BBO Daylong Tournament 1 - Jun 1, 2021 - Board 7

Board 7
Both vulnerable

♠ J 9 7 2  ♥ A K 6 2  ♦ K 9  ♣ A J 5

I open one notrump, partner passes, and RHO balances with two hearts, showing hearts and a minor. The robots play double as penalty here (not my personal preference). Even so, I'm not about to double unilaterally without better heart spots, so I pass. If partner reopens with a take-out double, I will leave it in. Knowing partner isn't broke and that he has a doubleton heart (which I believe his take-out double should promise), makes defending two hearts doubled more palatable.

LHO and partner both pass, so I'm on lead against two hearts. Holding four trumps with two trump entries, I would like to find some suit to tap declarer with. Partner would not have passed one notrump with five spades, and he is unlikely to have even four when he sells out to two hearts. But he might have a long minor. Unfortunately, so does declarer. If I pick his minor to lead instead of partner's, I won't be happy. So I settle for leading the spade deuce. Spades rates to be dummy's best suit, but maybe it's not a very good suit.

	NORTH Robot ♠ K 10 8 5 ♥ J 3 ♦ J 8 7 5 ♣ Q 9 8
WEST Phillip ♠ J 9 7 2 ♥ A K 6 2 ♦ K 9 ♣ A J 5

West	North	East	South
Phillip	Robot	Robot	Robot
1 NT	Pass	Pass	2 ♥
(All pass)

Declarer plays the eight from dummy, partner plays the queen, and declarer wins with the ace. The play of the spade eight from dummy as well as partner's selling to two hearts suggests declarer has another spade. So declarer's likeliest shapes are 2-x-y-2 or 2-x-2-y, with 5-4 one way or the other in his two suits.

Declarer leads the five of hearts to dummy's jack, as I play the deuce and partner plays the four. Let's see if he uses dummy's entry to take a diamond finesse. If not, then he probably doesn't have ace-queen of diamonds. He doesn't play a diamond. He plays a second heart to his queen as partner discards the club deuce. I win the king. This is the position:

	NORTH Robot ♠ K 10 5 ♥ -- ♦ J 8 7 5 ♣ Q 9 8
WEST Phillip ♠ J 9 7 ♥ A 6 ♦ K 9 ♣ A J 5

West	North	East	South
Phillip	Robot	Robot	Robot
1 NT	Pass	Pass	2 ♥
(All pass)

So declarer has six hearts and a four-card minor? Partner's club deuce suggests he has five clubs. He would tend to discard from his long suit, and he likes to discard count cards. That gives declarer 1-6-4-2. If declarer had two small clubs, he would have pitched on on the spade king (in which case I would regret having ducked the heart), so I know declarer has the club king. That means the only card partner can have is the ace or queen of diamonds, and he doesn't necessarily have either one. My inference about declarer's not using dummy's entry to take a diamond finesse isn't valid if declarer has everything. He knows the diamond finesse can't work. Could partner have both honors? I don't think so. He would not have sold to two hearts with four spades and a singleton heart unless he was virtually broke.

Before I commit to this construction, let me consider the possibility that partner didn't pitch from his long suit, that he has three small clubs instead. That gives him 4-1-5-3 and declarer 1-6-2-4. No. Declarer would have pitched a diamond loser on the spade king with that hand. His long minor has to be diamonds. 

So I know the whole layout except for which diamond honors declarer has. Let's consider each case:

(1) Declarer has both the ace and queen. In that case, all we can do is take two hearts, a club, and one diamond. Four tricks. There is nothing for the defense to do except to defend passively and wait to score my diamond king. Well, almost nothing. If declarer leads a low club toward dummy, I must hop, else he can win in dummy and pitch his club king on the spade king.

(2) Declarer has only the queen. Now we can take two more tricks, the diamond ace and a ruff, for down one. But that requires me to lead the diamond king at some point--either now or when I get in with the heart ace--losing a trick if declarer has ace-queen. If I thought I needed to beat this for a good score, I would go for the ruff. But this seems like a normal contract, so I just want to take the percentage action, whatever I decide that is.

(3) Declarer has only the ace. Now it gets complicated. Let's say I try a passive defense. I cash my ace of hearts and exit with a heart. Declarer leads a low club toward dummy. As observed earlier, I must hop and exit with a club. Declarer wins in his hand and cashes the diamond ace. Now I must unblock. If I don't, declarer tosses me in with a diamond and I have to give him two tricks in dummy to discard his remaining diamonds on. Unblocking breaks even if partner has just the queen, but it gains a trick if partner has queen-ten. (And, of course, it costs a trick when declarer has ace-queen.)

If I'm going to unblock in that scenario, I might as well lead the diamond king myself, getting my ruff when partner has the ace. Leading the diamond king myself has one other way to gain as well: Declarer might have ace-ten and fail to duck. Now when I'm in with my heart ace, I can get a diamond ruff.

All in all, shifting to the diamond king looks pretty good. It gains when partner has the ace or queen-ten or when he has just the queen and declarer fails to duck. Defending passively works when when declarer has ace-queen. So shifting to the king wins in more cases.

Can I postpone my decision? Suppose I play ace and a club. Declarer wins and plays a heart. I take my ace and I'm at the crossroads.  I've missed my chance for the swindle when declarer has ace-ten. But maybe the information I've gained will help me do the right thing. If so, giving up on the swindle may be a good investment. What will I learn on this line? Partner will have a chance to discard when I win the heart ace. If partner has ace third or queen-ten third, he can't afford to pitch a diamond, since that will blow a trick. So if he pitches a diamond, I have no choice but to defend passively, exiting with a trump.

A thoughtful human would pitch a diamond from three small to force me to defend passively. My robot partner might not do that, but it can't hurt to give him the chance. If he has ace third or queen-ten third, he won't pitch a diamond. If he has three small, he might. So his failure to pitch a diamond increases the odds that shifting to the diamond king is correct. In essence, it's a restricted choice play.

I cash the club ace--eight--six--four. Partner played his middle club spot, whatever that means. Now jack of clubs--nine--three--king. Declarer plays the heart eight. I take my ace. Dummy discards the spade five, and partner plays the diamond deuce. Yay! Thanks, partner. That solves my problem. I exit with a heart and eventually score a diamond trick for minus 140.

	NORTH Robot ♠ K 10 8 5 ♥ J 3 ♦ J 8 7 5 ♣ Q 9 8
WEST Phillip ♠ J 9 7 2 ♥ A K 6 2 ♦ K 9 ♣ A J 5		EAST Robot ♠ Q 6 4 3 ♥ 4 ♦ 10 3 2 ♣ 10 7 6 3 2
	SOUTH Robot ♠ A ♥ Q 10 9 8 7 5 ♦ A Q 6 4 ♣ K 4

94%. Most declarers made four after the defense blew a trick in a variety of ways. Sometimes they lost the diamond king; sometimes, the club ace. Two Wests chose to double two hearts, rendering their defense immaterial. 94% seems like a lot for what is nothing more than a par result. But the deal is tricky, especially if you don't draw the right inferences early. Partner's club deuce and declarer's declining to take a pitch on dummy's spade king were very revealing. After trick three, we knew the whole hand except for the location of the diamond honors. And there were still a lot of variations to consider. Imagine how many variations we would have to worry about if we hadn't drawn the inference that declarer had king doubleton of clubs.

So far as partner's helping me out in the endgame goes, I'm sure there are some players who would try to tell partner what they had in diamonds by some fancy suit-preference sequence when he plays ace and another club. I haven't the slightest clue what any sequence of plays means here, though I'm sure I would find out what partner thinks in the post mortem. Elaborate suit-preference schemes never make any sense to me. It all seems too ad hoc. Simply pitching a diamond when you have nothing in the suit, thereby forcing partner to do the right thing, makes more sense. If partner can count on you to do that, then not pitching a diamonds means you can't afford to. Conveying information by the logic of your plays is always clearer than any method of signaling.

Declarer's spade eight at trick one was a good play, by the way. It located a spade honor and briefly created the illusion that declarer had a doubleton spade. Had declarer played low from dummy, I would have known that his spade ace was a singleton. As a result of this illusion, I didn't even think about hopping with a heart honor at trick two to stop a club pitch. Fortunately, I didn't need to do that. I doubt the robot played the eight for the right reason. It was probably just a random choice. But a good random choice nonetheless.