Zenith Daylong - Oct 14, 2021 - Board 5

Board 5
Our side vulnerable

♠ Q 4 2  ♥ J 9 7 4  ♦ J 8 6  ♣ 9 8 3

Partner opens one diamond, and RHO bids one spade. I pass, LHO bids two clubs, and partner doubles. The tooltip says the double is take-out, showing four or more cards in each red suit. RHO raises to three clubs. 

We do have a double fit. But I wasn't responding to partner's opening bid, and my hand has gotten worse after the one spade overcall. So I doubt it's right to compete. I pass, as does LHO. Partner hasn't had enough yet. He balances with three diamonds, presumably showing a six-card suit. If we assume the opponents would have found their eight-card spade fit, then partner has three spades, making him 3-4-6-0. That's possible. But it's more likely he's 2-4-6-1 and RHO chose to raise clubs rather than rebid his six-card spade suit.

RHO passes. Should I correct to three hearts? Even though the tooltip said the double shows four hearts, I doubt that's a firm promise. And even if partner does have four hearts, diamonds could play better. Taking club taps in partner's hand could prove awkward in hearts. Since my main goal in a competitive auction is to go plus, I want to play the safer contract. Trying to collect 140 instead of 110 is aiming for a narrow target. 

I pass. LHO passes also. West leads the king of hearts.

	NORTH Phillip ♠ Q 4 2 ♥ J 9 7 4 ♦ J 8 6 ♣ 9 8 3
	SOUTH Robot ♠ A 10 3 ♥ A 10 2 ♦ K 9 5 3 2 ♣ A K

West	North	East	South
Robot	Phillip	Robot	Robot
			1 ♦
1 ♠	Pass	2 ♣	Double
3 ♣	Pass	Pass	3 ♦
(All pass)

Wow! That's some three diamond bid, partner! I think I would have taken my chances on beating three clubs.

West wouldn't be leading from king-queen third into declarer's second suit, so the lead must be from king-queen doubleton. Frankly, that's a strange choice also. If you don't lead hearts, you may win two finesses. But the robots assume declarer is double dummy. Since they assume declarer is always dropping one of their honors, why not need the suit and try for a ruff?

Clubs have to be 3-5. That makes West either 5-2-3-3 or 6-2-2-3. If he has the spade king, that leaves East with queen-jack of clubs. East needs the diamond ace also to have his two club bid. 

I'm losing a heart and a spade. I need to hold my diamond losers to two, which means I need to play the suit to avoid either a heart ruff on my left or a spade ruff on my right. Trying to reach dummy in spades to lead up to my diamond king is pointless. I'll just open myself up to a spade ruff. So I need to lead diamonds from my hand.

Since I assume the diamond ace is on my right, I have four cases to consider: East can have (A) AQx, (B) AQ, (C) Axx, or (D) Ax.

With (A), East can win the first trump and shift to a spade, then win the second trump and reach his partner with the queen of hearts for a spade ruff. With (B), he can win the first trump and play a heart, then win the second trump and give his partner a heart ruff. So (A) and (B) are lost causes. (C) and (D) are the only holdings I need to consider.

Let's consider (C) first. I can play the king or I can play low. If I play the king, East wins, shifts to spade, and gets a ruff. If I play low, West will probably hop with the queen. Since he can't play spades from his side, there is no way for East to take a spade ruff. And since West doesn't have a third trump, there is no way for him to take a heart ruff. What if West ducks instead? Ducking would be a poor play with queen-ten doubleton, but with queen-small it might work. East wins and shifts to a spade. I can lead the king next to smother the queen. But then East can play a heart to his partner for a spade ruff. Yes. Ducking with queen-small beats me.

What about (D)? If I lead low, he can hop, cash his heart queen, and eventually get a heart ruff. But if I lead the king, there is nothing the opponents can do. East can't get a spade ruff with only two trumps, and West can't get a heart ruff, because the hearts are blocked.

In summary, I want to lead low in case (C) (although, unless West has queen-ten, this won't work against best defense) and I want to lead the king in case (D). One might conclude I should lead the king, taking my best legitimate chance. But errors are part of the game. If I think West is unlikely to find the duck with queen doubleton--and I do--I need to decide which layout is more likely.

Can West have

♠ K J x x x  ♥ K Q  ♦ Q x x  ♣ x x x ?

That doesn't look like much of a three-club bid over South's double. With six spades and a doubleton diamond, the raise looks more attractive.

How about East's two-club advance? Is he more apt to have

♠ x  ♥ x x x x  ♦ A x x  ♣ Q J x x x

or

♠ x x  ♥ x x x x  ♦ A x  ♣ Q J x x x?

Personally, I prefer the latter hand. It's better to hold a doubleton in partner's suit than a singleton. But I doubt the robots think that way. To them, any singleton is better than a doubleton. 

So the auction suggests West is more likely to have a doubleton diamond. Perhaps I'm not giving the robots enough credit. But I think West is unlikely to duck with queen doubleton, so I'm going to back my judgement and play a small diamond from my hand.

I still haven't played to trick one yet. I play a low heart from dummy and East plays the five. I take my ace and lead the diamond deuce, West plays the seven. If West did find the duck with queen doubleton, I'm down. So I have to assume he has something else. What layout do I need now? If East has three diamonds, he's getting a spade ruff, so I have to play West for three diamonds. If they include the ten, all I have to do is insert the eight. I lose two top diamonds, and there is no ruff because hearts are blocked.

I play the eight. East wins with the ten, then surprises me by cashing the heart queen. Really? West found a heart lead from king doubleton? I play the deuce, and West pitches the nine of spades. I see. A singleton. So East had five hearts. That hadn't occurred to me. He must be 1-5-2-5 and, for some reason, chose to bid clubs rather than hearts over one spade.

East continues with the eight of hearts and West ruffs with the diamond four. He switches to the club six--three--queen--ace. Diamonds should be splitting now. I lead the diamond three--ace--six--queen. I was wrong about the diamond ace. But that's because I wasn't expecting East to have the heart queen. West exits with the club jack--eight--seven--king. 

Here is the current position:

	NORTH Phillip ♠ Q 4 2 ♥ J ♦ J ♣ 9
	SOUTH Robot ♠ A 10 3 ♥ -- ♦ K 9 5 ♣ --

Is there any possibility of taking the rest? I can pitch a spade on dummy's jack of hearts. If West has the club ten, dummy's nine is a threat only he guards. And since East has a stiff spade, West holds the only spade guard also. If I could cash my tricks ending in dummy, I would have him in a squeeze. Unfortunately I can't. That's too bad. If West actually has the club ten, they went out of their way to isolate the guard in his hand. It's only fair I should be allowed to punish them for it.

My only chance is a pseudo-squeeze. This can't possibly work, since West knows I have no clubs left. But it doesn't hurt to try.

I play a diamond to dummy and pitch the spade ten on the jack of hearts. I can't return to my hand with a club ruff, since I need for West to believe, against all evidence to the contrary, that I have a club left. So I play a spade to my ace and cash the last two trumps. West, of course, discards the club ten and holds the spade king. Down one.

	NORTH Phillip ♠ Q 4 2 ♥ J 9 7 4 ♦ J 8 6 ♣ 9 8 3
WEST Robot ♠ K 9 8 7 6 5 ♥ K ♦ A 7 4 ♣ J 10 6		EAST Robot ♠ J ♥ Q 8 6 5 3 ♦ Q 10 ♣ Q 7 5 4 2
	SOUTH Robot ♠ A 10 3 ♥ A 10 2 ♦ K 9 5 3 2 ♣ A K

Minus 100 is worth 61%. Leading the diamond king at trick two would not have helped. But we would have gone plus if partner had sold to three clubs as he should have. At least we beat the pairs who played three hearts and went down anywhere from two to four. Correcting three diamonds to three hearts was indeed a bad idea.

The reason this result isn't better is that a few declarers managed to make three diamonds by playing for a different mistake. They led a small spade at trick two and West ducked. I would not have expected that to work. And if it doesn't work, you're down two. I'm still not sure whether I should have led a small diamond or the king at trick two. But either one seems better than trying to sneak a spade through.