Free Weekly Instant Tournament - May 10 - Board 2

Board 2
Our side vulnerable

♠ K J 6 2  ♥ A 9 4 3 2  ♦ A Q 6  ♣ A

RHO passes, and I open with one heart. LHO bids two clubs, partner raises to two hearts, and RHO passes.

Five losers. Twenty total points. However you look at it, I have a four-heart bid. I bid four hearts, everyone passes, and West leads the club queen.

	NORTH Robot ♠ 8 7 5 4 ♥ Q J 6 ♦ 8 7 ♣ K 10 5 3
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ K J 6 2 ♥ A 9 4 3 2 ♦ A Q 6 ♣ A

West	North	East	South
Robot	Robot	Robot	Phillip
		Pass	1 ♥
2 ♣	2 ♥	Pass	4 ♥
(All pass)

On the auction, East can hold only one high honor. I need to hope it's the diamond king. Then perhaps I can hold my losses to a heart and two spades. The two-club overcall gives me hope West's presumed spade ace is doubleton. If so, I can duck two spades to establish the suit.

This is a surprisingly poor game. Was I really supposed to make a short-suit game try in clubs instead of just bidding four hearts?

I play the club three from dummy. East plays the seven and I take the ace. I lead a low heart toward dummy. West hops with the king, and East follows with the seven.

West cashes the spade ace. I'm happy to see that card. East plays the three, and I follow with the deuce. That was a mistake; I should have played the six. The robots don't signal per se, but they presumably have some algorithm for choosing which spot to play, and West is privy to it. There was no reason for me to let West know that his partner played his lowest card.

West continues with the spade queen. I'm even happier to see that card. East plays the nine, and I win with the king.

What was that about? I suspect West had ace-queen doubleton and was hoping his partner could overtake the queen and give him a ruff. 

I play a heart to dummy. West plays the five; East, the eight. I cash the heart jack, and East pitches the five of diamonds. We've reached this position with the lead in dummy:

	NORTH Robot ♠ 8 7 ♥ -- ♦ 8 7 ♣ K 10 5
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ J 6 ♥ A 9 ♦ A Q 6 ♣ --

I can pitch one diamond on dummy's club king. If I guess who holds the diamond king, I can take the rest. I can cash all my winners ending in dummy, reaching this position:

	NORTH Robot ♠ -- ♥ -- ♦ 8 ♣ 10
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ -- ♥ -- ♦ A Q ♣ --

To hold the club jack, West must come down to a stiff diamond. So I must guess whether to finesse against East or to drop West's king. If I finesse and I'm wrong, however, I will lose the last two tricks and go down. So if I intend to take the finesse, I should do so while I still have a trump left. There is no sense in executing the squeeze unless I intend to play for the drop.

I might has well find out as much as I can before I decide. I cash the club king and pitch my low diamond. East follows with the four. When I ruff a club to my hand, East pitches the diamond deuce. That makes him 3-2-6-2 and West 2-3-2-6.

I cash the jack of spades. West pitches the club nine, and East follows. We have reached the moment of truth:

	NORTH Robot ♠ 8 ♥ -- ♦ 8 7 ♣ 10
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ 6 ♥ A ♦ A Q ♣ --

If West has the diamond king, I need to cash my last trump, then lead a spade to dummy to squeeze him. But if I'm going to finesse East for it, I can't afford to cash the last trump. I must lead a spade to dummy now to take the finesse.

The auction suggests the diamond king is on my left. At favorable vulnerability. East, with six diamonds, might have opened two diamonds if he held the diamond king. The play, however, suggests the diamond king is on my right.

A cardinal principle of placing cards is this: If someone makes a mistake, his partner is the one who holds the missing critical card. The assumption is that if the person who made the mistake held the critical card himself, he would know enough to avoid the mistake. Mistakes suggest incomplete information.

This principle makes sense here. West worked out his partner was likely to hold a king. He was hoping it was the spade king. If I held this hand, for example,

♠ J x x  ♥ A x x x x x  ♦ A K x  ♣ A,

West must get a spade ruff to beat me. But if West held the diamond king, he would know that his partner was broke, and he wouldn't try for the ruff.

I'm going to go with the inference from the play. Robots have funny ideas about weak-two bids. But it's hard to see West's making that spade shift if he's looking at the diamond king. I play a spade to dummy and a diamond to my queen. It holds. Making five. Here I was wondering if I should have avoided game, and I wound up making an overtrick.

	NORTH Robot ♠ 8 7 5 4 ♥ Q J 6 ♦ 8 7 ♣ K 10 5 3
WEST Robot ♠ A Q ♥ K 10 5 ♦ 4 3 ♣ Q J 9 8 6 2		EAST Robot ♠ 10 9 3 ♥ 8 7 ♦ K J 10 9 5 2 ♣ 7 4
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ K J 6 2 ♥ A 9 4 3 2 ♦ A Q 6 ♣ A

See what I mean about robots and weak two bids? I can't imagine passing with the East hand at favorable. Two diamonds looks pretty routine. Some would open three diamonds.

Plus 650 is worth 91%. It's true West didn't find the best defense. But we are all playing against the same West, so everyone should get the spade shift. And the field doesn't do squeezes, so no one should fall into the trap. Why, then, was this such a good result?

Because several declarers were punished for misplaying the heart suit. Instead of playing a low heart at trick two, they played ace and a heart. Cashing the ace picks up a stiff king on your right, but it manufactures a loser if king-ten fourth is on your left, which is three times as likely. 

Since hearts are three-two, one might think these declarers would have survived their error. But the bridge gods don't like it when you misplay a hand, and sometimes they find a peculiar way to make you pay.

In this case, you pay because you let West discover you have only five hearts. The South hand I posed above is now impossible. One can still construct some layouts where a spade shift is necessary, but there are fewer of them. And apparently fewer enough to tip the scales in favor of a heart continuation.