	2 ♥
(All pass)

So declarer has six hearts and a four-card minor? Partner's club deuce suggests he has five clubs. He would tend to discard from his long suit, and he likes to discard count cards. That gives declarer 1-6-4-2. If declarer had two small clubs, he would have pitched on on the spade king (in which case I would regret having ducked the heart), so I know declarer has the club king. That means the only card partner can have is the ace or queen of diamonds, and he doesn't necessarily have either one. My inference about declarer's not using dummy's entry to take a diamond finesse isn't valid if declarer has everything. He knows the diamond finesse can't work. Could partner have both honors? I don't think so. He would not have sold to two hearts with four spades and a singleton heart unless he was virtually broke.

Before I commit to this construction, let me consider the possibility that partner didn't pitch from his long suit, that he has three small clubs instead. That gives him 4-1-5-3 and declarer 1-6-2-4. No. Declarer would have pitched a diamond loser on the spade king with that hand. His long minor has to be diamonds. 

So I know the whole layout except for which diamond honors declarer has. Let's consider each case:

(1) Declarer has both the ace and queen. In that case, all we can do is take two hearts, a club, and one diamond. Four tricks. There is nothing for the defense to do except to defend passively and wait to score my diamond king. Well, almost nothing. If declarer leads a low club toward dummy, I must hop, else he can win in dummy and pitch his club king on the spade king.

(2) Declarer has only the queen. Now we can take two more tricks, the diamond ace and a ruff, for down one. But that requires me to lead the diamond king at some point--either now or when I get in with the heart ace--losing a trick if declarer has ace-queen. If I thought I needed to beat this for a good score, I would go for the ruff. But this seems like a normal contract, so I just want to take the percentage action, whatever I decide that is.

(3) Declarer has only the ace. Now it gets complicated. Let's say I try a passive defense. I cash my ace of hearts and exit with a heart. Declarer leads a low club toward dummy. As observed earlier, I must hop and exit with a club. Declarer wins in his hand and cashes the diamond ace. Now I must unblock. If I don't, declarer tosses me in with a diamond and I have to give him two tricks in dummy to discard his remaining diamonds on. Unblocking breaks even if partner has just the queen, but it gains a trick if partner has queen-ten. (And, of course, it costs a trick when declarer has ace-queen.)

If I'm going to unblock in that scenario, I might as well lead the diamond king myself, getting my ruff when partner has the ace. Leading the diamond king myself has one other way to gain as well: Declarer might have ace-ten and fail to duck. Now when I'm in with my heart ace, I can get a diamond ruff.

All in all, shifting to the diamond king looks pretty good. It gains when partner has the ace or queen-ten or when he has just the queen and declarer fails to duck. Defending passively works when when declarer has ace-queen. So shifting to the king wins in more cases.

Can I postpone my decision? Suppose I play ace and a club. Declarer wins and plays a heart. I take my ace and I'm at the crossroads.  I've missed my chance for the swindle when declarer has ace-ten. But maybe the information I've gained will help me do the right thing. If so, giving up on the swindle may be a good investment. What will I learn on this line? Partner will have a chance to discard when I win the heart ace. If partner has ace third or queen-ten third, he can't afford to pitch a diamond, since that will blow a trick. So if he pitches a diamond, I have no choice but to defend passively, exiting with a trump.

A thoughtful human would pitch a diamond from three small to force me to defend passively. My robot partner might not do that, but it can't hurt to give him the chance. If he has ace third or queen-ten third, he won't pitch a diamond. If he has three small, he might. So his failure to pitch a diamond increases the odds that shifting to the diamond king is correct. In essence, it's a restricted choice play.

I cash the club ace--eight--six--four. Partner played his middle club spot, whatever that means. Now jack of clubs--nine--three--king. Declarer plays the heart eight. I take my ace. Dummy discards the spade five, and partner plays the diamond deuce. Yay! Thanks, partner. That solves my problem. I exit with a heart and eventually score a diamond trick for minus 140.

	NORTH Robot ♠ K 10 8 5 ♥ J 3 ♦ J 8 7 5 ♣ Q 9 8
WEST Phillip ♠ J 9 7 2 ♥ A K 6 2 ♦ K 9 ♣ A J 5		EAST Robot ♠ Q 6 4 3 ♥ 4 ♦ 10 3 2 ♣ 10 7 6 3 2
	SOUTH Robot ♠ A ♥ Q 10 9 8 7 5 ♦ A Q 6 4 ♣ K 4

94%. Most declarers made four after the defense blew a trick in a variety of ways. Sometimes they lost the diamond king; sometimes, the club ace. Two Wests chose to double two hearts, rendering their defense immaterial. 94% seems like a lot for what is nothing more than a par result. But the deal is tricky, especially if you don't draw the right inferences early. Partner's club deuce and declarer's declining to take a pitch on dummy's spade king were very revealing. After trick three, we knew the whole hand except for the location of the diamond honors. And there were still a lot of variations to consider. Imagine how many variations we would have to worry about if we hadn't drawn the inference that declarer had king doubleton of clubs.

So far as partner's helping me out in the endgame goes, I'm sure there are some players who would try to tell partner what they had in diamonds by some fancy suit-preference sequence when he plays ace and another club. I haven't the slightest clue what any sequence of plays means here, though I'm sure I would find out what partner thinks in the post mortem. Elaborate suit-preference schemes never make any sense to me. It all seems too ad hoc. Simply pitching a diamond when you have nothing in the suit, thereby forcing partner to do the right thing, makes more sense. If partner can count on you to do that, then not pitching a diamonds means you can't afford to. Conveying information by the logic of your plays is always clearer than any method of signaling.

Declarer's spade eight at trick one was a good play, by the way. It located a spade honor and briefly created the illusion that declarer had a doubleton spade. Had declarer played low from dummy, I would have known that his spade ace was a singleton. As a result of this illusion, I didn't even think about hopping with a heart honor at trick two to stop a club pitch. Fortunately, I didn't need to do that. I doubt the robot played the eight for the right reason. It was probably just a random choice. But a good random choice nonetheless.

BBO Daylong Tournament 1 - Jun 1, 2021 - Board 6

Board 6
Their side vulnerable

♠ 7 6 4  ♥ A K J 6 5 2  ♦ 9  ♣ A 10 2

I open one heart in second seat. LHO bids one spade. Partner bids two spades, showing a limit raise or better in hearts, and RHO bids four spades. I have six and a half losers, which suggest five hearts will go down one opposite a typical limit raise. But partner rates to have a stiff spade opposite my three small, so the hand might play a trick better than loser count indicates. Since five hearts might make and it wouldn't surprise me if four spades makes, bidding five hearts has two ways to win. I bid five hearts, and everyone passes.

	NORTH Robot ♠ 10 ♥ Q 8 7 3 ♦ A K 5 4 2 ♣ 8 7 3
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ 7 6 4 ♥ A K J 6 5 2 ♦ 9 ♣ A 10 2

West	North	East	South
Robot	Robot	Robot	Phillip
		Pass	1 ♥
1 ♠	2 ♠	4 ♠	5 ♥
(All pass)

West leads the ace of spades. East plays the three, and I follow with the four. I can ruff two spades and pitch one club on the king of diamonds to make five. Is there any way I can set up a long diamond to make six? I not only need diamond to be four-three, I need trumps to be two-one. If I ruff two spades, I can't draw three rounds of trump and wind up in dummy.

At trick two, West shifts to the five of clubs. East plays the king, and I win with my ace.

I need to ruff two diamonds. How do I handle my entries to do that? Say I ruff a spade and play a heart to my hand. If trumps are three-zero, I abandon the idea of setting up diamonds. I ruff my last spade, then overtake the queen of hearts to finish drawing trumps. I still might take the rest if someone has five diamonds and queen-jack of clubs and is squeezed. But at least five is safe. 

If everyone follows to the first heart, I can play a diamond to the ace and ruff a diamond high. Now a trump to the queen and ruff another diamond. I still have one dummy entry left via a spade ruff to cash dummy's diamond king and potentially the long diamond. The only way this plan fails is if someone is void in diamonds. The opponents would probably have bid more if that were the case. And in any event, I don't see how to avoid that risk. If I draw two rounds of trump before playing diamonds, I'm an entry short.

I ruff a spade in dummy. West follows with the five; East, with the jack. I play the heart seven to my jack. East plays the ten, West the nine. Now diamond nine--eight--ace--three. The hands is over. Nothing left to do except see if diamonds set up. They don't. Making five.

	NORTH Robot ♠ 10 ♥ Q 8 7 3 ♦ A K 5 4 2 ♣ 8 7 3
WEST Robot ♠ A Q 8 5 2 ♥ 9 4 ♦ J 8 ♣ Q 9 5 4		EAST Robot ♠ K J 9 3 ♥ 10 ♦ Q 10 7 6 3 ♣ K J 6
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ 7 6 4 ♥ A K J 6 5 2 ♦ 9 ♣ A 10 2

64% for plus 450. It's unfortunate six didn't make. My experience in these robot individuals is that the field tends to draw trumps first, then look around for what to do next. The fact that you need to ruff one diamond before finishing the trumps means you would probably score around 90% if it worked.

Four spades was going down one. Three players chose to double it instead of bidding five hearts. That's a strange decision, since this hand clearly has better offense than defense. One chose to pass, perhaps thinking it was forcing, but his partner didn't agree and passed it out.

One player chose an optimistic six hearts. Four-three diamonds a priori is 62%. If that's all you needed, slam would be fine. But you need two-one trumps as well, which brings to slam slightly under 50%. Actually worse than that, since the fact that the opponents bid four spades vulnerable with 19 HCP combined means a four-three diamond split is less likely than normal. Add to that the fact that some pairs will choose to defend four spades, making the odds you need to bid slam higher, and slam becomes a terrible bet.

Playing my preferred methods, I would bid a fit-showing three diamonds with the North hand on the first round. I prefer reserving the cue-bid for balanced raises. Over four spades, it's not clear what South's proper action is. The diamond misfit and club ace suggest defending. The three small spades and sixth heart suggest bidding on. I would probably pass, which I do play as forcing. (My rule is: A game-invitational raise sets up a force unless you have a chance to decline the invitation. Since East's four spade bid deprives me of that chance, my pass is forcing.) The fit-showing jumper usually bids on with a singleton in the opponents' suit and doubles with two or more, so partner would bid five hearts. On the actual auction, I inferred partner's singleton spade. But I could have been wrong. The opponents don't always have the trump length they promise.

BBO Daylong Tournament 1 - Jun 1, 2021 - Board 5

Board 5
Our side vulnerable

♠ A K 10 8 5 2  ♥ Q 3  ♦ Q 5  ♣ 8 7 2

Two passes to me. If I were in fourth seat, I could see opening two spades, since partner will expect a decent hand. But this a full opening bid, so it is too good for a third-seat weak two bid. 

I open one spade, and partner bids two diamonds. It might be right to pass this. But partner could have opened with a weak two-bid in diamonds and chose not to. If he has six diamonds, it's probably a bad suit, and he might have only five. I did briefly contemplate opening two spades, after all. So how bad can it be to bid it now? 

I bid two spades, and partner bids three diamonds, which I pass. Oh, well. I guess I should have passed two.

	NORTH Phillip ♠ A K 10 8 5 2 ♥ Q 3 ♦ Q 5 ♣ 8 7 2
	SOUTH Robot ♠ 4 ♥ 10 8 ♦ A 9 8 6 3 2 ♣ K Q 9 3

West	North	East	South
Robot	Phillip	Robot	Robot
			Pass
Pass	1 ♠	Pass	2 ♦
Pass	2 ♠	Pass	3 ♦
(All pass)

That's some three diamond bid! Why should partner assume diamonds are better than spades with ace-nine-eight sixth? He might be right, however, since West chose to lead the diamond jack. I cover with the queen and take East's king with my ace. I can now cash the ace and king of spades, pitching a heart, and possibly hold my losses to a heart, a diamond, and, if I'm lucky, two clubs. I play a spade--jack--ace--three. I lead the spade king, and East ruffs with the diamond four. 

Well! Nice three diamond bid, partner! Two spades would not have played well. There is no reason to shorten my trumps and be in danger of losing control, so I pitch the eight of hearts. West follows with the spade nine. East shifts to the jack of clubs.

Should I play the king or the queen? If I want East to think his partner might have the club queen, I should cover this with the king. If I want West to think his partner might have the club king, I should cover with the queen. East will probably know his partner doesn't have the queen when he doesn't continue the suit, so West is the only one I have a chance of fooling. I play the queen. West takes the ace and cashes the diamond ten. East follows. This is the current position.

	NORTH Phillip ♠ 10 8 5 2 ♥ Q 3 ♦ -- ♣ 8 7
	SOUTH Robot ♠ -- ♥ 10 ♦ 9 8 6 3 ♣ K 9 3

West plays the spade queen, and East discards the heart nine. West wasn't worried about setting up dummy's spades, because he knows I have no dummy entry. I could ruff this and cash the club queen, making if the ten drops and going down one if it doesn't. But there is no reason to ruff when I have a heart loser to pitch. As we've observed before, if you need your opponent to do something foolish, your chances are better if you leave him on play. 

This technique proves valuable once again. When I pitch my heart, West shifts to the club five, picking up his partner's ten of clubs. Making three.

	NORTH Phillip ♠ A K 10 8 5 2 ♥ Q 3 ♦ Q 5 ♣ 8 7 2
WEST Robot ♠ Q J 9 7 6 ♥ K 4 2 ♦ J 10 ♣ A 5 4		EAST Robot ♠ 3 ♥ A J 9 7 6 5 ♦ K 7 4 ♣ J 10 6
	SOUTH Robot ♠ 4 ♥ 10 8 ♦ A 9 8 6 3 2 ♣ K Q 9 3

What was West playing me for when he switched to a club?

♠ x  ♥ A T x x  ♦ A 9 8 x x x  ♣ Q x ?

With that hand, I would be pitching my club losers instead of my potential heart winners. But the robots draw no inferences from the play, so that kind of reasoning isn't available to them. 

While the club shift was a clear error, West wouldn't have made that error if I hadn't given him the chance to do so. I had to cover the club jack with the queen, not the king, and I had to leave him on play in the end position. Both of these plays I made on general principles, with no specific idea of what mistake I was trying to lure my opponent into making. But the general principles are worth keeping in mind: (1) Try to keep the opponents in the dark. (2) Give the opponents decisions to make. 

94% for plus 110. Somewhat surprisingly, no one passed two diamonds, which I thought was a reasonable choice at the time and which looks even better in hindsight. Most either took the same auction I did or opened two spades and played it there, going down anywhere from one to three. 

So opening two spades works out poorly not because the hand is too good but because spades, surprisingly, is the wrong strain. Funny how decisions sometimes work out for reasons other than the reason you made them.