Free Weekly Instant Tournament - August 30 - Board 7

Board 7
Both sides vulnerable

♠ J 8  ♥ K J 9 6 3  ♦ A 10 9 3  ♣ K 8

I open with one heart in first seat, and partner bids one spade. I can rebid either two diamonds or one notrump. If I bid two diamonds and partner corrects to two hearts with a small doubleton, I'll wish I had bid one notrump. If I bid one trump and partner passes with a stiff heart and a diamond fit, I'll wish I had bid two diamonds. It's not at all clear what to rebid for purposes of playing the right partscore. But if we reach game in notrump, it's probably better to play from my side. So I bid one notrump.

Partner raises to two notrump. I have no reason to accept; we may be too high already. I pass, and West leads the four of diamonds. It's usually a good sign when you decline to bid a suit and the opponents lead it.

	NORTH Robot ♠ Q 10 7 5 ♥ 8 ♦ K Q 6 5 ♣ A 10 7 5
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ J 8 ♥ K J 9 6 3 ♦ A 10 9 3 ♣ K 8

West	North	East	South
Robot	Robot	Robot	Phillip
			1 ♥
Pass	1 ♠	Pass	1 NT
Pass	2 NT	(All pass)

Partner has the hand I was worried about. If I had bid two diamonds, I suspect partner would have raised to three and we would play it there. Fortunately partner has enough in high cards that notrump may actually be a better strain than diamonds. If his hand were weaker, diamonds would be better.

I play low from dummy, and East discards the three of spades. I guess we did well to avoid three diamonds.

I have four diamond tricks and two club tricks. I need two more. I can get two spade tricks if I find the nine of spades. The spade discard is probably from a five-card suit. So it's tempting to let dummy's five of diamonds hold and lead a spade to the eight. If the finesse works, I'm home. 

The downside to this approach is, if the finesse loses, I've not only conceded a trick to the opponents they were never going to score themselves, but I've also lost a tempo. I'll need to give up the lead twice more in spades, and, with three entries, the opponents have plenty of chances to find three additional tricks.

The alternative is to drive the ace and king of spades and hope to find an eighth trick somewhere. There are several possibilities. The nine of spades may drop. I may guess the hearts. And the opponents may present me with a heart or a club trick trying to develop tricks for themselves.

In general, it's not a good idea to stake the contract on a committal play at trick two when you have other chances. Still, the odds are five to two that this particular committal play will work. Perhaps better than that, since East, with ace-king of spades, may hop when I play a spade from dummy. In addition, if we assume East discarded his lowest spade from five, then the only way the finesse can lose is if West has specifically nine-deuce.

I decide the odds merit a committal play at trick two. I win the first trick in dummy and play a low spade. East plays the spade six, and my eight drives West's ace. I have eight tricks once I drive the spade king. Now I'm playing for overtricks.

West shifts to the club queen. That would be a strange play from queen-jack, looking at ace-ten in dummy. It could be from queen doubleton, or it could be from queen-nine third. (If you choose to lead the suit from that holding, the queen is the correct card. Leading low or the nine costs a trick if I have king-eight doubleton or third.)

I play a low club from dummy and win in my hand with the king as East plays the six. Now the jack of spades--four--seven--king. The four? That's strange. That means East gave false count at trick one. He either started an echo with K9632 or played low from K963. In the middle of the hand, the robots tend to discard honest count cards. But I have noticed that they don't always do so when showing out at trick one. Since I doubt East would have discarded a spade from K963, I'm going to continue to assume he started with five. Although I have to take back my claim that the finesse of the eight would lose only to nine-deuce.

We've reached this position, with East on play:

	NORTH Robot ♠ Q 10 ♥ 8 ♦ K Q 6 ♣ A 10 7
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ -- ♥ K J 9 6 3 ♦ A 10 9 ♣ 8

East shifts to the seven of hearts. If I guess the hearts, I'll make an overtrick. Do I have any clues? West's shift to the club queen suggests he believes he has an entry. There is no point to that play unless he can get in to lead another club. That's an indication he has the ace of hearts. It's not much of an indication, since the heart queen could be an entry as well. But it's all I have to go on. I play the jack, and West takes the ace. I have nine tricks now.

Surprisingly, West doesn't continue clubs. He returns the deuce of hearts. I pitch the seven of clubs from dummy, East plays the heart queen, and I win with the king. 

Why is West continuing hearts when a club shift looks routine? Perhaps he is trying to cash his partner's king of hearts? But he knows my shape. Even if his partner does have the heart king, it isn't going anywhere unless I have king-jack tight of clubs. It's fine to cater to an unlikely layout if you can afford to. But West can't afford to unless he holds the heart ten. If I hold king-ten, a heart continuation will pick up East's queen and given me the rest of the tricks. So, unless West is being careless, the heart shift marks him with the ten.

We have now reached this position:

	NORTH Robot ♠ Q 10 ♥ -- ♦ K Q 6 ♣ A 10
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ -- ♥ 9 6 3 ♦ A 10 9 ♣ 8

I have all but one of the remaining tricks. Can I execute a squeeze to take the rest? Not if East holds the club jack and West holds the heart ten, as I assume. What if I'm wrong about the heart ten? If East holds both of them, I can cash all my tricks ending in my hand, and he is squeezed. But West could see the squeeze coming. If that were the layout, he would have shifted to a club to break it up. 

My only chance, then, is that I'm wrong about the club jack. Could West have shifted from queen jack of clubs after all, perhaps hoping his partner had the king? I can't afford to risk the finesse, but I don't have to. I can run my winners, coming down to:

	NORTH Robot ♠ -- ♥ -- ♦ -- ♣ A 10
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ -- ♥ 9 ♦ -- ♣ 8

with the lead in my hand.

West must keep his putative heart ten. So if he has the club jack, he's caught in a show-up squeeze. 

I play a diamond to dummy. East discards the five of hearts. On dummy's spades, East follows, and West discards the seven of diamonds and the nine of clubs. 

On the diamond queen, East pitches the heart four. The ten is the only heart remaining. I play a diamond to the ace. East pitches the club four, and West follows with his last diamond.

We've reached the two-card ending above. West presumably holds the heart ten and one club, and East holds two clubs. I lead the eight of clubs, and West follows with the deuce. 

If my construction is correct--and I am quite confident it is--then it makes no difference what I do. If I finesse, East will win and return a club to dummy's ace. But you should never assume your play makes no difference. So I must assume I'm wrong about the heart ten and East holds it after all. If that's the case, is East's remaining club the jack or a small one?

I already decided West would have broken up the squeeze if one existed. So if East does unexpectedly hold the heart ten, his club must be a small one. I finesse. East takes his jack and returns a club. Making three.

	NORTH Robot ♠ Q 10 7 5 ♥ 8 ♦ K Q 6 5 ♣ A 10 7 5
WEST Robot ♠ A 4 ♥ A 10 2 ♦ J 8 7 4 2 ♣ Q 9 2		EAST Robot ♠ K 9 6 3 2 ♥ Q 7 5 4 ♦ -- ♣ J 6 4 3
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ J 8 ♥ K J 9 6 3 ♦ A 10 9 3 ♣ K 8

Plus 150 is worth 82%. Note West did indeed make the nice play of shifting to the club queen from queen-nine third.

No one is in three diamonds. If you rebid two diamonds, partner bids two notrump instead of raising. So, except for the three optimists who raised two notrump to three and the one pessimist who passed the board out, everyone is in two notrump, taking anywhere from six to nine tricks.