Free Weekly Instant Tournament - December 1 - Board 3

Board 3
Opponents vulnerable

♠ Q 3 2  ♥ 9 3 2  ♦ A 6  ♣ A K Q 8 4

I open with one notrump. LHO and partner pass, and RHO balances with two hearts, showing hearts and a minor.

It's tempting to bid three clubs. But as a general rule it is the responsibility of the player short in the opponent's suit to act. If partner has a doubleton heart, he should balance unless he is broke. If he has three hearts, we will probably do better on defense than on offense. So I pass. LHO and partner pass also, and RHO buys it for two hearts.

I lead the king of clubs and see the following dummy:

	NORTH Robot ♠ K 10 8 7 4 ♥ A 6 ♦ Q 8 2 ♣ 9 5 2
WEST Phillip ♠ Q 3 2 ♥ 9 3 2 ♦ A 6 ♣ A K Q 8 4

West	North	East	South
Phillip	Robot	Robot	Robot
1 NT	Pass	Pass	2 ♥
(All pass)

North had a tough problem. If his partner has five hearts, he wants to pass. But if his partner has four hearts and a five-card minor, he wants to bid two notrump to play the minor. It's a complete guess.

I don't understand why Astro, which solves such problems, isn't more popular. Playing Astro, partner bids two clubs to show hearts and a minor. With this hand, you bid two diamonds, denying three-card heart support. If partner has five hearts, he bids two hearts and you pass. If he has four hearts and a longer minor, he passes two diamonds or bids three clubs. Why play guessing games with Cappelletti when there is a convention that let's you find out what you need to know?

Declarer plays the five of clubs from dummy for whatever reason. Partner plays the six; declarer, the seven.

My proper continuation is the club queen, but I don't trust my robot partner to work out I have the ace. I don't want him ruffing this if clubs was declarer's second suit. So I lead the ace. Declarer continues his MUD convention by playing dummy's nine. Partner plays the jack; declarer, the three.

I still don't know much about declarer's hand other than that he has at least nine cards in the red suits. But I see no reason not to persist in clubs. I play the club queen. Partner follows with the ten, and declarer ruffs with the heart five.

If declarer is five-five in the red suits, it probably doesn't matter much what we do. Let's assume he's five-four one way or the other. If he is 4-5, he will probably play on spades, hoping to scramble some ruffs in his hand.

Declarer plays the four of diamonds. Since he seems to be playing for control rather than scrambling, it's likely he has five hearts, so I'll assume he's 2-5-4-2.

I duck, declarer wins with dummy's queen, and partner plays the seven. Declarer continues with the deuce of diamonds from dummy--three--king--ace.

Declarer would have ducked this trick without the diamond jack, and he wouldn't have started diamonds early with king-jack-ten fourth. So his long diamond is a loser.

If partner has the spade ace, I can lead a spade to him and get a diamond ruff. That brings us up to five tricks. Declarer will probably have the king-queen of hearts if partner has the spade ace. So we will need to score our long diamond trick to beat it. Can we?

If declarer has the spade jack, he has a guess when I lead a spade. But he should guess correctly, since I can hardly have the spade ace. Even though that gives me only 17 HCP, the prime values and good five-card suit make that hand too good for a one-notrump opening. So declarer should play low on my spade shift and unblock the jack under partner's ace. Then he can pitch his diamond loser on dummy's spade ten.

What if partner has the jack of spades? Declarer ducks the spade shift. Partner wins with his jack and gives me a ruff. I play a spade to partner's ace for the setting trick. Partner can now play his last diamond and I can ruff with the nine, uppercutting the dummy and possibly promoting a trick for down two.

What is the danger in shifting to a spade? If declarer has ace-nine, a spade shift will give him a spade trick to pitch his diamond loser on. That's a very specific layout, however. A priori, partner is three times as likely to have ace-jack third of spades as declarer is to have ace-nine doubleton, so switching to spades is the percentage play.

I lead the spade deuce. Declarer rises with the king. Partner wins with the ace, and declarer follows with the five.  Declarer must be missing the jack. He decided rising with the king was his only chance. Partner shifts to the diamond ten, declarer covers with the jack and I ruff.

That's five tricks, and the spade queen makes down one. How confident am I that partner has the spade jack? If he does, I can underlead my queen to put him on play for the uppercut, possibly yielding down two.

Wait. What am I thinking? I don't need partner to lead diamonds. Declarer has to lead them himself or concede a diamond trick at the end. So there is no reason to underlead. Queen and a spade, tapping declarer, works just as well.

I cash the spade queen. Partner follows with the six; declarer, with the jack. Wow! So declarer did misguess! I'm insulted. But now dummy has a spade trick he can pitch his diamond on. Can we stop  that? Maybe. If partner has the jack-ten of hearts, this is the position:

	NORTH Robot ♠ 10 8 7 ♥ A 6 ♦ -- ♣ --
WEST Phillip ♠ 3 ♥ 9 3 ♦ -- ♣ 8 4		EAST Robot ♠ 9 ♥ J 10 x ♦ 9 ♣ --
	SOUTH Robot ♠ -- ♥ K Q x x ♦ 5 ♣ --

If I play a heart or a spade, declarer has the rest. So I might as well play a club. What happens then? If declarer pitches from dummy and ruffs in his hand, partner can pitch his spade. preventing the diamond discard. So declarer must ruff the club in dummy. Partner overruffs with the ten, and declarer overruffs with the queen. He can now lead a heart to the ace and take his discard. But then he can't get off dummy. My nine of hearts promotes for the second undertrick.

I lead a club. Declarer ruffs in dummy. Partner overruffs with the ten, and declarer overruffs with the queen. It looks as if this is going to work.

It does. Partner has the jack of hearts, so declarer finishes down two,

	NORTH Robot ♠ K 10 8 7 4 ♥ A 6 ♦ Q 8 2 ♣ 9 5 2
WEST Phillip ♠ Q 3 2 ♥ 9 3 2 ♦ A 6 ♣ A K Q 8 4		EAST Robot ♠ A 9 6 ♥ J 10 8 ♦ 10 9 7 3 ♣ J 10 6
	SOUTH Robot ♠ J 5 ♥ K Q 7 5 4 ♦ K J 5 4 ♣ 7 3

Plus 200 is worth 100%. 

I was feeling pretty good about my defense until, stepping through the play with the double-dummy solver, I got to the point where I shifted to a low spade:

	NORTH Robot ♠ K 10 8 7 4 ♥ A 6 ♦ 8 ♣ --
WEST Phillip ♠ Q 3 2 ♥ 9 3 2 ♦ -- ♣ 8 4		EAST Robot ♠ A 9 6 ♥ J 10 8 ♦ 10 9 ♣ --
	SOUTH Robot ♠ J 5 ♥ K Q 7 4 ♦ J 5 ♣ --

The solver said that leading the spade queen beats the contract by force.

Really? How does that work? I see. If I lead the queen, declarer covers and partner wins with the ace. Declarer can't afford to play the jack. If he does, he has only one spade winner and can't get a diamond pitch. So he must play low, blocking the suit. Partner gives me a ruff for our fifth trick. Now a ruff-sluff in clubs works the same magic it did in my line, yielding the setting trick.

Annoying. Even though I wound up beating it two on my defense, I was just lucky. Declarer should have guessed the spades and made it. The spade queen is a pretty play. It would be nice to be able to brag that I had found it.

Admittedly, the spade queen isn't 100%. If partner doesn't have jack-ten of trumps, leading low and hoping declarer misguesses is your only shot. But I think the chance that a decent declarer will misguess is pretty slim, so shifting to the spade queen looks right.

A word about using double-dummy solvers. Initially, I was wary of them. I was afraid if I used them, my brain would atrophy. I still believe that's a danger if you use them as a substitute for thinking. But when used as I did here--to see if you missed something on a deal you have already played--they can be a useful tool.

Without a double-dummy solver, I never would have realized that shifting to the spade queen beats the contract by force. Having discovered that, perhaps the next time I encounter a similar position I'll do the right thing.