Free Weekly Instant Tournament - December 1 - Board 7

Board 7
Both sides vulnerable

♠ J 10 5  ♥ A 7 5  ♦ A K 10 6  ♣ K J 3

I open with one notrump in first seat and everyone passes. LHO leads the four of diamonds.

	NORTH Robot ♠ 8 7 4 3 ♥ K J 3 2 ♦ J ♣ Q 10 9 7
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ J 10 5 ♥ A 7 5 ♦ A K 10 6 ♣ K J 3

West	North	East	South
Robot	Robot	Robot	Phillip
			1 NT
(All pass)

I have three diamond tricks, three clubs once I knock out the ace, and two hearts. Eight tricks. When the opponents take the club ace, they will have spade winners to cash. If they can cash four of them, they can hold me to eight tricks. If they can't, I can try a heart finesse for a ninth. If spades are three-three, it's possible I can set up my fourth spade for a ninth trick. But it seems unlikely I will have the tempo to do that. The opponents can probably establish a fifth trick in diamonds before the long spade is established.

I play the diamond jack from dummy and RHO covers with the queen. If I held the ace without the king, I would sometimes duck. I would almost never duck holding the king without the ace. So the ace is a more revealing card. Accordingly, I win with the king.

The three and deuce of diamonds are still out. If the lead is low, West could have anywhere from three to six diamonds.

I want the opponents to take the club ace early to give me some flexibility. Leading the club king is the likeliest way to achieve that. If LHO has ace third, he may be afraid to duck for fear his partner has jack third and I will somehow figure that out.

I lead the club king--deuce--seven--five. That didn't work. Now what? If I lead the jack to the queen, they will probably duck again. But if I lead low to the nine, East might win with an original holding of ace third for fear his partner started with jack fourth.

I play the club three--eight--nine--four of hearts.

So West started with five clubs. East is probably pitching lowest from a five-card suit, so West has a stiff heart. His most likely patterns are 4-1-3-5, 3-1-4-5, and 2-1-5-5.

I continue with a low club to my jack. East pitches the diamond deuce. West takes the ace and shifts to the nine of spades. East wins with the king, and I drop the ten, the card I'm known to hold. Here is the current position with East on lead:

	NORTH Robot ♠ 8 7 4 ♥ K J 3 2 ♦ -- ♣ Q
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ J 5 ♥ A 7 5 ♦ A 10 6 ♣ --

If East's spade king is honest, then West has the queen. I doubt West would lead low from queen-nine doubleton or that he would squander the nine from queen-nine fourth. So if he has the queen, he must have queen-nine third. It's possible, however, that East has false carded. I haven't seen the robots play high from equals at trick one. But I have seen them do so in the middle of the hand.

West shifts to the seven of diamonds. I take the ace, and West follows with the five. The three is still out, so I'm still not sure of the diamond count.

If East did falsecard from ace-king-queen of spades, perhaps I can endplay him. I can cash the diamond ten, lead a heart to dummy's king, and cash the club queen, squeezing East out of his long spade if he started with four. This will be the position:

	NORTH Robot ♠ 8 ♥ J 3 2 ♦ -- ♣ --
		EAST Robot ♠ A Q ♥ Q x ♦ -- ♣ --
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ J 5 ♥ A 7 ♦ -- ♣ --

Now I can toss East in with a spade.

Back to the previous diagram. East has led a diamond to my ace. I pitch a spade from dummy, then cash the diamond ten, pitching another spade. LHO follows with the eight, East with the three. Now that East has shown up with four diamonds, I know the count. West was 3-1-4-5, leaving East with 3-5-4-1. East's remaining cards are

♠ A ?  ♥ Q 10 x x  ♦ --  ♣ --

If that spade '?' is the queen, I can lead a heart to the king and exit with a spade. Cashing the club queen in this layout would be a mistake. If West has the spade queen, the defense could then take the rest, and I would lose the heart ace.

But would East really have pitched this way with ace-king-queen of spades? He could surely see the endplay coming. Why pitch his diamond exit on the third round of clubs? He would have pitched another heart instead.

If the endplay isn't working, is there anything I can do? I don't see a legitimate line. But maybe they'll get tangled up in the end position. It's hard to see how. But the robots don't signal, and they don't draw inferences. It's easy to misdefend under those conditions. I'm fairly sure West has the spade queen. So hoping for a mistake looks like my best shot.

I lead the five of hearts--nine--king--six. Now the club queen--heart ten--diamond six--club six. Now a heart back to the ace, as East pitches his last club. If I'm right about the spade queen, this is the position.

	NORTH Robot ♠ 8 ♥ J 3 ♦ -- ♣ --
WEST Robot ♠ Q x ♥ -- ♦ 9 ♣ --		EAST Robot ♠ A x ♥ Q ♦ -- ♣ --
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ J 5 ♥ 7 ♦ -- ♣ --

If I exit with a spade, the defense can easily take the rest. A heart exit, forcing West to discard, is my only chance.

I lead the seven of hearts, and West pitches the spade six. Aha! That's promising. Now East must win the heart and underlead his spade ace.

East wins with the heart queen and cashes the spade ace, dropping his partner's queen. My spade jack scores the last trick. Making three.

	NORTH Robot ♠ 8 7 4 3 ♥ K J 3 2 ♦ J ♣ Q 10 9 7
WEST Robot ♠ Q 9 6 ♥ 9 ♦ 9 8 5 4 ♣ A 8 6 4 2		EAST Robot ♠ A K 2 ♥ Q 10 8 6 4 ♦ Q 7 3 2 ♣ 5
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ J 10 5 ♥ A 7 5 ♦ A K 10 6 ♣ K J 3

Plus 150 is worth 86%. West make a foolish play in stiffing his spade queen. This is the robots' greatest weakness on defense: assuming both declarer and partner are double-dummy. Why make a play that forces partner to do the right thing when you can make a play that leaves him no losing options?

I sympathize with East's play at the end. How could his partner hold the diamond nine and not discard it? My last two cards must be a spade and a good diamond. And that spade might be the queen. There are clues that isn't the case, but I think most of the blame falls to West.

I find one of the most difficult plays in bridge is spurning a legitimate but unlikely line in hope of a defensive error. It's one thing when you can see ahead of time the error an opponent might make. It's quite another when, as here, you are just hoping they will find some way to mess up. Ultimately, it's a matter of percentages. What's more likely? That you've misread the position or that the opponents will make a mistake? Sometimes playing for the mistake is the percentage line.

My former partner Howard Chandross put it more bluntly: "A finesse is only fifty percent," he would say, "but an idiot is always an idiot."