Free Weekly Instant Tournament - July 25 - Board 3

Board 3
Opponents vulnerable

♠ A K J 10 9  ♥ A  ♦ A 6 5 4  ♣ 4 3 2

I bid one spade. LHO overcalls with two clubs, partner passes, and RHO bids two hearts. I double for take-out, partner bids two spades, and East passes. I have a good hand. Should I make a game try?

Here is the auction so far:

West	North	East	South
Robot	Robot	Robot	Phillip
			1 ♠
2 ♣	Pass	2 ♥	Double
Pass	2 ♠	Pass	?

What would I have done had partner raised to two spades voluntarily? I have six losers, But I have three aces and no queens, so I should treat the hand as five losers. And five losers is worth driving to game opposite a single raise. On the other hand, my three small clubs is troublesome. RHO didn't raise clubs, so partner may have three clubs as well. Even if partner has a doubleton, East could be overruffing dummy. If we lose the first three tricks, taking ten will be an uphill battle. It's probably right to be cautious and merely invite.

If my hand is worth only an invitation after a voluntary raise and partner's hand is worse than that, then I'm not worth an invitation now. I pass. LHO passes as well and leads the deuce of spades.

	NORTH Robot ♠ 8 7 3 ♥ Q 10 8 4 ♦ J 8 3 ♣ 10 9 5
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ A K J 10 9 ♥ A ♦ A 6 5 4 ♣ 4 3 2

West	North	East	South
Robot	Robot	Robot	Phillip
			1 ♠
2 ♣	Pass	2 ♥	Double
Pass	2 ♠	(All pass)

See? Three small clubs in dummy. We are quite high enough.

I play a low spade from dummy and East plays the queen. He would have ducked with queen fourth, so West has at least one more spade. What else do I know? Assuming West would have led a club from ace-king or king-queen, then East must have the king of clubs. 

What else? The trump lead is strange. Why not a heart? Presumably West would have raised hearts with three and would have led a singleton. So he must have a doubleton. Any doubleton other than jack doubleton would be an attractive lead. Wait. Maybe not. He knows I'm short in hearts from my take-out double, so he expects four hearts in dummy. I've changed my mind. Hearts isn't an attractive lead from any doubleton.

If diamonds are three-three, I can take five spades, a heart, and two diamonds to make this. If not, I need to ruff a diamond in dummy. I'll need to duck two diamonds, and the defense will be able to play two more trumps. So I can't manage a diamond ruff against best defense.

Is there another chance? What if West is 2-2-4-5 with king-queen of diamonds? Then I can lead up to the jack of diamonds twice.

I don't see any reason not to play a diamond right away. I can't think of a likely construction where someone has a singleton diamond. I lead the four of diamonds. West plays the queen; East, the deuce.

West continues with the seven of diamonds. It probably doesn't matter what I play from dummy. But I doubt West led a diamond from the king, so I play low. East plays the ten and I take my ace.

Dummy's eight of spades is high, so I can play another diamond and ruff the fourth round high if necessary. I play the five of diamonds--nine--jack--king. Diamonds were three-three, which is not a surprise. If they weren't, West probably would have continued trumps at trick three.

East shifts to the deuce of hearts. I take the ace, and West follows with the three. Everyone follows to the second round of trumps. We are down to this position with a trump still outstanding:

	NORTH Robot ♠ 8 ♥ Q 10 8 ♦ -- ♣ 10 9 5
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ J 10 9 ♥ -- ♦ 6 ♣ 4 3 2

I could just draw the last trump and concede three club tricks. But the longer I keep the ball in play, the more chances the opponents have to drop it. It can't hurt to play my last diamond and pitch a club from dummy. That lets them ruff my diamond winner, but I get the trick back by ruffing a club in dummy.

I lead my diamond. West discards the six of clubs. I pitch the five of clubs from dummy. East pitches the five of hearts. No one wanted to ruff my diamond. Will they let me score a club ruff now for an overtrick? I play the deuce of clubs--jack--nine--eight. East exits with the king of hearts, which I ruff.

I decided at trick one that East has the king of clubs, so this must be the position:

	NORTH Robot ♠ 8 ♥ Q 10 ♦ -- ♣ 10
WEST Robot ♠ x ♥ -- ♦ -- ♣ A Q x		EAST Robot ♠ -- ♥ J x x ♦ -- ♣ K
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ J 10 ♥ -- ♦ -- ♣ 4 3

If I lead a club, West must find a crocodile coup, rising with the ace to lead the last trump. If he plays the queen, his partner will win with the king and won't have a trump to lead. So I'll cross-ruff the last three tricks. The crocodile coup isn't a sure thing. Rising with the ace is wrong if I have the club king instead of East.

I play the three of clubs. West gets it right. He rises with the club ace and plays a spade. Making two.

	NORTH Robot ♠ 8 7 3 ♥ Q 10 8 4 ♦ J 8 3 ♣ 10 9 5
WEST Robot ♠ 6 4 2 ♥ K 3 ♦ Q 9 7 ♣ A Q J 7 6		EAST Robot ♠ Q 5 ♥ J 9 7 6 5 2 ♦ K 10 2 ♣ K 8
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ A K J 10 9 ♥ A ♦ A 6 5 4 ♣ 4 3 2

Plus 110 is worth 71%. Some Souths overbid and reached three spades.

This deal illustrates a common mistake robots make, which is a natural consequence of their algorithm. At the point West exited with the heart king, he should have played a trump. This would guarantee holding me to eight tricks whatever I held. When he didn't do that, he forced himself to guess who had the club king in the end position. True, it's not a hard guess. I would have bid more if I had it. But there is no upside to putting himself in that position.

The problem is, West didn't see the downside either. Robots search for the best play assuming double-dummy play by both sides thereafter. Double-dummy, it makes no difference whether West exits with a heart or a trump, so he saw no reason to prefer one play over the other.

My favorite example of this flaw is a deal where my robot opponent went down in seven notrump with thirteen top tricks. I led dummy's void, and declarer saw no reason not to pitch a winner from dummy. That meant he now had only twelve top tricks. But, double dummy, he could always take thirteen, because he could finesse either defender for the queen of clubs.