Sunday, May 29, 2022

Weekly Free Instant Tournament - Apr 8, 2022 - Board 8

Board 8
Neither vulnerable

♠ A K 10 8 6   10 5 3   Q 9  ♣ A J 2  

Two passes to me. With three and a half honor tricks and a good five-card suit, this hand evaluates to a strong notrump. Still, opening with one spade gives me no rebid problem. I can bid two clubs over a one notrump response, intending to raise two notrump to three if partner bids it. Switch the majors and I would open with one notrump, since I would have no good rebid after one heart--one spade. But with this hand, I see no reason to risk missing a five-three spade fit.

I open with one spade, and partner bids one notrump. I bid two clubs as planned. I could pass, since one notrump by a passed hand is not forcing. But the time to pass is when you are afraid to hear a two notrump rebid from partner. Since I'm happy to raise two notrump to three, it's wrong to pass.

Partner corrects two clubs to two spades and RHO doubles for take-out. This auction shouldn't exist. If RHO has a take-out double of spades, he should have doubled one notrump, when his partner could have bid at the two level. Now his partner must bid at the three-level on a deal that is very likely to be a misfit. Most of the time, we have a five-two spade fit on this auction. So if RHO has a singleton spade (which he probably does even to be tempted to act), he rates to catch his partner with five spades and very possibly no four-card suit to bid. If his partner isn't keen on defending two spades doubled, they may land in a four-three or even a three-three fit at the three level.

I pass, LHO bids three diamonds, and there are two passes to me. It's disappointing partner couldn't double this. But I have nothing further to say. I pass, and partner leads the spade deuce. The deuce means partner has three spades and therefore quite a weak hand--not enough to raise one spade to two. So, even before dummy hits, I know we are unlikely to beat this.


NORTH
Robot
♠ 4
K J 6
K 8 6 4 3
♣ K 10 6 5




EAST
Phillip
♠ A K 10 8 6
10 5 3
Q 9
♣ A J 2




West North East South
Robot Robot Phillip Robot



Pass
Pass Pass 1 ♠ Pass
1 NT Pass 2 ♣ Pass
2 ♠ Double Pass 3
(All pass)


North's auction is insane. He had a perfectly normal double of one notrump, and the double of two spades was quite risky. But he seems to have landed on his feet. Instead of catching my partner with a good hand and a doubleton spade, he caught him with a bad hand and three spades. Further, his partner picked his five-card suit to bid, so they have apparently landed in a nine-card fit.

Could it be a ten-card fit? I don't think partner would risk a non-forcing notrump with a stiff diamond. He would either raise to two spades or pass. So declarer is probably four-four in the pointed suits.

I win with the spade king and South plays the five. I see nothing to gain by breaking a side suit. A trump looks like the safest return. If I didn't have the nine, I might try leading the queen, hoping to sucker declarer if he has ace-ten-nine fourth. But with the nine, that won't work. Better to lead low and hope to score my queen if partner has ace doubleton.

I lead the nine of diamonds--ten--jack--king. Declarer leads the club six--deuce--queen--nine. Declarer continues with the eight of clubs--seven--king. Interesting way to play the suit. An unusual play often tips you off to declarer's full hand, since the play makes sense only in very specific scenarios. What can we conclude from declarer's play of the club king? Obviously he has a doubleton club, so he must be 4-3-4-2. But we can also conclude he has no heart losers to pitch. An extra club trick is of no use to him. He's just as happy ruffing both clubs, so he has nothing to lose by taking a shot that partner ducked the club ace twice. That means he must have the heart queen. 

Going to the trouble to make that deduction may seem like a waste of time, since the hand is essentially over. But this is exactly what you should be doing throughout the play: taking note when something unusual happens and asking yourself what the implications are. Even if it can't possibly matter, it's important to stay in that mind set. It will make it easier for you to draw deductions when it does matter.

I take the club ace and play the diamond queen. Declarer wins with the ace, and partner follows with the five. We are out of tricks unless partner has the heart ace. He does. Making four.


NORTH
Robot
♠ 4
K J 6
K 8 6 4 3
♣ K 10 6 5


WEST
Robot
♠ 7 3 2
A 8 7 4
J 5
♣ 9 7 4 3


EAST
Phillip
♠ A K 10 8 6
10 5 3
Q 9
♣ A J 2


SOUTH
Robot
♠ Q J 9 5
Q 9 2
A 10 7 2
♣ Q 8

We get 21%, my only bad result this set. I thought some might open with one notrump, but no one did. Most often, East opened with one spade and passed his partner's one trump response, playing it there. Pass is a mistake, but it works spectacularly well this time. Not only do you catch partner with a bad hand so you don't miss a game, but you also catch North napping. Passing exploits North's failure to double one notrump.

Had the field opened with one notrump, thereby pre-empting the opponents out of the auction, I would feel I had some responsibility for this result. My choice of opening bids was not clear, and the alternative would have worked out better. As it is, however, I have to count this as nothing more than bad luck. The bad result sprang not from my opening bid but from my two-club rebid, which was clear. In fact, the rebid failed only because of two weird actions by my opponent. Sometimes that happens, and you can't worry about such matters.

Incidentally, my diamond shift at trick two was an error. "A trump looks like the safest return," I said. That might be true if I didn't have the heart ten. But since I do, declarer has no guess in the heart suit. He might, however, have a guess in diamonds. With ace-jack-ten fourth, he might decide, on the strength of my having bid two suits, to hook partner for the diamond queen.

In fact, while I was lazily assuming declarer had four diamonds, that isn't necessarily true. He might be 4-3-3-3 and have made a lucky guess as to which three-card suit to bid. If he has ace-ten third of diamonds, my shift gives away a trick by force. So North wasn't the only one who made a mistake and landed on his feet.

I finish first with 76%. I'm not sure what to do next week. I could continue doing the Weekly Free Instant Tournament so readers can play the same boards and compare. Or I could try something different, like an IMP tournament. Any thoughts?

7 comments:

  1. Do what you enjoy, of course, but I enjoy the weeklies and the comparisons!

    (I opened 1N, as the bots like to lead short suits against notrump, and that worked better, though you got me overall.)

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  2. "If I didn't have the nine, I might try leading the queen, hoping to sucker declarer if he has ace-ten-nine fourth. But with the nine, that won't work."

    I confused. Do you hope declarer will play you for QJx? If so, why does the 9 make a difference?

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    Replies
    1. You're right. If South decides to play me for queen-jack third (which a robot might do, since he draws no inference from my play), whether or not he holds the nine will make no difference. I have no idea what I was thinking about. Clearly I wasn't thinking clearly at the time, since the diamond shift makes no sense period.

      Delete
  3. I like the weekly instant tournament, too, to be able to play along. But I am happy to read whatever you write!

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  4. Why is it a mistake to pass 1NT? Doesn't the 2C bid usually lead to playing in a 7-card fit at the two-level in a lower-scoring strain? I understand we're happy if partner has a 5-card heart suit or an invite but that seems like a bad bet at matchpoints.

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    Replies
    1. t's a mistake because you could easily have a game. When I posted this hand as a problem in the Bridge People group on Facebook, a number of people complained that they would have opened with one notrump. But then they passed the one notrump response. That seems inconsistent to me. If you open with one notrump, you are saying you believe you belong in game opposite 10 or 11 HCP. If that's what they thought one round of bidding ago, why have they suddenly changed their minds?

      So far as playing the right partscore is concerned, I'm not too worried about that. Yes, one notrump might be a better partscore than wherever you end up after bidding two clubs. But it certainly doesn't have to be. One notrump does not promise a balanced hand, so two clubs or two of a red suit could easily be a better spot.

      I suppose one could try a simulation, but it would be very hard to do. Even if you trust the computer's predicted results, I'm not sure how you convert those results to matchpoints to calculate an expectation.

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  5. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete