Free Weekly Instant Tournament - September 9 - Board 3

Board 3
Opponents vulnerable

If the September 9 Free Weekly Instant Tournament is still available, give it a try before reading on.

I pick up this hand in first seat:

♠ A 10 4 3  ♥ K J 6  ♦ Q 5  ♣ A Q 7 3

I open with one notrump and buy it. West leads the six of spades.

	NORTH Robot ♠ Q 8 5 ♥ 10 5 ♦ A J 9 8 6 ♣ 10 9 6
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ A 10 4 3 ♥ K J 6 ♦ Q 5 ♣ A Q 7 3

West	North	East	South
Robot	Robot	Robot	Phillip
			1 NT
(All pass)

The deuce is missing, so the lead could be from a five-card suit. It might also be from a doubleton. The robots like short-suit leads against notrump.

I have or can easily develop two spade tricks, one club, one heart, and two diamonds. Six tricks. I need one more to make this contract. I might find a second club trick if I guess which honor to finesse against. Or I might find several extra tricks in diamonds.

There is a problem with going after diamonds, however. If the spade lead was from shortness, I might have no dummy entry. I can try to keep communications by leading the queen and ducking if it's covered. Now if the ten drops, I have four diamond tricks. But if the queen isn't covered and holds, it's not clear how to proceed. Still, I see no better approach than riding the diamond queen, so I'll worry about that if it happens.

I play a low spade from dummy and East plays the jack. The fact that East played the jack increases the likelihood that the lead was from shortness. If West has led a doubleton spade, then East will always play the jack. But if West has led fourth best, then, by the Rule of Eleven, East has only one card higher than the six. So there is a good chance East doesn't have the jack to play. This is essentially a restricted choice argument. Of course it holds only because West is at least as likely to lead a short suit as not. Against an opponent who almost always chooses his longest suit, this argument would not be valid.

I win with the spade ace and lead the diamond queen. West plays the seven. Against a human, I might assume that either the seven is an honest count card or West has the king. It's dangerous for West to give false count without the king, since his partner needs to know how long to hold up. A robot, however, could play the seven from any holding. Sometimes they give accurate count when declarer attacks a suit; sometimes they don't.

I play low from dummy, and East takes the king. He would probably duck with king third, so I suspect he has either king doubleton or king-ten fourth. If I am right that West is short in spades, the former is more likely. It is tempting, therefore, to lead a diamond to the nine when I get in. Although that is a bit scary. I may wind up taking no diamond tricks at all if I try that.

East shifts to the four of hearts. I play low. West wins with the queen and cashes the ace. East follows with the nine, and I play the jack. West now shifts to the deuce of spades.

What? Why didn't West continue hearts? Could he have king fifth of spades after all and be attempting to establish his suit? Hardly. If that were his plan, he wouldn't have cashed the heart ace. So he must have a different reason for shifting to spades.

He would surely continue hearts if he had ace-queen fourth or fifth and the club king,  Even with ace-queen third of hearts and the club king, setting up heart tricks for his partner would look like a better idea than knocking out his partner's entry. The only way this play makes sense is if West is afraid the defense might lose the spade king if he doesn't cash it. Perhaps he has something like,

♠ 6 2  ♥ A Q x x  ♦ 10 x x x  ♣ x x x.

Since the robots assume I'm double-dummy, he would expect me to finesse against his diamond ten and run the suit. So if I have four club tricks, he will lose his partner's spade king if he doesn't cash it. One of dummy's spades will go on my heart king; the other, on my long club. While this construction might not be exactly right, I can be fairly certain the club king is onside--and probably the jack as well. Abandoning the heart suit makes no sense if West has a club trick.

There is no reason to play the spade queen from dummy. If I play low, East may take the king, giving me two spade tricks. I play low, and East plays the king. He, like his partner, must be afraid the defense will lose the spade king if he doesn't take it. This is further confirmation that the club king is onside. The defense, however, gives me more credit than I deserve in assuming I'm going to pick up the diamond suit. Despite their fears to the contrary, I can't see their cards. While I'm inclined to finesse West for the diamond ten, I haven't made up my mind yet.

East continues with the spade nine, and West discards the heart eight. I win with dummy's queen and lead the club ten. East covers with the jack, I play the queen, and West follows with the deuce.

Which major should I cash first? I already know how spades split. I might as well test the hearts. I cash the heart king, and West follows with the seven. I don't need dummy's fifth diamond. Nine doubleton of clubs in dummy might prove useful. It's hard to see how, but it doesn't hurt to hold onto it for one more round. I pitch a diamond, and East discards his last spade.

Wow! I wasn't expecting that. So West began with six hearts? I've changed my mind about finessing him for the diamond ten. East is 4-2 in the majors and probably 4-3 in the minors (on the assumption that he would have ducked the diamond with king third). This is the current position, with East presumably holding king-ten third of diamonds and king doubleton of clubs.

	NORTH Robot ♠ -- ♥ -- ♦ A J 9 ♣ 9 6
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ 10 ♥ -- ♦ 5 ♣ A 7 3

I suspect I'm going to lose the last trick. Or maybe not. If East has  king-eight of clubs, the spade ten will squeeze him, and I'll take the rest.

I cash the spade ten. West discards the heart three, I discard a club from dummy, and East discards the club five. Oh, well. As expected, the diamond ten doesn't drop. I lose trick thirteen to West's club eight.

	NORTH Robot ♠ Q 8 5 ♥ 10 5 ♦ A J 9 8 6 ♣ 10 9 6
WEST Robot ♠ 6 2 ♥ A Q 8 7 3 2 ♦ 7 2 ♣ 8 4 2		EAST Robot ♠ K J 9 7 ♥ 9 4 ♦ K 10 4 3 ♣ K J 5
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ A 10 4 3 ♥ K J 6 ♦ Q 5 ♣ A Q 7 3

Plus 120 is worth 79%.

Most declarers took only seven tricks for a variety of reasons. One particularly interesting error: When West cashed his hearts and shifted to the spade deuce, one declarer went up with the queen, allowing East the take the king and continue the suit. Declarer can still manage an overtrick, but it requires accurate card-reading. Playing low from dummy gives East the opportunity to make things easy for you by taking his king.

If West had king fifth of spades, rising the the king would be a sensible tactical move, preventing West from establishing his suit. But, as we saw, that's impossible. Declarer missed the inference that West would not cash the heart ace if he had a spade suit to establish.