Free Super Sunday Daylong - May 29 - Board 6

Board 6
Opponents vulnerable

♠ A Q  ♥ Q 9 3 2  ♦ J 7  ♣ A K J 7 4

Pass on my right. I have enough in high cards to open with one club and, if necessary, reverse into two hearts. But with only queen-nine fourth of hearts, this hand looks more like notrump than clubs and hearts, so perhaps opening with one notrump is better. Another consideration is that the robots use unplayable methods after reverses, so I would prefer to avoid reverse auctions if possible.

Is this hand too good for a one notrump opening? It has 17 HCP and a good five-card suit. But neither the diamond jack nor the spade queen is carrying its full weight. And it's only four honor tricks (for the handful of us who still look at that), so the hand falls well within the strong notrump range.

I bid one notrump. LHO bids two spades, showing spades and a minor, and there are two passes to me. I'm short in spades, so I can't sell out. But I can't double without diamond support, so I bid three clubs. LHO doubles for takeout. He is probably either 5-3-4-1 or 4-3-5-1. Partner bids three spades. Oh, really? You were willing to sell to two spades, but now you want to drive to game?

I can stop spades but not diamonds, but we don't have room to explore. I bid three notrump, hoping either partner can take care of diamonds or West doesn't find the lead. Everyone passes. West, of course, leads his singleton deuce of clubs. Who needs stoppers?

	NORTH Robot ♠ 7 6 4 ♥ K J 7 ♦ K 10 8 ♣ Q 10 9 6
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ A Q ♥ Q 9 3 2 ♦ J 7 ♣ A K J 7 4

West	North	East	South
Robot	Robot	Robot	Phillip
		Pass	1 NT
2 ♠	Pass	Pass	3 ♣
Double	3 ♠	Pass	3 NT
(All pass)

If I'm right about West's shape, I have three heart tricks. Five clubs and the spade ace give me nine. One or two diamond tricks will bring me up to ten or eleven.

West surely has the spade king. Even if he's determined to lead passively, a spade from a long suit headed by the jack would be a better passive lead than a singleton in my suit. The location of the diamond honors is less certain. Could West have

♠ K J 10 x  ♥ A x x  ♦ Q 9 x x x  ♣ x ?

Probably not. How about

♠ K J 10 x  ♥ A x x  ♦ A 9 x x x  ♣ x ?

Maybe. It still seems a bit light for this auction. But if he does have that hand and I lead a diamond to the ten, trying for eleven tricks, East can win and shift to a spade holding me to nine. At some point I'll need to decide whether to risk that or to settle for ten tricks by leading a diamond to king. But I'll worry about that later. First I need to knock out the heart ace.

I play the club nine from dummy, East plays the three, and I overtake with the jack. I play the deuce of hearts. West hops with the ace, and East follows with the four. West shifts to the deuce of diamonds, putting me to the test right away.

Is there any possibility West doesn't have the diamond ace? I doubt it--and not just because of his bidding. This would be a very strange defense with queen fourth or fifth of diamonds, since he has no reason to believe his partner has the ace. A spade shift, playing his partner for either the ace or queen, would look more attractive. In fact, a spade shift might look more attractive than a shift from just the diamond ace. Probably he has both the ace and the queen. Then a diamond shift would look very attractive, since all he needs to establish his suit is to find his partner with the jack.

Am I confident enough of that inference to play low, trying for eleven tricks at the risk of holding myself to nine? Maybe I don't need to. If West has both diamond honors, perhaps I can come to eleven tricks without risking a finesse against the queen.

What happens if I rise with the king, then cash my heart and club tricks? We come down to this position:

	NORTH Robot ♠ 7 ♥ -- ♦ 10 8 ♣ - -
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ A Q ♥ -- ♦ J ♣ --

To hold king double of spades, West must come down to a stiff diamond. If it's an honor, I endplay him. If not, my jack is high.

I play the diamond king--three--seven. Since I'm not sure whether West is 5-4 or 4-5 in spades and diamonds, West might, on a different layout, bamboozle me by coming down to a stiff king of spades and queen doubleton of diamonds. But on this deal, dummy's diamond ten protects against that. So long as West throws at least one diamond honor, I can exit with a diamond in the end position and score an extra trick one way or another. In fact, even if I'm wrong about the position and East has the diamond queen, exiting with a diamond doesn't hurt. I'll still take ten tricks.

I cash the king and jack of hearts, and everyone follows. On the next two clubs, East follows, and West pitches the spade five and the diamond nine. West has either three spades and three diamonds left or four spades and two diamonds. On the penultimate club, West pitches the spade jack, and East pitches the spade nine. Since this is East's first spade discard, he is probably giving count, so spades were four-four. If my reading is correct, this is the current position:

	NORTH Robot ♠ 7 6 4 ♥ -- ♦ 10 8 ♣ --
WEST Robot ♠ K x ♥ -- ♦ A Q x ♣ --		EAST Robot ♠ x x x ♥ -- ♦ x x ♣ --
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ A Q ♥ Q ♦ J ♣ 7

On the last club, West pitches the diamond ace; East, the spade eight. Here we go. West will hope his partner has the diamond jack and will pitch the queen next. I cash the heart queen and West pitches the diamond queen. Making five.

	NORTH Robot ♠ 7 6 4 ♥ K J 7 ♦ K 10 8 ♣ Q 10 9 6
WEST Robot ♠ K J 10 5 ♥ A 8 5 ♦ A Q 9 4 2 ♣ 2		EAST Robot ♠ 9 8 3 2 ♥ 10 6 4 ♦ 6 5 3 ♣ 8 5 3
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ A Q ♥ Q 9 3 2 ♦ J 7 ♣ A K J 7 4

Plus 460 is worth 88%. Even taking only nine tricks would have been above average, since most of the field didn't reach three notrump. Most often they played some number of clubs or defended two spades.

I never commented on partner's auction. Driving to game was fine. You have to stretch a little when you're under pressure. But it would make more sense to do that stretching on the first round.

Actually, at this vulnerability I wouldn't mind his initial pass at IMPs. I would guess game is slightly better than even money to make, so at matchpoints you must bid it. But the odds are different at IMPs. If I don't reopen, I should have three spades, in which case the Law predicts there are 14 total tricks. The two likeliest results, then, are to collect 300 instead of 400 for a loss of three imps or to collect 200 instead of going minus 50, for a gain of six imps. So if game is only a slight favorite, the imp odds favor defending. 

That may be counter-intuitive, since one typically thinks of IMPs as the form of scoring that rewards bidding games. But that assumes the alternative is playing a partscore. When the alternative is collecting 200 or 300 on defense, the odds change.