Free Weekly Instant Tournament - November 18 - Board 5

Board 5
Our side vulnerable

♠ A Q J 10 2  ♥ A 2  ♦ A 10 9 3  ♣ 10 8

Two passes to me. I open with one spade. Partner responds with two clubs (Drury), showing 10 to 12 support points and at least three spades. RHO doubles, showing a good club suit.

I don't need much for game. King fourth of spades and king doubleton of diamonds is enough, and that's not even close to a two-club bid. What do I need for a slam? King fourth of spades, king-queen of hearts, the club ace, and a doubleton diamond? That's not possible, since that's an opening bid. And even if it were possible, it would be too aggressive to make a slam move. You don't want to invite a slam unless it's virtually laydown opposite a perfect minimum.

I bid four spades, which ends the auction. West leads the club queen.

	NORTH Robot ♠ K 7 5 3 ♥ K 10 5 4 ♦ K J 4 ♣ 7 6
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ A Q J 10 2 ♥ A 2 ♦ A 10 9 3 ♣ 10 8

West	North	East	South
Robot	Robot	Robot	Phillip
	Pass	Pass	1 ♠
Pass	2 ♣	Double	4 ♠
(All pass)

I have two club losers. If I can find the diamond queen, I can take the rest. Perhaps I can exploit the robots' tendency to assume I'm double-dummy and to cover an honor with an honor any time it might gain a trick.

If I lead the diamond ten out of my hand, can I assume West will cover? No, I can't. Whether he covers or not, I can take three diamond tricks, then ruff the fourth one. There is no reason for West to cover.

How about East? If I lead the jack from the dummy, will he cover? With queen doubleton or third he will, since it might promote his partner's ten. The fact that I'm unlikely to lead the diamond jack unless I hold the ten myself won't occur to him. With queen fourth, however, he might not cover. If he works out I have four diamonds, then covering with queen fourth can't gain unless he has the eight. Still, it appears my best chance at finding the diamond queen is to lead the jack from dummy. If it isn't covered, I'll take the ace and finesse against West.

East plays the club five on his partner's queen, and I drop the eight. West continues with the nine of clubs to his partner's king. There is no reason for East to break a red suit. He will probably shift to a trump. He does. He plays the spade six. I play the ten, and West discards the heart three.

The robots' first discard is usually honest count, so it appears West has five hearts. I know from East's double of two clubs that West has at most four clubs, so West is probably either 0-5-4-4 or 0-5-5-3. East might have shifted to a stiff diamond at trick three, since for all he knows his partner has the ace, so that eliminates the latter possibility. My working assumption is that West is 0-5-4-4.

The fact that I have to draw four rounds of trump changes things. Since I can no longer ruff the fourth diamond in dummy, I can't afford to start the suit by leading the jack. If West has queen fourth, I'll need to take a first-round finesse to pick up the suit. No. I'm wrong. Three diamond tricks are enough, since West gets squeezed in the red suits. This will be the position after I win the third round of diamonds in dummy:

	NORTH Robot ♠ -- ♥ K 10 5 4 ♦ -- ♣ --
WEST Robot ♠ -- ♥ ? ? x ♦ Q ♣ --		EAST Robot ♠ -- ♥ ? x ♦ -- ♣ A x
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ 2 ♥ A 2 ♦ 8 ♣ --

I now lead a heart to the ace, cash the last trump, and West is squeezed. This means I can still afford the fishing play of leading the diamond jack.

But first I have to draw trump. Standard technique is to play your cards so that the defender making discards must play first. It's better to force him to play before he sees his partner's card. So I play the spade three from dummy on this trick, then lead the spade jack. West discards the diamond six. This looks like a count card from four, confirming my suspicion that West is 0-5-4-4. It also suggests the diamond queen is on my right, since West might be reluctant to pitch from queen fourth. Although perhaps he sees the squeeze coming and knows it doesn't matter.

I follow to this trick with the spade five from dummy, then lead the spade queen from my hand. West discards the diamond deuce. If my construction is correct, the remaining diamonds are two-two. I play the spade seven from dummy, continuing to leave the lead in my hand. I now lead the spade deuce, West discards the diamond five, and I win in dummy with the king.

There are only three diamonds left. They are probably one-two. But I might as well assume my construction is wrong. Sometimes the hardest problems occur when you are 98% sure you know what is going on and it makes no difference what you do. You should always assume it makes a difference. Even if there is only a 2% chance it matters, it's important to work out how to cater to that 2%.

Leading the diamond jack from dummy isn't going to work anymore, since East no longer has any reason to cover. So if someone has three diamonds, I must decide who it is and cash the right honor first.

Who might it be? If it's East, then West is either 0-7-3-3 or 0-6-3-4. The latter is inconsistent with West's low heart discard. In addition, East would have shifted to a stiff heart at trick three.

Could West be 0-7-3-3? With that, he might have bid something at favorable vulnerability. And holding seven hearts, he might have worked out to give his partner a heart ruff at trick two--or at least have led the club jack to retain the lead.

If West has all the diamonds, then he is 0-5-6-2. Again, he might have bid with that hand. But I see nothing in the defense or carding inconsistent with this layout. It's the least unlikely of the unlikely scenarios, so I want to cash the diamond ace.

I lead the diamond jack to the ace. As expected, everyone follows, so I claim. (East did cover by the way, perhaps guarding against my having started with three small.)

	NORTH Robot ♠ K 7 5 3 ♥ K 10 5 4 ♦ K J 4 ♣ 7 6
WEST Robot ♠ -- ♥ Q 9 7 6 3 ♦ 8 6 5 2 ♣ Q J 9 2		EAST Robot ♠ 9 8 6 4 ♥ J 8 ♦ Q 7 ♣ A K 5 4 3
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ A Q J 10 2 ♥ A 2 ♦ A 10 9 3 ♣ 10 8

Plus 650 is worth 79%. A number of declarers found a way to take only ten tricks, often by taking an early diamond finesse against West. In general, one should postpone critical decisions as long as possible, since you may get information that will prompt you to change your mind. Sometimes taking a finesse early is appropriate. You may have communication problems. Or you may decide that, should the finesse lose, the defense is more apt to make a mistake if you lose it early. Neither of those considerations applies here. Taking an early finesse is a clear error.