Free Super Sunday Daylong - May 29 - Board 10

Board 10
Both vulnerable

♠ K 5 3  ♥ J 8 3  ♦ A K 5  ♣ A 9 5 4

I open with one notrump in second seat. Partner bids four hearts, a transfer to spades. I bid four spades and buy it. West leads the ace of hearts.

	NORTH Robot ♠ A J 9 8 6 2 ♥ K 10 5 ♦ Q J ♣ Q 6
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ K 5 3 ♥ J 8 3 ♦ A K 5 ♣ A 9 5 4

West	North	East	South
Robot	Robot	Robot	Phillip
		Pass	1 NT
Pass	4 ♥	Pass	4 ♠
(All pass)

It's unlikely West would lead the heart ace holding ace-queen. But I don't know whether he's leading from shortness, trying for his own ruff, or from length, hoping to give his partner one. I play the five. East encourages with the nine and I discourage with the three. West shifts to the seven of diamonds. Dummy's queen wins, as East plays the diamond nine.

The fact that West shifted suggests he was not leading a heart from length. If he were, he would have no reason to believe he had not lucked out and caught his partner with a singleton. So I suspect he has a stiff ace or perhaps ace doubleton and decided, since dummy has the spade ace, that there was no point in going after a ruff.

Does the fact that I suspect West has short hearts mean I should play him for trump length and finesse him for the queen? No. To do so would be falling for the Monty Hall Trap. If West chose to lead a heart because he was short, then that knowledge is not as significant as if I had discovered his heart shortness on my own.

Another way to look at it: If West thought leading a short suit was a good idea, he would lead whichever suit he was short in. The fact that that suit happens to be hearts (like the fact that Monty opens specifically door number two) is immaterial. Of course, he might not have a short suit at all, so we can't ignore the information altogether. But the question to ask is not "How should I play spades given West is short in hearts?" Rather it is "How should I play spades given West has some short side suit?"

If you want to calculate that, go ahead. I'm not going to, however, because there are other factors to consider. For one, I'm not even sure West has short hearts. That's merely an inference. So if I were to calculate the odds West had queen of third of spades, I would then have to discount those odds according my confidence in the inference.

Further, queen third of spades might make a short suit lead less attractive to West. If he had some chance of scoring a trump trick without a ruff, another lead might look more appealing.

Taking all these factors into consideration, I see no reason not to cash the ace and king of spades. And I might as well start with the ace to ensure I don't lose two tricks if the suit is four-zero. I cash the ace--four--three--ten. I lead the spade jack and East plays the seven. I see no reason to change my mind. I go up with the king, and West follows with the queen.

If the heart queen and club king are in the same hand, I have the rest. If I had no clue where the heart queen was, I could play it as a criss-cross squeeze. I could I come down to,

	NORTH Robot ♠ -- ♥ K ♦ -- ♣ Q 6
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ -- ♥ J 8 ♦ -- ♣ A

Now I have to guess whether the club king or the heart queen is singleton. But since I'm pretty sure the heart queen in on my right, I can avoid a guess by coming down to,

	NORTH Robot ♠ 2 ♥ -- ♦ -- ♣ Q 6
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ -- ♥ J ♦ -- ♣ A 9

Now I cash the last trump. If East doesn't pitch the heart queen, I pitch my heart jack and hope he had to stiff the club king. That's the line I'll take, although I'll postpone cashing the heart king as long as possible. I might as well leave the crisscross option open in case I change my mind.

I cash the ace and king of diamonds, pitching a heart from dummy. West plays four--ten; East plays eight--three. I play a spade to dummy. West pitches the club eight; East, the club deuce. The opponents are probably giving count with these club pitches. So West has four clubs and East has three.

On the next spade, East pitches the heart six. I pitch the club four; West, the club three. If anyone has two diamonds left, he probably would have pitched one by now. So the diamonds were probably four-four. That makes East 2-4-4-3 and West 2-3-4-4. I'm down to this position:

	NORTH Robot ♠ 6 2 ♥ K ♦ -- ♣ Q 6
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ -- ♥ J 8 ♦ -- ♣ A 9 5

If my construction is correct, each opponent is down to two hearts, one diamond, and two clubs. 

I can cash one more spade before cashing the heart king. On this spade, I pitch a club. Both opponents pitch hearts. East, the four; West, the seven. I cash the heart king. East drops the queen and I claim.

	NORTH Robot ♠ A J 9 8 6 2 ♥ K 10 5 ♦ Q J ♣ Q 6
WEST Robot ♠ Q 10 ♥ A 7 2 ♦ 10 7 6 4 ♣ J 8 7 3		EAST Robot ♠ 7 4 ♥ Q 9 6 4 ♦ 9 8 3 2 ♣ K 10 2
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ K 5 3 ♥ J 8 3 ♦ A K 5 ♣ A 9 5 4

This is worth 100%. That's ridiculous. I know this field doesn't do squeezes. But this one plays itself. All you have to do is cash your tricks. Well, maybe that's not exactly true. You do have to cash all your diamonds before finishing the trumps. I suspect that's where most declarers went wrong. 

Incidentally, note that West led the heart ace from neither shortness nor length. So I was right not to place too much confidence in my inference.