Sunday, June 25, 2023

Free Weekly Instant Tournament - June 23 - Board 2

Board 2
Our sides vulnerable

♠ K   A J 5 3   K 9 4 3 2  ♣ K 10 3  

RHO passes.

1-4-5-3 is an awkward pattern in standard methods. My plan is to start with one diamond and rebid one notrump over partner's likely one-spade response. A one-notrump rebid makes it easier to find a heart fit than a two-diamond rebid would. Partner will expect a doubleton spade, but perhaps the stiff king will be good enough if he insists on playing spades.

I bid one diamond, but it is the opponents, not partner, who bid spades. LHO overcalls with one spade, partner makes a negative double, and RHO raises to two spades.

The right call is three hearts. Three hearts does not show a hand that would have raised a one-heart response to three. It might be a hand that is barely worth a jump raise, but with most jump raises, you should simply bid game.

I know some play good-bad two notrump here, but there are three reasons I don't like that convention.

First of all, the name is silly. Why should I trust the judgment of someone who can't think of a better name?

Second, I think a natural two notrump bid is useful in this auction, and I'm disinclined to give it up.

Third, and most importantly, I dislike bids that show a desire to compete but don't tell partner what strain I want to compete in. If I bid a meaningless two notrump and LHO bids three spades, how is partner supposed to know what to do? Whether it's right for him to bid or not will often depend on which suit I was intending to sign off in. In competition, I like to stretch to get my suits into the auction. If that means I have to overbid a little with a good hand, bidding four hearts with a hand that isn't quite worth a game drive, then so be it. An aggressive four heart bid is a good tactical call anyway, since it puts pressure on the opponents. It's hard to know whether or not to save when even declarer isn't sure whether the game is making.

Still, even though the right call is three hearts, I haven't had good results bidding aggressively opposite robots in this position. They tend not to give me much leeway, raising to game for no particular reason. Fortunately, I have noticed that the robots balance quite aggressively in this position. Responder tends to double again even with a minimum for their first double. So I'm not too worried about selling out to two spades. Opposite a robot partner I think it's safer to pass, intending to bid three hearts over his likely reopening double.

I pass, LHO passes, and partner bids three clubs. I correct to three hearts, and everyone passes. LHO leads the four of clubs.


NORTH
Robot
♠ J 9 7
K 10 7 4
6
♣ A 9 8 5 2






SOUTH
Phillip
♠ K
A J 5 3
K 9 4 3 2
♣ K 10 3


West North East South
Robot Robot Robot Phillip
Pass 1
1 ♠ Double 2 ♠ Pass
Pass 3 ♣ Pass 3
(All pass)

See what I mean? It wouldn't occur to me to act again with partner's hand. You invited partner to bid a second suit and he declined. Why should he be wrong? And if I did act with this pattern, I would double. Three trumps and a singleton in partner's suit suggests defending, so I want to give partner that option. I'm about a king shy of a second double, however. So I would simply pass. The robots get this auction backwards. Opener is better placed than responder to decide whether to compete, so opener needs to be free to take aggressive action and responder should respect his decision.

Now to the problem at hand. The first thing to note is that the opponents have broken the Law. They sold to three hearts with nine spades between them. That observation may come in handy when I have more information and try to construct the layout.

The club lead is probably a singleton. Leading dummy's longest suit is not usually a good idea. I play low from dummy, RHO plays the queen, and I win with the king.

The robots don't falsecard here, so I was wrong that the lead is a singleton. West has led from jack third or fourth. I suspect fourth. Leading from jack third in dummy's suit in preference to a suit your side has bid and raised would be a very strange choice. Leading from jack fourth, hoping to find partner with shortness, makes more sense. So West's likeliest patterns are 5-1-3-4 (making East 4-4-4-1) or 5-2-2-4 (making East 4-3-5-1). I'm inclined to assume the former. A four-one heart break would explain why the opponents sold out. With a trump stack, East might have decided to ignore his fourth spade and take his chances on defense. So my working assumption is East is  4-4-4-1.

It looks right to start with a heart to the king, then a heart to my jack. If West shows out as I expect him to, I can cash the hearts ace and start running clubs. East will ruff in at some point and I'll wind up with four heart tricks in my hand, one ruff in dummy, and four clubs tricks. Nine in all. 

If West follows low to the heart finesse, I can draw the last trump and make an overtrick.

Am I in trouble if the heart finesse loses? Now West can give his partner a club ruff. But that means I no longer have to draw the third trump, so I can score two ruffs in dummy. I take three heart tricks in my hand, four club tricks, and two ruffs. Nine tricks.

I lead the heart three--six--king--deuce. Now the heart four--eight--jack. West pitches the three of spades. The spade deuce is still out. Probably East has it and West has pitched lowest from five. The robots like to pitch count cards.

I cash the heart ace, and West pitches the six of clubs. Now to run the clubs. I lead the club ten and pass it. East pitches the five of diamonds, That's the lowest diamond and the robots seldom falsecard on their first discard in a suit. Am I wrong about the layout? Does East have five diamonds? That makes him 3-4-5-1 and West 6-1-2-4. It's hard to believe West would sell out with a six-four. Perhaps East has queen-jack-ten-five of diamonds and didn't want to waste an honor giving count.

I lead a club to dummy's ace, and East pitches the spade four. The deuce is still out. That's consistent with either 4-4-4-1 or 3-4-5-1. In the former case, the four was the start of an echo. In the latter case, West's three was the start of an echo. On the fourth club, I pitch my spade king. East pitches the spade eight; West, the spade five. Somebody is still clutching the deuce.

On the last club. East finally decides to ruff, as West pitches the spade six. We have reached the following position with East on lead. I need two tricks to make my contract, and I can make both trumps separately. So an overtrick is the only concern.


NORTH
Robot
♠ J 9 7
 10
6
♣ --






SOUTH
Phillip
♠ --
 5
K 9 4 3
♣ --

East shifts to the diamond queen. He probably can't have both the ace and queen of diamonds on the auction, so I have nothing to gain by covering. I play low, and West follows with the ten. That looks like ace-ten doubleton. Perhaps West did sell out with six spades. If so, the defense is in trouble. If East continues diamonds, West's ace will ruff out. If he shifts to a low spade, I will pitch a diamond, letting West win the trick. He will then have to set up either my diamond king or dummy's spade jack.

East continues with the diamond seven. I insert the nine. West plays the ace and I ruff in dummy. Making four.


NORTH
Robot
♠ J 9 7
K 10 7 4
6
♣ A 9 8 5 2


WEST
Robot
♠ A Q 8 6 3 2
6
A 10
♣ J 7 6 4


EAST
Robot
♠ 10 5 4
Q 9 8 2
Q J 8 7 5
♣ Q


SOUTH
Phillip
♠ K
A J 5 3
K 9 4 3 2
♣ K 10 3

100%! East could have stopped the overtrick by ruffing the second club and playing a spade while West still had a club exit. Now I have no way to score a spade or diamond trick. The overtrick was immaterial, however. I was the only one to go plus. If you bid three hearts over two spades, partner raises to four with his misfitting minimum. So most of the field was in four hearts, and no one managed to make it.

This was my second 100% in this set. I scored 100% for plus 150 on board one. I suspect it will be downhill from here.

Sunday, June 18, 2023

Free Weekly Instant Tournament - June 16 - Board 1

Board 1
Neither side vulnerable

♠ K 10 8 2   A Q 3   K 9 3  ♣ A 10 7  

Two passes to me. I open with one notrump. Partner bids two clubs, Stayman. I bid two spades, and partner bids two notrump, invitational. Partner might not have four hearts. (The tooltip says "may not," but I don't think that's true.)

I go on to three notrump, and West leads the heart ten.


NORTH
Robot
♠ 5 4
K 9 6 2
Q J 8 6
♣ Q 8 5






SOUTH
Phillip
♠ K 10 8 2
A Q 3
K 9 3
♣ A 10 7


West North East South
Robot Robot Robot Phillip
Pass Pass 1 NT
Pass 2 ♣ Pass 2 ♠
Pass 2 NT Pass 3 NT
(All pass)

Since I have the heart nine, the ten must be from shortness. So I have only three heart tricks. I probably need three diamond tricks to make this, so I'll assume I have them. The club ace brings me up to seven. I need two more. I'll need a second club trick and either a spade trick or an endplay to score the heart nine.

What tricks do the opponents have? They have the diamond ace and will take a club trick when I go after the club suit. I need to hold them to two spade tricks. If I can delay playing the spade suit until I've lost to the diamond ace and club king, then I can lead a spade to the king. If spades are played early, I won't be able to do that, since it will probably allow them to score three spade tricks even if the ace is onside. So if spades are played early, I need to play for jack-nine or queen-nine onside. That will allow me to develop a spade trick while losing only two tricks to the defense.

I play a low heart from dummy. East plays the five. Should I win with the queen or the ace? East knows what the heart suit is, so the only one I can deceive is West. He is more likely to misplace a queen than an ace, so the ace is more deceptive. Often, when playing in notrump, the ace is the wrong card to win the first trick with, because it marks you with a lower honor. With the ace alone, you would typically hold up. Given dummy's heart holding, however, that principle doesn't apply here.

I lead the nine of diamonds, unblocking so I can later finesse West for the ten if I choose to. West plays the four. East takes dummy's queen with the ace and shifts to the three of spades.

As I've already decided, I must play East for honor-nine if spades are played early. While I would prefer to play him for one card rather than two, I can't afford that while I must still lose a trick to the club king. So I play the eight.

West wins with the nine and shifts to the four of hearts. West's decision not to continue spades suggests he has the ace, though that's hardly certain.

I play a low heart from dummy and win with the queen in my hand. East contributes the eight.

Time to work on the club suit. If West has the king of clubs and ducks when I lead toward the queen, perhaps I can endplay him. I'll take the club queen and cash my red-suit winners. Then I need to read the position. I can duck out the spade ace if I believe West has stiffed it, or I can play ace and a club, hoping to endplay him, if he hasn't. Or I can change my mind and play East for the spade ace. For the endplay to work, I will need West to hold the club jack as well as the king or for East to hold jack doubleton.

I lead the club seven from my hand. West scuttles my endplay plans by hopping with the king as East follows with the three. West continues with the six of clubs.

Since endplaying West is no longer an option, it appears I'm going to need the spade ace onside. But perhaps I can postpone the spade play to avoid going down more than one if the ace is offside. Suppose I cash all my winners, reaching this position:


NORTH
Robot
♠ 5
K 9
--
♣ --






SOUTH
Phillip
♠ K 10 2
--
--
♣ --

If East has the spade ace and jack doubleton of hearts left, I can lead a spade and endplay him. In fact, as long as West doesn't have a club winner, I can make this even if East's stiff spade is the queen. When I lead a spade, West can either let East hold the queen and be endplayed or he can overtake and give me two spade tricks in my hand.

My problem now is how to play the diamonds. Do I play from the top or finesse West for the ten? West's likeliest shapes are 4-2-3-4, 4-2-4-3, or 3-2-4-4. There are four ways for East to hold ace-ten third of diamonds and four ways for him to hold ace doubleton. And West is just as likely to hold four of a black suit as to hold three. That means all three cases are equally likely; no weighting is necessary. The finesse is a two-to-one favorite.

Another consideration is that I would prefer East to hold the long club. If he does, as we saw earlier, I don't necessarily need him to have the spade ace. So if West is 4-2-4-3, I have more chances to make than if he is 4-2-3-4. That makes the odds of finessing even better than two to one. Of course, West doesn't have to have one of those three likeliest patterns. But the odds are so heavily in favor of the finesse, factoring in fringe cases won't change the percentage play.

I play a low club from dummy, East plays the jack, and I win with the ace. I cash the diamond king--five--six--seven. Now a low diamond. I intend to finesse, but West plays the ten. That's both good news and bad news. I have four diamond tricks, but it means West probably has the long club, so the winkle isn't going to work. I'll need East to have the spade ace.

I take dummy's diamond jack and cash the eight. East discards the spade six; West, the spade seven. I cash dummy's club queen. East plays the nine; West, the four. We've reached the position above.

East presumably holds two hearts and a singleton spade while West holds two spades and a club. If East's spade is the ace, I can lead a spade and endplay him. If it's the jack, I must cash the heart to get out for down one. If it's the queen, it makes no difference what I do. On a spade lead, West will overtake his partner's queen to cash his club for the setting trick. Then he will have to concede a trick to my spade king. It also makes no difference what I do if East has the long club instead of a spade. If I lead a spade and he shows out, I can duck and score my spade king in the end. The only holdings that matter are a stiff ace and a stiff jack. So I must decide which is more likely.

If East held the spade ace, would he unblock it? I have a non-descript 13 HCP outside the spade suit, so I must have at least three HCP in spades for my three-notrump bid. From a robot's perspective, there is no reason I couldn't have queen-jack of spades instead of the king, in which case he must unblock. Of course, from a human's perspective, it's another matter. With queen-jack-eight of spades, I would not have played the eight on the spade shift. So against a human expert, I'm marked with the king.

Since the robots don't draw inferences from the play, I can be fairly confident my robot opponent would unblock the ace if he held it. This should be a normal contract and the play so far should be the same at most tables, so there is no reason to throw away a trick in a desperate attempt to make this. I cash the heart king and concede down one.


NORTH
Robot
♠ 5 4
K 9 6 2
Q J 8 6
♣ Q 8 5


WEST
Robot
♠ A Q 9 7
10 4
10 5 4
♣ K 6 4 2


EAST
Robot
♠ J 6 3
J 8 7 5
A 7 2
♣ J 9 3


SOUTH
Phillip
♠ K 10 8 2
A Q 3
K 9 3
♣ A 10 7

Minus 50 is worth 57%. Almost everyone was in game and some went down two.

I was arguably a bit careless in the play. I could have tested clubs before making my critical play in diamonds. If East shows out on the third club, I would change my mind about finessing against the diamond ten. I briefly considered that line and rejected it because I didn't want to set up extra tricks for the defense if the finesse lost. But that was probably wrong. The field isn't going to finesse the diamond. If the finesse loses, I have a terrible board anyway. Since losing an extra trick isn't going to matter, the discovery play in clubs must be worthwhile.

Sunday, June 11, 2023

Free Weekly Instant Tournament - June 9 - Board 4

Board 4
Both sides vulnerable

Once again, the board I'm supposed to discuss this week, board 8, has nothing of particular interest. You bid an obvious slam and claim at trick two. So I'll discuss board 4 instead. There should be plenty to say about this board, because it's the one that took me the longest to play.

♠ A 10 6 5   A 6   A 10  ♣ Q 7 6 4 3  

Three passes to me. I open with one club, partner bids one heart, and I rebid one spade, which partner raises to three.  I have 14 HCP, including three aces, plus a side five-card suit. Or, if you prefer,  I have six losers. However you want to look at it, this hand is a clear acceptance. I bid four spades and everyone passes. LHO leads the king of clubs.


NORTH
Robot
♠ K Q 4 3
Q J 7 4
K 6 2
♣ 8 2






SOUTH
Phillip
♠ A 10 6 5
A 6
A 10
♣ Q 7 6 4 3


West North East South
Robot Robot Robot Phillip
Pass Pass Pass 1 ♣
Pass 1 Pass 1 ♠
Pass 3 ♠ Pass 4 ♠
(All pass)

I probably need three-two spades to have any chance to make this. So let's assume that. 

I have only three losers: a heart and two clubs. But coming to ten winners may be difficult. This looks like a deal where I should be counting winners, not losers. If I take two hearts and two diamonds, I'll need six trump tricks to make this. That probably means four trump tricks in one hand and two ruffs in the other. 

East plays the club jack at trick one. Since West might have king-queen of clubs instead of ace-king, East can't afford the jack from jack-small. So this is either a singleton or jack-ten doubleton. It's probably a singleton. Leading from ace-king-nine fourth in my suit would be strange. So I'll assume clubs are five-one.

I expect West to cash the club ace and play a third club for a possible trump promotion. But he doesn't. At trick two, West shifts to the eight of diamonds. That's something of a relief. Now I must decide how to score six trump tricks. With club shortness on my right, I'm not going to be able to score ruffs in dummy. Can I draw trumps in dummy and score two ruffs in my hand?

Say I win with the diamond ace, play a diamond to the king and take a heart finesse. I need to hope it works, since, if West wins, he will surely play ace and a club now. Let's say the queen holds. I then ruff a diamond and cash the heart ace. I'm out of side entries to dummy, so I must return to dummy with ace and a trump. Now I ruff a heart. We've reached the following position. We reach a similar position on a different sequence if East covers the heart queen.


NORTH
Robot
♠ Q 4
 J
--
♣ 8






SOUTH
Phillip
♠ --
--
--
♣ Q 7 6 4

There is one trump outstanding, but I can't get back to dummy to draw it. Since West has four clubs left, East must have the last trump, and I can't avoid a trump promotion.

Perhaps I'm better off hoping West has the heart king. If I can score three heart tricks, I need only one ruff in my hand. 

Suppose I draw three rounds of trumps to put a stop to any trump promotion, then play ace and a heart. If West takes the king, I have ten tricks. If he plays low, I can hope the king ruffs out. So I make this if he has king doubleton or king third. 

What about king fourth? I play ace and a heart. He ducks. I win with the queen and ruff a heart. The king doesn't drop, but I'm still OK, because West has at most two diamonds. I play a diamond to dummy and toss him in with the last heart. He must give me the club queen for my tenth trick.

Given West's failure to overcall with one heart, I'm not gong to worry about king fifth of hearts. So, given my previous assumptions, drawing trump and playing ace and a heart will work any time West has the heart king. That looks like the right line.

Assuming, of course, that it's possible for West to hold the heart king. Is it? That diamond shift at trick two was strange. It set off alarm bells. What could have prompted it?

If West had the heart king, he would be looking at three tricks. Ace and another club would look like an obvious way to try for a fourth. On this layout, it puts me to a guess. If I didn't have the spade ten, it would work by force. Whatever West was trying to accomplish with that diamond shift, I can't see his making it with any hand that includes the heart king.

If East has the heart king, that means my only chance is to score six trump tricks. I already decided scoring four trumps in dummy and two ruffs in my hand is problematic. Perhaps I can score four trumps in my hand and two ruffs in dummy with the king and queen of spades. If West is 2-3-3-5, I can score the low trumps in my hand by ruffing red cards. I may need to find the spade jack onside to score the spade ten.

I play a low diamond from dummy, and East plays the queen. I take my ace and play the diamond ten, West covers with the jack. I win with dummy's king, and East plays the five. Now queen of hearts--ten--six--three. If the opponents are giving count in hearts, then East has king-ten-nine-deuce, making him 3-4-5-1 and West 2-3-3-5 as I had hoped.

I ruff a diamond to my hand. East plays the three; West, the nine. I cash the ace of hearts--five--four--deuce. If my construction is correct, we've reached this position:


NORTH
Robot
♠ K Q 4 3
 J 7
--
♣ 8


WEST
Robot
♠ x x
x
--
♣ A 10 9 x


EAST
Robot
♠ x x x
K 9
x x
♣ --


SOUTH
Phillip
♠ A 10 6
--
--
♣ Q 7 6 4

I've taken five tricks. I need five more

What happens if I exit with a club? If West wins and plays a low club, I pitch a heart and East ruffs. Now trumps are two-two, so five tricks are no problem. I can draw trumps in two rounds and score my remaining three trumps separately. 

What if West wins and plays the club ace? Now my club queen is good, so again five tricks are easy. I ruff with the king, then ace of spades, spade to the queen, leaving one trump outstanding. Now I ruff a heart to my hand and pitch the dummy's last heart on my club queen as East ruffs.

And if West wins and shifts to a trump? That picks up the spade jack, giving me four top spade tricks. All I need to do is ruff a heart with the six for my fifth trick.

The only exit that gives me a problem is a heart. If West plays a heart, I ruff with the six, ruff a club high, then ruff the last heart with the spade ten and hope it holds.

I play a club. West hops with the nine, and East pitches the seven of diamonds. West shifts to the spade seven--three--jack--ace. I ruff a club with the spade king and ruff a heart with the six. That's three tricks, and the ace and queen of spades are two more. Making four.


NORTH
Robot
♠ K Q 4 3
Q J 7 4
K 6 2
♣ 8 2


WEST
Robot
♠ 8 7
8 5 3
J 9 8
♣ A K 10 9 5


EAST
Robot
♠ J 9 2
K 10 9 2
Q 7 5 4 3
♣ J


SOUTH
Phillip
♠ A 10 6 5
A 6
A 10
♣ Q 7 6 4 3

Plus 620 is worth 93%. The spade jack is onside, so I would survive a heart exit in the end position.

Drawing trump and playing West for the heart king is, at first blush, an attractive line. Playing East for the heart king doesn't see you home even if you're right. You still need some luck to avoid a trump loser. But if you play West for the heart king and are right, that's all you need (given our previous assumptions).

Still, that's a line that wouldn't occur to a lot of players. With queen-jack fourth opposite ace doubleton, a player who is counting losers rather than winners might not even consider ace and low toward dummy. After all, that gives up on the possibility of having no heart losers. But unless you can ruff or pitch both of those small hearts, avoiding a heart loser through a finesse against East may not accomplish anything. You will end up losing the fourth round of hearts instead of the second.

If that line does occur to you, the next step is to spurn it by realizing that West's defense virtually marks East with the heart king. The declarers in these free weekly tournament are not typically very good. So, while most of them went down, only one declarer went down by finessing West for the heart king. The rest finessed against East, probably not seeing the alternative, then went down by mishandling the crossruff.

Sunday, June 4, 2023

Free Weekly Instant Tournament - June 1 - Board 7

Board 7
Both sides vulnerable

♠ Q J 6   --   Q J 7 2  ♣ A K Q J 9 4  

I have six club tricks, half a trick each for my two queen-jacks, and half a trick for the fourth diamond. Seven and half in total, just enough for a jump rebid or a reverse. I open with one club. Partner responds with one heart.

I have a choice between three clubs or two diamonds. Which is better? Three clubs emphasizes the quality of my clubs. Two diamonds has two advantages: (A) It makes it easier to find a diamond fit. If we belong in six diamonds for example, a three-club rebid will make it harder to get there. (B) It allows partner to get a heart rebid off his chest. 

To see how (B) can be an advantage, imagine partner has some hand with long hearts and game interest only if we have a heart fit. If I bid three clubs, partner has a problem. He can pass, potentially missing a heart game, or he can bid three hearts, getting overboard if we don't. Two diamonds solves that problem for him. If I bid two diamonds, he can rebid two hearts. Now when I bid three clubs, he knows I don't have three hearts and he can pass comfortably.

In effect, two diamonds works better because it leaves more room. It is often that case that, when faced with a choice of calls in a constructive auction, you should prefer the cheaper one.

This assumes, however, that we are playing standard methods over reverses: Rebidding your suit is forcing one round but could be a weak hand, and your artificial negative (I prefer two spades in this auction, though some would use two notrump) denies five cards in your suit. The robots, however, play a totally unplayable method, where two notrump is the only bid that lets you stop below game. Any other bid, including rebidding your suit, is game forcing.

If I bid two diamonds and partner is unwilling to bid game, these bizarre methods could give him a headache. He must bid two notrump. Now, since my three club bid is forced with most hands, he has no idea my clubs are this good, or even that I have six of them. I might even have three-card heart support. Partner must pick the right partscore with little information. With club shortness, he will be disinclined to pass. I know clubs is a playable strain opposite a singleton, but he doesn't. He might choose three hearts with a broken six-card suit. He might choose three diamonds with three-one in the minors. 


If, instead, I bid three clubs immediately, he knows my suit is self-sufficient. With no game interest, he will pass. He still has the problem mentioned above: With long hearts and game interest only opposite a fit, he won't know what to do. But there is nothing I can do about that. Choosing to rebid two diamonds will no longer solve that problem for him. 

In short, given the methods foisted upon me, two diamonds might work out better if partner has a good hand. But even then it might not matter. Unless we actually belong in diamonds, three clubs will do just fine. If partner has a bad hand, however, three clubs could be a big winner. Three clubs is surely where we belong if we play a partscore, and it may be hard to reach unless I tell partner my clubs are self-sufficient. Playing sensible methods, I would bid two diamonds. But three clubs looks like the better choice under the circumstances.

I bid three clubs, and partner raises to five. Five of a minor is seldom the right spot at matchpoints. But this hand may be an exception. Partner probably has a singleton in one of the pointed suits, so it's not hard to imagine that five clubs makes and three notrump goes down--or that you have only nine tricks in notrump, so that it makes no difference which game you play. In any event, I have no reason to bid further. I pass, and West leads the ace of spades.


NORTH
Robot
♠ 10 4 3
A K 7 6
A 9 8 3
♣ 7 3






SOUTH
Phillip
♠ Q J 6
--
Q J 7 2
♣ A K Q J 9 4


West North East South
Robot Robot Robot Phillip
1 ♣
Pass 1 Pass 3 ♣
Pass 5 ♣ (All pass)

I have no idea why partner chose five clubs with a balanced hand and a doubleton club. Three diamonds looks like the obvious call, over which I would bid three notrump. What will happen in three notrump? After a pointed-suit lead, it will probably make at least four. A heart lead might hold it to nine tricks if the diamond finesse is off. But if the diamond finesse is off, I'm going down in five clubs.

In a normal game, this would be a terrible board. But, since we are all playing with the same partner, perhaps it won't be so bad. Anyone who chooses to rebid three clubs will be subjected to the same five club call. So I should have plenty of company in this contract.

My problem now is to avoid a spade ruff if the lead is from ace doubleton. From East's perspective, his partner might be leading from ace third of spades, but he is unlikely to be leading from ace-jack third or ace-queen third, so I must drop the queen and jack of spades on the first two tricks.

At trick one, East encourages with the spade eight, and I drop the jack. West continues with the nine of spades. East takes the king, and I drop the queen. This probably isn't going to work. East has nothing to try to cash. Even if West isn't ruffing, it can't hurt to play another spade. 

Surprisingly, East doesn't play another spade. He shifts to the five of diamonds. I suspect that's a singleton. East is hoping his partner wins the first club and gives him a ruff. 

I play the queen, which holds. Everyone follows to the first club, so I clam. Making five.


NORTH
Robot
♠ 10 4 3
A K 7 6
A 9 8 3
♣ 7 3


WEST
Robot
♠ A 9 7
J 8 5 4 3
K 10 6 4
♣ 5


EAST
Robot
♠ K 8 5 2
Q 10 9 2
5
♣ 10 8 6 2


SOUTH
Phillip
♠ Q J 6
--
Q J 7 2
♣ A K Q J 9 4

The shift was indeed from a singleton. My falsecards were unnecessary. East knew his partner didn't have a doubleton spade, since I couldn't have four.

As I predicted, this isn't so bad a result as it would be in a normal game. Plus 600 is worth 43%. Had I bid two diamonds instead of three clubs, partner would raise. I would then bid three notrump, which he would pass. I assume I would make four in that contract, which would have been worth 71%.

But I don't see how this result is my fault. Of all the reasons I considered for choosing one action over the other, the possibility that three clubs would induce partner to spurn three notrump with a good balanced hand and no fit wasn't something I could have anticipated.