ACBL Daylong 1 - Jul 29, 2021 - Board 9

Board 9
Opponents vulnerable

♠ A K 7 4 2  ♥ K 6 5  ♦ K 10  ♣ K Q 8

I open one spade in third seat. Partner bids one notrump. Two notrump shows 17 or 18 HCP. This hand has 18 in prime cards and no jacks. Even so, it lacks texture. My spade suit will be hard to establish opposite a singleton or doubleton. So the hand is not worth more than its nominal 18 HCP. 

I raise to two notrump, and partner re-raises to three. West leads the deuce of hearts

	NORTH Phillip ♠ A K 7 4 2 ♥ K 6 5 ♦ K 10 ♣ K Q 8
	SOUTH Robot ♠ 9 5 ♥ A J 10 9 ♦ Q 9 7 ♣ 6 5 3 2

West	North	East	South
Robot	Phillip	Robot	Robot
			Pass
Pass	1 ♠	Pass	1 NT
Pass	2 NT	Pass	3 NT
(All pass)

I play low from dummy, hoping to see East play the queen. But he doesn't. He plays the seven, and I win with the nine. 

In theory, West could have led from three or four small hearts. But East would have to be psychic not to play his queen at trick one. So I'm assuming the heart queen is on my left. I might has well use this hand entry to repeat the heart finesse. They should be able to keep me out of my hand and prevent me from ever cashing the fourth round of hearts. But the threat of reaching my hand may create problems for them. I lead the jack, just in case West thinks of some reason to cover. He does! I win with dummy's king, and East plays the three.

Why would West cover? Perhaps he has queen third. If so, he can't stop me from taking four heart tricks double-dummy, so, by robot logic, he sees no reason not to cover. The fact that, if he ducked, I wouldn't know I could afford to cash the ace, crashing my king, doesn't occur to him.

Now what? I have four heart tricks and two spade tricks. I need three minor-suit tricks to make this. I need either to find the club ace onside or to find the diamond jack. Playing for the club ace onside is problematic, since I only have one sure hand entry. So it looks better to hope the diamond jack is on my right. I'll start by leading the diamond king. I'll probably end up finessing East for the diamond jack, but I may change my mind, depending on how they defend.

East wins my diamond king with the ace; West plays the three. East continues with the eight of diamonds. Here is the position:

	NORTH Phillip ♠ A K 7 4 2 ♥ 6 ♦ 10 ♣ K Q 8
	SOUTH Robot ♠ 9 5 ♥ A 10 ♦ Q 9 ♣ 6 5 3 2

East doesn't know I have the nine, so he would probably lead the jack if he had it. It appears the diamond finesse is losing and I'm going to need the club ace onside instead. Since I need two entries to my hand, I can't afford to duck this trick. I need to hop and hope that either diamonds are four-four or West began with jack third. Otherwise, they will have enough tricks to beat me in the diamond suit. I play the queen, and West follows with the deuce. That's good. Maybe he's echoing with four. I play the deuce of clubs. West hops with the ace, and East follows with the seven.

I expect the opponents to cash their diamonds, but West shifts to the four of hearts. East pitches the diamond six. Why didn't they cash their diamonds? Were diamonds six-two?

I win and cash my last heart, pitching a spade from dummy. East pitches the five of diamonds. There is no way for me to take another trick beyond dummy's four winners. I cash them and concede the rest. Making three.

	NORTH Phillip ♠ A K 7 4 2 ♥ K 6 5 ♦ K 10 ♣ K Q 8
WEST Robot ♠ 10 8 3 ♥ Q 8 4 2 ♦ 3 2 ♣ A J 9 4		EAST Robot ♠ Q J 6 ♥ 7 3 ♦ A J 8 6 5 4 ♣ 10 7
	SOUTH Robot ♠ 9 5 ♥ A J 10 9 ♦ Q 9 7 ♣ 6 5 3 2

46%. My second below-average result. What did I do wrong? Oh, I see. Spade are three-three. I could have done better if I had ducked a spade after winning the king of hearts in dummy. 

Maybe that's a better line. If three-three spades is my only chance, it isn't. Playing for the diamond jack onside is better. But maybe playing on spades can work if spades are four-two also. I might wind up taking three spade tricks and two tricks in the minors. I'm not sure why I didn't even consider that line. For some reason, I was fixated on taking three tricks in the minors.

How would the play go if spades are four-two? I win the heart king and duck a spade. The best defense would be for West to win and play a heart. Now I"m forced to cash my last heart in this position:

	NORTH Phillip ♠ A K 7 4 ♥ -- ♦ K 10 ♣ K Q 8
	SOUTH Robot ♠ 9 ♥ 10 ♦ Q 9 7 ♣ 6 5 3 2

What do I pitch from dummy on the heart? Say I pitch a club. Now I play ace, king, and another spade. They win and play a club. When I drive the diamond ace, they have club tricks to cash. So that doesn't work.

How about pitching a diamond, coming down to a stiff king? If the club ace is onside, am I home? I play a club to dummy and play on spades. When the defense wins the spade, they play ace and a diamond. I still have to lose a trick to the club ace. So if the diamond play comes from my right, I will have to finesse the nine. That means if spades are four-two, I need the club onside plus some additional luck.

I'm not even going to try to calculate this beyond a rough estimate. Let's just say playing on spades works when spades are three-three and less than half the time when spades are four-two. That puts it somewhere under 60%.

When does my line work? During the play, I thought it was a little better than 50%. It works when the diamond jack is onside, and I have some chance if it isn't.

Unfortunately, there's a problem that I didn't see at the time. Some of the time the defense can prevent my taking the diamond finesse by winning my diamond king with the ace and playing a heart while the diamonds are blocked. My line might be wrong even if you switch the ten and nine of diamonds. But, given the blockage, ducking a spade at trick three is clearly better. Plus, playing on spades yields an overtrick when spades are three-three. That would tip the scales even if the decision were close.

Note that two assumptions I made during the play were wrong. First, that the diamond jack was offside. I didn't consider the possibility that East had six diamonds. I still think he would have led the jack with fewer than six diamonds. But with six leading low makes perfect sense, since he is hoping his partner has three diamonds and I have queen doubleton.

My second incorrect assumption was that West would not cover the heart jack with queen fourth. I made the classic mistake of thinking my opponent was looking at my hand. I knew I had no side entry to the long heart, but West didn't. From his point of view, I might have had either the spade queen or the diamond ace. 

So covering doesn't necessarily cost. When does it gain? Perhaps West didn't want to make it easy for me to lead twice toward dummy's clubs. Maybe, instead of mentally berating West for his cover, I should have considered that his play suggested he held the club ace. Had I drawn that inference, it would be easy to see that ducking a spade at trick three was my best play.