Sunday, June 23, 2024

Free Weekly Instant Tournament - May 10 - Board 6

Board 6
Opponents vulnerable

♠ A Q 8   A 4   A K 8 5 3  ♣ K 6 2  

I open with two notrump (20-21 HCP) in second seat. Partner raises to three. Everyone passes, and LHO leads the four of diamonds.


NORTH
Robot
♠ K 10
Q 9 7
Q J 2
♣ 10 9 8 5 3






SOUTH
Phillip
♠ A Q 8
A 4
A K 8 5 3
♣ K 6 2


West North East South
Robot Robot Robot Phillip
Pass 2 NT
Pass 3 NT (All pass)

I have nine top tricks. The best place to try for more is in the club suit. If clubs break and RHO has the queen or jack, I can float the ten of clubs, then reach dummy and finesse again to set up the suit. I lose only two club tricks and make five.

The problem with this line is the West may shift to a heart when he wins the club. Now what? I doubt my robot opponent will shift from the king (though a crafty human might). So if he does shift, my best shot is to play low, hoping East has KJx or K10x or chooses to play the jack from KJ8. If I don't get lucky in the heart suit, I still have the chance that East has the club ace and West can't get in to continue hearts. I make four if any of these chances pans out; I might go down if they don't.

Alternatively, I could just play a club to the king. If the ace is onside, I make four, and I don't risk going down. Which play is better? 

If the club ace is on my right, floating the ten makes four if West shifts to a heart and five if he doesn't (unless West has a stiff queen or jack). So it always works at least as well as a club to the king and sometimes works better.

If the club king is on my left, a club to the king might work better. But it requires a parlay: West would need to find a heart shift, and the lie of the heart suit would have to be unfavorable. It's weird that a club to the king is the better play only when it loses, isn't it?

All in all, I would have to be quite unlucky to regret floating the club ten, so that's that line I'll choose. 

The four is the lowest outstanding diamond, so West can't have all five of them. It's safe to play the queen from dummy. I do so, as East follows with the seven. Now ten of clubs--four--deuce--ace. Well! That was a success. I'm making at least four now.

West continues with the ten of diamonds. I win with dummy's jack, and East discards the spade six. The robots discard count cards, so it appears East has an even number of spades. 

If clubs split, I'm making five. I lead the club nine, and East covers with the jack. I take the king, and West discards the eight of heart, presumably from an even number.

This is the current position:


NORTH
Robot
♠ K 10
Q 9 7
 2
♣ 8 5 3






SOUTH
Phillip
♠ A Q 8
A 4
A K 8
♣ 6

East has queen-seven of clubs over dummy's eight, so the club suit is dead. My only chance for a second overtrick now is to score the heart queen.

What is the layout? I know East has an even number of spades and West has an even number of hearts. East could be 4-4-1-4, making West 4-4-4-1. But would West discard from a four-card heart suit when he had a safe diamond pitch? He might if he had the king. If he doesn't have the king, then he probably has six hearts. That would make East 6-2-1-4 and West 2-6-4-1. In normal circumstances, I would consider the latter construction unlikely, since West didn't lead a heart. But robots don't believe in fourth from longest and strongest, so I can't rule it out.

So what's next? I have two ways to score the heart queen: 

(1) If West has the heart king, I can simply lead a low heart toward the queen.

(2) If East has the heart king, I can cash my winners, coming down to this position:


NORTH
Robot
♠ --
Q 9
--
♣ 8






SOUTH
Phillip
♠ --
A 4
--
♣ 6

East must either stiff the heart king or come down to two hearts and the queen of clubs. In the latter case, I toss him in.

In essence, I have a two-way finesse against the king of hearts. Unfortunately, I must make up my mind now. If I run diamonds to get more information, I can no longer lead toward the heart queen without cashing the ace first. If I do, West can hop and lead a spade, tangling my communication.

So who is more likely to have the heart king? I already decided that if West is 4-4-4-1, he probably has it, else he would have pitched a diamond. And if he's 2-6-4-1, he is six-to-two to have it a priori. So a heart toward the queen is clearly the percentage play. Too bad. Endplays are more fun than finesses. But that's the way it is.

I lead the four of hearts--deuce--queen--king. Making four.


NORTH
Robot
♠ K 10
Q 9 7
Q J 2
♣ 10 9 8 5 3


WEST
Robot
♠ J 7
J 8 6 5 3 2
10 9 6 4
♣ A


EAST
Robot
♠ 9 6 5 4 3 2
K 10
7
♣ Q J 7 4


SOUTH
Phillip
♠ A Q 8
A 4
A K 8 5 3
♣ K 6 2

Plus 430 is worth 79%. I would have scored 100% had I gone for the endplay, but it's a clear error to do so. The heart king is three to one to be on my left on the actual layout, and would be close to 100% if hearts were four-four.

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