Free Weekly Instant Tournament - February 17 - Board 2

Board 2
Our side vulnerable

♠ A 6 2  ♥ A 8 7 6  ♦ K 9 3  ♣ A 4 2

Pass on my right. I open with one notrump. Partner bids four diamonds, a transfer to hearts. I bid four hearts and everyone passes. LHO leads the king of clubs.

	NORTH Robot ♠ Q 9 3 ♥ Q 10 9 5 3 2 ♦ A ♣ J 10 9
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ A 6 2 ♥ A 8 7 6 ♦ K 9 3 ♣ A 4 2

West	North	East	South
Robot	Robot	Robot	Phillip
		Pass	1 NT
Pass	4 ♦	Pass	4 ♥
(All pass)

Thanks to this lead, I have only one club loser. I can pitch one of dummy's spades on my diamond king, leaving me with one spade loser. So to make this, I need to hold my hearts losers to one.

I can guarantee at most one heart loser by playing a low heart from dummy and covering whatever card East plays. But there are two problems with that line. (1) I lose a trick unnecessarily if West has a stiff king. And (2) If West wins with a stiff king or jack, he may be able to give his partner a club ruff. It would be embarrassing to go down in a cold contract by taking a "safety play."

At IMPs, I wouldn't care about (1), but (2) would be a concern. A stiff king or jack in West's hand is a twice as likely as a void. So if I judge the risk of a club ruff is more than 50%, the deep finesse is wrong. 

Since I'm playing matchpoints, I don't need to bother making that judgment. I expect everyone to be in game. So consideration (1) all by itself makes cashing the heart ace marginally better than the deep finesse. Once you consider (2) as well, it's not even close. Cashing the heart ace is the percentage play.

The next thing to consider: Is there is any way to avoid the spade loser? Can I strip the hand and endplay somebody?

Suppose I win with the club ace, play a diamond to dummy and a heart to the ace. Everyone follows low. I cash the diamond king, pitching a spade from dummy, and ruff a diamond. For the endplay to work, I need the hand I toss in to have the spade king. But I also need him to have no small club to exit with.  I have two ways to play for such a layout. I can exit with a club, hoping West began with king-queen doubleton, or I can exit with a trump, hoping East wins the trick and began with a singleton club. Neither seems likely, but it's worth a shot.

I play a low club from dummy. East plays the club seven, and I win with the ace. I play a diamond to dummy--deuce--ace--queen. Now a low heart. East plays the four, I play the ace, and West discards the club three.

So much for the percentage play. Now I have two heart losers, so I need the endplay to make my contract. I cash the diamond king--eight--spade three--diamond five. I ruff a diamond in dummy. West plays the six; East, the ten. This is the position

	NORTH Robot ♠ Q 9 ♥ Q 10 9 5 ♦ -- ♣ J 10
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ A 6 2 ♥ 8 7 6 ♦ -- ♣ 4 2

West, holding king-queen third of clubs, would not have pitched his only safe exit card, so I can't endplay West. My only chance is that East began with a stiff club. I play a trump. East cashes his two trumps and exits with the diamond jack. I ruff in my hand, pitching a spade from dummy, and drive the club queen. Making four.

	NORTH Robot ♠ Q 9 3 ♥ Q 10 9 5 3 2 ♦ A ♣ J 10 9
WEST Robot ♠ J 10 ♥ -- ♦ 8 7 6 4 2 ♣ K Q 8 6 5 3		EAST Robot ♠ K 8 7 5 4 ♥ K J 4 ♦ Q J 10 5 ♣ 7
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ A 6 2 ♥ A 8 7 6 ♦ K 9 3 ♣ A 4 2

Making four hearts is worth 93%. Most of the field is in four hearts going down, which isn't surprising. You have to have the foresight to cash the diamond ace at trick two. If you cash the heart ace first, you no longer have the entries to strip the hand.

I was lucky to find East with a stiff club. But good luck does you no good if you don't set yourself up to take advantage of it. A friend once told me that's a valuable life lesson that she learned from bridge.

Two declarers made four hearts, but neither with the line I took. One declarer took the pseudo-safety play in the trump suit. When that worked, she should have made an overtrick on the endplay. But, perhaps blinded by her elation at getting the trumps right, she failed to see the endplay and made only four.

The other declarer tried an interesting gambit. She ducked the opening club lead. In theory, the duck gives away a club trick. But how can West play you to have done such a thing? Looking at jack-ten-nine of clubs in dummy, he will surely conclude his partner has the ace and will continue the suit, giving the trick back.

What, then, have you gained? If the other cards are favorable, you can now endplay East when he has a doubleton club, which is twice as likely as a singleton. I like this line. I wish I had thought of it.

West did, in fact, continue clubs. When East ruffed, declarer must have had a moment of panic. Unless the ruff was with a natural trump trick, the gambit had backfired. Fortunately it was (at least on a normal handling of the trump suit), so the duck broke even. Since the endplay was intact, declarer made the game. (Actually, East exited with a spade, giving away the contract immediately. But I assume declarer would have executed the endplay had the defense put her to the test.That was obviously her plan, else the duck at trick one made no sense.)

I left unanswered the question of how to play the heart suit at IMPs. The critical question is, if West has a stiff king or jack of hearts, what is the chance of running into a club ruff? If it is better than 50%, the "safety play" isn't safe.

If we assume West has the club queen, there are five ways for him to hold six clubs, ten ways to hold five, ten ways to hold four, five ways to hold three, and one way to hold two. So at a first approximation, the chance of a club ruff is 15 to 16. It's actually a little less than that, since these cases are not equally likely. But there is another factor to consider. King-queen third is not an attractive lead. Even king-queen fourth without the ten or nine isn't especially attractive. If we factor in that consideration, cashing the trump ace becomes a stand-out at IMPs as well.