Free Weekly Instant Tournament - Apr 28 - Board 1

Board 1
Neither vulnerable

♠ J 9  ♥ K J 9 2  ♦ A K 5 4  ♣ K J 8

Two passes to me. I open with one notrump, partner transfers to two spades then bids three notrump, which I pass. LHO leads the eight of diamonds.

	NORTH Robot ♠ A K 8 6 3 ♥ 5 4 ♦ Q 6 3 2 ♣ Q 3
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ J 9 ♥ K J 9 2 ♦ A K 5 4 ♣ K J 8

West	North	East	South
Robot	Robot	Robot	Phillip
	Pass	Pass	1 NT
Pass	2 ♥	Pass	2 ♠
Pass	3 NT	(All pass)

The diamond eight can't be lowest from four (assuming West would lead the jack from J1098), so unless it is a singleton, diamonds are splitting. That gives me four diamond tricks, two spades, and two clubs (after knocking out the ace). While it looks natural to attack dummy's long suit for additional tricks, that's not necessarily the best plan. It depends on what my objective is.

If I am content to take one more trick, it might be better to attack hearts. Whatever heart tricks the opponents have, they can probably take whether I lead the suit or not. But if I attack spades, I may set up tricks for the defense that they would be unable to take by themselves.

Say, for example, I win the diamond in my hand and lead the spade jack. It loses to East's queen, and East switches to a heart. I play the jack. West wins with the queen, returns a heart to his partner's ace, and East plays another heart. Now what? The defense has already taken three tricks, and I still have to knock out the club ace. Taking nine tricks before they take five is going to be problematic. I would be in much better shape if I hadn't lost a trick to the spade queen.

Still, this is matchpoints, and it is a contract everyone should be in. So I'm not content to make my contract. If I can manage four spade tricks, I have a shot at ten or eleven tricks. And I should be able to take four spade tricks more than half the time. So I'm going to try to set up the spade suit.

What's the best way to attack spades? One possibility is to lead the spade jack from my hand. If it's covered, I win and lead a spade back to the nine. If the jack loses to the queen on my right, I cash the ace and king, hoping to drop the ten. Ignoring five-one breaks, this takes four tricks whenever the queen is onside or the ten drops in three rounds. So it loses only to queen doubleton or queen-ten fourth on my right.

Another possibility is to lead toward my jack. If East plays low, I insert the nine. If this loses to the ten, I finesse West for the queen. If I can count on East to hop with queen doubleton or queen third, this plan loses only to queen empty fourth on my right. This would not be a good plan against an opponent capable of ducking with queen doubleton or queen third. But the robots assume declarer is double-dummy, so they will never duck with those holdings. Against a human, you would have to make a judgment. But against robots, the latter line is clearly right.

One problem with this line is it requires two dummy entries. If diamonds break, I have them. The diamond six will be a fourth-round entry. Against a human pair, I wouldn't be worried. But the robots do lead singletons against notrump occasionally. If this lead is a singleton, I may want to change my mind about how I play the spade suit. So perhaps I should test the diamonds before attacking spades. If the six of diamonds isn't going to be an entry, I may change my plan.

But how do I test diamonds? Suppose I win the first diamond in my hand, then lead to the queen. It turns out diamonds split, so I proceed with my plan of leading a low spade off dummy. East hops with the queen and plays a third diamond. This kills the last sure entry to my hand. I may have just cut myself off from the third club. I suppose I could unblock dummy's diamond six to give myself a hand entry. But the whole point of this line was to use the six as a dummy entry.

To keep sufficient entries to both hands, I can't afford to play an extra rounds of diamonds. I'll just have to win the first trick with the queen and hope they split. If they don't, perhaps West has the club ace and I get to dummy via the club queen.

I play the diamond queen from dummy. East plays the seven. That's a worrisome card. It's the only diamond lower than West's eight, so it means West doesn't have a doubleton. If we assume he would have led top of a sequence, his only possible holding are a stiff eight or J98. Since J98 is not a particularly attractive lead, a stiff diamond is starting to look likely.

I lead a low spade from dummy. East hops with the queen, and West follows with the seven.

East shifts to the heart ace. I play low, and West follows with the seven. East continues with the heart six. I see no point in hopping. I put in the jack, and West follows with the eight. We've reached this position, with the lead in my hand:

	NORTH Robot ♠ A K 8 6 ♥ -- ♦ 6 3 2 ♣ Q 3
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ J ♥ K 9 ♦ A K 5 ♣ K J 8

East is a passed hand and has shown up with the spade queen and the ace-queen of hearts. So the club ace is on my left, and I don't need diamonds to split any more. I can cash the spade jack and lead a club toward the queen. If West hops, he scores the third trick for the defense, and I'll have the rest: four spades, three diamonds, two hearts, and a club. Ten tricks.

If West doesn't hop, I'll take eleven tricks. If diamonds split, the fourth diamond is my eleventh trick. And if they don't split, I have East caught in a red-suit squeeze, assuming he has the long hearts.

Unfortunately, I can't imagine West's ducking the club ace if I lead low. He pretty much knows that's the last trick for the defense, so he has nothing to gain by ducking.

Is there any chance I can get him to duck the ace if I lead the club king? Suppose diamonds split and the six is an entry. If West doesn't know that, perhaps he will be afraid of letting me get to dummy with the club queen. If I unblock the spade jack then lead the king of clubs, perhaps he will duck to deprive me of the entry.

At this point, I would rather be playing against humans than robots. Robots don't forget which spots have been played. If diamonds split, they will know for certain that the six is an entry, whereas a human might not be sure. Is it possible the defense might think I started with ace-king third of diamonds? This would be a strange way to play the hand if that were the case. But I suppose it doesn't hurt to try. I do have to cash one diamond first, however, just to make sure they do split. If they don't, leading the club king would be a mistake. 

I cash the diamond ace--nine--deuce--ten. Now the spade jack. Everyone follows. Finally, the club king. West, unsurprisingly, doesn't fall for it. He takes his ace. Making four.

	NORTH Robot ♠ A K 8 6 3 ♥ 5 4 ♦ Q 6 3 2 ♣ Q 3
WEST Robot ♠ 7 4 ♥ 10 8 7 ♦ J 9 8 ♣ A 10 6 5 2		EAST Robot ♠ Q 10 5 2 ♥ A Q 6 3 ♦ 10 7 ♣ 9 7 4
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ J 9 ♥ K J 9 2 ♦ A K 5 4 ♣ K J 8

Plus 430 is worth 89%. East had queen-ten fourth of spades, so the normal play in the spade suit would not have worked. Most of the other declarers in three notrump either made exactly three or went down. I was rewarded for insulting my opponent. 

 

Update on 1NT Study

I mentioned in an earlier post that I was keeping records of my results with balanced 14-point hands. I had been advised that it was right to open these hands with one notrump in robot individuals, and I was skeptical. Some readers asked me to keep them advised of my findings.

Originally I was going to compare my results with the average of those who opened with one notrump. I've changed my mind about that approach. For one thing, it proved to be a lot of work. In some tournaments, it meant reviewing what happened at 65 other tables. For another, it's not clear that the comparison would even be meaningful. The average of what other players did is probably a poor proxy for what my own result would have been had I opened with one notrump.

What I have decided to do instead is to keep track of my results on all balanced hands with 14 to 17 HCP. My one notrump openings with 15 to 17 HCP will serve as the control. If I do worse on average with the 14-point hands where I open with one of a suit, it suggests I'm going something wrong. There is no guarantee that I would have done better had I opened with one notrump, but there is at least a suspicion.

The study has just begun, but the preliminary results are already interesting. Incidentally, I am excluding hands with a five-card suit, since it's not clear how to evaluate them. Should a 14-point hand with a five-card suit be treated as 14 points or 15 points? Simply throwing those hands out avoids the need to answer that question. So all these hands are "4432" or "4333" patterns:

HCP	Opening	Observations	Avg Result
14	1C/D	13	60.8%
15	1NT	8	77.7%
16	1NT	5	76.6%
17	1NT	11	77.4%

An unusual feature of this study is, if I decide to start opening one notrump with 14-point hands, I don't have to worry that my average will go down with 15- to 17-point hands. In real life, partner might change how he responds if I widen my range. But the robots are oblivious to my habits, so they will continue to bid the same way. My results with 15- to 17-point hands should be unaffected.