Free Weekly Instant Tournament - September 19 - Board 1

Board 1
Neither side vulnerable

♠ 9 2  ♥ 8 6 5 4  ♦ A Q 10 5 3  ♣ A K

Unsurprisingly, Alex bid and played this hand exactly as I did and for exactly the same reasons. You can watch her analysis on my YouTube channel:

Two passes to me. I open with one diamond, LHO bids one spade, partner bids three diamonds (weak), and RHO bids three spades.

We have a ten-card diamond fit, so the Law says I should compete to the four-level. Even so, I wouldn't compete with no expectation of beating four spades. Four diamonds here is called a "one-under bid." Normally, a player who pre-empts is out of the auction and leaves further decisions to partner. But a bid one under the opponents' game invites him back in. Specifically, it invites him to double if he has good defense for his pre-empt. Since I have three likely tricks on defense, I would be happy to hear partner double.

I bid four diamonds, and LHO goes on to four spades--pass--pass back to me.

Given partner didn't double, should I sacrifice in five diamonds? It seems unlikely that five diamonds will go down three, so it will be a good save if four spades makes.

At IMPs, the answer is clearly "no." I have decent chances to beat this. Even the queen of spades in partner's hand might be enough if declarer decides to hook me for it. And the upside is small even if saving is right. I'm risking eight imps to gain three. So at IMPs, I would pass and hope for the best. At matchpoints, however, some would argue that passing isn't allowed. If I think four spades is 51% to go down, I should double. If I think it's 51% to go make, I should save. Passing, they say, can never be the percentage action.

That argument would hold if it were likely that four spades or five diamonds would be played at every table. And that everyone would take the same number of tricks in those contracts. But that's not necessarily the case here.

For example, if some tables play in three spades making, a five-diamond sacrifice risks more than it stands to gain. If four spades makes, saving picks up half a matchpoint for every pair in four spades or five diamonds. If it goes down, conceding 300 in five diamonds loses half a matchpoint to those same pairs plus a full matchpoint for every pair in three spades. So even if four spades is a slight favorite to make, saving is not the percentage action.

Similarly, if four spades makes five at some tables and we find the defense to hold it to four, a double will have cost more than it stood to gain. If that scenario is possible, a slight chance of beating four spades isn't sufficient to double.

It looks to me like pretty much a toss-up whether four spades makes or not. So I pass. Partner leads the four of diamonds.

	NORTH Robot ♠ A K 10 5 ♥ Q 10 ♦ J 7 ♣ 9 8 7 6 5
	♦ 4	EAST Phillip ♠ 9 2 ♥ 8 6 5 4 ♦ A Q 10 5 3 ♣ A K

West	North	East	South
Robot	Robot	Phillip	Robot
Pass	Pass	1 ♦	1 ♠
3 ♦	3 ♠	4 ♦	4 ♠
(All pass)

I take the ace, dropping declarer's king. We have three top tricks. If partner has queen third of clubs or a heart trick, we can beat this--provided we defend correctly. If partner has queen third of clubs, I must unblock. Give declarer

(A) ♠ Q J x x x  ♥ A K x x ♦ K  ♣ x x x .

If don't unblock, he can strip the hand and endplay me. On the other hand, if partner has the king of hearts, I may need to lead a heart before cashing the clubs. If declarer has

(B) ♠ Q J x x x x  ♥ A x x ♦ K  ♣ Q J x ,

then if I cash clubs and play a heart, declarer can win, draw trump, and pitch both his heart losers on dummy's clubs. It's true hand (B) gives partner

♠ x  ♥ K J x x ♦ x x x x x  ♣ x x x ,

in which case he might have made a negative double. But I, for one, wouldn't. The opponents have the master suit. If we outbid them, it won't be in a four-four heart fit. It will be because we have a massive diamond fit. So three diamonds looks better than a negative double.

How do I decide what to do? Playing with a partner I trust, I would cash the club king. If partner has the heart king, he will discourage, and I'll shift to a heart.

My robot partner is no help, however. I'll have to decide what to do on my own. (A) is more likely than (B) a priori, since it gives declarer a more balanced distribution in the majors. In addition, if partner happens to have the ace of hearts or if he has the king and declarer finesses when I shift, cashing both clubs will result in down two. So cashing clubs looks right.

Next question: What order should I cash my clubs in? If I were hoping for a signal, I would have to cash the king first. Since I intend to cash both of them whatever partner plays, perhaps I should cash the ace first to show my doubleton. But is that really necessary? If I cash two clubs and play a heart to partner, there is nothing for partner to do but return a club and hope I ruff it. He knows a diamond isn't cashing. And a heart return is playing me for the other heart honor, which declarer must have for his four-spade bid. So there is no reason to telegraph my doubleton to declarer. If he's missing the heart king, I want him to think it's safe to finesse. 

I cash the king of clubs--deuce--three--five. Now ace of clubs--jack--four--six. Now the eight of hearts.

Declarer rises with the ace of hearts, draws trump, and concedes a heart trick for down one.

	NORTH Robot ♠ A K 10 5 ♥ Q 10 ♦ J 7 ♣ 9 8 7 6 5
WEST Robot ♠ J 6 ♥ K 9 7 ♦ 9 8 6 4 2 ♣ 10 4 3		EAST Phillip ♠ 9 2 ♥ 8 6 5 4 ♦ A Q 10 5 3 ♣ A K
	SOUTH Robot ♠ Q 8 7 4 3 ♥ A J 3 2 ♦ K ♣ Q J 2

Plus 50 is worth 61%. Declarer didn't even try to make his contract? Why was he so sure the heart finesse was off--and that I had the doubleton club despite my carding? Weirdly, the declarers who were allowed to play three spades did finesse and suffered a club ruff. So everyone who played spades--either three or four--went down one. That seems backwards to me. In three, I would play safe for my contract. You don't want to go down in a partscore when some will be in game. In four, I would try to make it.

How about my double or save decision? If I double, we get 100%. If we save, we get 4%. Since we got well above average for passing, it was right not to flip a coin.