Free Weekly Instant Tournament - June 16 - Board 1

Board 1
Neither side vulnerable

♠ K 10 8 2  ♥ A Q 3  ♦ K 9 3  ♣ A 10 7

Two passes to me. I open with one notrump. Partner bids two clubs, Stayman. I bid two spades, and partner bids two notrump, invitational. Partner might not have four hearts. (The tooltip says "may not," but I don't think that's true.)

I go on to three notrump, and West leads the heart ten.

	NORTH Robot ♠ 5 4 ♥ K 9 6 2 ♦ Q J 8 6 ♣ Q 8 5
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ K 10 8 2 ♥ A Q 3 ♦ K 9 3 ♣ A 10 7

West	North	East	South
Robot	Robot	Robot	Phillip
	Pass	Pass	1 NT
Pass	2 ♣	Pass	2 ♠
Pass	2 NT	Pass	3 NT
(All pass)

Since I have the heart nine, the ten must be from shortness. So I have only three heart tricks. I probably need three diamond tricks to make this, so I'll assume I have them. The club ace brings me up to seven. I need two more. I'll need a second club trick and either a spade trick or an endplay to score the heart nine.

What tricks do the opponents have? They have the diamond ace and will take a club trick when I go after the club suit. I need to hold them to two spade tricks. If I can delay playing the spade suit until I've lost to the diamond ace and club king, then I can lead a spade to the king. If spades are played early, I won't be able to do that, since it will probably allow them to score three spade tricks even if the ace is onside. So if spades are played early, I need to play for jack-nine or queen-nine onside. That will allow me to develop a spade trick while losing only two tricks to the defense.

I play a low heart from dummy. East plays the five. Should I win with the queen or the ace? East knows what the heart suit is, so the only one I can deceive is West. He is more likely to misplace a queen than an ace, so the ace is more deceptive. Often, when playing in notrump, the ace is the wrong card to win the first trick with, because it marks you with a lower honor. With the ace alone, you would typically hold up. Given dummy's heart holding, however, that principle doesn't apply here.

I lead the nine of diamonds, unblocking so I can later finesse West for the ten if I choose to. West plays the four. East takes dummy's queen with the ace and shifts to the three of spades.

As I've already decided, I must play East for honor-nine if spades are played early. While I would prefer to play him for one card rather than two, I can't afford that while I must still lose a trick to the club king. So I play the eight.

West wins with the nine and shifts to the four of hearts. West's decision not to continue spades suggests he has the ace, though that's hardly certain.

I play a low heart from dummy and win with the queen in my hand. East contributes the eight.

Time to work on the club suit. If West has the king of clubs and ducks when I lead toward the queen, perhaps I can endplay him. I'll take the club queen and cash my red-suit winners. Then I need to read the position. I can duck out the spade ace if I believe West has stiffed it, or I can play ace and a club, hoping to endplay him, if he hasn't. Or I can change my mind and play East for the spade ace. For the endplay to work, I will need West to hold the club jack as well as the king or for East to hold jack doubleton.

I lead the club seven from my hand. West scuttles my endplay plans by hopping with the king as East follows with the three. West continues with the six of clubs.

Since endplaying West is no longer an option, it appears I'm going to need the spade ace onside. But perhaps I can postpone the spade play to avoid going down more than one if the ace is offside. Suppose I cash all my winners, reaching this position:

	NORTH Robot ♠ 5 ♥ K 9 ♦ -- ♣ --
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ K 10 2 ♥ -- ♦ -- ♣ --

If East has the spade ace and jack doubleton of hearts left, I can lead a spade and endplay him. In fact, as long as West doesn't have a club winner, I can make this even if East's stiff spade is the queen. When I lead a spade, West can either let East hold the queen and be endplayed or he can overtake and give me two spade tricks in my hand.

My problem now is how to play the diamonds. Do I play from the top or finesse West for the ten? West's likeliest shapes are 4-2-3-4, 4-2-4-3, or 3-2-4-4. There are four ways for East to hold ace-ten third of diamonds and four ways for him to hold ace doubleton. And West is just as likely to hold four of a black suit as to hold three. That means all three cases are equally likely; no weighting is necessary. The finesse is a two-to-one favorite.

Another consideration is that I would prefer East to hold the long club. If he does, as we saw earlier, I don't necessarily need him to have the spade ace. So if West is 4-2-4-3, I have more chances to make than if he is 4-2-3-4. That makes the odds of finessing even better than two to one. Of course, West doesn't have to have one of those three likeliest patterns. But the odds are so heavily in favor of the finesse, factoring in fringe cases won't change the percentage play.

I play a low club from dummy, East plays the jack, and I win with the ace. I cash the diamond king--five--six--seven. Now a low diamond. I intend to finesse, but West plays the ten. That's both good news and bad news. I have four diamond tricks, but it means West probably has the long club, so the winkle isn't going to work. I'll need East to have the spade ace.

I take dummy's diamond jack and cash the eight. East discards the spade six; West, the spade seven. I cash dummy's club queen. East plays the nine; West, the four. We've reached the position above.

East presumably holds two hearts and a singleton spade while West holds two spades and a club. If East's spade is the ace, I can lead a spade and endplay him. If it's the jack, I must cash the heart to get out for down one. If it's the queen, it makes no difference what I do. On a spade lead, West will overtake his partner's queen to cash his club for the setting trick. Then he will have to concede a trick to my spade king. It also makes no difference what I do if East has the long club instead of a spade. If I lead a spade and he shows out, I can duck and score my spade king in the end. The only holdings that matter are a stiff ace and a stiff jack. So I must decide which is more likely.

If East held the spade ace, would he unblock it? I have a non-descript 13 HCP outside the spade suit, so I must have at least three HCP in spades for my three-notrump bid. From a robot's perspective, there is no reason I couldn't have queen-jack of spades instead of the king, in which case he must unblock. Of course, from a human's perspective, it's another matter. With queen-jack-eight of spades, I would not have played the eight on the spade shift. So against a human expert, I'm marked with the king.

Since the robots don't draw inferences from the play, I can be fairly confident my robot opponent would unblock the ace if he held it. This should be a normal contract and the play so far should be the same at most tables, so there is no reason to throw away a trick in a desperate attempt to make this. I cash the heart king and concede down one.

	NORTH Robot ♠ 5 4 ♥ K 9 6 2 ♦ Q J 8 6 ♣ Q 8 5
WEST Robot ♠ A Q 9 7 ♥ 10 4 ♦ 10 5 4 ♣ K 6 4 2		EAST Robot ♠ J 6 3 ♥ J 8 7 5 ♦ A 7 2 ♣ J 9 3
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ K 10 8 2 ♥ A Q 3 ♦ K 9 3 ♣ A 10 7

Minus 50 is worth 57%. Almost everyone was in game and some went down two.

I was arguably a bit careless in the play. I could have tested clubs before making my critical play in diamonds. If East shows out on the third club, I would change my mind about finessing against the diamond ten. I briefly considered that line and rejected it because I didn't want to set up extra tricks for the defense if the finesse lost. But that was probably wrong. The field isn't going to finesse the diamond. If the finesse loses, I have a terrible board anyway. Since losing an extra trick isn't going to matter, the discovery play in clubs must be worthwhile.