Free Weekly Instant Tournament - May 30 - Board 6

Board 6
Opponents vulnerable

♠ A K 5 4  ♥ K J 9 6  ♦ 8  ♣ K J 5 4

RHO passes. I bid one club, partner bids one diamond, and RHO chimes in with one notrump, showing the unbid suits. Double also shows the unbid suits. I'm not sure under what conditions the robots choose one notrump over double.

Double by me would be a support double of diamonds. I like support doubles for majors, but support doubles for diamonds make no sense to me. In any event, playing the robots' methods, pass is my only option. I pass, LHO bids two spades, and partner bids three spades, showing a good hand with club support. I have both majors under control, so I bid three notrump. Everyone passes, and LHO leads the three of spades.

	NORTH Robot ♠ Q ♥ 2 ♦ A Q 10 7 4 3 2 ♣ A 9 3 2
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ A K 5 4 ♥ K J 9 6 ♦ 8 ♣ K J 5 4

West	North	East	South
Robot	Robot	Robot	Phillip
		Pass	1 ♣
Pass	1 ♦	1 NT	Pass
2 ♠	3 ♠	Pass	3 NT
(All pass)

Dummy's queen holds, East playing the deuce. 

When partner shows the majors, one generally bids hearts with equal length. This is especially true when partner is a passed hand. With 6-5 in the majors, one can open quite light. But 5-6 is problematic. If you open one heart, you may lose the spade suit. If you open one spade and bid hearts, partner will expect your spades to be equal or longer (and rightly so). So one is less apt to open light with 5-6. That means if you pass and show majors, you are more likely to have six hearts than six spades.

So West should be 3-2 in the majors, making his partner 5-6. Since I need diamonds to break, I need to hope East is 5-6-2-0.  If so, I can play a club to my hand and a diamond up. Then I need to guess whether to play West for king third or jack third. If I guess correctly, I set up six tricks in diamonds. If I guess incorrectly, I'm probably going down.

A priori, it's 50-50 which honor West holds. But the auction changes those odds. Sometimes when West holds jack third, East would have opened the bidding in first seat. For example, East probably would have opened with

♠ J 10 x x x  ♥ A Q x x x x  ♦ K x  ♣ --

but not with

♠ J 10 x x x  ♥ A Q x x x x  ♦ J x  ♣ -- .

That means some of the hands where West holds jack third are eliminated, making it better than 50% that West holds the diamond king.

I lead a club to my king, and East pitches the deuce of hearts. I was hoping he would show out, but the deuce is unexpected. BBO robots consistently pitch count cards, so I know he's 5-5-3-0. West, for some reason, chose to bid spades rather than hearts with equal length. That means it makes no difference whether I finesse the queen or ten of diamonds. If West has either honor doubleton, I take six diamond tricks whichever card I play.

Since it makes no difference what I do if my construction is correct, I might as well assume it's wrong. I'll proceed with my plan to finesse the diamond queen just in case East gave false count in hearts, though I seriously doubt he did.

I play a diamond, West plays the nine, I play the queen from dummy, and East wins with the king. He now cashes the heart ace--six--four--deuce, then shifts to the spade jack. We've reached this position with me to play to the spade jack:

	NORTH Robot ♠ -- ♥ -- ♦ A 10 7 4 3 2 ♣ A 9 3
		♠ J
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ A K 5 ♥ K J 9 ♦ -- ♣ J 5 4

If East began with king third of diamonds, then West's jack is dropping and I have the rest. I can pitch clubs on the ace and king of spades; lead a club to the ace; cash the diamond ace, dropping the jack; and run diamonds. 

What happens if the jack doesn't drop? The jack of diamonds gives East nine HCP. He presumably would have opened the bidding with the heart queen as well, so West has it. This will be the position after I cash the diamond ace:

	NORTH Robot ♠ -- ♥ -- ♦ 10 7 4 3 2 ♣ --
WEST Robot ♠ -- ♥ Q x ♦ -- ♣ Q 10 x		EAST Robot ♠ x x ♥ x x  ♦ J ♣ --
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ -- ♥ K J 9 ♦ -- ♣ J 5

I've taken six tricks. When I lead a diamond, East will win and cash his spades, and I must come down to two cards. If I come down to king-jack of hearts, West keeps two hearts. If I come down to the king of hearts and the club jack, West keeps his queen of clubs. So the king of hearts is all I get, for down two.

Perhaps I do better to cash one spade and one heart before leading a club to dummy, to avoid setting up East's spade suit. Now if the jack of diamonds doesn't drop, this will be the position:

	NORTH Robot ♠ -- ♥ -- ♦ 10 7 4 3 2 ♣ --
WEST Robot ♠ x ♥ Q ♦ -- ♣ Q 10 x		EAST Robot ♠ x x ♥ x x ♦ J ♣ --
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ K ♥ J 9 ♦ -- ♣ J 5

I lead a diamond to East's jack, pitching a heart as West pitches a club. East now leads a heart. West wins and tosses me in with a spade to lead clubs into his queen-ten. Again, down two.

Against best defense, it makes no difference which two cards I cash, but cashing a spade and a heart at least requires both opponents to stay awake. If West carelessly pitches a spade or if East carelessly exits with a spade in the end position, I can endplay West and score my club jack.

I win the spade ace and cash the king of hearts, pitching clubs from dummy. Now I play a club to the ace and cash the diamond ace. The jack drops, and I claim. Making five.

	NORTH Robot ♠ Q ♥ 2 ♦ A Q 10 7 4 3 2 ♣ A 9 3 2
WEST Robot ♠ 7 6 3 ♥ Q 7 4 ♦ J 9 ♣ Q 10 8 7 6		EAST Robot ♠ J 10 9 8 2 ♥ A 10 8 5 3 ♦ K 6 5 ♣ --
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ A K 5 4 ♥ K J 9 6 ♦ 8 ♣ K J 5 4

Plus 460 is worth 96%. Seems generous. 

At the point East shifted to the spade jack, he could have returned a diamond to endplay dummy, holding me to four. But for all he knows, I have the club queen and there's no endplay. And there is no reason his partner couldn't have the spade ace, in which case the defense can take at least two spade tricks on a spade return. So the spade return seems normal.

The opening lead made things harder for East than it needed to be. Having supported spades, West should lead the seven if he choses to lead the suit at all. Or he could lead a heart, since he has some help in that suit. But, given everyone is playing against the same opponents, everyone should get the same opening lead. So I'm not sure why everyone isn't scoring 460.

Weirdly, about half the field actually went down. I no longer have access to the play at other tables, so I can't see how they managed that.

[Addendum: I posed this as a play problem on social media and a surprising number of people suggested playing ace and a small diamond. I have no idea what the point of that play is, and no one explained why he thought it was better than taking a finesse. But at least it explains how some are going down.]