Sunday, July 31, 2022

Free Super Sunday Daylong - May 29 - Board 9

Board 9
Opponents vulnerable

♠ 3   K 3   A J 8 5 3 2  ♣ A 8 6 4  

Two passes to me. I open with one diamond, LHO bids one heart, and partner makes a negative double. RHO bids two hearts. 

The tooltip says three diamonds by me shows 17 to 22 total points. That's nonsense. I can't sit here and let the opponents steal from us when they are at the two-level in a known fit and I have a six-card suit to compete in. Pass, to my mind, should suggest a weak notrump.

I know some like to play good-bad two notrump here, but I don't care for the convention for three reasons. 

First (and admittedly least important), I can't stand the unimaginative name. 

Second, I'm more interested in telling partner something about my shape than in distinguishing whether I have a good hand or a bad hand. Any bid that says "I'm interested in competing but I'm not going to tell you in what suit" makes no sense to me. In a competitive auction, you need to bid your suits so partner knows how the hands fit. Partner should assume you are just competing. If you do have interest in game, you can usually find some other call--a double or a natural two notrump for example. 

And that brings me to the third reason: I find a natural two notrump to be a very useful call in this auction. Frequently it is offshape, possibly a hand with which you would have jumped to three diamonds in an uncontested auction.

Back to the problem at hand. While I think it's clear to act, it's not so clear whether to bid three clubs or three diamonds. Three diamonds risks catching partner with a singleton. Three clubs risks playing there when partner is two-three in the minors. I'm not entirely confident in my choice, but I expect three diamonds to work out better on balance, so I bid it.

Everyone passes, and West leads the spade king.


NORTH
Robot
♠ A 7 6 2
J 8 2
10 7
♣ K J 10 2






SOUTH
Phillip
♠ 3
K 3
A J 8 5 3 2
♣ A 8 6 4


West North East South
Robot Robot Robot Phillip

Pass Pass 1
1 Double 2 3
(All pass)


Partner has four-card club support, and diamonds still looks like a better spot than clubs, so perhaps three diamonds is indeed the better bid.

I have only two sure losers--a trump and the heart ace--but I lots of potential losers. I might have two additional trump losers, a second heart loser, and a club loser. To make this, I need to avoid two of those four potential losers. I would normally take West's failure to lead the bid-and-raised suit as an indication that he has the ace, which would make avoiding two heart losers unlikely. But since he appears to have a spade sequence, I can't make that inference.

First let's see what I can do in the trump suit. I take the spade ace, as East plays the four. I lead the diamond seven and, when East plays the six, I let it ride. It loses to the queen. So far so good. I have a shot at losing only one diamond trick--and a pretty good shot, since, as a passed hand, West can't have the diamond king unless he has no honors in hearts.

West leads the spade queen, East follows with the five, and I ruff.

I have only one sure dummy entry, and I need that entry for a trump finesse, so I can't conveniently play East for the club queen. Since it's fifty-fifty who has the queen, I might as well take the finesse that's more convenient. I play the four of clubs--three--jack--seven. Now the diamond ten. East plays the nine and I overtake with the jack. West follows with the four. Nothing left to do except to draw trump, repeat the club finesse, and play East for the heart ace. He has it. I managed to avoid all four of the potential losers. Making five.


NORTH
Robot
♠ A 7 6 2
J 8 2
10 7
♣ K J 10 2


WEST
Robot
♠ K Q 8
Q 9 7 5 4
Q 4
♣ Q 9 3


EAST
Robot
♠ J 10 9 5 4
A 10 6
K 9 6
♣ 7 5


SOUTH
Phillip
♠ 3
K 3
A J 8 5 3 2
♣ A 8 6 4


Plus 150 is worth 71%. Those who passed two hearts survived because partner reopened with a double, which seems like a bad idea to me. I don't think eight working HCP is anything special for a one-level negative double. If partner heard me double and, with heart shortness, chose not to compete, it's not my job to nudge him.

On the other hand, if partner can't bid a minor without 17 total points, I suppose you have to reopen with this hand. So at least the robots' methods are consistent. Even so, I don't care for double. I would expect partner to pass it with any 3-2-5-3, and I have no expectation of beating this contract. If I felt compelled to reopen, I would bid two spades.

Sunday, July 24, 2022

Free Super Sunday Daylong - May 29 - Board 8

Board 8
Neither vulnerable

♠ A Q 8 6   3   K 9  ♣ A 10 7 5 4 3  

Three passes to me. I open with one club, and partner bids two clubs, showing at least a limit raise in clubs. King fifth of clubs, the spade king, and the diamond ace is a laydown slam, so I have to make a slam try. Fortunately, I have an easy way to do that: a splinter bid of three hearts.

Over three hearts, partner bids five clubs. According to the tool tip, this shows a better hand than four clubs. But if he had the prime cards he needs for slam, I assume he would have found a more aggressive call. I'm not crazy about playing five of a minor at matchpoints. But it doesn't appear that three notrump is making. If it isn't, there is nothing wrong with playing five clubs. I pass, and West leads the diamond four.


NORTH
Robot
♠ J 4 2
K
A 6 5 3
♣ K J 9 6 2






SOUTH
Phillip
♠ A Q 8 6
3
K 9
♣ A 10 7 5 4 3


West North East South
Robot Robot Robot Phillip
Pass Pass Pass 1 ♣
Pass 2 ♣ Pass 3
Pass 5 ♣ (All pass)

Three notrump might make after all as long as we play it from the right side, although I don't know which side that is.

I cover the diamond four with the five. East plays the deuce. I wasn't expecting that. What could East have to play low? Perhaps he has the jack and is afraid I have queen-ten-nine.

I win with the nine and cash the club ace--queen--deuce--eight. I cash the diamond king--seven--three-eight and play a club to dummy. West pitches the heart eight; East, the heart five. When I pitch a heart on the diamond ace, East follows with the jack. I was apparently right about why he played low at trick one. I play the fourth diamond and East pitches the seven of spades. 

East has a complete count on my hand, so there is no way he is pitching down to king doubleton of spades. Leading low to the queen hoping to drop the king is pointless. My only chances are to find West with a stiff king, a stiff ten or nine, or ten-nine doubleton. I suspect he would have led a stiff ten or nine, and East's spade seven pitch isn't consistent with a five-card suit anyway, so I'm going to play West for ten-nine doubleton. I play a club to dummy and lead the spade jack. West has ten-five doubleton, so I make only six.


NORTH
Robot
♠ J 4 2
K
A 6 5 3
♣ K J 9 6 2


WEST
Robot
♠ 10 5
Q 10 8 7 4 2
Q 10 7 4
♣ Q


EAST
Robot
♠ K 9 7 3
A J 9 6 5
J 8 2
♣ 8


SOUTH
Phillip
♠ A Q 8 6
3
K 9
♣ A 10 7 5 4 3


Plus 420 is worth 65%. 

One point worth noting. I was considering two ways to handle the spades suit: play low to the queen or lead the jack. Once East pitched a spade, I rejected the first option. That may have been a hasty decision. While it's true East would not pitch a spade from king third, there is no reason he couldn't pitch a spade from king doubleton. If pitching a spade is going to talk me out of leading low, it would be a good play.

Stiffing an offside king is a common ploy. Stiffing an onside king is a ploy that is often overlooked. That's precisely why it has a good chance of working. It is something declarer does not expect, so there is a variety of scenarios where it may talk declarer out of a winning line.

Sunday, July 17, 2022

Free Super Sunday Daylong - May 29 - Board 7

Board 7
Both vulnerable

♠ A K 8 6 2   K 6 2   J 5 2  ♣ A 2  

I'm in first seat. With the majors reversed, I must open with one notrump, since a one-heart opening leaves me with no good rebid after a one spade response. But with spades I don't have a rebid problem, so I can use my judgment. Aces and kings and the absence of spot cards makes this is a suit-oriented hand, so I open with one spade.

Partner bids two diamonds. I rebid two notrump, and partner raises to three notrump. West leads the club four.


NORTH
Robot
♠ J 7
A J 5 3
K Q 10 8 6
♣ Q 7






SOUTH
Phillip
♠ A K 8 6 2
K 6 2
J 5 2
♣ A 2


West North East South
Robot Robot Robot Phillip



1 ♠
Pass 2 Pass 2 NT
Pass 3 NT (All pass)

If the club king is on my right, I'm not making this. So I play the queen and hold my breath. East plays the five. That's a relief. I haven't seen the three, so West might have led from a five-card suit. In fact, he probably did, since the robots don't like aggressive leads except from long suits--and sometimes not even then.

After I knock out the diamond ace, I'll have ten tricks. If the heart queen is onside and I'm willing to risk the finesse, I'll have eleven with excellent chances for a twelfth. Hearts could be three-three or the hand with long hearts could guard spades and be squeezed. 

One thing I should keep in mind is that I have received a favorable opening lead. That's less important in a robot individual than it would be in a real event, since presumably everyone who has the same auction will get the same opening lead. But not everyone will open with one spade. Perhaps West will lead a club after a one-notrump opening as well, but that's not certain. There is at least some chance that I already have an advantage that I must be careful not to throw away.

I lead the diamond king. East doesn't know clubs aren't running. So if he has the diamond ace he will likely take it and return a club. If this holds, the diamond ace is probably on my left. It holds. East plays the nine; West, the four.

The heart ace is my only dummy entry outside the diamond suit. So if West ducks the next diamond as well, he forces me to decide whether to take the heart finesse before I've had a chance to run diamonds.

I play the diamond six, and East discards the spade three. That could be from a five-card suit, making East 5-3-1-4. Or it could be from a three-card suit, making East 3-5-1-4. I doubt very much East would pitch a spade from any four-card holding. Even pitching from a five-card suit is unattractive, since he knows I have five spades. That suggests he's 3-5-1-4. On the other hand, I would expect him to pitch a heart with that pattern. So, for the moment, I'm keeping both possibilities in mind.

I play the diamond jack and West, surprisingly, takes his ace. He continues with the club king--seven--six--ace.

Since West is allowing me to reach dummy with a diamond, I might as well run a few diamonds and see what discards I get. When you run a suit, it's a good idea to make predictions about what the opponents will discard. That way, if they pitch something you don't expect, it will set off an alarm.

What does East know about my hand? He should work out my pattern. But I do have a king more than I need to open the bidding, so he doesn't know I have both major-suit kings. He will need to come down to six cards. He will want to save one club for communication with his partner. If he is 3-5-1-4, he will probably come down to 2-3-0-1. 

What if he is 5-3-1-4? Then he has a problem. Unless he has queen-ten-nine of spades, he must keep four spades to keep me from running the suit. But if he keeps four spades and a club, he will have to come down to a stiff heart. Now I can run the heart suit. If I cash the heart king and the queen doesn't drop, I'll know I can finesse. So with 5-3-1-4, he will need to throw all his clubs and come down to 4-2-0-0 to give me a problem.

On the diamond queen, East discards the club ten. He has one club left. On the next diamond, East pitches the heart nine. The nine? The robots' first pitch in a suit is almost always count. I know he has either five hearts or three, so the only holding the nine is consistent with is queen--ten--nine. If I've read the layout correctly, I have the rest.

I pitch the spade deuce. On the last diamond, East pitches the heart ten, presumably coming down to a stiff queen. I pitch the spade six; West, the heart four. I play a low heart from dummy. East, as expected, plays the queen and I claim.


NORTH
Robot
♠ J 7
A J 5 3
K Q 10 8 6
♣ Q 7


WEST
Robot
♠ 10
8 7 4
A 7 4 3
♣ K J 8 4 3


EAST
Robot
♠ Q 9 5 4 3
Q 10 9
9
♣ 10 9 6 5


SOUTH
Phillip
♠ A K 8 6 2
K 6 2
J 5 2
♣ A 2

Plus 690 is worth 79%.

The defense was soft. For starters, West should duck the second diamond. If he does that, I will play a third diamond. West will win this round as East pitches a club. West will then continue with a club to my ace. I have no reason to believe the heart queen is onside, and if I take the finesse and it loses, I'm down. So I would play a heart to the ace and cash a diamond, pitching a spade from my hand. East will probably pitch a spade as well, and we are down to this position:


NORTH
Robot
♠ J 7
J 5 3
10
♣ --


WEST
Robot
♠ 10
8 7
--
♣ J 8 3


EAST
Robot
♠ Q 9 5
Q 10

♣ 9


SOUTH
Phillip
♠ A K 8 6
K 6
--
♣ --

On the last diamond, East has a problem. A pitch from either major gives me two tricks, so East will presumably let go of his last club. I can now make five by pitching a spade and endplaying him to force a lead from the heart queen. Or--better yet, since it's safer--by pitching a heart and playing ace, king, and another spade to set up my long spade.

So ducking the second diamond holds me to five. Once West fails to duck, there is no way to stop me from making six. It's probably impossible to work out at the time exactly what ducking the diamond accomplishes. But it's the right play on principle. Leaving me with a diamond entry to dummy allows me extra flexibility, which is usually a bad idea. It might cost to duck if I could profitably abandon the suit and go after tricks elsewhere. But, looking at that dummy, it's hard to imagine how that could be the case.

Sunday, July 10, 2022

Free Super Sunday Daylong - May 29 - Board 6

Board 6
Opponents vulnerable

♠ A Q   Q 9 3 2   J 7  ♣ A K J 7 4  

Pass on my right. I have enough in high cards to open with one club and, if necessary, reverse into two hearts. But with only queen-nine fourth of hearts, this hand looks more like notrump than clubs and hearts, so perhaps opening with one notrump is better. Another consideration is that the robots use unplayable methods after reverses, so I would prefer to avoid reverse auctions if possible.

Is this hand too good for a one notrump opening? It has 17 HCP and a good five-card suit. But neither the diamond jack nor the spade queen is carrying its full weight. And it's only four honor tricks (for the handful of us who still look at that), so the hand falls well within the strong notrump range.

I bid one notrump. LHO bids two spades, showing spades and a minor, and there are two passes to me. I'm short in spades, so I can't sell out. But I can't double without diamond support, so I bid three clubs. LHO doubles for takeout. He is probably either 5-3-4-1 or 4-3-5-1. Partner bids three spades. Oh, really? You were willing to sell to two spades, but now you want to drive to game?

I can stop spades but not diamonds, but we don't have room to explore. I bid three notrump, hoping either partner can take care of diamonds or West doesn't find the lead. Everyone passes. West, of course, leads his singleton deuce of clubs. Who needs stoppers?


NORTH
Robot
♠ 7 6 4
K J 7
K 10 8
♣ Q 10 9 6






SOUTH
Phillip
♠ A Q
Q 9 3 2
J 7
♣ A K J 7 4


West North East South
Robot Robot Robot Phillip


Pass 1 NT
2 ♠ Pass Pass 3 ♣
Double 3 ♠ Pass 3 NT
(All pass)


If I'm right about West's shape, I have three heart tricks. Five clubs and the spade ace give me nine. One or two diamond tricks will bring me up to ten or eleven.

West surely has the spade king. Even if he's determined to lead passively, a spade from a long suit headed by the jack would be a better passive lead than a singleton in my suit. The location of the diamond honors is less certain. Could West have

♠ K J 10 x   A x x   Q 9 x x x  ♣ x ? 

Probably not. How about

♠ K J 10 x   A x x   A 9 x x x  ♣ x ? 

Maybe. It still seems a bit light for this auction. But if he does have that hand and I lead a diamond to the ten, trying for eleven tricks, East can win and shift to a spade holding me to nine. At some point I'll need to decide whether to risk that or to settle for ten tricks by leading a diamond to king. But I'll worry about that later. First I need to knock out the heart ace.

I play the club nine from dummy, East plays the three, and I overtake with the jack. I play the deuce of hearts. West hops with the ace, and East follows with the four. West shifts to the deuce of diamonds, putting me to the test right away.

Is there any possibility West doesn't have the diamond ace? I doubt it--and not just because of his bidding. This would be a very strange defense with queen fourth or fifth of diamonds, since he has no reason to believe his partner has the ace. A spade shift, playing his partner for either the ace or queen, would look more attractive. In fact, a spade shift might look more attractive than a shift from just the diamond ace. Probably he has both the ace and the queen. Then a diamond shift would look very attractive, since all he needs to establish his suit is to find his partner with the jack.

Am I confident enough of that inference to play low, trying for eleven tricks at the risk of holding myself to nine? Maybe I don't need to. If West has both diamond honors, perhaps I can come to eleven tricks without risking a finesse against the queen.

What happens if I rise with the king, then cash my heart and club tricks? We come down to this position:


NORTH
Robot
♠ 7
--
10 8
♣ -
-





SOUTH
Phillip
♠ A Q
--
J
♣ --

To hold king double of spades, West must come down to a stiff diamond. If it's an honor, I endplay him. If not, my jack is high.

I play the diamond king--three--seven. Since I'm not sure whether West is 5-4 or 4-5 in spades and diamonds, West might, on a different layout, bamboozle me by coming down to a stiff king of spades and queen doubleton of diamonds. But on this deal, dummy's diamond ten protects against that. So long as West throws at least one diamond honor, I can exit with a diamond in the end position and score an extra trick one way or another. In fact, even if I'm wrong about the position and East has the diamond queen, exiting with a diamond doesn't hurt. I'll still take ten tricks.

I cash the king and jack of hearts, and everyone follows. On the next two clubs, East follows, and West pitches the spade five and the diamond nine. West has either three spades and three diamonds left or four spades and two diamonds. On the penultimate club, West pitches the spade jack, and East pitches the spade nine. Since this is East's first spade discard, he is probably giving count, so spades were four-four. If my reading is correct, this is the current position:


NORTH
Robot
♠ 7 6 4
--
10 8
♣ --


WEST
Robot
♠ K x
--
A Q x
♣ --


EAST
Robot
♠ x x x
--
x x
♣ --


SOUTH
Phillip
♠ A Q
Q
J
♣ 7

On the last club, West pitches the diamond ace; East, the spade eight. Here we go. West will hope his partner has the diamond jack and will pitch the queen next. I cash the heart queen and West pitches the diamond queen. Making five.


NORTH
Robot
♠ 7 6 4
K J 7
K 10 8
♣ Q 10 9 6


WEST
Robot
♠ K J 10 5
A 8 5
A Q 9 4 2
♣ 2


EAST
Robot
♠ 9 8 3 2
10 6 4
6 5 3
♣ 8 5 3


SOUTH
Phillip
♠ A Q
Q 9 3 2
J 7
♣ A K J 7 4

Plus 460 is worth 88%. Even taking only nine tricks would have been above average, since most of the field didn't reach three notrump. Most often they played some number of clubs or defended two spades.

I never commented on partner's auction. Driving to game was fine. You have to stretch a little when you're under pressure. But it would make more sense to do that stretching on the first round.

Actually, at this vulnerability I wouldn't mind his initial pass at IMPs. I would guess game is slightly better than even money to make, so at matchpoints you must bid it. But the odds are different at IMPs. If I don't reopen, I should have three spades, in which case the Law predicts there are 14 total tricks. The two likeliest results, then, are to collect 300 instead of 400 for a loss of three imps or to collect 200 instead of going minus 50, for a gain of six imps. So if game is only a slight favorite, the imp odds favor defending. 

That may be counter-intuitive, since one typically thinks of IMPs as the form of scoring that rewards bidding games. But that assumes the alternative is playing a partscore. When the alternative is collecting 200 or 300 on defense, the odds change.

Sunday, July 3, 2022

Free Super Sunday Daylong - May 29 - Board 5

Board 5
Our side vulnerable

♠ A 5   9 4   K Q 8 7 4 2  ♣ K 8 2  

Partner passes, and RHO opens with one club. I bid one diamond, and West bids three clubs, pre-emptive. Partner, who passed originally, comes to life with three spades, and RHO passes.

Personally, I would play this three-spade bid as fit-showing, showing five spades and four or more diamonds. If you pass in first seat, you deny a one-suiter with which you can act at the three-level unilaterally. So, unless you have a diamond fit, it is impossible to hold hand where you would want to bid three spades now.

The robots don't see it that way, however. The tooltip says this bid shows five or more spades and 12+ total points. I suspect partner is six-four in the majors and didn't want to open with a weak two-bid when he had four hearts. In any event, I don't think I can make game opposite such a hand. So I pass and we buy it for three spades. West leads the six of diamonds.


NORTH
Phillip
♠ A 5
9 4
K Q 8 7 4 2
♣ K 8 2






SOUTH
Robot
♠ J 10 9 7 6
10 8 7 2
A J
♣ A 9


West North East South
Robot Phillip Robot Robot



Pass
1 ♣ 1 3 ♣ 3 ♠
(All pass)


I see. Partner had an obvious responsive double over three clubs. He has nothing resembling a three spade bid. Had he doubled, I would have bid three diamonds, which probably makes. (Yes, we can make 3NT also, but I doubt I would have tried that opposite a passed hand.) 

Making this contract is going to be difficult. I start with six losers--two spades and four hearts--and somehow need to avoid two of them. Is that possible? If I find king-queen third of spades onside, I can avoid one of the spade losers. If there is a blockage in hearts, perhaps they will be unable to untangle four heart tricks. Then I can pitch a heart on a diamond.

East should have five clubs for his three-club bid and is unlikely to hold four hearts. That makes West either 3-4-3-3 or 4-4-2-3. I don't think he would lead the diamond six from ten-nine-six, so it must be the latter. There go my chances of losing only one spade trick. On the plus side, since I can't pick up the spades, I can now use dummy's small trump to ruff a heart and hold this to down one. They can always prevent the ruff, but maybe they will be disinclined to break the trump suit.

I play a low diamond from dummy. East plays the three, and I win with the ace. I play the deuce of hearts. West plays the jack. East overtakes with the queen and cashes the king as West plays the three. I don't know why East thought overtaking the jack was a good idea, but I"m glad he did. Now that they have crashed heart honors, I don't need to ruff a heart. I can simply drive the ace and establish my eight. I just need to get East's trumps out of the way first.

East shifts to the five of clubs--nine--ten--king. West opened the bidding with a balanced hand and so far has shown up with five HCP in hearts and at most three in clubs. So he must have the king-queen of spades. I have to hope East's doubleton spade includes the eight, else I have three trump losers. I cash the space ace, and East plays the eight, kindly relieving the suspense. I drive the top spades and eventually establish a heart trick. Down one.


NORTH
Phillip
♠ A 5
9 4
K Q 8 7 4 2
♣ K 8 2


WEST
Robot
♠ K Q 3 2
A J 5 3
6 5
♣ Q 10 7


EAST
Robot
♠ 8 4
K Q 6
10 9 3
♣ J 6 5 4 3


SOUTH
Robot
♠ J 10 9 7 6
10 8 7 2
A J
♣ A 9

Minus 100 is worth 72%. Most declarers went down two, often after trying to pitch a heart on diamonds, which would not appear to be the best approach.

Two pairs managed to make five, with a ploy I should have thought of. They won the opening lead with the diamond jack. Of course I should win trick one with the jack! There is no reason to unblock the suit, so why tell West where the diamond ace is? Winning with the ace was a careless play.

Declarer then continued with ace and a spade. West won and continued diamonds. Declarer won and drove the remaining high trump. Now West didn't know whether to play hearts or clubs. He chose the club queen, and declarer took the rest.

East can solve his partner's problem by pitching a discouraging club on the third round of spades. So this line works only against robots or against humans who have suit-preference accidents. Still, it can't hurt to make the opponents solve it. 

Winning with the diamond ace and playing a heart made the hand an open book for the defense. Once I concluded West had four spades, I had no legitimate chance to make this contract anyway. So concealing the fact that diamonds were running and hoping the opponents didn't work out to cash their heart tricks in time was clearly a better approach.